3-02) CLIMATE CHANGE Trends and Scenarios in PERU (Wilar Gamarra Molina SENAMHI)

TRENDS AND CLIMATE CHANGE SCENARIOS IN PERU
Wilar Gamarra Molina

wilargamarra@senamhi.gob.pe
National Weather and Hydrology Service of Per
Singapore, July 2009
ASI A P ACI FI C CLI M ATE SYM P OSI UM 2009
PER
Ministerio del Ambiente
Servicio Nacional de Meteorologa e Hidrologa - SENAMHI
Objectives
To
detect evidence of climate change in Peru. generate regional climate scenarios to 2030.
To
PER
In Peru
Increase of GHG emissions INCREASE OF GLOBAL TEMPERATURE (IPCC, 2007)
?
SOCIO-ECONOMICAL ASPECTS: POVERTY, ACCESS TO EDUCATION, etc
REGIONAL AND LOCAL CLIMATE IMPACTS IN PERU HIGH VULNERABILITY SECTORS
NATURAL ASPECTS: COMPLEX TOPOGRAPHY, DIVERSITY OF CLIMATES, RECURRENCE OF EXTREME EVENTS
HEALTH ENERGY AGRICULTURE SECURITY HYDROLOGICAL RESOURCES TOURISM SHIPPING

EDUCATION COMMERCE
PER
Evidences:
GLACIER RETREAT : YANAMAREY ( Cordillera Blanca- Height 4786 m above Sea Level)
1982
1987
1997
2005
PER
Extreme events:
Ica downtown Floods February 1998
Puno Snow July 2004
Huancayo Frost February 2007
Are these extreme events in Per linked to climate change?

San Martn Floods December 2006
PER
Factors that modulate the climate in Peru
PER
There are 27 different types of climates
Climate classification by Thornwaite

PER
Looking at the trends:

What is observed data indicating?
PER
METHODOLOGIES
Climate Trends Mann Kendall Method (non parametric test) Trend PP mm/year Trend TT C/year Climate change Extreme Climate Indexes detection Frisch et al. (2002), used in AR4 IPCC. Droughts SPI: Standarized Precipitation Index
PER
Rainfall trends (1965 2006)
(Sen (1968), Hirsch et al. (1982): Slope: SEN Method ; Test: Mann-Kendall
PER
Temperature trends (1965 2006)
PER
Basin
Level
AP EC CLI M ATE SYM P OSI UM 2009
PER
Representacin de los dominios de simulacin en la variable topografa (metros). rea Per a 60 km y rea de las cuencas de los ros Santa y Mayo a 20 km. ASI A P ACI FI C CLI M ATE SYM P OSI UM 2009
PER
Yearly Rainfall Trends
MAYO RIVER BASIN SANTA RIVER BASIN
PER
Temperature Trends
MAYO RIVER BASIN SANTA RIVER BASIN
PER
DETECTION OF CLIMATE CHANGE:

EXTREME INDEXES
PER
Extreme climate index
CDD: Consecutive dry days

Extreme climate index : Frisch (2002); FClimdex
CWD: Consecutive wet days

AP EC CLI M ATE SYM P OSI UM 2009
PER
R95p: very wet days
R5day: Max. 5-day Amount

PER
TX90p: Warm days
TN10p: Cool nights

PER
Basin
Level extreme indexes
PER
MAYO RIVER BASIN
SANTA RIVER BASIN
CDD: Consecutive dry days CWD: Consecutive wet days
PER
Standarized Precipitation Index (SPI)
PER
DROUGHTS
Temporal distribution
PER
CLIMATE CHANGE
What will we expect for the future?
How do global models see the South American topography?
PER
GLOBAL MODEL : ~ 300 Km
Methodology to generate scenarios
REGIONAL MODEL
60 Km
Dynamical downscaling
RAMS
Scenario Maps
GIS
20 Km
Chuquibambilla
250 200
SECTORS
150 100 50 0
ANALYSIS
19 31 19 35 19 39 19 43 19 47 19 51 19 55 19 59 19 63 19 67 19 71 19 75 19 79 19 83 19 87 19 91 19 95 19 99 20 03
PER
Downscaling setup
SRES A2 CCSM NCAR(characteristics)

Baseline: 1983-2003 per 6 hours Future period: 2004-2035 per 6 hours
RAMS 4.4 Model:

