Section 2

Supporting Report: Sections 2-6

Supporting Report: Sections 2-6

Response to the Minister of Transport (July 2011) Statements regarding the City Rail Link

Table of Contents
1 2 Introduction The Auckland Plan, City Centre Masterplan and growth projections 2.1 2.2 Overview Population and employment growth projections supporting the Auckland Plan and city centre growth Employment Employment in the city centre Conclusion 1 3 4

8 17 22 23 24 25 26 30 31 32

2.3 2.4 2.5 3

Actions to resolve current City Centre access issues 3.1 3.2 3.3 3.4 3.5 3.6 Overview Past actions supporting public transport Key actions supporting the road network Key actions supporting walking and cycling Future actions to support City Centre access Summary of completed and planned actions to resolve City Centre access issues Conclusion

35 41 43 44 44 50 65 74 81

3.7 4

Rail patronage, intensification and City Centre growth from investment 4.1 4.2 4.3 4.4 4.5 4.6 Overview Overall evidence of rail patronage increases Patronage changes linked to investment Intensification City Centre regeneration Conclusion

Beginning of large-scale investment along the rail corridors 5.1 5.2 5.3 5.4 5.5 Overview Capacity: Planning for large scale investment Assessing potential demand Actual demand Conclusion

83 84 84 88 94 98 100 101 102 103 108 118

Implementation of park-and-ride bus feeder services 6.1 6.2 6.3 6.4 6.5 Overview Overview of access modes to railway stations Bus feeder services Park-and-ride Conclusion

Glossary
Auckland Council Auckland Growth Model Auckland Harbour Bridge Auckland-Manukau Eastern Transport Initiative AECOM Parsons Brinckerhoff & Beca Auckland Passenger Transport Model Auckland Plan Auckland Regional Transport Authority Auckland Regional Transport Model Auckland Strategic Planning Auckland Transport Auckland Transport Model (Council) Auckland University of Technology Additional Waitemata Harbour Crossing Britomart Transport Centre Census Area Units CB Richard Ellis Central Motorway Junction Central Business District City Centre Masterplan Closed Circuit Television Crime Prevention Through Environmental Design City Rail Link AC AGM AHB AMETI APB&B APT AP ARTA ART ASP AT ATM AUT AWHC BTC CAUs CBRE CMJ CBD CCMP CCTV CPTED CRL

Developing Auckland Regional Transport Draft Unitary Plan Economic Future Model Full-time Equivalents Future Planning Framework Frequent Transit Network Light Rail Transit Long Term Plan Manukau Institute of Technology McCormick Rankin Cagney Metropolitan Urban Limit New Zealand Institute of Economic Research New Zealand Transport Association Northern Busway Park-and-Ride Passenger Transport Action Plan Public Transport Network Plan Public Transport Operating Model Rail Development Plan Regional Public Transport Plan Research Monitoring and Investigation Unit (AC) Rapid Transit Network Rural Urban Boundary Statistics New Zealand Transit Oriented Development University of Auckland

DART UP EFM EFTS FPF FTN LRT LTP MIT MRC MUL NZIER NZTA Busway P&R PTAP PTNP PTOM RDP RPTP RIMU RTN RUB SNZ TOD UoA

1 Introduction
1. The City Rail Link (CRL) comprises a proposed 3.4km rail tunnel from Britomart to Mt Eden at an estimated capital cost of $2.86 billion (when fully inflated to the year of spend), and includes the purchase of additional trains to significantly increase rail frequencies across the network as well as providing additional capacity to serve City Centre growth. The CRL, as shown in Figure 1.1 will connect Britomart to the existing Western Line with three new underground city centre stations in the Aotea Square, Karangahape Road and Newton areas. The CRL is required as the existing terminus at Britomart limits line capacity to 20 trains per hour, and significantly constrains the rail networks potential in servicing planned growth in the Auckland Region. In late 2010, KiwiRail and the Auckland Regional Transport Authority (ARTA) completed a study for route protection of the CRL in response to a 2008 request of the then Minister of Finance (the APB&B Study). In May 2011, Auckland Transport and Auckland Council completed a review of the APB&B Study. The Ministry of Transport, Treasury and the New Zealand Transport Agency (NZTA) also completed a review the APB&B Study in May 2011.

2.

3.

Figure 1.1: Map of the City Rail Link

Source: Auckland Transport analysis

4. 5.

In May 2011, Central Government and Auckland Council agreed it makes strategic sense to protect the CRL route. In late June 2011, Auckland Council resolved to direct Auckland Transport to seek a designation for the CRL route.

6.

On 25 July 2011, the Mayor received a letter from the (then) Minister of Transport requesting a review of the CRL to include: Finalisation of the spatial plan and master plan including establishing achievable growth projections for the CBD Demonstration of a commitment to resolving current CBD issues, for example by improving bus operations and addressing capacity issues Evidence of rail patronage increases, particularly in the morning peak, residential intensification and CBD regeneration as a result of current investment Beginning implementation of large scale residential developments along the rail corridors Implementation of additional park and ride sites, and changes to bus feeder services

The following table shows how this report addresses the letter:
Ministers Statement Finalisation of the spatial plan and master plan including achievable growth projections for the CBD Demonstration of a commitment to resolving current CBD access issues, for example by improving bus operations and addressing capacity issues Evidence of rail patronage increases, particularly in the morning peak, residential intensification and CBD regeneration as a result of current investment Beginning implementation of large scale residential developments along the rail corridors Implementation of additional park and ride sites, and changes to bus feeder services Report Section Section 2: The Auckland Plan, City Centre Masterplan and growth projections Section 3: Actions to resolve current city centre access issues Section 4: Rail patronage, intensification and city centre growth from investment Section 5: Beginning of large scale investment along the rail corridors Section 6: Implementation of park-andride and bus feeder services

7.

This report addresses the above statements as well as a range of broader issues that, in the course of working through the Ministers statements, have become important to the story behind the information the Minister was seeking. It is important to read the document with a number of important points in mind: a. The work is not intended to provide a business case for funding for the CRL. Information contained here will, however, be important contextual or evidential information for any business case for Central Government funding. b. While the Ministers statements are addressed in one document, each section is intended to stand alone. As such, an executive summary is not included in this introduction. Rather, each section has an opening summary box at the beginning of the section that covers the key points addressing the Ministers statements. c. There is some crossover between the content of the sections. This is necessary to satisfactorily address the issues raised to address each statement. As such, the document is not intended to flow from one section to another in a seamless and integrated story.

8.

9.

This report does not include the other key aspect of the Ministers letter, namely that the Minister wished to see a robust, multi-modal evaluation of: The need for improved access to the city centre; and The best multi-modal solution to provide that access.

10. This work is addressed by the City Centre Future Access Study (CCFAS). Information has been correlated between the CCFAS and the sections covered here. 2

2 The Auckland Plan, City Centre Masterplan and growth projections

Highlights
The Auckland Plan (AP) is the strategic development document for the Auckland Region. The AP focuses on ensuring the provision of housing, employment and infrastructure to 2041. The City Rail Link (CRL) is identified in the AP as a critical piece of infrastructure that needs to be delivered to meet projected growth and drive public transport mode share. Auckland will continue to be the lead driver of population growth in New Zealand based on Statistics New Zealand (SNZ) projections. o Aucklands annual average population growth rate was 2.2 per cent over the past 20 years; growth is projected to continue to 2041 at a lower rate but be higher in absolute terms than previously. The CRL will be assessed against SNZs medium growth series, which projects the population increasing from 1.486 million in 2011 to 2.161 million by 2041, (as agreed with Central Government).

Dwelling growth distribution in Auckland is expected to comprise a mix of infill development within existing boundaries and greenfield expansion on the periphery. o o The AP assumes a 70 per cent/30 per cent infill housing to greenfield development split . The CRL will be assessed against an assumed 60 per cent/40 per cent split.
1

Employment growth in Auckland mirrors population growth with its growth rate slowing over the second half of the projection period (2031-2041). o The CRL will be assessed against the Auckland Growth Models medium scenario for employment growth, which projects an increase from 683,000 employees in 2011 to 958,000 million by 2041.

City centre intensification under the City Centre Masterplan (CCMP) results in projected increases in resident population and employment. o o Under the Auckland Regional Transport Model (ART3), the city centre population is projected to increase from 39,465 residents in 2011, to 77,487 residents in 2041. The city centre and city fringe will dominate as the largest employment areas. The medium growth scenario used in the Auckland Transport Model indicates the potential for 147,000 employees in the city centre by 2041, up from 64,000 in 2006. Trend change in the structure of employment in Auckland is expected to continue, placing more emphasis on commercially oriented jobs that will increase the demand for office space in the city centre.
2

The AP aspires to 70 per cent of growth over the next 30 years taking place within the Rural Urban Boundary (RUB), currently the same area as the 2010 Metropolitan Urban Limit (MUL). However, the AP seeks to enable up to 40 per cent growth outside the MUL, through the release of new greenfield areas, if insufficient take-up within the MUL is occurring. 2 City centre and city fringe as defined in the CCMP.

2.1 Overview
This section addresses the population and employment projections for the Auckland region and the city centre. It provides an overview of the AP, which describes how projections are derived and the role of the CCMP in delivering the APs objectives. Projections in the AP support the transport framework for Auckland to 2041.

The Auckland Plan

11. The Auckland Council (AC) has produced the AP; a long-term strategy to 2041 that contributes to Aucklands social, economic, environmental and cultural well-being. 12. The AP was adopted by AC in March 2012. The AP provides the overarching strategic framework for the long-term development of the region. It sets out a vision to 2041 and the outcomes, principles and transformative shifts required to achieve the vision. There are two critical AC plans that will help implement the AP over its first 10 years: the Unitary Plan, which is a statutory plan that details how AC will design, develop and grow the city (see Section 5); and the Long Term Plan (LTP), which prioritises the funding to deliver the AP on a staged basis. The CCMP is a 20 year vision that sets the direction for the future of the city centre as the cultural, civic, retail and economic heart of the city. A map of the city centre is shown in Figure 2.1. The CCMP is a key supporting document for the AP. 13. The AP provides the transport strategy for the city (to 2041) to address current congestion problems, accommodate future business and population growth, and move to a single transport system by: Improving the existing road and rail network. Encouraging a shift towards public transport. Supporting environmental sustainability and health.

14. Achievement of the APs objectives and growth projections is linked to Aucklands high-level development strategy comprising five key components: Making a quality compact Auckland work: Introduces the concept of development areas to accommodate growth based around town centres, corridors and suburban areas contiguous to town centres. In addition, it defines the urban-rural boundary. The development areas require good transport access leveraging off past and future investment in Aucklands rapid transit (RTN) network and around train stations. Development strategy (urban core)3: The development strategy, as shown in Figure 2.2, is designed to focus new development on the current and planned future RTN and horizontal infrastructure provision, with urban intensification around metropolitan centres, town centres and corridors. Key structural shapers and enablers: Critical infrastructure, integration of land use and transport, blue and green networks4 and key economic gateways of the ports and airport.

3 4

AP, page 55. The AP states that the city centre will have a linked network of green and blue spaces. Linear parks along streets between the major parks will enable safe connections. Smaller parks will be linked by quality pedestrian routes. Marine and green ecological areas will be created to support biodiversity and air and water quality in the city centre.

Two big initiatives: Transformational change to Aucklands city centre to create a global city and destination of international significance and the Southern Initiative5, which concentrates on addressing social needs. The CCMP informs how the city centre will develop. Working and delivering with others: Achieving the objectives of the AP through collaboration and commitment to transformational shifts and strategic directions.

15. The AP acknowledges that the vision for Auckland requires substantial public sector investment in transport, and sets out a multi-modal investment programme with first priority given to key transport initiatives. The programme identifies three new transport projects which are critical to transforming Auckland: City Rail Link Auckland-Manukau Eastern Transport Initiative (AMETI) and the East-West Link Additional Waitemata Harbour Crossing (AWHC)

Figure 2.1: Auckland city centre map

Source: CCMP, page 19.

The AP defines the Southern Initiative as an area of particular focus for stable homes and families, skills development, job growth and housing and environmental enhancement. It is also the site of Aucklands international airport and a gateway to Auckland and New Zealand.

Figure 2.2: Auckland development strategy (urban core)

Source: AP, page 19.

City Centre Masterplan

16. The AP recognises that to achieve the greatest benefits for the Auckland Region, initial efforts have to be focussed on development in the city centre and the area covered by the Southern Initiative. The CCMP and the Waterfront Plan6 provide the framework for the development of the city centre by focussing on eight transformational initiatives, one of which is the delivery of the CRL, including the new public transport stations and development opportunities at Karangahape Road, Newton and Aotea Square. Other initiatives which complement the CRL are: Developing a fully functioning city centre and exploiting waterfront opportunities. Reinforcing Aotea Quarters role as the civic and cultural hub. Creating a better defined network of green open space through street based green links. Building on the attributes of villages, precincts and creating improved connections. Improving walking and cycling opportunities. Supporting innovation and a creative culture. Adding choice to the retail, cultural and residential sectors. Developing the climate for investment.

17. The CCMP aims to balance development and achieve a compatible mix of uses across the city centre. It seeks a broadening in the city centre housing market from small apartments focussed on a transient community of students and short-term visitors, to a broader range of apartment typologies, particularly focussed on encouraging families to consider the city centre as a residential location. 18. The vision for the CRL in unlocking the potential for the city centre is: New CRL city centre station precincts offering a range of housing and work opportunities. They are places where Aucklanders want to live, work and visit. Each new CRL station precinct is a distinct neighbourhood, building on its existing heritage character and particular strengths.

