Dynamic Mathematical Models of Human Work (Differential Equations of Human Labor)

PM World Today October 2010 (Vol XII, Issue X)
PM WORLD TODAY FEATURED PAPER OCTOBER 2010
Dynamic Mathematical Models of Human Work (Differential Equations of Human Labor)

By Pavel Barseghyan, PhD Abstract Dynamism and randomness are the integral attributes of any human activity. Accordingly, these attributes should be natural components of the quantitative description of human labor and control of it. A special form of the control of human labor is the management of projects and programs, adequate quantitative representation of which becomes a problem of paramount importance in connection with the huge losses of the industry, related to the massive failures of projects. The percentage of such failures is particularly high for relatively large and complex projects, which is especially painful from the financial point of view. From the experience of mature quantitative sciences it is well known that the ideal forms of quantitative description of dynamic objects are the differential and integral equations. Therefore, the most complete quantitative description of human activity, including project type of activities, can be achieved by describing them with the aim of differential and integral equations. In addition, the random nature of human activities imposes additional requirements on the methods of quantitative representation of human actions. Accounting of these requirements for mathematical modeling of human labor usually leads to the use of the apparatus of stochastic differential equations. In turn, these stochastic equations are the basis for the new differential equations with respect to the distribution functions of the parameters of the systems under study. For instance, in the case of project management it can be a differential equation with respect to the distribution function of the completion time of a project. This article is devoted to the derivation and analysis of the new differential equations for describing the simplest forms of human activities, as well as to the diffusion type of generalizations of these equations. Key words: Differential equation of the simple human work, diffusion models of human work, diffusion models and quantitative risk analysis, human productivity models, milestone and time dependent productivity models, error flows. Introduction:
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History of quantitative science teaches that the best way to represent the dynamics of processes and phenomena in space and time is their representation with the aid of differential and integral equations. Without exception, all the ramifications of the recognized modern quantitative sciences that have reached a high level of development, as a rule have very similar paths of development. Those are the paths from simple intuitive mathematical models to dynamic models, built with the help of differential and integral equations. These were the paths of development of classical mechanics, hydrodynamics, electromagnetic theory, the theory of gravitation, and many others. It should be noted that the highest level of development is indicated in the areas of science, where the apparatus of differential and integral equations are combined with probabilistic methods of the representation of the main parameters of the systems under study. An example of such a quantitative science is statistical communication theory, which successfully combines the dynamic and probabilistic models of processes and phenomena. In this sense, the area of project management is no exception and the quantitative project management of the future can be presented as an area of knowledge, where various differential and integral equations and probabilistic methods of representation of the processes and phenomena will play a dominant role. Since the project and program management is of utmost importance to the industry, therefore primitive, contradictory and inefficient methods of modern quantitative project management will disappear from the arena, giving place to more effective new techniques. The absence of these quantitative techniques in modern project management is a sign that this area of knowledge is still at a primitive empirical level of development. But this state of affairs cannot be last long, since within the framework of primitive empiricism cannot be found the solutions of the problems and challenges facing the area of project and program management. This in turn means that soon in the quantitative project management are expected changes of a fundamental nature, because only by the reason of massive failure of projects industry is suffering huge losses. It is also clear that a substantial portion of these enormous losses are conditioned by imperfections of modern methods of quantitative project management. This paper proposes a differential equation that describes the simplest forms of human labor. Generalization of this model in the form of a diffusion equation allows a joint analysis of the dynamics of human labor and related probabilistic risk parameters within the framework of a single mathematical model. Problems of the quantitative description of the dynamics of human labor The work performed by human beings, has a variety of manifestations, starting from unskilled
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simplest physical labor to the creative labor that requires great knowledge and skills. The main requirement to be satisfied by the quantitative methods for describing human labor, ideally, is that these methods should be generic in nature and be able to quantitatively describe each particular manifestation of human labor as a specific case. This means that the same equations that describe the process of human labor must be able to present adequately both simple and easy human work and complex human work in all its manifestations. To have such possibilities and properties, the equations of human labor must be able to reflect the two main aspects of the work of people - its dynamism and random nature. Human labor is a process where its parameters are the functions of time and for the adequate presentation of them we need to deal with dynamic mathematical models. In addition, the same parameters of human labor are probabilistic quantities which mean that they have random components, which for simple forms of human labor are not so important but for complex human labor these random components are very important, sometimes being even critical. It is also important to be able to describe various aspects of human labor, including its complexity, effort, duration and associated risks within the framework of the same modeling philosophy. This will allow having a quantitative description of the process of human labor, which is free from internal contradictions. Experience of classical quantitative sciences has shown that such requirements to the modeling of various processes and phenomena can be satisfied by the differential and integral equations, whose parameters have probabilistic nature and corresponding distributions. Applications of mathematical control theory in project management Direct application of classical control theory to the problems of project management is a promising step towards a true quantitative theory of project management. This approach enables describing in great details complex parallel-consecutive project works, including all sorts of feedbacks. Conceptually, this allows us to increase the capacity of the modeling methodology in project management, taking into account the details of accompanying processes. However, the addition of each new detail in the model requires the addition of new coefficients in the corresponding equations. Determination of the numerical values of these coefficients is usually confronted with greater difficulties in measurement and therefore calibration of equations with a large number of coefficients is almost impossible. Therefore, a detailed description of the dynamic processes of project management using the mathematical apparatus of the classical control theory is a very unreliable undertaking.
