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Hey Bartley!
Sitting in the midst of industrial estates and Serangoon, Bartley houses clusters of old terraces and landed estates, as well as the Gurkha Cantonment and Mount Vernon Cemetery. As outlined in the 1998 Master Plan, the area would accommodate new public housing and other recreational facilities. To begin with, Bidadari Cemetery was fully cleared to make room for new bus interchanges and the downtown MRT line. Soon after, the URA began to launch parcels of land via the Government Land Sales (GLS) programme. With an estimated 1,705 units coming on-stream starting in 2015 so far, Bartley Road will soon be crowded. Bartley Road/Lorong How Sun site quipped developers interest in 2011, as the site was slated next to land parcels targeted for new HDB and retail developments. The 99-year leasehold received a total of eight bids. The winning bid of SGD413.3m, or SGD620.6psf ppr, came from the joint venture of Hong Leong Holdings, City Developments, and TID. Now known as Bartley Residences, it comprises four blocks with a total of 702 units. As of October 2012, the JV has sold 559 units. Just down the road, TA Corporations Gambir Ridge was launched in September; its take-up rate was an overwhelming 90% 70 out of 77 units were sold in the first month. Previously Bartley Terrace, the site was sold in an enbloc sale for SGD40m in 2011. With a maximum GFA of 56,674.8sq ft, the land cost works out to SGD705psf ppr. Investors may have a few more choices coming up, as more sites in the area have been sold to developers recently. CDL and Hong Leong will spearhead the launch of another development site just opposite Bartley Residences. The site was purchased at a less bullish price of SGD388.1m, or SGD495psf ppr, implying a 25.4% discount to the older site, in January 2012. The site received five bids: the top bid from a JV of Fraser Centrepoint and Lum Chang Construction was 7.5% higher than the secondhighest bid. Another site to look out for will be an amalgamation of Bartley Court, Bartley Grove, and three terrace houses. Together, they received an enbloc offer of SGD84.8m, or SGD794psf ppr, in April and August 2012, respectively. The project will house approximately 141 units. Figure 1: Recent GLS and enbloc sales Date of Project Award Developers Bartley Residences Gambir Ridge (Prev. Bartley Terrace) Mount Vernon site Prev. Bartley Grove & 3 terrace houses Prev. Bartley Court
Source: URA, CNA
22 November 2012
CDL, Hong Leong Holdings, TID TA Corporation CDL, Hong Leong Holdings, TID Top Global Top Global
Figure 2: Upcoming land parcel sold to CDL, Hong Leong & TID, and Bartley Residences
Source: URA
Source: URA
Transaction trends. New condo developments such as Bartley Residences and Gambir Ridge are being transacted within the range of SGD1,008.0-1,432.4psf. Units under 750 sq ft are selling at SGD1,360.2 psf on average, while units above 1,500 sq ft have an ASP of SGD1,100 psf. Older estates such as Bartley Rise Estate and Bartley Villas experienced a good bump-up in resale prices that rose in tandem with the new sales. Developers more cautious than resale buyers. While we are seeing a few bullish resale transactions rising above SGD1,000 psf in the older estates, investors should take note of developers caution, as in the case of the Mount Vernon site price bid. Enbloc sales have also received lower-than-expected bids. For example, Bartley Grove had an asking price of SGD70m, implying land cost of SGD904psf ppr in 2010. The overall selling price that was negotiated was 11.5% lower than before 2012, when combined with three terrace houses. Figure 4: Rental around Bartley Minimum 25th Percentile (psf pm) (psf pm) 3Q11 4Q11 1Q12 2Q12 3Q12
