AFL-CIO TO: FROM: SUBJECT: DATE: INTERESTED PARTIES MICHAEL PODHORZER, AFL-CIO POLITICAL DIRECTOR THE STATE OF THE

PRESIDENTIAL RACE IN OHIO 11/1/2012

There are two things that set Ohio apart from all other competitive states in this presidential election. First, Ohio is more industrial than any other presidential battleground state, and union voters typically comprise a larger percentage of the presidential electorate in Ohio than in any other battleground. Second, unlike many battleground states in the southeast (Florida, Virginia, and North Carolina) and Mountain West (Nevada and Colorado), Ohios ethnic composition has not changed much in recent years (its Hispanic population is only 3%). Both of these facts mean President Obamas fate in Ohio, and quite possibly the fate of his presidency, will be determined by working class voters, union and non-union. Its worth noting that our internal polling shows President Obama with 57% of the union vote, approaching the 59% of the vote he received from union voters in 2008 according to the exit polls. Without the union vote, President Obama would be trailing badly in Ohio. Our internal tracking shows that those non-union voters contacted by Working America or Workers voice, who hear the same economic message are favoring the President, doing much to explain why support for President Obama among blue collar voters is much stronger in Ohio than in other parts of the nation. Early in the 2012 election cycle, some political prognosticators argued this years presidential race would be a demographic showdown, a showdown Obama could win by focusing on upscale voters in states like North Carolina at the expense of working class voters in states like Ohio. Despite these predictions, with only days left in the campaign, Ohio is the make or break state of the campaign. According to websites that aggregate results from public polling, President Obama has held a small, but steady lead over former Governor Mitt Romney in Ohio (Obama leads by 2.6% on FiveThirtyEight.com, 2.1% on RealClearPolitics.com, 2.3% in the Huffington Post Pollster model, and 2.2% according to Talking Points Memos Poll Tracker). As a result, more time and energy in the coming days will likely be spent analyzing potential outcomes in Ohio than on the other 49 states combined. However, we believe there are only two questions left to answer in the final week of the campaign and on Election Day: 1. What is Obamas current standing with working class voters in Ohio? 2. Which parts of the state will determine Obamas winning margin, and how? The purpose of this memo is to answer both of these questions and in doing so, explain what we expect to see when Ohio polls close next Tuesday night.

1. WHAT IS OBAMAS CURRENT STANDING WITH WORKING CLASS VOTERS IN OHIO? Obama didnt win white voters nationally or in Ohio in 2008, but he lost them in Ohio by about half as much as he did nationally. According to 2008 exit polling, Obama lost white voters in Ohio by 6% (46%-52%) while losing white voters nationally by 12% (43%-55%). Obama lost white college graduates in Ohio by 1% while losing them nationwide by 4%. He lost those without a college degree by 10% in Ohio compared to 18% nationally. 1

2008 Ohio Exit Polling White College Graduates Whites - No College All White Voters Non-White Total (70% Turnout)

Percent of Electorate 33% 50% 83% 17% 100%

Votes Cast 1,883,755 2,854,175 4,737,930 970,420 5,708,350

Obama 923,039 1,255,837 2,178,876 761,168 2,940,044

49% 44% 46% 78% 52%

McCain 941,877 1,541,254 2,483,131 194,689 2,677,820

50% 54% 52% 20% 47%

Other 18,837 57,083 75,920 14,566 90,486

1% 2% 2% 2% 2%

Current polling indicates Obama is again running better among white voters in Ohio than he is nationally. Romney leads Obama by 21% (59%-38%) in an average of the most recent national tracking polls where responses by race are available:
White Voters in National Surveys PPP (10/26) Gallup (10/16) ABC/Post (10/25) IBD/TIPP (10/27) Average Obama 38% 39% 37% 38% 38% Romney 59% 61% 60% 54% 59% Other/Undecided 3% 0% 3% 6% 3%

Current polling in Ohio shows a much closer race among white voters. Romney leads Obama by only 7% (51%44%) in an average of the most recent Ohio polls where responses by race are available:
White Voters in Ohio Surveys University of Cincinnati (10/31) PPP (10/31) Quinnipiac (10/31) CNN (10/26) ARG (10/26) Time (10/24) SurveyUSA (10/23) Average Obama 43% 46% 45% 44% 44% 43% 44% 44% Romney 51% 50% 51% 53% 52% 49% 49% 51% Other/Undecided 6% 4% 4% 3% 4% 8% 7% 5%

