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org/wiki/Standard_deviation

Standard deviation

From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

This page may be too technical for a general

audience. Please help improve the page by

providing more context and better explanations of

technical details, even for su bjects that are

inherently technical.

Standard deviation is the measu rement of the distribu tion of data abou t a

mean valu e. It describes the dispersion of data on either side of a mean

valu e. A low standard deviation indicat es that the data set is clu stered

arou nd the mean valu e, whereas a high standard deviation indicates that the

data is widely spread with significantly higher/lower figu res than the mean.

T he mean is the arithmetic average.

[1]

Formu lated by Francis Galton in the late 1860s, the standard deviation

remains the most common measu re of statistical dispersion, measu ring how

widely spread the valu es in a data set are. If many data points are close to

the mean, then the standard deviation is small; if many data points are far

from the mean, then the standard deviation is large. If all data valu es are

equ al, then the standard deviation is zero. A u sefu l property of standard

deviation is that, u nlike variance, it is expressed in the same u nits as the

data.

When only a sample of data from a popu lation is available, the popu lation

standard deviation can be estimated by a modified standard deviation of the

sample, explained below.

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Contents

1 Definition and calcu lation

1.1 Probability distribu tion or

random variable

1.2 Continu ou s random variable

1.3 Discrete random variable or data

set

1.3.1 Example

1.3.2 Simplification of the A data set with a mean of 50

formu la (shown in blue) and a standard

1.4 Estimating popu lation standard deviation (σ) of 20.

deviation from sample standard

deviation

1.5 Properties of st andard deviation

2 Interpretation and application

2.1 Application examples

2.1.1 Weather

2.1.2 Sports

2.1.3 Finance

2.2 Geometric interpretation

2.3 Chebyshev's inequ ality

2.4 Ru les for normally distribu ted

data

3 Relationship between standard

deviation and mean

4 Rapid calcu lation methods

5 See also

6 References

7 External links

Probability distribution or random variable

that of a random variable having that distribu tion.

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where E(X) is the expected valu e of X. E(X) is another name for the mean,

and it is often indicated with the Greek letter μ.

Not all random variables have a standard deviation, since these expected

valu es need not exist. For example, the standard deviation of a random

variable which follows a Cau chy distribu tion is u ndefined becau se its E(X) is

u ndefined.

Continu ou s distribu tions u su ally give a formu la for calcu lating the standard

deviation as a fu nct ion of the parameters of the distribu tion. In general, the

standard deviation of a continu ou s real-valu ed random variable X with

probability density fu nction p(x) is

where

and where the integrals are definite integrals taken for x ranging over the

range of X.

(RMS) deviation of its valu es from the mean.

nu mbers) with equ al probability, then its standard deviat ion σ can be

calcu lated as follows:

2. For each valu e xi calcu late its deviat ion ( ) from the mean.

3. Calcu late the squ ares of these deviat ions.

2

4. Find the mean of the squ ared deviations. T his qu antity is t he variance σ .

5. T ake the squ are root of the variance.

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If not all valu es have equ al probability, bu t the probability of valu e xi equ als

pi, the standard deviation can be compu ted by:

and

where

variable that can assu me precisely the valu es from the data set, where the

point mass for each valu e is proportional to its mu ltiplicity in the data set.

Example

Su ppose we wished to find the standard deviation of the data set consisting

of the valu es 3, 7, 7, and 19.

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Step 3: squ are each of the deviations, which amplifies large deviations and

makes negative valu es positive,

Step 5: take the non-negative squ are root of the qu otient (converting

squ ared u nits back to regu lar u nits),

So, the standard deviation of the set is 6. T his example also shows that, in

general, the standard deviation is different from the mean absolu te deviation

(which is 5 in this example).

Note that if the above data set represented only a sample from a greater

popu lation, a modified standard deviat ion wou ld be calcu lated (explained

below) to estimate the popu lation standard deviation, which wou ld give 6.93

for this example.

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standard deviation

In the real world, finding the standard deviation of an ent ire popu lation is

u nrealistic except in certain cases, su ch as standardized testing, where every

member of a popu lation is sampled. In most cases, the st andard deviation is

estimated by examining a random sample taken from the popu lation. Using

the definition given above for a data set and applying it to a small or

moderately-sized sample resu lts in an estimate that tends to be too low. T he

most common measu re u sed is an adju sted version, the sample standard

deviation, which is defined by

denominator N − 1 is the nu mber of degrees of freedom in the vector

.