Source: URA
HDB Development
Mount Vernon site (CDL, Hong Leong, TID)
Source: URA
22 November 2012
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Figure x: Top five selling projects in each region CCR Total Units Project Units sold Jan-12 The Scotts Tower 231 9 D'Leedon 1715 2 The Laurels 229 1 The Coterie @ Holland 36 1 Buckley Classique 64 1 Feb'12 Aspen Linq 18 17 D'Leedon 1715 6 The Scotts Tower 231 4 Adria 105 3 Skysuites@Anson The Scotts Tower Altez Vermont On Cairnhill Skysuites@Anson Rochelle At Newton Eon Shenton Rochelle At Newton 8 Bassein Marina Bay Suites The Scotts Tower D'Leedon Stellar Rv Eon Shenton 8 Bassein Up@Robertson Quay 1919 8 Bassein D'Leedon Stellar Rv Eon Shenton V On Shenton The Mkz Stellar Rv D'Leedon Eon Shenton V On Shenton Leedon Res Stellar Rv Up@ Robertson Quay 8 Bassein Stellar Rv V On Shenton 360 231 280 158 360 129 132 129 74 221 231 1715 120 132 74 70 75 74 1715 120 132 510 42 120 1715 132 510 381 120 70 74 120 510 381 74 1715 2 9 7 4 4 3 87 19 16 12 8 30 17 16 16 13 74 12 9 8 5 144 30 19 10 7 65 27 21 11 10 60 49 26 21 14
OCR PSF 3,331 1,558 3,062 2,093 2,089 1,951 1,750 3,470 1,885 1,958 3,265 2,312 2,587 2,042 1,410 2,485 1,434 1,939 2,675 3,554 1,484 2,039 2,233 1,955 2,474 2,042 1,992 1,459 2,045 2,295 2,061 1,976 2,077 1,527 2,291 2,019 1,970 2,022 2,825 1,858 2,048 2,244 1,898 1,877 1,500 Project Watertown Hillier Parc Rosewood Rainforest Nautical Parc Rosewood Twin Waterfalls Tampines Trilliant The Rainforest Watertown Twin Waterfalls Ripple Bay Tampines Trilliant The Minton Riversound Res Ripple Bay Hillsta Palm Isles Promenade@ Pelikat Archipelago Flo Residence 1 Canberra Seahill Ripple Bay Archipelago River Isles Sea Esta Watercolours Flo Residence Tropika East Parc Centros Parc Olympia River Isles Bartley Res Sea Esta Parc Olympia Bartley Res Flo Residence River Isles Archipelago Eco Kovan Regency Riversails Foresque Res Bartley Res Total Units 992 528 689 466 435 689 728 670 466 992 728 679 670 1145 590 679 416 429 164 577 530 665 454 679 577 610 376 416 530 105 618 486 610 702 376 486 702 530 610 577 748 393 920 496 702 Units sold 770 387 198 172 83 380 257 187 186 182 369 326 153 118 115 174 154 153 106 91 266 209 200 61 48 263 255 201 62 59 492 204 86 59 59 110 70 62 55 51 402 369 203 104 78 PSF 1,169 1,289 951 753 890 994 727 803 752 1,341 725 883 798 890 880 876 1,054 871 1,189 1,062 863 711 1,383 863 1,083 835 906 735 820 1,312 924 874 836 1,343 880 870 1,246 843 857 1,093 1,283 1,275 849 1,090 1,221
