anul

1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008

1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1

pub

pib

isd

rs

ri

di

33.7
38.6
40.9
43.5
45.2
49.4
54.8
64.6
68.9
70.3
75.2
78.4
79.7
82.5
86.9

34.8
38.9
45.3
54.9
55.5
60.3
64.7
72.1
90.4
100.4
111.6
130.7
180.5
200.7
256.8

283
295
329
354
395
428
497
515
599
621
654
668
684
702
714

10.8
9.4
8.4
9.3
11.5
10.6
9.8
8.8
7.1
6.6
6.8
7
6.3
6.5
6.9

97.9
94.3
116.8
151.4
91.6
54.3
40.4
34.6
27.2
21.3
17.8
10.5
9.3
8.6
6.5

0
0
0
0
0
0
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1

SUMMARY OUTPUT
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.995483
R Square 0.990987
Adjusted R Square
0.987382
Standard Error
2.020268
Observations
15

2.160369

ANOVA
df

SS
MS
4 4487.761 1121.94
10 40.81482 4.081482
14 4528.576

F
274.8855137

Coefficients
Standard Error t Stat
Intercept
18.63063 11.51068 1.618551
X Variable 1 0.036713 0.016329 2.248367
X Variable 2 0.088972 0.014124 6.299301
X Variable 3 -0.79534 0.581277 -1.36826
X Variable 4 -0.0131 0.030889 -0.42406

P-value
0.136613855
0.048313387
8.91648E-05
0.201186213
0.680497523

Regression
Residual
Total

RESIDUAL OUTPUT
ObservationPredicted Y Residuals

Significance F
3.54126E-10

Lower 95%
Upper 95%
-7.016782681 44.27803
0.000330297 0.073097
0.057501205 0.120442
-2.090503245 0.49983
-0.081922555 0.055725

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15

35.2152
37.59401
41.35462
42.76234
45.46576
49.78243
56.90134
59.64582
69.24029
72.03974
75.27377
77.15716
80.98149
83.17469
86.01134

-1.5152
1.005993
-0.45462
0.737658
-0.26576
-0.38243
-2.10134
4.95418
-0.34029
-1.73974
-0.07377
1.242845
-1.28149
-0.67469
0.888656

6.3564
2.133394
1.421531
1.006852
0.013611
2.954666
49.78042
28.03137
1.958484
2.77546
1.733484
6.372241
0.368205
2.44404
107.3502
dw

2.295823696
1.012021143
0.206680704
0.544139593
0.070629432
0.146252632
4.415647569
24.54389878
0.115794607
3.026711321
0.005442539
1.544662857
1.64220439
0.45520207
0.789709343
40.81482068

6
5
4
3
2
1
0
-1
-2
-3

2.630175928

SUMMARY OUTPUT
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.995677
R Square 0.991374
Adjusted R Square
0.986581
Standard Error
2.083408
Observations
15
ANOVA
df
Regression
Residual
Total

SS
MS
F
5 4489.511 897.9021 206.8618
9 39.0653 4.340589
14 4528.576

Coefficients
Standard Error t Stat
Intercept
18.09353 11.90054 1.520396
X Variable 1 0.041973 0.018767 2.23655
X Variable 2 0.084297 0.016321 5.164955
X Variable 3 -0.69801 0.618738 -1.12811
X Variable 4 -0.0053 0.034139 -0.15531
X Variable 5 2.000917 3.151692 0.634871

P-value
0.162734
0.052136
0.000591
0.288446
0.880001
0.541314

Significance F
5.26573E-09

Lower 95%
-8.827381876
-0.000480603
0.047376244
-2.097689348
-0.082530221
-5.128709776

Upper 95%
Lower 95,0%
45.01444358 -8.82738
0.084427038 -0.00048
0.121217184 0.047376
0.701675883 -2.09769
0.071925654 -0.08253
9.13054452 -5.12871