19. Table 2.1 below summarises the land uses and development potential around the three CRL stations in the city centre: Table 2.1: City centre CRL stations development potential
Station Aotea Karangahape Rd Newton
Source: CCMP

Residential 73,000sqm 77,000sqm 750,000sqm

Commercial 249,000sqm 46,000sqm 320,000sqm

Civic/Arts 18,000sqm 3,000sqm -

Total Floor Space 340,000sqm 126,000sqm 1,070,000sqm

Dwellings 912 962 9,375

20. Enhanced public transport, and in particular the CRL, is seen as a key enabler of the CCMPs aspirations for the city centre, enabling easy access to the city centres employment opportunities and other offerings.

The Waterfront Plan is a non-statutory spatial plan under the AP. It sets out a vision and goals for the long-term development of the city centre waterfront and a strategy for the delivery of projects and initiatives over thirty years.

21. Delivery of the CCMP is dependent on sequencing of various projects, including transport projects. Figure 2.3 below demonstrates the transport interdependencies for the CCMP: Figure 2.3: CCMP transport interdependencies

Source: CCMP, page 195.

22. Actions prior to the CRL include the Wellesley Street corridor upgrade; interim upgrades to Quay, Hobson, Nelson and Victoria Streets, and decisions around the Britomart West Development Framework. Actions to follow the CRL include the final upgrades of Victoria Street Linear Park, Quay Street Boulevard and Nelson and Hobson Streets.

2.2 Population and employment growth projections supporting the Auckland Plan and city centre growth
23. This section focuses on aspects of the AP that particularly relate to population and employment growth in the Auckland region, city centre and city fringe, and discusses how these inform transport analysis and planning.

Growth projections used in the Auckland Plan and for transport modelling
24. The AP indicates how much residential growth (expressed as new dwellings) is expected to occur in different areas over the next 30 years. This is based on two scenarios, of either 60 per cent or 70 per cent of growth being accommodated inside the baseline Rural Urban Boundary (RUB). 25. The Auckland Growth Model (AGM) generated growth projections included in the AP for population, households, dwellings, employment and gross floor area for 2006 to 2051. These are based on the 2006 population projections from SNZ. The AP uses the SNZ high population growth projection. 26. Discussions with SNZ and Central Government resulted in agreement that the base scenario for modelling large infrastructure projects will use the SNZ medium population growth projection of 60 per cent of residential growth accommodated inside the RUB. Figure 2.4 illustrates the relationships between the AGM used to support the development of the AP and the Auckland Transport Model (ATM2).7 Both modelling processes rely on the same
7

The Auckland Transport Model is an integrated land use and transport model based on the Auckland Regional Transport (ART3)

base data inputs and there is a degree of interaction between the two models. Two key differences are that: The AP relies on the high population projections whereas ATM2 uses the medium projection as its base; and ATM2 generates a land use distribution based explicitly on the level of service of the assumed transport system whereas the AP process is more interactive and relies on both modelled and assessed views of land use patterns.

Figure 2.4: Flow diagram showing the process used to generate population and employment forecasts

SNZ Auckland population projections (high, medium and low series)

Other economic data such as national accounts and exports

AC and Market Economics Ltd Auckland Growth Model (high, medium, low

H, M, L projections

AC and Market Economics Ltd, Auckland Futures Model

AC input of growth patterns and growth aspirations for areas

Auckland Transport Model (ATM2) using medium projections

AP land use distribution

Source: AT analysis

APT (PT demand forecasts)

27. The modelling process to determine employment levels and distribution in the AP and ATM2 comprises the following steps: The APs regional employment projections for high, medium and low population growth scenarios are derived through the Economic Future Model (EFM), an input-output model forecasting Aucklands employment (using the employee count measure) to 2051. The EFM feeds into the AGM, which distributes forecast population and employment spatially across Auckland. The AP land use distribution is then derived in an iterative way, guided by the desired patterns of growth in AGM2, by AC input and outputs from ATM2. Land use distribution in ATM2 is derived through iterations between the Auckland Regional Transport (ART3) model and the Auckland Strategic Planning (ASP3) model. Medium population and employment projections are inputs to this process for assessing large transport projects. The Auckland Passenger Transport (APT)8 model receives inputs from the ART3 model for detailed passenger transport modelling.

model and the Auckland Strategic Planning (ASP3) model. Both models are administered by AC. The APT model is administered by AT.

Population Auckland
28. Figure 2.5 and Table 2.2 display the historic and forecast residential population growth in Auckland. The population of Auckland in 2006 was 1.303 million. The estimated population of Auckland as at June 2011 was 1.486 million.9 Between 1991 and 2011, Auckland experienced a net increase of 532,000 people, equating to an annual average growth rate of 2.2 per cent (26,600 people per annum), or a 56 per cent increase in absolute terms, (population 954,000 in 1991). Figure 2.5: Historic and forecast residential population growth in Auckland 1991-2041
2,500,000 Auckland Region population High Medium 2,000,000 Low Linear (Auckland Region population) 2,161,000

1,500,000 1,486,000

1,000,000

500,000

1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 2032 2034 2036 2038 2040

Source: AC 2012. AGM; SNZ Subnational population estimates.

29. Using the SNZ 2006 base population projections medium forecast, Auckland is projected to grow by nearly 970,000 new residents to 2.161 million by 2041, with an annual average growth rate of 1.5 per cent per year between 2007 and 2031 and 1.14 per cent per year thereafter to 2041. Between 2011 and 2041, Auckland is projected to grow by 729,000 residents. 30. Under the high forecast projections, Auckland will experience a net increase of 982,000 residents out to 2041, 307,000 more than a medium growth forecast. This would equate to an annual average growth rate of 1.6 per cent and a population of 2.467 million. Conversely, under a low forecast projection, Auckland would experience a net increase of 346,000 people, 329,000 less than under the medium forecast. 31. Figure 2.6 shows the change in Aucklands population from 2006-2041.

SNZ Subnational Population Estimates. Note that these figures have not been updated to reflect the SNZ September 2012 revised projections, which are slightly higher.

10

Table 2.2: Auckland population projections Population forecast scenarios

Medium Population Increase from 2011 Percentage change from 2011 High Population Increase from 2011 Percentage change from 2011 Low Population Increase from 2011 Percentage change from 2011 1,486,000 1,607,400 97,100 8% 1,735,400 249,400 17% 1,832,100 346,100 23% 1,895,400 409,400 28% 1,486,000 1,834,900 438,900 23% 2,156,900 670,900 45% 2,467,400 981,400 66% 2,768,300 1,282,300 86% 1,486,000 1,722,100 236,100 16% 1,948,300 462,300 31% 2,160,700 674,700 45% 2,361,000 875,000 59%

2011

2021

2031

2041

2051

Source: Auckland Residential Futures Model, RIMU, AC February 2012.

11

Figure 2.6: Auckland population change 2006-2041

Source: ART3 model, AT

12

32. The 2006 base population projections can be compared with the annual population estimates provided by SNZ to gauge alignment between projected and observed trends. Table 2.3 shows that the estimated actual level of population growth has fluctuated around the medium projection between 2006 and 2011 and was slightly (2000 people or 0.13 percent) below the medium projection by June 2011. Note that these figures have not been updated to reflect the SNZ September 2012 revised projections, which are slightly higher. Table 2.3: 2006 base population projections for Auckland and population estimates
Series High Medium 1,373,000 Low Estimate
Source: SNZ, June 2006.

2006

2007 1,400,280 1,394,400 1,388,560 1,394,000

2008 1,429,560 1,417,800 1,406,120 1,414,800

2009 1,458,840 1,441,200 1,423,680 1,436,500

2010 1,488,120 1,464,600 1,441,240 1,469,100

2011 1,517,400 1,488,000 1,458,800 1,486,000

33. Compared to national growth rates, Auckland has historically grown faster than the rest of New Zealand, with this trend estimated to continue. Table 2.4 shows that Aucklands annual average growth rate of 2.2 per cent between 1991 and 2011 exceeded that of 0.7 per cent for the rest of New Zealand. This resulted in Aucklands share of the national population increasing from 27 per cent in 1991 to 34 per cent in 2011, and being responsible for 57 per cent of national growth across this period. 34. The gap in population growth between Auckland and the rest of New Zealand is expected to widen, as shown in Figure 2.7. Auckland is projected to account for 64 per cent of New Zealands growth over the next 20 years, increasing its population share to 38 per cent by 2031.The projected growth rate of 0.4 per cent for the rest of New Zealand across this period is less than one-third of that for Auckland (1.4 per cent). Table 2.4: Comparison of historic and forecast population growth trends in Auckland and New Zealand, 1991-2031
Annual average growth rate Area 19912011 (historic) 2.2% 0.07% 1.2% 2011-2031 (forecast) 1.4% 0.4% 0.8% Auckland share of NZ population 1991 27% 2011 34% 2031 38% Auckland share of NZ population growth 19912011 57% 20112031 64%

Auckland Rest of NZ New Zealand

Source: SNZ and AC

13

Figure 2.7: Aucklands population growth projections compared to other areas, 20112041

2,500,000 Growth to 2041 2011 Population

2,000,000

Population

1,500,000

1,000,000

500,000 729,000 0

Source: AT analysis

Population city centre and city fringe

35. Population projections for the city centre and city fringe derived from ART3 using Scenario I (medium growth) are shown in Table 2.5 below. Table 2.5: ART3 (Scenario I) population projections for city centre and city fringe
2006 City centre ART3 City fringe ART3
Source: AC ART3 model Scenario I.

2011 39,465 31,484

2041 77,487 62,564

Change 2011-41 38,023 31,081

17,921

36. The population of both the city centre and city fringe are projected to almost double between 2011 and 2041. The city centre is projected to grow by 96 per cent and the city fringe by 99 per cent. Given that the population of the region as a whole is expected to increase by 45 per cent over this period, both the city centre and city fringe are growing significantly faster than the average rate of population growth within the region.

Households
37. Figure 2.8 shows the projected number of households in Auckland to 2041, based on the AGM. Under a medium growth scenario, Auckland is expected to grow by 400,000 households to reach a total of 859,000. This equates to an annual average annual growth 14

rate of 1.4 per cent (9,400 households per annum). Slower population growth rates (1.2 per cent) across the same period would result in a decrease of the average household size from 3.0 people per household in 2006 to 2.7 people in 2041. 38. Under a high growth scenario, there are a projected additional 552,000 households, bringing the total to 1.01 million. This equates to an annual average growth rate of 1.7 per cent (12,267 households per annum). Under a low growth scenario, the projection is for an additional 272,000 households, bringing the total to 731,000. This equates to an annual average growth rate of 1.0 per cent (6,045 households per annum). Figure 2.8: Growth scenarios for number of households in Auckland, 2006 (base) 2051
1,200,000

1,000,000

800,000
Forecast households

600,000

400,000

200,000

2006 2011 2016 2021 2026

Year

2031

2036

2041

2046

2051

Low

Medium

High

Source: AC 2012, AGM.

Source: Auckland Council, Auckland Growth Model, 2012.

39. Figure 2.9 shows existing and forecast population for each of the 17 location based sectors, made up of aggregated travel zones across the region.

15

Figure 2.9: Growth in population by sector 2006-2041

225,000 200,000 175,000 150,000

Growth to 2041 2006

Population

125,000 100,000 75,000 50,000 25,000 -

Source: AC ATM2 model Scenario I.

Dwellings
40. The AP caters for up to an additional 400,000 dwellings by 2041. Up to 280,000 (70 per cent) of these could be located within the 2010 metropolitan urban limit (MUL), and up to 160,000 outside the MUL. 41. Figure 2.10 shows the anticipated distribution of dwelling growth by area across Auckland under both 70/30 per cent and 60/40 per cent inside/outside MUL scenarios. Inside the MUL, between 35 and 40 per cent (140,000-160,000) of new dwellings are planned to occur within centres, including the city fringe. A further 10 to 15 per cent (40,000-60,000) of new dwellings are planned for within areas of moderate change. The remainder is planned to occur in future urban areas (10 per cent; 41,000 dwellings), areas of least or some change (5 per cent; 20,000 dwellings) and business areas (1 per cent; 4,000 dwellings). 42. Outside the MUL, between 13 and 23 per cent (52,000-92,000) of new dwellings are planned for in greenfield areas under investigation. The remainder are planned for in future urban areas (5 per cent; 20,000), satellite towns (5 per cent; 20,000), rural and coastal towns (3 per cent; 11,000), rural villages (2 per cent; 7,000), country living (1 per cent; 6,000) and other rural areas (1 per cent; 4,000). 43. By 2041, the region is projected to grow by a high growth scenario of 400,000 new residential dwellings under either a 60/40 or 70/30 inside/outside MUL scenario. In moving from a 70/30 to a 60/40 split, the largest change occurs in the share of dwelling growth in greenfield areas of investigation. These would increase from approximately 50,000 dwellings (13 per cent of growth) under a 70/30 split, to 90,000 dwellings (23 per cent of growth) under a 60/40 split.

16

Figure 2.10: Auckland Plan total anticipated dwelling growth 2012-2041

100,000
90,000

80,000

Inside 2010 MUL 280,000 to 240,000 dwellings

Number of new dwellings planned for

Outside 2010 MUL 120,000 to 160,000 dwellings

70,000 60,000

50,000
40,000 30,000

70-30 60-40

20,000
10,000

Area type

Source: AP, page 56.

Source: Auckland Council, 2012. The Auckland Plan.

44. An increase in growth in this category is redirected from metropolitan, town and local centres (approximately 20,000 dwellings), and areas of moderate change (approximately 20,000 dwellings).10 There is no projected change in the share of growth in other areas including the city centre and city fringe.