Presidential Support Among White Voters

59%
21% Margin 7% Margin

51% 44%

38%

National Polling Average

Ohio Polling Average

Obama
2

Romney

THE ENDURING EFFECTS OF SENATE BILL 5 Many have speculated as to why Obamas standing with white voters, particularly white working class voters, has had such staying power in Ohio while deteriorating nationally. One cause thats had a clear impact is last years successful referendum to overturn Senate Bill 5, an anti-union law backed by Ohio Republicans. While campaigning in Ohio in October of last year, Romney endorsed Senate Bill 5, saying he was 110 percent in support of the law. Less than a week later, the law was repealed by Ohio voters in a decisive vote of 62%-38%. An election night poll conducted by Hart Research Associates found that white voters supported repeal of SB5 58%-42%, and white working class voters, nearly a majority of those who turned out to vote, supported repeal by an even wider margin of 61%-39%. 2011 Ohio SB5 Referendum White College Graduates Whites - No College All White Voters Percent of Electorate 39% 48% 87% Overturn SB5 54% 46% 61% 39% 58% 42%

Furthermore, the Hart survey found that Romneys endorsement of SB5 made 48% of white working class voters less likely to support him for president: Whites No College 48% 18% 34% White College Graduates 43% 23% 34% All White Voters 46% 20% 34%

2011 Ohio SB5 Referendum Less Likely to Vote for Romney because of his support of SB5 More Likely to Vote for Romney because of his support of SB6 No effect or Unsure

The SB5 referendum galvanized Ohios working class, regardless of whether they belong to a union, against the type of economic policies Romney champions. And over the last year, the AFL-CIO has used every tool at its disposal to remind the more than one million Ohio voters who live in union households, as well as non-union working class voters, of what a Romney presidency would mean for workers and their families. For this reason, support for Obama among union voters in Ohio should be close to 60%, and voters from union households should be expected to make up around 30% of the Ohio presidential electorate. WHERE OHIOS WHITE VOTERS STAND ONE WEEK FROM THE ELECTION Recent polling indicates that the proportion of white and non-white voters in the 2012 Ohio electorate will be similar to 2008, though the proportion of white voters with a college degree will increase by a few points while the proportion without college degrees will decrease. There is reason to believe 2012 turnout will be slightly higher than four years ago due to the closeness of the race and higher Republican enthusiasm compared to 2008. Taking this into account, one can allocate votes and calculate how well Obama must do with various demographic groups in Ohio in order to win the state. As noted earlier, polling averages show Obama losing white voters in Ohio 44%-51% with the remaining 5% either undecided or supporting a third party candidate. In order to illustrate Romneys best case scenario, the table below assumes Romney will pick up additional support from undecided white voters in Ohio, and the final vote will be 44% Obama, 54% Romney, and 2% will support other candidates. When taking education into account, Obama is expected to lose Ohios white college graduates by seven points (46%-53%) and Ohios white voters without a college degree by 12 points (43%-55%). 3

2012 Ohio Projections White College Graduates Whites - No College All White Voters Non-White Total (73% Turnout)

Percent of Electorate Votes Cast 40% 2,293,167 43% 2,465,155 83% 4,758,322 17% 974,596 100% 5,732,918

Obama 1,054,857 1,060,016 2,114,873 760,185 2,875,058

46% 43% 44% 78% 50%

Romney 1,215,379 53% 1,355,835 55% 2,571,214 54% 194,919 20% 2,766,133 48%

Other 22,932 49,303 72,235 19,492 91,727

1% 2% 2% 2% 2%

Obama can win Ohios 18 electoral votes as long as he and his allies keep Romneys margin among white voters to 10% or less, which theyve managed to do up to this point by highlighting the auto industry's recovery, the loss of U.S. jobs to China, Romneys endorsement of Senate Bill 5, and Romneys record at Bain Capital. If Obamas current support levels hold, he can win the state by at least 2% or 109,000 votes, similar to George W. Bushs 2004 margin of 2% or 118,000 votes.

2. WHICH PARTS OF THE STATE WILL DETERMINE OBAMAS WINNING MARGIN, AND HOW? Obama is on track to win a close election in Ohio by minimizing his losses with white voters. Lets take a closer look at where and how Obama will garner his winning margin. FIFTEEN HISTORICALLY DEMOCRATIC COUNTIES Fifteen of Ohios 88 counties have gone to the Democratic nominee in all of the last four presidential elections (1996-2008). These include six of the states eight urban centers: Cuyahoga, Lorain, and Ashtabula (Cleveland) Franklin (Columbus) Summit and Portage (Akron) Montgomery (Dayton) Lucas and Erie (Toledo) Mahoning and Trumbull (Youngstown)

The remaining four counties are Athens, where Ohio University is located and 29% of registered voters are 18-24 years old, as well as Belmont, Jefferson, and Monroe, three small, rural counties on the West Virginia border. Keeping turnout and Obamas margins at or near 2008 levels in these 15 counties is important for an Obama victory.