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But since there is a need of quantitative description of the dynamics of design processes, the problem reduces to the construction of such dynamic models of human work which have a minimum number of coefficients. In addition, the equations of dynamics of human work should be drafted in such a way that the coefficients can be determined by an expert way because the direct experimentation in this area is impossible. Besides, it should be noted that the availability of an excellent mathematical apparatus of the classical control theory does not give us the right to go directly to the description of complex processes of project management, since it must first gain experience by studying the relatively simple dynamic processes of human labor. Differential equation of homogeneous work Lets begin consideration of the problem with the simpliest case, when we have one person that performs homogeneous work with a time-dependent productivity P(t ) (Fig.1). Productivity P(t )
W
t t + t Fig.1 Human productivity as a function of time Time, t
According to the state equation of human labor [1] always takes place the following balance expression P *t * N = W . (1)
Here W - is the total amount of work, t - is the duration of work, N - is the number of working people, P - is the aggregate group productivity of N people. Since for our particular case N = 1 then the state equation will have the form P *t = W (2)
In order to take into account the variability of human productivity over time lets write down the balance equation for small time interval t (Fig.1) P (t ) * t = W (3)
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From here one can obtain W = P (t ) t (4)
For the limit case from expression (4) one can obtain the simplest differential equation of a single human labor in the following form dW = P (t ) . dt (5)
This equation can be given a mechanical interpretation in the sense that the amount of work W (t ) can be considered analogous to the path S (t ) traversed by the body in the mechanics and the productivity P (t ) can be considered analogous to the variable speed V (t ) of the body. dS = V (t ) . dt (6)
That is, as in the mechanics the derivative of the path S (t ) traversed by the body over time is the speed V (t ) of the body, and the derivative of the work W (t ) performed by a person with respect to time is the productivity P (t ) . To obtain the complete solution of the equation (5) it is necessary to impose an initial condition. For this one can say that W = 0 when t = 0 or W (0) = 0 . Accordingly the solution to equation (5) is W (t ) = P ( )d
0 t
(6)
Example1. Work with constant productivity P(t ) = P0 . Substituting this value of productivity into the integral (6) one can obtain the following linear relationship between the amount of work and work duration W (t ) = P0 * t (7)
This simple solution describes the work done by a person as a linear accumulation process. It adequately represents human activity in the performance of homogeneous and easy work. The diffusion differential equation of the homogeneous human labor
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In the equations written above, it is assumed that the human productivity is a deterministic value, but in reality this is not the case and this circumstance becomes central in determining the probability distribution of the duration of work. In reality, the productivity of a person is a stochastic process, which depends on the mood of people, the state of their health, the difficulties of work, cultural traditions and many other factors.
Fig.2 Labor productivity of a person as a stochastic process Thus, it is assumed, that a person has an average productivity P0 , around which oscillates the real productivity value as a random process (t ) (Fig.2). This random process is characterized by the distribution density function (P ) . In such a situation for a quantitative description of the work process of people it is convenient to use the diffusion model, which reduces to the following equation. W 2W , = P0 + D t P 2 (9)
Here D is the diffusion coefficient of human productivity which shows the degree of dispersion of its random values. The solution of this equation under appropriate boundary conditionsis is a time-dependent floating distribution, which forms a surface F (W , t ) along with the line W (t ) = P0t . The intersection of this surface F (W , t ) with the plane W = W1 represents itself the distribution function F (W1 , t ) , and the intersection of the same surface with the plane t = t1 represents the distribution F (W , t1 ) (Fig.3). Here F (W1 , t ) is the distribution density function of the completion time for the amount of work W1 . Accordingly F (W , t1 ) is the distribution density function of the work done at the moment of time t = t1 .
