Lesson Note: Topic : Course :

Estimation Statistical Inference

Statistical Inference
The theory of Statistical inference consists of those methods by which one makes inferences or generalizations about a population. The trend of today is the classical method of estimating a population parameter, where by inferences are based strictly on information obtained from a random sample selected from the population. In classical method we estimate unknown population parameters such as the mean, proportion, and the variance by computing statistics from random samples and applying the theory of sampling distributions.

Classical Method of Estimation Point Estimate:

A point estimate of some population parameter is a single value of a statistic . For example, the value x of the statistic X , computed from a sample of size n, is a point estimate of the population parameter . Action Space:
The set of all possible actions that can be taken in an estimation problem is called the action space or decision space. An estimator is not expected to estimate the population parameter without error. We do not expect X to estimate exactly, but we certainly hope that it is not too far. Since different samples will generally yield different values of and , therefore, different values of

1 and 2 , these end points of the interval are values of corresponding random variables 1 and 2 . From the sampling distribution of we
shall be able to determine 1 and 2 such that the P( 1 < < 2 ) is equally to any positive fractional value we care to specify. If, for instance, we find 1 and 2 such that P (1 < < 2 ) = 1 for 0 < < 1 , then we have a probability of 1- of selecting a random sample that will produce an interval containing . The interval 1 < < 2 . computed from the selected sample, is then called a (1- )100% confidence interval, the fraction (1- ) is called the confidence coefficient or the degree of confidence, and the end points, 1 and 2 , are called the lower and upper confidence limits. Thus, when =0.05, we have a 95% confidence interval and when =0.01, we obtain 99% confidence interval.

Estimating the Mean: Case I Confidence interval for ; known:

If x is the mean of a random sample of size n from a population with known variance 2 , a (1- )100% confidence interval for is given by

where z 2

< < x + z 2 2 n n x and z = / n is the z value leaving an area of /2 to the right.

x z

Example :

The mean and standard deviation for the quality grade-point averages of a random sample of 36 college seniors are calculated to be 2.6 and 0.3, respectively. Find the 95% and 99% confidence intervals for the mean of the entire senior class.

Q1.

An electrical firm manufactures light bulbs that have a length of life that is approximately normally distributed with a standard deviation of 40 hours. If a random sample of 30 bulbs has an average life of 780 hours, find a 96 % confidence interval for the population mean of all bulbs produced by this firm.

Error in Estimating : If x is used as an estimate of , we can then be ( 1- )100% confident that the error will not exceed z / n .
2

Sample Size for Estimating : If x is used as an estimate of , we can then be ( 1- )100% confident that the error will
not exceed a specified amount e when the sample size is

z n= 2 e Example:

How large a sample is required in Example above, if we want to be 95% confident that our estimate of is not off by more than 0.05? Q2. How large a sample is needed in Q1. if we wish to be 96% confident that our sample mean will be within 10 hours of the true mean?

Case II:

Small-Sample Confidence Interval for ; Unknown: If x and s are the mean and standard deviation of a random sample of size n<30 from an approximately normal population with unknown variance 2 , a (1- )100% confidence interval for is given by s s x t < < x + t 2 2 n n where t 2 is the t value with = n 1 degree freedom, leaving an area of /2 to the
right.

Example 3: The contents of similar containers of sulfuric acid are 9.8, 10.2, 10.4, 9.8,
10.0, 10.2, and 9.6 liters. Find a 95% confidence interval for the mean content of all such containers, assuming an approximate normal distribution for container contents. Q3. From Walpole, Exercise on page no. 283, Q#4

Estimating the difference between two Mean Case I 2 2 Confidence Interval for 1 2 ; 1 and 2 known If x1 and x 2 are the means of independent random samples of size n1 and n2 from 2 2 populations with known variances 1 and 2 respectively , a (1- )100% confidence interval for 1 2 ; is given by
( x1 x 2 ) z
2 2 2 12 2 12 2 + < 1 2 < ( x1 x 2 ) + z + 2 n1 n2 n1 n2

where z 2 is the z value leaving an area of /2 to the right .

Example:
A standardized chemistry test was given to 50 girls and 75 boys. The girls made an average grade of 76 with a standard deviation of 6 while the boys made an average grade of 82 with a standard deviation of 8. Find a 96% confidence interval for the difference 1 2 ; where 1 is the mean score of all boys and 2 is the mean score of all girls who might take this test. Q 4. From Walpole Exercise on page on 284 Q# 15. Two kinds of thread are being compared for strength. Fifty pieces of each type of thread are tested under similar conditions. Brand A had an average tensile strength of 78.3 kilograms with a standard deviation of 5.6 kilograms, while brand B had an average tensile strength of 87.2 kilograms with a standard deviation of 6.3 kilograms. Construct a 95% confidence interval for the difference of the population means.

Case II

2 2 Confidence Interval for 1 2 ; 1 = 2 Unknown If x1 and x 2 are the means of independent random samples of size n1 and n2

respectively, from approximate normal populations with unknown but equal variances, a (1- )100% confidence interval for 1 2 ; is given by ( x1 x 2 ) t S p
2

1 1 1 1 + < 1 2 < ( x1 x 2 ) + t S p + 2 n1 n 2 n1 n 2

where S p is the period estimate of the population standard deviation and t 2 is the t value with = n1 + n2 2 degrees of freedom, leaving an area of /2 to the right.