RESIDUAL OUTPUT
ObservationPredicted Y Residuals
1 35.3526
-1.6526
2 37.53255 1.067449
3 41.24597 -0.34597
4 42.94467 0.555331
5 45.20748 -0.00748
6 49.01672 0.383276
7 57.6509
-2.8509
8 60.20761 4.392393
9 69.28249 -0.38249
10 71.93704 -1.63704
11 75.06788 0.132116
12 76.94883 1.451168
13 80.88281 -1.18281
14 83.11212 -0.61212
15 86.21031 0.689687

7.398681
1.997762
0.812349
0.316756
0.15269
10.45992
52.46536
22.7995
1.573887
3.129898
1.739899
6.937857
0.325687
1.694709
111.805
dw

2.731096
1.139447
0.119698
0.308393
5.59E-05
0.1469
8.127654
19.29312
0.146298
2.679886
0.017455
2.105889
1.399046
0.374694
0.475668
39.0653
2.862002

Lower 95,0%
Upper 95,0%
-7.01678 44.27803
0.00033 0.073097
0.057501 0.120442
-2.0905 0.49983
-0.08192 0.055725

6
5
4
3
2
1
0
-1

-2
-3

2.160369

Upper 95,0%
45.01444
0.084427
0.121217
0.701676
0.071926
9.130545

10

11

12

13

14

15

5
4
3
2
1
0
-1
-2
-3
-4

10

11

12

13

14

14

15

anul
94
95
96
97
98
99
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8

pub y

pib x

33.70
38.60
40.90
43.60
45.20
49.40
54.80
64.60
68.90
70.30
75.20
78.40
79.70
82.50
86.90

34.80
38.90
45.30
54.90
55.50
60.30
64.70
72.10
90.40
100.40
111.60
130.70
180.50
200.70
256.80

SUMMARY OUTPUT

anul

yt-ro *yt-1 x-ro*xt-1

94 10.31982 9.696724
95

8.50786 12.65611

96 9.277759 16.88539
97 8.611987 9.429314
98 11.46931 13.72581
99 13.34477 14.09777
0 18.61323

17.8054

1 14.68932 29.89551
2 12.48087 24.53862
3 16.20603 27.34687
4 15.29407 37.04811
5 13.90871 70.81988
6 15.61778 49.22898
7

17.6681 88.37766

ro

0.839175

Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.883384
R Square 0.780367
Adjusted R Square
0.763473
Standard Error
8.743626
Observations
15
ANOVA
df
Regression
Residual
Total

SS
MS
F
Significance F
1 3531.254 3531.254 46.18977 1.27E-05
13 993.863
76.451
14 4525.117

Coefficients
Standard Error t Stat
Intercept
36.81847 4.194799 8.777172
X Variable 1 0.240667 0.035411 6.796306

P-value Lower 95%Upper 95%Lower 95.0%

Upper 95.0%
7.99E-07 27.75616 45.88079 27.75616 45.88079
1.27E-05 0.164165 0.317169 0.164165 0.317169

RESIDUAL OUTPUT
(et-et-1)^2 et^2
ObservationPredicted Y Residuals
1 45.19369 -11.4937
2 46.18042 -7.58042
3 47.72069 -6.82069
4 50.03109 -6.43109
5 50.17549 -4.97549

132.1048
15.31365 57.46277
0.577192 46.5218
0.151786 41.35895
2.118771 24.75552

6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15

51.33069
52.38963
54.17056
58.57477
60.98144
63.67691
68.27365
80.25887
85.12034
98.62176

DW
d1
d2

-1.93069
2.410371
10.42944
10.32523
9.31856
11.52309
10.12635
-0.55887
-2.62034
-11.7218

0.321651
1,077
1,361

9.270798
18.84485
64.30539
0.010859
1.013384
4.859951
1.950881
114.1738
4.249672
82.83581
319.6768

3.727579
5.80989
108.7731
106.6104
86.83556
132.7816
102.543
0.312331
6.866179
137.3996
993.863

Upper 95.0%

SUMMARY OUTPUT
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.574816
R Square 0.330414
Adjusted R Square
0.274615
Standard Error
2.809191
Observations
14
ANOVA
df
Regression
Residual
Total

SS
MS
F
Significance F
1 46.72998 46.72998 5.921516 0.031535
12 94.69868 7.891557
13 141.4287

