Table of Contents

WHAT IS CLIMATE AND CHANGE? ...............................................................................................................................2 WHAT IS CLIMATE CHANGE?.............................................................................................................................................2 WHY IS CLIMATE CHANGING?..........................................................................................................................................3 WHAT ARE THE GREENHOUSE GASES?...............................................................................................................................3 WHAT CHANGES WILL OCCUR IN THE TEMPERATURE?............................................................................................................4 WHAT ARE THE EFFECTS AND IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE?...............................................................4 A) Environmental / Ecological ..............................................................................................................................5 B) Social / Economical ........................................................................................................................................5 Some startling facts................................................................................................................................................7 MAPS.....................................................................................................................................................................................8 HOW TO SOLVE IT?.......................................................................................................................................................11 MITIGATION OF CLIMATE CHANGE....................................................................................................................................11 WHAT MEASURES CAN BE TAKEN TO COPE WITH CLIMATE CHANGE SPECIFICALLY?...................................................................12 WHAT HAVE WE ALREADY DONE?....................................................................................................................................12 BIBLIOGRAPHY..............................................................................................................................................................13 THE ECONOMICS AND POLITICS OF CLIMATE CHANGE (REVIEW BY CRISPIN TICKELL)............................................................13

Climate Change
What is climate and change?
It is important to recognize the difference between weather and Climate . Weather is the temperature, precipitation (rain, hail, sleet and snow) and wind, which changes hour by hour and day by day. Climate is the average weather and the nature of its variations that we experience over time. Weather and climate are closely related but it is more difficult to predict weather which can vary daily than to predict changes in climate which are made using long term average weather and changes in atmospheric composition. Even if we experience a colder period of weather this can still mean that the climate is heating up as there are always cooler periods of weather in a warmer climate.

Change is difference in some particular thing. It is a transformation,

alteration or a re-action as a result of any action.

What is climate change?

a change of climate that is directly or indirectly related to human activity that alters the composition of the global atmosphere and which is in addition to natural climate variability over comparable time periods. This is often called global warming but it is better to think of it as climate change because it is likely to bring about more extreme events floods, storms, cyclones, droughts and landslips rather than an increase in temperature alone. Every country will be affected differently but the one constant is a changing climate.
It is

Why is Climate Changing?

Climate change is being caused by the Greenhouse Effect which occurs naturally and without it life on earth would be very cold with an average temperature of -19C instead of +14C. Greenhouse gases gather above the earth and form the equivalent of a pane of glass above the lower atmosphere. This traps some of the heat from the sun that would otherwise return to outer space. The image below describes how the Greenhouse Effect occurs.

Since the industrial revolution human activity has been gradually added to these naturally occurring gases, creating a thicker layer of gas causing more heat to be trapped in the atmosphere.

What are the Greenhouse Gases?

The main greenhouse gases responsible for this Greenhouse Effect are water vapor (H2O), carbon dioxide (CO2), methane and nitrous oxide.

What changes will occur in the temperature?

The most recent scientific assessment by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) estimates that the global averaged surface temperature on Earth will increase by 1 to 3.5C (about 2 to 6F) by the year 2100, with an associated rise in sea level of 15 to 95 cm (about 6 to 37 inches).

What are the effects and impacts of climate change?

There is growing global consensus that climate change is humankinds greatest threat in modern times and is likely to have profound consequences for socio-economic sectors such as health, food production, energy consumption and security and natural resource management.

The effects of climate change in Pakistan can be divided into two natures

A) Environmental / Ecological
Increase in the mean sea level (1-2mm per year over the last century); especially around Keti Bunder in Sindh 2. Retreat of glaciers; 3. Decrease in snow cover 4. Freshwater availability is also projected to decrease which will lead to biodiversity loss and reduce availability of freshwater for the population. 5. Loss of plant and animal ranges; (Vulnerable species include Snow Leopard and Markhor) 6. Deteriorating Water Quality 7. Birds breeding seasons and emergence of insects; 8. Glacier melt in the Himalayas is projected to increase flooding and will affect water resources within the next two to three decades. This will be followed by decreased river flows over time as glaciers recede and will follow long term drought and extreme cases of desertification 9. Coastal areas bordering the Arabian Sea in the south of Pakistan will be at greatest risk due to increased flooding from the sea and in some cases, the rivers.
1.

