Arnold Schwarzenegger Governor

REVIEW OF INTERNATIONAL EXPERIENCE INTEGRATING VARIABLE RENEWABLE ENERGY GENERATION

Prepared For:

California Energy Commission

Public Interest Energy Research Program

Prepared By:

EXETER
ASSOCIATES, INC

April 2007 CEC-500-2007-029

PIER PROJECT REPORT

Prepared By: Exeter Associates, Inc. Kevin Porter Columbia, Maryland Commission Contract No. 500-02-004 Commission Work Authorization No: MR-017 Prepared For:
Public Interest Energy Research (PIER) Program

California Energy Commission

Michael Kane, Dora Yen-Nakafuji, Ph.D. Contract Manager Dora Yen-Nakafuji, Ph.D. Project Manager Elaine Sison-Lebrilla, P.E. Manager Energy Generation Research Office Martha Krebs, Ph.D. Deputy Director ENERGY RESEARCH & DEVELOPMENT DIVISION B.B. Blevins Executive Director

DISCLAIMER
This report was prepared as the result of work sponsored by the California Energy Commission. It does not necessarily represent the views of the Energy Commission, its employees or the State of California. The Energy Commission, the State of California, its employees, contractors and subcontractors make no warrant, express or implied, and assume no legal liability for the information in this report; nor does any party represent that the uses of this information will not infringe upon privately owned rights. This report has not been approved or disapproved by the California Energy Commission nor has the California Energy Commission passed upon the accuracy or adequacy of the information in this report.

Acknowledgments
TheCaliforniaEnergyCommissionsPublicInterestEnergyResearchprogramfundedthework describedinthereport.TheauthorsthankDoraYenNakafujiandtheCaliforniaWindEnergy Collaborativeteamfortheirtechnicalsupport.TheauthorsalsothankThomasAckermanofthe RoyalInstituteofTechnologyinSweden;BrendanKirbyofOakRidgeNationalLaboratory; BrianParsonsandMichaelMilliganoftheNationalRenewableEnergyLaboratory;Jim BlatchfordandDavidHawkinsoftheCaliforniaIndependentSystemOperator;J.CharlesSmith oftheUtilityWindIntegrationGroup;HanneleHolttinenoftheVTTTechnicalResearchCenter inFinland;BernhardErnstoftheRheinischWestflischesElektrizittswerkAktiengesellschaft (RWE)TransmissionSystemOperatorinGermany;AlbertoCenaofAsociacinEmpresarial Elica(AEE)inSpain;LucyCraigofGarradHassaninSpain;DaveOlsenofWestWindWires; MarkAhlstromofWindLogicsInc.;TomMillerofPacificGasandElectric;AbrahamEllisof PublicServiceCompanyofNewMexico;andJohnKehleroftheAlbertaElectricSystem Operatorforansweringnumerousquestionsandprovidingusefulinsights.Anyremaining errorsoromissionsareourown.

Pleasecitethisreportasfollows: KevinPorter,ChristinaMuddandMichelleWeisburger.2007.ReviewofInternationalExperience IntegratingVariableRenewableEnergyGeneration.CaliforniaEnergyCommission,PIER RenewableEnergyTechnologiesProgram.CEC5002007029.

Preface
ThePublicInterestEnergyResearch(PIER)Programsupportspublicinterestenergyresearch anddevelopmentthatwillhelpimprovethequalityoflifeinCaliforniabybringing environmentallysafe,affordable,andreliableenergyservicesandproductstothemarketplace. ThePIERProgram,managedbytheCaliforniaEnergyCommission(EnergyCommission), conductspublicinterestresearch,development,anddemonstration(RD&D)projectstobenefit theelectricityandnaturalgasratepayersinCalifornia. ThePIERprogramstrivestoconductthemostpromisingpublicinterestenergyresearchby partneringwithRD&Dorganizations,includingindividuals,businesses,utilities,andpublicor privateresearchinstitutions. PIERfundingeffortsarefocusedonthefollowingRD&Dprogramareas:

BuildingsEndUseEnergyEfficiency EnergyInnovationsSmallGrants EnergyRelatedEnvironmentalResearch EnergySystemsIntegration EnvironmentallyPreferredAdvancedGeneration Industrial/Agricultural/WaterEndUseEnergyEfficiency RenewableEnergyTechnologies Transportation

ReviewofInternationalExperienceIntegratingVariableRenewableEnergyGenerationisthefinal reportforasubtaskofTask3forthePIERIntermittencyAnalysisProject(IAP),contract number50002004,workauthorizationnumberMR017,conductedbytheIAPteamcomprised oftheCaliforniaWindEnergyCollaborative,ExeterAssociates,BEWEngineering,DavisPower Consulting,andGEEnergyConsulting(withassistancefromAWSTruewind,National RenewableEnergyLaboratory(NREL),OakRidgeNationalLaboratory(ORNL),andRumla Consulting).TheinformationfromthisprojectcontributestoPIERsRenewableEnergy Technologiesprogram. FormoreinformationonthePIERProgram,pleasevisittheEnergyCommissionswebsiteat www.energy.ca.gov/pierorcontacttheEnergyCommissionat(916)6545164.

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Table of Contents
Acknowledgements .................................................................................................................................... i Preface..........................................................................................................................................................ii ListofTables ............................................................................................................................................... v ListofFigures ............................................................................................................................................vi Abstract .....................................................................................................................................................vii ExecutiveSummary ................................................................................................................................... 1 1.0 Introduction ................................................................................................................................. 19 1.1. WorldwideWindandSolarCapacity................................................................................... 22 2.0 WindIntegrationStudiesintheUnitedStatesandWorldwide .......................................... 27 2.1 SummaryofVariousAssessmentsoftheImpactsofWindonReserves ........................ 29 2.2 SummaryofEstimatedCostImpactsforAdditionalReservesfromWindEnergy....... 31 2.3 UnitCommitmentImpacts..................................................................................................... 36 2.4 WindandNaturalGasStorage.............................................................................................. 37 2.5 ChangestoReserveService.................................................................................................... 37 2.6 ImplicationsforCalifornia ..................................................................................................... 38 3.0 MarketStructureandCapacityCredit..................................................................................... 39 3.1 MarketSchedulingandBalancingRequirements............................................................... 39 3.2 ResourceDelivery(CapacityCredit) .................................................................................... 40 3.3 ImplicationsforCalifornia ..................................................................................................... 43 4.0 OperationalIssuestoDate......................................................................................................... 45 4.1 MinimumLoad ........................................................................................................................ 45 4.2 Ramping.................................................................................................................................... 46 4.3 TransmissionRatingandGenerationOverflow ................................................................. 51 5.0 MitigationandOperatingSolutionsToDate.......................................................................... 53 5.1 WindForecasting..................................................................................................................... 53 5.2 GridCodes................................................................................................................................ 59 5.2 WindTurbineModelingandVerification............................................................................ 64 5.4 DemandResponse ................................................................................................................... 67 5.5 Storage....................................................................................................................................... 67 5.6 WindPowerCurtailment ....................................................................................................... 68 5.7 TransmissionPlanningandDevelopment........................................................................... 70 6.0FindingsandImplicationsforCalifornia ....................................................................................... 73 6.1 AncillaryServices .................................................................................................................... 73 6.2 WindForecasting..................................................................................................................... 74 6.3 Transmission ............................................................................................................................ 74 6.4 ActiveManagementofWindGeneration ............................................................................ 75 6.5 FlexibleGeneration.................................................................................................................. 75 6.6 Storage....................................................................................................................................... 76 6.7 DemandResponse ................................................................................................................... 76 7.0 Conclusion ................................................................................................................................... 77 7.1 BenefitstoCalifornia ............................................................................................................... 79

References......................................................................................................................................81 iii

Appendix A Review of International Experience Integrating Variable Renewable Energy Generation. Appendix A: Denmark Appendix B Review of International Experience Integrating Variable Renewable Energy Generation. Appendix B: Germany Appendix C Review of International Experience Integrating Variable Renewable Energy Generation. Appendix C: India Appendix D Review of International Experience Integrating Variable Renewable Energy Generation. Appendix D: Spain

iv

List of Tables

Table ES-1. Examples of wind power penetration levels, 2005 ..................................................... 2 Table ES-2. Reserve definitions in Germany, Ireland and the United States ................................. 3 Table ES-3: Estimated ancillary service costs from various wind integration studies in the United States ..................................................................................................................... 6 Table ES-4. Examples of wind capacity credit methods in the United States................................ 9 Table ES-5. Examples of wind grid codes.................................................................................... 12 Table 1. Examples of wind power penetration levels, 2005 ......................................................... 20 Table 2. Global wind energy capacity by country, 2006 .............................................................. 23 Table 3. Twenty largest grid-connected photovoltaic systems..................................................... 25 Table 4. Reserve definitions in Germany, Ireland, and the United States .................................... 28 Table 5. Estimated ancillary service costs from various wind integration studies in the United States ..................................................................................................................................... 33 Table 6. Estimated financial impacts on the Public Service Company of Colorados gas supply due to wind generation variability and uncertainty............................................................... 37 Table 7. Market closing times in various electricity markets ....................................................... 39 Table 8. Factors positively and negatively affecting the capacity credit of wind power.............. 41 Table 9. Examples of wind capacity credit methods in the United States.................................... 43 Table 10. Estimated capacity credit of various renewable energy technologies as compared to a medium-sized gas plant......................................................................................................... 44 Table 11. Overview of operational short-term wind power forecast models in Europe............... 54 Table 12. Examples of wind grid codes........................................................................................ 60 Table 13. Power control requirements for wind turbines ............................................................ 62 Table 14. Summary of performance tests and results for the Woolnorth Wind Farm.................. 66

List of Figures

Figure ES-1. Range of findings of additional reserve costs from wind generators ...................... 4 Figure ES-2. Estimated increase in reserve requirements from wind from various studies in Europe ..................................................................................................................................... 5 Figure ES-3. Capacity credit values................................................................................................ 8 Figure ES-4. Frequency control requirements by selected country.............................................. 13 Figure 1: Worldwide PV installations in 2005 (MW) .................................................................. 24 Figure 2. Range of findings of additional reserve costs from wind generators .......................... 32 Figure 3. Estimated increase in reserve requirements from wind from various studies in Europe ............................................................................................................................................... 34 Figure 4: Capacity credit values ................................................................................................... 42 Figure 5: Simulated hourly wind generation changes in New York, 200103............................. 48 Figure 6: Estimated total wind ramping requirements in California 2002 ................................... 50 Figure 7: Estimated solar ramping requirements in California - 2002 ......................................... 51 Figure 8: Frequency control requirements by selected country.................................................... 63 Figure 9: Proposed transmission projects in the West .................................................................. 72

vi

Abstract
ThisreportsummarizestheexperienceintheUnitedStatesandinternationallythrough2006 withintegratingvariablerenewableenergygeneration,primarilywindgeneration,and discussespotentialoperatingandmitigationstrategiesforincorporatingvariablerenewable energygeneration.Initially,winddevelopmentinEurope,particularlyinDenmarkand Germany,consistedofsmallerbutnumerouswindprojectsinterconnectedtothedistribution grid,incontrastwithlarger,utilityscalewindprojectsinterconnectedtothetransmissiongrid intheUnitedStates.ThedifferencesbetweenEuropeandtheUnitedStatesarestartingto narrowasdevelopmentofvariablerenewableenergygeneration(e.g.windandsolar)increases andaswinddevelopmenttakesplaceinmorecountries.Inaddition,asmoreutilityscalewind projectsemerge,morecountriesarerelyingoncommonstrategies,suchasgridcodes,tohelp integratevariablerenewableenergygeneration.ThisreportisapartoftheIntermittency AnalysisProject(IAP),acomprehensiveprojectaimedatassessingtheimpactofincreasing penetrationofvariablerenewableenergygenerationinCalifornia.Areviewoftheinternational experiencewillprovideperspectiveandinsighttotheIAPanalysisteamonvarioustechniques formanagingintermittency. Keywords:windintegration,solarvariability,windforecasting,variablerenewableenergy generation,windforecasting,transmission,VARsupport,reserves,ramprates,gridcode, ancillaryservices.

vii

viii

Executive Summary
Introduction Californiasrenewablepolicytargetsof20percentrenewableenergyby2010and33percentby 2020arelikelytobemetwithsignificantamountsofvariablerenewableenergygenerating resourcessuchaswindandsolarpower.Theanticipatedgrowthintheserenewablesourcesis challengingdecisionmakerstolookathowtheCaliforniagridwillaccommodatethese resources.Someanswersarefoundbyexamininginternationalexperience,wherewind developmenthasbeengrowingsteadilyforseveralyears,andsolargeneratingcapacityis accelerating.Bytheendof2006,over74gigawatts(GW)ofwindpowercapacityhasbeen installedworldwide,withtwothirdsofthatinEurope.Bytheendof2005,aboutfiveGWof gridconnectedsolarpowerisinstalledworldwide,withoverhalfofthatcapacitylocatedin Germany. Purpose Althoughtherearenumerousstudiesestimatingpotentialwindintegrationcoststhatrelyon modelsandpowersimulations,thereislittleinformationthatprovidesactualexperiencewith increasinglevelsofvariablerenewableenergygeneration.Thisreportwilldiscussresultsfrom bothactualexperienceandstudiesthatrelyonmodelsandsimulations,andwillattemptto distinguishbetweenthosetwothroughoutthedocument.Thisreportispartofthe IntermittencyAnalysisProject(IAP)andisfundedbytheCaliforniaEnergyCommissions PublicInterestEnergyResearch(PIER)Program.TheIAPisacomprehensiveanalysisproject aimedatassessingtheimpactofincreasingpenetrationofvariablerenewableenergygeneration inCalifornia.Areviewoftheinternationalexperiencewillprovideperspectiveandinsightto theIAPanalysisteamonvarioustechniquesformanagingintermittency.TheIAPwillmodel fourscenariosofincreasinglevelsofvariablerenewableenergygeneratingresources,and assessthepotentialgridimpactsandproposemarketandoperationstrategiestomitigate impacts,ifanyareidentified. MarketPenetration Worldwidewindcapacityismorethan74GWbytheendof2006,withEuropeaccountingfor twothirdsofthatcapacity.Germanyhasthemostinstalledwindcapacitywithover20GW, followedbySpain(11GW),theUnitedStates(11GW),India(6GW)andDenmark(3GW).By energycontribution,Denmarkistheworldleader,withover18percentofitsenergycoming fromwind.Someregionswithincountrieshaveevengreaterpenetrationsofwindpower,as indicatedinTableES1. Germanyaccountsformorethanhalfoftheworldsinstalledsolarcapacity,withtheUnited StatesandJapanthenextleadingcountries.Thereislessgridexperiencewithsolarcapacityas thereiswithwindpower,inpartbecauselargergridconnectedsolarfacilitiesarejustnow comingonline.Ofthe20largestsolarfacilitiesintheworld,onlyfourwereinstalledbefore 2004.Forthatreason,thisreportwillmostlyfocusonwindpower.

Table ES-1. Examples of wind power penetration levels, 2005

Country or region Installed wind capacity (MW) 3,128 18,428 2,275 10,028 Total installed power capacity (MW) 7,488 124,268
_________c

Western Denmark Germany: Schleswig-Holstein Spain

69,428

Average annual penetration levela (%) ~23 ~5 ~28 ~8

Peak penetration levelb (%) >100 n.a. >100 ~25%

Island systems: Swedish island of 90 No local generation ~22 >100 d Gotland in normal state n.a. = Not available a Wind energy production as share of system consumption b Level at high wind production and low energy demand, hence, if peak penetration level is >100% excess energy is exported to other regions. c German coastal province d 2002 data. The island of Gotland has a network connection to the Swedish mainland.
Source: Adapted from Soder, Lennart and Ackerman, Thomas (2005). Wind Power in Power Systems: An Introduction, In T. Ackerman (Ed.), Wind Power in Power Systems (pp. 25-51). England: John Wiley and Sons, Ltd. Updated and adapted by the author. Reproduced with permission.

MarketOperations Europeusesdifferentterminologyindescribingtheancillaryservicesnecessarytomaintain gridreliabilitythantheUnitedStates(TableES2).InEurope,primaryreservesassistwiththe shortterm,minutetominutebalancingandcontrolofthepowersystemfrequency,andis equivalentintheUnitedStatestoregulation.SecondaryreservesinEuropetakeoverfor primaryreserves10to30minuteslater,freeingupcapacitytobeusedasprimaryreserves. LongertermreservesinEuropearecalledtertiaryreservesandareavailableintheperiodsafter secondaryreserves.Sincewearefocusedoninternationalexperiencewithintegratingvariable renewableenergygeneration,wewillusethetermsprimaryandsecondaryreservesforthis report. Todate,gridreliabilityhasbeenmaintainedaswindandsolarcapacityhasbeenincorporated. Thelargestimpactofwindappearstobeonsecondaryreserves.Windhashadlittleeffecton primaryreserves,asthevariationsinwindpowerarerandom.Whenaggregatedwithloadand generationvariations,thevariationsfromwindpowertendtobesmallorcanceleachotherout. Sofar,Denmark,GermanyandSpainhavenotchangedtheamountofprimaryreserves requiredtomaintainsystemreliability,andwindintegrationstudiesconductedinGermany andtheUnitedStudieshavealsofoundthatonlysmallamountsofadditionalregulating reservesarerequired.

Table ES-2. Reserve definitions in Germany, Ireland and the United States
Long-term Medium-term Reserves reserves n/a Secondary Minute reserve: reserve: available available within 15 minutes, within 5 minutes, released by called by transmission transmission system operator system operator from supplier Primary operating n/a Secondary Tertiary reserve: available operating reserve: response: from within 15 seconds operates over 90 seconds (inertial response/ timeframe of 15onwards fast response) 90 seconds (dynamic or static reserve) Regulation horizon: Load-following horizons: 1 hour within Unitincrements 5- to 10 -minute 1 minute to 1 hour commitment with 1- to 5-second increments (intra-hour) and several horizon: 1 day to hours (inter-hour) 1 week with 1hour time increments Short-term reserves Primary reserve: available within 30 seconds, released by transmission system operator

Germany

Ireland

United States

Source: Gul, T. and Stenzel, T. 2005. Variability of Wind Power and Other Renewables: Management Options and Strategies. Paris: International Energy Agency

Includingbothprimaryandsecondaryreservecosts,itappearsthatthecostofintegratingwind islessthan$6/MWhatenergypenetrationlevelsofupto20percent(FigureES1).Caution shouldbeusedininterpretingFigureES1,asthestudiesemploydifferentmethodologies,data, timescales,andtools.Forexample,theE.OnNetzdatainFigureES1measuresreserve impactsofwindonadayaheadbasis,whileotherstudiesmeasurereserveimpactsduringthe hour;theresultsillustratethatwindcannotbeforecastedasaccuratelyonadayaheadbasisas onetotwohoursahead. Factorsthataffectwindintegrationcostsinclude:

Howthevariabilityinwindgenerationinteractswiththevariabilityinelectricity demand Thegeographicconcentrationofwindprojects Howfarinadvancethepowerschedulesmustbesubmittedtosystemoperators.

1 16 11 14 12 Reserve cost ($/MWh) 10 8 6 4 2 6 0 0 1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41 43 45 13a 10 7 9b 9a 13b 3 1 5 2 8 12b 12a 4 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9a 9b 10 11 12a 12b 13a 13b

Intermittent generation level penetration level (% of total system energy)

Country 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9a 9b 10 11 12a 12b 13a 13b

UK Nordic UK UK Ireland Ireland Denmark UK Spain Spain UK Germany Denmark Denmark Scotland Scotland

Comments
Lower bound estimates based on analysis from NEMCO (Australia), Lewis Dale of National Grid, SCAR Study and Millsborrow 2002 Based on data collected in Finland, Sweden, Norway and Denmark Dale, Milborrow SCAR, PIU studies Based on modeling efforts Numbers derived from analysis of international experience, specifically, Denmark, US (BPA) Study conducted for Sustainable Energy Ireland, estimates based on modeling analysis Actual costs to Eltra, Danish grid operator Estimates based on the technical standards of the National Grid Company Low market costs of procuring the difference between predicted and actual generation High market costs of procuring the difference between predicted and actual generation Estimates based on 2001 market data for imbalances Figures derived from analysis of E.On Netz study Low estimate based on Nord Pool balancing market (2002 prices High estimate based on Nord Pool balancing market (2002 prices) National Grid estimates for balancing costs with 10 % penetration of wind in the UK, as reported to the Scottish Parliament National Grid estimates for balancing costs with 20 % penetration of wind in the UK, as reported to the Scottish Parliament

Reference
Mott MacDonald, 2003. Holttinen, 2004. Dale et al 2003. Ilex & Strbac, 2002. Millborrow, 2004. Ilex et al, 2004. Pedersen et al, 2002 Milborrow, 2001a Fabbri et al, 2005. Fabbri et al, 2005. Dale, 2002 Milborrow, 2005a Ackerman et al, 2005 Ackerman et al, 2005 National Grid Transco, 2004 National Grid Transco, 2004

Figure ES-1. Range of findings of additional reserve costs from wind generators
Source: Adapted from Gross, Robert; Heptonstall, Philip; Anderson, Dennis; Green, Tim; Leach, Matthew; and Skea, Jim. (2006). The Costs and Impacts of Intermittency. London: United Kingdom Energy Research Center. Available at http://www.ukerc.ac.uk/content/view/258/852. British currency converted to U.S. $ using a conversion of $1.8717 per British pound, as of May 25, 2006. Denmark 2002 from Ackerman, Thomas; Morthorst, Poul Erik. 2005. Economic Aspects of Wind Power in Power Systems. In T. Ackerman (Ed.), Wind Power in Power Systems (pp. 384-410). England: John Wiley and Sons, Ltd. National Grid numbers from National Grid Transco. 2004. Submission to the Enterprise and Culture Committee: Renewable Energy in Scotland Inquiry. Available at www.scottish.parliament.uk.. Sustainable Energy numbers from Sustainable Energy Ireland. 2004. Operating Reserve Requirements as Wind Power Penetration Increases in the Irish Electricity System. Available at http://www.sei.ie/uploadedfiles/InfoCentre/IlexWindReserrev2FSFinal.pdf. See Reference for details.

Submittingschedulesclosertotherealtimemarketwillallowformoreaccuratepredictionsof windgeneration,althoughsometradeoffsareinvolved.Havingashorterperiodoftimebefore thestartofrealtimemarketoperationsmayleadtoaneedformoreflexibleoperatingreserves, orperhapshighercostsfromtheincreasedstartingandstoppingofconventionalunits.The shorterperiodsoftimemaynotallowsufficienttimetochangeunitcommitmentdecisionsfor conventionalgeneratingunits.Thisproblemcanbesimplyaddressedwithawindplant scheduleupdate. FigureES2illustratestheestimatedpercentageincreaseinreservesfromwindfromseveral windintegrationstudiesinEurope.Themethodologydifferssignificantlybystudy,making theseresultsnotdirectlycomparable.Forexample,thedenastudyinGermanyestimated reserverequirementsonadayaheadbasis,whiletheUnitedKingdomandSwedenstudies estimatedreserverequirementsfourhoursahead.Theotherstudiesestimatedtheimpacton reservesfromwindvariabilityduringtheoperatinghour.Generally,FigureES2suggeststhat anincreaseinreservesislikelywithhigherlevelsofwindpenetration.
Increase in reserve requirement
10 % Incr ea se a s % o f wi n d cap a city 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 0% 0% 5% 10 % 15 % 20 % 25 % Wind penetration (% of gross demand) Nordel: SE, NO, FI, DK Finland Sweden Irela nd UK Sweden 4 hours ahead dena Germany

Figure ES-2. Estimated increase in reserve requirements from wind from various studies in Europe
Source: Holttinen, Hannele, Pete Meibom, Antje Orths, Frans Van Hulle, Cornel Ensslin, Lutz Hofmann, John McCann, Jan Pierik, John Olav Tande, Ana Estanqueiro, Lennart Soder, Goran Strbac, Brian Parsons, J. Charles Smith and Bettina Lemstrom. Design and

Operation of Power Systems with Large Amounts of Wind Power: First Results of International Energy Agency Collaboration. Global Wind Power Conference, Adelaide,
Australia. September 18-21, 2006. http://www.ieawind.org/AnnexXXV/Meetings/Oklahoma/IEA%20SysOp%20GWPC2006%20 paper_final.pdf. (accessed November 8, 2006).

WindintegrationstudiesconductedintheUnitedStateshaveoftenfocusedonunit commitment,thetimeframewheregeneratorsarecommittedinadvancetomeetexpected demand(TableES3).Thisiswhereimprovementsinwindforecastingarelikelytohavethe greatestimpact.Ingeneral,theEuropeanstudiesdidnotfocusasmuchonunitcommitment issues.

Table ES-3: Estimated ancillary service costs from various wind integration studies in the United States
Study Wind Penetration (%) 3.5 20 7 0.06-0.12 4 29 4.3 16.6 4 15 10 15 Regulation $/MWh Load Following $/MWh 0.41 1.64 0.28 0.70-2.80 0.09 0.15 NA NA NA 0 NA NA Unit Commitment $/MWh 1.44 3.00 1.00-1.80 N/A 0.69 1.75 NA NA NA 4.37 3.32 3.32 Gas Supply Cost ($/MWh) NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA 1.26 1.45 Total $/MWh

UWIG/Xcel PacifiCorp BPA/Hirst PJM/Hirst We Energies I We Energies II Great River Energy I Great River Energy II CA RPS Phase III MN DOC/Xcel Xcel-PSCo Xcel-PSCo

0 0 0.19 0.05-0.30 1.12 1.02 NA NA 0.46 0.23 0.20 0.20

1.85 4.64 1.47-2.27 0.75-3.10 1.90 2.92 3.19 4.53 NA 4.60 3.72 4.97

Sources: Parsons, Brian, et al: Grid Impacts on Wind Power Variability: Recent Assessments from a Variety of Utilities in the United States. Paper given to Nordic Wind Power Conference, May 22-23, 2006, Finland; and Smith, J.C.; DeMeo, E.; Parsons, B.; and Milligan, M. Wind Power Impacts on Electric-PowerSystem Operating Costs: Summary and Perspective on Work to Date. March 2004. Presented to the American Wind Energy Conference, Chicago, Illinois. www.nrel.gov/docs/fy04osti/35946.pdf. (accessed June 2, 2006).

AlthoughpresentoperatingpracticesinEuropehavesuccessfullyintegratedwindpower, currentinitiativesindicatethatchangesmaybenecessaryasmorewindpowercomesonline. Amongotherinitiatives:

TheEuropeanTransmissionSystemOperators(TSO),theassociationoftransmission systemoperatorsinEurope,isconductingaEuropewidewindintegrationstudy,with resultsdueby2008. TheInternationalEnergyAgency(IEA)issponsoringanannex,DesignandOperation ofPowerSystemswithLargeAmountsofWindPowerProduction,thatbeganin mid2006.

InAsia,thesituationisdifferentinChinaandIndia,asthelackofgridinfrastructureseverely handicapsnotonlywinddevelopmentandoperationsbutalsotheeconomyasawholeinboth countries.