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Fig.3 Amount of work as a probabilistic function of time In the more general case, the nature of the diffusion of human productivity depends on the time, the average productivity P0 , the complexity of work and other factors. Therefore, in general, the differential equation of human work will look like W W = P0 + ( D( P0 , t , W ,...) ) t P P (10)
With various initial and boundary conditions the above productivity diffusion equations (9) and (10) are able to cover infinite number of practical situations with corresponding analytical and numerical solutions. Work intensity and work productivity. The intensity of work and its productivity are completely different things. Words as always we are very busy often have no relation and connection with productive work, because intense work doesnt mean productive work. Besides the infirm of purpose intensive work cannot be productive. The understanding of this statement is very important for the analysis of human productivity in the course of project works, because usually productivity increases markedly in the last stages of
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work. It is the main difference between the works near and far from the milestones of work. In fact, as we approach the milestones of work through the mobilization of the inner resources of people the purposefulness of their actions increases, thus the work of the same intensity becomes more productive. In addition, taking into account that near to milestones the intensity of work tends to increase too, it becomes clear that human productivity can be controlled, especially near to the milestones of work. Functional relationship between the intensity of work and its productivity The main reason for the difference between the intensity of performance and productivity are the errors made in the course of work. If the intensity of performance is the amount of work per unit time, including errors, the productivity has the same meaning, but with a bug fix. Thus, the intensity of errors can be defined as a (t ) = I (t ) P (t ) . The percentage of the made errors can be defined as (11)
a% (t ) =
I (t ) P (t ) . I (t )
(12)
It is necessary to spend extra time and effort on the detection and correction of errors which leads to the formation of the final human productivity P(t ) . Therefore the quantitative research of human productivity is largely reduced to discussion of the problems of error dynamics in the course of work. The dynamics of errors and their random nature For simplicity, we consider the usual work of one person, during which errors are committed and corrected. It is clear that errors are made at random times and their detection and correction have a random nature too. For quantitative analysis of these processes mentioned above there are possible different approaches. The simplest and most obvious of them is the deterministic approach which deals with the average values of the parameters of the studied processes. If the average number of errors per unit time is a and the average time needed for the detection and removal of one error is t a , then for the same purpose for the errors made per unit time the needed additional time is t a a .
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This means that for the detection and elimination of errors generated during an arbitrary time period t , the additional required time is t a a (t )t . This in turn means that for the completion of the complexity W without error the required total time is determined by the formula t a = t + t a at = t (1 + t a a ) . This means that the productivity P can be defined as P= W W = . t a t (1 + t a a) (14) (13)
W = I , then from (14) one can obtain the following functional relationship t between the intensity of work I and work productivity P . Since the ratio P= I . 1 + ta a (15)
In the ideal case, when there are no errors we have a = 0 and therefore P = I , i.e. the intensity of performance and human productivity are the same. This simplified quantitative approach, outlined above, gives a clear average picture of the impact of errors on the human productivity. But this approach has limitations and does not allow analyzing the risks associated with work performance. This requires consideration of other approaches, which take into account both the probabilistic characteristics of individual errors, and the random nature of the error flow. Probabilistic dynamics of the number of errors in the process of human labor The process of human labor is accompanied by the inevitable errors that are born at random times and have a random severity. In other words, the sequence of errors is a flow of random events along with time axis. For the quantitative representation of the flow of errors assume that this is a simplest flow of events with intensity a . This means that the total number of errors within the time interval [ 0, t ] will obey the Poisson distribution. According to this distribution, the probability Qm (t ) that during the time interval [ 0, t ] will happen exactly m events will be determined by the following formula [2]. (at ) m at (16) Qm (t ) = e . m!