RCR Project Farrer Park Suites Centra Residence Nottinghill Suites Silversea Central Imperial Guillemard Edge Thomson Grand Centra Residence Nottinghill Suites Suites At Bukit Timah Millage Thomson Grand Sycamore Tree Smart Suites Cradels Katong Regency Sky Habitat Thomson Grand 18 Woodsville Smart Suites Eight Riversuites Urban Heritage Riviera 38 Interlace Skyline Residences Eight Riversuites Ness M66 Reflections At Keppel Bay Cityscape @Farrer Park Eight Riversuites M66 The Line @ Tanjong Rhu Nottinghill Suites Idyllic Suites One Dusun Res Eight Riversuites Cityscape @Farrer Park Metro Loft Riviera 38 Eight Riversuites Cradels Cityscape @Farrer Park 28 Imperial Res Nin Residence Total Units 29 78 124 383 63 275 361 78 124 71 70 361 96 72 125 244 509 361 101 72 862 15 102 1040 283 862 62 70 1129 250 862 70 130 124 71 154 862 250 31 102 862 125 250 42 219 Units sold 14 13 11 6 5 275 51 36 21 16 69 54 41 34 31 244 131 68 46 32 192 12 11 10 8 31 12 10 6 5 33 28 13 12 11 153 47 23 17 15 62 41 27 23 18 PSF 1,451 1,327 1,596 1,731 1,050 1,215 1,305 1,353 1,580 1,631 1,379 1,270 1,388 1,448 1,308 1,709 1,583 1,292 1,806 1,430 1,340 1,504 1,152 1,160 2,074 1,381 1,302 1,361 1,828 1,353 1,400 1,352 2,238 1,549 1,252 1,532 1,283 1,384 1,404 1,117 1,325 1,478 1,407 1,428 1,220
Mar'12
Apr'12
May'12
Jun12
Jul'12
Aug'12
Sep'12
22 November 2012
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MARKET SNAPSHOT
Property Price Indices
Index SRPI Overall (Aug 12) URA PPI (3Q12) HDB Resale (3Q12) Level 1694 208.0 197.9 Change +1.2% +0.5% +2.0% Reserve List
Site
22 November 2012
Analyst: Alison FOK 65-6433 5745 alisonfok@kimeng.com
Site area (ha) 1.0 2.1 1.7 0.6 1.7 0.9 2.3 1.6 1.9 2.7
Units 240 1045 515 500 na 495 680 470 600 595
Jalan Jurong Kechil Stirling Road Tampines Av 10 (Parcel B) Kim Tian Road Sengkang West Way Alexandra Road/ Alexandra View (Parcel B) Tampines Avenue 10 (Parcel C) Tampines Avenue 10 (Parcel D) Jurong West Street 41/ Boon Lay Way (Parcel B) New Upper Changi Road / Bedok South Avenue 3 (Parcel B)
Status Closed, 23 bids received Available Available Available Available Launched Available Available Available Avail. in Dec
Collective Sales
Pending for offer
Site Katong Park Towers Land area (k sq m) 27.5 Land price (S$m) 330-340 $psf ppr 11451178 Land price (S$m) 77.5 590 192 92.2 132 106 74 40.3 Tender closes Nov 6
Confirmed List
Site Sengkang West Way/ Fernvale Link (Parcel B) (EC) Pasir Ris Drive 3/ Pasir Ris Rise (EC) Bishan Street 14 Sembawang Crescent/ Sembawang Drive (EC) Punggol Field Walk/ Punggol East (EC) Ang Mo Kio Avenue 2/ Ang Mo Kio Street 13 Jurong West Street 41/ Boon Lay Way (Parcel A) Commonwealth Avenue Source: HDB, URA Site area (ha) 1.4 2.8 1.1 2.3 1.5 1.8 2.2 1.2 Units 420 590 645 650 435 680 825 700 Est. launch date Closed Nov-12 Launched Launched Launched Nov-12 Nov-12 Dec-12
Property Stocks
Company Price RNAV CapitaLand 3.37 5.15 City Developments 11.28 12.62 -11% Guocoland 2.4 NA NA Ho Bee 1.53 2.98 -49% Keppel land 3.39 5.86 -42% OUE 2.6 NA NA SC Global 1.135 NA NA Singapore Land 6.8 10.72 -37% UIC 2.76 NA NA UOL 5.39 NA NA Wheelock Properties 1.83 NA NA Wing Tai 1.69 2.81 -40% N.A. = No Coverage *As at latest reported Disc to RNAV -35% NAV /share 3.54 7.66 2.13 2.34 3.64 3.44 1.48 11.69 3.16 7.19 2.42 2.51 Disc/ Prem to NAV -5% 47% 13% -35% -7% -24% -23% -42% -13% -25% -24% -33%
22 November 2012
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MARKET SNAPSHOT(CONTD)
Primary Market
Total no. of units Units sold todate Takeup rate (%) 54% 60% 19% 32%
Units sold (Sep)
22 November 2012
Analyst: Alison FOK 65-6433 5745 alisonfok@kimeng.com
Secondary Market