CapacityCreditofWind AreviewofvariousstudiesestimatingthecapacitycreditofwindpowerinEuropeindicated thatwindhasacapacitycreditgreaterthanzero,andalsothatthecapacitycreditdecreasesas thelevelofwindgenerationrises.ThesefindingsareillustratedinFigureES3.Capacitycredit studiesforwindintheUnitedStateshavenotgenerallymeasuredthecapacitycreditofwind versusthemarketpenetrationofwind.Instead,thesestudieshavefocusedmoreonthe methodsandmechanicsofdeterminingthecapacitycreditforwind.Avarietyofapproaches havebeenusedintheUnitedStatesfordeterminingthecapacitycreditofwind,rangingfrom determiningtheequivalentloadcarryingcapabilityofwind;usingaproxyvalue;applyingthe capacityfactorofwindduringpeakdemandhours;andusingthecapacityvalueofwind duringafractionofthetoppeakdemandhours(TableES4). AswithFigureES1,cautionshouldbeusedininterpretingFigureES3andTableES4,as differentstudymethodologies,assumptionsanddatawereusedinseveralofthesestudies. OperatingIssuestoDate MinimumLoad:Definedsimply,minimumloadisthesmallestamountofloadonthegrid duringadefinedperiodoftime.Windproductionmaycoincidewithtimesofminimumload andaddtosystemchallengesinmanagingthegrid. WindintegrationinDenmarkandGermanyhasbeeneasedconsiderablybytheextensive interconnectionsthetwocountrieshavewithneighboringcountries.AttimesinDenmark, hourlywindproductioncanexceedloaddemand,andconventionalpowerplantshaveto reducetheirproductionuntilthesupplyanddemandbalanceisrestored.Ontheseoccasions, spotpricesmaydroptozero,asoccurredfor83hoursinDenmarkin2003.GeneralElectrics windintegrationstudyfortheNewYorkStateEnergyResearchandDevelopmentAuthority (NYSERDA)foundthatminimumloadisnotasignificantissuewith10percentwind penetration,asNewYorkisanenergyimporterwithoutwindandremainsanimporterwith wind. Californiahasthepotentialforminimumloadissues.Theseissuesinclude:

MustrunqualifyingfacilitycontractsunderthePublicUtilityRegulatoryPoliciesAct. Increasedprocurementofcombinedcyclenaturalgasprojectsthatoperatebaseloadand aroundtheclock.1

1Anotherpotentialneartermcontributortominimumloadissuesisthearoundtheclockenergy procurementcontractsthattheCaliforniaDepartmentofWaterResourcessignedduringtheelectricity crisisof2000and2001.However,thesecontractsexpirebetween2009and2011,likelybeforevariable renewablesmayreachhighlevelsofmarketpenetrationinCalifornia.

40

Capacity Credit (% of installed intermittent generation capacity)

35

1
30 25 9 20 15 10 5 0
0 1 3 5 7 9 15 17 19 21 29 31 33 35 11 13 23 37 25 27 39

2 3 4
2 4 6 1 5 7

5 6 7 8 9

Intermittent generation penetration level (% of total system energy)

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Country Ireland UK Germany UK UK N. Europe UK Germany UK Comments Estimate of capacity credit values for an island system Estimates based on analysis from a three different sources, Central Electricity Generating Board, National Grid, and System Costs of Additional Renewables (SCAR Report) Dena project steering group Examines the CEGB and SCAR reports and adjusts them for greater penetrations of wind Based on modeling Estimates based on reanalysis data collected from operating wind facilities Early assessment of capacity of wind projects in the UK E. On Netz Study Commissioned by UK Government Reference Watson 2001 Mott MacDonald 2003 Dena 2005 Dale, et al., 2003 Ilex and Strbac, 2002 Giebel, 2000 Grubb 1991 E. On Netz 2005 Sinden 2005

Figure ES-3. Capacity credit values

Source: Adapted from Gross, Robert; Heptonstall, Philip; Anderson, Dennis; Green, Tim; Leach, Matthew; and Skea, Jim. (2006). The Costs and Impacts of Intermittency. London: United Kingdom Energy Research Center. Available at http://www.ukerc.ac.uk/content/view/258/852. See Reference for details.

TheCaliforniaIndependentSystemOperator(CAISO)notedthatminimumloadconditionscan beexacerbatedinAprilandMaywhenhydroelectricitygeneration,consideredmusttake, increasesbecauseofsnowmeltandwhenwindgenerationcorrespondinglyisatahighlevelas well.

Table ES-4. Examples of wind capacity credit methods in the United States
Region/Utility CA/CEC PJM ERCOT MN/DOC/Xcel GE/NYSERDA CO PUC/Xcel RMATS PacifiCorp MAPP PGE Idaho Power PSE and Avista SPP Method ELCC Peak Period 10% ELCC ELCC ELCC Rule of thumb ELCC Peak Period Peak Period Peak Period Peak Period Note Rank bid evaluations for RPS (low 20s) Jun-Aug from 3 p.m.-7 p.m., capacity factor using 3year rolling average (20%, fold in actual data when available) May change to capacity factor, 4 p.m.-6 p.m., Jul (2.8%) Sequential Monte Carlo (26-34%) Offshore/onshore (40%/10%) PUC decision (30%) and Current Enernex study possible follow-on, Xcel using MAPP approach (10%) in internal work 20% all sites in RMATS Sequential Monte Carlo (20%) Monthly 4-hour window, median 33% (method not stated) 4 p.m.-8 p.m. capacity factor during July (5%) PSE will revisit the issue (lesser of 20% or 2/3 Jan C.F.) Top 10% loads/month; 85th percentile

Source: Milligan, Michael, and Kevin Porter (2005). Determining the Capacity Value of Wind: A Survey of Methods and Implementation. Golden, CO: National Renewable Energy Laboratory. Available at www.nrel.gov/docs/fy05osti/38062.pdf.

Ramping:Attimes,windgenerationcanrampupanddownquickly,particularlyinresponseto storms.Ingeneral,rampingeventsareofmoreconcerntosmaller,weakergridswithfew externalinterconnectionsandgridswithlargeconcentrationsofwindprojectsinoneregion. Gridswiththesefeaturestypicallydonothaveadeepstackofgeneratingresources, connectionstootherregionsorthelargegeographicdiversityofwindresourcestomanage rampingevents.Forthisreason,theTSOsthathaveproposedorimplementedrampinglimits onwindturbineshavetendedtobesmallergridsorgridswithfewexternalinterconnections. OneexceptionisinGermany,wheretheTSOslimitthepositiveramprateofwindgenerationto 10percentofratedpowerperminute.Someexamplesincludethefollowing:

EirGridinIrelandlimitsthepositiveramprateto130MWperminute Scotland,wherethepositiveramprateislimitedto110MWperminute,dependingon thecapacityofthewindproject,andthedownwardramprateto3.3percentofpower outputperminute TheAlbertaElectricSystemOperatorhasproposedlimitingsystemwiderampratesfor windprojectsto4MWperminute.

TheIAPwillassesstherampingimpactsofvariableresourcesontheCaliforniagrid.Asastate, CaliforniahasarelativelydeepresourcestackandinterconnectionswiththePacificNorthwest andtheSouthwest.Californiaisnotintheextremesituationasislandsorsmallergrids.In2006 theCaliforniaWindEnergyCollaborative(CWEC),underaconsultingagreementtotheEnergy Commission,examinedrampingcapabilityintheCAISObasedonpubliclyavailabledata. CWECdeterminedthattheCAISOhadsufficientrampingcapabilitytoaccommodateload variabilityandcurrentlevelsofvariablerenewableenergygeneration. TransmissionRatingandUnscheduledGeneration:Attimes,thecombinationofwindfrom DenmarkandGermanycanresultinunscheduledpowerflowsontheEuropeantransmission grid,especiallyduringtimesofhighwindproductionandlowdemand.Thelackofsufficient northtosouthtransmissioninGermanyresultsinwindgenerationfromNorthernGermany beingtransmittedtocustomersinSouthernGermanyviathetransmissionnetworksofthe Netherlands,BelgiumandFrance. In2005theElectricPowerGroup(EPG),underconsultingagreementtotheEnergy Commission,suggestedthatthefrequencyresponseofgeneratingresourcesinCaliforniaand throughouttheWesternElectricityCoordinatingCouncil(WECC)hasdecreasedinrecentyears becauseofseveralgeneratingresourcesoperatingatbaseloadwithlimitedupwardcapability. That,inturn,couldleadtoreducedtransmissionpathratingsintoCaliforniaandthroughout WECC.Furthermore,theEPGfoundthatasignificantresourceshifttomorerenewable resourcesinWECC,withoutcorrespondingattentiontothethermalcapabilityofgenerators, voltagesupport,andhowgeneratorsperformduringcontingencyevents,couldcompoundthis issue.Theimpact,ifany,wouldarisemostlikelyduringnonpeakhours. MitigationandOperatingSolutionstoDate Severalstrategieshavebeenproposedandimplementedtointegratevariablerenewableenergy generation,primarilywind.Theseincludewindforecasting,gridcodes,curtailment,wind turbinemodelingandverification,demandresponse,andtransmissionplanningand development. WindForecasting:Ingeneral,windgenerationcanbepredictedmoreaccuratelythecloserit occurstoactualoperation.Windgenerationcanbepredictedwithabout90percentorgreater accuracyonehourahead,with70percentaccuracyninehoursaheadbutonlyabout50percent accuracy36hoursahead.Themeanabsoluteerrorbyinstalledcapacityforwindforecastingin Denmarkistypicallybetween8and9percent,whichisequivalenttoa38percentforecasterror byenergy.InGermany,therootsquaremeanerror(RSME)ofwindforecastsis5to8percentof installedwindcapacitywithmaximumerrorsrangingfrom30to40percentofinstalledwind capacity.OnafourhouraheadbasisinGermany,theRSMEis3.8percent,withamaximum errorrangingfrom28to36percent. Contributorstowindforecastingerrorsincludephaseerrors,whichoccurwhenwind forecastspredictstorms.Inpractice,thestormmayoccurafewhoursaheadorfewhours behindthewindforecast.Anothercontributortowindforecastingerrorsistherelativelylow spatialandtemporalqualityofmeteorologicaldata.Mostforecastinghasbeenfocusedon

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weatherattributessuchasprecipitationandtemperature,withalowerspatialandtemporal resolutionthanisrequiredforwindgeneration.Manybusinessandgovernmentalentitiesare becominginterestedinfiner,morepreciseforecasting,andthatinturnmaycorrespondto betterdataforimprovingwindforecasting. In2002,theCAISObecamethefirst,andtodatetheonly,regionaltransmissionoperatorinthe UnitedStatestooffercentralizedwindforecastingtopredicttheoutputofvariablerenewable energygeneration.TheParticipatingIntermittentResourceProgram(PIRP)isvoluntary.To date,onlywindgenerationisenrolledinPIRP,althoughwithseveralproposedlargescalesolar projectsinCalifornia,itispossiblethatsolarwilljoinwindinthePIRPprogram.InPIRP,the positiveandnegativeimbalancesassociatedwiththe10minuteschedulesofwindpower generatorsarenettedoutandsettledonamonthlybasis,withthenotionthattheseimbalances willcanceloutoverthemonth.Anynetimbalancesattheendofthemonth,positiveor negative,aresettledattheweightedaveragezonalmarketclearingprice.TheCAISOisallowed tochargepenaltiesforexcessivedeviationsofageneratorcomparedtoadvanceschedulesbut doesnotatthistime.IftheCAISOchargesthispenalty,participatingintermittentresourcesin PIRPwouldbeexempt. Initially,PIRPwashandicappedbymissingtelemetrydatacausingvariationsinthewind forecast;however,mostofthistypeoferrorhasbeencorrected.Therearesomemarket participantconcernsregardingthereallocationofcostsfromwhichparticipatingintermittent resourcesareexempt.TheCAISOisexploringmakingseveralenhancementsandchangesin hopesofreducingthesecostconcerns.Theseenhancementsincludeincreasingtheforecasting feesforbeinginPIRPandsubjectingpowerexportsfromparticipatingintermittentresourcesto higherfees.InDecember2006,theFederalEnergyRegulatoryCommission(FERC)approved theCAISOspetitiontochargeanexportfeetoPIRPfacilitiesthatexportpoweroutofthe CAISOcontrolarea. GridCodes:Acommonapproachtakenbymanytransmissionsystemoperatorstoincorporate wind,istoadoptgridcodesspecifictowindgenerators.Germanyintroducedtheirwindgrid codein2003,followedbyDenmarksTSOsinlate2004.Britain,Ireland,andtheUnitedStates havesincefollowedwithwindgridcodesin2005. Theintentistoensurethatwindprojectsdonotnegativelyimpactreliability.Alargeamountof windcapacitytrippingofflineinresponsetoagriddisturbancecouldleadtoafallinvoltage and/orfrequency.That,inturn,couldcontributetoothergeneratorstrippingoffthegridand couldresultinnothavingenoughgenerationtomeetload.Thegridcodeshaveemergedona transmissionoperatororcountrybasis,anddifferencesbetweenthegridcodeshavenaturally resulted.Todate,windspecificgridcodeshaverequiredwindpowerfacilitiestoaddressone ormoreofthefollowingconditionsto:

Ridethroughgridfaults IncreaseordecreasepowergenerationattheTSOsrequest Supplyreactivepower Adjustpowergenerationinresponsetofrequencychanges

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Controlorlimitrampingincreases.

Generally,allwindgridcodeshaveafaultridethroughrequirementspecifyingthatwind generatorsmuststayconnectedforaperiodoftimewhenfaultsoccuronthetransmission systemandvoltagedrops.AsindicatedinTableES5,faultridethroughrequirementsdifferby country.

Table ES-5. Examples of wind grid codes

Grid Code Fault Duration (Milliseconds) 100 150 625 140 500 150 Voltage Drop During Fault (% Nominal) 25 0 15 0 20 0* Voltage Recovery (Milliseconds) 1000 1500 3000 1200 1000 NA

Denmark Germany(E.On) Ireland(EirGrid) UK(NGT) Spain UnitedStates

*As of 2008. For 2007 and for normally cleared three-phase faults, wind turbines must be able to ride through voltages down to 15 percent at the point of interconnection for 150 milliseconds. Source: Milborrow, David. 2005b. Going Mainstream at the Grid Face. Windpower Monthly, September 2005, p. 49. Reproduced by permission. United States provisions drawn from Federal Energy Regulatory Commission. December 12, 2005. Order No. 661-A. Interconnection for Wind Energy.

Asmallernumberofcountriesalsorequirewindturbinestoprovidefrequencyresponsein ordertomaintainthefrequencyat50Hz(thelevelinEurope).Windturbineshavealimited abilitytoprovidefrequencycontrolascomparedtoconventionalunits.Tomeetthis requirement,windturbinesmustbeoperatedatlessthanfulloutput,suchthatbladepitchcan beadjustedtoincreasegenerationwhencalledupon.Thisisanoptiononnewerpitch controllableturbines.Irelandrequireswindgeneratorstoprovideprimaryfrequencycontrolof 35percentofpoweroutputandtoprovidesecondaryfrequencycontrolifcalledupon. DenmarkandtheUnitedKingdomrequirewindgeneratorstoprovidefrequencycontrolaftera systemfaultorifpartofthegridisisolated.Similarly,transmissionsystemoperatorsarealso requiringwindgeneratorstostayonlineduringfrequencydeviations,asindicatedinFigure ES4. Gridcodesalsogenerallyrequirewindturbinestooperatecontinuouslyatratedoutputin normalvoltageranges,tostayonlineduringvoltagechangeswithinaspecifiedrange,andto supplyreactivepower.Forinstance,E.OnNetzinGermanyrequireswindturbinestocontinue tosupplyreactivepowerforuptothreesecondsafteravoltagedrop.Sweden,Norwayand Spainalsohaveprovisionsforwindturbinesandreactivepower.

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Figure ES-4. Frequency control requirements by selected country

Source: Van Hulle, Fran. 2005. Large Scale Integration of Wind Energy in the European Power Supply. Brussels, Belgium: European Wind Energy Association. Available at http://www.ewea.org/fileadmin/ewea_documents/documents/publications/grid/051215_Grid_ report.pdf.

IntheUnitedStates,FERCadoptedagridcodein2005forwindturbines.AWECCtaskforceis alsoconsideringpossiblechangestoWECCscurrentlowvoltageridethroughstandardto lowertheminimumvoltagetoleranceperiodtozeroatthepointofinterconnectionfor12cycles (about1/5ofasecond). WindTurbineModelingandValidation:Acommonissuewithwinddevelopmentistheneedto improvethemodelingofwindprojectsfordeterminingthepotentialimpactsonsystem reliabilityduringtheevaluationofinterconnectionapplications.Lackofknowledgeby transmissionsystemoperatorsaboutwind;theincreasingsizeofwindprojects;andtheoften weaktransmissionnetworkthatwindprojectswereattemptingtointerconnecttohavemade interconnectionmodelingachallenge.TheWECCWindGeneratorModelingGroupis preparingwindturbinegeneratormodels.InEurope,continuedgrowthofwindenergyinsome countriesmaybeconditionedonnotonlyresolvinguncertaintiesaboutthegridimpactsof windturbinesbutalsoontheavailabilityofvalidatedanalyticaltoolsandmodels.ESBin Irelandhasinstitutedcertificationrequirementsforwindturbinemodelstobeusedinsystem interconnectionstudiesaspartofIrelandsgridcode. DemandResponse:Demandresponsemayhelpintegratelargeramountsofwindpowerby movingconsumptionfromwhenwindproductionislowtotimesofhigherwindproduction,

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therebylesseningtherequirementforreservesfromconventionalpowerplants.Oneexample researchedinDenmarkistouseelectricityproductionfromwindgenerationduringoffpeak hoursfordistrictwaterheatinginsteadofotherfuels.Sofar,participationindemandresponse programshasbeenrelativelysmallinEuropeandintheUnitedStates,althoughregulatoryand industryinterestisgrowing.Californiahassettargetsforutilitiestomeet3percentofitsannual peakdemandwithdemandresponse,increasing1percentperyearto5percentby2007and favorsdemandresponseandenergyefficiencyoverotherresourcesinmeetingnewelectricity demand. WindPowerCurtailment:Maximumwindproductioncanbeseveraltimeslargerthanaverage windproduction,meaningthatat20percentwindpenetrationbyenergy,windproductionmay equalconsumerdemandforsomehours.Curtailmentofwindgenerationmaybenecessaryif theamountofwindgenerationataspecifictimeismorethanwhatthegridcanreliablyhandle. Infact,forgridswithsmallcontrolareasthataredominatedbythermalgenerationthatmaynot beveryflexible,windcurtailmentscouldoccuratpenetrationsaslowas10percent. InNorthernGermany,E.OnNetzimplementedcurtailmentpolicies,orgeneration managementasdescribedbyE.OnNetz,forwindgeneratorsintheSchleswigHolsteinregion inmid2003,covering700MW(about1/3ofthewindcapacityinthatregion),andexpandingit toLowerSaxonyin2005.Ifoverloadconditionsarepresent,E.OnNetzidentifiestheregionof concernandsendsasignaltowindprojectstoadjustoutputaccordingly,definingthe maximumactiveoutputthattheregionswindprojectscanprovidetothegrid.Untilnew transmissioncapacityisadded,E.OnNetzwillnotinterconnectnewwindprojectsin SchleswigHolsteinunlessthewindgeneratorsparticipateinE.OnNetzsgeneration managementprogram.Spainalsocurtailedwindgenerationin2004whenwindpower penetrationexceeded12percentofdemand,duetolocalgridlimitations.Thesewind curtailmentsoccurredlessfrequentlyin2005. TransmissionPlanningandDevelopment:Stronggridinterconnectionshaveplayedapartin helpingDenmarkmanageitshighlevelofwindproduction.Ingeneral,though,thereislimited interconnectionbetweennationalandregionalelectricitymarketsinEurope,andcurrenttrans countryinterconnectionscanbeheavilyloaded.TheInternationalEnergyAgencypredictsthat $1.8trillionoftransmissionanddistributioninvestmentsarenecessaryby2030simplytomeet demandgrowthandtoupgradeexistingassetsinEurope.Californiahasextensive interconnectionswiththePacificNorthwestandwiththeDesertSouthwest,andthestateis workingonnewtransmissionthatwillbenecessaryifCaliforniaisgoingtomeetits20percent RPSby2010.Anumberoftransmissionplanningactivitiesareoccurringbothinsideand outsideofCalifornia.InAugust2006,theCAISOBoardofGovernorsapprovedtheSunPath projectthatwilladd1,000MWoftransmissioncapacitytoSouthernCaliforniaprovidingaccess togeothermalandsolarresourcesintheImperialValley.TheCAISOBoardofGovernorsis consideringproposedtransmissionprojectsinTehachapiandtheLakeElsinoreAdvanced PumpStorage(LEAPS)project.OutsideofCalifornia,morethanadozentransmissionprojects havebeenproposed,withsomeoftheseproposalstargetingCaliforniaastheultimatemarket. Manyoftheseproposalsareataveryearlystage,andnotallofthemmaybeconstructed.

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Conclusions NearlytwothirdsoftheworldswindinstalledcapacityisinEurope,withGermany,Spain, andDenmarkaloneaccountingforonehalfoftheworldsinstalledwindcapacity.Wind developmentinEurope,atleastinitially,differedfromthelargerutilityscaleprojectsinthe UnitedStates,particularlyinDenmarkandGermany,wherewinddevelopmentconsistedof smaller(butnumerous)windprojectsinterconnectedtothedistributiongrid.Thattypeofwind developmentinDenmarkandGermanytookadvantageofthegeographicdiversityofwind resourcestosmoothsomeofthevariabilityinwind. SimilarmanagementstrategiesbetweentheUnitedStatesandEuropehavebeguntoemergeas winddevelopmenthasexpandedtoothercountrieswithlessrobustgridinfrastructure,as comparedtoDenmarkandGermany,andaswinddevelopmenthastendedtowardsutility scaleprojectsthatarecommonintheUnitedStates.Theimplementationofgridcodes(although varyinginspecificsfromcountrytocountry)isonesuchexample.Theneedfortransmissionin bothEuropeandtheUnitedStates,notjustforwindgenerationbutforalltypesofgeneration, isanothersimilarity.Considerabletransmissionplanningandactivityisunderwayinboth EuropeandtheUnitedStates. Theparticularcircumstancesineachcountry,stateorregionwilldeterminetheeaseof integratingvariablerenewableenergygeneration.Thesefactorsincludethegeneratingmix;the flexibilityofresourcesinmix;whethertherearerobustdayaheadmarketswithdeepresource stacks;thelocationofwindresources;transmissionavailability;andthesizeofcontrolareas. Windintegrationwillalmostcertainlybemorechallenginginsmallcontrolareas,inareaswith limitedinterconnections,orinareaswithasmallloadand/orsmallresourcestacksascompared toregionswithlargercontrolareas,extensiveinterconnectionsorlargeloadsand/ordeep resourcestacks.Becausethesecircumstancescanvarydramatically,cautionshouldbeusedin comparingcountriesorregionswitheachother. Thisreportexaminedhowcountriesoverseashaveincorporatedvariablerenewableenergy generation,whatoperatingstrategieshavebeenusedtointegratevariablerenewableenergy generation,whatlessonshavebeenlearned,andwhetherthatexperienceistransferableto California.Foravarietyofreasons,thereportfocusedmostlyonwind,giventhatthereismore gridconnectedwindcapacityworldwidethansolar;theexperiencewithwindismorewidely reported;andthedevelopmenttodateofsolarsystemshasbeenofsmall,distributedsystems and,atleastasofnow,doesnotfacethesamesystemintegrationissuesaswindpower. Somehighlightsofintegrationstrategiesandfindingsfromvariouscountryreportsinclude:

Strategiesimplementedtoincorporatewindincludewindforecasting,gridcodes, curtailment,windturbinemodelingandverification,demandresponse,and transmissionplanninganddevelopment. Todate,gridcodeshavefeaturedthesemajorthemes:requiringwindturbinestoride throughgridfaults;increasingordecreasingpowergenerationattheTSOsrequest; supplyingreactivepower;adjustingpowergenerationinresponsetofrequencychanges; andcontrollingorlimitingrampingincreases.

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VariousEuropeantransmissionsystemoperatorshaveimplementedmorecontrol requirementsforwindthanhavebeenseenintheUnitedStatessofar,suchasramprate limitsandtherequirementtoprovidereservesandfrequencycontrol.Ingeneral,these controlrequirementshavebeenafunctionofsmallcontrolareasorlimitedtransmission interconnections,orboth. Someofthemorestringentwindcontrolstrategieshavebeenproposedincountriesthat havelittleornogridinterconnections,andtheseparticularcircumstancesneedtobe keptinmindwhencomparinginternationalwindintegrationexperiences.Ramping eventswillbeofmoreconcerntosmallgrids,orgridswithfewexternal interconnections,orgridswithalargeconcentrationofwindprojectsinoneregion. Countrieswithmusttakerequirementsintheirrenewableenergyfeedinlawstendto havethetoughestgridcodeprovisionswithregardstowindcurtailment. Indescribingvariousancillaryservices,EuropeandtheUnitedStatesusedifferent terminology.InEurope,primaryreservesassistwiththeshortterm,minutetominute balancingandcontrolofthepowersystemfrequency,andisequivalentintheUnited Statestoregulation.SecondaryreservesinEuropetakeoverforprimaryreserves10to 30minuteslater,freeingupcapacitytobeusedasprimaryreserves.Theclosest terminologyintheUnitedStatesforsecondaryreservesiseitheroperatingreservesor loadfollowingreserves,whichmayincludebothspinningandnonspinning components.LongertermreservesinEuropearecalledtertiaryreservesandare availableintheperiodsaftersecondaryreserves.Tertiaryreservesareclosestto supplementalreservesintheUnitedStates,althoughthetimescalesmaybedifferent betweenEuropeandtheUnitedStates. Reconstitutingexistingreserveservicesmaybenecessaryashigherlevelsofvariable renewableenergygenerationisadded. Submittingscheduleswithshorterperiodsoftimebeforetherealtimemarketbegins willallowformoreaccuratepredictionsofwindgeneration,althoughsometradeoffs areinvolved. Variouswindintegrationstudiesandtransmissionsystemoperatorshavereported someoperatingissueswithwindgeneration,suchasminimumloadandhighramp rates.ANewZealandwindintegrationstudyusedminimumloadtodeterminehow muchwindcouldbeaccommodatedonitsgrid. Forramping,variousstudiessuggestthatwindwillrampupanddownwithin10 percentofcapacitymuchofthetimeoveranhour.Handlingwindrampingcouldbe managedwithsufficientregulationorloadfollowinggeneration;windforecastingto predictvariabilityandrampingevents;performancelimitsonthewindgenerationsuch asrampratelimits;orsharingreservesorenergyimbalancesovermultiplecontrol areas. Effortsarealsounderwayonimprovingthemodelingofwindprojectsfordetermining thepotentialimpactsonsystemreliabilityduringtheprocessofevaluating interconnectionapplicationsfromwindgenerators.

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Intermsofwindintegrationcosts,theresultsofvariousstudiesconductedtodateintheUnited Statesandoverseashavebeenreasonablyconsistent.Overall,thefindingscanbesummarized asfollows:

Thecostforintegratingwindisnonzeroandincreasesastheproportionofwind generationtoconventionalgeneratingresourcesorpeakloadincreases; Reservecostsattributedtowindintegrationarerelativelysmallatwindpenetration levelsoflessthan20percent.Howthevariabilityanduncertaintyofwindgeneration interactswithvariationsinloadandloadforecastinguncertaintyhasalargeimpacton thelevelofwindintegrationcosts. Levelofgeographicconcentrationofwindprojectsalsoaffectswindintegrationcosts. Unitcommitmentimpactshavebeenamajorfocusofwindintegrationstudiesinthe UnitedStatesbuthavenotbeenaddressedasextensivelyintheEuropeanstudiesto date. BasedonseveralEuropeanstudiesthatestimatedthecostsofadditionalreserveswith windgeneration,costsweregenerallylessthan$6/MWhatwindenergypenetration levelsupto20percent,althoughthecostsvariedsignificantlyamongtheindividual studies. Reservecostsforwindgenerationaredependentonthecharacteristicsofthegridthatis integratingwind,theadequacyandcharacteristicsoftheexistingreserves,andthe specificreserverequirementsforeachgrid. StudiesestimatingthecapacitycreditofwindpowerinEuropedeterminedthatwind hasacapacitycreditgreaterthanzero,andalsothatthecapacitycreditdecreasesasthe levelofwindgenerationrises. Factorsthataffectthecapacitycreditofwindincludepresentlevelsofwindgeneration onthegrid;thequalityofthewindresource;thecapacityfactorofthewindprojects; whetherdemandandwindgenerationarecorrelatedoruncorrelated;thedegreeof systemsecurity;andthestrengthofthetransmissioninterconnections.