2

T he reason for this definition is that s is an u nbiased estimator for the

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variance σ 2 of the u nderlying popu lation, if that variance exists and the

sample valu es are drawn independent ly with replacement. However, s is not

an u nbiased estimator for the standard deviation σ; it tends to

u nderestimate the popu lation standard deviation. Althou gh an u nbiased

estimator for σ is known when the random variable is normally distribu ted,

the formu la is complicated and amou nts to a minor correction: see Unbiased

estimation of standard deviation. Moreover, u nbiasedness, in this sense of

the word, is not always desirable; see bias of an estimator.

T his form has a u niformly smaller mean squ ared error than does the

u nbiased estimator, and is the maximu m-likelihood estimate when the

popu lation is normally distribu ted.

A large standard deviation indicates that the data points are far from the

mean and a small standard deviation indicates that they are clu stered closely

arou nd the mean.

For example, each of the three data sets {0, 0, 14, 14}, {0, 6, 8, 14} and {6,

6, 8, 8} has a mean of 7. T heir standard deviations are 7, 5, and 1,

respectively. T he t hird set has a mu ch smaller standard deviation than the

other two becau se its valu es are all close to 7. In a loose sense, the standard

deviation tells u s how far from the mean the data points tend to be. It will

have the same u nit s as the data points themselves. If, for instance, the data

set {0, 6, 8, 14} represents the ages of fou r siblings in years, the standard

deviation is 5 years.

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As another example, the data set {1000, 1006, 1008, 1014} may represent

the distances traveled by fou r athletes, measu red in met ers. It has a mean of

1007 meters, and a standard deviation of 5 meters.

for example, the reported standard deviation of a grou p of repeated

measu rements shou ld give the precision of those measu rements. When

deciding whether measu rements agree with a theoretical prediction, the

standard deviation of those measu rements is of cru cial importance: if the

mean of the measu rements is too far away from the prediction (with the

distance measu red in standard deviations), then the theory being tested

probably needs to be revised. T his makes sense since they fall ou tside the

range of valu es that cou ld reasonably be expected to occu r if the prediction

were correct and t he standard deviation appropriately qu antified. See

prediction interval.

Application examples

is in appreciating how mu ch variation there is from the "average" (mean).

Weather

As a simple example, consider average temperatu res for cities. While two

cities may each have an average temperatu re of 15 °C, it's helpfu l to

u nderstand that the range for cities near the coast is smaller than for cities

inland, which clarifies that, while the average is similar, the chance for

variation is greater inland than near the coast.

So, an average of 15 occu rs for one cit y with highs of 25 °C and lows of 5 °C,

and also occu rs for another city with highs of 18 and lows of 12. T he standard

deviation allows u s to recognize that t he average for the city with the wider

variation, and thu s a higher standard deviation, will not offer as reliable a

prediction of temperatu re as the city with the smaller variation and lower

standard deviation.

Sports

there will be teams that rate highly at some things and poorly at others.

Chances are, the teams that lead in the standings will not show su ch

disparity, bu t will perform well in most categories. T he lower the standard

deviation of their ratings in each category, the more balanced and consistent

they will tend to be. Whereas, teams with a higher standard deviation will be

more u npredictable. For example, a team that is consistently bad in most

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categories will have a low standard deviation. A team that is consistently good

in most categories will also have a low standard deviation. However, a team

with a high standard deviation might be the type of team that scores a lot

(strong offense) bu t also concedes a lot (weak defense), or, vice versa, that

might have a poor offense bu t compensates by being difficu lt to score on.

T rying to predict which teams, on any given day, will win, may inclu de looking

at the standard deviations of the variou s team "stats" ratings, in which

anomalies can match strengths vs. weaknesses to attempt to u nderstand

what factors may prevail as stronger indicators of eventu al scoring

ou tcomes.

deviation of lap times is more consistent than a driver wit h a higher standard

deviation. T his information can be u sed to help u nderstand where

opportu nities might be fou nd to redu ce lap times.

Finance

given secu rity (stocks, bonds, property, etc.), or the risk of a portfolio of

secu rities (actively managed mu tu al fu nds, index mu tu al fu nds, or ET Fs).

Risk is an important factor in determining how to eﬃcient ly manage a

portfolio of investments becau se it det ermines the variation in retu rns on

the asset and/or portfolio and gives investors a mathemat ical basis for

investment decisions (known as mean-variance optimizat ion). T he overall

concept of risk is t hat as it increases, the expected retu rn on the asset will

increase as a resu lt of the risk premiu m earned – in other words, investors

shou ld expect a higher retu rn on an investment when said investment carries

a higher level of risk, or u ncertainty of that retu rn. When evalu ating

investments, investors shou ld estimate both the expect ed retu rn and the

u ncertainty of fu tu re retu rns. Standard deviation provides a qu antiﬁed

estimate of the u ncertainty of fu tu re retu rns.

For example, let's assu me an investor had to choose bet ween two stocks.

