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Andhra Bank
Performance Highlights
Particulars (` cr) NII Pre-prov. profit PAT 2QFY13 894 638 326 1QFY13 938 704 363 % chg (qoq) (4.8) (9.4) (10.3) 2QFY12 951 687 316 % chg (yoy) (6.0) (7.1) 3.0
NEUTRAL
CMP Target Price
Investment Period
Stock Info Sector Market Cap (` cr) Beta 52 Week High / Low Avg. Daily Volume Face Value (`) BSE Sensex Nifty Reuters Code Bloomberg Code Banking 5,383 1.0 139/79 75,815 10 17,558 5,320 ADBK.BO ANDB@IN
`96 -
Andhra Bank posted a weak operating performance, with a 7.1% yoy decline in its operating profit. However, the bank was able to report a marginal net profit growth of 3.0%, aided by lower provisioning expenses (PCR declined by 723bp qoq). Slippages continued to remain elevated for the bank, which coupled with lower recoveries/upgrades, resulted in persistent asset quality stress. NIMs decline sequentially; Asset quality faces persistent stress: The bank witnessed a healthy growth in its business during 2QFY2013, with advances and deposits registering a growth of 15.9% and 15.0% yoy, respectively. The healthy advances growth was largely aided by strong growth in agri book and robust growth in SME and Corporate book. CASA deposits grew at 14.0% yoy. The CASA ratio declined by 78bp qoq to 25.9%. Reported NIMs were lower by 20bp qoq to 3.1% on account of an 8bp qoq decline in yield on advances and 29bp sequentially higher costs of deposits. The bank witnessed a robust growth of 37.6% yoy on the non-interest income (excluding treasury) front, which was largely aided by strong growth of 30.8% yoy in fee income and higher recoveries. On the asset quality front, the bank continued to see stress, with both gross and net NPA levels increasing sequentially by 27.8% and 41.6%, respectively. Slippages came in at `771cr, though lower compared to `833cr in 1QFY2013, but remained elevated considering slippages of `853cr in entire 2HFY2012. `530cr of the incremental slippages came out of 3 chunky accounts belonging to pharmaceuticals, hotels and gems & jewelry sector. The management however exuded confidence in upgrading two of these three accounts in the coming quarter. Recoveries/upgrades came in lower at `113cr compared to `142cr in 1QFY2013 and `551cr in 4QFY2012. PCR dipped by a substantial 723bp qoq to 53.2%. The bank also restructured advances worth `451cr, which largely came from infrastructure, iron & steel and textiles sectors. As of 2QFY2013, the total outstanding restructured book stands at `9,077cr (10.6% of total advances). The management has guided for advances worth ~`1,200cr to be in the restructuring pipeline for 2HFY2013, which includes an advance of ~`450cr to Tamil Nadu SEB. Outlook and valuation: At the CMP, the stock is trading at 0.7x FY2014E ABV compared to its eight-year range of 0.81.4x one-year forward ABV with a median of 1.1x. Considering the banks relatively higher risk exposure, particularly to the power, iron & steel and textiles sectors, and taking into account that peers of the bank are also trading at similar valuations with similar or better asset quality outlook, we remain Neutral on the stock. Key financials (standalone)
Y/E March (` cr) NII % chg Net profit % chg NIM (%) EPS (`) P/E (x) P/ABV (x) RoA (%) RoE (%)