Coefficients
Standard Error t Stat
P-value Lower 95%Upper 95%
Intercept
10.9104 1.231686 8.858101 1.31E-06 8.226786 13.59401
X Variable 1 0.078908 0.032427 2.433417 0.031535 0.008256 0.149561

RESIDUAL OUTPUT
(et-et-1)^2 et^2
ObservationPredicted Y
1 11.67555
2 11.90907
3 12.2428
4 11.65445
5 11.99348
6 12.02283

Residuals
-1.35574
-3.40121
-2.96504
-3.04246
-0.52417
1.321942

4.183972
0.190246
0.005994
6.341789
3.408143

1.838022
11.56825
8.791465
9.256591
0.274758
1.747531

7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14

12.3154
13.26941
12.8467
13.0683
13.83381
16.49869
14.79498
17.88414

6.297836
1.419913
-0.36583
3.137727
1.460262
-2.58997
0.822803
-0.21605

DW
d1
d2

24.75952
23.79413
3.188891
12.27494
2.813891
16.40441
11.64705
1.079208
110.0922
1.162552
1,045
1,35

39.66274
2.016154
0.133834
9.845332
2.132364
6.707966
0.677004
0.046676
94.69868

Lower 95.0%
Upper 95.0%
8.226786 13.59401
0.008256 0.149561

Graficul reziduurilor
15
10
5
0
1
-5
-10
-15

10

11

11

12

13

14

15

anul

pub

1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008

pib

33.7
38.6
40.9
43.5
45.2
49.4
54.8
64.6
68.9
70.3
75.2
78.4
79.7
82.5
86.9

isd

34.8
38.9
45.3
54.9
55.5
60.3
64.7
72.1
90.4
100.4
111.6
130.7
180.5
200.7
256.8

ri

283
295
329
354
395
428
497
515
599
621
654
668
684
702
714

97.9
94.3
116.8
151.4
91.6
54.3
40.4
34.6
27.2
21.3
17.8
10.5
9.3
8.6
6.5

SUMMARY OUTPUT
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.994636
R Square
0.9893
Adjusted R Square
0.986382
Standard Error
2.098828
Observations
15
ANOVA
df
Regression
Residual
Total

SS
MS
F
Significance F
3 4480.12 1493.373 339.0117 4.08E-11
11 48.45587 4.405079
14 4528.576

Coefficients
Standard Error t Stat
P-value Lower 95%Upper 95%Lower 95.0%
Upper 95.0%
Intercept
5.500297 6.603681 0.832914 0.422609 -9.03431 20.0349 -9.03431 20.0349
X Variable 1 0.036033 0.016956 2.125094 0.057063 -0.00129 0.073353 -0.00129 0.073353
X Variable 2 0.100257 0.011911 8.417022 4.02E-06 0.074041 0.126474 0.074041 0.126474
X Variable 3 0.000437 0.030399 0.014385 0.98878 -0.06647 0.067346 -0.06647 0.067346

RESIDUAL OUTPUT
ObservationPredicted Y Residuals
1 35.16984 -1.46984
2.160441
2 36.51909 2.080908 12.60784 4.330178
3 40.16829 0.731712 1.820329 0.535403
4 43.03577 0.464234 0.071545 0.215513

5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15

47.14178
50.60692
57.67713
59.74587
68.82364
71.38705
75.09758
77.18622
80.58427
83.11646
86.34009

DW

-1.94178
-1.20692
-2.87713
4.854133
0.076358
-1.08705
0.10242
1.213777
-0.88427
-0.61646
0.559906

2.395553
0,814
1,750

5.788903
0.540026
2.789611
59.7724
22.82713
1.353523
1.414843
1.235115
4.401792
0.07172
1.383842
116.0786

3.77051
1.456645
8.277867
23.56261
0.005831
1.181681
0.01049
1.473255
0.781929
0.380025
0.313495
48.45587

Upper 95.0%

Graficul reziduurilor
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
-1
-2