Astimegoeson,moresimilaritiesthandifferencesareapparentbetweenEuropeandthe UnitedStatesasvariablerenewableenergygenerationincreasesinmarketpenetration.These similaritiesaresparkinginformationexchangeandtransferthroughforumssuchastheIEA,the InstituteofElectricalandElectronicsEngineersandtheUtilityWindIntegrationGroup (UWIG).That,inturn,canhelpelevateprominentissuesandmakethetaskofdeveloping solutionsandoptionsforintegratingvariablerenewableenergygenerationeasier. BenefitstoCalifornia CaliforniahasperhapsthemostsignificantanddiverseRPSintheUnitedStatesintermsofthe level(20percent),timeframe(2010)andtheamountofrenewableenergycapacitythatmaybe requiredtomeetthetarget.Transmissionandtheintegrationofvariablerenewableenergy generationremainchallengesthatneedtobeaddressedinorderforCaliforniatomeetitsRPS goals.VariouscountriesinEuropehaveexperiencewithintegratinghighlevelsofvariable

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renewableenergygeneration.Byreviewingandhighlightingstrategiesandpracticesthathave beenusedtointegratewindinotherstatesandinothercountriesinthisreport,theIAPmay incorporatesomeofthesestrategiesandpracticesasoptionstotestpotentialeffectivenessin integratingvariablerenewableenergygenerationinthestate.ThehopeisthatCalifornia projectsandutilitiescanbegintoevaluateandincorporatesomeoftheseapproachesandtotest theireffectivenessinintegratingrenewables.

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1.0 Introduction
Growthinwindandsolarhasbeensurginginrecentyears.Windcapacityworldwideincreased by25%in2006ascomparedto2005,andEuropereachedits2010goalof40,000MWinstalled windcapacityfiveyearsearly(GlobalWindEnergyCouncil2006).Solarcellproductionhas beenincreasingatover25%annually,andshortagesinmaterialsforsolarcellsandsolarcells themselveshavebeenreported(EarthPolicyInstitute2004). Withgrowthcomeconcernsoverhowtheelectricitygridwillintegratevariablerenewable energyresourcessuchaswindandsolar.Thisreportreviewsthecurrentstudies,practiceand experienceintegratingvariablerenewableenergygeneration.Theapproachforthispaperhas beentoreviewnumerousreports,presentationsandconferencepapersandtofocusonissues identifiedwithintegratingvariablerenewables.Foravarietyofreasons,thispaperwill primarilyciteexamplesforwindgiven:

thereismoregridconnectedwindcapacityworldwidethansolar; theexperiencewithwindismorewidelyreported;and thedevelopmenttodateofsolarsystemshasbeenpredominantlyofsmall,distributed systemsand,atleastasofnow,doesnotfacethesamesystemintegrationissuesaswind power.

Withanumberofincentiveprogramsforsolar,particularlyinGermanyandSpain,grid connectedsolargenerationisstartingtoincrease.Ofthelargest20gridconnectedphotovoltaic (PV)powerplantsintheworld,16havebeeninstalledin2004orlater(PVResources.com2006). Twothirdsofthe74GWofworldwidewindcapacityislocatedinEurope,makingEuropean interestingcasestudyforstudyingthegridimpactsofwind.Althoughwindprovidesabout3% ofEuropeselectricity,someregionshaveconsiderablyhigherwindpenetrationsasindicatedin Table1,suchasWesternDenmark(>20%)andSchleswigHolsteininGermany(~30%) (Holttinen2004).Ultimately,someestimatesindicatethatwindmayprovide12%ofEuropes electricitydemandby2020and30%by2030(VanHulle2005).

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Table 1. Examples of wind power penetration levels, 2005

Country or region Installed wind capacity (MW) 3,128 18,428 2,275 10,028 Total installed power capacity (MW) 7,488 124,268
_________c

Western Denmark Germany: Schleswig-Holstein Spain

69,428

Average annual penetration levela (%) ~23 ~5 ~28 ~8

Peak penetration levelb (%) >100 n.a. >100 ~25%

Island systems: Swedish island of 90 No local generation ~22 >100 d Gotland in normal state n.a. = Not available a Wind energy production as share of system consumption b Level at high wind production and low energy demand, hence, if peak penetration level is >100% excess energy is exported to other regions. c German coastal province d 2002 data. The island of Gotland has a network connection to the Swedish mainland.
Source: Adapted from Soder, Lennart and Ackerman, Thomas (2005). Wind Power in Power Systems: An Introduction, In T. Ackerman (Ed.), Wind Power in Power Systems (pp. 25-51). England: John Wiley and Sons, Ltd. Updated and adapted by the author. Reproduced with permission.

ThemajorityofwinddevelopmentinEuropehastakenplaceinthreecountries:Denmark, Germany,andSpain.Together,thosethreecountriesaccountfor50%ofworldwideinstalled windcapacity.WinddevelopmentinDenmarkandGermanyhasconsistedofsmall installationsofwindturbinesthatarewidelydistributed,takingadvantageofthegeographic dispersionofwindresourcesandprovidingsomesmoothingofwindsvariability. DenmarkandGermanyalsohavestronginterconnectionswithothercountries,allowingthe exportofsurpluswindproductionandtheimportofpowerwhenwindproductionislow. Morerecentwinddevelopmentinothercountrieshasoccurredwherethereislittleornogrid interconnectionwithothercountries.ExamplesincludeSpain,Ireland,andBritain,where internationalgridinterconnectionsaremorelimited. AsonshorewinddevelopmentinEuropebecomesmoresaturated,winddevelopmentwill likelymoveoffshoreandbemoreconcentratedinsmallergeographicareas.Over54GWof offshorewindisinvariousstagesofplanninginEurope(LiebreichandYoung2005).In Germanyalone,between25and30GWofoffshorewindcapacityisplannedfortheNorthand BalticSeasby2030(DeutscheEnergieAgentur2005).Notonlywillwindcapacitybemore concentrated,losingsomeofthesmoothingeffectsforwindfromgeographicdispersion,but someoftheproposedoffshorewinddevelopmentisinregionsthatalreadyhavehighwind penetration,suchasNorthernGermany,furtheraddingtotheintegrationchallenges. AlthoughpresentoperatingpracticeshaveallowedEuropetomanagewindsvariability,there issomethoughtthatnewstrategieswillbenecessarytoaccommodatethefuturegrowthof

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wind.TheUnionfortheCoordinationofTransmissionofElectricity(UCTE),theassociationof transmissionsystemoperatorsfrom23Europeancountries,issuedastatementinMay2005 callingformoregridinfrastructureandotheractionstointegratewindintheEuropeangrid (UCTE2005).TheEuropeanWindEnergyAssociationalsoanticipatesthatsomechangesmay benecessaryinoperatingthegridathigherlevelsofwindpenetration,andsuggestedthat planningbeginforthosechanges(VanHulle2005).TheIEAissponsoringanannex,Design andOperationofPowerSystemswithLargeAmountsofWindPowerProduction,thatbegan inmid2006(InternationalEnergyAgency2006).Finally,theEuropeanTransmissionSystem Operators(ETSO),theassociationoftransmissionsystemoperatorsinEurope,announcedplans toconductaEuropewidewindintegrationstudy.Theplannedstudywillencompass16TSOs in14countriesthatrepresentthefourmajorsynchronouselectricitygridsinEurope.Early resultsfocusingonwindintegrationsolutionsineachsynchronousgridareexpectedin2008 (ETSO2006). Thegridsituationisdifferentaswinddevelopmentspreadstoothercountriesaroundthe world.India,forexample,doesnothaveanationalgridbutinsteadhasfivestateowned regionalgrids,withthegridsinruralareastendingtobeweak.PeriodicpoweroutagesinIndia arecommonandcauseupto$25billionineconomicdamagesannually,accordingtothe governmentofIndia(Sieg2006).Indiahasmovedintofourthplaceamongcountrieswiththe mostinstalledwindcapacityandmetits2012targetof5,000MWofwindcapacityin2006 (RajgorandMathews2006).Similarly,Chinasexplosiveeconomicgrowthhasexceeded availableelectricitysuppliesandledtoelectricityshortages,withtwothirdsoftheprovincesin Chinaexperiencingblackoutsin2004(Kuetal.undated).Chinahasabout2,600MWofwind capacityandhassetagoalof30GWofwindby2020(Jianxiang2006).WindprojectsinChina mustmeeta50%localcontentstandardforprojectsapprovedbefore2005,increasingto70%for projectsapprovedafter2005. Theparticularcircumstancesineachcountry,stateorregionwilldeterminetheeaseof integratingvariablerenewableenergygeneration.Amongotherthings,thisincludessuch factorsaswhetherthegeneratingmixhasflexibleresourcesornot;whethertherearewell functioninganddeephouraheadanddayaheadmarkets;whetherthewindprojectsare relativelyspreadoutorconcentrated;whetherthereisavailabletransmission;andwhetherthe controlareasarefairlybroadorrelativelysmall.Becausethesecircumstancescanvary dramatically,cautionshouldbeusedincomparingcountriesorregionswitheachother.Wind integrationwillalmostcertainlybemorechallenginginsmallcontrolareas,inareaswithnot muchinterconnections,orinareaswithasmallloadand/orsmallresourcestackascomparedto regionswithlargercontrolareas,extensiveinterconnectionsorlargeloadsand/ordeepresource stacks.Someofthemorestringentwindcontrolstrategieshavebeenproposedincountriesthat havelittleornogridinterconnections,andtheseparticularcircumstancesneedtobekeptin mindwhencomparinginternationalwindintegrationexperiences. Thatsaid,theinternationalexperiencewithwindofferssomelessonsforregionsintheUnited Statesthathaveorareexpectingsignificantadditionsofwindcapacity.Already,somecountries havedevelopedwindforecastingstrategiesandgridcodesaddressingwindpowersystemsthat haveformedthebasisforsimilaractionsintheUnitedStates.Thattrendislikelytocontinue.
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Moreexperiencewithwindintegrationwillbegainedascountriesaddwindtotheirgenerating mix. Thereportisorganizedasfollows.Theremainderofthischapterprovidesanoverviewof worldwidewindandsolarcapacity.Chapter2reviewstheresultsofwindintegrationstudies andpracticesintheUnitedStatesandEurope.Chapter3discussestheeffectsofmarket structureandreviewshowthecapacitycreditofwindisdeterminedinternationallyandinthe UnitedStates.Chapter4describesgridoperationissueswithwindtodate.Chapter5reviews thesolutionsthatgridoperatorshavedevelopedtohandlethevariabilityofwindgeneration. Chapter6presentssomefindingsandimplicationsforCalifornia,whileChapter7provides conclusions.Countryspecificprofilesareofferedintheappendixonfourofthefiveleading countriesintheworldinregardstoinstalledwindcapacity:Germany,Spain,India,and Denmark.(TheUnitedStatesistheotherleadingcountryininstalledwindcapacity.)

1.1. Worldwide Wind and Solar Capacity

Windpowergenerationhasbeenrapidlygrowinginpowersystemsthroughouttheworld. Table2showsglobalwindenergygeneratingcapacityattheendof2006,aswellaswind capacityadditionsin2006.AmajorityofthewindpowercapacityhasbeeninstalledinWestern Europe,specificallyinDenmark,GermanyandSpain;however,emergingwindenergy contributorsincludeIndia,Japan,andChina.Indeed,IndiasurpassedDenmarkin2005asthe fourthleadingcountryininstalledwindcapacity(GWEC2006). Worldwidesolarinstallationsarealsosurging,with1,460MWinstalledin2005(seeFigure1). Germanyaccountedfor837MWofthistotal,representing57%ofthemarket.Overall,installed solargeneratingcapacityexceeds5GWworldwide,andprojectionsarethatannualsolar installationswillincreasetobetween3,200MWand3,900MWby2010(Solarbuzz2006). Table3presentsthetwentylargestsolargridconnectedprojectsintheworld.Ofthesetwenty, onlyfourwereinstalledbefore2004.Largescalesolarthermalconcentratingprojectsare beginningtoappearaswell,withSpainplanning795MWofparabolictroughandpowertower projects(WesternGovernorsAssociation2006).

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Table 2. Global wind energy capacity by country, 2006

Country Germany Spain Denmark Italy UK Portugal France Netherlands Austria Greece Ireland Sweden Norway Belgium Poland Other (1) Europe Total United States Canada North America India China Japan Taiwan South Korea Philippines Other (2) Asia Australia New Zealand Pacific Islands Total Pacific Region Brazil Mexico Costa Rica Caribbean (w/o Jamaica) Argentina Columbia Jamaica Other (3) Latin America 2006 Capacity Additions (MW) 2,233 1,587 12 417 634 694 810 356 146 173 250 62 47 26 69 192 7,708 2,454 776 3,230 1,840 1,347 333 84 75 0 0 3,679 109 3 0 112 208 85 3 0 0 0 0 0 296 2006 Total Installed Capacity (MW) 20,622 11,615 3,136 2,123 1,963 1,716 1,567 1,560 965 746 745 572 314 193 153 556 48,545 11,603 1,459 13,062 6,270 2,604 1,394 188 173 25 13 10,667 817 171 12 1,000 237 88 74 35 27 20 20 7 508

23

Table 2: Global wind energy capacity by country, 2006 (continued)

Country Egypt Morocco Iran Tunisia Other (4) Africa & Middle East World Total 2006 Capacity Additions (MW) 85 60 27 0 0 172 15,197 2006 Total Installed Capacity (MW) 230 124 48 20 11 433 74,215

(1) Bulgaria, Croatia, Cyprus, Czech Republic, Estonia, Finland, Faroe Islands, Hungary, Iceland, Latvia, Liechtenstein, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia, Switzerland, Turkey, Ukraine. (2) Bangladesh, Indonesia, Sri Lanka, Russia; (3) Chile, Cuba, Mexico. (4) Cape Verde, Israel, Jordan, Nigeria, South Africa Source: Global Wind Energy Council Press Release. Global Wind Energy Markets Continue To Boom 2006 Another Record Year. February 2007. Available at http://www.gwec.net/uploads/media/0702_PR_Global_Statistics_2006.pdf

Figure 1: Worldwide PV installations in 2005 (MW)

Source: 2006 World PV Industry Report Highlights: World Solar Market. Up 34% in 2005; 837 MW Installed in Germany. Solarbuzz LLC, March 15, 2006. Available at http://www.solarbuzz.com/Marketbuzz2006-intro.htm.

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Table 3. Twenty largest grid-connected photovoltaic systems

World Rank
1 2 3

Project
Solarpark Pocking Solarpark Muhlhausen Freiland SonnenStrom

Location
Pocking, Germany Muhlhausen, Germany Miegersbach, Germany

Size (MW)
10 6.3 5.27

Date Installed
April 2006 December 2004 Part 1, June 2005 Part 2, December 2005

4 5 6 7

Burstadt Plant Solarpark Leipziger Land Springerville Generating Station Solarpark Saarbrucken

Burstadt, Germany Espenhain, Germany Tuscon, Arizona, USA Saarbrucken, Germany

5 5 4.59 4

February 2005 August 2004 2001-2004 Part 1, June 2004 Part 2, September 2005 Part 3, December 2005

8 9

Solarpark Geiseltalsee/Merseburg Solarpark Zeche Gottelborn (Part 1)

Geiseltalsee/Merseburg, Germany Gottelborn, Germany

4 4

September 2004 August 2004

10 11 12

Solarpark Hemau Fischers Family Warehouse Michelin Reifenwerke KGaA

Hemau, Germany Kronwieden/Dingolfing, Germany Homburg, Germany

4 3.7 3.5

2003 October 2005 December 2004, expanded June 2005

13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20

Solarpark Penzing Co.Muckenhausen roof mounted plant Centrale di Serre Persano, ENEL research center Castejon power plant Solarpark Hofkirchen, part of Solarpark Donau Solaranlage Darast Nord Floriade exhibition hall PV System Michelin Reifenwerke KGaA

Penzing, Germany Dingolfing, Germany Serre, Italy Castejon, Navarre, Spain Hofkirchen, Germany Bad Gronenbach/Woringen, Germany Vijfhuizen, Netherlands Bad Kreuznach, Germany

3.45 3.3 3.3 2.44 2.37 2.3 2.3 2.2

December 2005 October 2004 1995 February 2006 August 2005 November 2005 April 2002 2005

Source: Worlds Largest Photovoltaic Power Plants, pvresources.com. Accessed June 2006. Available at http:///www.pvresources.com/en/top50pv.php

25

26

2.0 Wind Integration Studies in the United States and Worldwide

ThischapterwillreviewthewindintegrationstudiesthathavebeenconductedintheUnited Statesandinvariouscountriesaroundtheworld.Thesestudiesoftenemphasizetheroleof ancillaryservicesandtheimpactofwindpowerontheneedforandavailabilityofthese services.WewillbeginbyexamininghowancillaryservicesaredefinedinEuropeandinthe UnitedStates. Electricpowersystemsneedavarietyofancillaryservicestomaintaingridoperationand reliability.Thereisnotgeneralagreementonhowtheseservicesaredefined,andasexplained furtherbelow,theUnitedStatesandEuropedefinetheseservicesdifferently.Evenwithinthe UnitedStates,theremaybedifferencesinwhatisconsideredancillaryservices.Ingeneral, though,thefollowingareconsiderednecessarytomaintainreliablegridoperation:

RegulationMaintainingsystemfrequencythroughvaryingcertaingeneratingunits, typicallywithautomaticgenerationcontrol(AGC),upanddowninresponsetovery fast,unexpectedchangesinloadandgeneration. LoadFollowingRampinggenerationupordowntoreacttothechangeinexpectedload patterns,suchasincreasingloadsinthemorninganddecreasingloadslateintheday. SpinningReserveGeneratingcapacity,typicallysynchronizedtothegrid,thatcan maintainreliabilityifageneratingunitortransmissionlineistrippedoffline. SupplementalreservesThisperformsasimilarfunctiontospinningreserves,i.e., maintainingreliabilityincaseofthelossofamajorgeneratingunitortransmissionline, butthegeneratorsprovidingthisservicearenotgenerallysynchronized(nonspinning) tothegridandmayneedadditionalstartuptimetocontribute.Insomeinstances, supplementalreservesmayalsoreplacespinningreservesafteraperiodoftime (Zavadil,etal.2006).Regulationandloadfollowingarereservesusedfornormal systemconditions,whilespinningandsupplementalreservesareusedforcontingency conditions.

EuropeandtheUnitedStatesusedifferentterminologyindescribingthesevariousancillary services(Table4).InEurope,primaryreservesassistwiththeshortterm,minutetominute balancingandcontrolofthepowersystemfrequency,andareequivalentintheUnitedStatesto regulation.Primaryreservesmustbeavailablewithinsecondsandistypicallydoneby synchronousgeneratorsthatwillautomaticallyincreaseproductionwhenfrequencydropsor reduceproductionwhenfrequencyincreases,orfromloadthatcanbedroppedorreduced. Usually,theamountofprimaryreserveisdefinedbythelargestpowerplantthatcanbelost whilemaintaininggridreliability.SecondaryreservesinEuropetakeoverforprimaryreserves 10to30minuteslater,freeingupcapacitytobeusedasprimaryreserves.Sourcesforsecondary reservesincludequickstartgasturbines,pumpedstoragehydroprojectsandloadreductionor shedding.Likeprimaryreserves,secondaryreservesmayequalthelargestgeneratingunit, althoughafactormaybeaddedtoaccountforloadforecasterrors(HolttinenandHirvonen

27

2005).TheclosestterminologyintheUnitedStatesforsecondaryreservesiseitheroperating reservesorloadfollowingreserves,whichmayincludebothspinningandnonspinning components.LongertermreservesinEuropearecalledtertiaryreservesandareavailableinthe periodsaftersecondaryreserves.Tertiaryreservesareclosesttosupplementalreservesinthe UnitedStates,althoughthetimescalesmaybedifferentbetweenEuropeandtheUnitedStates. Thetermsprimaryandsecondaryreserveswillbeusedwhendescribingtheinternational experiencewithintegratingvariablerenewableenergygeneration. Inadditiontousingdifferentterminology,EuropeandtheUnitedStatesusedifferent frequenciesfortheelectricgrid.Europeoperatesat50HzandtheUnitedStatesoperatesat60 HZ.

Table 4. Reserve definitions in Germany, Ireland, and the United States

Short-term reserves Primary reserve: available within 30 seconds, released by transmission system operator Primary operating reserve: available within 15 seconds (inertial response/ fast response) Regulation horizon: 1 minute to 1 hour with 1- to 5-second Medium-term Reserves Secondary reserve: Minute reserve: available within 5 available within 15 minutes, released minutes, called by by transmission transmission system operator system operator from supplier Secondary Tertiary response: operating reserve: from 90 seconds operates over onwards (dynamic timeframe of 15-90 or static reserve) seconds Load-following horizons: 1 hour within increments 5- to 10 -minute increments (intra-hour) and several hours (inter-hour) Long-term reserves n/a

Germany

Ireland

n/a

United States

Unitcommitment horizon: 1 day to 1 week with 1-hour time increments

Source: Gul, T. and Stenzel, T. 2005. Variability of Wind Power and Other Renewables: Management Options and Strategies. Paris: International Energy Agency.

FourelectricallysynchronouszonesarepresentinEurope:theNordiccountries,theUCTE countries,GreatBritain,andIreland.

TheNordicsynchronouszoneservesFinland,Sweden,Norway,andEasternDenmark. Overall,25millionpeopleareserved,andabout90GWofgeneratingcapacityislocated inthiszone.Thetransmissionsystemoperatorshaveorganizedacooperativebody knownasNordelforadministeringtheNordicelectricitymarket.Totalprimarycontrol reserveis1,600MW,consistingofoperatingreservesof600MWandadisturbance reserveof1,000MW.

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TheUCTEzoneservesabout500millionpeoplein23countries,withabout603GWof generatingcapacitylocatedinUCTE.ForUCTE,primaryreservesmustbeactivated within30secondsandcoverthelossofupto3,000MWofproduction. TheNationalGridCompanyisthegridoperatoroftheelectricitygridinEngland,Wales andScotland.About81GWofgeneratingcapacityislocatedinGreatBritain,with interconnectionstoFrance(2,000MW)andNorthernIreland(450MW)andrequires reservestocoverthelossof1,320MW. TwoTSOs,theEirGridandtheSystemOperatorsNorthernIreland,administerthegrid inIreland,withageneratingcapacityof7,600MWandaDCcabletoGreatBritainthat hasaninterconnectioncapacityof450MW.Thesystemreserveis400MW.

MostofthewindcapacityinEuropeisontheUCTEandNordelgridsand,therefore,willbe emphasizedinthisreport(VanHulle2005).

2.1 Summary of Various Assessments of the Impacts of Wind on Reserves

Anumberofwindintegrationstudieshavebeenconducted,mostlyinvolvingsimulatinglarge amountsofwindcapacityonanelectricitygrid.Theassumptionsandmethodologiesvaryby study,makingdirectcomparisonsdifficult.Theresultsmaydifferbecauseofthedifferent characteristicsoftheelectricgridsbeingstudied,thelevelsofwindpenetrationstudied,andthe differentmethodsandtoolsthathavebeenemployed.Still,thestudyresultsfortheamountand costofreservesrequiredforwindgenerationhavebeenreasonablyconsistent,demonstrating modestimpactstoacertainpointandwithhigherimpactsaswindpenetrationisincreased. Generally,thelargestimpactofwindisonsecondaryreserves.Windhaslittleeffectonprimary reserves,asthevariationsinwindpowerarerandom,andwhenaggregatedwithloadand generationvariations,thevariationstendtomostlycanceleachotherout,withanyincrease attributabletowindbeingquitesmall.Inaddition,primaryreservesareintendedtocoverthe outageofalargeplantortransmissionline,andthereforecangenerallymitigatethemuch smallershorttermimpactsofwind.Asanexample,Eltra,theformertransmissionsystem operatorforWesternDenmark(priortoitsmergerwithElkraft,theformertransmissionsystem operatorforEasternDenmark,toformEnerginet.dk),didnotchangeitsprimaryreserve requirementsof35MW,despitetheincreaseinwindfromzeroto20%.Elsewhere,theRseau deTransportdElectricit,RTE,theFrenchgridoperator,estimatedthattheshortterm fluctuationsof10GWofwindwouldnotexceed100MWwithinoneminute,andthatcurrent reserverequirementsinFrancecantoleratethat(GulandStenzel2005).Spainalsohas determinedthatadditionalprimaryreservesarenotnecessaryfromtheamountofwindonthe Spanishgrid(Eriksenetal.2005). WindintegrationstudiesconductedintheUnitedStateshavefoundsimilarresults.AGeneral Electric(GE)studyforNYSERDAdeterminedthatanother36MWofregulation(primary reservesinEuropeanterminology)wouldberequiredtoaccommodate3,300MWofwind capacity(about10%marketpenetration),butthattheNewYorkIndependentSystemOperator hadsufficientexistingregulationcapabilitiestohandletheadditionalneed.TheGEstudyalso

29

determinedtheNewYorkISOhadsufficientresourcestoaccommodatetheadditionalload following(secondaryreservesinEuropeanterminology)andhourlyvariabilityfrom incorporatingtheadditionalwindcapacity(Piwkoetal.2005).Similarfindingsofmodest incrementalimpactsforregulationandloadfollowingweremadeinwindintegrationstudies conductedinMinnesotaandColorado,bothofwhichinvolvedtheXcelutilitysystem(Zavadil etal.2006). Windpowermaycauseanincreaseinprimaryreserves,however,ifmanywindturbinesdrop offthegridatthesametime,suchasduringastorm,thatmaytripoffwindturbines.The probabilityofthiseventoccurringwilldifferfromcountrytocountryandmayoccurovera periodofseveralhours.InDenmarkandGermany,highwindspeedshappenonlyafewtimes peryear,andbecauseofthegeographicdiversityofthesmallgroupsofwindinstallations spreadacrossthecountry,animmediateshutdownofallthewindturbinesisnotlikelytooccur (AckermanandMorthorst2005).Forexample,E.OnNetzinGermanyreportedthatwind generationdroppedfrom6,024MWtobelow2,000MWbutoveraperiodof10hourson ChristmasEvein2004(E.OnNetz2005).InDenmark,allofthecountryswindcapacitywas disconnectedwhenalargestormwithhighwindsrolledthroughthecountryonJanuary8, 2005.However,ittookeighthoursfor3,000MWofwindcapacitytodisconnect,orabout375 MWperhour(Ackerman2006).Impactsoftheseeventswouldbemorepronouncedintheunit commitmenttimeframeasopposedtothetimeframeforprimaryandsecondaryreservesand highlightstheroleforwindforecasting,asdiscussedlaterinthisreport. TheresultsfromDenmarkandGermanymaybedifferentincountrieswithmoreconcentrated, largewindprojectsthatmayshutoffquicklyduringhighwindevents,and/orincountries wherehighwindspeedsoccurmorefrequently.OneexampleisNewZealand,wherehigh windssurpassthecutoutspeedsofwindturbinesabouteverythreeorfourdays.More primaryreservesmaybenecessaryunderthesecircumstances(AckermanandMorthorst2005). However,aseparatewindintegrationstudyinNewZealanddeterminedthatmoreprimaryor secondaryreserveswouldnotbenecessaryuntilwindcapacityexceeds1,000MW(EnergyLink Ltd.2005). Networkfaultsthatresultinfrequencyorvoltagevariationsmaycausewindturbinesto disconnectfromthegrid,possiblyrequiringadditionalprimaryreserves.Asdiscussedlaterin thisreport,theproliferationofgridcodesrequiringwindturbinestostayonlineduring networkfaultsforvaryingperiodsoftime,dependingontheparticulargridcode,willlikely mitigatethisoccurrenceandtheneedforadditionalprimaryreserves(AckermanandMorthorst 2005). In2005,theGermanenergyagencyDeutscheEnergicAgentus,otherwiseknownasdena, commissionedalargescalestudyofthepotentialgridimpactsofincorporatinglargeamounts ofwindinthefuture.Withregardtoreserves,thedenastudyfoundthatanaverageof1,200 MWandamaximumof2,000MWofwindrelatedpositiveregulation(generationcomingon linetofillinforgenerationgoingofflineorproducinglessthanexpected)wasneededona dayaheadbasisin2003tosupportthe14,500MWofinstalledwindcapacityinGermanyatthat time.Denaprojectedthatamountwouldincreasetoanaverageof3,200MWandamaximumof

30

7,000MWby2015.Theaverageequatesto9%oftheinstalledwindcapacity,andthemaximum to19.4%.Forwindrelatednegativeregulation(generationbackingdowntoaccommodate generationcomingonlineorproducingmoreelectricitythanexpected),anaverageof750MW andamaximumof1,900MWwasrequiredonadayaheadbasisin2003,andwouldrisetoan averageof2,800MWandamaximumof5,500MWin2015.Theaverageisequivalentto8%of installedwindcapacityandthemaximumisequivalentto15.3%ofinstalledwindcapacity.The denastudydeterminedthatthepositiveandnegativereserverequirementscanbemetwith existinggeneration,andthatnonewgenerationwouldbenecessary(dena2005).TheIAPwill estimatereserverequirementsanddetermineifadditionalreservesarenecessary.