2.3 Employment
Approaches to modelling
45. The ATM spatially allocates the medium level of population and employment growth according to the capacity of the defined transport system and the relative demand for locations, up to a maximum in each area set by the capacities in the AP. The process also identifies the transport infrastructure and services required to support the APs growth aspirations.

Auckland Plan total employment projections

46. Figure 2.11 and Table 2.6 show that under a medium growth scenario, employment in Auckland is projected to grow by 423,000 employees from 2007 to 2051, bringing the total employment figure to 1.05 million. This equates to an average annual growth rate of 1.2 per cent. This is slower than the population growth rate (1.3 per cent) over the same period, reflecting a decreasing share of the population within the working age bracket. Within this period, employment is projected to grow faster between 2007 and 2031 than between 2031 and 2051, with an average annual growth rate of 1.7 per cent compared to 0.9 per cent in the latter period. The decreasing growth rate post 2031 is consistent with the projections for population growth.

10

A smaller share (650 dwellings) is projected to be redirected from areas of some and least change.

17

Figure 2.11: Forecast employment in Auckland, 2007 (base) 2051

1,400,000 1,200,000

Forecast employment

1,000,000 800,000 600,000 400,000 200,000 Low Medium High

Source: AC, AGM 2012.

Table 2.6: Auckland employment from Auckland Growth Model

2007 Low Medium High 628,400 628,400 628,400 2011 673,500 682,495 691,400 2021 751,600 783,168 814,700 2031 818,500 874,826 931,600 2041 870,300 957,659 1,040,100 2051 930,400 1,051,442 1,158,000

Source: AC 2012, AGM 2007 base.

47. Under a high growth scenario, an additional 530,000 employees are projected for Auckland by 2051, bringing the total to 1.16 million. This equates to an annual average growth rate of 1.4 per cent. Conversely, under a low growth scenario an additional 302,000 employees are projected, bringing the total to 930,000 employees, or an annual average growth rate of 1.0 per cent.

Change in employment structure

48. Just over one-third (35 per cent) of Aucklands employment is currently in the production and distribution sectors (220,000 employees); around one-quarter in the commercial sector (26 per cent; 162,000) and retail, hospitality and recreation sectors (23 per cent; 143,000); with the remaining employees in the education and health sector (16 per cent, 103,000). 49. Consistent with the observed trends in Auckland and other developed cities, Auckland is expected to become more specialised into commercial, office-based activity over time. Growth in the commercial sector will increase the demand for land and premises suitable for office-based activity. These sectors tend to co-locate in central areas. Meanwhile, growth will occur in the production and distribution sectors, maintaining the demand for land to accommodate these sectors. A continuation of the transformation of centres and accessible corridors, into areas of commercial, office-based activity; combined with the relocation and growth of production and distribution sector activities around the more peripheral greenfield sites is consistent with existing observed patterns of growth in Auckland and is most likely to continue. 50. Table 2.7 illustrates the changing nature of employment in Auckland and the growing importance of commercial activity. The commercial sector is projected to account for 30 per cent of employment growth between 2007 and 2041 (+129,411 employees). Between 2007 18

and 2041, this equates to an annual average growth rate of 1.7 per cent, which is faster than the overall annual average employment growth rate of 1.2 per cent. As a result, the share of employment in this sector is projected to grow from 26 per cent in 2007 to 30 per cent in 2041. This is consistent with observed growth patterns in Auckland, and in developed cities generally. Table 2.7: Forecast employment growth by sector and change in employment structure in Auckland, 2007-2041
Growth 2007-2041 Industry sector Production and distribution Retail, hospitality and recreation Commercial Education and health Total industry
Source: AC 2012, AGM.

Share of Auckland employment Share of growth 27% 12% 39% 22% 100% 2007 35% 23% 26% 16% 100% 2041 32% 19% 30% 18% 100%

Net change 89,250 37,969 129,411 72,496 329,126

Annual average growth rate 1.0% 0.7% 1.7% 1.6% 1.2%

51. The next largest share of growth is expected to occur in the production and distribution sectors (27 per cent; +89,250 employees). This is mainly a function of the current size of the sector and trends towards further globalisation within these industries. The annual growth rate of 1 per cent is below that of the total economy (1.2 per cent). This means the share of employment in this sector is forecast to decrease from 35 per cent in 2007 to 32 per cent in 2041. 52. Slower growth rates (0.7 per cent; +37,969 employees) are also projected for the retail, hospitality and recreation sectors, decreasing their share of employment from 23 per cent in 2007 to 19 per cent in 2041.11. The education and health sectors are projected to increase their share of employment from 16 per cent in 2007 to 18 per cent in 2041 due to faster growth rates (1.6 per cent; +72,469 employees). Auckland Transport Model employment projections and distribution 53. A key feature of the ATM employment projections is that these are spatially distributed based on a number of factors including relative accessibility. The map in Figure 2.12 shows the distribution of employment by mesh block across the region comparing 2006 and 2041. An obvious feature of the increase in employment is the high level of concentration of new jobs within centres and on, or close to, transport corridors. 54. Figure 2.12 shows Aucklands employment density in 2041

11

This does not reflect a decrease in demand for these sectors. Rather, it shows an increase in efficiency within the sector where higher rates of turnover per employee (and to an extent, floor space) occur. This is partly enabled through changes to the urban spatial structure enabling greater scale economies in serving more concentrated and larger population catchments. This, combined with real increases in household spend and a greater relative number of households, means that demand for retail floor space is likely to grow in line with that of population (AC, 2011. Industry snapshot for Auckland: the retail sector, prepared by Fairgray, S., Research, Investigations and Monitoring Unit).

19

Figure 2.12: Aucklands employment density 2041

Source: ART3 model, AT

20

55. The distribution of employment across the 17 sectors within the ATM now and in 2041, derived from ART3 outputs using the medium population projection (Scenario I), is shown in Figure 2.13. Figure 2.13: Growth in employment by sector 2006-2041

225,000 200,000 175,000

Growth to 2041 2006

Employment

150,000 125,000 100,000 75,000 50,000 25,000 -

Source: AC ATM2 model Scenario I. Note this assumes the CRL is in place.

56. The projections indicate that the relative dominance of the city centre and city fringe is expected to increase. Currently these two areas accommodate just over 50,000 more workers (i.e. double) than the next largest employment areas, the Isthmus Central and Manukau City Centre West. By 2041, the gap has increased by 50 per cent with over 75,000 more jobs located in the city centre and city fringe than in any other employment area.

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2.4 Employment in the city centre

57. A city centre baseline employment projection was developed for guidance on the likely level of employment growth in Aucklands city centre. The projection was derived from ACs future planning framework (FPF). This did not rely on a transport system with major infrastructure investment including the CRL. The framework methodology estimated employment within the city centre to be 90,936 in 2006. 58. The city centre baseline forecasts an increase to 140,000 employees by 2041. This equates to an annual average growth rate of 1.3 per cent, which is below that of 1.7 per cent experienced within the same area between 2000 and 2011.12 59. The city centre baseline relied on regional level modelling.13 Employment was considered initially at the pre-amalgamated Auckland city level and then distributed spatially across the city through an analysis of: Current and future zoning regulations. Historic spatial patterns of industry location within Auckland. Anticipated spatial patterns of industry location from demand for different land/location types based on the expected industry structure.

60. The above scenario informed the CCMP, which fed into the AP.

Transport model employment projections

61. The CRL is being modelled using the ATM2. The modelling is based on the medium population projection with 60 per cent of growth within the RUB.14 For this scenario the ART3 model indicates that the city centre will accommodate 147,003 employees in 2041. The city centre and city fringe combined are projected to accommodate a total of 203,112 employees in 2041. 62. The ART3 model indicates that the city centre will account for a significantly higher share of regional employment in 2041 (18 per cent) than it had in 2006 (12 per cent). The city fringe proportion of regional employment falls from 8 per cent in 2006 to 7 per cent in 2041. 63. The ART3 model outputs also illustrate the increasing specialisation of the city centre with 64 per cent of employment in business service type activities, compared with a regional average of 30 per cent, and an increase in the proportion of these jobs from 53 per cent in 2006 to 69 per cent in 2041.

12

This period includes a two-year employment decline between 2008 and 2010, whereas average annual employment growth rates were 2.2 per cent between 2000 and 2008. 13 AC FPF version 3.0, 9 September 2010, www.itsmybackyard.co.nz/resources/FPFPublicationVersion3.pdf, as at May 2012. Within this, the employment spatial distribution methodology is outlined within Market Economics Ltd (2008). Employment Projections Methodology, prepared for AC. 14 Previously, thorough investigation was undertaken to explain the differences between the AC and ART3 employment estimates for 2006. The differences were attributable to: Differences in counting methodologies: Primarily the ART3 outputs are derived from an earlier version of the Economic Futures Model. The use of employee count (ECs) in the AC model and full time equivalents (FTEs) in the ART3 model. Geographical coverage: The AC area extended into parts of the Grafton East CAU, including Auckland Hospital. Using SNZs Business Demographic Database to compare the two areas, the difference in employee count indicated employment to be 9 per cent higher in the AC area (90,936 employees versus 83,284 employees). Therefore, based on this analysis, employment in the ART3 city centre area (model zones 191 to 199 as shown in turquoise in Figure 16) was 83,284 in 2006.

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2.5 Conclusion
The key conclusions in respect of the Ministers statement requesting a review of CRL with respect to: Finalisation of the spatial plan and master plan including establishing achievable growth projections for the CBD, are as follows: 64. The finalised AP and CCMP confirm that: Aucklands population growth at broadly double the rate of the rest of New Zealand will continue for the foreseeable future and be the main driver of the need to invest in transport, new housing, jobs and other public/ social infrastructure and services. As required by statute, the AP sets out a vision to 2041 and the outcomes, principles and transformation shifts, including to Aucklands economy, required to accommodate this growth and achieve the vision. There are a number of critical supporting plans that will help implement the AP over its first 10 years: o The Economic Development Strategy (EDS) which is a 10-year strategy to bring about a transformational change in the way Auckland does business; o The LTP which prioritises the funding to deliver the AP; and, o The UP, which is a statutory plan that sets out the policies, rules and other methods in respect of what activities can take place and where. This plan is currently in preparation. The CCMP is a 20-year supporting vision for the AP that sets the direction for the future development of the City Centre as the economic, cultural, civic, and retail heart of the city. Together with an associated Waterfront Plan, the CCMP includes projects aimed to show Auckland to be a world leader in urban design, promote the City Centre as the locality of choice for national and international head offices, and encourage more tourism and business investment. Enhanced public transport, and in particular the CRL, is seen as a key enabler of the CCMPs aspirations for the city by providing efficient and easy access to the city centre employment and other offerings, including for tertiary education. 65. Growth projections for the City Centre: The population of the City Centre is projected to almost double by 2041, from 39,465 residents in 2011 to 77,487. The projected growth rate of 96 per cent for the City Centre over the 30 years compares with a projected increase of 45 per cent in Auckland City. Baseline forecasts indicate the City Centre will have 140,000 employees by 2041, compared to the estimated 91,000 in 2006. The City Centre is enjoying a notable increased concentration of high value specialist employment in business service type activities, with the Auckland proportion of these jobs up from 53 per cent in 2006 and projected to be 69 per cent in 2041. Currently, the City Centre has 64 per cent of Aucklands employment in business service activities.

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3 Actions to resolve current City Centre access issues

Highlights
Over the past decade there has been significant Local and Central Government investment to address City Centre access issues. These actions have included the delivery of new and improved transport infrastructure across modes, service and operational efficiencies and policy initiatives. This section documents past and future actions, the most significant include: o Britomart: The development of Britomart Transport Centre has led to the increase in rail mode share to the City Centre. In 2012 there were 6,055 alightings at Britomart in the am peak compared to 1,012 in 2003. Project DART: The double tracking of the Western Line, reopening of the Onehunga Line, Manukau Line and Newmarket Junction upgrade has built on the investment at Britomart and grown patronage from 5,596,400 in 2006 to 10,837,630 in 2011. Northern Busway: The introduction of 6.5 km of bi-directional, and 2.5 km of uni-directional busway, five stations, two park and ride stations and bus priority measures has led to an increase of 2,731 people crossing the Waitemat Harbour by bus, at peak, since 2005. City Centre Bus Priorities: The three major bus routes into the City Centre Fanshawe Street, Symonds Street and Albert Street have significant bus priority measures in place. The public transport mode share on these streets is between 65%-70%. Downtown Ferry Terminal Upgrade: Upgrade of Downtown Ferry Terminal to improve customer amenity and to cater for the increasing role of ferries. Central Motorway Junction: The completed central Auckland motorway connections provided an extra lane on SH16 from Newton Rd to Western Springs, a new Nelson St offramp and provided remaining direct motorway-to-motorway connections, taking traffic off City Centre streets. Walking and Cycling: Street upgrades, shared space initiatives, changes to traffic management and new infrastructure (e.g. the Wynyard Crossing Bridge) have supported the increase of pedestrian and cyclists entering the City Centre (from 5,249 in 2009 to 6,392 in 2012) and enhanced the amenity of the City Centre.

o o

Key actions to resolve City Centre access issues going forward include: o Rail Electrification: Electrification of rail completed by 2016 with 57 new electric trains providing high quality, quiet and energy efficient rail travel with additional capacity and faster services. Western Ring Route: Completion of the Western Ring Route by 2019 will connect SH20 to SH16 and the Northwestern city motorway, and provide direct motorway route from Auckland Airport to the City Centre for the first time. A new bus network: The new network will have less duplication, improved reliability, more consistent service levels and an all day network of frequent services for many journeys, not just at peak commuting. This uses the same amount of resources as the current network and enables more frequent bus service in bus-served areas and better local bus service (including to local employment areas) integrated with rail in rail-served areas. Integrated ticketing and fares: Integrated ticketing, being introduced on trains and ferries in the last quarter of 2012 and buses in 2013, followed by integrated fares, are key enablers of a more connected public transport network.