Source: Company, Angel Research
Shareholding Pattern (%) Promoters MF / Banks / Indian Fls FII / NRIs / OCBs Indian Public / Others 58.0 15.2 13.4 13.5
3m 6.9 (8.1)
FY2011 3,221 46.8 1,267 21.2 3.3 22.6 4.6 0.9 1.3 23.2
FY2012 3,759 16.7 1,345 6.1 3.3 24.0 4.3 0.8 1.1 19.2
FY2013E 3,805 1.2 1,204 (10.5) 2.9 21.5 4.8 0.8 0.9 15.2
FY2014E 4,415 16.0 1,220 1.3 3.0 21.8 4.8 0.7 0.8 13.8
Vaibhav Agrawal
022 3935 7800 Ext: 6808 vaibhav.agrawal@angelbroking.com
Sourabh Taparia
022 3935 7800 Ext: 6872 sourabh.taparia@angelbroking.com
2QFY13 3,198 2,551 602 27 18 2,304 894 219 214 70 5 16 128 1,113 475 297 178 638 139 121 (14) 32 499 173 326 34.7
1QFY13 3,121 2,520 579 22 2,183 938 236 211 65 25 44 103 1,174 470 296 174 704 207 157 13 36 498 135 363 27.1
% chg (qoq) 2.5 1.2 4.0 23.7 5.6 (4.8) (6.9) 1.4 8.8 (78.4) (63.8) 24.8 (5.2) 1.1 0.4 2.3 (9.4) (32.5) (22.9) (9.8) 0.2 28.1 (10.3) 758bp
2QFY12 2,783 2,293 477 13 1,831 951 178 156 62 22 4 90 1,129 442 274 169 687 261 221 3 37 426 110 316 25.8
% chg (yoy) 14.9 11.3 26.3 113.6 25.8 (6.0) 23.4 37.6 14.2 (76.0) 288.3 42.2 (1.4) 7.4 8.5 5.6 (7.1) (46.5) (45.1) (12.2) 17.0 57.3 3.0 888bp
FY2012 6,320 5,071 1,181 49 18 4,487 1,832 455 425 135 30 60 231 2,287 945 593 352 1,342 346 279 (1) 68 996 308 688 30.9
FY2011 5,417 4,458 930 18 12 3,555 1,862 395 313 119 82 9 186 2,256 870 547 323 1,386 438 338 5 95 949 247 702 26.0
% chg 16.7 13.8 27.1 178.3 49.3 26.2 (1.6) 15.3 35.8 13.4 (63.3) 597.6 24.1 1.4 8.6 8.4 9.0 (3.2) (20.9) (17.6) (28.1) 5.0 24.7 (1.9) 488bp
Actual 894 219 1,113 475 638 139 499 173 326
Estimates 972 208 1,180 490 690 274 416 108 308
Var. (%) (8.0) 5.4 (5.6) (3.0) (7.5) (49.0) 19.7 59.8 5.7
2QFY13 1QFY13 % chg (qoq) 2QFY12 % chg (yoy) 85,299 78.5 5,937 22,219 28,156 25.9 12.4 8.5 8.0 12.0 8.0 10.0 7.2 3.1 42.7 3,014 3.5 1,831 2.2 53.2 3.7 0.4 86,612 80.4 6,269 22,485 28,754 26.7 12.7 8.7 7.7 12.1 7.9 10.0 7.0 3.3 40.0 2,358 2.7 1,293 1.5 60.4 4.0 0.5 (1.5) 0.9 (191)bp (5.3) (1.2) (2.1) (78)bp (29)bp (21)bp 29bp (8)bp 8bp 4bp 24bp (20)bp 267bp 27.8 76bp 41.6 64bp (723)bp (29)bp (12)bp 73,592 94,435 77.9 5,338 19,355 24,693 26.1 13.1 8.8 7.5 12.5 7.8 10.1 6.7 3.8 39.2 1,987 2.7 1,087 1.5 61.7 6.1 0.8 15.9 15.0 58bp 11.2 14.8 14.0 (23)bp (68)bp (30)bp 58bp (45)bp 26bp (10)bp 56bp (69)bp 351bp 51.7 81bp 68.5 68bp (854)bp (244)bp (42)bp
108,647 107,695
80.2
78.5
79.5 78.5
77.9
21.5 20.2
20.7 20.2
17.1 14.9
14.4 18.5
15.9 15.0
26.1
26.6
26.4
26.7
77.5 76.5
7.74
Strong growth in fee income and higher recoveries, lead to robust growth in non-interest income
During 2QFY2013, the bank witnessed a robust growth of 37.6% yoy in noninterest income (excluding treasury), which was largely aided by strong growth of 30.8% yoy in fee income and higher recoveries. Growth in CEB income was moderate at 14.2% yoy, however a strong performance by forex and other income streams resulted in a strong growth of 30.8% yoy in the overall fee income. Recoveries came in higher during the quarter at `16cr compared to `4cr in 2QFY2012. The treasury income was lower at `5cr compared to `22cr in 2QFY2012 on account of a high base (investments in liquid MFs liquidated post the RBI limit of 10% of NW). Overall, the non-interest income witnessed a strong growth of 23.4% yoy, during 2QFY2013.