2.2

Summary of Estimated Cost Impacts for Additional Reserves from Wind Energy

ArecentliteraturereviewofseveralEuropeanstudiesthatestimatedthecostsofadditional reserveswithwindgenerationfoundthatthesecostsweregenerallylessthan$6/MWhatwind energypenetrationlevelsupto20%,althoughthecostsvariedsignificantlyamongthe individualstudies.Figure2illustratestheseresults.Thesedifferencessuggestedthatreserve costsforwindgenerationwillbedependentonthecharacteristicsofthegridthatisintegrating wind,theadequacyandcharacteristicsoftheexistingreserves,andthespecificreserve requirementsforeachgrid.Theseresultsappearconsistentwithwindintegrationstudies conductedintheUnitedStatesthatfoundthesecostswererelativelymodestatwind penetrationlevelsofunder20%(Table5). Despitethesignificantdifferencesinthestudymethodsandthecharacteristicsofthepower gridsthatwereassessed,thefindingsfromtheEuropeanandUnitedStatesresearchcanbe summarizedasfollows:

Thecostsforintegratingwindisnonzeroandincreasesastheproportionofwind generationtoconventionalgeneratingresourcesorpeakloadincreases. Reservecostsattributedtowindintegrationarerelativelysmallatwindpenetration levelsoflessthan20%.Thesecostsgenerallyincreaseasthelevelofwindpenetration increases. Howthevariabilityanduncertaintyofwindgenerationinteractswithvariationsinload andloadforecastinguncertaintyhasalargeimpactonthelevelofwindintegration costs. Thelevelofgeographicconcentrationofwindprojectsalsoaffectswindintegration costs.Greaterspatialdiversityofwindprojectscanlessenthefluctuationsinwind outputandthereforelessenwindintegrationcosts(Zavadiletal.,2006).

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1 16 11 14 12 Reserve cost ($/MWh) 10 8 6 4 2 6 0 0 1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41 43 45 13a 10 7 9b 9a 13b 3 1 5 2 8 12b 12a 4 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9a 9b 10 11 12a 12b 13a 13b

Intermittent generation level penetration level (% of total system energy)

Country 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9a 9b 10 11 12a 12b 13a 13b

UK Nordic UK UK Ireland Ireland Denmark UK Spain Spain UK Germany Denmark Denmark Scotland Scotland

Comments
Lower bound estimates based on analysis from NEMCO (Australia), Lewis Dale of National Grid, SCAR Study and Millsborrow 2002 Based on data collected in Finland, Sweden, Norway and Denmark Dale, Milborrow SCAR, PIU studies Based on modeling efforts Numbers derived from analysis of international experience, specifically, Denmark, US (BPA) Study conducted for Sustainable Energy Ireland, estimates based on modeling analysis Actual costs to Eltra, Danish grid operator Estimates based on the technical standards of the National Grid Company Low market costs of procuring the difference between predicted and actual generation High market costs of procuring the difference between predicted and actual generation Estimates based on 2001 market data for imbalances Figures derived from analysis of E.On Netz study Low estimate based on Nord Pool balancing market (2002 prices High estimate based on Nord Pool balancing market (2002 prices) National Grid estimates for balancing costs with 10 % penetration of wind in the UK, as reported to the Scottish Parliament National Grid estimates for balancing costs with 20 % penetration of wind in the UK, as reported to the Scottish Parliament

Reference
Mott MacDonald, 2003. Holttinen, 2004. Dale et al 2003. Ilex & Strbac, 2002. Millborrow, 2004. Ilex et al, 2004. Pedersen et al, 2002 Milborrow, 2001a Fabbri et al, 2005. Fabbri et al, 2005. Dale, 2002 Milborrow, 2005a Ackerman et al, 2005 Ackerman et al, 2005 National Grid Transco, 2004 National Grid Transco, 2004

Figure 2. Range of findings of additional reserve costs from wind generators

Source: Adapted from Gross, Robert; Heptonstall, Philip; Anderson, Dennis; Green, Tim; Leach, Matthew; and Skea, Jim. (2006). The Costs and Impacts of Intermittency. London: United Kingdom Energy Research Center. Available at http://www.ukerc.ac.uk/content/view/258/852. British currency converted to U.S. $ using a conversion of $1.8717 per British pound, as of May 25, 2006. Denmark 2002 from Ackerman, Thomas; Morthorst, Poul Erik. 2005. Economic Aspects of Wind Power in Power Systems. In T. Ackerman (Ed.), Wind Power in Power Systems (pp. 384-410). England: John Wiley and Sons, Ltd. National Grid numbers from National Grid Transco. 2004. Submission to the Enterprise and Culture Committee: Renewable Energy in Scotland Inquiry. Available at www.scottish.parliament.uk.. Sustainable Energy numbers from Sustainable Energy Ireland. 2004. Operating Reserve Requirements as Wind Power Penetration Increases in the Irish Electricity System. Available at http://www.sei.ie/uploadedfiles/InfoCentre/IlexWindReserrev2FSFinal.pdf. See Reference for details.

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Table 5. Estimated ancillary service costs from various wind integration studies in the United States
Study Wind Penetration (%)
3.5 20 7 0.06-0.12 4 29 4.3 16.6 4 15 10 15

Regulation $/MWh

Load Following $/MWh

0.41 1.64 0.28 0.70-2.80 0.09 0.15 NA NA NA 0 NA NA

Unit Commitment $/MWh

1.44 3.00 1.00-1.80 N/A 0.69 1.75 NA NA NA 4.37 3.32 3.32

Gas Supply Cost ($/MWh)

NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA 1.26 1.45

Total $/MWh

UWIG/Xcel PacifiCorp BPA/Hirst PJM/Hirst We Energies I We Energies II Great River Energy I Great River Energy II CA RPS Phase III MN DOC/Xcel Xcel-PSCo Xcel-PSCo

0 0 0.19 0.05-0.30 1.12 1.02 NA NA 0.46 0.23 0.20 0.20

1.85 4.64 1.472.27 0.753.10 1.90 2.92 3.19 4.53 NA 4.60 3.72 4.97

Sources: Parsons, Brian, et al: Grid Impacts on Wind Power Variability: Recent Assessments from a Variety of Utilities in the United States. Paper given to Nordic Wind Power Conference, May 22-23, 2006, Finland; and Smith, J.C.; DeMeo, E.; Parsons, B.; and Milligan, M. Wind Power Impacts on Electric-Power-System Operating Costs: Summary and Perspective on Work to Date. March 2004. Presented to the American Wind Energy Conference, Chicago, Illinois. www.nrel.gov/docs/fy04osti/35946.pdf. (accessed June 2, 2006).

Figure3illustratestheestimatedpotentialincreaseinreserverequirementsfromintegrating windenergy,accordingtoseveralwindintegrationstudiesconductedinEurope.The methodologydifferssignificantlybystudy,makingtheseresultsnotdirectlycomparable.For example,thedenastudyinGermanyestimatedreserverequirementsonadayaheadbasis, whiletheUnitedKingdomandSwedenstudiesestimatedreserverequirementsfourhours ahead.Theotherstudiesestimatedtheimpactonreservesfromwindvariabilityduringthe operatinghours(Holttinen,etal.2006).Generally,Figure3suggeststhatanincreaseisreserves islikelyathigherlevelsofwindpenetration.

33


Increase in reserve requirement
10 % Increase as % of wind capacity 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 0% 0% 5% 10 % 15 % 20 % 25 % Wind penetration (% of gross demand) Nordel: SE, NO, FI, DK Finland Sweden Ireland UK Sweden 4 hours ahead dena Germany

Figure 3. Estimated increase in reserve requirements from wind from various studies in Europe
Source: Holttinen, Hannele, Pete Meibom, Antje Orths, Frans Van Hulle, Cornel Ensslin, Lutz Hofmann, John McCann, Jan Pierik, John Olav Tande, Ana Estanqueiro, Lennart Soder, Goran Strbac, Brian Parsons, J. Charles Smith and Bettina Lemstrom. Design and Operation of Power Systems with Large Amounts of Wind Power: First Results of IEA Collaboration. Global Wind Power Conference, Adelaide, Australia. September 18-21, 2006. http://www.ieawind.org/AnnexXXV/Meetings/Oklahoma/IEA%20SysOp%20GWPC2006%20 paper_final.pdf. (accessed November 8, 2006).

Newerwindintegrationstudieswillexaminethepotentialgridimpactsofhigherlevelsofwind penetrationthanhavebeenstudiedtodate.OnejustreleasedstudyinMinnesotaexamined statewidewindpenetrationlevels,byenergy,of15%,20%anhd25%ofretailelectricsalesin Minnesota,whichisequivalenttoabout3,500MW;4,600MW;and5,700MWofwindcapacity. Thestudyprojectedtotalwindintegrationcostsofnomorethan$4.50perMWhforupto25% windenergymarketpenetration.Thisconclusionwasbaseduponassumingconsolidationof someofthebalancingauthorityfunctionsintheMidwestIndependentSystemOperator, sufficienttransmission,geographicallydiversewinddevelopment;andthelargeenergymarket intheMidwestIndependentSystemOperatorsterritory(Enernex2006).TheIAPwillassess windandsolarmarketpenetrationlevelsofabout20%inthe2020scenario. Actualreportedcountryexperiencewithreservecostsisrelativelylimited.Reservecostsin Denmarkwerebetween2.6and3/MWh,beforethelaunchoftheNordpoolbalancingmarket in2003.In2002,theaveragecostofupregulation(generationcomingonlinetofillinfor generationgoingofflineorproducinglessthanexpected)intheJutlanFurenareainDenmark was12/MWhwhiletheaveragecostofdownregulationwas7/MWh(generationbacking downtoaccommodategenerationcomingonlineorproducingmorethanexpected).Thecosts ofupregulationtypicallyexceededthecostsofdownregulation,perhapsbecausethemarginal costtogeneratorofupregulationishigherthanfordownregulation.In2003,Nordpool launchedacommonbalancingmarket.EveryTSOtakesbalancingbids,andNordpool combinestheminacommonresourcestack.Iftransmissioncongestionoccurs,onlythereserve bidsfromwithinthecountrycanbeused.Mostofthereservesprovidedsofarsincethelaunch
34

ofthecommonbalancingmarkethasbeenfromlargehydroplantsinNorwayandSweden (AckermanandMorthorst2005).In2005,regulationcostsinDenmarkaveraged0.7Euro cents/kWhforupregulationand0.8Eurocents/kWhfordownregulation.Thecostsfor regulationduetowindpoweraveraged0.2Eurocents/kWh(Morthorst2006). E.OnNetzinGermanyhasreportedsharplyhighernumbersforprimaryandsecondary reservecostsandcontendsthatupto80%oftheinstalledwindcapacitymustbebackedupby conventionalpowerplants,termedshadowcapacity.Furthermore,becauseoflimited forecastingaccuracy,E.OnNetzassertsthatreservecapacityof5060%ofinstalledwind capacitymustbemaintained.E.Onsaiditspent100millionin2003forcostsconnectedto windrelatedreservecapacity,orabout11.8perMWhforthe8.5TWhofwindgenerationin 2003(E.OnNetz2004).E.OnNetzforecastedprimaryandsecondaryreservecostsat7/MWh by2016ata16%windpenetrationlevel,andanadditional15/MWhfortheadditionalcapacity neededtoprovidereserves(Auer2004). E.OnNetzscostshavebeenchallengedasunrepresentativeandmorereflectiveof inefficienciesfromthefourmarketzonesinGermanythanfromreservecostsattributableto wind.AWindStats(atradepublication)analysisofE.OnNetzsfiguressuggestedthatthe utilitydidnotbalanceoutthefluctuationsofwindwiththefluctuationsofload,makingthe balancingimpactsofwindlargerthanmaybethecasefromanoverallutilitysystem perspective.Furthermore,thesameanalysissuggestedthatifthefourGermanzoneswere combined,imbalanceswouldcanceleachotherout60%ofthetime(Milborrow2005a). PerhapsfurthercontributingtothehighreservecostscitedbyE.OnNetzwasthescheduling protocolsthatwereinplaceuntilAugust2004.Untilthattime,windgenerationwasscheduled infirmflatblocks,ascheduleatoddswiththevariationsofwind,between9.5and33.5hours beforerealtimeelectricitydelivery.Thedayaheadschedulescouldnotbeadjustedunlessthere wasasignificantincreaseordecreaseineithergenerationorload.Therefore,differencesin advanceschedulesandrealtimedeliverieswerebalancedthroughreservecapacity.Inaddition, theinabilitytoupdatewindforecastsmorefrequentlythandayaheadalsocouldhave contributedtothehighreservecostsreportedinGermany. In2004,GermanychangeditsfeedinlawwherebyeachGermanTSOisallocatedwindenergy, andthecostsofbalancingwindenergy,inproportiontotheirnationalloadshareandnottheir shareofnationalinstalledwindcapacity.Theseshareschangemonthly.Balancingcosts,along withthewindtariffcosts,areallocatedtoendusecustomersinproportiontotheirshareoftotal load.Effectively,theGermanTSOscommittoashareofwindenergyamonthinadvance. Windgenerationthatexceedstheexpectedmonthlyaverageistypicallysoldinthemarketby theTSOs,mostoftenthedayaheadmarket.Ifwindgenerationislessthantheexpected monthlyaverage,thenenergyneedstobeboughtonthemarket(mostoftenthedayahead market).Ifwindpowerdiffersfromthedayaheadwindforecast,TSOstypicallyrelyon reserves,orifitisknownfarenoughinadvance,ontheintradaymarketthatbeganinJanuary 2006.

35

FortheintradaymarketinGermany,powertradersnominatethebuyerandselleroneachside ofthetransactionandtransmissionpath,andtheGermanTSOsconfirmthetransaction. Nominationsmustbeinonehourblocksandscheduledatleastonehourinadvance.In2007, theintradaymarketwillmovetoevery15minutes,with45minutesadvancenoticerequired. InSeptember2006theEuropeanPowerExchange(EEX)inLeipzig,Germany,starteda platformforintradaytrading.About80powertradersparticipateintheplatform,and transactionsaverageabout2,000MWhperday,withahighof5,000MWhperday.Bidsusually rangefrom5to100MW,withamaximumlimitallowedof1,000MW.Pricesrangefrom20 120perMWh.Bycomparison,pricesforreservesmayrangefrom50to200perMWh (sometimesover1000perMWh).Theintradaymarketcouldbeusedforbalancingwind power,especiallyforcoveringwindforecasterrors(Ernst2006).Withtheadventofamore robustbalancingmarket,thehighbalancingcostsreportedin2003byE.OnNetzarenotlikely tobeexperiencedagain.

2.3

Unit Commitment Impacts

Planningandschedulinggenerationtomeetdemandandmaintainreliabilityinvolves schedulinggenerationtomeetexpectedloadsinatimeframethatcanrangefromseveralhours toafewdays,dependingonthestartup,rampingandothercharacteristicsofgeneratingunits onthegrid.Thisprocessisknownasunitcommitment,andthetimeframeisknownastheunit commitmenttimeframe.Overschedulinggenerationmayincreasecostsandwastegeneration andfuel,whileunderschedulinggenerationcouldresultinexpensiveshorttermmarket purchases,orintheworstcase,havereliabilityimplicationsifinsufficientgenerationhasbeen scheduledandnotenoughgenerationisavailableonshortnotice.Becausewindgenerationis variableandmayhavecharacteristicsoppositeofload(i.e.,windprojectsmaynotgenerate whenloadisrisingandviceversa),gridoperatorsandutilitiesmayincuradditionalunit commitmentcosts. Unitcommitmentwithsignificantamountsofwindgenerationhassomeuncertainty,andthe flexibilityoftheothergeneratorsdeterminehoweasyordifficultunitcommitmentdecisions withwindgenerationare.Inaddition,asdiscussedlater,anaccuratewindforecastcanassistin unitcommitmentdecisions.Windgenerationcancauseextracostsifpowerplantoperationis lessefficientbecauseofchangesinwindproductionanderrorsinwindforecasting.Fora systemwithmorebaseloadthermalgeneration,asopposedtothosewithmorehydro,cost impactsarecontingentonwhetherplantsareoverorundercommittedbecauseofwind generation. AlthoughunitcommitmenthasbeenamajorfocusofwindintegrationstudiesintheUnited States,unitcommitmenthasnotbeenaddressedasextensivelyintheEuropeanstudiestodate (Grossetal.2006).InIreland,ESBNationalGrid(nowknownasEirGrid)conductedasystem simulationtomeasuretheimpactsofwindgenerationonunitcommitment.Thestudyscaled outputfromexistingwindprojectswithwinddatafromplannedwindprojectstocreatea powertimeseries.ESBfoundthatathighwindpenetrations,thenumberofstartupsand rampingforgasturbinesincreasedsignificantly(Holttinenetal.,2006).

36

2.4

Wind and Natural Gas Storage

AwindintegrationstudyconductedforthePublicServiceCompanyofColorado(PSCO)inthe UnitedStatesestimated,amongotherthings,theimpactsofincreasingamountsofwindonthe naturalgaspurchases,consumptionandstorage.PSCOacquiresnaturalgasonadayahead basis,andthosepurchasesarebasedontheforecastedloadandtheplansforthecommitment andutilizationofnaturalgasgeneration.Thequestioniswhethertheadditionalnextday uncertaintywithwindgenerationmayaffectgaspurchaseandstoragedecisions.Becausegas storageislimited,notpurchasingenoughnaturalgasmayresultinhavingtopurchasepower ontheopenmarket,whereaspurchasingtoomuchnaturalgasmaywastefuel.Thestudy comparedtheadditionalcostsofpurchasingandstoringnaturalgaswithvaryingamountsof windenergyversusareferencecaseanddeterminedtheadditionalcosts(seeTable6).The additionalgasstorageneededtoaccommodatewindsvariabilityprovidesawintersummer hedgingbenefit,estimatedat$1.00/MWhofwindenergyata15%windpenetration.These benefitswerecreditedbacktowindgeneration(Zavadiletal.2006).

Table 6. Estimated financial impacts on the Public Service Company of Colorados gas supply due to wind generation variability and uncertainty
Wind Penetration $/MWh Gas Impact No Storage Benefits $/MWh Gas Impact with Storage Benefits 10% $2.17 $1.26 15% $2.52 $1.45

Source: Zavadil et al. 2006. Wind Integration Study for Public Service Company of Colorado, May 1, 2006. Available at http://www.xcelenergy.com/docs/corpcomm/PSCoWindIntegStudy.pdf.

2.5

Changes to Reserve Service

Reconstitutingexistingreserveservicesmaybenecessaryashigherlevelsofvariablerenewable energygenerationisadded.Oneexamplemaybetocommitadditionalreserveservicesfor expectedwindevents,suchasstormswithhighwindsthatcouldtripwindgeneratorsasthe stormpassesthrough(EnergyLinkLtd.2005). Somegridoperatorsarecontemplatingofferingaseparatereserveserviceforwind,oratthe least,reconstitutingtheirexistingreserveservicestoreflecttheadditionofwindtotheirgrid. EirGridinIrelandisinterestedinproposinganewancillaryserviceknownaswindfollowing capability(WFC)thatwouldbeprovidedinadditiontoreplacementreserves.TheWFCwould bescheduledtorespondtounpredictedchangesinwindoutput,andtheamountneededwould bedependentontheaccuracyofwindforecasts,theamountofwindgenerationandcapacity, thehistoricalandprojectedvariationsinwindoutput,andthetimehorizonoftheWFCservice. Initially,EirGridprojectsthat484MWofWFCwouldberequiredfor1,100MWofwindata costofabout4millionannuallybutbelievesthisestimatecouldbeloweredwithgoodwind forecasting(SmithandRyan2005).TheAlbertaElectricSystemOperator(AESO)alsohas contemplatedestablishingawindspecificancillaryservicecalledwindfollowing(Alberta ElectricSystemOperator2006).

37

Tyinganancillaryservicespecifictoatechnologysuchaswindwouldbeasignificantand perhapsunwisedeparturefromtheexistingpracticeoftyingancillaryservicestospecific systemneeds.Existingreserveservicesmayadequatelyaccommodatetheincorporationof variablerenewableenergygeneration.Totheextentmorereservesareneeded,aseparateload followingancillaryserviceinthe10minutetomultihourtimeframecouldbeestablished.Such aserviceisnotdirectlyofferedandpricedintheUnitedStatestheexistinggenerationfleet inherentlymayhaveenoughloadfollowingcapabilitytoprovideitatlittleornocost.

2.6

Implications for California

TheCaliforniarenewableportfoliostandard(RPS)requiresutilitiestouseleastcost,bestfit strategiesforselectingrenewableenergyprojectsinbiddingsolicitations,includingindirect systemintegrationcosts.TheEnergyCommissionhassponsoredpreviousworkassessing integrationcostsforthecurrentmarketpenetrationlevelsofrenewableenergyinCalifornia. Themostrecentreportassessedintegrationcostsfor2002through2004anddeterminedthatthe costofregulationforwindandsolarrangedfrom$0.24/MWhto$0.7/MWh.Thereportalso foundthatthecurrentlevelofrenewableenergyinCaliforniadoesnothaveasignificantimpact ontheshorttermloadfollowingmarket(Shiuetal.2006).Previousresearchsponsoredbythe EnergyCommissiondeterminedthatCaliforniahasadeepstackofavailablepowerresources andthecurrentlevelofrenewableenergyinCaliforniawouldnothaveasignificantimpacton unitcommitment. TheIAPwillassesswhetherCaliforniahassufficientregulationandoperatingreserves (primaryandsecondaryreservesinEuropeanterminology)toaccommodatelargeamountsof variablerenewableenergygeneration.Basedontheresearchandexperiencetodate,the followingcouldbeexpected:

Theneedforprimaryandsecondaryreserveswilllikelyriseasthemarketpenetration ofvariablerenewableenergygenerationincreases. Weatherandhighwindspeedeventsmayincreasetheneedforprimaryandsecondary reserves,althoughwindforecastingandgridcodesforwindturbinesmayhelp minimizethisneed.

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3.0 Market Structure and Capacity Credit

3.1 Market Scheduling and Balancing Requirements
Generally,submittingscheduleswithshorterperiodsoftimebeforetherealtimemarketbegins willallowformoreaccuratepredictionsofwindgeneration,althoughsometradeoffsare involved.Havingashorterperiodoftimebeforethestartofrealtimemarketoperationsleads toaneedformoreflexiblesecondaryreserves,orperhapshighercostsfromtheincreased startingandstoppingofconventionalunits,asthoseshorterperiodsoftimewillnotallow sufficienttimetochangeunitcommitmentdecisionsforconventionalgeneratingunits(Guland Stenzel2005). Thefinalscheduleclosingtimesaregenerallyahistoricalartifactandmaynothavea technologicaloreconomicbasis.Mostcountriesrequirefinalschedulestobesubmittedbetween 12and36hoursinadvance,althoughtheUnitedKingdomallowsschedulestobechangedup toonehourbeforerealtimepoweroperationsbegin,andtheAustralianpowerexchangeallows rebiddingupto5minutesbeforeactualresourcedispatch(seeTable7)(GulandStenzel2005). Inaddition,Elbas,ashorttermmarketwherebuyersandsellerscanengagepowertransactions uptoonehourbeforerealtime,isoperatinginFinlandandSweden,althoughvolumeis reportedlythin(MatevosyanandSoder2005).Germanylaunchedahouraheadmarketin2006 (Ernst2006b).

Table 7. Market closing times in various electricity markets

Market England and Wales Nordpool Elspot (power exchange) Nordpool Elbas Australia Power Exchange Closing time 1 hour before the half-hour in question 12:00 p.m. before the day in question; no changes possible after 12:00 p.m. 1 hour before the hour in question; no changes possible after this Rebidding possible until the resources are used for dispatch (i.e., up to 5 minutes before the time in question) 2 hours before the hour in question; different rules in place for wind generators 12:00 p.m. before the day in question; no changes possible after 12:00 p.m. 10:00 a.m. the day before for the day-ahead market. Hour-ahead closes two hours and fifteen minutes before real-time

New Zealand Power Exchange PJM Market Day-Ahead Market

California ISO

Source: Ackerman, Thomas; Morthorst, Poul Erik. 2005. Economic Aspects of Wind Power in Power Systems. In T. Ackerman (Ed.), Wind Power in Power Systems (pp. 384-410). England: John Wiley and Sons, Ltd. California information from the author. Reproduced with permission.