Stock A over the last 20 years had an average retu rn of 10%, with a standard

deviation of 20% and Stock B, over the same period, had average retu rns of

12%, bu t a higher standard deviation of 30%. On the basis of risk and retu rn,

an investor may decide that Stock A is the safer choice, becau se Stock B's

additional 2% point s of retu rn is not worth the additional 10% standard

deviation (greater risk or u ncertainty of the expected retu rn). Stock B is

likely to fall short of the initial investment (bu t also to exceed the initial

investment) more often than Stock A u nder the same circu mstances, and is

estimated to retu rn only 2% more on average. In this example, Stock A is

expected to earn abou t 10%, plu s or minu s 20% (a range of 30% to -10%),

abou t two-thirds of the fu tu re year retu rns. When considering more extreme

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possible retu rns or ou tcomes in fu tu re, an investor shou ld expect resu lts of

u p to 10% plu s or minu s 90%, or a range from 100% to -80%, which inclu des

ou tcomes for three standard deviations from the average retu rn (abou t

99.7% of probable retu rns).

Calcu lating the average retu rn (or arit hmetic mean) of a secu rity over a given

nu mber of periods will generate an expected retu rn on t he asset. For each

period, su btracting the expected retu rn from the actu al retu rn resu lts in

the variance. Squ are the variance in each period to find the effect of the

resu lt on the overall risk of the asset. T he larger the variance in a period, the

greater risk the secu rity carries. T aking the average of t he squ ared variances

resu lts in the measu rement of overall u nits of risk associated with the asset.

Finding the squ are root of this variance will resu lt in the standard deviation

of the investment t ool in qu estion.

Geometric interpretation

T o gain some geometric insights, we will start with a popu lation of three

3

valu es, x1 , x2, x3. T his defines a point P = (x1 , x2, x3) in R . Consider the line L

= {(r, r, r) : r in R}. T his is the "main diagonal" going throu gh the origin. If ou r

three given valu es were all equ al, then the standard deviation wou ld be zero

and P wou ld lie on L. So it is not u nreasonable to assu me t hat the standard

deviation is related to the distance of P to L. And that is indeed the case.

Moving orthogonally from P to the line L, one hits the point :

whose coordinates are the mean of the valu es we started ou t with. A little

algebra shows that the distance between P and R (which is the same as the

distance between P and the line L) is given by σ√3. An analogou s formu la

(with 3 replaced by N) is also valid for a popu lation of N valu es; we then have

N

to work in R .

Chebyshev's inequality

An observation is rarely more than a few standard deviat ions away from the

mean. Chebyshev's inequ ality entails t he following bou nds for all distribu tions

for which the standard deviation is defined.

At least 50% of the valu es are within √2 standard deviations from the

mean.

At least 75% of the valu es are within 2 standard deviations from the

mean.

At least 89% of the valu es are within 3 standard deviations from the

mean.

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At least 94% of the valu es are within 4 standard deviations from the

mean.

At least 96% of the valu es are within 5 standard deviations from the

mean.

At least 97% of the valu es are within 6 standard deviations from the

mean.

At least 98% of the valu es are within 7 standard deviations from the

mean.

And in general:

2

At least (1 − 1/k ) × 100% of the valu es are within k standard deviations

from the mean.

that the distribu tion of a su m of

many independent, identically

distribu ted random variables

tends towards the normal

distribu tion. If a data distribu tion

is approximately normal then

abou t 68% of the valu es are

within 1 standard deviation of the

mean (mathematically, μ ± σ,

where μ is the arithmetic mean), Dark blue is less than one standard deviation

abou t 95% of the valu es are from the mean. For the normal distribution, this

within two standard deviations (μ accounts for 68.27 % of the set; while two

± 2σ), and abou t 99.7% lie within standard deviations from the mean (medium and

dark blue) account for 95.45%; three standard

3 standard deviations (μ ± 3σ).

deviations (light, medium, and dark blue) account

T his is known as the 68-95-99.7 for 99.73%; and four standard deviations

rule, or the empirical rule. account for 99.994%. The two points of the

curve which are one standard deviation from the

For variou s valu es of z, the mean are also the inflection points.

percentage of valu es expected

to lie in the symmetric

conﬁdence interval (−zσ,zσ) are as follows:

zσ percentage

1σ 68.27%

1.645σ 90%

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1.960σ 95%

2σ 95.450%

2.576σ 99%

3σ 99.7300%

3.2906σ 99.9%

4σ 99.993666%

5σ 99.99994267%

6σ 99.9999998027%

7σ 99.9999999997440%

mean

T he mean and the standard deviation of a set of data are u su ally reported

together. In a certain sense, the standard deviation is a "natu ral" measu re of

statistical dispersion if the center of the data is measu red abou t the mean.