In total, over $2.5 billion has been invested over the last ten years in projects that contribute directly or indirectly to improving City Centre access, and another $3 billion is committed.

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3.1 Overview
This section outlines past and future actions to address access to the City Centre by Local and Central Government. It demonstrates how actions taken have supported significant increases in public transport mode share and a consequential reduction in the share of private vehicle use. The actions taken have led to congestion levels on the road network remaining stable since 2004. Future actions are aimed at further increasing public transport mode share and providing stronger integration of the rail and bus networks.

Access to the City Centre

66. Significant investment in Aucklands transport system over the past decade has led to increased numbers of commuters being able to access the City Centre in the morning peak. In 2001 50,615 people entered the City Centre between 7am and 9am. By 2011 this had increased to 67,203, an increase of 33%.

Mode Share to the City Centre

67. Private vehicles account for 45.8% (33,719) of trips to the City Centre. This percentage has reduced from 48.5% (35,550) in 2009. Roads into the City Centre are already at capacity at peak times, so the only way to achieve the expected growth in travel demand is through more public transport and walking and cycling. As this takes place, the proportion of people entering the City Centre in private vehicles will continue to reduce. Public transport accounted for 45.5% (33,484) of City Centre morning peak trips in 2012, up from 44.3% (32,425) in 2009. Between 2001 and 2012, public transport trips to the City Centre have grown by 59%, demonstrated in Figure 3.1 below.

68.

Figure 3.1: Morning peak trips to the City Centre (2001-2012)

80,000 70,000 60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 29,500 10,000 2001
Source: AT analysis

33,484 21,115

Total PT Car

33,719

2012

69.

Pedestrians and cyclists now account for 8.7% (6,392) of people entering the City Centre in the morning peak, up from 7.2% (5,249) in 2009. When combined with public transport trips these modes now account for 54.2% (39,876) of morning commuting trips to the City Centre, as shown in Figure 3.2. 25

Figure 3.2: City Centre morning peak mode share (2009-2012)

60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Car 2009 2010 2011 2012 48.5% 48.1% 49.6% 45.8% Bus 33.0% 32.5% 30.3% 32.2% Train 6.85% 6.90% 7.34% 8.23% Ferry 4.46% 4.56% 4.79% 5.04% Total PT Walking Cycling 44.3% 44.0% 42.4% 45.5% 6.10% 6.28% 6.89% 7.25% 1.07% 1.17% 1.12% 1.44% Active modes 7.17% 7.45% 8.01% 8.69% PT and Active Modes 51.5% 51.4% 50.4% 54.2%

Source: March Annual Auckland Region Screenline Survey, AC.

3.2 Past Actions Supporting Public Transport

70. The most significant past actions supporting City Centre public transport access are described below. Table 3.5 (in Section 3.6) provides a summary of these actions.

Britomart
71. The opening of the Britomart Transport Centre as the new Downtown bus/rail interchange in 2003 returned rail to the City Centre after an absence of 73 years. Its key features include: Integration of trains, buses, ferries and taxis in the core of the City Centre. Is the destination for more than 50% of morning peak rail trips. Is an integrated transport and development project with the revitalisation of the above ground (including the new Westpac and Ernst Young towers on Takutai Square) a core part of the project. The development of the Britomart Transport Centre has led to the increase in rail mode share to the City Centre. In 2012 there were 6,055 alightings at Britomart in the morning peak compared to 1,012 in 2003.

72.

A detailed analysis of the increase in rail patronage to the City Centre (and across the rail network) is summarised in Section 4. Table 3.1 summarises the rail systems peak hour capacity in 2003 (pre Britomart) for 2011 and 2016 when rail electrification will have been completed. The rail electrification project entails the introduction of 57 new electric trains providing high quality, quiet and energy efficient rail travel with increased frequencies and faster services.

26

Table 3.1: Auckland peak hour rail capacity

Type of carriages SA SD ADL ADK EMU Silver Fern SX Total Fleet Seated Standing (1.4/1 pre-electric trains, 1.7/1 post electric trains) Total
Source: AT data and analysis

2003 20 19 4 43 1,264 506

2011 81 23 20 18 6 148 3,798 1,519

2016 16 171 187 8,892 6,224

Peak hour passenger capacity delivered (arrivals at Britomart)

1,770

5,317

15,116

73.

Since the opening of Britomart in 2003 there has been a tripling in morning peak rail capacity. The rail electrification and new electric trains will deliver a further doubling of morning peak capacity.

Northern Busway
74. 75. The Northern Busway (Busway) runs for 8.7kms from Constellation Drive, North Shore to the Auckland Harbour Bridge. The Busway opened in stages, with the carriageway and first two stations at Albany and Constellation Drive opening in 2005 and the full Busway opening in 2008. It comprises five stations with park-and-ride facilities at Albany and Constellation Drive. The capacity of the Albany park and ride was doubled to 1,100 cars in 2012. The Busway service runs all day, every day, between Albany and Britomart. Services are every five minutes during the three hour morning and evening peaks. Passengers using high frequency services generally do not refer to timetables. The Busway includes associated bus priority measures on linked routes including Fanshawe Street, providing access to the City Centre and feeder routes including Constellation Drive and Onewa Road.

76.

77.

Table 3.2: North Shore buses to the City Centre since 2005
Fanshawe Street Bus passengers Buses 2005 5,019 126 2006 5,697 148 2007 5,942 156 2008 6,618 162 2009 7,122 185 2010 7,570 178 2011 8,376 194 2012 7,750 199

Source: March Annual Auckland Region Screenline Survey, AC.

27

78. 79.

Table 3.2 above shows the number of buses and bus passengers entering the City Centre from the North Shore since 2005. In 2001, approximately 15,600 city bound person trips crossed the harbour bridge in the morning two hour peak. Around 11,000 trips were in private vehicles and 4,600 on buses. By 2011 the number of trips had increased to 17,000 and only 8,400 were by private vehicles and 8,600 were in buses. Motorists who may be travelling to destinations not well served by public transport are also better off as they experience less congestion north of the Harbour Bridge, due to the mode shift to buses. Bus ridership from the North Shore to the City Centre has exceeded APT forecasts (the modelling tool used for the Busway) by six to eight percent since the Busway opened. While the model has predicted the overall trend in ridership, it has underestimated the actuals achieved.

80.

Figure 3.3: Northern Busway, modelled and actual patronage

12,000

10,000 Forecast period begins Busway opened

AM peak patronage

8,000

6,000

4,000

2,000

0 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 2014

Actual patronage

APT model patronage

Source: AT data, business case

Source: March Annual Auckland Region Screenline Survey, AC; APT Model, AT. (NOTE: The full 5 station Busway opened in 2008 a 2 station service started operating in 2005 using motorway shoulder lanes)

Project DART (core network upgrade)

81. The DART Project comprised: Double-tracking the Western Line; reopening of the Onehunga Line; building the Manukau Line and upgrading the Newmarket Junction and station. This investment has been a key enabler of the growth in rail patronage and to optimise the benefit of the investment in Britomart. Rail patronage increased from 5,596,400 in 2006 to 10,837,630 in 2011.

82.

28

83.

The DART initiatives have allowed higher frequencies, increased reliability and faster journey times by rail. Combined with modern, safe and attractive rail stations, this has offered a better customer experience.

City Centre Bus Priorities

84. The City Centre bus priority initiatives include: Bus Priority Programme conversion of kerbside parking lanes into peak period bus lanes on major City Centre focused isthmus arterials. Simplification of City Centre bus routes - based on three Link1 bus routes and supporting services. This has led to significant patronage growth. The major bus routes into the City Centre Fanshawe Street, Symonds Street and Albert Street have significant bus priority measures in place: 85. Symonds Street has kerbside bus lanes (introduced from the late 1990s) Albert Street bus lanes (introduced in 2003 when Britomart opened) Fanshawe Street bus lanes provide inbound bus lanes to and from the Fanshawe Street on/off-ramp The Central Connector opened in 2006 and created a 24-hour bus priority corridor between Britomart and Grafton Station

The proportion of people using public transport on key bus priority corridors is shown in Table 3.3 below.

Table 3.3: Peak public transport mode share on City Centre bus priority corridors
People Surveyed (2012) Corridor Fanshawe Street Symonds Street Central Connector (Grafton Bridge) Public Transport 7,750 5,868 2,122 Private Vehicle 4,145 2,448 62 Total Surveyed 11,896 8,316 2,184 Mode Share Public Transport 65% 71% 97% Private Vehicle 35% 29% 3%

Source: March Annual Auckland Region Screenline Survey, AC.

86.

Extensive initiatives have been implemented to give buses priority in the City Centre, reflecting the important role buses play in providing access.

There are three Link bus services. The City Link runs from the newly developed Wynyard Quarter, along Queen St, up to K-Rd and then back down Queen Street. The Inner Link runs from the Britomart Train Station, out to Parnell, through Newmarket, along KRd, Ponsonby Rd, past Victoria Park and then back to Britomart via SkyCity. The Outer Link runs from Wellesley St, past the Universities, through Parnell, Newmarket, Epsom, Balmoral, Mt Eden, St Lukes, Mt Albert, out to the Meola Rd entrance to MOTAT, through Westmere, Herne Bay and then back to Wellesley St.

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Ferries
87. The ferry investment initiatives comprise the following: Downtown Ferry Terminal Upgrade Upgrade of Downtown Ferry Terminal to improve customer amenity and to cater for the increasing role of ferries. Ferry terminal upgrades Upgrade of Northcote Point, Birkenhead, Matiatia, and Bayswater ferry terminals. New ferry services - Comprising Half Moon Bay, Bayswater, Birkenhead, Northcote Point, Gulf Harbour, Pine Harbour; and West Harbour. 88. In the early 1990s, the only ferry services were to Devonport, Stanley Bay and Waiheke Island. Since then, new ferry services have been established to Bayswater, Northcote Point, Birkenhead, West Harbour, Pine Harbour, Half Moon Bay and Gulf Harbour. Table 3.4 demonstrates ferry patronage in the morning peak in 2003 and 2012. Further patronage growth can be achieved with new services to Beach Haven and Hobsonville Point.

89.

Table 3.4: Ferry patronage - morning 2 hour peak (7am-9am)

Origin Bayswater Birkenhead Devonport Gulf Harbour Half Moon Bay Northcote Point Pine Harbour Stanley Bay Waiheke Island West Harbour Total
2

Pax 2003 301 333 910 40 367 46 145 758 2,900

Pax 2012 317 273 1,018 120 591 91 206 169 806 121 3,712

2003-12 + (numerical) 16 -60 108 80 224 91 160 24 48 121 812

2003-12 + (per cent) 5.3% -18% 11.9% 200% 61% 347.8% 16.6% 6.3% 28%

Source: March Annual Auckland Region Screenline Survey, AC.

3.3 Key Actions Supporting the Road Network

90. The City Centre is becoming more congested. Between 2001 and 2012, the number of people entering the City Centre in private vehicles in the morning peak increased from 29,500 to 33,719 (14%). Even with this modest increase, the City Centre street network struggles to cope with traffic volumes, particularly in the afternoon peak on approaches to the motorway network. Accessibility for private vehicles, buses and freight vehicles, to and within the City Centre, is dependent on the roading network.

91.

Northcote Point was not counted in 2003 even though it had ferry services, hence the 2003 total would be an undercount.

30

Improvements to the City Centre and surrounding road networks

92. Central Motorway Junction (CMJ) upgrade - Provided an extra lane on SH16 from Newton Rd to Western Springs, a new Nelson St off-ramp with safer left hand exit and direct access to the Port to and from the north, avoiding Fanshawe Street. Grafton Gully upgrade Extended the North Western Motorway to Stanley Street and removed the dog leg at Stanley Street/The Strand/Parnell Rise intersection. Newmarket Viaduct replacement Replaced earthquake risk viaduct and added a fourth southbound lane as far as Greenlane. Victoria Park Tunnel New northbound tunnel allowing all four lanes of the viaduct to be used by southbound traffic. Widened motorway through St Marys Bay to 10 lanes and city bound bus lane.

Impacts of actions
93. Despite the roading initiatives to address congestion, modelling (undertaken for the Integrated Transport Programme3) indicates that congestion on the road network will continue to increase and conditions will worsen significantly after 2021, shown in Figure 3.4 below. Increased transport demand means the road network also suffers from unreliable levels of service at peak time.

Figure 3.4: Congestion on the road network

Source: Integrated Transport Programme 2012 (high growth scenario)

3.4 Key Actions Supporting Walking and Cycling

Pedestrian and cycle networks
94. The number of active mode trips, i.e. walking and cycling, (based on an average working weekday) within the City Centre increased from 20,122 in 2006 to 45,139 in 2011, and is modelled to increase to 70,853 trips by 2021 (ART3). These numbers exclude the tens of thousands of pedestrians who circulate within the City Centre after arriving on other forms

Draft Integrated Transport Programme 2012

31

of transport, or who are City Centre residents. 95. The quality of the pedestrian and cycling experience in the City Centre has been improved through: Streetscape upgrades e.g. along Queen St, High St and Lorne St, and the introduction of new shared spaces e.g. Elliot St, Fort St, Jellicoe St. Changes to traffic signal phasing including double-phase pedestrian crossings on Queen St and the introduction of countdown indicators at major intersections. Major improvements into and within Wynyard Quarter, including the new Wynyard Crossing Bridge for pedestrians and cyclists. The CCMP includes initiatives to improve walking and cycling: the creation of new shared space, more green time for pedestrians and a new pedestrian and cycle access on the Wellesley Street Bridge to Grafton Road. Enhancing the pedestrian environment will continue to attract more people to the City Centre, encourage them to stay longer, support business and retail, and create a vibrant atmosphere.