B)

Social / Economical

(Social and Economical effects are the direct or indirect results of environmental effects) 1.
2.

Loss of agricultural land and thus production Low agricultural yield due to high temperatures and uncertain weather contributing massively towards increasing poverty in rural areas 3. The impact of climate change will also aggravate the existing social inequalities of resource use and intensify social factors leading to instability, conflicts, displacement of people and changes in migration patterns. 4. Floods in urban areas may create pressure on infrastructure
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5.

Less production of Hydroelectricity due to less flow in rivers 6. Endemic morbidity and mortality due to diseases primarily associated with floods and droughts are expected to rise. Increases in coastal water temperatures would exacerbate the abundance of cholera.

This one picture summarizes all the effects of climate change on Pakistans environment and economy

Some startling facts

Pakistan is among the top twelve countries on the climate change hit list. (ADB) It is assumed that sea levels in this region will rise up to 70 cm. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has recently established a clearer human induced link to the growing climate changes we witness in the world today. There is now increasing evidence that the current extreme events like Tsunami and recent three major storms in Philippines in just 5 weeks claiming more than 1100 lives are the human effects on climate. Having its economy based on agriculture, Pakistan is facing major challenges of climate change on its land and water resources, consequently on agriculture and food security. There are chances of decline in yields from 9 to 30% if global temperature rises by 1 to 4 C. Glaciers are receding due to rise in global temperatures causing floods but later the water resources shall deplete which will adversely affect the agricultural produce. Arid and semiarid regions of Sindh and Balochistan are experiencing severe droughts (1996-2003). This is evident from the fact that rainfall has decreased 10-15% in coastal belt and hyper arid plains over the past 40 years, while there is an increase in summer and winter rains in northern Pakistan. Crops cannot sustain frequent weather changes and this is going to reduce crop yields to the extent up to 50%. Population is growing at 2.69% per annum While the crop productivity is expected to decline due to climate change. This challenges our food security plans and deserve immediate action to avert poverty and food shortage. The fragile ecosystem of coastal belt is under severe threat due to climate change. Fourteen cyclones are recorded from 1970 to 2001 on Sindh coast. Mangrove forests have declined from 260,000 hectares in 1970 to just 86,000 hectares, in Sindh (95%) and Balochistan (5%) coast. Mangroves absorb 70-90% of wave energy and effectively stop sea encroachment in deltaic region. The sea has encroached in Indus delta spoiling around 2 million fertile land in districts Badin and Thatta. The fact is that Pakistan is not a polluter, yet it is on to list of 12 countries to be among the hard hit countries due to climate change. More over that warmer temperature will alter the established pattern and timing of runoff. Snow pack is expected to decrease at least 25% by the year 2050; snow lines will fall at higher elevations, and more precipitation will fall in
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the form of rain. The current runoff pattern from the Sierra Nevada generally focuses on the spring and summer when the snow pack melts; water is stored during this time, and is then delivered later in the year. Climate change will transform this established, slow-paced pattern into behavior that is erratic, uncertain, and variable. The frequency of violent winter floods will increase

Maps

This map illustrate that major agricultural areas of Pakistan will receive summer monsoon later than the usual which will have dire consequences on the food production of the country. As Monsoon play a vital part in the agricultural system and provide an important input to the crops and also significantly increasing total water storage of the country

Future Change in Summer Monsoon Precipitation

It is evident from the figure that most of the Indus plains will receive less rainfall over the coming years which will prove to be very adverse to the agricultural production of the country on which nearly half of Pakistans labor force depend and also which constitute 1/4th of Pakistans GDP.