Elevated slippages coupled with lower recoveries/upgrades resulted in persistent asset quality stress
During 2QFY2013, the asset quality for the bank continued to see stress, with both gross and net NPA levels increasing sequentially by 27.8% and 41.6%, respectively. Consequently gross and net NPA ratios were higher by 76bp and 64bp qoq respectively to 3.5% and 2.2%. Slippages came in at `771cr, which
25.9
though were lower compared to `833cr in 1QFY2013, but remained elevated considering slippages of `853cr in entire 2HFY2012. The annualized slippage ratio came in at 3.7% compared to 4.0% in 1QFY2013. `530cr of the incremental slippages came out of 3 chunky accounts belonging to pharmaceuticals, hotels and gems & jewelry sector. The management however exuded confidence in upgrading two of these three accounts in the coming quarter. Recoveries/upgrades came in lower during the quarter at `113cr compared to
`142cr in 1QFY2013 and `551cr in 4QFY2012. The management was not able to recover a chunky advance amounting to ~`200cr, which it had guided for. The PCR dipped on a sequential basis by a substantial 723bp to 53.2%. The management plans to increase the PCR level to 60% by FY2013.
During the quarter, the bank also restructured advances worth `451cr compared to restructuring of `751 in 1QFY2013, which largely came from infrastructure, iron & steel and textiles sectors. As of 2QFY2013, the banks total outstanding restructured book stands at `9,077cr (10.6% of total advances). The management has guided for advances worth ~`1,200cr to be in the restructuring pipeline for 2HFY2013, which includes an advance of ~`450cr to Tamil Nadu SEB.
2.7 1.5
2.4 1.2
2.1 0.9
2.7 1.5
3.5 2.2
4.0
330 320 310 300 290 280 270 260 250 2QFY12 3QFY12 0.2 4.1
3.7
0.4 -
15.0
2.1
1.0
0.1
2.6
2.0
6.1
11.9
39.2
37.0
42.2
40.0
42.7
274
285
319
296
34.0
297
36.0
(7.2)
(5.0) (10.0)
4QFY12
1QFY13
2QFY13
Investment concerns
Moderate fee income; low CASA
During FY200712, the fee income for the bank reported a CAGR of only 9.6% compared to advances posting a CAGR of 24.6%. In fact, the bank registered a negative growth in fee income during FY2012, which has led to the proportion of fee income to overall assets declining from 0.8% in FY2011 to 0.6% as of FY2012. On the CASA front, the banks market share has fallen by 26bp over FY2005FY2012; and at 25.9%, the banks CASA ratio is on the lower end compared to peers.
Earlier estimates FY2013 12.0 13.0 25.5 3.1 7.6 12.0 15.0 2.8 65.0 FY2014 13.0 15.0 24.5 3.1 10.3 13.0 13.0 2.7 67.5
Revised estimates FY2013 12.0 13.0 25.5 2.9 7.7 8.0 15.0 3.8 55.0 FY2014 13.0 15.0 24.5 3.0 9.8 13.0 13.0 3.1 60.0
FY2014 Earlier estimates 4,612 1,021 5,633 2,306 3,327 1,366 1,961 588 1,373 Revised Var. (%) estimates 4,415 1,016 5,431 2,254 3,178 1,372 1,806 586 1,220 (4.3) (0.5) (3.6) (2.3) (4.5) 0.4 (7.9) (0.4) (11.1)
Earlier estimates 4,003 926 4,929 2,040 2,888 1,095 1,793 466 1,327
Revised Var. (%) estimates 3,805 926 4,731 1,994 2,736 1,017 1,720 516 1,204 (5.0) 0.0 (4.0) (2.3) (5.3) (7.2) (4.1) 10.7 (9.3)
0.6x
0.8x
1x
1.2x
1.4x
Source: Company, Angel Research; Note: *Target multiples=SOTP Target Price/ABV (including subsidiaries); # without adjusting for SASF
Company Background
Andhra Bank is a mid-sized PSU bank, with a balance sheet size of ~`1.3lakh cr. The bank has a network of over 1,730 branches, mainly concentrated in the southern region (~two-third of total branches in the parent state of Andhra Pradesh).
59,390 77,688
16,911 20,881 44,139 56,114 28.9 335 1,796 21.0 27.1 356 1,825 31.9
35,422 42,584 93,679 105,857 12.0 330 3,092 12.6 13.0 367 3,539 14.5
10
E-mail: research@angelbroking.com
Website: www.angelbroking.com
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Disclosure of Interest Statement 1. Analyst ownership of the stock 2. Angel and its Group companies ownership of the stock 3. Angel and its Group companies' Directors ownership of the stock 4. Broking relationship with company covered
Andhra Bank No No No No
Note: We have not considered any Exposure below ` 1 lakh for Angel, its Group companies and Directors
Ratings (Returns):
11