96.

97.

3.5 Future Actions to Support City Centre Access

Public Transport
98. Auckland Transport has developed a three-year public transport transformational change programme to move towards the APs patronage growth targets. It comprises the following key elements: 1. Connected public transport network. A simplified, layered public transport network with a much expanded frequent bus network. Developed in conjunction with McCormick Rankin Cagney (MRC), this will enable integrated service design and improved linking of services and modes. Targeted implementation 2013-2015. 2. Integrated ticketing and fares. Integrated ticketing will allow upgraded HOP cards to be used for public transport trips in Auckland with implementation completed in 2012/2013. This will be followed by integrated fares, meaning that a point-to-point public transport trips will cost the same irrespective of the modes (or mix of modes) and transfers required to complete the journey. Together they will enable seamless journeys and easy connections. Targeted implementation 2013/2014. 3. Electric train fleet provides significant extra train capacity which in turn enables further improvements in bus/rail connectivity, as part of a connected public transport network. Targeted completion 2016. 99. In addition, the Regional Land Transport Programme and Long Term Plan provide for a number of important projects to improve City Centre access, as identified in Table 3.6.

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Draft Auckland Regional Public Transport Plan

100. The draft Regional Public Transport Plan effectively sets out the Connected Public Transport Network. It introduces a simpler, better connected public transport network that is more attractive to people not currently using public transport. 101. The current bus network has developed incrementally, with each change focusing on a particular sub-area or issue. As a result, Aucklands current bus network is complex and highly variable, discouraging public transport use. 102. The new network involves changing the way that Aucklanders catch the bus or train including the need for some passengers to transfer at key interchanges. In return, the improved public transport system will offer more frequent and reliable transport over a longer time span, seven days a week, and easier access to more destinations. 103. This builds on the momentum being delivered by recent improvements and improvements in progress, including rail electrification, new electric trains, and integrated ticketing. The intention is to do this in a way that better meets customer requirements, while making best use of the current transport resources. 104. The result will be a new integrated network structure for Aucklands public transport system, providing a city-wide connected and inter-linked network of frequent and reliable services. This will improve levels of service through better utilisation of resources, delivering more frequent services and more travel choices in a cost-effective manner. It will also support Aucklands future growth by providing a permanent network of frequent services and transport infrastructure that will provide greater certainty for land use development decisions. 105. With the new bus network, the peak bus fleet will reduce by about 13% (139 buses) between 2012 to 2022. The number of peak hour buses in the City Centre will reduce by 23% (88 buses), with the CRL. 106. The changes to the network structure represent a significant change in the way that public transport services are delivered in Auckland. Implementation across the region will require a detailed assessment of the specific route structure in each area. To achieve this, a staged implementation is proposed, over a three year period: Stage 1 (2013/14): South Auckland bus services Stage 2 (2014/15): North Shore and Isthmus bus services Stage 3 (2015/16): Western and Eastern bus services

107. To facilitate these changes, a number of associated improvements will be required, described in detail below. Beyond 2016, significant further improvements will be enabled by the implementation of the CRL. 108. The improved bus network means a significant increase in the proportion of Aucklands population with easy access to frequent public transport services4: The proportion of residents living within 500 metres of frequent service will increase from 14.4 per cent to 38.6 per cent.

The new service network structure is built around a core network of frequent services. These include the existing rapid transit services on rail and the Northern Busway, supplemented with a number of high-frequency bus routes connecting major centres. The frequent service network will deliver at least a 15-minute service operating all day (initially from 7am-7pm, with reduced frequencies outside those hours). It will be complemented by a network of connector routes that operate all day at half-hourly frequencies. In addition, a supporting network of local services, peak-only services, and targeted services will cater for specific market needs.

33

The proportion of Aucklands employment located within 500 metres of a frequent service increases from 40.4 per cent to 59.6 per cent.

109. The new bus network will support rail: As a feeder system for the rail network (discussed in detail in Section 6). As a key public transport mode for areas not served by rail, particularly the Central Isthmus and North Shore.

Bus network in the City Centre

110. Buses are expected to continue to be a significant public transport mode for City Centre access, moving about two-thirds of all public transport trips, particularly from the North Shore and other areas not directly served by rail. With the CRL, this proportion is not expected to drop below 50 per cent. Bus patronage will increase into the City Centre at peak times above current levels. 111. While the 2016 bus network5 improves City Centre bus access, more can be done, especially to operations. Specific actions to address these issues as part of the implementation of the Connected Public Transport Network are: 1. North Shore buses - Currently both western and northern buses use Albert Street. Increasing numbers of North Shore and Western buses are conflicting in the afternoon peak where average bus speeds, are around 7 km/h in bus lanes. A solution is provided in the new bus network plan, creating an east-west bus priority route in the City Centre on Wellesley Street. A corridor management plan is under way for Wellesley Street and $1.5 million has been allocated to implement this recommendation. 2. Western buses - Western buses are being re-routed reducing outbound bus trips in the afternoon peak by an average of five minutes. 3. Northern Express buses - Final changes to the road network around the Victoria Park Tunnel and the reopening of the Wellington Street on-ramp provide the opportunity to consider reallocating road space on Fanshawe Street to buses (where buses carry 65 per cent of the people movements along Fanshawe Street in the morning peak). 4. Other measures - Some other limited interventions are possible to avoid key bus congestion points, such as Symonds Street between Grafton Bridge and Wellesley Street.

Road Network Access to the City Centre

112. The demand for travel (person trips per day) in Auckland over the next 30 years is expected to increase by around 50 per cent over current levels. Freight and commercial trips per day are expected to more than double. 113. The City Centre requires reliable and efficient movement of freight, particularly for the Port. The New Zealand Transport Agency (NZTA) and AT are undertaking a joint study into short-term to long-term improvements to freight reliability to the Port, including greater use
5

From the MRC Public Transport Network Development Plan 2012

34

of rail freight. 114. Effective access for business-related deliveries and vehicle movements will continue to be vital, concentrated primarily on the arterial road network and links to the strategic road network.

Parking network in the City Centre

115. Four critical policy changes are relevant to the future parking provision in the City Centre and City Fringe: 1. A standardised maximum in the draft Unitary Plan of one car park per 200m2 of new development in the City Centre. 2. A maximum setting in the draft Unitary Plan of one car park for every 60m2 of commercial development in the City Fringe (Newmarket, Grafton, Newton etc). 3. A significant expansion of resident parking schemes in the City Fringe. 4. Parking developments being a discretionary activity. 116. The City Centre will have parking minimums applied throughout the area at a consistent rate and no minimum parking requirements. 117. The draft Unitary Plan proposes to change minimum parking requirements to maximums in the City Fringe, potentially reducing the number of car parking spaces in the City Fringe. Residential Parking Permit Schemes6 will be expanded, which will discourage commuters from parking in the City Fringe. 118. Non-ancillary parking buildings are proposed to be a discretionary activity in the draft Unitary Plan, with relatively challenging assessment criteria, including consistency with polices on commuter parking.

3.6 Summary of completed and planned actions to resolve City Centre access issues
119. Table 3.5 and Table 3.6 summarise the completed and committed projects to address City Centre access issues.

A Residential Parking Permit provides residents with an exemption from time restrictions that apply within the Residential Parking Zone. The purpose of the Residential Parking Zone is to reduce the impact of commuter parking on residents, improve parking availability for residents and their guests and reduce traffic congestion in residential streets.

35

Table 3.5: Completed Projects

Project Description Results/ Impacts Cost Year Organisation Responsible

STATE HIGHWAYS Grafton Gully upgrade Extended North Western Motorway to Stanley Street. Eliminated dog leg at Stanley Street/ The Strand/ Parnell Rise intersection Central Motorway Junction (CMJ) upgrade Additional southbound lane Hobson Street to Newmarket Viaduct; completed motorway to motorway connections Harbour Bridge upgrade To extend the life of the Harbour Bridge clip-on lanes Western Ring Route Upper Harbour Motorway, Mt Roskill Extension, Manukau Extension, Manukau Harbour Crossing Newmarket Viaduct replacement Replaced earthquake risk viaduct and added 4th southbound lane as far as Greenlane Victoria Park Tunnel New northbound tunnel allowing all four lanes of the viaduct to be used by southbound traffic. Widened motorway through St Marys Bay to 10 lanes and citybound bus lane PUBLIC TRANSPORT Auckland Bus Priority Programme Conversion of kerbside parking lanes into peak period bus lanes on major City Centre-focused Isthmus arterials Significant speed improvements to bus services on key approach routes to the City Centre, leading to gains in bus patronage Catalyst for the revitalisation of Aucklands rail network. Four-fold increase in rail patronage in eight-years Substantially made journeys easier by coordinating the management and operation of local roads and state highways $11m 1998 ACC/AT Improved access to the port, especially for heavy commercial vehicles; improved road access to eastern side of City Centre New motorway links reduced traffic on City Centre streets. Part 1 of Harbour Bridge/ Southern Motorway capacity balancing Improved route security and resilience on key roading lifeline Provides alternative route to main north south motorway network Part 2 of Harbour Bridge/ Southern Motorway capacity balancing Final stage of Harbour Bridge/ Southern Motorway capacity balancing $70m 2003 NZTA

$226m

2006

NZTA

$85m $810m $230m $350m

2011 2011 2012 2012

NZTA NZTA NZTA NZTA

Britomart Transport Centre New downtown bus/rail interchange in City Centre returning rail to the City Centre after an absence of 73 years Joint Traffic Operations Centre Projects include: Regional Route Optimisation, Incident Response Capability, Additional CCTV coverage, Real-time Travel Information (CBD to Airport route)

$209m

2003

ACC ($20m from central government) NZTA/AT

2003

36

Project Description

Results/ Impacts

Cost

Year

Organisation Responsible

Rail service improvements progressive increase in rail service from basic daytime Monday to Saturday service to closer to a frequent every day service

Each service improvement was met with a corresponding growth in patronage from underlying latent demand New and improved ferry services resulted in growth in ferry patronage

OPEX

2003-2012

ARTA/AT

New ferry services from Half Moon Bay, Bayswater, Birkenhead, Northcote Point, Gulf Harbour, Pine Harbour, West Harbour

OPEX

2003-2012

ARTA/AT

Northern Busway 6.2 km of bi-directional, and 2.5km of uni-directional busway; five busway stations; two park-and-rides; plus associated bus priority measures on both sides of the harbour North Shore bus service review - 2008

Resulted in a significant increase in people accessing the City Centre by public transport 40% increase in peak bus service in conjunction with opening of Northern Busway Ongoing improvements to bus service culminating in a maximum headway of 15 minutes at any time between Pakuranga and Britomart Significantly reduced peak bus travel times from south/east to City Centre and much improved bus service to Auckland Hospital and university health sciences campus Built the core rail network infrastructure to make best use of Britomart investment; led to significant rail patronage growth Provides rolling stock to meet growing demand for passenger rail between Britomart opening and the electric train fleet entering operation Allowed for additional ferry services to be introduced, e.g. West Harbour, Pine Harbour, Gulf Harbour

$294m

2008

NZTA/NSCC/ACC/ARTA

OPEX

2008

ARTA

Botany/Howick service improvements

OPEX

2008-2012

ARTA/AT

Central Connector Upgrade of route from Britomart to Newmarket via Grafton to 24-hour bus lanes (Grafton Bridge 7am-7pm weekdays). Upgrade of Grafton Bridge. Bus stop, pedestrian and urban amenity improvements

$42.7m

2009

ACC

Project DART (core network upgrade) Double-tracking Western Line; reopen Onehunga Line; Manukau Line and Newmarket Junction upgrade

$600m

2010

KiwiRail

Interim rolling stock Upgrade of ex-Perth DMUs + 24 3-6 push-pull loco hauled trains made up of ex British Mark II carriages

$171m

2010

ARTA

Downtown Ferry Terminal upgrade Upgrade of Downtown Ferry Terminal to improve customer amenity and to cater for the increasing role of ferries

2010

ARTA/AT

7 8

NSCC refers to the former North Shore City Council; ARTA refers to the Auckland Regional Transport Authority ACC refers to the former Auckland City Council

37

Project Description

Results/ Impacts

Cost

Year

Organisation Responsible

Ferry terminal upgrades Upgrade of Northcote Point, Birkenhead, Matiatia, and Bayswater ferry terminals Central Flagship Project

Provided quality infrastructure to match upgrades in ferry service frequency and capacity Simplification of City Centre bus routes based on three link bus routes and supporting services. Led to significant patronage growth OPEX

2010

AT

2011

ARTA/AT

WALKING AND CYCLING Increase of the pedestrian level of service in key locations in the City 1. Centre, such as Queen Street. This has included streetscape upgrades, changes to traffic signal phasing (for example Barnes Dance), the removal of left turn slip lanes, low speed zones and the new shared spaces. Other more recent pedestrian improvements along Queen Street include the doublephase pedestrian crossings and reduced speed environment. TOTAL COSTS (incomplete) Pedestrian numbers along Queen Street increased by an impressive 25 9 per cent during the weekday period $40m 2007 ACC

$2,567.7m

Source: AT analysis

Figures are between 2007 and 2008, CCMP

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Table 3.6: Committed Projects

Project Description STATE HIGHWAYS Western Ring Route remaining sections (Waterview Tunnel, NW Motorway upgrade) PUBLIC TRANSPORT New ferry service to Beach Haven/ Hobsonville New bus network three year programme to completely redesign Auckland's bus network OPEX OPEX 2012-2013 2013-2016 AT AT Combined service Hobsonville starts early 2013 serving new area which will grow to 8-9,000 residents; Beach Haven starts 2013 New network integrates with, and makes maximum use of, additional capacity provided by electrification/ new electric trains to use each public transport mode to maximum benefit Major improvement in public transport access to a metropolitan centre $1.4b 2019 NZTA Completes Western Ring Route and widens North Western Motorway; provides direct motorway standard route from airport to City Centre for the first time Cost Year Organisation Responsible Comments / Effectiveness

2.