One part of this strategy is voter registration. Fifty-five percent of the 678,767 new registrants in Ohio since January 1, 2012 are from these counties, more than their share of the statewide voting age population, which is 46%. Forty-eight percent of new registrants are under 30 years old, and 56% are women. Twenty-nine percent are non-white, more than twice the New Ohio Voting Age 14% of Ohioans who over 18 years New Registrants Since January 1, 2012 Registrants Population of age and non-white. Support 55% 46% From Historically Democratic Counties models indicate there are nearly 48% 15% Aged 18-29 three times as many likely Obama voters than likely Romney voters 56% 51% Women among the new registrants. 29% 14% Non-white Another part of this strategy is to highlight how Mitt Romneys economic positions are wrong for Ohio. Tax cuts for the wealthy, cuts to Medicare and Medicaid, outsourcing jobs to China, and letting Detroit go bankrupt are not popular positions in Ohio. The auto industry rescue, one of the Obama Administrations signature achievements, polls particularly well in Ohio, with good reason. Nearly 120,000 Ohioans are employed in manufacturing motor vehicles and parts, and its estimated that almost 848,000 Ohio jobsone in every eight Ohio workersdepend directly or indirectly on the auto industry. While these auto industry jobs are spread across the state80 out of 88 counties have at least one auto industry establishmentabout one-half of the auto jobs are located in 10 counties, the largest of which are Cuyahoga, Lorain, Lucas, Montgomery, and Trumbull. As such, highlighting the auto rescue is a very important part of the Obama strategy, which will help drive up turnout and maximize margins in these historically blue counties. In 2008 Obama came out of the 15 historically Democratic counties with a net 624,249 votes, more than twice his statewide margin of 262,224. If Al Gore or John Kerry had won similar margins in these 15 counties, they would have taken Ohio and the Presidency from George W. Bush.

Democratic Presidential Margin Ashtabula Athens Belmont Cuyahoga Erie Franklin Jefferson Lorain Lucas Mahoning Monroe Montgomery Portage Summit Trumbull Fifteen County Margin Statewide Margin

2008 6,078 10,980 880 258,542 5,716 116,223 76 26,208 69,146 33,854 639 17,318 7,034 47,574 23,981 624,249 262,224
5

2004 3,022 8,151 1,987 226,903 2,824 48,548 1,839 17,767 45,555 34,433 819 4,626 5,092 38,029 25,696 465,291 -118,601

2000 1,891 3,455 3,355 167,814 1,627 2,450 11,852 35,002 28,752 460 4,805 3,175 23,038 22,989 4,156 314,821 -165,019

1996 6,054 6,264 9,492 177,587 4,526 9,190 20,807 46,791 41,319 2,058 20,078 10,502 38,495 30,793 14,383 438,339 288,339

Turnout in these 15 counties is worth monitoring, particularly in Cuyahoga County. In 2008, turnout in the Cuyahoga was 61%, 9% below the statewide turnout rate of 70%. In 2004, Cuyahoga County turnout was 68%, only 3% below the statewide turnout rate of 71%. By most accounts, Kerrys 2004 campaign and his supporters poured an unprecedented amount of resources into the county where more than a third of registered voters are African American. Those expecting to see an increase in turnout and support for Obama in the county in 2008 were surprised to see turnout drop. One possible explanation is the countys Republican voters were less motivated in 2008 and chose not to vote.

County Turnout Relative to Statewide Turnout in 15 Democratic Stronghold Counties

County Ashtabula Athens Belmont Cuyahoga Erie Franklin Jefferson Lorain Lucas Mahoning Monroe Montgomery Portage Summit Trumbull 2008 1.4% -5.4% 1.4% -9.4% 5.7% -3.1% 3.0% 2.5% 0.0% 2.3% 1.3% 2.0% 2.1% 4.0% 2.7% 2004 2.0% -4.0% 5.3% -3.4% 1.3% -8.7% 3.1% 1.0% 2.2% -2.9% 5.4% 1.6% -0.9% 4.6% 6.0% 2000 -2.8% -10.1% -3.3% -5.5% 0.6% -2.3% 0.5% -2.0% -1.2% 1.5% 2.5% 0.3% 0.1% 2.0% 4.3% 1996 -1.6% -7.0% -4.6% -3.7% 1.7% -3.0% -1.7% -2.6% -1.3% 3.4% 0.7% -1.6% -0.5% -0.2% 7.1%

To ensure victory for Obama, his campaign and his allies must minimize the drop off in turnout relative to the statewide rate in Cuyahoga as well as Franklin and Athens counties, and, as was the case in 2008, keep turnout in the other 12 Democratic strongholds at or above the statewide rate.