10

11

12

13

14

15

-2
-3
-4

anul

pub

pib

1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008

33.7
38.6
40.9
43.5
45.2
49.4
54.8
64.6
68.9
70.3
75.2
78.4
79.7
82.5
86.9

isd

34.8
38.9
45.3
54.9
55.5
60.3
64.7
72.1
90.4
100.4
111.6
130.7
180.5
200.7
256.8

ri

283
295
329
354
395
428
497
515
599
621
654
668
684
702
714

97.9
94.3
116.8
151.4
91.6
54.3
40.4
34.6
27.2
21.3
17.8
10.5
9.3
8.6
6.5

SUMMARY OUTPUT
Regression Statistics
Multiple R
0.9946356
R Square
0.989299976
Adjusted R Square
0.986381788
Standard Error 2.098828059
Observations
15
ANOVA
df
Regression
Residual
Total

Intercept
X Variable 1
X Variable 2
X Variable 3

anul

SS
MS
F
Significance F
3 4480.12 1493.373 339.0117 4.08E-11
11 48.45587 4.405079
14 4528.576

Coefficients Standard Error t Stat

P-value Lower 95%Upper 95%Lower 95.0%
Upper 95.0%
5.500296526 6.603681 0.832914 0.422609 -9.03431 20.0349 -9.03431 20.0349
0.036033227 0.016956 2.185094 0.057063 -0.00129 0.073353 -0.00129 0.073353
0.100257174 0.011911 8.417022 4.02E-06 0.074041 0.126474 0.074041 0.126474
0.000437292 0.030399 0.014385 0.98878 -0.06647 0.067346 -0.06647 0.067346

pub

1994
1995
1996
1997

pib

33.7
38.6
40.9
43.5

isd

34.8
38.9
45.3
54.9

ri

283
295
329
354

97.9
94.3
116.8
151.4

1998
1999
2000

45.2
49.4
54.8

55.5
60.3
64.7

395
428
497

91.6
54.3
40.4

SUMMARY OUTPUT
Regression Statistics
Multiple R
0.99232951
R Square
0.984717857
Adjusted R Square0.97325625
Standard Error 1.226480643
Observations
8
ANOVA
df
Regression
Residual
Total

SS
MS
F
Significance F
3 387.7117 129.2372 85.91447 0.000436
4 6.017019 1.504255
7 393.7288

Coefficients
Intercept
61.48660321
X Variable 1
0.053561576
X Variable 2
0.018461239
X Variable 3
-0.308019356

2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008

64.6
68.9
70.3
75.2
78.4
79.7
82.5
86.9

SUMMARY OUTPUT
Regression Statistics
Multiple R
0.99232951
R Square
0.984717857

Standard Error
t Stat
25.22811 2.437226
0.014327 3.738415
0.033597 0.549488
0.22446 -1.37227

72.1
90.4
100.4
111.6
130.7
180.5
200.7
256.8

515
599
621
654
668
684
702
714

P-value
Lower 95%Upper 95%Lower 95.0%
Upper 95.0%
0.071422 -8.55785 131.5311 -8.55785 131.5311
0.020149 0.013782 0.093341 0.013782 0.093341
0.611907 -0.07482 0.111742 -0.07482 0.111742
0.241901 -0.93122 0.31518 -0.93122 0.31518

34.6
27.2
21.3
17.8
10.5
9.3
8.6
6.5

Adjusted R Square0.97325625
Standard Error 1.226480643
Observations
8
ANOVA
df
Regression
Residual
Total

Intercept
X Variable 1
X Variable 2
X Variable 3

R^2 barat

F*
F

SS
MS
F
Significance F
3 387.7117 129.2372 85.91447 0.000436
4 6.017019 1.504255
7 393.7288

Coefficients Standard Error t Stat

61.48660321 25.22811 2.437226
0.053561576 0.014327 3.738415
0.018461239 0.033597 0.549488
-0.308019356 0.22446 -1.37227

0.972

3.458934719
4.120311727

P-value Lower 95%Upper 95%Lower 95.0%

Upper 95.0%
0.071422 -8.55785 131.5311 -8.55785 131.5311
0.020149 0.013782 0.093341 0.013782 0.093341
0.611907 -0.07482 0.111742 -0.07482 0.111742
0.241901 -0.93122 0.31518 -0.93122 0.31518