39

NewZealandaddedprovisionstotheirschedulingrulesforwindgenerators,whostillmust offerschedulestwohoursaheadlikeothergeneratorsbutarerequiredtosubmitrevised schedulesclosertorealtimeifexpectedchangesinoutputexceedatoleranceband,generally consideredtobe10MWor10%ofexpectedoutput,whicheverissmaller.Exemptionsare possibleforprojectsunder10MWorforprojectsnotconnectedtothegrid,oriftheexpected changeinoutputislessthan5MW.Inaddition,windgeneratorsmustofferoutputintothe marketat$0.01perMWhwhichisthelowestpriceageneratorcanofferinNewZealand,unless ageneratorbidszerointhemustrundispatchauction(EnergyLinkLtd.,2005). TheUnitedKingdomrecentlywenttoaonehouraheadschedulingsystem.Previously,the requirementwasthreeandahalfhoursadvancenotice,andmarketparticipantshadto scheduleinhalfhourincrements.Ifwindconditionschangedintheshortrun,windgenerators hadtotradesurplusesordeficienciesinthespotmarket,leadingonepersontoremarkthatthe mostprofitablewayofoperatingawindfarmsofarhasbeentoturnitoff(GulandStenzel 2005).ItwasestimatedthattheNewElectricityTradingArrangements,asthethreeandahalf hourrequirementwascalled,imposedadditionalcostsofbetween3.6perMWhto5.7per MWhforabout500MWofwindpower.However,somehavecriticizedtheonehourschedule asencouragingmarketparticipantstoschedulemorespinningreservethanisnecessary,either throughovercontractingorrunningtheirplantsatpartialload,inordertoavoidbalancing penalties(GulandStenzel2005).Elsewhere,theTSOsinDenmarkarebiddingsomeofthe windproductiononthedayaheadmarketinNordpooltoreduceschedulingofthe conventionalpowerplants(Holttinen2004). InSpain,thebalancepenaltyisfixedannuallyviaaregulatedtariff.For2004,thepenaltywas about7/MWh.Thebalancepenaltyappliestodeliverieshigherorlowerthan20%ofthe scheduledgeneration,determinedfurtherbytheforecasterror,whichistherelativedeviation betweenforecastedandactualhourlygeneration,orcalculatedastheMeanAbsolute PercentageError(VanHulle2005).

3.2

Resource Delivery (Capacity Credit)

Windgeneratorsoccupyauniqueplaceinthedeterminationofcapacityvalue.Windgenerators typicallyhaveveryhighmechanicalavailability,exceeding95%inmanyinstances(i.e.,the forcedoutagerateisoftenbelow5%).However,becausewindgeneratorsonlygenerate electricitywhenthewindblows,awindgeneratorarguablyhasaforcedoutagewhenthewind doesnotblow.Therefore,theeffectiveforcedoutagerateforwindgeneratorsmaybemuch higher,from50%to80%,whenrecognizingthevariabilityofwind.Inaddition,windsvalueto theelectricsystemmayalsovary.Theoutputfromsomewindgeneratorsmayhaveahigh correlationwithloadandtherebycanbeseenassupplyingcapacitywhenitismostneeded.In thissituation,awindgeneratingplantshouldhavearelativelyhighcapacitycredit.Other factorsthatdetermineawindscapacitycreditareprovidedinTable8. AreviewofvariousstudiesthathaveestimatedthecapacitycreditofwindpowerinEurope determinedthatwindhasacapacitycreditgreaterthanzero,andalsothatthecapacitycredit decreasesasthelevelofwindgenerationrises.ThesefindingsareillustratedinFigure4.

40

Table 8. Factors positively and negatively affecting the capacity credit of wind power
Higher capacity credit Low penetration of wind power Higher average wind speed, high wind season when demand peaks. Lower degree of system security Higher wind power plant (aggregated) load factor (determined by wind climate and plant efficiency) Demand and wind are correlated Low correlation of wind speeds at the wind farm sites, (often related to large size area considered) Good wind power exchange through interconnection Lower capacity credit High penetration of wind Lower average wind speeds High system degree of security Lower aggregated capacity factor or wind power Demand and wind uncorrelated Higher correlation of wind speeds at wind farm sites, smaller areas considered Poor wind power exchange between systems

Source: Van Hulle, Fran. 2005. Large Scale Integration of Wind Energy in the European Power Supply. Brussels, Belgium: European Wind Energy Association. Available at http://www.ewea.org/fileadmin/ewea_documents/documents/publications/grid/051215_Grid_report.pdf.

CapacitycreditstudiesforwindintheUnitedStateshavenotgenerallymeasuredthecapacity creditofwindversusthemarketpenetrationofwindbuthavefocusedmoreonthemethods andmechanicsofdeterminingthecapacitycreditforwind.Avarietyofapproacheshavebeen usedintheUnitedStatesfordeterminingthecapacitycreditofwind,rangingfromdetermining theequivalentloadcarryingcapabilityofwind;usingaproxyvalue;ormeasuringthecapacity factorofwindduringpeakdemandhours(MilliganandPorter2005).Table9presentsthe variousmethodsintheUnitedStatesfordeterminingthecapacitycreditofwind.

41

40

Capacity Credit (% of installed intermittent generation capacity)

35

1
30 25 9 20 15 10 5 0
0 1 3 5 7 9 15 17 19 21 31 29 33 35 11 13 23 25 27 37 39

2 3 4
2 4 6 1 5 7

5 6 7 8 9

Intermittent generation penetration level (% of total system energy)

Country Ireland UK Germany UK UK N. Europe UK Germany UK Comments Estimate of capacity credit values for an island system Estimates based on analysis from a three different sources, Central Electricity Generating Board, National Grid, and System Costs of Additional Renewables (SCAR Report) DENA project steering group Examines the CEGB and SCAR reports and adjusts them for greater penetrations of wind Based on modeling Estimates based on reanalysis data collected from operating wind facilities Early assessment of capacity of wind projects in the UK E. On Netz Study Commissioned by UK Government Reference Watson 2001 Mott MacDonald 2003. DENA. Dale et al., 2003. Ilex and Strbac, 2002. Giebel, 2000 Grubb 1991 E.On Netz 2005 Sinden 2005

3 4 5 6 7 8 9

Figure 4: Capacity credit values

Source: Adapted from Gross, Robert; Heptonstall, Philip; Anderson, Dennis; Green, Tim; Leach, Matthew; and Skea, Jim. (2006). The Costs and Impacts of Intermittency. London: United Kingdom Energy Research Center. Available at http://www.ukerc.ac.uk/content/view/258/852. See Reference section for details.

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Table 9. Examples of wind capacity credit methods in the United States

Region/Utility CA/CEC PJM Method ELCC Peak Period Note Rank bid evaluations for RPS (low 20s) Jun-Aug HE 3 p.m.-7 p.m., capacity factor using 3-year rolling average (20%, fold in actual data when available) May change to capacity factor, 4 p.m.-6 p.m., Jul (2.8%) Sequential Monte Carlo (26-34%) Offshore/onshore (40%/10%) PUC decision (30%) and Current Enernex study possible follow-on, Xcel using MAPP approach (10%) in internal work 20% all sites in RMATS Sequential Monte Carlo (20%) Monthly 4-hour window, median 33% (method not stated) 4 p.m.-8 p.m. capacity factor during July (5%) PSE will revisit the issue (lesser of 20% or 2/3 Jan C.F.) Top 10% loads/month; 85th percentile

ERCOT MN/DOC/Xcel GE/NYSERDA CO PUC/Xcel

10% ELCC ELCC ELCC

RMATS PacifiCorp MAPP PGE Idaho Power PSE and Avista SPP

Rule of thumb ELCC Peak Period Peak Period Peak Period Peak Period

Source: Milligan, Michael, and Kevin Porter (2005). Determining the Capacity Value of Wind: A Survey of Methods and Implementation. Golden, CO: National Renewable Energy Laboratory. Available at www.nrel.gov/docs/fy05osti/38062.pdf.

3.3

Implications for California

TheCAISOimplementeditswindforecastingprogram,discussedlaterinthisreport,inlarge partbecauseofconcernsthattheimbalancepenaltiespresentinCalifornias10minute schedulingprotocolswouldsimplymakeitimpossiblefornewwindprojectstobedeveloped inthestate.In2008,theCAISOisscheduledtolauncharedesignmarketbasedonlocational basedmarginalpricing(LMP)thatisinplaceintheMidwestISO,theNewYorkISO,theNew EnglandISO,andPJM.Themarketdesignwillallowschedulingcoordinatorstosubmit unbalancedbidsbetweengenerationandload,andisintendedtoresultindeepdayaheadand houraheadmarketsthatcouldmoreeasilyintegratevariablerenewableenergytechnologies suchaswindandsolar. Concerningcapacityvalue,theEnergyCommissionissuedareportinJune2006that,among otherthings,estimatedthecapacityvalueofrenewableenergytechnologiesusingthe equivalentloadcarryingcapability(ELCC)method.Usingamediumsizedgasplantasa benchmarkunit,thereportfoundthatwindvaluesrangedfrom24%to39%ofnameplate capacity,whilesolarrangedfrom79%to83%ofnameplatecapacity.Table10presentsthese results.Becauseofdatainconsistenciesinthenameplatecapacities,theresultsinTable10are representedrelativetobothreportednameplatecapacityandannualpeakgeneration(Shiuet al.2006).

43

Table 10. Estimated capacity credit of various renewable energy technologies as compared to a medium-sized gas plant
Capacity Credit 2002 2003 2004
ELCC relative ELCC relative to to reported annual peak generation nameplate capacity

ELCC relative ELCC relative ELCC relative ELCC relative to to annual to reported nameplate capacity to annual peak generation reported nameplate capacity peak generation

Resource Medium Gas Biomass Geothermal (north) Geothermal (south) Solar Wind (Northern Cal) Wind (San Gorgonio) Wind (Tehachapi)

100% 98% 108%

100% 98% 108%

100% 98% 109%

100% 98% 109%

100% 98% 109%

100% 98% 109%

109% 82% 33%

109% 88% 24%

109% 68% 37%

109% 83% 25%

109% 75% 44%

109% 79% 30%

42%

39%

28%

24%

27%

25%

29%

26%

34%

29%

29%

25%

Source: Shiu, Henry; Milligan, Michael; Kirby, Brendan; Jackson, Kevin. June 2006. California Renewables Portfolio Standard Renewable Generation Integration Cost Analysis: Multi-Year Analysis Results and Recommendations. California Energy Commission Consultant Report. Available at http://www.energy.ca.gov/2006publications/CEC-500-2006-064/CEC-500-2006-064.PDF.

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4.0 Operational Issues to Date

TSOshavereportedvariousoperationalissueswithwindgeneration,suchasminimumload, highramprates,overflowontransmissioninterconnectionsandimpactsonothergenerating unitsandtransmissionlines.Thesearediscussedbelow.

4.1

Minimum Load

Definedsimply,minimumloadisthesmallestamountofloadonthesystemduringadefined periodoftime.Minimumloadmayhavedifferentproperties.Aneconomicminimumloadis wheneconomicgenerationiscurtailed,orwhensomeoperationalcostsarerealizedtocurtail somegenerationforshortperiods.Aphysicalminimumloadiswhentotalgenerationis decreasedtominimumproduction,andfurtherreductionsingenerationwillrequirethe removalofsomegenerationfromoperation. Denmarkswindintegrationeffortsareaidedconsiderablybytheextensiveinterconnectionsthe countryhaswithitsneighbors.Alltold,Denmarkhasinterconnectionstoneighboringcountries ofabout3,000MW.Evenwiththoseinterties,hourlywindproductioninDenmarkattimescan exceed100%ofload.Inthesecases,EnerginetdKmustexportthewindgeneration,orcurtailit. CurrentmarketrulesinNordpoolalsodonotpermitpricestobenegativewhichwould provideausefulpricesignaltogenerators(InternationalEnergyAgency2005a). Duringthesetimes,windmaylowerthemarketpriceinWesternDenmark,sometimesaslow aszeroforanumberofhours.Zeropricesoccurredfor84hoursinWesternDenmarkin2003 (Eltra2004a).Suchasituationcanoccurevenifgenerationisexportedbutsupplyisstillmore thandemand.Effectively,WesternDenmarkisseparatedfromtherestofNordpooland constitutesaseparatepricingarea.Conventionalpowerplantshavetoreducetheirproduction untilthesupplyanddemandbalanceisrestored(Ackerman&Morthorst2005).Overall, though,onepreliminarystudydeterminedthatconsumersinWesternDenmarksave60to 100millionin2005fromwinddisplacingfossilfuelplantsandloweringmarketprices(Moller 2006a). ANewZealandwindintegrationstudyusedminimumloadtodeterminehowmuchwind couldbeaccommodatedonitssystem.AHVDClineessentiallyseparatesNewZealandinto twoelectricitymarkets,NorthandSouth.Thestudydeterminedminimumloadwas1,550MW intheNorthand1,180MWintheSouth.Afternettingoutregulation(100MW),instantaneous reserves(basicallyspinningreserves:50MW)andthemarginalgeneratingplantforload following(100MW),thestudydeterminedthatupto1,300MWofwindcouldbeincorporated intheNorthand930MWintheSouth,or2,230MWintotal.Thatwouldroughlyresultina 35%marketpenetrationforwind,ifrealized.Thatcoulddropsignificantlyifwindprojectsare concentratedasopposedtodispersedacrossthecountry(EnergyLinkLtd.2005). GEswindintegrationstudyforNYSERDAdeterminedthatminimumloadisnotaconcern withregardstowindintegrationintheNewYorkISO.NewYorkisanenergyimporterwithout windandremainsanimporterwithwindforallbut25hoursayear,accordingtoGEswind forecastingcase.OnlyinacasewithoutwindforecastingdidenergyexportsoutofNewYork

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riseto100hours.WhileunitsinGEsmodelwerestillassumedtoberunningabovetheir operatingminimumpointsintheirmodel,GEsaidtheirassumptionthatneighboringcontrol areascouldabsorbtheexcesswindenergymightnotbesupportable,particularlyifthose controlareashavealsoincorporatedlargeamountsofwind(Piwkoetal.2005). ThereareseveralcharacteristicsofCaliforniaselectricitysystem,beyondtheincorporationof additionalsourcesofvariablerenewables,thatmaycontributetoproblemsofminimumload. Theseinclude:

mustrunqualifyingfacilitycontractsunderPURPA increasedprocurementofcombinedcyclenaturalgasprojectsthatoperatebaseloadand aroundtheclock(Dyeretal.2005).

TheCAISOnotedthatminimumloadconditionscanbeexacerbatedinAprilandMaywhen hydrogeneration,consideredmusttake,surgesbecauseofrunofffrommeltingsnowand whenwindgenerationcorrespondinglyisathighlevelsaswell(MakarovandHawkins2005). IntheIAP,productioncostmodelingwillbeusedtoidentifywhetherminimumloadwill becomeaconcernashigherlevelsofvariablerenewableenergygeneration.Ifminimumload issuesareidentified,theIAPwillrecommendpotentialoperationandmitigationstrategies.

4.2

Ramping

Datafromvariousstudiessuggestthatwindwillrampupanddownwithin10%ofcapacity muchofthetimeoveranhour.However,attimeswindgenerationcanrampupanddown quitequickly.Thevariationsinwindoutputarethegreatestbetween25%and75%ofawind plantsratedcapacity,astheslopeofthewindpowercurveisthesteepest.Thebiggest observedvariationsinwindoutputarestormdriven,aswindturbinesreachtheirmaximum outputandreduceoutputrapidlyafterthestormpassesthrough(Holttinen2004). Hourlywindvariationscanbelesspronounced,especiallyifthewindprojectsarespreadout geographicallywithpoweroutputaggregatedwithinthesystem.Asanexample,asinglewind projectcanexhibitsignificanthourtohourpowerswings,butthevariabilitydecreaseswith geographicdiversity.Onereview,forinstance,foundthemaximumhourlyvariationof350 MWofaggregatedwindprojectsinGermanydidnotexceed20%(VanHulle2005).A simulationofwindpowerintheNordiccountriesdeterminedthatthelargesthourlyvariations areplusorminus30%ofcapacityinaregionthesizeofWesternorEasternDenmark;about plusorminus20%ofcapacitywhentheareais400x400km2,suchasGermany,Denmark, Finland,orthestateofIowa,andplusorminus10%inlargerareasencompassingmultiple countries,suchastheNordicregion(Holttinen2005a).IntheNordiccountries,thewindpower simulationsuggestedthathourlychangesfromwindpowerarewithin5%9194%ofthetime andbetween10%ofcapacity99%ofthetime.Themaximumhourlystepchangesare20%of installedcapacityforonecountry,althoughthesimulationdetermineditissomewhathigher forDenmark(Holttinen2004).Thevariationsaremoreoverafourhourperiod,withthe maximumat50%intheNordiccountries(Holttinen2005a).

46

Itisimportanttokeepinmindthatthegridremainsreliableandkeptinbalanceandnotto focusexclusivelyonloadvariabilityorwindramping.Thatsaid,ifnecessary,handlingwind rampingcouldtakemultipleapproaches.

Oneapproachistounderstandhowlargethevariabilitycanbe,determinewhether therearesystemimpacts,andassesswhetherthatvariabilitycanbemanagedwith existingsystemresourcesviasufficientdispatchablecapacitytorampupanddown oppositeofchangesinwindpower,andsufficientregulationorloadfollowingto maintaininterconnectionsandsystemperformancewithinacceptablelimits. Asecondapproachistomanagevariabilitythroughrampratelimits,powerlimitsor curtailments,orusingwindforecastingtopredictvariabilityandhavingavailable systemresourcestomanagethevariability(Kehleretal.2005). Anotherapproachisformultiplecontrolareastocooperateandundertakesuchactions assharingreservesorenergyimbalances.

Rampingeventswillbeofmoreconcerntosmallgrids,orgridswithfewexternal interconnections,orgridswithalargeconcentrationofwindprojectsinoneregion.Underthese circumstances,gridsareunlikelytohavethedeepstackofgeneratingresources,accessto balancingmarketsortheinterconnectionstootherregionsorthegeographicdiversityofwind resourcestohelpmanagewindrampingevents.Examplesofthisincludethefollowing:

Forits204MWwindproject,PublicServiceofNewMexico(PNM)hasreportedramps ofupto50MWin1minute;upto100MWin10minutes,andupto200MWin30 minutes.Becauseofhighnaturalgasprices,PNMisusingoldercoalunitsthatrampat 4to8MWperminutetofollowthewindgenerationinsteadofnaturalgasunits.PNM hasnothadsuccessinfindingbalancingsuppliesinthemarket(Ellis2005). Initswindintegrationstudiesusingpowersimulationmodels,theAlbertaElectric SystemOperator(AESO)foundthatwhilewindoutputisrandomoverlongperiods, windgenerationcouldshowpersistentrampingovershortperiods.At225MWofwind capacityinAlberta,AESOdeterminedthataveragerampingratesstayedwithin300 MW/hour,butathigherwindpenetrationlevels,largerandmorepersistentwind rampingrateswerefound.AESOisaheavilythermalbasedsystemandisrelatively selfcontained,withasinglesynchronousconnectiontoWesternCanadaandtheUnited States(a500kVline),heighteningvariablerenewableenergyintegrationchallenges (Kehleretal.2005). Transpower,theNewZealandgridoperator,reviewedthefirsttwomonthsoperations oftwowindprojectswithatotalcapacityof164MW.Transpowernotedthatthe combinedwindoutputincreasedbymorethan100MWinafiveminutedispatch period,andthatthereweretwooccasionswhenthecombinedoutputincreasedfrom nearzeroto150MWin15minutes.TranspowerhasasingleHDVClinethatconnects thenorthernandsouthernpartsofNewZealand(EnergyLinkLtd.2005).

Thesegridoperatorsfacechallengesfromwindramps,andwithvariablerenewableenergy integrationingeneral,becauseofsomeorallofthefollowingfactors:inflexiblefuelmix;small

47

controlarea;lackofabalancingmarket;andlack(orinadequateamount)ofinterconnections withotherentities.Forthesereasons,itisnotsurprisingthatrampratelimitsonwindhave beenproposedbygridoperatorsthathavesomeorallofthesefactors.Examplesincludethe following:

EirGridinIrelandthatlimitsthepositiveramprateto130MWperminute. Scotlandwherethepositiveramprateislimitedto110MWperminute,dependingon thecapacityofthewindproject,andthedownwardramprateto3.3%ofpoweroutput perminute. AESOhasproposedtolimitsystemwiderampratesforwindprojectsto4MWper minuteand,atleasttemporarily,overallwindpenetrationto900MW(AESO2006).

AnexamplewheretheTSOslimitthepositiveramprateofwindturbinesto10%ofratedpower perminutemaybefoundinGermany.Otherprovisionsonactivepowerchangesarediscussed inthegridcodesectionlaterinthispaper. Anexampleofawindintegrationstudyforalargecontrolareawitharelativelydeepresource stackisGeneralElectricswindintegrationstudyforNYSERDA.Thesimulationexaminedthe potentialimpactsof10%wind(3,300MW)ontheNewYorkgrid.GEdeterminedthatthe hourlychangesinwindgenerationweregenerallywithin+/600MW,withtheextremevalues lessthan1,200MW(seeFigure5).

Figure 5: Simulated hourly wind generation changes in New York, 2001 03

Source: Piwko, Richard, et al. 2005. The Effects of Integrating Wind Power on Transmission System Planning, Reliability and Operations: Report on Phase 2. New York State Energy Research Development Authority. Available at http://www.nyserda.org/publications/wind_integration_report.pdf.

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TheGEwindintegrationstudyforNYSERDAalsodiscussestheinteractionofwindandload ramping.InNewYork,windgenerationhasatendencytodropoffduringthemorningload rise,potentiallyaddingtotherampingrequirements.GEdeterminedthatwithoutwind,31%of thesamplesummerhourshaverampriserates+/2,000MW/hr,withtheworstsinglehour rising2,575MW.Withwind,thisincreasesto34%ofhourswithriserates+/2,000MW/hr,and aworstsinglehourlyriseof2,756MW.GEfoundsimilartrendsduringwinterperiods,withthe numberofhourswith+/2,000MW/hrincreasingfrom2%to4%withwind,andthesingle worsehourchangingfrom2,087MW/hrwithoutwindto2,497MW/hrwithwind.GE determinedthatthenetimpactonloadfollowingwaswithinthecapabilityoftheNewYork ISOtomeet. GEsuggestedthatwindgeneratorsbeincentivizedtoreducewindgenerationwhenenergy spotpricesarelowornegative,toavoidthepossibilityofsystemreliabilitybeingthreatenedby highwindgenerationtrippingoffcriticalbaseloadgeneratorswithlongstarttimes.GEalso recommendedthattheNewYorkISOhavetheabilitytolimitorcurtailwindgenerationfor systemreliabilityreasons,suchastemporarylocaltransmissionlimitationsorifsevereweather isexpected.Thecurtailmentwouldbeimposedonaprojectbasis,i.e.,thewindoperatorcould choosetomeettheproposedcurtailmentthroughlimitingproductionorbyshuttingdown individualwindturbines,nottheentirewindplant(Piwkoetal.2005). TheIAPwillassesswhetherrampingfromvariablerenewableenergygenerationwillbean issue,andifso,whetheroperationalandmitigationstrategiesmaybenecessary,orwhether Californiahastheabilitytomanageramping.Californiawilllikelyhavemoreabilitytomanage rampingthansomeoftheexamplespresentedearlierbecauseofthesizeoftheCaliforniagrid andcontrolarea,theextentofCaliforniasinterconnectionswithotherstates,andthedepthof Californiasresourcestack. AnEnergyCommissionconsultantreportpreliminarilyexaminedrampingcapabilityinthe CAISObasedonpubliclyavailabledataanddeterminedthattheCAISOhadsufficientramping capabilitytoaccommodateloadvariabilityandthecurrentlevelofvariablerenewableenergy generation.Therampingcapabilityestimatesinthereportareprobablylow,asthedatadidnot includehydroandsomecogenerationandnaturalgasunits.Furthermore,theanalysis determinedthattherampingrequirementsofvariablerenewableenergygeneratorsappearto besignificantlylowerthantherampingrequirementsofloadwithintheCAISO.Thermal rampingcapabilityexceededloadrampingrequirementsmorethan97%ofthetimein2002. ThereportfoundthatthepeakrampuprequirementsforwindgenerationoccurredinMay whilethepeakrampdownrequirementsoccurredinFebruary.Rampingrequirementsfor windgenerationduringthesummermonthsweretypicallylessthan7MW/minute.Therewere somerampupandrampdownrequirementsthatexceeded10MW/minute,asindicatedin Figure6below(Shiuetal.2006).

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Figure 6: Estimated total wind ramping requirements in California 2002

Source: Shiu, Henry; Milligan, Michael; Kirby, Brendan; Jackson, Kevin. June 2006. California Renewables Portfolio Standard Renewable Generation Integration Cost Analysis: Multi-Year Analysis Results and Recommendations. California Energy Commission Consultant Report. Available at http://www.energy.ca.gov/2006publications/CEC-500-2006-064/CEC-500-2006064.PDF.

Rampingneedsforsolargenerationwerealsomeasuredforthe350MWofsolarcapacityin 2002.Solargenerationhasadiurnalpatternthatnecessitatesrampinginthemorningand evening.Figure7providesthesolarrampingrequirementsfor2002.

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Figure 7: Estimated solar ramping requirements in California - 2002

Source: Shiu, Henry; Milligan, Michael; Kirby, Brendan; Jackson, Kevin. June 2006. California

Renewables Portfolio Standard Renewable Generation Integration Cost Analysis: Multi-Year Analysis Results and Recommendations. California Energy Commission Consultant Report.
Available at http://www.energy.ca.gov/2006publications/CEC-500-2006-064/CEC-500-2006064.PDF.

4.3

Transmission Rating and Generation Overflow

A2005EnergyCommissionconsultantreportsuggestedthatthefrequencyresponseof generatorsinCaliforniaandthroughouttheWECChavedecreasedinrecentyearsbecauseof theadditionofseveralgeneratingresourcesoperatingatbaseloadwithlimitedupward capability.That,inturn,couldleadtoreducedtransmissionpathratingsintoCaliforniaand throughoutWECC.Thatsamereportfoundthatasignificantresourceshifttomorerenewable resourcesinWECC,withoutcorrespondingattentiontothethermalcapabilityofgenerators, voltagesupportandhowgeneratorsperformduringcontingencyevents,couldcompoundthis issue(Dyeretal.2005).Thereportconcludedthattheimpact,ifany,wouldarisemostlikely duringnonpeakhours. ThedenareportperhapscameclosesttoconsideringtheissuesraisedintheEnergy Commissionsconsultantreport.Thedenareportdeterminedthatseveralwindprojectsin Germanywereconstructedbeforehavingtomeetgridcodes,meaningthatthewindprojects tripoffquicklyinresponsetogridfaults.Infact,thedenareportdeterminedthatreliability criteriawouldhavebeenviolatedin2003understrongwindconditionswithfaultsinthe transmissionnetwork.Thedroppingoffofwindturbinesinlargenumberscouldcontributetoa violationofUCTEreliabilityrules(i.e.,therequirementthat3,000MWofcapacitynotbe trippedoffatonce).Thedenareportfoundthatnewwindturbinesusingmoreadvanced technology(viagridcodes),andreplacingolderturbinesovertimethroughrepoweringwould resolvethisissueuntil2010inNorthwesternGermany,and2015inNortheasternGermany. However,reliabilityissuesreemergeinNorthwesternGermanyby2015,asconventionalplants begintoshutdownbecauseofageorbecauseofthemandatoryphasingoutofnuclearpower.