(n1 1) s12 + (n2 1) s 22 S = n1 + n2 2

2 p

Example:
A course in mathematics is taught to 12 students by the conventional classroom procedure. A second group of 10 students was given the same course by means of programmed materials. At the end of the semester the same examination was given to each group. The 12 students meeting in the classroom made an average grade of 85with a standard deviation of 4, while the 10 students using programmed materials made an average of 81 with a standard deviation of 5. Find a 90% confidence interval for the difference between the population means, assuming the populations are approximately normally distributed with equal variances. Q 5. From Walpole Exercise on page on 284 Q# 18. Students may choose between a 3-semester-hour course in physics without labs and a 4-semester-hour course with labs. The final written examination is the same for each section. If 12 students in the section with labs made an average examination grade of 84 with a standard deviation of 4, and 18 students in the section without labs made an average of 77 with a standard deviation of 6, find a 99% confidence interval for the difference between the average grades for the two courses. Assume the populations to be approximately normally distributed with equal variances.

Case III 2 2 Confidence Interval for 1 2 ; 1 2 Unknown 2 2 If x1 and s1 , and x 2 and s 2 are the means and variances of small independent samples of size n1 and n2 respectively, from approximate normal populations with unknown and unequal variances, an approximate (1- )100% confidence interval for 1 2 ; is
given by ( x1 x 2 ) t
2 2 2 s12 s 2 s12 s 2 + < 1 2 < ( x1 x 2 ) + t + 2 n1 n 2 n1 n 2

where t 2 is the t value with

s12 s 22 2 + ) n1 n2 = s12 2 s 22 2 ( ) ( ) n1 n [ ]+[ 2 ] (n1 1) (n2 1) (

degree of freedom , leaving an area of / 2 to the right.

Example

Records for the past 15years have shown the average rainfall in a certain region of the country for the month of May to be 4.93 cm., with a standard deviation of 1.14 cm. A second region of the country has had an average rainfall in May of 2.64 cm with a standard deviation of 0.66 cm during the past 10 years. Find a 95% confidence interval for the true average rainfalls in these two regions assuming that the observations come from normal populations with different variances. Q 5. From Walpole Exercise on page on 284 Q# 20. The following data represent the running times of films produced by two motionpicture companies: Time (minutes) Company I 103 94 110 87 98 Company II 97 82 123 92 175 88 118 Compute a 90% confidence interval for the difference between the average running times of films produced by the two companies. Assume that the running times for each of the companies are approximately normally distributed with unequal variances.

Case IV Confidence Interval for D = 1 2 ; for Paired Observation If d and s d are the mean and standard deviation of the differences fo n random pairs of measurements, a (1- )100% confidence interval for D = 1 2 is s s d t d < D < d + t d 2 2 n n where t 2 is the t value with = n-1 degrees of freedom, leaving an area of /2 to the
right.

Example:
Twenty college freshmen were divided into 10 pairs, each member of the pair having approximately the same IQ. One of each pair was selected at random and assigned to a mathematics section using programmed materials only. The other member of each pair was assigned to a section in which the professor lectured. At the end of the semester each group was given the same examination and the following result were recorded.

Pair

Programmed Materials

Lectures

1 76 81 -5 2 60 52 8 3 85 87 -2 4 58 70 -12 5 91 86 5 6 75 77 -2 7 82 90 -8 8 64 63 1 9 79 85 -6 10 88 83 5 Find a 98% confidence interval for the true difference in the two learning procedure.

Advice: To get command in this topic, solve exercise on page 262-265 from question # 3 to 21. Estimating the Variance: Chi-square Distribution. If s 2 is the variance of a random sample of size n taken from a normal population having (n 1) s 2 2 2 2 the variance , then = is a value of a random variable having the 2 chhi-square distribution with = n 1 degree of freedom. Confidence Internal for 2 If s 2 is the variance of a random sample of size n from a normal population, a (1- )100% confidence interval for 2 is given by (n 1) s 2 ( n 1) s 2 2 < < 2 12
2 2

1 are values with = n 1 degrees of freedom, leaving areas 2 of / 2 and 1- / 2 respectively, to the right.
Where
2 2

and

Example:
The following are the volumes, in deciliters, of 10 cans of peaches distributed by a certain company; 46.4, 46.1, 45.8, 47.0, 46.1, 45.9, 45.8, 46.9, 45.2, and 46.0. Find a 95% confidence interval for the variance of all such cans of peaches distributed by this company, assuming volume to be a normally distributed variable.

Estimating the Ratio of Two Variances: F-Distribution:

2 2 If s1 and s 2 are the variances of independent random samples of size n1 and n2 taken

12 and 22 respectively, then s12 12 f = 2 s2 22 is a value of a random variable F having the F distribution with 1 = n1 1 and 2 = n2 1 degrees of freedom.
from normal populations with variances

Confidence Interval for

2 2

12

22 :

If s1 and s 2 are the variances of independent random samples of size n1 and n2 , respectively, from normal populations, then a (1- )100% confidence interval for

12

22

is

s12 2 s2 1 < 12 < 12 f ( 2 ,1 ) s 22 f (1 , 2 ) 2 s2 2

Where f 2 (1 , 2 ) is an f value with 1 = n1 1 and 2 = n2 1 degrees of freedom leaving an aea of / 2 to the right , and f 2 ( 2 ,1 ) is a similar f value with
2

2 = n2 1 and 1 = n1 1 degrees of freedom.