SEVEN OBAMA SWING COUNTIES Four years ago, Obama not only won the 15 historically Democratic counties, but he also picked up seven more counties, six of which were won by Bush in both 2000 and 2004 (Kerry won Stark County in 2004, but Gore lost it in 2000). In these seven counties, Obama netted an additional 49,474 votes over John McCain. In these same counties, Bush netted 36,619 votes over Kerry in 2004 and 62,164 votes over Gore in 2000. Even if Obama cant repeat his victories in all seven of these counties, he cant afford to let Romney win with margins similar to Bushs in 2000 and 2004. Keeping Romneys margins to a minimum in these counties is of paramount importance.
Democratic Presidential Margin Hamilton Lake Ottawa Sandusky Stark Tuscarawas Wood Seven County Margin 2008 29,683 1,013 1,440 1,410 10,247 1,044 4,637 49,474 2004 -22,937 -3,144 -955 -3,538 3,122 -4,976 -4,191 -36,619 2000 -42,597 -5,250 -432 -2,553 -2,845 -3,670 -4,817 -62,164 1996 -26,035 2,212 2,330 1,514 13,225 1,856 2,665 -2,233

Prior to 2008, a Democratic presidential nominee hadnt won Hamilton County, home to Cincinnati and its suburbs, since LBJs landslide victory in 1964. For more than four decades, Hamilton County, like the rest of Southwest Ohio, was a Republican stronghold. Obama was able to win the county in 2008, largely because of its changing demographics: In 2000, 22% of Hamilton County residents were nonwhite. Today, 34% of residents are non-white, and 30% of registered voters are non-white. The county slowly trended more toward Democrats over the last decadeGore won 42.8% in 2000, Kerry won 47.3% in 2004, and Obama won 53.5%. With Hamilton County expected to account for 6.6% of votes cast statewide, whether the county is won by Obama or Romney largely depends on how many of those votes are cast by non-white 6

voters. A review of ballots already cast (around one-fifth of those expected to vote in Hamilton County have already voted) indicates that as of today, 26% of Hamilton County early voters are non-white. Canton, Ohios eighth largest city, is located in Stark Year Winner Stark Statewide Difference County, long considered a swing county. The county 2008 Obama 52.8% 51.4% +1.4% has supported the winning candidate in four of the last 2004 Kerry 50.8% 48.7% +2.1% five presidential elections, the one exception being 2000 Bush 48.9% 50.0% -1.1% 2004 when the county went for Kerry while Bush won 1996 Clinton 46.4% 47.4% -1.0% the state. As illustrated in the table at right, Stark 1992 Clinton 40.0% 40.2% -0.2% County is usually within 1% of the statewide vote total. The countys economy is primarily industrial and its largest employer is Timken Company, a steel manufacturing company, represented by the United Steel Workers, that produces auto parts. This is precisely the type of place one would expect white working class voters to be most susceptible to populist economic messaging from Obama and his allies. Wood, Ottawa, and Sandusky counties are in the Toledo and Cleveland metropolitan areas along the Ohio Turnpike, and like other counties in the northern tier of the state, they rely heavily on the auto industry for jobs. These three counties have a lot of older white residents that would typically lean toward Romney, but one out of five registered voters over the age of 50 in these three counties lives in a union household. That makes them a challenge for Romney. It should also be noted that Wood County, home to Bowling Green State University, has the second highest percentage of young voters in the state, with 15% of registered voters between the ages of 18 and 24. High turnout in Bowling Green would help Obama win the county. THE REMAINING 66 COUNTIES Finally, Obama will need to eat into Romneys margins in Republican territory just as he did to McCain in 2008. McCain won 66 of 88 counties in 2008, netting 411,499 votesnot enough to overcome Obamas 673,723-vote margin in the other 22 counties. As a point of comparison, Bush won 547,273 net votes in the same 66 counties in 2004. The map at right shows that even though McCain won 66 counties, he underperformed Bush in 76 of 88 counties. In fact, McCains margin declined by 10% or more from Bushs 2004 margin in 22 counties. Romney will likely do better than McCain in most of these counties. But better wont be good enough as long as Obama is able to maximize his margins in the 15 Democratic base counties, win some of the 7 swing counties he won in 2008, and lose the remaining swing counties by less than Kerry did in 2004. Obama and his allies spent much of the year developing a messaging strategy to make Romneys economic policies unpalatable to Ohio voters and block his path to the White House. With only days to go until the election, every indication is that their approach is succeeding. 7