District City & Southwest Orchard/Tanglin/Holland Newton/Bukit Timah/Clementi Balestier/MacPherson/Geylang East Coast Changi/Pasir Ris Serangoon/Thomson West North Source: URA $psf Sep12 1,605 2,020 1,365 1,245 1,136 884 997 992 916 $psf Oct12 1,501 1,836 1,354 1,113 1,091 827 1,004 915 823 MoM % change -6.5 -9.1 -0.8 -10.6 -4.0 -6.4 0.7 -7.8 -10.2
Median
City & Southwest (1-8) V On Shenton 510 277 Cityscape @Farrer Park 250 151 Orchard/Tanglin/Holland (9-10) Leedon Residence 381 73 D'Leedon 1715 549 Newton / Bukit Timah / Clementi (11,21) Balestier / MacPherson / Geylang (12-14) Sky Green 176 145 The Interweave 169 156 Eight Riversuites 862 372 28 Imperial Residences 42 42 The Viridian 108 41 East Coast (15-16) Eco 748 538 Bedok Residences 583 548 Changi / Pasir Ris (17-18) The Palette 892 835 Watercolours (EC) 416 270 Tampines Trilliant (EC) 670 578 Parc Olympia 486 403 Ripple Bay 679 623 Palm Isles 429 350 My Manhattan 301 280 Sea Esta 376 368 Hedges Park Condo 501 407 Serangoon / Thomson (19-20) Heron Bay (EC) 394 354 Riversails 920 472 Waterbay (EC) 383 221 Bartley Residences 702 613 River Isles Riversound Residence The Luxurie Flo Residence Parc Centros Boathouse Residences Parc Vera Sky Habitat West (22-24) Foresque Residences Hillsta North (25-28) Skies Miltonia 1 Canberra (EC) The Nautical Seletar Park Residence Source: URA 610 590 622 530 618 493 452 509 496 416 420 665 435 276 532 473 538 510 617 448 445 141 412 254 309 327 381 217
33 27 23 13
82% 92% 43% 100% 38% 72% 94% 94% 65% 86% 83% 92% 82% 93% 98% 81% 90% 51% 58% 87% 87% 80% 86% 96% 100% 91% 98% 28% 83% 61% 74% 49% 88% 79%
1516 1140 1360 1377 1463 1392 1270 892 719 804 858 884 936 1208 891 885 738 848 752 1224 831 852 1080 875 1213 913 942 1523 1181 1140 1034 722 889 846
Rental Market
District City & Southwest Orchard/Tanglin/Holland Newton/Bukit Timah/Clementi Balestier/MacPherson/Geylang East Coast Changi/Pasir Ris Serangoon/Thomson West North Source: URA $psf pm Aug12 3.9 3.7 3.0 3.0 2.9 2.6 2.8 2.7 2.5 $psf pm Sept12 5.0 4.5 3.6 3.6 3.4 2.8 3.2 2.9 2.8 MoM % Change 27.7 22.7 19.7 18.9 15.5 6.9 13.4 8.9 10.4
22 November 2012
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DEVELOPERS LANDBANK
Developer District 1 3 6 9 9 10 10 10 11 17 18 18 19 19 19 19 Sentosa Landbank
22 November 2012
Analyst: Alison FOK 65-6433 5745 alisonfok@kimeng.com
Unsold Units 20 560 118 122 27 203 178 156 3 94 57 605 130 89 785 23 207
City Dev
One Shenton (Marina Bay) Alexandra Road GLS site (Alexandra Road) South Beach (Beach Road) Futura (Leonie Road) Up @ Robertson Quay (Robertson Quay) Boulevard Hotel (Cuscaden Road) Lucky Tower (Grange Road) Nouvel 18 (Anderson Road) Buckley Classique (Buckley Road) Hedges Park (Flora Road) The Palette (Pasir Ris) Tampines/Upp Changi Rd North (Tampines/Upp Changi Rd North) H2O Residences (Sengkang West Ave) Bartley Residences (Bartley Road) Mount Vernon GLS site (Bartley Road) Haus @ Serangoon Garden (Serangoon Garden Way) Residences at W (Sentosa Cove) 15, 19 & 21 Swiss Road (Swiss Club Road) Total Unsold Units
3,377 99 Freehold 99 99 99 99 99 99 35 590 256 367 234 94 84 700 2,360 303 38 13 5 1,166 55 150 35 368 140 2,273 1 110 357 468 17 3 405 170 595 161 131 248 5 147 6 20 2 62 782 72 84 156
KepLand
1 2 4 4 4 4 19 16