Sylvia Park bus lanes Bus access improvements to Sylvia Park metropolitan centre, bypassing Mt Wellington Motorway Interchange, including new Sylvia Park bus interchange Grafton Gully cycleway - The current number-one cycle project within New Zealand New rail station at Parnell new station, approximately 500m from Auckland University

$22m

2014

AT

2014 $19.2m 2014

NZTA led; (AT/AC coordinate) AT

Includes gateway treatments on Upper Queen Street Bridge. This work has culminated into the development of the CMJ Walking and Cycle Masterplan document. The cycleway will connect the current Northwestern Cycleway with the City Centre Parnell Station will be attractive to workers in Parnell and Carlaw Park and will be the closest railway station to Auckland Universitys city campus. Pedestrian connections are planned to maximise access to Parnell, the Domain and through the Carlaw Park business park to Auckland University. This includes a developer provided walk/cycle route to the station through the next stage of the business park development as a consent condition. This will connect to the route being provided by AC parks through the Domain to the station at one end and the existing through site link the first stage of the commercial development. Electrification of 75km of Auckland rail network, acquisition of 57 3-car electric trains and construction of a stabling and maintenance facility at Wiri Major upgrade in length and quality of bus priority on Dominion Road, including significant bus stop and urban amenity upgrades Major public transport improvement in part of Auckland with low public transport use and poor public transport infrastructure

Rail electrification Dominion Road bus priority upgrade South-eastern Busway New busway from Panmure Station to Botany, including major upgrade to Panmure bus/rail interchange

$1.1b $47m $650m

2016 2016 2021+

AT/ KiwiRail AT AT

39

Project Description CYCLING Waterfront Aucklands walkway and cycleway - From Herne Bay in the west to Teal Park in the east 3. Beach Road connect the Grafton Gully cycleway and Tamaki Drive Improvements to cycling infrastructure within the City Centre - for example, advance boxes at key intersections Future walking and cycling improvements as indicated in the CCMP

Cost

Year

Organisation Responsible

Comments / Effectiveness

By 2015

AT

This project is at the investigation stage

By 2015

AT

Design work is currently being undertaken Includes the boulevarding of Quay Street, a new pedestrian and cycle access on the Wellesley Street Bridge to Grafton Road, and cycle lanes along Nelson Street. These projects will significantly contribute to the Auckland or regional cycle network within the City Centre On-going Waitemata Local Board funded proposals to encourage walking and cycling to and from the City Centre and within the City Fringe areas. Includes the proposed ability to walk (and cycle) from Pt Chevalier through the City Centre to Orakei Basin. For instance, the continuation of boardwalk path alongside the railway line over Hobson Bay to Tamaki Drive is currently being investigated. Waterfront Auckland has committed $5.8 million to the construction of a key part of this project from the Harbour Bridge, around Westhaven Marina and through to Wynyard Quarter

Ongoing

AT

Ongoing

Various

TOTAL COSTS Source: AT analysis

$2.260b

40

3.7 Conclusion
The key conclusions in respect of the Ministers statement requesting a review of CRL with respect to: Demonstration of commitment to resolving current CBD access issues, for example by improving bus operations and addressing capacity issues, are as follows: 120. Current City Centre access issues summary: Reliability of travel times, a key driver of public transport use, continues to be an issue, especially in the evening peak. Projected continued population growth will put pressure on already heavily used road network capacity and on public transport services, and create increased inter-peak congestion, affecting efficient movement of both people and goods. Competition for road space is most intense within the City Centre, with private vehicles, commercial vehicles, trucks and buses, and a limited number of cyclists all using the same roads to access and move around the City Centre. There is little ability to provide additional road traffic capacity, meaning future City Centre growth must be accommodated in large part by public transport, in ways that is mindful of the heavy pedestrian traffic using City Centre streets. 121. Recent initiatives to resolve City Centre access issues summary: A comprehensive, staged, multi-modal programme of initiatives is underway and/or planned to resolve City Centre access issues. These are summarised in Table 5 and Table 6 and specifically include actions to encourage an increase in public transport usage and a consequential reduction in the share of private vehicle use. Specific public transport actions underway to support city centre access include: o Connected public transport network, including a much expanded frequent bus network targeted for implementation in 2013-2015/16; o Integrated ticketing and fares to enable seamless journeys and easy connections. Implementation is underway with completion targeted for 2014; o An electric train fleet upgrade targeted for completion in 2016, which will provide significant extra train capacity and improved bus/rail connectivity. 122. Initiatives to improve bus operations: The improvements underway to the bus network will increase the proportion of residents living within 500 metres of frequent services from 14.4 percent to 38.6 per cent by 2015. The proportion of Aucklands employment located within 500 metres of a frequent bus service will increase from 40.4 per cent to 59.6 per cent. A number of other initiatives are underway to improve the efficiency of bus services to 41

North Shore and western suburbs from the City Centre. For example, western buses are being re-routed reducing outbound bus trips in the afternoon people by an average of five minutes. 123. Capacity issues: Restricted street capacity in the City Centre limits the capacity to significantly increase the number of buses required to meet the project increased demand for improved public transport services to-from the City Centre. For example, currently both western and northern buses using Albert Street are conflicting in the afternoon peak where average bus speeds are around 7km/h in bus lanes. A corridor management plan is provided in the new bus network plan, but is unable to provide a complete solution. The CRL will do for rail what completion in 2015/16 of the Western Ring Route, with the Waterview Connection, will do for the road network; it will free up access to, and through, the tightly constrained City Centre and boost its economic potential. .

42

4 Rail patronage, intensification and city centre growth from investment

Highlights
Rail patronage has grown from 2.8 million trips in 2004 to 10.4 million trips (excluding Rugby World Cup travel) in 2011. Historically, business cases for public transport investment in Auckland have underestimated the patronage changes resulting from the investment: o o Britomart daily patronage in 2011 is 40 per cent higher than estimated in the APB&B Study. The Nothern Busway has exceeded the original Auckland Passenger Transport (APT) model estimates by 6 - 8 per cent. Onehunga morning boardings are over 65 per cent higher than original estimates and the daily patronage is around 15 per cent higher than what was originally modelled. Current patronage on rail is tracking above forecasts in the 2006 Rail Development Plan (RDP) the business case for electrification and new electric trains despite the fact that the RDP envisaged implementation by 2011 and the service improvements are yet to be implemented.

There are strong correlations between service improvements and patronage increases including: o A strong, positive statistical correlation between increased numbers of morning peak rail services and growth in patronage. This appears to be a much stronger relationship than existed prior to Britomart being completed. Rail station redevelopment being integral to maintaining patronage growth. In a number of cases, station redevelopment has led to significant increases in patronage.

Private investment has followed rail investment including: o The development of the Britomart Precinct which has the lowest vacancy rates and some of the highest lease rates in the city centre. Britomart has not only seen relocations from within the city centre, it has also attracted relocations from the city centre fringe and outside the city centre. Employment growth in the Britomart Precinct area has performed strongly relative to the city centre, and in 2009/10, during the economic contraction, Britomart outperformed both the city centre and the wider Auckland economy. With the exception of the Onehunga and Inner Southern Lines (both of which have a high proportion of industrial and commercial land), population growth in rail corridor Census Area Units (CAUs) has equalled or bettered non-rail corridor CAUs. Population growth along the rail line CAUs in the outer lines is demonstrably higher than population growth in non-rail CAUs. Building consents for development along rail corridors have been almost 50 per cent higher than consents for development along non rail corridors from 2006-2011. More intensive housing typologies such as apartments and townhouses are showing strong growth along rail corridors. Townhouse/terraced house development along rail corridors in the last five years has been almost 450 per cent higher than outside of the rail corridors.

43

4.1 Overview
The purpose of this section is to outline the impacts of rail investments since 2000 on rail patronage, with particular reference to whether or not the projected patronage from investment business cases was achieved. In addition, this section looks at the level of intensification near rail that has taken place as a result of past and current rail investments, with a particular focus on the city centre.

4.2 Overall evidence of rail patronage increases

124. Aucklands rail patronage increased from 2.8 million in 2003/04, the year in which Britomart opened, to 10.4 million in 2011 (excluding a one-off patronage boost from Rugby World Cup 2011). During this period, rail patronage increased by around 280 per cent while the citys population increased by 15 per cent. 125. These rail figures start from a very low base of 2.2 rail trips per capita per annum in 2003, rising to 7.3 rail trips per capita per annum in 2011. This is still very low by international standards (and when compared with Wellington). By comparison, in 1992, Perth only had 7 million rail trips with a population of 1.4 million,1 or 4.95 rail trips per capita per year, prior to the electrification of its rail network. After electrification and the addition of new rail lines including the provision of park-and-ride and feeder bus services, it had 60.7 million rail trips2 and a population of 1.74 million,3 or 34.9 rail trips per capita per year. 126. Figure 4.1 below, comprising Ministry of Transport data, demonstrates how quickly the Auckland rail patronage is growing when compared to the well-established Wellington rail network (which serves a lower population base, but is more concentrated in terms of origins and destinations). 127. A key highlight is an increase in morning peak rail patronage to the city centre from 1,012 in 2003, prior to Britomart opening, to 6,055 in 2012, an increase of 498 per cent. All day boardings at Britomart have grown more strongly than peak boardings, with all-day boardings increasing from 1,765 to 12,575, an increase of 612 per cent across the same period. 128. While peak period trips alighting at Britomart have increased by just 14 per cent from 4,900 to 5,603 between 2008 and 2011, rail daily boardings increased by 50 per cent from 28,726 to 43,068 over this same period. This shows that the rail system role should not just be seen as delivering peak period accessibility to the city centre but as delivering improved accessibility to rail-served areas both at the peak and across the day.

4102.0 Australian Social Trends, Australian Bureau of Statistics, 1996, http://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/2f762f95845417aeca25706c00834efa/924739f180990e34ca2570ec0073cdf7!OpenDocu ment, accessed 17 April 2012. Transperth Patronage, Public Transport Authority of Western Australia, http://www.pta.wa.gov.au/NewsandMedia/TransperthPatronage/tabid/218/Default.aspx, accessed 17 April 2012. 3218.0 Regional Population Growth, Australia, 2010-11, Australian Bureau of Statistics, http://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/Products/3218.0~201011~Main+Features~Western+AustraliaOpenDocument#PARALIN K4, accessed on 17 April 2012.

44

Figure 4.1: Annual rail passenger boardings (millions)

14,000,000 12,000,000 10,000,000

Boardings

8,000,000 6,000,000 4,000,000 2,000,000 -

Wellington
Source: Metlink, AT.

Auckland

129. After ten years of sustained year-on-year rail patronage growth, data from 2012 is showing a slow-down in the rate of patronage growth across the RTN both the North Shore Busway and the rail network. Some of this is related to comparing this years patronage to last years surge in patronage caused by the Rugby World Cup and its associated events in 2011. In the case of the rail network, capacity constraints at peak times on the system limits growth in additional peak rail commuters. Closure of the rail network on some weekends to enable electrification is also having an impact. The commissioning of the electric train fleet in 2014 will provide an immediate capacity and reliability benefit.

45

Contribution of rail to the Auckland transport task

130. Aside from the nominal rail patronage numbers, rail and bus are taking an increasing share of the total transport task within Auckland, shown in Figure 4.2 below. Figure 4.2: Estimated mode shares, morning peak travel to Auckland city centre

100% Share of total trips into CBD

Britomart

Northern Busway

80% 56% 60%

40% 35% 20% 9% 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012

0% 1990

Train share

Bus share

Private vehicle share

Source: AT data, PwC calculations.

131. Breaking these mode shares out further, car travel heavily dominates short distance trips, but the further out a city centre-bound journey starts, the higher the public transport mode share, showing that the RTN is critical to minimising private vehicle growth for the city centre commuter trips. Figure 4.3 below shows projected trips to the City Centre by public transport and private vehicle in 2041.

46

Figure 4.3: 2041 Trips to the City Centre by public transport and private vehicle (by origin)

Key:
Public transport: blue Private vehicle: purple

Source: ART3 model projection for 2041, AT.

47

132. Thirty one percent of morning peak rail trips originate from within the Isthmus4. It appears public transport demand is weaker closer to the city centre and therefore, to maximise the returns from investing in the CRL, consideration should be given to more emphasis on developing interventions in these catchments5. There are three factors to consider when addressing this issue: The impact that journeys from further away have on the road network if the mode choice is a private vehicle. The effects of walk-in catchments on inner city stations. The screenline is around the city centre and this does not account for patronage growth in the city fringe, outside of the screenline.