Areas comprising Pakistan will experience increased temperatures ranging from 0.8C -1.2C, which will prove disastrous to the agricultural balance that is based on a complex combination of temperature, soil and water availability.

-50 %

-15 %

0%

15 %

35 %

Projected changes in agricultural productivity by 2080 due to climate change,

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How to Solve it?

Mitigation of climate change
Mitigation means taking actions to tackle the causes of climate change. In other words, it means taking measures to reduce the emission of Greenhouse Gases (GHGs) into the atmosphere and halting the global warming trend.

Climate Change is a Global Problem requiring Global Solutions

Climate change cannot be separated from the challenges of economic globalization, energy and resource depletion, poverty reduction, social imbalances and security. Each problem interacts with the others in complex ways. Partial solutions will not solve the problems that threaten future sustainability. Governments are now trying to negotiate new measures to try to mitigate (reduce the causes) and adapt to expected climate change. This is not easy because we shall need to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 80% or more by 2050. The only real solution to climate change is to leave the fossil fuels in the ground and find other renewable sources of energy to replace them. This will require a complete transformation in the technological basis of industrial society, greatly increased efficiency in energy use, and a major reduction in consumption among the wealthy while responding to the needs of the poor. No one is ready for such a transformation, but there is great urgency as scientists say we may have only about 10 years to change the whole direction of society before the damage becomes irreversible.

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What measures can be taken to cope with climate change specifically?

Pakistan cannot itself affect climate change and may depend on the international community to take some significant measures to reduce this effect but it must do its best to protect its citizens from the adverse effects of high temperatures and improve their living.
Some measures it can do so are:

Increase access to high quality information about the impacts of climate change 2. Improving technological responses by setting in place early warning systems and information systems to enhance disaster preparedness 3. Practicing energy efficiency through changes in individual lifestyles and businesses 4. Reducing the vulnerability to livelihoods to climate change through infra-structural changes 5. Promoting good governance and responsible policy by integrating risk management and adaptation 6. Developing new and innovative farm production practices, including new crop varieties and irrigation techniques 7. Improving forest management and biodiversity conservation 8. Empowering communities and local stakeholders so that they participate actively in vulnerability assessment and implementation of adaptation 9. Mainstreaming climate change into development planning at all scales, levels and sectors
1.

What have we already done?

Pakistan has still not taken the phenomenon very seriously. Even in the Copenhagen talks this month Pakistan is siding with other developing countries to stop the international community from agreeing upon a certain high Emission Cut targets. India and China one of the worlds largest emitters of GHGs also hold this point of view citing that economic backwardness may rise if harsh targets are imposed and they may have to compromise on their economic growth thus depriving their people of opportunities to develop.

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Bibliography
http://www.lead.org.pk/cc/ http://www.pakspectator.com/pakistan-climate-change/ http://www.dawn.com/wps/wcm/connect/dawn-content-library/dawn/news/sci-tech/07kashmiri-glaciers-shrinking-at-alarming-speed-ha-09 The Economics and Politics of Climate Change (Review by Crispin Tickell) http://www.mangroveactionproject.org/news/current_headlines/climate-change-inketi-bunder-pakistan/?searchterm=dams http://www.sevenoaks.gov.uk/environment/climate_change/3989.asp http://www.dawn.com/wps/wcm/connect/dawn-content library/dawn/news/pakistan/metropolitan/16-pakistan-may-face-exceptional-climatechange-hs-09 http://www.mfe.govt.nz/publications/climate/preparing-for-adapting-climate-changejul07/page1.html http://www.bcca.org/ief/climate/climate_what.html http://maps.howstuffworks.com/world-annual-precipitation-map.htm http://baydelta.wordpress.com/2009/09/20/bay-delta-levees-climate-change-andwater-quality/

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