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This means that the probability of emergence of an error in the small time interval t is defined as Qb = at . (17) In the same interval the probability of no emergence of a new error will be Qnb = 1 Qb = 1 at . (18)
In addition, a simplest flow of errors means that the probability of simultaneous occurrence of two or more errors in the small time interval t is much less than the probability of the occurrence of one error. Errors are different from each other by their degree of severity s , requiring for their detection and removal different efforts or different amounts of work. Analysis shows that these quantities have a random nature too and can be described by the distribution density function f (s) . Characteristic parameters of the flows of errors In the arsenal of modern theory of probability there are many methods that can be applied to the study of the quantitative parameters of human errors. For example, for the purposes of quantitative analysis of the flows of human errors can be successfully applied the renewal theory, which has numerous other applications in physics, reliability theory and other fields of knowledge [3]. Lets denote by t the random variable representing the number of errors, born in the interval [ 0, t ]. Then we denote by Fn (t ) the probability that in the interval [ 0, t ] will occur at least n errors Fn (t ) = P{t n} . (19) The average number of errors H (t ) = m1 (t ) in the interval [ 0, t ] is an important characteristic of the flow of errors. The average number of errors in the time interval [ t1 , t 2 ] can be defined as m1{t2 t1 } = H (t 2 ) H (t1 ) . (20)
From the other hand, according to the definition of a discrete random variable, its average is given by the formula
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H (t ) = nP{t = n} .
n=0
(21)
Using this relation [3], it can be proved that H (t ) = Fn (t ) .

n=0
(22)
Functional relationship between human productivity and planned duration of work The prospect of control of the results of human work increases the level of responsibility of people, which in turn increases the productivity of their work. This suggests that the correct planning of human work (the number and time of milestones) and monitoring the performance of people may affect their productivity significantly. It is a known fact, that for various reasons, an increase is taking place in the productivity of human work before each responsible milestone of their work. Moreover, the closer this check, the intensity of work and dedication of human actions are increasing in the form of overtime work [4]. The reason for this is that regardless of effort expended and the intensity of work, in the initial stages of work the productivity of people is low. Later, in the course of adaptation to work and going into its details, the productivity of people is gradually increasing. Comparing the results of the different project groups shows that their productivity may vary in a wide range, even if the members of these groups have roughly the same professional qualities. This suggests that organizational factors have a huge impact on the productivity of the team. This in turn demonstrates the importance of modeling the organizational aspects of the project teams. The analysis shows that for the modeling of productivity growth, it can be used one of the recognized mathematical models of growth. Based on various considerations, for this purpose can be used logistic differential equation, which has numerous applications in biology, demography and other fields [5]. Logistic model of human productivity growth dP is dt proportional to its current value P(t ) and the difference Pm P (t ) , where Pm represents the maximum value of productivity. In the basis of this model lays the hypothesis that the growth rate of productivity
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Productivity P(t )
1 1 8 2 0
Pm
P0
4 2
0 Time,
Fig.4. Human productivity growth model Under these assumptions the differential equation of the growth of human productivity will be as follows [6]. dP A = P (t )[ Pm P(t )] . dt Pm Here A is a constant. The solution of this equation with the initial condition P (0) = P0 has the form P (t ) = P0 Pm P0 + ( Pm P0 )e At (12) (11)
This functional relationship is presented in Fig.4. Milestone dependent logistic model of human productivity growth The above human productivity growth model doesnt take into account the planned duration or planned milestones of work. In order to do that there is a need to develop a milestone dependent model for the upper limit of human productivity Pm .
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Fig.5 Milestone dependent human productivity growth model This model has the following form
Pm =
bt (T t )
(13)
In this expression it is assumed that as we approach the milestone point T , due to internal mobilization of the individual the upper limit of the human productivity increases linearly. But in the immediate vicinity of the milestone point, this growth becomes nonlinear due to the denominator (T t ) , where is a constant. Substituting expression (13) into the equation (11) one can have a new differential equation for the description of human productivity growth process in the vicinity of milestone point. dP A(T t ) bt = P (t )[ P (t )] dt bt (T t ) (14)
For the same initial condition P (0) = P0 a typical solution of this equation is presented in Fig.5. Probabilistic analogue of the logistic growth law
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Lets present one useful result, which is important for further constructing of a combined mathematical model of the dynamics of project works and related risks. This result concerns probabilistic analogue of logistic growth law, built by Feller in 1939 [7]. According to this result the logistic growth process can be represented as a continuous Markov process on the basis of which can be obtained the corresponding Fokker-Planck equation. This equation describes the density function of the main parameter under study as a function of time. In our case of equation (11) of the logistic growth of productivity, Fokker-Planck equation for the density distribution function f ( P, t ) of productivity P at the time t is the following.