133. Journeys originating further away from the city centre spend longer time periods on/in the transport system and, as such, place more demands on infrastructure resources. Figure 4.4 below shows the projected number of journeys into the city centre by origin in the morning peak. The growth in demand from the Western and Southern growth areas are longer distance rail journeys. Fig 4.4 Origin sectors for morning peak rail trips to City Centre 2021 - 2041

Source: ART Model projections AT

134. At the margin, journeys originating further out have the potential to cause congestion sequentially at key choke points on the citys motorway and key arterial road networks as the journey progresses. The rationale for reducing vehicles making longer journeys is that although these cars are smaller in number they interact with more of the congestion points on the networks. By successfully converting many of the longer vehicle journeys to rail, vehicles heading into congested points are reduced, which should help to increase traffic flows and speeds. This would potentially leave vehicle journeys to the city centre,
4

The Auckland Isthmus is the section of the Auckland Region between the Waitemat and Manukau harbours, stretching from Rosebank and New Lynn in the west and to Panmure in the East. The southern boundary is at Otahuhu. 5 A public transport catchment is the area from which passengers are derived. Catchments can vary by mode, frequency of service, and amount of segregated right of way.

48

originating closer to the city centre, to experience better traffic conditions for the duration of their journeys (other things being equal). 135. Long distance commuting from outer suburbs is more attractive by rail, and is beyond the walking and cycling thresholds. Congestion on the road network produces some time savings and convenience for rail over private vehicle and bus travel for outer suburb commuters. For example, Express bus services from Papakura to the city centre via the motorway have been reduced due to a decline in bus patronage, and a demonstrated mode preference for rail.

Bus and rail mode switching

136. One feature of the trends is the extent to which rail patronage growth has been fed by people moving from bus to rail rather than from car to rail, as shown below in Table 4.1. Table 4.1: City centre morning peak public transport patronage
Area/mode North Shore bus Other bus Rail Ferry Total 1986 5,917 17,021 731 1,087 24,756 2003 5,072 18,254 1,012 2,900 27,238 2011 8,376 14,478 5,603 3,655 32,382 + - 2003-2011 +3,304 -3,506 +4,591 +755 +5,144 % + - 2003-2011 +65% -19% +454% +26% +19%

Source: Transport Monitoring Update, report to the AC Transport Committee, 6 September 2011.

137. An important question is whether the growth in rail patronage at the expense of bus patronage represents a net improvement in the efficiency and value for money in the Auckland transport system. Such mode switches are desirable for a number of reasons: At the individual commuter level a change in mode signals that rail is more desirable either through a faster or more reliable service, a better connection between origin and destination or other less tangible features. At the network level, the increasing effectiveness of the rail services at the expense of competing bus services has allowed the reorganisation of the bus network to improve its overall efficiency and integration with all other modes (see Section 6): o The net impact of this reorganisation means that Aucklands RTN, which is aimed at delivering commuters into key employment hubs with maximum efficiency, now does not have to compete for road space with private vehicles thereby increasing overall network efficiency and improving network resilience.

138. The mode switching has been in part the result of significant investments, which are outlined below in Section 4.3. A critical question, however, is whether such mode switches have been economically efficient. The question of efficiency depends on whether public transport modes were reaching a point where investment was required regardless, and the investment made was the most efficient long-term investment. The efficiency of the mode switches is difficult to assess at a specific point in time. That said: a. The ability to reorganise the bus network is the direct result of rail investment and the current mode switching trends. b. The City Centre Future Access Study will provide an indication of the on-going cost-effectiveness of the mode switching trends. 49

139. A variety of rail investments have contributed parts of the rail patronage increase. The following section outlines the projected rail patronage from the investments and what happened in practice.

4.3 Patronage changes linked to investment

Britomart
140. This section compares the daily and morning two-hour peak patronage estimate (derived from patronage modelling undertaken by Beca6 during the development of the case for investing in Britomart in 2001) with the observed patronage of Britomart between 2004 and 2011. Britomart Patronage Model 141. In 2001, Beca developed two-hour morning peak and daily patronage projections for Britomart using the Britomart Patronage Model based on outputs from the Auckland Passenger Transport (APT) model. These projections are shown in Table 4.2 below. The APT model used was still under development and it was acknowledged at the time that while the model is operable, it is in its infancy as a working analysis tool and, as with all such models, is bound to have a certain amount of teething corrections (Beca, 2001). 142. The model runs were based on a network consisting of full rail network development except Light Rail Transit (LRT), as contemplated by the Passenger Transport Action Plan (PTAP), new rolling stock and services, extended operations hours, North Shore Busway and Central Area Corridor operational and bus feeder services to key rail stations. Table 4.2: Britomart Patronage Model projection 2001
Scenario Daily rail patronage Two-hour morning peak boardings Two-hour morning peak alightings Two-hour morning peak total 2011 18,000 1,123 3,293 4,420 2021 21,800 1,501 4,154 5,655

Source: Waitemata Waterfront Interchange Patronage: Note to the Directors of Infrastructure Auckland, Jane Simmonds, 20 June 2001.

Observed patronage at Britomart 143. The most reliable observed patronage data for Britomart comes from the annual patronage survey7, conducted on a single weekday this is recorded on a daily and two-hour morning peak. The most recent daily patronage survey was undertaken in May 2011. This survey counted 25,112 passengers travelling through Britomart to either board or alight services during that day.

Beca developed model projections in 2001 for Britomart using the Britomart Patronage Model, based on outputs from the APT model. 7 The annual patronage survey is a count of people boarding and alighting by time of day at each station on the network. It is undertaken in May each year by AT.

50

Table 4.3: Britomart observed patronage 2004-2011

Year 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Daily boarding and alighting 6,948 9,790 12,267 13,345 17,190 19,713 20,793 25,112 900 6,200 7,100 AM peak boarding AM peak alighting AM peak total

Source: Annual patronage survey, AT.

Daily patronage comparison 144. The daily use of Britomart has significantly exceeded the projection generated by the 2001 Britomart Patronage Model:

Observed daily patronage in 2011 (25,112 passengers) was almost 40 per cent higher than the model estimate (of 18,000 passengers) Observed daily patronage in 2011 also exceeded the models estimate of patronage for 2021 by over 15 per cent The observed growth in daily patronage between 2010 and 2011 of 4,319 passengers was 519 people more than growth predicted by the model to take place between 2011 and 2021.

Figure 4.5: Britomart modelled and actual boardings

30,000 Daily boardings and alightings 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 2003
Britomart opened Forecast period begins

2006

2009

2012

2015

2018

2021

Actual patronage
Source: AT, APB&B Study

APT model patronage

51

Two-hour morning peak patronage comparison 145. The comparison of actual versus forecast two-hour morning peak patronage (shown in Table 4.4 and Figure 4.6 below) tells the same story: Observed boardings and alightings in 2011 exceeded model projections for 2011 by 2,680 people or 61 per cent Observed 2011 morning peak patronage exceeded the 2021 projection by 1,445 people or 26 per cent The model predicted higher outbound morning patronage than has actually taken place but significantly underestimated inbound patronage. This is most likely due to the model not accurately predicting mode shift behaviour.

Table 4.4: Britomart two-hour morning peak patronage actual vs projected

Beca modelled pax Boardings Alightings AM two-hour total 1,123 3,293 4,420 1,501 4,154 5,655 Observed pax 900 6,200 7,100

Source: Annual patronage survey 2011, AT; Britomart Patronage Model 2001, Beca.

Figure 4.6: Britomart two-hour morning peak patronage actual vs projected

8,000 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 0 Actual Inbound Actual Outbound Actual Total Model Inbound Model Outbound Model Total

Source: Annual station patronage survey 2011, AT; Britomart Patronage Model 2001, Beca.

Conclusion 146. The analysis shows that Britomart has significantly outperformed the modelled patronage projections produced in 2001 for all projections except outbound two-hour morning peak trips, which account for only a small proportion of total trips. This outperformance of model projections cannot be attributed to the 2001 model relying on a rail network that is significantly different to that which is now in place, as the model assumed the roll out of the PTAP rail network, which included double tracking of the Western Line, electrification and increased frequencies.

52

Rail Development Plan

147. The ARTA Rail Development Plan 2006 (RDP) was effectively the business case for electrification. Using the APT, it projected that rail patronage would reach 15.7 million passengers per annum in 2016 and, with a CRL in place, 30 million passengers per annum in 2030. Figure 4.7 shows how the actual patronage increase has trended in relation to the predictions in the APT model. Figure 4.7: Auckland observed and modelled rail patronage trends 1993-2023
18,000,000 16,000,000 14,000,000 12,000,000 10,000,000 8,000,000 6,000,000 4,000,000 2,000,000 1993 2006 Actual 2011 Actual 2016 Rail Development Plan 2030 Rail Development Plan 1994 1995
Forecast period begins 2006 Rail development plan completion

Observed APT model

Source: Auckland Transport analysis

148. While rail patronage increase is important, equally important is the fact that rail journeys are on average longer than bus journeys, meaning that peak rail trips which replace private vehicle trips have a disproportionately positive effect on vehicle kilometres travelled. Auckland Transport data shows that while the average Auckland bus journey is 6.7 kilometres, the average rail journey is over double this at 13.9 kilometres. Table 4.5 shows this impact on the proportion of public transport kilometres on the rail network. Table 4.5: Rail passenger kilometres
Rail passengers 5,000,000 10,837,635 15,700,000 30,000,000 % of public transport passengers 10.0% 15.6% 16.0% 20.0% % of public transport kilometres travelled 19.0% 27.7% 35.0% 40.0%

Source: Rail Development Plan, Auckland Regional Transport Authority 2006; AT data 2011.

149. The 2011 rail patronage figure of 10.8 million shows that even though this makes up 15.6 per cent of public transport trips, it provides for 27.7 per cent of public transport trip kilometres.

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

53

150. This result is tracking in line with targets to achieve 35 per cent of public transport vehicle kilometres on rail in 2016 and 40 per cent in 2030. 151. Rail patronage is tracking ahead of the projections in the RDP; 17.3 million annual rail boardings in 2016 are now projected. A key observation is that the forecasts in the RDP were premised on a 2011 implementation of electrification and new electric trains (i.e. in time for the Rugby World Cup 2011). Full services with the electric trains are targeted for late 2015/early 2016. 152. This can be further represented by the contribution rail makes to public transport across key screenline (city centre and Isthmus) points in the morning peak as shown in Table 4.6: Table 4.6: Public transport across screenlines
Screenline 70 City centre 50 Southern Isthmus 40 Western Isthmus Total Screenlines 50 and 40
8

Bus 24,115 4,205 2,966 7,171

Rail 6,055 2,340 2,233 4,573

Ferry 3,712 0 0 0

Rail as % of public transport 18% 36% 43% 39%

Source: Auckland Region Screenline Surveys March 2012, AC.

153. Rail customers comprise 18 per cent of the public transport users crossing the screenlines and alighting at Britomart in the morning peak; they make up 36 per cent of public transport users entering the Auckland Isthmus from the south and 43 per cent of public transport users entering the Auckland Isthmus from the west. A large number of passengers bound for the City Centre alight at Newmarket and Grafton stations, just outside of the screenline boundary.

Onehunga Branch Line

154. ARTA carried out an economic evaluation of re-opening the Onehunga Branch Line to passenger rail service9. The modelling work carried out using the APT model estimated the patronage projections shown in Table 4.7. Table 4.7: Onehunga Branch Line modelled and actual patronage
Boardings 2010 modelled boardings AM 103
10

2011 modelled boardings (interpolated) AM 134 All-day 447

2016 modelled boardings AM 288 660 All-day 960

2011 actual boardings AM 175 287 All-day 404 704

Station/Line Onehunga Station Onehunga Line

All-day 345

Source: APT model, Onehunga Branch Line background paper, Auckland Regional Transport Authority 2009.

155. The economic evaluation identified a benefit-cost ratio of 3.1 and a first year rate of return
8

The Screenline Survey measures travel across Auckland using survey points along a line. Screenlines enable measurement of changes in mode share and volume trends between different parts of Auckland. 9 Onehunga Branch Line Background Paper, Auckland Regional Transport Authority, 2009. 10 Includes Onehunga and Te Papapa stations as well as platform 3 at Penrose Station.

54

of 22.1 per cent on the ARTA capital costs of $4.1 million for the station and an annual $1.1 million for additional services. (The central government costs for this were incorporated within the agreed $600 million Developing Auckland Regional Transport (DART) project envelope.) 156. Table 4.7 above shows actual patronage on the line tracking ahead of the 2011 modelled boardings in the morning peak period but is running slightly behind for all-day boardings.

Manukau Branch Line

157. The Manukau Branch Line business case review suggested that a six-train per hour peak rail service (together with park-and-ride and a completed rail/bus interchange) would generate 1,400 boardings in the morning peak and annual patronage of 1.25 million in 2016, five years after the assumed opening date of 2011.11 158. As the line only opened in April 2012, it is too early to have sufficient data to show whether the use of the branchs only station at Manukau is tracking in line with projections. Development of the adjacent Manukau Bus Interchange and the opening of the initial stage of the Manukau Institute of Technology campuses currently being constructed above the station are expected to be key drivers of future patronage.

Determinants of patronage increases

159. A range of factors are relevant in evaluating rail patronage increases for individual stations.12 These include: Improvements to rail services Station upgrades Improvements to pedestrian accessibility Provision of park-and-ride Station location changes

Improvements to rail services 160. Figure 4.8 shows the relationship between patronage improvements and the increase in the rail service offering.

11 12

Manukau Rail Link: Review of Business Case, Conway Davy Ltd, October 2006. Statistics supplied by AT from annual station boarding surveys carried out in 1997 and then annually since 2003.