Marina Bay Suites (Marina Bay) Keppel & GE Towers site (Tanjong Pagar) Reflections at Keppel Bay (Keppel Bay) Keppel Bay Plot 3 (Keppel Bay) Keppel Bay Plot 4 (Keppel Bay) Keppel Bay Plot 5 (Keppel Bay) The Luxurie (Sengkang Square) Tanah Merah Site (Tanah Merar) Total Unsold Units The Interlace (Gillman Heights) Urban Resort (Cairnhill Rd) Orchard Residences (Orchard Road) Wharf Residence (Tong Watt Road) D'Leedon (Farrer Rd) The Nassim (Nassim Rd) Marine Point (Marine Parade) Bedok Residences (Bedok Central) Sky Habitat (Bishan Street 14) Yio Chu Kang site (Yio Chu Kang Rd) Total Unsold Units
CapitaLand
3 9 9 9 10 10 15 16 20 26
99Yr Freehold 99Yr 999Yr 99Yr Freehold Freehold 99Yr 99Yr Freehold
Ho Bee
Sentosa Sentosa 11
Seascape at Sentosa Cove (Sentosa Cove) Pinnacle at Sentosa Cove (Sentosa Cove) Trilight (Newton Road) Total Unsold Units Spottiswoode Residences (Spottiswoode Park) Archipelago (Bedok Reservoir Rd) Bright Hill Drive (Bright Hill) St Patricks Road (Upper East Coast) Total Unsold Units Skysuites @ Anson (Enggor Street) The Surrento (West Coast Road) RV Residences (River Valley) Holland Residences (Taman Warna) Riverbay (Mar Thorma Rd) Riviera 38 (Mar Thorma Rd) The Cascadia (Bukit Timah Road) Pavilion Park (Phase 1D) (Bukit Batok Road) Pavilion Park (Phase 2) (Bukit Batok Road) Total Unsold Units Scotts Square (Scotts Road) Ardmore 3 (Ardmore Park) Total Unsold Units
UOL
2 16 19 16
Allgreen
2 5 9 10 12 12 21 23 23
Wheelock
9 10
Freehold Freehold
22 November 2012
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22 November 2012
Analyst: Alison FOK 65-6433 5745 alisonfok@kimeng.com
Unsold Units 500 2 308 74 4 888 57 40 24 88 221 80 232 68 810 249 32 10 595 67 79 45 26 2 25 1,130 64 38 42 157 13 84 156 554
Tanjong Pagar GLS white site (Peck Seah / Choon Guan) Sophia Residence (Mount Sophia) Leedon Residence (Leedon Heights) Goodwood Residence (Bukit Timah Road) The Waterline (Yio Chu Kang Rd) Total Unsold Units Skyline Residences (Telok Blangah) The Vermont on Cairnhill (Cairnhill Rd) Paterson Suites (Paterson Rd) Paterson Suites II (Paterson Rd) St Thomas Walk (St Thomas Walk) Watercove Villes (Wak Hassan Drive) Nim Road (Nim Road) Luxus Hills (Seletar Green) Total Unsold Units
Bt Sembawang
4 9 9 9 9 27 28 28
Frasers Centrepoint
9 15 16 16 18 18 19 19 19 27
Starhub Centre (Cuppage Rd) Flamingo Valley (Siglap Rd) Waterfront Isle (Bedok Reservoir Rd) Bedok South GLS site (Bedok South Avenue 3) Seastrand (Pasir Ris Drive 3) Palm Isles (Flora Drive) Boathouse Residences (Hougang) Watertown (Punggol) Twin Waterfalls (Punggol Way / Punggol Field) Eight Courtyards (Yishun Ave 2) Total Unsold Units HELIOS Residence (Cairnhill Circle) Belle Vue Residences (Oxley Walk) Le Nouvel Ardmore (Ardmore Park) Anderson 18 (Ardmore Park) L'VIV (Newton Rd) Foresque Residences (Petir Road) Nouvel 18 (Anderson Road) Total Unsold Units
99yr Freehold 99yr 99yr 99yr 99yr 99yr 99yr 99yr 99yr
Wing Tai
9 9 10 10 11 23 10
MCL Land
11 10 15 16 17 22
Palms @ Sixth Avenue (Six Avenue ) NOB Hill (Ewe Boon Rd) Casa Nassau (East Coast Rd) Uber 388 (Upper East Cost) Ripple Bay (Jalan Loyang Besar) Boon Lay (Jurong East) Total Unsold Units
SC Global
9 9 9 9 Sentosa
The Marq (Paterson Hill) Hilltops (Cairnhill Circle) Martin No. 38 (Martin Rd) Sculptura Ardmore (Ardmore Park) Seven Palms (Sentosa Cove) Total Unsold Units