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UndertheNuclearExitLaw,nuclearpoweristobephasedoutandlimitedtoonly9%of totalgenerationcapacityby2020.Alongwithexpectedretirementsofolderconventialunits,the denareportpredictedtheretirementof40GWofconventionalgenerationcapacityby2020,out ofcurrentinstalledcapacityof121GW.Infact,denacouldnotderiveagridsolutionforthe currentsystemwithgreaterthan20%penetrationofrenewables(7.5%onshorewind,5% offshorewindand7.5%otherrenewables).Additionalsupportfromphaseshifters,andthe furtherrepoweringofwindturbinesandadditionalgridrequirementsforwindturbineswillbe necessary,accordingtodena.Thiswillbethefocusofthenextphaseofdenasstudyforthe periodupto2025(dena2005).Amongotherthings,thenewdenaprojectwillalsoincludean assessmentofstorageoptions;sensitivitystudiesonstormfrontsandtheimpactsongrid reliability;updatingconceptsinthefirstdenastudyontransmittingoffshorewindenergyto demandcentersonland;improvingwindandloadforecastaccuracy;andassessingwhether windcanprovidereserves.ThesecondphaseofthedenastudybeganinMay2006andis scheduledtotakeatleast15months(Ensslin2006). ThecombinationofwindfromDenmarkandGermanycanstresstheEuropeantransmission gridattimes,especiallyduringtimesofhighwindproductionandlowdemand.Insufficient northtosouthtransmissioncapacityinGermanyresultsinwindgenerationfromNorthern Germany,attimes,beingtransmittedtocustomersinSouthernGermanyviathetransmission networksoftheNetherlands,BelgiumandFrance.ThesystemoperatorintheNetherlands notedthattransmissioncapacitybetweenGermanyandtheNetherlands,BelgiumandFrance hasbeenseriouslycongestedandsystemstabilitythreatenedattimesofhighwindoutputin GermanyandDenmarkandtimesoflowdemand,leadingtoexportsofexcessenergy(Guland Stenzel2005).

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5.0 Mitigation and Operating Solutions To Date

Asmorewindgenerationcomesonline,severalstrategieshavebeenproposedand implementedtointegratewind.Theseincludewindforecasting,gridcodes,curtailment,wind turbinemodelingandverification,demandresponse,andtransmissionplanningand development.Thesearediscussedbelowinmoredetail.

5.1

Wind Forecasting

Aswindpenetrationincreases,windforecastinghasbecomemoreandmoreimportant.In general,windgenerationcanbepredictedmoreaccuratelythecloseritoccurstoactual operation.Windgenerationcanbepredictedwithabout90%accuracyonehourahead,70% accuracyninehoursahead,and50%accuracy36hoursahead(Holttinen2004). Windforecastingmethodscanberoughlycategorizedintotwotypes:thosethatapply numericalweatherpredictionmodelswithequationsbasedonthephysicsoftheatmosphere, andthosethatapplystatisticaltechniquestoproduceawindforecastfromavailablenumerical weatherpredictionmodels(Table11).Anexampleofaphysicalwindforecastingprogramthat usesphysicalequationsisthePrediktorsystemdevelopedbyRisoNationalLaboratoryin Denmark,whiletheInstitutfrSolareEnergieversorgungstechniks(ISET)WindPower ManagementSystem(WPMS)inGermanyandtheWindPowerPredictionTool(WPPT) developedbyEltra,Elsam,andtheDepartmentofInformaticsandMathematicalModelingat theTechnicalUniversityofDenmarkareexamplesofstatisticalwindforecasts. Manywindforecastingsystems,includingmostofthoseusedintheUnitedStates,areusing bothnumericalmodelsandadvancedstatisticalmethods.Forexample,thesystemsfromU.S. forecastingproviders,includingWindLogics,3TierEnvironmentalForecastGroupandAWS TrueWind,uselearningsystemsbasedonArtificialNeuralNetsorSupportVectorMachinesfor downscalingfromregionalphysicalmodelstolocalwindplants.Aswewillfurtherdiscuss below,itisalsoincreasingcommontouseanensembleofmultiplephysicalweatherforecast modelsandhigherresolutionmesoscalemodelsinwindforecastingsystems.

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Table 11. Overview of operational short-term wind power forecast models in Europe
Prediction Model Prediktor Model Developer RisNational Laboratory* (DK) IMM, Technical University of Denmark* University of Oldenburg and Energy & Meteo Systems (DE) Armines/Ecole des Mines de Paris (F) RAL (UK) University Carlos III, Madrid Red Elctrica de Espaa CENER (ES) Gamesa (ES) Garrad Hassan (UK) Method Physical Operational Status, Region Spain, Denmark, Ireland, Germany, (USA) 2.5 GW, Denmark (East and West) 12 GW, Germany Operational Since 1994

WPPT Previento

Statistical Physical

1994 2002

AWPPS (MoreCare) RAL (More Care) Siprelico LocalPredRegioPred Casandra GH Forecaster

Statistical, FuzzyANN Statistical Statistical Physical Physical Physical and Statistical Physical and Statistical Physical

Ireland, Crete, Madeira

1998, 2002

Ireland 4GW, Spain Spain Spain, Portugal and USA Spain, Ireland, UK (USA) Australia Spain (represented through Meteosim) and USA Under development

-2002 2001 2003 2004

eWind

TrueWind (USA)

1998

HIRPOM

AWPT

University College Cork, Ireland Danish Meteorological Institute ISET (DE)

--

AleaWindo Aleasoft (ES) Scirocco Aeolis (NL) Metrological MBB Meteotemp No specific model name * Ris and IMM form the Zephyr collaboration.

Statistical, ANN Statistical Physical Physical Physical

15 GW, Germany Spain Netherlands, Spain Spain Spain

2001 2004 2004 2004 2004

Source: Van Hulle, Fran. 2005. Large Scale Integration of Wind Energy in the European Power Supply. Brussels, Belgium: European Wind Energy Association. Available at http://www.ewea.org/fileadmin/ewea_documents/documents/publications/grid/051215_Grid_report.pdf.

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Statisticalwindforecastingtoolsfocusoncorrelationrelationshipsbetweenweatherpredictions andwindproduction.Thesemayemploymultivariablestatisticalmethodsorlearningsystems suchasneuralnetworks.Statisticalwindforecastingcanworkwellifagoodweatherforecast modelisalreadyavailable,buttheperformanceisalsodependentonhavingaccesstorealtime datafromthewindplant.Inaddition,measureddataoverseveralmonthsisalsorequiredto trainthesystembeforemakingwindforecastpredictions(Ernst2005a).Physicalwindforecasts arebasedonmeteorologicaldepictionsoftheatmosphere,withnumericalweatherpredictions spatiallydefinedtoderivethewindspeeds.Projectedwindoutputisdeterminedbymodeling expectedwindspeedswiththepowercurveofthewindturbines(Fockenetal.2005).Physical equationwindforecastingtoolsrequiretheexactlocationandenvironmentofthewindprojects andneedcomputationaltimetotransformthewindspeedforecastingtowindenergyforecasts (Ernst2005a).Theydonotnecessarilyrequiremeasureddatatoproduceaforecast,although measureddatacanbeusedtoimproveforecastaccuracy(Fockenetal.2005). Notincludedinthisdescriptionofwindforecastsissimplepersistence,wherecurrentwind generationisforecastedtobethesameinfuturehours.Persistenceissometimesknownas whatyouseeiswhatyouget.Thatsaid,becauseweatherpatternsmaynotchangefrom hourtohour,persistenceinshorttimeframes(lessthan6hours)canbereasonablyaccurate (Ernst2005a). Windforecastingalsodiffersineachcountrybyhowmanywindprojectsareactually measured,andhowthemeasurementsareusedindeterminingthewindforecast.InGermany, 36windprojectsintheE.OnNetzserviceterritoryaremonitored,representing1,330MW(less than10%ofwindcapacityinGermany),andthenfedintoanalgorithmtodevelopthewind forecast(E.OnNetz2005).Moreactualwindmeasurementdatacancontributetoforecast accuracy,butatahighercostfordatacollection.Furthermore,developmentinDenmarkand Germanyhasnotbeenofseverallargewindfarmsbutofsmallcollectionsofturbines,makingit moredifficulttocollectmeasurementdata(Ernst2005a). Turningtowindforecastingperformance,themeanabsoluteerror(MAE)byinstalledcapacity forwindforecastinginDenmarkistypicallybetween8and9%,whichisequivalenttoa38%of yearlyproductionmiscalculationformarketoperations(EriksenandHilger2005).Astudyof oneyearsworthofdatadeterminedthatwhenforecasting1,900MWofwindinDenmarksix hoursahead,forecasterrorswerewithin100MW61%ofthetime.Largeerrorsofover500 MWoccurredonlyabout1%ofthetime.Whenforecasting36hoursahead,errorswerewithin 100MW37%ofthetime,andlargeerrorsofover500MWoccurred7%ofthetime(Holttinen 2004). InGermany,therootsquaremeanerror(RSME)ofwindforecastsis5%to8%ofinstalledwind capacitywithmaximumerrorsrangingfrom30%to40%ofinstalledwindcapacity.Onafour houraheadbasis,theRSMEis3.8%,withamaximumerrorrangingfrom28%to36%. Generally,largeerrorsover20%occur3%ofthetime,whiletheforecasterrorsarewithin10% about86%ofthetime(Ernst2005b).E.OnNetzreportedthatfor2003,theaveragenegative windforecastingerrorwas370MWandtheaveragepositivewindforecastingerrorwas477 MW.Individualdeviationscouldrangefrom2,532MWto3,999MW(E.OnNetz2004).

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InSpain,theAsociacinEmpresarialElica(AEE),theSpanishwindenergyassociation,is engagedwithindustrystakeholdersandRedElectriciadeEspana(REE)inaforecasting exercisetoanalyzetheresultsofsixdifferentwindforecastingmodelsappliedtosevenwind plants.AEEdeterminedthataggregatingmultiplewindprojectsdoesevenoutwind imbalances,butfoundthatthemeanabsoluteproductionerrorofwindforecastswas25%. Further,AEEsaidcurrentwindforecastingtoolscannotreducethiserrorratewithout improvementsinmeteorologicalinputdataandrealtimewindproductionandresourcedata (Cea2006b). Asdiscussedearlier,thevariationsofwindpowergenerationcanbeattributedtoweather frontspassingthroughthearea,resultinginhighwinds,andthenwinddecreasingagainafter theweatherfrontpassesthrough.That,inturn,caninfluencetheaccuracyofwindforecasts. Forinstance,windforecastsmaypredicttheoccurrenceofastormbutthestormmayoccura fewhoursaheadorafewhoursbehindthewindforecast,resultinginwhatiscalledphase errors(VanHulle2005). Itisdifficulttocomparewindforecastingindifferentcountries,astheterrainandthewind resourcesaredifferent.Forexample,Denmarkisrelativelyflat,aidingwindforecastaccuracy, buttherearefewerdownperiodsforwindandaveragewindproductionishigher,leadingto higherforecasterrors. Anothercontributortowindforecastingerrorsistherelativelylowqualityofmeteorological data,inpartbecausetrackingexactvaluesforregionsandtimehavenotbeenasnecessaryfor otherapplications(InternationalEnergyAgency2005a).Mostforecastinghasbeenfocusedon otherweatheritems,suchasprecipitationandtemperature,withalowerresolutionthanis requiredforwindgeneration.Anaccuracyof23meters/secondand34hourshasgenerally beenenoughforgeneralweatherforecasts,butcanresultinlargeerrorsforestimatingwind powerproduction(Holttinen2004).Otherbusinessandgovernmentalentitiesarebecoming interestedinfiner,morepreciseweatherforecasting,andthatmayinturnleadtomore improvedwindforecasting. Anevaluationofwindforecastingmethods,theAnemosproject,compared11modelsforsix windprojectsinfourEuropeancountriesandfoundthemodelsweresitedependent,thatnot onesinglemodelwasbestatallsites,andthemeanerrorofallmodelswasconnectedtothe complexityoftheterrain.Advancedstatisticalmodelsdowellinmostcasesbutrequiretraining withhalfayearofdatabeforeperformingsatisfactorily.Physicaltoolscanhaveforecastsready beforethewindprojectisconstructedandcanbenefitfrommeasureddata,butrequirelarge computationalfacilitiesrunasaservicebywindforecastingcompanies(VanHulle2005). Asmentionedabove,variousentitiesarenowusingorexperimentingwithcombiningstatistical andphysicaltechniques,ormultipleweatherforecasts,inordertoimprovewindforecasting.In Denmark,Energinet.dkislookingatensembleforecasting,i.e.,using25differentwind forecastsanddetermininganaverageanddistributionfortheforecasts.Energinet.dkbelieves thiscouldimprovetheforecastaccuracybyabout20%(EriksenandHilger2005).The RheinischWestflischesElektrizittswerkAktiengesellschaft(RWE)TSOinGermanyis

56

experimentingwithcombiningdifferentweatherforecastingmodelsintoasingleforecastto minimizewindforecasterrors.Differentweightswillbeappliedtodifferentwindforecasting approaches,dependingontheweatherpatternandhoweffectiveeachwindforecastingmethod isconsideredtobewithdifferentweatherpatterns.Earlyresultshaveprovedpromising,with therootsquaremeanerrorbeingreducedfrom5%(bestsingleweathermodel)to3.9%usingan inindividualcombinationofseveralmodelsforeachweathercircumstances(Ernst2006a).The Anemosproject,inadditiontocomparingdifferentwindforecastingapproaches,istestingnew windforecastingmethodsandprogramsinsevencountries(Kariniotakis2006). SeveralEuropeanstudiesmeasuredthegridandeconomicimpactsofnotusingwind forecasting.Theylookedattheimpactofallowingwindtosimplyshowupinrealtimeas comparedwithusingawindforecastingtoscheduleunits.Underthisnowindforecasting scenario,conventionalunitsarescheduledtorunbuttheiroutputisreducedwhenwind generationappears,resultinginmorepartloadedconventionalunitsandreducedplant efficiencies.Underawindforecastingscenario,conventionalunitsmaynotbecommitted,and thoseunitsthatarecommittedrunmoreefficiently(Grossetal.2006).IntheUnitedStates,the GEstudyforNewYorkStatedeterminedthatusingstateoftheartwindforecastsresultsina netbenefitof$95millionascomparedtolettingwindsimplyshowupinrealtimeandbacking offconventionalgeneration.Aperfectforecastaddedanadditional$25millioninnetbenefits (Piwkoetal.2005). XcelEnergyinMinnesotaisfundingaprojecttointegratewindforecastingintoutilitycontrol roomoperations.Theprojectwillassesscontrolroomrequirementsforutilitywidewind forecasting;developunitcommitmentandloadforecasts;andconductresearchand developmentondefensiveoperatingstrategies.Defensiveoperatingstrategiesinclude determiningthevalueofadditionaloffsitemettowers,highwindforecastingandwarning systems,andarapidupdatewindforecastingmodel.Sensitivityanalyseswillbeperformedat variouswindpenetrationlevelsupto50%ofsystemgenerationcapacityfromwindenergy (Ahlstrom2005). In2002,theCAISObecamethefirst,andtodate,theonlyregionaltransmissionoperatorinthe UnitedStatestousecentralizedwindforecastingtopredicttheoutputofwindgeneration.The ParticipatingIntermittentResourceProgram(PIRP)forwindgeneratorsisvoluntary.Wind generatorsthatdoparticipatepaytheCAISOa$0.10/MWhfee;agreetostayinPIRPforone year;installCAISOtelemetryequipment;scheduleconsistentlywiththeCAISOsforecastof windgenerationanddonotmakeadvanceenergybidsintotheCaliforniamarketinorderto mitigateconcernsthatwindgeneratorswouldtrytogamethemarket.Thepositiveand negativeimbalancesassociatedwithwindpowergeneratorsarenettedoutmonthly,withthe notionthattheseimbalanceswillcanceleachotheroutovertime. AWSTrueWindprovidestheMWforecaststothePIRPschedulingcoordinator,including:

Houraheadforecastsforeachofthenextsevenhours,by15minutesaftereachhour (Houraheadisdefinedas2hoursand45minutesbeforerealtime); Nextdaycapacityforecastsforeachhourofthenextday,submittedby5:30a.m.;and

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Extendedhourlycapacityforecastsfordaystwo,threeandfour,alsodeliveredby5:30 a.m.onThursdaysandFridaysandselecteddaysbeforeholidays.

Asoftheendof2005,11windprojectsareinthePIRPprogram,amountingto465.34MW.For thenextoperatinghourforecasts,themeanaverageerrorhasrangedfrom1014%ofinstalled capacity,andthebiashasrangedfrom0.2%to0.9%ofmonthlyproduction.Forthenextday forecasts,themeanaverageerrorhasrangedfrom13%to18%ofinstalledcapacity.AWS TrueWindnotesthatcommunicationproblemshaveresultedinmissingdata(Zack2005).The CAISOnotesthat11%ofthedatawaseithermissingorerrant(i.e.windspeedsinexcessof200 mph)(Blatchfordetal.2006).TherelativelylowlevelofwindparticipationinPIRPisalsoof concern,althoughsomeofthismaybeduetothelargenumberofwindgeneratorsthatare qualifyingfacilitiesunderthePublicUtilityRegulatoryPoliciesAct,andbyvirtueofcontract, canrelyontheutilitypowerpurchaserstohandlescheduling.Withover2,000MWofsolar thermalgenerationproposedinCalifornia,itislikelythesegeneratorswilljointhePIRP programaswell. Inaddition,thetencent/MWhfeehasbeeninsufficientfortheCAISOtorecovertheforecast serviceprovidersfee.Monthlynettingofdeviationsalsohasbeeninadequatetocoverthe CAISOscostsofprocuringimbalanceenergy,andshortfallsareassessedtomarketparticipants (includingtheparticipatingintermittentresourcesinPIRP)throughanassessmentonnet negativedeviations.Inall,theCAISOestimatedthat$2.3millioninPIRPavoidedchargeswere notbeingrecovereddirectlyfromPIRPparticipantsin2005.TheCAISOnotes,though,that improvementsinwindforecastingmethodologyandperformancemayreduceimbalance charges,andthatthetotalbenefitsandcostsofPIRPwillchangeastheamountofgeneration participatinginPIRPgrowsorasmarketpriceschange(CaliforniaIndependentSystem Operator2006b). TheCAISOhasundertakenaninitiativetoimprovePIRP.Recommendationsinclude temporarilyshuttingoffthebiasandassessingtheimpactonforecastperformanceandthe allocationofcoststoPIRPparticipants,aswellasimprovingthecapabilitytodetectandrepair poorqualitydata(Blatchfordetal.2006).Inaddition,theCAISOhasgrappledwithexportsof energyinPIRP,whereenergyinthePIRPprogramthatissupplementedbyimbalanceenergyis thenexportedasafirmexportoutsidetheCAISOcontrolarea(CaliforniaIndependentSystem Operator2006b).TheCaliforniaISOisworkingwithstakeholderstodesignasolutionthat wouldgrandfatherexistingcontractswithinPIRPandtreatexportsfromPIRPonacomparable basiswithotherexportsfromtheCAISO(Johnson2006).InDecember2006,FERCapproveda CAISOpetitiontochargeanexportfeetoPIRPfacilitiesthatexportenergyoutsideofthe CAISOcontrolarea(FederalEnergyRegulatoryCommission[FERC]2006a). TheEnergyCommissionandtheElectricPowerResearchInstitute(EPRI)haveteamedin sponsoringwindforecastingprojectstoimprovePIRP.Oneprojectfocusedondesigningazero tothreehourfiveminuteforecastingsystemthroughusingartificialneuralnetworksandwind productiontimeseriesdata.Using2004windproductiondata,AWSTrueWinddeterminedthe meanaverageerrorrangedfrom0.5%ofcapacityfor5minutesaheadto46%forthreehours ahead.Theprojectalsolookedatsourcesoferrorincludingvaryinggridsize.Aseparateproject

58

evaluateddifferentforecastmethodsfordayaheadforecasting,anddeterminedthatthe ensembleforecastsresultin35%lowermeanaverageforecasterrors.Resultswillbe implementedinthePIRPprogram(Zack2005).

5.2

Grid Codes

AsmorewindcapacitycomesonlineinEurope,TSOshavedevelopedreliabilitystandardsand requirementsforwindturbinessometimesknownasgridcodes.Germanyintroducedtheir windgridcodein2003,followedbyDenmarksTSOsinlate2004.Britain,Irelandandthe UnitedStateshavesincefollowedwithwindgridcodesissuedin2005,andSpainin2006. Theintentofgridcodesistoensurethatwindprojectsdonotnegativelyimpactreliability.A largeamountofwindcapacitytrippingofflineinresponsetoagriddisturbancecouldleadtoa fallinvoltageand/orfrequency.That,inturn,couldcontributetoothergeneratorstrippingoff thegridandcouldresultinnothavingenoughgenerationtomeetload.Inareaswithlarge amountsofwindsuchasGermany,thetrippingofasignificantamountofwindcouldresultin thelossofmorethan3,000MWofwindgeneration,whichwouldthereforeviolateUCTE reliabilityrules.InSpain,windoutagesofupto500MWmayoccurfromfaultsinthe transmissionordistributionnetwork.TheUnitedKingdomsetsitscontingencyplanningforthe maximumandinstantlossof1,320MW.Thatcountryfoundthattheearlynonsynchronous windturbineswouldtripatvoltagedropsof80%ofnominalvoltage,possiblyresultinginthe lossof1,320MWofconventionalgenerationifseveraladjacentwindprojectstrippedofflineat once(JohnsonandTleis2005). Developinggridcodescantakesometime,andinsomeinstances,windturbinedevelopment canproceedrapidlywhilegridcodesareunderdeliberation.AlthoughGermanyadoptedgrid coderequirementsin2001and2003,forinstance,windcapacityincreasedsignificantlyin Germanybutwithoutmeetingcurrentgridcodeprovisionssuchasfaultridethrough requirements.(Eriksenetal.2005). Asgridcodesforwindproliferate,somehavecalledforauniformgridcodeforwind.UCTE, forinstance,hascalledforaharmonizedinternationalgridcodeforwindturbines(UCTE 2005a).Meanwhile,somewindturbinemanufacturershaveexpressedfrustrationwiththe divergentgridcodes,contendingthatwindturbineswillbedesignedforthelargestmarkets andforthestrictestgridcoderequirements,addingtocosts.Someestimatethatlargewind turbinemanufacturershavefourtofivestaffmemberstomonitorgridcodes,andthatthefault ridethroughprovisionscanincreasethetotalturbinecostsbyupto5%(Matevosyanetal. 2005).TheEuropeanWindEnergyAssociationbelievesitwouldbedifficulttodesignaEurope widegridcodeforwindbecauseofdifferencesintheenergymix,thestrengthofthe interconnections,thesizeofthegrid,andthewindpenetrationlevelsforeachcountry.Eachof thesefactorsaffectsthetechnicalrequirementsforagridcodeforwind(VanHulle2005). Thegridcodeshaveemergedonatransmissionoperatorbytransmissionoperatorbasis,and differencesbetweenthegridcodeshavenaturallyresulted.Todate,gridcodeshavefeatured thesemajorthemes:

59

Requiringwindturbinestoridethroughgridfaults IncreaseordecreasepowergenerationattheTSOsrequest;supplyreactivepower Adjustpowergenerationinresponsetofrequencychanges Controlorlimitrampingincreases

FaultRideThroughRequirement:Generally,faultridethroughrequirementsspecifythatwind generatorsmuststayconnectedforaperiodoftimewhenfaultsoccuronthetransmission systemandvoltagedrops(VanHulle2005).Allwindgridcodeshavesometypeoffaultride throughrequirement,althoughtheserequirementsdifferbycountry,andevenbyTSO.For example,Denmarkrequireswindturbinestostayonlinefor100millisecondsfromavoltage dropto25%ofnominalnetworkvoltage,whileIrelandrequireswindturbinestostay connectedfor625millisecondsfromavoltagedropto15%ofnominalnetworkvoltage(see Table12)(Milborrow2005b).AstricterexampleistheUnitedKingdomsgridcodethatrequires windgeneratorstostayinterconnectedatvoltagedropsdowntozerofor140milliseconds (Massy2005).AWECCtaskforceisconsideringpossiblechangestoWECCscurrentlow voltageridethroughstandardtolowertheminimumvoltagetoleranceperiodtozeroatthe pointofinterconnectionfor12cycles(about1/5ofasecond)(Ellis2006).

Table 12. Examples of wind grid codes

Grid Code Voltage Level Voltage Recovery During Fault (Milliseconds) (% Nominal) Denmark 100 25 1000 Germany (E. On) 150 0 1500 Ireland (Eir Grid) 625 15 3000 UK (NGT) 140 0 1200 Spain 500 20 1000 United States 150 0* NA * As of 2008. For 2007 and for normally cleared three-phase faults, wind turbines must be able to ride through voltages down to 15% at the point of interconnection for 150 milliseconds.
Source: Milborrow, David. 2005b. Going Mainstream at the Grid Face. Windpower Monthly, September 2005, p. 49. Reproduced by permission. United States provisions drawn from Federal Energy Regulatory Commission. December 12, 2005. Order No. 661-A: Interconnection for Wind Energy.

Fault Duration (Milliseconds)

FaultridethroughrequirementsmayalsoapplydifferentlybyTSO,dependingonthe provisions.TheUnitedKingdomsgridcodeappliestolargeandmediumwindprojectswitha sitingpermitandallwindprojectsconnectedtothetransmissiongrid.InEnglandandWales, thistranslatestolargewindprojectsover100MWormediumprojectsbetween50and100MW thatareinterconnectedtothetransmissionnetworkatbetween275kVand400kV.Itshouldbe notedthatsmallerwindprojectsinterconnectedwiththedistributionnetworkmayhave agreementswiththeNGTgridoperatortocomplywithcertainpartsoftheUnitedKingdoms gridcode.InScotland,though,largewindplantsaredefinedasover30MW,withmedium sizedplantsareconsideredanywindplantover5MW,andthetransmissionnetworkbeginsat

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132kV.Therefore,theUnitedKingdomsgridcodewilllikelyapplytomorewindgeneratorsin ScotlandthanintherestoftheUnitedKingdom(Massy2005). Theinterplaywithfaultridethroughrequirementsandinterconnectingtothedistributiongrid, ratherthetransmissiongrid,canalsobechallenging.WindprojectsinNewZealandwillmostly beconnectedtothedistributiongridinsteadofthetransmissiongrid.Whileitisclearthatwind projectsshouldstayconnectedifthereisafaultonthetransmissiongrid,ifthereisafaulton thedistributiongridandthecircuitbreakerthatconnectsthedistributionfeedertothe transmissiongridopens,thewindprojectshouldperhapstripofflinetopreventcreatingan islandednetwork.Tohandlebothsituations,windprojectswouldneedvoltageridethrough capabilityandantiislandingprotection(EnergyLinkLtd.2005). FrequencyResponse:Thefrequencyinapowersystemreflectsthebalanceorimbalancebetween productionandconsumption.ThesystemfrequencyinEuropeismaintainedatoraround50 Hz,whileitismaintainedat60HzintheUnitedStates.InEurope,primarycontrolunitswith frequencydetectingequipmentwillincreaseordecreasegeneration,rangingfromonetothirty seconds,tomaintainfrequency.Secondarycontrolunitswillbetriggeredwithin1015minutes torelieveprimarycontrolunits.Automaticgenerationcontrolisusedonsecondarycontrol unitsinsomecountries,whilethesystemoperatormayusemanualcontrolinothercountries. EirGridinIrelandrequireswindprojectstoprovideprimaryfrequencycontrolof35%of poweroutputandtoprovidesecondaryfrequencycontrolifcalledupon.InDenmark, Energinetdkrequireswindprojectstoprovidesecondaryfrequencycontrolafterasystemfault, orifpartofthegridisisolated(alsocalledislanded)fromthedisconnectionofseverallarge transmissionlines(Matevosyanetal.2005).TheUnitedKingdomsTSOalsorequiresthis capability,andotherTSOswilllikelyrequireitaswindpenetrationincreases,particularlyfor lowdemand,highwindsituations(VanHulle2005).Tomeetthisrequirement,windturbines operateatlessthanfulloutputsuchthatbladepitchcanbeadjustedtoincreasegeneration whencalledupon.Someassertthatthefinancialconsequencestoawindgeneratorforholding backoutputtomeetfrequencyresponserequirementsaretoosevere,andconventional generatorscanmeetthisrequirementmoreeasilyandatalowercost(Milborrow2005b). However,intheUnitedKingdom,windgeneratorscanspecifythebidpriceatwhichtheyare willingtobedeloaded(generateatlessthanfulloutput).Furthermore,thewindgenerator willreceivetwopaymentsforsupplyingfrequencyresponse(holdingandresponseenergy payments)(JohnsonandTleis2005).Alternatively,windgeneratorscouldperhapspurchase frequencycontrolobligationfromanothergenerator. RampRateLimitations:SomeTSOsarerestrictingrapidincreasesordecreasesinrampratesfor windprojectsinordertosuppresslargefrequencyfluctuationsthatmayresultfromlargewind variationsduringthestartupandshutdownofwindprojects,andtonotexceedtheoperating parametersforgeneratorsprovidingprimaryorsecondaryreserves.TSOsinGermanylimitthe positiveramprateofwindturbinesto10%ofratedpowerperminute,andEirGridinIreland limitsthepositiveramprateto1to30MWperminute.Scotlandlimitsthepositiveramprate forwindturbinesto1to10MWperminute,dependingonthecapacityofthewindproject,and thedownwardramprateto3.3%ofpoweroutputperminute.Examplesofgridcodeprovisions

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thatlimitactivepowerchangeandrampingarelistedinTable13.Notincludedinthetableisa proposalbytheAlbertaElectricSystemOperatortolimitrampratesforwindprojectsto4MW perminute.