Horizontal resolution 60 km (national) Nesting 20 km (basins) Vertical levels: 30 Simulation period: 1983 - 2035 Time steps: 50 seconds
Products:
Time slice scenarios to 2020, centered in11 years (2015-2025) Time slice scenarios to 2030, centered in11 years(2025-2035) Reference: Hulme & Lu, 2000
PER
The future climate
Spatial distribution of rainfall change (%) and the extreme yearly prec. percentile 95 for year 2030 - CCSM/RAMS-SENAMHI
PER
The future climate
Spatial distribution of the yearly max. Temp. change (C) and its 90 percentile for year 2030 - CCSM/RAMS-SENAMHI
PER
The future climate
Spatial distribution of min. Temp. change (C) and its 90 percentile for year 2030 CCSM/RAMS-SENAMHI
PER
Conclusions In the northern coast and highlands we expect up to 20 % rainfall increment. In the northern jungle, we expect up to 20% rainfall decrease. The estimated rainfall index shows us a probable decrease in the next 30 years in a great portion of the peruvian territory.
PER
Conclusions In general the models show an increment in the max temperature up to 1,6 C in average (0.53C/10 years), and up to 1.4C for the min temp. (0.47C/10 years).
PER
Some identified obstacles
There are large gaps in the climate information for some important areas in Per. It is needed to identify with better accuracy the role of local, regional and global factors that condition the climate tendencies in the national analysis, in order to better understand the climate change process.
PER
What next?
Develop strategies to improve climate observation systems and data retrieval from different sources. Give an impulse to research in climate change and its impacts in the society, the economy and the ecosystems. Increase and strenghten international cooperation and exchange in data, information, technologies and knowledge. Update the climate scenarios.
PER
Thank you... and greetings from PERU

3-02) CLIMATE CHANGE Trends and Scenarios in PERU (Wilar Gamarra Molina SENAMHI)

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3-02) CLIMATE CHANGE Trends and Scenarios in PERU (Wilar Gamarra Molina SENAMHI)

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TRENDS AND CLIMATE CHANGE SCENARIOS IN PERU

Wilar Gamarra Molina

National Weather and Hydrology Service of Per

Singapore, July 2009

ASI A P ACI FI C CLI M ATE SYM P OSI UM 2009

Ministerio del Ambiente

Servicio Nacional de Meteorologa e Hidrologa - SENAMHI

Ministerio del Ambiente

Servicio Nacional de Meteorologa e Hidrologa - SENAMHI

REGIONAL AND LOCAL CLIMATE IMPACTS IN PERU HIGH VULNERABILITY SECTORS

NATURAL ASPECTS: COMPLEX TOPOGRAPHY, DIVERSITY OF CLIMATES, RECURRENCE OF EXTREME EVENTS

HEALTH ENERGY AGRICULTURE SECURITY HYDROLOGICAL RESOURCES TOURISM SHIPPING

Ministerio del Ambiente

Servicio Nacional de Meteorologa e Hidrologa - SENAMHI

Ministerio del Ambiente

Servicio Nacional de Meteorologa e Hidrologa - SENAMHI

Ica downtown Floods February 1998

Puno Snow July 2004

Huancayo Frost February 2007

Are these extreme events in Per linked to climate change?

San Martn Floods December 2006

Ministerio del Ambiente

Servicio Nacional de Meteorologa e Hidrologa - SENAMHI

Factors that modulate the climate in Peru

ASI A P ACI FI C CLI M ATE SYM P OSI UM 2009

Ministerio del Ambiente

Servicio Nacional de Meteorologa e Hidrologa - SENAMHI

There are 27 different types of climates

Climate classification by Thornwaite

Ministerio del Ambiente

Servicio Nacional de Meteorologa e Hidrologa - SENAMHI

Looking at the trends:

ASI A P ACI FI C CLI M ATE SYM P OSI UM 2009

Ministerio del Ambiente

Servicio Nacional de Meteorologa e Hidrologa - SENAMHI

ASI A P ACI FI C CLI M ATE SYM P OSI UM 2009

Ministerio del Ambiente

Servicio Nacional de Meteorologa e Hidrologa - SENAMHI

Rainfall trends (1965 2006)

Ministerio del Ambiente

Servicio Nacional de Meteorologa e Hidrologa - SENAMHI

Temperature trends (1965 2006)

ASI A P ACI FI C CLI M ATE SYM P OSI UM 2009

Ministerio del Ambiente

Servicio Nacional de Meteorologa e Hidrologa - SENAMHI

AP EC CLI M ATE SYM P OSI UM 2009

Ministerio del Ambiente

Servicio Nacional de Meteorologa e Hidrologa - SENAMHI

Ministerio del Ambiente

Servicio Nacional de Meteorologa e Hidrologa - SENAMHI

Yearly Rainfall Trends

MAYO RIVER BASIN SANTA RIVER BASIN

ASI A P ACI FI C CLI M ATE SYM P OSI UM 2009

Ministerio del Ambiente

Servicio Nacional de Meteorologa e Hidrologa - SENAMHI

ASI A P ACI FI C CLI M ATE SYM P OSI UM 2009

Ministerio del Ambiente

Servicio Nacional de Meteorologa e Hidrologa - SENAMHI

DETECTION OF CLIMATE CHANGE:

ASI A P ACI FI C CLI M ATE SYM P OSI UM 2009

Ministerio del Ambiente

Servicio Nacional de Meteorologa e Hidrologa - SENAMHI