T his is becau se the standard deviation from the mean is smaller than from

any other point. T he precise statement is the following: su ppose x1 , ..., xn are

real nu mbers and define the fu nction:

that σ(r) has a u niqu e minimu m at the mean:

to the mean. It is a dimensionless nu mber that can be u sed to compare the

amou nt of variance between popu lations with different means.

If we want to obtain the mean by sampling the distribu tion then the standard

deviation of the mean is related to the standard deviation of the distribu tion

by:

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See also: Algorithms for calculating variance

A slightly faster (significantly for ru nning standard deviat ion) way to compu t e

the popu lation standard deviation is given by the following formu la (thou gh

considerations mu st be made for rou nd-off error, arithmetic overflow, and

arithmetic u nderflow conditions):

(continu ou s) standard deviation. A set of three power su ms s0,1,2 are each

compu ted over a set of N valu es of x, denoted as x k. Given the resu lts of

these three ru nning su mations, one can u se σ at any time to compu te the

current valu e of the ru nning standard deviation. T his crafty definition for sj

allows u s to easily represent the two different phases (su mmation

compu tation sj, and σ calcu lation). Note that s0 raises x to the zero power,

0

and since x is always 1, s0 evalu ates to N.

to consider rou nd-off error, arithmetic overflow, and arit hmetic u nderflow.

T o avoid this, we will periodically redu ce their absolu te valu es in a process

reminiscent of normalizing a u nit vector. Since s1 is the su m of valu es and s2

is the su m of squ ares, we can estimate these valu es for a smaller valu e of N

simply by dividing by ou r cu rrent N, and mu ltiplying by a well-selected

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selecting 1 as the valu e of new-N. However, this is a particu larly poor choice,

as the accu racy of ou r continu ou s approximation was est ablished only for

large N, and this wou ld cau se ou r next valu e to have as mu ch weight in the

calcu lation as all previou s valu es. A more appropriate valu e of new-N is the

maximu m valu e we can afford, su ch that we are su re we can renormalize

back to new-N again before N again becomes large enou gh to introdu ce error

(or catastrophe) as we add more valu es.

overflow errors, especially when the sample valu es are very close to the

mean. It can actu ally give negative standard devation valu es, which shou ld be

impossible given the definition. T his method is also given in a lot of

textbooks. However, it shou ld not be u sed. Below is a better method for

calcu lating ru nning su ms method with redu ced rou nding errors:

A1 = x1

Q1 = 0

sample variance:

standard variance

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given by:

A1 = x1

Q1 = 0

where n is the total nu mber of elements, and n' is the nu mber of elements

with non-zero weights. T he above formu las become equ al to the more simple

formu las given above if we take all weights equ al to 1.

See also

precision deviation

Algorithms for Raw score

calcu lating variance Root mean squ are

An inequ ality on Sample size

location and scale Satu ration (color

parameters theory)

Chebyshev's Skewness

inequ ality Standard error

Confidence interval Standard score

Cu mu lant Unbiased estimation

Deviation (statistics) of standard deviation

Geometric standard Variance

deviation Volatility

Ku rtosis Yamartino method

Mean absolu te error for calcu lating

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Median wind direction

References

1. ^ Sir Francis Galton discovered the standard deviation

(http://www.sciencetimeline.net/1866.htm)

External links

A Gu ide to Understanding & Calcu lating Standard Deviat ion

(http://www.stats4stu dents.com/Essentials/Measu res-Of-Spread

/Overview_3.php)

Interactive Demonstration and Standard Deviation Calcu lator

(http://www.u sablestats.com/tu torials/StandardDeviation)

Standard Deviation - an explanation withou t maths

(http://www.techbookreport.com/tu torials/stddev-30-secs.html)

Standard Deviation, an elementary int rodu ction (http://davidmlane.com

/hyperstat/A16252.html)

Standard Deviation, a simpler explanat ion for writers and jou rnalists

(http://www.robertniles.com/stats/stdev.shtml)

Standard Deviation Calcu lator (http://invsee.asu .edu /srinivas/stdev.html)

T exas A&M Standard Deviation and Confidence Interval Calcu lators

(http://www.stat.tamu .edu /~jhardin/applets/)

Categories: Statistical deviation and dispersion | Su mmary statistics |

Statistical terminology | Data analysis

Hidden categories: Articles to be merged since November 2008 | All articles

to be merged | Statistics articles linked to the portal | St atistics articles wit h

navigational template

All text is available u nder the terms of the GNU Free Docu mentation

License. (See Copyrights for details.)

Wikipedia® is a registered trademark of the Wikimedia Fou ndation, Inc.,

a U.S. registered 501(c)(3) tax-dedu ctible nonprofit charit y.

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