14545
22 November 2012
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22 November 2012
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Disclosure of Interest
Malaysia: MKE and its Representatives may from time to time have positions or be materially interested in the securities referred to herein and may further act as market maker or may have assumed an underwriting commitment or deal with such securities and may also perform or seek to perform investment banking services, advisory and other services for or relating to those companies. Singapore: As of 22 November 2012, Maybank KERPL and the covering analyst do not have any interest in any companies recommended in this research report. Thailand: MBKET may have a business relationship with or may possibly be an issuer of derivative warrants on the securities /companies mentioned in the research report. Therefore, Investors should exercise their own judgment before making any investment decisions. MBKET, its associates, directors, connected parties and/or employees may from time to time have interests and/or underwriting commitments in the securities mentioned in this report. Hong Kong: KESHK may have financial interests in relation to an issuer or a new listing applicant referred to as defined by the requirements under Paragraph 16.5(a) of the Hong Kong Code of Conduct for Persons Licensed by or Registered with the Securities and Futures Commission. As of 22 November 2012, KESHK and the authoring analyst do not have any interest in any companies recommended in this research report. MKE may have, within the last three years, served as manager or co-manager of a public offering of securities for, or currently may make a primary market in issues of, any or all of the entities mentioned in this report or may be providing, or have provided within the previous 12 months, significant advice or investment services in relation to the investment concerned or a related investment and may receive compensation for the services provided from the companies covered in this report.
OTHERS
Analyst Certification of Independence The views expressed in this research report accurately reflect the analysts personal views about any and all of the subject securities or issuers; and no part of the research analysts compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in the report. Reminder Structured securities are complex instruments, typically involve a high degree of risk and are intended for sale only to sophisticated investors who are capable of understanding and assuming the risks involved. The market value of any structured security may be affected by changes in economic, financial and political factors (including, but not limited to, spot and forward interest and exchange rates), time to maturity, market conditions and volatility and the credit quality of any issuer or reference issuer. Any investor interested in purchasing a structured product should conduct its own analysis of the product and consult with its own professional advisers as to the risks involved in making such a purchase. No part of this material may be copied, photocopied or duplicated in any form by any means or redistributed without the prior consent of MKE.
22 November 2012
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