f ( P, t ) 1 2 [ Pf ( P, t )] [(P P 2 ) f ( P, t )] = t 2 P 2 P
Here , and are constant coefficients. Conclusions 1. The best form of quantitative description of human labor is its representation by means of differential and integral equations. 2. This is explained by the fact that fundamentally human activities are profoundly dynamic, and the history of science clearly shows that adequate representation of dynamic processes is possible only with the aid of differential and integral equations. 3. Such a representation allows reducing quantitative studies related to the planning and execution of human labor to the well developed boundary value problems. 4. In addition, adequate quantitative representation of human work requires considering the random nature of this process. 5. This consideration can be carried out in several ways, which are connected with the presentation of the process of human work as a diffusion process in the form of stochastic differential equations. 6. In this sense, the applications of the Fokker-Planck equation are very promising for describing the process of human labor, because the solutions of this equation are the distribution density functions of the parameters of the process of work. 7. This approach to quantitative description of human labor allows considering the problems related to planning and risk analysis of human labor in the framework of the same modeling philosophy.
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8. Like any other stochastic process of growth, the process of growth of human productivity can be represented as a Markov process and as a consequence can be obtain the corresponding Fokker-Planck equation. 9. Detailed description of the dynamic processes of project management using the mathematical apparatus of the classical control theory is a very unreliable undertaking. 10. The reason for this is that these detailed descriptions require a large number of coefficients for corresponding equations. 11. Determination of the numerical values of these coefficients is usually confronted with greater difficulties in measurement and therefore calibration of equations with a large number of coefficients is almost impossible. References 1. Pavel Barseghyan. (2009). Principles of Top-Down Quantitative Analysis of Projects. Part 1: State Equation of Projects and Project Change Analysis. PM World Today May 2009 (Vol XI, Issue V). 2. Poisson distribution. Wikipedia. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Poisson_distribution 3. Renewal Theory. Wikipedia. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Renewal_theory 4. Pavel Barseghyan (2010) Parkinsons Law, Overtime Work and Human Productivity. PM World Today February 2010 (Vol XII, Issue II). 5. Logistic function. Wikipedia. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Logistic_function 6. Banks R. B. Growth and Diffusion Phenomena. Mathematical frameworks and applications. Springer-Verlag. 1994. 7. Bharucha-Reid A. T. Elements of the Theory of Markov Processes and Their Applications. 1960. MC GROW-HILL.
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About the Author
Pavel Barseghyan, PhD

Author
Dr. Pavel Barseghyan is a consultant in the field of quantitative project management, project data mining and organizational science. He is the founder of Systemic PM, LLC, a project management company. Has over 40 years experience in academia, the electronics industry, the EDA industry and Project Management Research and tools development. During the period of 1999-2010 he was the Vice President of Research for Numetrics Management Systems. Prior to joining Numetrics, Dr. Barseghyan worked as an R&D manager at Infinite Technology Corp. in Texas. He was also a founder and the president of an EDA start-up company, DAN Technologies, Ltd. that focused on high-level chip design planning and RTL structural floor planning technologies. Before joining ITC, Dr. Barseghyan was head of the Electronic Design and CAD department at the State Engineering University of Armenia, focusing on development of the Theory of Massively Interconnected Systems and its applications to electronic design. During the period of 1975-1990, he was also a member of the University Educational Policy Commission for Electronic Design and CAD Direction in the Higher Education Ministry of the former USSR. Earlier in his career he was a senior researcher in Yerevan Research and Development Institute of Mathematical Machines (Armenia). He is an author of nine monographs and textbooks and more than 100 scientific articles in the area of quantitative project management, mathematical theory of human work, electronic design and EDA methodologies, and tools development. More than 10 Ph.D. degrees have been awarded under his supervision. Dr. Barseghyan holds an MS in Electrical Engineering (1967) and Ph.D. (1972) and Doctor of Technical Sciences (1990) in Computer Engineering from Yerevan Polytechnic Institute (Armenia). Pavel can be contacted at pavel@systemicpm.com.
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PM World Today October 2010 (Vol XII, Issue X)

PM WORLD TODAY FEATURED PAPER OCTOBER 2010