BAYESIAN ANALYSIS OF THE LOW RADIOACTIVITY

MEASUREMENTS
A. DRAGI, V. UDOVII, R. BANJANAC, D. JOKOVI, I. ANIIN* and J. PUZOVI*
Institute of Physics, Belgrade, Serbia and Montenegro, yokovic@phy.bg.ac.yu
*Faculty of Physics, University of Belgrade, Serbia and Montenegro

ABSTRACT
Spectra contents of the low radioactivity measurements were determined using Bayesian
inference. The method was performed on the simulated spectra, and on the spectra of
samples with low counting rates, acquisited by X-ray spectrometer in the low-level
underground laboratory. Results of the analysis were compared with results of standard
APTEC program for spectra analysis.
Keywords: Bayesian inference, parameter estimation, spectra analysis.

1. Introduction
Bayesian inference is often used in estimating the amplitude of a signal in the presence of a
background. Simple, idealised situation is represented with background being constant in all range and
the signal of interest being Gaussian shaped line with known position of a peak in spectrum x0 and
width . Parameters to be derived are background magnitude B and amplitude of the peak A. In
general, the x axis is divided in channels and in ideal case the datum in k-th channel is

Dk = n0 Ae ( xk x0 )

/ 2 2

+ B , where n0 is a constant related to time of measurements etc. In real case

count in each channel is randomly Poisson distributed number Nk related to Dk as in eq. 1:

prob( Nk | A, B, I ) =

( Dk ) N

e Dk
Nk!
k

(1)

Bayes theorem for this spectral analysis is

prob( A, B | {Nk}, I ) prob({Nk}| A, B, I ) prob( A, B | I ),

(2)

where prob( A, B | I ) is the prior probability distribution function; it is a constant for A0 and B0,
and equal to zero otherwise. A set of experimental data is involved through the likelihood function
prob({Nk}| A, B, I ). It modifies the prior function to the posterior probability distribution function
prob( A, B | {Nk}, I ); its logarithm L is a function of A and B via Nk and Dk:
M

L = ln[prob(A,B|{Nk},I)] = const +

[ N ln( D ) D ] ,
k =1

(3)

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where M is a number of data. The derivation of latter equation may be found in [1]. Maximum of the
posterior function Lmax for variables A and B gives the best estimated values of A and B.

2. Analysis of the simulated spectra

In order to check a method of Bayesian inference performed on the experimental data, it has been used
in analysis of one simulated spectrum containing a line with a known position and width with a
background, and in analysis of one spectrum with no line, only background. These simulated spectra
were created by Poisson and Gaussian generators.
The first spectrum has a length of 300 channels, with a Gaussian line located in channel x0=100 and
width
=6 and with a background mean value B=4. The second spectrum has 2000 channels and
background magnitude B=6. First, the background was created by a Poisson random number generator
that calculates a random number of counts for each channel using a background magnitude B as mean
value in the Poisson distribution. Second, in the first spectrum a Gaussian random number generator,
embedded in Delphi, was used to calculate a random channel number for a Gaussian distribution with
a mean value equal to position of line and with a sigma equal to line width. The content of this
generated channel number then was increased by one count. This procedure was repeated for 100
times, 100 being a number of counts in the line. The two simulated spectra are shown in fig. 1.
Poisson =4
Gauss x0=100

18

18
16

Gauss =6
Chan num = 300
Net count = 100

16

Chan Num = 2000

Mean Value = 6

14

14

12

12

Count

10

Count

10
8

8
6

0
0

50

100

150

200

250

300

500

1000

Channel

Channel

a)

b)

1500

2000

Fig. 1. Simulated spectra with a) line in 100th channel, b) no line.

The program for Bayesian analysis, wrote in Delphi, then was applied on these simulated spectra. It
gave posterior probability distribution function L as a function of A and B and the best estimated
values of the amplitude A0 and the background B0 as coordinates of maximum Lmax of the posterior
function. These posterior functions are displayed using contours, which are lines joining points of
equal probability density. Lmax lies in the narrowest contour. The contours of the posterior functions for
simulated spectra are shown in fig 2. The picture on the left in fig 2. is a result of Bayesian inference
of the contents of spectrum that contains line. Likewise, the picture on the right in fig 2. refers to the
spectrum with no line. In the spectrum 1a one line was found, with peak amplitude and background
magnitude lying in interval of the narrowest contour. No line was found in the spectrum 1b, but
background magnitude is approximately 7.1. For confidence level of 67 %, where are A = A0 and
B = B0 , error bars are defined by L = Lmax

1
[1]. Difference between neighbouring contours
2

is 0.25; two contours around Lmax determine error bars for C.L. of 67 %

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7.5

5.500

7.4

5.375

7.3

5.250

7.2

Background

Background

5.125
5.000
4.875

7.1
7.0

4.750

6.9

4.625

6.8

4.500
5.25

6.7
5.50

5.75

6.00

6.25

6.50

6.75

7.00

0.5

7.25

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

Amplitude

Amplitude

a)

b)

Fig 2. Contours of the posterior probability distribution function for simulated spectra.

Table 1. presents results of the Bayesian method applied on simulated spectra with error bars. Here,
peak integral is calculated as N = 2 A0 . Peak integrals calculated by Bayesian analysis of the
simulated spectra are as they are expected to be (95 8, 0.00.4), but background level is little
higher; perhaps the Poisson generator adds a few more counts than assumed.
Table 1. Results of Bayesian inference of the simulated spectra.

Background
magnitude (counts)

Peak amplitude
(counts)

Peak integral
(counts)

Spectrum 1a.

5.15(5)

6.3(5)

95(8)

Spectrum 1b.

7.1(5)

0.0(4)

0.0(4)

3. Analysis of the low counting rates spectra

a)

b)
Fig 3. Spectra of low activity samples.

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The low counting rates spectra were acquisited by X-spectrometer in the low-level background
laboratory measuring the uranium originated activity of natural samples. The activity was determined
by observing the line of 63.3 keV in U-238 spectrum. Such two spectra are shown in fig 3. The relative
activities were calculated using APTEC program; net count of the 63.3 keV line in each spectrum is of
interest. The same spectral line was analysed by Bayesian inference with peak in bin 312 (63.3 keV)
and width 1.14 (0.54 keV); part of the spectrum containing only this line (bins 291 to 340) was
analysed. The posterior probability distribution functions are shown in fig 4. (fig 4a refers to fig. 3a
and fig. 4b refers to fig. 3b). It can be seen that the line was found in both spectra. Comparative net
counts calculated by the Bayesian and APTEC analysis are presented in table 2; the results are similar.
Also, as a criterium of validity of program for the Bayesian inference, ratio of net counts spectrum 3a
vs. spectrum 3b are same for both the Bayesian and APTEC analysis.

18

14
17

13

16

Background

Background

15
14
13

12

11

10

12
11

10
25

30

35

40

18

45

20

22

24

26

28

30

32

34

36

Amplitude

Amplitude

a)

b)

Fig 4. Contour of the posterior probability distribution function for spectra of low counting rates.
Table 2. Results of Bayesian inference of the low counting rates spectra.

Background
magnitude (counts)

Peak amplitude
(counts)

Peak integral
(counts)

Peak integral by
APTEC (counts)

Spectrum 3a

13.5(7)

32(5)

91(14)

80(20)

Spectrum 3b

11(5)

26(4)

74(11)

65(17)

Work has been partially financed by Ministry of Science, Technologies and Development of the
Republic of Serbia, project no. 1461.

4. References
[1] D. S. Sivia, Data Analysis A Bayesian Tutorial, Clarendon Press, Oxford, 1997.

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