Table 13. Power control requirements for wind turbines

Requirement Active power: 1 min average < production limit + 5% of maximum power of wind farma 1 min average = 5% of rated power of the wind turbine from conditional set point (0-100% of maximum power of wind farm) 10 min average <k registered capacity at any time < registered capacity Active power change: Reduction to <20% of maximum power (by individual control of each wind turbine) when demanded: in 2s (Eltra); in 5 sec (SvK) Power change from any operating point to a set point defined by E. ON Power reduction of a minimum of 10% of registered capacity per minute
Power increase <10% of registered capacity per minute Adjustable in the range of 10-100% of rated power per minute In any 15-minute period, active power change is limited to: 5% rated power of wind farm per min (PWF < 100 MW) 4% rated power of wind farm per min (PWF < 200 MW) 2% rated power of wind farm per min (PWF < 200 MW) Specific reduction must be possible; reduction order comes from system operator Active power change is limited to: 60 MW per hour, 10 MW over 10 min, 3 MW over 1 min (for PWF < 50 MW); 4 registered capacity per hour, registered capacity/1.5 over 10 min, registered capacity/5 over 1 min (for 15 MW < PWF < 150 MW) 600 MW per hour, 100 MW over 10 min, 30 MW over 1 min (PWF < 150 MW) (may be exceeded at f 50 Hz if farm provides frequency control) Startup: Wind farm shall contain a signal clarifying the cause of preceding wind farm shutdown. This signal should be a part of the logic managing startup of wind turbines for operation Has to comply with requirements regarding active power change

Source Eltra
Eltra and Elkraft E.On Netz, ESB, VDEW

Country Denmark
Denmark Denmark, Sweden, Germany, Ireland Denmark, Sweden Germany Denmark

Eltra, SvK E.On Netz Eltra and Elkraft

EirGrid

Ireland

SvK Scotland

Sweden Scotland

Eltra Scotland, E. ON DEFU 111, AMP, Sintef, VDEW Scotland, Eltra, E. ON Scotland, E. ON DEFU 111, AMP, Sintef, VDEW Scotland, Eltra, E. ON Eltra, SvK Scotland Scotland DEFU 111, AMP, VDEW

Denmark England, German, Sweden, Norway England, German, Sweden, Norway Denmark, Sweden Scotland Scotland Germany, Scotland, Denmark

Has to comply with requirements regarding active power change

Shutdown: High wind speed must not cause simultaneous stop of all wind turbines
No more than 2% of registered capacity may be tripped. Phased reduction of output over 30 min period Has to comply with requirements regarding active power change Has to comply with requirement regarding voltage quality

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Notes to Table 13: a The production limit is an external signal deducted from the local values of, for example, frequency and/or voltage. PWF = rated power of wind farm; DEFU = Research Institute of Danish Electric Utilities; AMP = Abbreviation of a report, in Swedish, of Connecting Smaller Power Plants to the Electrical Network; VDEW = German Electricity Association; SvK = Svenska Kraftnat (the Swedish TSO); Sintef = A Norwegian research institute Source: Matevosyan, Julija; Ackerman, Thomas; and Bolik, Sigrid M. Technical Regulations for the Interconnection of Wind Farms to the Power System, Table 7.1, in T. Ackerman (Ed.), Wind Power in Power Systems (pp. 115-142). England: John Wiley and Sons, Ltd. Reproduced by permission.

FrequencyRange:Inrecentyears,TSOsarerequiringwindprojectstostayonlineduringa widerfrequencyband,incontrasttopastyearswhengridoperatorswantedwindturbinesto dropoffincaseoffrequencydeviations.Figure8providesexamplesoffrequencycontrol requirementsincertaincountries.

Figure 8: Frequency control requirements by selected country

Source: Van Hulle, Fran. 2005. Large Scale Integration of Wind Energy in the European Power Supply. Brussels, Belgium: European Wind Energy Association. Available at http://www.ewea.org/fileadmin/ewea_documents/documents/publications/grid/051215_Grid_ report.pdf.

VoltageControl:Gridcodesgenerallyrequirewindturbinestooperatecontinuouslyatrated outputinnormalvoltagerangesandtostayonlineduringvoltagechangeswithinaspecified range.Windturbinesarealsoexpectedtosupplyreactivepower,rangingfrom0.925(leading) to0.85(lagging)(VanHulle2005).Newervariablespeedgenerators,suchasdoublefed inductiongenerators,canallowwindturbinestoprovidereactivepower(Milborrow2005b).

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Turningtoparticularcountries,E.OnNetzinGermanyrequireswindturbinestocontinueto supplyreactivepowerforuptothreesecondsafteravoltagedrop,aturnaboutfromprevious practiceofrequiringwindturbinestodisconnectduringnetworkvoltagedisturbances(Knight 2005).Windprojects20MWandhigherinSwedenhavetomaintainautomaticregulationof reactivepower,withvoltagewithinplusorminus10%ofnominaloperatingvoltage.Thatsame requirementisinplaceforwindturbinesinNorwayinterconnectedat35kVorhigher (Matevosyanetal.2005).AproposalinSpainwillrequirewindturbinestostopdrawing reactivepowerwithin100millisecondsofadropinvoltageandprovidereactivepowerwithin 150millisecondsofgridrecovery.WindprojectsthatmeetSpainsgridcodewouldreceivea5% productionbonusfortheiroutput(McGovern2004).

5.2

Wind Turbine Modeling and Verification

AcommonissueintheUnitedStatesandaroundtheworldistheneedtoimprovethemodeling ofwindprojectsfordeterminingthepotentialimpactsonsystemreliabilityduringtheprocess ofevaluatinginterconnectionapplicationsfromwindgenerators.IntheUnitedStates,mostof thewinddevelopmentuntil10yearsagooccurredinCalifornia.DevelopmentintheAltamont Passtookplaceonareasonablystrongpartofthegrid,perhapsdecreasingtheneedforgrid friendlywindturbinesandfeatures.MoreissuesoccurredwithwinddevelopmentinSouthern Californiawithvoltageproblemsandasomewhatweaktransmissionnetwork,butthe knowledgeoftheseproblemsandpotentialsolutionsstayedwithinasmallcommunity. AswinddevelopmentspreadbeyondCaliforniainthemid1990s,transmissionprovidershad littleknowledgeorexperiencewithwindtechnology.Asaresult,earlystudiesofthegrid reliabilityimpactsofwindfacilitieswereconductedwithroughmodelsandseveralsimplifying assumptions.Problemsincluded:

Useofinductionmachinemodelsfromreliabilitymodelstomodelwindturbines,even ifmoreadvancedwindturbineswithimprovedgridfeaturesweretobedeployedatthe proposedproject. Developmentofwindprojectsinrelativelyweakareasofthebulkpowernetwork. Disperse(dozenstohundreds)windturbinesrepresentingawindproject,ascompared toasingleorsmallgroupofunitsforaconventionalgeneratingplant.Withthe increasingsizeofthewindprojectsandthelackofavailablemodels,derivinga satisfactoryinterconnectionanddetermininghowmuchtransmissioncapacitywas necessarytomovewindpowertoloadcentersprovedchallenging. Thepaceofwindprojectdevelopmentexceedingthetimeneededtoreinforcethebulk powernetwork,leadingtodelaysinwindprojectdevelopmentortemporaryconstraints onwindprojectoperations(Zavadiletal.2005).TheWECCWindGeneratorModeling Groupisworkingonwindturbinegeneratormodels,anditisanticipatedthatasuiteof foursuchmodelswillsoonbeavailable(Ellis2006).

Inaddition,althoughthereissignificantactivityconcerningmodeldevelopmentfor interconnectingwindturbines,therehasnotbeensignificantfieldtestingofmodels.Ideally, modelsimulationswouldbeverifiedviafieldtestingtoshowthatthedynamicsofamodel

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trulyrepresenttheelectricalnetworkperformanceofafacilityanditssurroundingsystem. However,fieldtestingcanbeacostlyandproblematicendeavorthatrequirescreatingasystem disturbanceorfaultfromwhichtheresultscanbemeasured.Purposelycreatingafaultinthe electricgridisnotatrivialevent,subsequentlyfieldtestingmodelingresultsforaccuracyisnot generallydone.TheexceptionisthedynamicperformancetestingconductedattheWoolnorth WindFarm,aHydroTasmaniafacilitylocatedwithintheTasmanianPowerSystemgridinthe islandstateofTasmanianearAustralia. TheTasmaniapowersystemhas2,500MWofgeneratingcapacitywithasystempeakdemand of1,700MW.Whileitwaspreviouslyanisolatedsystem,Tasmaniawasinterconnectedwiththe mainlandsystemviaamonopolarHVDVline,Basslink,whichcommencedcommercial operationinApril2006.Extremelygoodwindconditionsandtheavailabilityofhydroelectric resourcesmakeTasmaniaanattractivelocationforwindpower.TheWoolnorthWindFarm wasthefirstwindfarminTasmania,a65MWfacility(37VestasV66turbineseachratedat1.75 MW)connectedtothe110kVtransmissionsystemwitharelativelyweakconnectionpoint(450 MVA)atSmithton. ThedecisiontoconductasystemperformancetestonWoolnorthwasmadebasedontheuseof newtechnology(variablespeedgenerators)andthelimitedamountofdataavailableonthe equipmentsimpactonthepowersystem.Thetestswereconductedtoverifycompliancewith faultridethroughrequirementsandtomeasuretheresultsofsystemfrequencydisturbances andactivecontrolcapabilitiesofthewindfarm.Thetestsinvolvedtheapplicationofexternal disturbancesthatwereusedtoassesstheperformanceofthevariablespeedgenerator,theneed forancillaryservices,andtheaccuracyofwindfarmgeneratormodelsandtheirassumptions. Theperformancepredictedbythemodelswasgenerallyborneoutinthetests,andthe functionalityofthewindfarmcontrolsystemwasproven.However,othertestsmayneedtobe carriedouttoverifyothertypesofwindturbinesandcontroltechnologies.Inaddition,the VestaswindturbinestestedinTasmaniaarenotavailableintheUnitedStatesforpatent reasons,andthetestresultsinTasmaniamaynotbedirectlytransferabletotheUnitedStates.In anyevent,asummaryofthespecifictestsandtheirresultsareincludedinTable14 (Piekutowskietal.2005).

Transmission operators in Europe have also raised concerns about insufficient dynamic models, as well as the variety of different turbine models that contribute to the difficulty of modeling wind turbines for interconnection to the grid. Manufacturer-specific models are becoming more available, and European transmission operators have developed and validated some detailed dynamic models (Eriksen et al. 2005). Continued growth in wind energy may be conditioned in some countries on not only resolving uncertainties about the grid impacts of wind turbines but also on the availability of analytical tools and models. For example, EirGrid has instituted certification requirements for wind turbine models to be used in system interconnections as part of Irelands grid code (Zavadil et al. 2005).

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Table 14. Summary of performance tests and results for the Woolnorth Wind Farm
Test Purpose Outcome
Wind farm power output remained in phase with active power after the step change in voltage. Step Change in Voltage The ability of the wind farm to keep voltage constant in local load centers A reduced reactive power contribution from the step change in active power output was observed, but not reflected in simulation models. Step Change In Wind Turbine MW Set Point (temporarily lowering output to simulate rapid variations in wind creating an increase of active power by 18 MW) Transmission Line Switching Impact on oscillatory stability and damping contribution Reasonably good match in reactive power, however, simulated tests did not match the measured tests. The fault was cleared, as expected, in 70ms, however the fault was Operation of fault ride through capability Single Phase to Ground Fault 1 picked up on the transmission system further down the line, opening a circuit breakers, and raising concerns on islanding. The detection of islanding conditions Islanding was too slow and could lead to an out of phase synchronization Measure impacts at three distinct Single Phase to Ground Fault 2 (repeat test) locations: point of interconnection (110kV), wind farm distribution (22kV), and select wind turbines Evaluated the results of tripping a Under Frequency Test neighboring hydroelectric facility offline tests frequency control The fault cleared in 66 ms. One turbine with advanced wind option technologies tripped and several other turbines without the advanced technology also tripped Confirmed that the turbines do not contribute an inertial response after a frequency disturbance. Verify performance of wind farm controller The increase in real power increases reactive power losses through the wind turbine transformer leading to a decrease in the reactive power at the Woolnorth and Smithton busses.

Source: Piekutowski, Marian; Field, Tony; Ho, Sam; Martinez, Antonio; Steel, Marcus; Clark, Stephen; Bola, Satendra; Jorgensen, Henrik Kanstrup; and Obad, Mujo. Dynamic Performance Testing of Woolnorth Wind Farm. Presented before the Fifth International Workshop on Large-Scale Integration of Wind Power and Transmission Networks for Offshore Wind Farms, April 7-8, 2005, Glasgow, Scotland.

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5.4

Demand Response

Demandresponsemayhelpintegratelargeramountsofwindpowerthroughmoving consumptionfromwhenwindproductionislowtotimesofhigherwindproduction,suchas additionalpumpingatpumpedstoragehydrofacilities(Strbac2002).Oneexampleresearched inDenmarkistheuseofelectricityfordistrictwaterheatinginsteadofotherfuels(Eltra2004a) whenwindproductionishighandmarketpricesarelow. ParticipationindemandresponseprogramshasbeenrelativelysmallinEurope.Thereasons areunclear,althoughitmayincludetransactioncosts,informationbarriers,orsimplythatthe marginalvalueofelectricityforconsumersishigherthanevenhighmarketpricesforelectricity (GulandStenzel2005).OnestudyinFinland,forinstance,determinedthatonlyonequarterof allcustomersrespondedstronglytovariablepricing(Giebel2005). DemandresponseintheUnitedStatesisalsonotwidespread,althoughregulatoryandindustry interestisgrowingsignificantly.AFERCsurveyfoundthatabout200entitiesoffersometypeof demandresponseprogram,withmostoftheseconsistingofdirectloadcontrol, interruptible/curtailableprograms,andtimeofuserates.About5%ofcustomersareonsome formoftimebasedorincentivebaseddemandresponseprogram.Overall,thetotalpotential demandresponsecontributionfromexistingprogramsisestimatedtobe37,500MW(FERC 2006b)intheU.S. Shiftingdemandiscitedasonetooltoassistwithintegratinglargeamountsofwind.Forthis andotherreasons,NordelrequestedthateachTSOprepareademandresponseactionplanin 2004.Currently,NorwayandSwedenbothconsiderdemandandsupplysourceswhen contractingforreserves.EltrainDenmark,beforemergingwithElkrafttoformEnerginetdk, launchedademandresponseactionplanto,atleastinpart,helpintegratewindpower.The planincluded22pilotprojectstotesttheviabilityofdemandresponse,andwillbeconductedin phasesbetween2008and2010(GulandStenzel2005).DenmarksextensivetieswithNorway, SwedenandGermanysuggestthatdemandresponsecanbeacquiredthroughthosecountries aswell,assumingthereisavailableexchangecapacity. InCalifornia,theCaliforniaPublicUtilitiesCommissionsettargetsforutilitiestomeet3%ofits annualpeakdemandwithdemandresponse,increasing1%peryearto5%by2007(CPUC 2003).Californiaalsohasimplementedapreferredloadingorderforresourceprocurement consistingofdecreasingelectricitydemandbyincreasingenergyefficiencyanddemand response,andmeetingnewgenerationneeds,firstwithrenewableanddistributedgeneration resources,andsecondwithcleanfossilfueledgeneration(Benderetal.2005).TheCAISOalso allowsqualifyingloadstoparticipateintheirreplacementreserveandsupplementalenergy markets(FERC2006b).

5.5

Storage

Alongdiscussedoptionistousevarioustypesofstoragetechnologiestohelpbalance aggregatesystemvariability,includingwind,loadandothergeneration.Californiahasover 4,000MWofpumpedstoragehydroprojects,with2,700MWintheCAISOcontrolarea.These projectsofferanaturalmeansofstorage,butthatresourcemaynotalwaysbeavailable.The

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pumpedstorageprojectsmaybeutilizedforotherapplicationssuchasfloodcontrol,recreation andpowergeneration. Anotheroptioniscombiningcompressedairenergystorage(CAES)withvariablerenewable energygeneration.InIowa,agroupofmunicipalutilitiesandsurroundingstatesareplanning tobuilda75to150megawattwindprojectpairedwithCAES,andtheTexasStateEnergy ConservationOfficeisalsoconsideringcompressedairenergystoragewithwind.Stillother potentialtechnologyoptionsincludebatteryandflywheeltechnologies(Jonesetal.2005a). Denmarkalsohasexaminedwhetherwindproductioncanbeconvertedtoelectrolysisforthe productionofhydrogen,althoughatleastfornow,itisbelievedthatthereareonlyasmall numberofhourswherethismaybeeconomic(Eltra2004a).Finally,Elkraft(theTSOforEastern DenmarkpriortoitsmergerwithEltra)financiallysupportedapilotprojecttestinga15kW batterywithwindturbinestotestbatteryefficiency,responsetothewindturbines,andgeneral systemoperatingconditions(Eltra2004a). Energystorageoptionsarebeginningtobeapartofsomeneworproposedwindprojects.VRB Powerrecentlysoldasmallenergystorageprojectthatcanprovide12MWh(1.5MWovereight hours)ofstoragetotheplanned32MWSomeHillwindprojectinIreland(Hamilton2006).In addition,JapansAgencyofNaturalResourcesandEnergyisconsideringpartiallysubsidizing thecostsofenergystoragefacilitiesinresponsetoutilityconcernsaboutwindsvariability (Dahl2005).Suchenergystorageoptionsarenotinexpensive.TheVRBsysteminIrelandis about$4,000/kW,andJapansAgencyofNaturalResourcesandEnergyestimatedenergy storagewouldadd50%tothecostofwindpower(Hamilton2006;Dahl2005).California utilitiesandtheCommissionarebeginningtoinvestigatestorageatkeysubstationsand interconnectionpointsasawaytomanagestorageintegrationcosts.

5.6

Wind Power Curtailment

Maximumwindproductioncanbeseveraltimeslargerthanaverageproduction,meaningthat at20%windpenetrationbyenergy,windproductionmayequalconsumerdemandforsome hours.Curtailmentofwindgenerationmayoccuriftheamountofwindgenerationataspecific timeismorethanwhatthegridcanreadilytakein.Factorsthatcouldaffecttheamountofwind energythatiscurtailedarelistedbelow:

Windcurtailmentswilloccuratlowerwindpenetrationsongridsdominatedbythermal ornucleargenerationthatmaynotbeveryflexible,orincludesgenerationaffectedby policyconstraints,suchasmustrununits. Thecorrelationbetweenwindgenerationanddemandwillalsoaffectwhetherwindis curtailedornot.Curtailmentwillbelowerifwindgenerationisassociatedwithelectric demand,andconversely,willoccurmoreoftenifwindgenerationishighwhendemand islow. Theavailabilityoftransmissioncapacitywillalsoaffectifwindgenerationiscurtailed.If transmissionisavailabletotransmitwindgenerationtootherareas,thencurtailmentof

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windgenerationislikelytobeless;however,ifwindgenerationisremotefromloadand transmissionisconstrained,thenwindgenerationismorelikelytobecurtailed. Forgridsdominatedbythermalgenerationthatmaynotbeveryflexible,windcurtailments couldoccuratpenetrationsaslowas10%.At20%penetrationbywind,upwardsof10%oftotal windgenerationcouldbecurtailed(Holttinen2004).OnestudyofSwedendeterminedthat over16%ofwindgenerationcouldbecurtailedatan11%penetrationofwindifthewind generationislocatedinthenorth,andthereislittleornotransmissioncapacitytotransmitthe windenergytothesouth.Otherstudiesfoundthatinsystemswithmoreflexibleresources,the levelofwindcurtailmentwouldbemuchlower(Grossetal.2006).Countrieswithmusttake requirementsintheirrenewableenergyfeedinlawstendtohavethetoughestgridcode provisionswithregardstowindcurtailment.Oneexampleisincurtailingwindproduction upontheTSOsrequest,presentinthegridcodesinDenmark,Germany,IrelandandSpain. SomewindcurtailmenthasoccurredinWesternDenmark,andinNorthernGermany,wind turbinesarecurtailedwhenthereistransmissioncongestion(GulandStenzel2005).In NorthernGermany,E.OnNetzimplementedcurtailmentpolicies,orgenerationmanagement asdescribedbyE.OnNetz,forwindgeneratorsintheSchleswigHolsteinregioninmid2003, covering700MW(about1/3ofthewindcapacityinthatregion),andexpandingittoLower Saxonyin2005.E.OnNetzdivideditsgridinSchleswigHolsteininto10regions,andthey expectLowerSaxonytobedividedinto25regions.Ifoverloadconditionsarepresent,E.On Netzidentifiestheregionofconcernandsendsasignaltowindprojectstoadjustoutput accordingly,definingthemaximumactiveoutputthattheregionswindprojectscanprovideto thegrid.In2004,E.OnNetzissuedsuchdirectivesinSchleswigHolstein17times,withthe durationforeachdirectiverangingfrom30minutesto12hours,andwindproductionbeing reducedbetween0and60%(E.OnNetz2005).Untilnewtransmissioncapacityisadded,E.On NetzwillnotinterconnectnewwindprojectsinSchleswigHolsteinunlessthewindgenerators participateinE.OnNetzsgenerationmanagementprogram(E.OnNetz2004). Spainhasalsocurtailedwindgenerationduetolocalgridlimitations.Inthepast,REE,thegrid operatorinSpain,curtailedwindoutputifwindpowerpenetrationexceeds12%ofdemand. REEderivedthispenetrationlevelthroughsystemstudiesoftheSpanishgridandits internationalconnections,particularlytheinterconnectiontoFrance.Underitsinterconnection agreements,REEcancurtailwindproductionifsystemconditionsrequiresuchaction.REEsaid itwouldfirstcurtailordisconnectwindprojectsthatdidnothavefaultridethroughcapability. CurtailmentwasrelativelyinfrequentinSpainupto2003.OneoccurrencewasintheGalicia regioninNorthwesternSpain,whichhaslimitedconnectiontothetransmissiongridandin periodsofhighrainfall,cannothandleboththehydroandwindgeneration.Lossesforwind operatorsinthatregionfromcurtailmenthavebeenupto12%ofannualoutput.Wind curtailmentin2004intherestofSpainoccurredgenerallywheneverwindgenerationexceeded 12%ofdemand,particularlyduringvalleyhoursonweekends.In2005,however,curtailment occurredlessfrequently.Inaddition,itappearsthatREEslimitof12%windwasrelaxedin 2005,astherehavebeenperiodsofwindpenetrationconsiderablyhigherthan12%thehighest halfhourlypenetrationhasbeen24%oftotaldemand(Craig2006).

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AwindintegrationreportdoneinNewZealandrecommendedallowingthegridoperatorto disconnectwindprojectsremotelyortocurtailoutputincasesofhighwindorifthereare transmissionconstraintsthataffectsystemsecurity.TheNewZealandreportalso recommendedcurtailingwindoutputindrywateryearswhentheHDVClinkthatconnectsthe northandsouthpartsofthecountryisusedfortransmittingpowersouth(EnergyLinkLtd. 2005). InOctober2005,Energinet.dk,thenewTSOforDenmark,conductedastudyofsteadily increasingwindscenariosto100%windgenerationtodetermine,amongotherthings,how muchwouldbecurtailed.Tokeepthestudysimple,Energinet.dkdisregardedinternational interconnectionsandCHPgeneration.At100%wind,theneedforbaseloadgenerationfalls from4,000MWtoabout2,000MW,buttheneedforpeakingunitsincreasesfrom1,600MW withanallthermalsystemtoabout3,000MWwith100%windgeneration.Initssimplified scenario,windgenerationdoesnothavetobecurtaileduntilwindpenetrationisat30%but increasessignificantlyto8TWh(about31%oftotalwindgeneration)at100%wind (Energinet.dk2005).Energinet.dkassumedthatathighwindgenerationlevels,wind productionwouldbecurtailedorsoldtoelectricboilersorheatpumpsatabelowmarketrate of13/MWh(WindpowerMonthly2006).Energinet.dkfoundadditionalcostsof613/MWh fromthehigherwindgeneration,althoughtheTSOcautionedthatitdidnotfactorinancillary servicecosts,gridstabilityissues,ortransmissioncapacityinthestudy(Orthsetal.2006).