Upper 95.0%

f*

339.0117

f finv

4.667193

Upper 95.0%

Upper 95.0%

anul

pub

1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008

pib

33.7
38.6
40.9
43.5
45.2
49.4
54.8
64.6
68.9
70.3
75.2
78.4
79.7
82.5
86.9

isd

34.8
38.9
45.3
54.9
55.5
60.3
64.7
72.1
90.4
100.4
111.6
130.7
180.5
200.7
256.8

di

283
295
329
354
395
428
497
515
599
621
654
668
684
702
714

0
0
0
0
0
0
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1

SUMMARY OUTPUT
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.995023
R Square 0.990071
Adjusted R Square
0.987363
Standard Error
2.021785
Observations
15
ANOVA
df
Regression
Residual
Total

SS
MS
F
Significance F
3 4483.612 1494.537 365.6258
2.7E-11
11 44.96376 4.087615
14 4528.576

Coefficients
Standard Error t Stat
P-value Lower 95%Upper 95%Lower 95.0%
Upper 95.0%
Intercept
8.616629
3.9843 2.162646 0.053457 -0.15276 17.38601 -0.15276 17.38601
X Variable 1 0.044276 0.018059 2.451744 0.032146 0.004528 0.084023 0.004528 0.084023
X Variable 2 0.089623 0.013121 6.830636 2.84E-05 0.060744 0.118501 0.060744 0.118501
X Variable 3 2.615929 2.82983 0.924412 0.375106 -3.61249 8.844343 -3.61249 8.844343

Graficul reziduurilor
RESIDUAL OUTPUT
5
ObservationPredicted Y Residuals
4
1 35.52063 -1.82063
3.314682
3
2 36.77763 1.822371 13.27143 3.321037
2
3 40.10816 0.791837
1.062 0.627006
1

4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15

42.77378
46.47487
49.64494
58.63964
60.58049
68.91904
71.33349
74.78693
76.88731
80.5262
83.03378
86.59312

0.726225
-1.27487
-0.24494
-3.83964
4.019511
-0.01904
-1.03349
0.413075
1.512691
-0.8262
-0.53378
0.306876

dw

0.004305
4.004372
1.060756
12.92189
61.76627
16.30986
1.029119
2.09255
1.209156
5.47043
0.085511
0.706706
120.9944
2.69093
0,814
1,750

1
0.527402
0
1.625289
0.059995
-1
14.74284
-2
16.15647
-3
0.000362
-4
1.068103
-5
0.170631
2.288233
0.682613
0.284923
0.094173
44.96376

Upper 95.0%

aficul reziduurilor

10

11

12

13

14

15

anul

pub

1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008

pib

33.7
38.6
40.9
43.5
45.2
49.4
54.8
64.6
68.9
70.3
75.2
78.4
79.7
82.5
86.9

isd

34.8
38.9
45.3
54.9
55.5
60.3
64.7
72.1
90.4
100.4
111.6
130.7
180.5
200.7
256.8

di

283
295
329
354
395
428
497
515
599
621
654
668
684
702
714

0
0
0
0
0
0
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1

2.593093
SUMMARY OUTPUT
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.995023
R Square 0.990071
Adjusted R Square
0.987363
Standard Error
2.021785
Observations
15
ANOVA
df
Regression
Residual
Total

SS
MS
F
Significance F
3 4483.612 1494.537 365.6258
2.7E-11
11 44.96376 4.087615
14 4528.576

Coefficients
Standard Error t Stat
P-value Lower 95%Upper 95%Lower 95.0%
Upper 95.0%
Intercept
8.616629
3.9843 2.162646 0.053457 -0.15276 17.38601 -0.15276 17.38601
X Variable 1 0.044276 0.018059 2.451744 0.032146 0.004528 0.084023 0.004528 0.084023
X Variable 2 0.089623 0.013121 6.830636 2.84E-05 0.060744 0.118501 0.060744 0.118501
X Variable 3 2.615929 2.82983 0.924412 0.375106 -3.61249 8.844343 -3.61249 8.844343

Upper 95.0%