5.7

Transmission Planning and Development

TheEuropeanUnionhasbeenmovingtowardsaliberalizedelectricitymarket,withtheaimof developingasingleInternalElectricityMarket.EUdirective2003/54/EC,forinstance,callsfor allnonhouseholdelectricitycustomersfromJuly1,2004,andallcustomersfromJuly1,2007,to haveaccesstobeabletofreelynegotiatethepurchaseandsaleofelectricity.Inaddition,third partygridaccessisassured,andtransmissionanddistributioncompaniesmustlegally unbundlebyJuly1,2007. WinddevelopmentinEuropehascoincidedwiththeliberalizationofelectricitymarkets, leadingtomoreregionalpowertradeandgreateruseofthetransmissionsystemthatwas developedtoserveinternalelectricitymarkets,notnecessarilytofacilitateintercountrytrade. Overall,theInternationalEnergyAgencypredictsthat$1.8trillionoftransmissionand distributioninvestmentsarenecessaryby2030simplytomeetdemandgrowthandtoupgrade existingassets(GulandStenzel2005).Furthermore,planningforwindgenerationandplanning fortransmissionoftenproceedindependently,withtransmissionprojectstakingupto10years toplananddevelop.Anumberofentitiesarecallingforanaccelerationoftransmission development(GulandStenzel2005;VanHulle2005;UCTE2005a). Asnotedearlier,stronggridinterconnectionshaveplayedapartinhelpingDenmarkmanage itshighlevelofwindproduction.Ingeneral,though,thereislimitedinterconnectionbetween nationalandregionalelectricitymarketsinEurope,andcurrenttranscountryinterconnections areheavilyloaded(Meeusetal.2005).Currently,crossbordercapacityallocationsbetween countriesaredeterminedeachyear,forpeakhoursinthewinterandinthesummerbythe

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EuropeanTransmissionSystemOwners(Wayteetal.2005).EWEAhascalledforallocating someofthatcrossbordercapacitytorenewableenergytoensurethatcountriesmeettheir renewableenergygoals. TheEuropeanUnionhastwoeffortsunderwaythatinvolve,atleastinpart,planningfor transmissionandwindenergy.TheTransEuropeanNetworksforEnergy,knownasTENE,is aimedatimprovingoperationoftheEuropeanenergymarkets,reducingisolationofsome regionsintheEuropeanUnion,andreinforcingenergysupplysecurity.TheEuropean CommissionisfinancingtheConcertedActionOffshoreEnergyWindDevelopmentproject,or COD,thatamongotherthings,isaimedatdevelopinghighvoltagetransmissionlinksbetween countriesandinterconnectingdifferentoffshorewindprojectsandloadcentersoverlong distances.SomeofthetransmissionneedsidentifiedbyeitherTENEorCODinclude:

HighertransfercapabilitiesbetweenNordelandUCTE; StrengtheningtransmissioninterconnectionsintoPoland; IncreasingtransmissioncapabilitiesbetweenUCTEandSpain,ItalyandtheBalkan states; ReinforcingtransmissionlinesbetweenFrance,GermanyandBelgium,Netherlandsand Luxembourg; ReinforcingtransmissionconnectionsfromCentralandWesternEuropetotheBalkan states,theMediterraneancountries,andPortugal; IncreasingtransmissioncapacitybetweenGermany,AustriaandCentralEuropean countries;and CreatingaMediterraneantransmissionnetworkconnectingSouthernEuropeto NorthernAfricaandtheNearEast(VanHulle2005).

Increasingcrossborderelectricitytransactions,theinterestindevelopingrenewables,and shoringupenergysecurityispromptingconsiderationofbolsteringcrossbordertransmission capabilities.TENEfirstlistedbottlenecksofcommoninterestin1996andupdateditthree timesby2003.In2004,theEuropeanCommission,inresponsetotheexpansionoftheEU,listed nineaxesorclustersofpriorityprojects(Meeusetal.2005). OthershavecalledforthedevelopmentoftransEuropeansupergrids,coveringbothoffshore andonshore.Moreaggressively,someadvocateforagridconnectingEurope,NorthAfricaand theMiddleEast(VanHulle2005).InMay2006,Airtricityannounceditsintenttodevelopa seriesofhighvoltageAC/DCnetworklinestoconnectseveraloffshorewindprojectsfromthe MediterraneantotheNorthandBalticSeas.Besidestransmittingwindenergy,theprojectis alsodesignedtobeaEuropewidetransmissionnetwork(Airtricity2006). ItiswellknownthatCaliforniahassignificanttransmissionissues,anditwillonlybebriefly discussedhere.In2004,theCAISOincurredcongestionandmustrunreliabilitycostsof$1 billion.ThosecostsdidnotincludeinterzonalcostsorcongestioncostsoutsideoftheCAISO.It alsohasbeenwelldocumentedthatnewtransmissionwillbenecessaryifCaliforniaisgoingto meetits20%RPSby2010(Jonesetal.2005a).

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Newtransmissionwillclearlyhelpwithintegratingvariablerenewableenergygenerationin California,ashasbeendemonstratedinDenmark.Most,ifnotallofthetransmissionproposals insideandoutsideofCaliforniaareatanearlystage,anditisnotclearhowmanyofthemwill bepermittedandultimatelydeveloped. LotsofactivityinrelationtotransmissionistakingplaceinsideandoutsideofCalifornia. ExtensivenewtransmissionhasbeenproposedtoaccessrenewableresourcesinTehachapiand theImperialValley.InAugust2006,theCAISOBoardofGovernorsapprovedtheSunPath projectthatwilladd1,000MWoftransmissioncapacitytoSouthernCaliforniaandaccess geothermalandsolarresourcesintheImperialValley.SunPathconsistsofa68mile,500kV linerunningfromtheImperialValleySubstationtoanewSanFelipeSubstationanda10mile, 500kVlinerunningfromtheSanFelipeSubstationtoanewCentralSubstation.Inaddition,a 39mile,230kVtransmissionlinewillgofromtheCentralSubstationtotheSycamoreCanyon Substationanda13mile230kVlinewillrunfromtheSycamoreCanyonSubstationtothe PenasquitosSubstation.TheCAISOBoardofDirectorsisalsoexpectedtoapprovethe500kV LakeElsinoreAdvancedPumpStorageprojectandthe500kVand230kVTehachapi transmissionprojects. OutsideofCalifornia,asindicatedinFigure9,overadozentransmissionprojectshavebeen proposed,withsomeoftheseproposalstargetingCaliforniaastheultimatemarket,suchasthe FrontierlinethatwouldoriginateinWyomingandendinCalifornia.Manyoftheseproposals areataveryearlystage,andnotallofthemmaybeconstructed.Sitingissues,andhowthe costsoftheseprojectswillberecovered,aretheprimaryobstacles.

Figure 9: Proposed transmission projects in the West

Source: Thomas Carr. Transmission in the West: A Primer. Presentation before the National Wind Coordinating Committees Leadership Forum, July 18, 2006, Broomfield, Colorado. Available at http://www.nationalwind.org/events/transmission/western/2006/presentations/briefi ng/carr.pdf.

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6.0 Findings and Implications for California

Thischaptersummarizesthefindingsfromthevariousmodelingandsimulationstudiesand operatingexperiencewithvariablerenewableenergygenerationandcomparesthemto Californiassituation.Severaloftheseitemswerereferencedinthe2005EnergyCommission consultantsreport(Dyeretal.2005),andwillbereferencedwhereapplicable.

6.1

Ancillary Services

Althoughthestudiesmaydifferinmethodology,thetimescalesconsidered,andthedataand toolsthatwereused,itappearsthatthecostsofintegratingwindarelessthan$6/MWhat energypenetrationlevelsofupto20percentforbothprimaryandsecondaryreservecosts. Factorsthataffectwindintegrationcostsincludehowthevariabilityinwindgeneration interactswithvariabilityinelectricitydemand,thesizeofthecontrolarea,theresourcemix,the strengthofthetransmissiongrid,thegeographicconcentrationofwindprojects,andhowfarin advancethepowerschedulesmustbesubmittedtosystemoperators. Inexaminingthesewindintegrationfactors,Californiaappearstohaveseveralofthesefactors initsfavor.

ThestatehasadiversewindresourceinAltamont,Solano,TehachapiandSanGorgonio. CAISOisthegridoperatorformuchofthestateandoperatesasasinglecontrolarea. CAISOalsohaselementsthatworkwellforvariablerenewableenergygeneration:hour aheadanddayaheadmarketsandpenaltyminimizingimbalanceprovisionsthrough theuseofwindforecasting. Thescheduled2008launchoftheCAISOmarketredesignshouldhelp.TheCAISO marketredesignwillallowunbalancedschedules(asopposedtothecurrent requirementofbalancedschedules)andmayhelptocreatealiquidspotmarketthatwill alsoaidinintegratinggreateramountsofvariablerenewableenergygeneration.

Italsohasbeengenerallyfoundthatadditionalreservesmayberequiredasthepenetrationof variablerenewableenergygenerationincreases.TheIAPstudywilldeterminewhether additionalregulationandoperatingreservesmaybenecessaryathigherlevelsofvariable renewableenergygeneration,andwilldiscussmethodsoffindingadditionalreservesfrom existingornewsourcesshouldafindingbemadethatadditionalreservesarenecessary. Somewindintegrationstudieshavesuggestedreorganizingancillaryservicemarkets,oreven suggestingaspecificancillaryserviceforwind.Ireland,NewZealandandtheCanadian provinceofAlbertahavesuggestedawindspecificancillaryservice,withIrelandsproposal perhapsthemostdeveloped.IrelandandNewZealandareislandswithlittleornoexternal interconnections,whileAlbertaalsohaslimitedexternalinterconnections.Incontrast, Californiahasextensiveexternalinterconnectionsandadeepresourcestack.Inanyevent, establishingaseparateancillaryserviceforaparticularsetofgenerationtechnologieswouldbe asignificantdeparturefromhowancillaryservicesareorganizedcurrently.Theprovisionof andneedforancillaryservicesisdeterminedforthegridasawhole,notonthecharacteristics ofindividualtechnologies.Planningseparateancillaryservicesforindividualtechnologiesmay

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notcapturethesystemdiversityofloadandothergeneratingresources,andmayresultinmore ancillaryservicesbeingprocuredthannecessary.

6.2

Wind Forecasting

Windforecastinghasbecomeanimportanttoolasmorewindenergyhasbeenadded.Not includingsimplepersistence,thedifferentwindforecastingmodelscanberoughlycategorized intotwotypes:thosethatapplynumericalweatherpredictionmodelswithequationsbasedon thephysicaldescriptionofthewindprojecttoproduceawindforecast,andthosethatapply statisticaltechniquestoproduceastatisticalwindforecastfromnumericalweatherprediction models.Theperformanceofthewindforecastingmodelsappearstiedtothecomplexityofthe terrain,thequalityofthemetrologicaldata,andthewindresourceitself.Somegridoperators areexperimentingwithcombinationwindforecasting,usingbothphysicalandstatistical techniques. In2002,theCAISObecamethefirst,andtodate,theonlyregionaltransmissionoperatorinthe UnitedStatestousecentralizedwindforecastingtopredicttheoutputofwindgeneration. Currently,thePIRPprogramappliesthewindforecaststothehouraheadmarket,although dataiscollectedforthedayaheadmarket.TheCAISO,alongwithCaliforniastakeholders,isin themidstofconsideringpotentialchangestoPIRP,includingaddingdayaheadforecasts; addressingtheschedulingbias;andchangingthetreatmentofexportsoutofPIRP.InDecember 2006,FERCapprovedaCAISOpetitiontochargeexportfeestoPIRPfacilitiesthatexportpower outoftheCAISOcontrolarea. OnlyasmallproportionofexistingvariablerenewableenergycapacityparticipatesinthePIRP program.Someofthisisbecauseoftherenewableenergygeneratorsthatarequalifying facilities(QFs)underthePublicUtilityRegulatoryPoliciesAct.Inmostcases,QFpower purchaseagreementsplacetheschedulingrequirementsonutilities,andutilitiescanmixthe variablerenewableenergygenerationwithothergenerationtominimizeimbalances.More variablerenewableenergygeneratorsmayjointheCAISOsPIRPprogramasQFcontracts expire.IncreasingparticipationinPIRPwillhelpreducetheperMWhcostofthePIRP program. ContinuingresearchbytheCommissionandutilitiesisfocusedonbringingforecastingtothe controlroomandimprovingresolutionofdataneededforaccurateforecasts.Remotesensing usingsonarandDopplermayprovidedataofhighenoughspatialandtemporalresolutionto giveschedulersalookaheadonwindresources.

6.3

Transmission

Thissectionwillbrieflyaddressbothexistingandnewtransmission.Ashasbeennoted, externalinterconnectionsandtransmissionhasbeenkeyinhelpingDenmarkandGermany withintegratingvariablerenewableenergygeneration.However,theneedformore transmissioniscommontoboththeUnitedStatesandEurope. Ashasbeennoted,extensiveactivityisunderwayinCaliforniatoplanandconstruct transmissionfortappingrenewableresourceareasinTehachapiandtheImperialValley.

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OutsideofCalifornia,morethanadozenmajortransmissionprojectshavebeenproposedinthe West,andCaliforniaisthesourceortargetforsomeofthem,suggestingthatintegrating variablerenewableenergygenerationcouldconceivablygeteasierifsomeorallofthe transmissionprojectscometofruition.Giventheearlystageofmostoftheseproposed transmissionprojects,itwillbesometimebeforethesetransmissionprojectsareofassistance. HighlevelsofwindgenerationinGermanyandthelackofnorthtosouthtransmissioncapacity inGermanyhavesometimesledtogenerationbeingroutedfromthewindrichareasin NorthernGermanytoSouthernGermanyviathetransmissionnetworksoftheNetherlands, BelgiumandFrance.Renewableintegrationprojects,suchastheIAPstudy,willassesswhether highlevelsofvariablerenewableenergygenerationinCaliforniamayaffectnotjustgrid reliabilityinCaliforniabutalsowithinWECC.

6.4

Active Management of Wind Generation

Examplesofactivemanagementofwindprojectsincluderampratelimitsandgeneration curtailment.RampratelimitsonwindgenerationhavebeenimposedinGermany,Ireland,and ScotlandandhavebeenproposedinAlberta.WiththeexceptionofGermany,thesecountries doesnothavetheexternalinterconnectionsorasdeeparesourcestackasCaliforniadoes.In addition,windcapacityinthesecountriesisoftenconnectedatdistributionlevelvoltages, whichmayhavelessresiliencetoacceptlargeramps.Anearlierconsultantsreportforthe EnergyCommissionpreliminarysuggestedthatCaliforniasresourcestackissufficientlydeep enoughtohandlewindandsolarrampingevents(Shiuet.al.2006).TheIAPwillmeasureramp rateswithandwithoutvariablerenewableenergygenerationanddeterminewhetherCalifornia hassufficientsystemcapabilitiestohandleramping. ShouldsuchrampratelimitsbeconsideredinCalifornia,careshouldbetakentonotpreclude rampingthatmaybebeneficialtothegrid.Forexample,thosetimeswhenwindisrampingin thesamedirectionasload.Timedifferentiatedramplimitsmaybepreferable,suchasimposing upramplimitswhenloaddropsoffintheevening,butnotinthemorningwhenloadincreases. Curtailmentofwindgenerationhasoccurredinsomecountries,notablyinGermanyandSpain. Thewindindustrycannaturallybequiteconcernedabouttheprospectofcurtailment,asitcan playhavocwithprojecteconomics.Caremustbetakentoensurethatcurtailmentisdonerarely andonlyforreliabilityreasons(akintosheddingoffirmload),insteadoftreatingcurtailmentof variablerenewableenergygenerationasanotherformofcontingencyreserve.Inaddition, questionswillcertainlyariseastowhethervariablerenewableenergygeneratorsshouldbe compensatedifcurtailed.TheIAPwillexaminethegridimpactsofhigherlevelsofvariable renewableenergygeneration,andwhethercurtailmentofvariablerenewableenergygeneration maybenecessaryatcertaintimes.

6.5

Flexible Generation

Mostofthenewpowerplantsthathavebeenproposedorhavecomeonlineinrecentyearsin Californiaarecombinedcycle,naturalgasunitsthataredesignedtooperateathighloadfactors andhavelessabilitytorampupanddownthanoldersteamunits(Joneset.al2005a).A2005

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EnergyCommissionconsultantsreportnotedthatCaliforniacouldusemorecontrollable generationandrecommendedthattheCAISOsetmetricsfordetermininghowmuch controllablegenerationisneeded(Dyeretal.2005).TheIAPwillconsiderwhetheradditional infrastructuresuchasflexiblegeneration(e.g.,pumpedstoragehydro,RMRs)isneededornot toincorporatehigherlevelsofvariablerenewableenergygeneration Californiamayalsogainadditionalflexibilityfromrenegotiatingexistingcontracts.Perhaps morethananyotherstate,Californiaisuniquelyexposedtominimumloadissues,withmust runqualifyingfacilitiesunderPURPAandtheincreasedprocurementofcombinedcycle naturalgasplantsdesignedtooperateonlyinbaseloadmode.A2005EnergyCommission consultantsreportrecommendedrenegotiatingsomeofthosecontractstoprovideadditional systemflexibility(Dyeretal.2005).

6.6

Storage

Californiahasover4,000MWofpumpedstoragehydrocapacity,althougha2005Energy Commissionconsultantsreportnotesthatpumpedstoragehydrocapacitymaynotbeavailable becauseofwaterflowthroughrequirementsorbecauseoflowwaterlevelsthatprevent pumping(Dyeretal.2005).Otherstorageoptionssuchasflywheels,batteries,fuelcellsand CAESmaybetoocostlyascomparedtootheroptions.Managementstrategiesandmarket products(i.e.daynightandseasonalenergyexchangeswithotherregionsintheWest)may alsobeusedlikestorageoptions,asnotedbytheEnergyCommissionconsultantsreport(Dyer etal.2005).

6.7

Demand Response

Demandresponsemayhelpintegratevariablerenewableenergygenerationbyshifting consumptionfromtimesoflowvariablerenewableenergygenerationtotimeswhenvariable renewableenergygenerationishigh.Californiahasaggressivedemandresponseprogramsand goalsforallthreeinvestorownedutilitiesbutprobablynotforthegoalofincorporatingmore variablerenewableenergygeneration.Currentgoalsfocusonlimitingdemandatcriticalpeak times. Participationindemandresponseprogramshasbeenrelativelylow,eitherintheUnitedStates orinothercountries,perhapsbecauseoftransactioncosts,informationbarriers,orthatthe marginalvalueofelectricityforconsumersmaybehigherthanelectricitymarketprices.In 2004,thepotentialdemandresponsecapabilityintheUnitedStateswasabout20,500MW, whiletheactualpeakdemandreductionwasabout9,000MW,or1.3%ofpeak.Totaldemand responseandloadmanagementcapabilitieshavedecreasedbyaboutonethirdbecauseof reducedutilitysupportandinvestment(U.S.DOE2006).

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7.0 Conclusion
NearlytwothirdsoftheworldswindinstalledcapacityisinEurope,withGermany,Spainand Denmarkaloneaccountingforonehalfoftheworldsinstalledwindcapacity.Wind developmentinEurope,atleastinitially,differedfromthelargerutilityscaleprojectsinthe UnitedStates,particularlyinDenmarkandGermany,wherewinddevelopmentconsistedof smaller(butnumerous)windprojectsinterconnectedtothedistributiongrid.Thattypeofwind developmentinDenmarkandGermanytookadvantageofthegeographicdiversityofwind resourcestosmoothsomeofthevariabilityinwind. SimilarmanagementstrategiesbetweentheUnitedStatesandEuropehavebeguntoemergeas winddevelopmenthasexpandedtoothercountrieswithlessrobustgridinfrastructure,as comparedtoDenmarkandGermany,andaswinddevelopmenthastendedtowardsutility scaleprojectsthatarecommonintheUnitedStates.Theimplementationofgridcodes(although varyinginspecificsfromcountrytocountry)isonesuchexample.Theneedfortransmissionin bothEuropeandtheUnitedStates,notjustforwindgenerationbutforalltypesofgeneration, isanothersimilarity.Considerabletransmissionplanningandactivityisunderwayinboth EuropeandtheUnitedStates. Theparticularcircumstancesineachcountry,stateorregionwilldeterminetheeaseof integratingvariablerenewableenergygeneration.Thesefactorsincludethegeneratingmix;the flexibilityofresourcesinmix;whethertherearerobustdayaheadmarketswithdeepresource stacks;thelocationofwindresources;transmissionavailability;andthesizeofcontrolareas. Windintegrationwillalmostcertainlybemorechallenginginsmallcontrolareas,inareaswith limitedinterconnections,orinareaswithasmallloadand/orsmallresourcestacksascompared toregionswithlargercontrolareas,extensiveinterconnectionsorlargeloadsand/ordeep resourcestacks.Becausethesecircumstancescanvarydramatically,cautionshouldbeusedin comparingcountriesorregionswitheachother. Thisreportexaminedhowcountriesoverseashaveincorporatedvariablerenewableenergy generation,whatoperatingstrategieshavebeenusedtointegratevariablerenewableenergy generation,whatlessonshavebeenlearned,andwhetherthatexperienceistransferableto California.Foravarietyofreasons,thereportfocusedmostlyonwind,giventhatthereismore gridconnectedwindcapacityworldwidethansolar;theexperiencewithwindismorewidely reported;andthedevelopmenttodateofsolarsystemshasbeenofsmall,distributedsystems and,atleastasofnow,doesnotfacethesamesystemintegrationissuesaswindpower. Somehighlightsofintegrationstrategiesandfindingsfromvariouscountryreportsinclude:

Strategiesimplementedtoincorporatewindincludewindforecasting,gridcodes, curtailment,windturbinemodelingandverification,demandresponse,and transmissionplanninganddevelopment. Todate,gridcodeshavefeaturedthesemajorthemes:requiringwindturbinestoride throughgridfaults;increasingordecreasingpowergenerationattheTSOsrequest; supplyingreactivepower;adjustingpowergenerationinresponsetofrequencychanges; andcontrollingorlimitingrampingincreases.

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VariousEuropeantransmissionsystemoperatorshaveimplementedmorecontrol requirementsforwindthanhavebeenseenintheUnitedStatessofar,suchasramprate limitsandtherequirementtoprovidereservesandfrequencycontrol.Ingeneral,these controlrequirementshavebeenafunctionofsmallcontrolareasorlimitedtransmission interconnections,orboth. Someofthemorestringentwindcontrolstrategieshavebeenproposedincountriesthat havelittleornogridinterconnections,andtheseparticularcircumstancesneedtobe keptinmindwhencomparinginternationalwindintegrationexperiences.Ramping eventswillbeofmoreconcerntosmallgrids,orgridswithfewexternal interconnections,orgridswithalargeconcentrationofwindprojectsinoneregion. Countrieswithmusttakerequirementsintheirrenewableenergyfeedinlawstendto havethetoughestgridcodeprovisionswithregardstowindcurtailment. Indescribingvariousancillaryservices,EuropeandtheUnitedStatesusedifferent terminology.InEurope,primaryreservesassistswiththeshortterm,minutetominute balancingandcontrolofthepowersystemfrequency,andisequivalentintheUnited Statestoregulation.SecondaryreservesinEuropetakeoverforprimaryreserves10to 30minuteslater,freeingupcapacitytobeusedasprimaryreserves.Theclosest terminologyintheUnitedStatesforsecondaryreservesiseitheroperatingreservesor loadfollowingreserves,whichmayincludebothspinningandnonspinning components.LongertermreservesinEuropearecalledtertiaryreservesandare availableintheperiodsaftersecondaryreserves.Tertiaryreservesareclosestto supplementalreservesintheUnitedStates,althoughthetimescalesmaybedifferent betweenEuropeandtheUnitedStates. Reconstitutingexistingreserveservicesmaybenecessaryashigherlevelsofvariable renewableenergygenerationisadded. Submittingscheduleswithshorterperiodsoftimebeforetherealtimemarketbegins willallowformoreaccuratepredictionsofwindgeneration,althoughsometradeoffs areinvolved. Variouswindintegrationstudiesandtransmissionsystemoperatorshavereported someoperatingissueswithwindgeneration,suchasminimumloadandhighramp rates.ANewZealandwindintegrationstudyusedminimumloadtodeterminehow muchwindcouldbeaccommodatedonitsgrid. Forramping,variousstudiessuggestthatwindwillrampupanddownwithin10%of capacitymuchofthetimeoveranhour.Handlingwindrampingcouldbemanaged withsufficientregulationorloadfollowinggeneration;windforecastingtopredict variabilityandrampingevents;performancelimitsonthewindgenerationsuchasramp ratelimits;orsharingreservesorenergyimbalancesovermultiplecontrolareas. Effortsarealsounderwayonimprovingthemodelingofwindprojectsfordetermining thepotentialimpactsonsystemreliabilityduringtheprocessofevaluating interconnectionapplicationsfromwindgenerators.

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Intermsofwindintegrationcosts,theresultsofvariousstudiesconductedtodateintheUnited Statesandoverseashavebeenreasonablyconsistent.Overall,thefindingscanbesummarized asfollows:

Thecostforintegratingwindisnonzeroandincreasesastheproportionofwind generationtoconventionalgeneratingresourcesorpeakloadincreases; Reservecostsattributedtowindintegrationarerelativelysmallatwindpenetration levelsoflessthan20%.Howthevariabilityanduncertaintyofwindgenerationinteracts withvariationsinloadandloadforecastinguncertaintyhasalargeimpactonthelevel ofwindintegrationcosts. Levelofgeographicconcentrationofwindprojectsalsoaffectswindintegrationcosts. Unitcommitmentimpactshavebeenamajorfocusofwindintegrationstudiesinthe UnitedStatesbuthavenotbeenaddressedasextensivelyintheEuropeanstudiesto date. BasedonseveralEuropeanstudiesthatestimatedthecostsofadditionalreserveswith windgeneration,costsweregenerallylessthan$6/MWhatwindenergypenetration levelsupto20%,althoughthecostsvariedsignificantlyamongtheindividualstudies. Reservecostsforwindgenerationaredependentonthecharacteristicsofthegridthatis integratingwind,theadequacyandcharacteristicsoftheexistingreserves,andthe specificreserverequirementsforeachgrid. StudiesestimatingthecapacitycreditofwindpowerinEuropedeterminedthatwind hasacapacitycreditgreaterthanzero,andalsothatthecapacitycreditdecreasesasthe levelofwindgenerationrises. Factorsthataffectthecapacitycreditofwindincludepresentlevelsofwindgeneration onthegrid;thequalityofthewindresource;thecapacityfactorofthewindprojects; whetherdemandandwindgenerationarecorrelatedoruncorrelated;thedegreeof systemsecurity;andthestrengthofthetransmissioninterconnections.

Astimegoeson,moresimilaritiesthandifferencesareapparentbetweenEuropeandthe UnitedStatesasvariablerenewableenergygenerationincreasesinmarketpenetration.These similaritiesaresparkinginformationexchangeandtransferthroughforumssuchasthe InternationalEnergyAgency,theInstituteofElectricalandElectronicsEngineersandtheUtility WindIntegrationGroup(UWIG).That,inturn,canhelpelevateprominentissuesandmakethe taskofdevelopingsolutionsandoptionsforintegratingvariablerenewableenergygeneration easier.

7.1

Benefits to California

CaliforniahasperhapsthemostsignificantanddiverseRPSintheUnitedStatesintermsofthe level(20%),timeframe(2010)andtheamountofrenewableenergycapacitythatmaybe requiredtomeetthetarget.Transmissionandtheintegrationofvariablerenewableenergy generationremainchallengesthatneedtobeaddressedinorderforCaliforniatomeetitsRPS goals.VariouscountriesinEuropehaveexperiencewithintegratinghighlevelsofvariable

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renewableenergygeneration.Byreviewingandhighlightingstrategiesandpracticesthathave beenusedtointegratewindinotherstatesandinothercountriesinthisreport,theIAPmay incorporatesomeofthesestrategiesandpracticesasoptionstotestpotentialeffectivenessin integratingvariablerenewableenergygenerationinthestate.ThehopeisthatCalifornia projectsandutilitiescanbegintoevaluateandincorporatesomeoftheseapproachesandtotest theireffectivenessinintegratingrenewables.

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Appendices

AppendixA ReviewofInternationalExperienceIntegratingVariableRenewableEnergy Generation.AppendixA:Denmark Thisappendixisavailableinaseparatevolume,CEC5002007XXXAPA. AppendixB ReviewofInternationalExperienceIntegratingVariableRenewableEnergy Generation.AppendixB:Germany Thisappendixisavailableinaseparatevolume,CEC5002007XXXAPB. AppendixC ReviewofInternationalExperienceIntegratingVariableRenewableEnergy Generation.AppendixC:India Thisappendixisavailableinaseparatevolume,CEC5002007XXXAPC. AppendixD ReviewofInternationalExperienceIntegratingVariableRenewableEnergy Generation.AppendixD:Spain Thisappendixisavailableinaseparatevolume,CEC5002007XXXAPD.