55

Figure 4.8: Rail services per week and annual patronage

12,000,000 3,000

10,000,000

2,500

8,000,000

2,000

Patronage

6,000,000

1,500

4,000,000

1,000

2,000,000

500

0
Jun-03 Jun-04 Jun-05 Jun-06 Jun-07 Jun-08 Jun-09 Jun-10 Sep-10 Apr-12

Services

Patronage

Source: AT data

Source: AT data/ analysis

161. Figures 4.8 and 4.9 show that since the opening of Britomart in 2003/2004, there has been a strong, positive statistical correlation (R2=0.71) between increased numbers of morning peak rail services and growth in patronage. This appears to be a much stronger relationship than existed prior to Britomart being completed. Figure 4.9: Correlation between rail services and patronage
100% 80% Train Patronage 60% 40% 20% 0% -20% -40% -60% -40% -20% 0% 20% Train Services 40% 60%

Pre-Britomart Post-Britomart Linear (Pre-Britomart) Linear (Post-Britomart)

Source: AT data/analysis

Services

56

162. The fact that patronage growth has tracked faster than service offering can be explained by service offering being accompanied by an increase in train capacity per service. In 2003, all trains (bar three peak services in peak direction) were provided by two-car trains. At that time, the urban fleet was made up of 19 two-car trains. The current fleet is now made up of 39 trains in a mixture of two to six carriage configurations. 163. Prior to Britomart opening in 2003/2004, rail services in Auckland were limited to halfhourly peak and hourly inter-peak Monday to Friday daytime services with the last Papakura service at 6:10pm and the last Waitakere train at 6:15pm. Saturday services ran hourly on the Southern and Western lines only. 164. An upgraded timetable with 20 per cent more services was implemented for the Britomart opening, designed to cope with the 20 per cent increase in patronage predicted to be generated by Britomart. This extended rail service to 8pm on weekdays and provided some additional peak services. 165. Since Britomart opening, rail services have been upgraded progressively as additional interim rolling stock, through the conversion of imported British Mark II carriages to SA/SD push-pull trains, became available; the Western Line was progressively double-tracked; the Onehunga Line re-opened for passenger service and the new rail spur to Manukau City Centre was opened.

Case study 1: Service improvement to Pukekohe Station Daily rail boardings have increased eleven-fold (1,188 per cent) at Pukekohe Station from 40 in 2003 to 515 in 2011, largely driven by the increase in rail service from 1 to 20 return trips per weekday. Commuter rail service began with a single return trip from 21 June 2000 with the trial of the Waikato Connection Hamilton commuter service. This was replaced with a Pukekohe to Auckland return commuter trip when the Waikato Connection was cancelled in October 2001. Services were progressively improved in 2006, 2008 and 2009 to the current 20 return trips per weekday. Station upgrades 166. Most of the 42 rail stations have been upgraded to a consistent standard across the network with the few remaining stations being upgraded in conjunction with the electrification of the Auckland urban rail network. The core elements of all rail station upgrades are enhanced shelter; improved customer information, including timetables and wayfinding signage; closed-circuit television surveillance; customer help points; platform surface improvements; upgraded lighting and accessibility improvements (in many cases) to meet building code standards for disabled accessibility. 167. In addition, the most important stations in the network (e.g. Newmarket and New Lynn), which connect to major trip destinations and are often linked to a bus interchange, have received an even higher level of upgrade that recognises the numbers of people using them and their importance on the rail network. This may include enhanced surface treatments, provision of escalators, arts treatments, public toilets, ticket offices and appropriate concourse areas. 168. Stations that have been upgraded as part of the RDP have typically experienced significant patronage increases soon after upgrades were completed, demonstrated in .

57

Table 4.8: Station upgrades and changes in boardings

Station Year of upgrade 2010 2010 2010 Change Daily boardings prior 421 (2009) 464 (2010) 1,725 (2007) Daily boardings after 833 (2011) 676 (2011) 2070 (2010) % change

Grafton Avondale Newmarket

Source: AT data

Station moved and upgraded Station moved and upgraded Station redeveloped

98% 46% 20%

169.

The recent history of the network is shown on Figures 4.10 and 4.11.

58

Figure 4.10: Service development history

2006 Additional peak and weekend services introduced
Morningside Baldwin Ave
Mt Albert

Waitakere
Swanson

2005 Sunday services as far as New Lynn

Ranui
Sturges Rd

Britomart

Auckland

2007 Extended evening services all lines

Orakei Meadowbank

2004 Saturday services on Eastern Line

Grafton Mt Eden Kingsland

Newmarket Remuera Greenlane Glen Innes

Panmure

Henderson

2008 4 Peak trains per hour Henderson to Swanson

Sunnyvale

Fruitvale Rd

Avondale

Glen Eden

New Lynn

2005 Double tracking between Boston Rd and Avondale

Ellerslie Sylvia Park Penrose

2005 Sunday services on Southern and Eastern Lines

2010 Western Line Sunday services extended from New Lynn to Henderson

Te Papapa
Onehunga Westfield

2007 Half-hour weekend services on Southern and Eastern Lines

Otahuhu

Middlemore

2010 Onehunga Line reopened 2007 4 Peak trains per hour New Lynn to Henderson

Papatoetoe
Puhinui

2012 Manukau Line open for passenger services

Homai Manurewa Te Mahia

Takanini

Papakura

Source: AT data and analysis

59

Figure 4.11: Station development history

2005 Ranui Station upgraded Waitakere

Swanson

2005 Kingsland Station upgraded

2003 Britomart Transport Centre opens

Britomart

2010 Boston Road closed and Auckland Grafton opened

Orakei Meadowbank

2010 Newmarket Station upgraded 2006 Orakei and Meadowbank stations upgraded 2006 Panmure Station relocated closer to town centre

Ranui
Sturges Rd

Henderson
2008 Sturges Road, Ranui and Swanson upgraded

Morningside Baldwin Ave

Mt Albert

Grafton Mt Eden Kingsland

Newmarket Remuera Greenlane Glen Innes

Panmure

Sunnyvale

Fruitvale Rd

Avondale

2008 & 2012 Ellerslie Station upgraded

Te Papapa

Ellerslie Sylvia Park Penrose

2007 Sylvia Park Station opened 2004 Glen Innes and Papatoetoe stations upgraded

Glen Eden 2006 Henderson Station upgraded

New Lynn

Onehunga

Westfield

2007 Glen Eden, Fruitvale and New Lynn upgraded

Otahuhu 2011 Baldwin Ave station upgraded 2010 Relocated Avondale Station opened 2006 Homai upgraded + partial upgrade for Puhinui 2010 New Lynn, Onehunga, Penrose and Te Papapa upgraded

2007 Middlemore Station upgraded

Middlemore

Papatoetoe
Puhinui

2012 Manukau Station opened

Homai Manurewa Te Mahia

Takanini

2006 Manurewa Station relocated and upgraded

2007 Papakura Station upgraded

Papakura

Source: AT data and analysis

60

Case study 2: Station upgrade for Grafton Grafton Station was opened in April 2010 replacing Boston Road Station. The new station is closer to Auckland Hospital and the School of Medicine and its pedestrian access is safer, faster and with higher amenity. The former station was overshadowed by the Khyber Pass motorway on-ramp and had poor passive surveillance. The new station, even though below ground level, has clear sightlines, CPTED-based design, and a range of active surveillance systems such as CCTV and help points. As a result, all-day patronage jumped from 421 at the former Boston Road Station in 2009 to 833 at Grafton Station in 2011, an increase of 98 per cent over two years.

170. The spark graphs in Figure 4.12 below show the station by station observed boardings over the past decade. The red lines in the graphs represent pre-development stations, and the green lines represent post-development patronage at each station. 171. The graphs in aggregate show that: Station development has assisted in maintaining patronage growth. In all cases, patronage growth has, as a minimum, maintained its long-term trend In a large number of cases, station redevelopment has led to a significant step change in patronage growth, or has increased growth compared to the long-term trend In almost all situations station redevelopment has impacted on passenger numbers negatively in the short term. These spark graphs clearly show that while physical works to improve rail services have an impact, this impact is short-lived The distribution of growth rates suggests that patronage growth has tended to grow more consistently at stations that have been upgraded. Stations that have not been upgraded tend to have more volatile growth very few have consistently grown across the period.

61

Figure 4.12: Station to station observed boarding Key pre-development stations

Eastern Line

post-development patronage

Southern Line

Western Line

62

Source: AT data

Pedestrian accessibility 172. ACs Research Monitoring and Investigation Unit (RIMU) has carried out pedestrian intercept surveys at a cross-section of rail stations. The aim was to determine the average walking distance and compare it to the recognised 800 metre walk radius benchmark. Table 4.9 and Table 4.10 below summarises the results. Table 4.9: Model access to rail stations
Papatoetoe Walked Car passenger Car driver Bus Cycle 45% 18% 33% 2% 2% New Lynn 33% 24% 15% 26% 1% Glen Innes 35% 28% 25% 12% 1% Mt Albert 71% 22% 6% 1% 0%

Source: Surveys carried out by ACs RIMU at Glen Innes, New Lynn and Mt Albert stations; ARTA at Papatoetoe station, Beca 2010.

63

Table 4.10: Average Walk Distance to Stations

Rail station Papatoetoe New Lynn Glen Innes Mt Albert
Source: ACs RIMU

50th % walk distance 1,200 m 1,347 m 1,015 m 952 m

85th % walk distance 2,180 m 2,116 m 1,526 m 1,617 m

th

173. The results show that rail customers are prepared, on average, to spend 12-17 minutes walking to access rail stations at the residential trip origin end, even in inner urban areas such as Mt Albert where a frequent parallel bus service is available, or Papatoetoe where the park-and-ride is never full and nearly half of the stations patrons walk to the station. Provision of park-and-ride 174. There is a clear correlation between the provision of park-and-ride and significant patronage increases at rail stations, as shown in Table 4.11.13 Table 4.11: Patronage impacts of rail station park-and-rides
Rail station Park-andride opened 2007 2008 2006 Daily boardings prior 262 312 268 Daily boardings following year 412 584 447 Percentage change 57% 87% 66%

Sunnyvale (109 spaces) Sturges Road (170 spaces) Panmure (179 spaces)
Source: AT data

175. At Sunnyvale Station there was an overall 252 per cent increase in daily boardings from 170 in 2003 to 599 in 2011, driven by more frequent rail services enabled by doubletracking, vastly improved pedestrian connectivity to the station and the provision of a 102space park-and-ride. Of this patronage increase, there was a 57 per cent one-year jump from 262 daily boardings in 2007 to 412 boardings in 2008. The station park-and-ride opened in mid-2007 and reached capacity less than a year later. 176. Park-and-ride is discussed in more detail in Section 6, which includes all current and planned future park-and-ride sites. Station relocations 177. The following stations have been relocated to improve their connections to the town centres or to improve access to key destinations: Avondale Panmure Manurewa Boston Road closing/Grafton opening
13

Note that park-and-rides were done concurrently with station upgrades and in the case of Panmure, a station relocation which significantly increased its pedestrian catchment.

64

178. Where stations have been relocated and their pedestrian access improved, there have been significant patronage gains, as noted in case study 3. Case study 3: Station upgrade for Avondale Avondale Station was relocated significantly closer to the town centre in June 2010 and pedestrian access significantly improved. At the former station location, pedestrian access was only available to the east on Blockhouse Bay Road. The new station has pedestrian access to the east at Crayford Street, to the west at Layard Street and to the south at St Jude Street. As a result, daily boardings jumped between 2010 and 2011 from 464 to 676, an increase of 45.7 per cent over one year.

4.4 Intensification
General intensification around rail network
179. Census Area Units (CAUs) located adjacent to, or very near, the rail corridor, have been analysed to determine their rate of population growth between 2001 and 2011, as well as the level of population growth anticipated by Statistics New Zealand population projections for 2021 and 2031. The APs development strategy focuses on a number of centres and areas of moderate change around the rail network, consequently the population projections for 2021 and 2031 may be overly conservative. 180. A total of 78 CAUs were identified as being adjacent to, or near, the rail corridor. A map of these CAUs (categorised by part of a rail line), which also shows the 2001 urban area, is included in Figure 4.13. 181. Aggregated information for sections of the rail network is shown in Table 4.12. Table 4.12: 2001 and 2011 population estimate for Aucklands rail lines
Line City centre Eastern Line Inner Southern & Onehunga Lines Inner Western Line Outer Southern Line Outer Western Line Rail CAUs total Rail CAUs excluding city centre Outside rail CAUs 2001 8,295 42,714 36,522 33,327 73,191 54,804 248,853 240,558 761,508 2011 22,290 53,130 43,540 41,700 92,080 69,630 322,370 300,080 942,080 Increase 13,995 10,416 7,018 8,373 18,889 14,826 73,517 59,522 180,572 Increase (%) 169% 24% 19% 25% 26% 27% 30% 25% 24%

Source: SNZ population projections and 2006 census data.

182. Areas with the highest rates of growth over the past decade include the city centre, which has increased in population by 169 per cent, as well as outer parts of the Western and Southern line: reflecting the availability of land for both new development (in selected 65

locations such as around Sturges Road station) and small-scale intensification through infill. 183. Population growth along the rail corridor has occurred in a number of ways, including larger-scale new development (around Takanini South and Sturges North CAUs), general small-scale intensification (e.g. Henderson South and around Papatoetoe station), brownfields redevelopment (e.g. Stonefields in the Mt Wellington North CAU) and larger scale intensification around centres such as New Lynn, Manukau, Newmarket and the city centre. Figure 4.13: Rail and non-rail CAUs

Source: ACs RIMU

66

184. Table 4.13 details past and projected populations for a selection of CAUs around railway stations. Table 4.13: Rail station Census Area Unit population growth
CAU Sturges North Henderson South Lynnmall St Lukes Mt Wellington North Manukau Central Takanini South Rail station(s) Sturges Road Henderson New Lynn Morningside Panmure and Glen Innes Manukau Takanini 2001 Population 2,283 3,903 1,776 3,366 6,057 2,715 2,283 2006 Population 5,772 4,026 2,334 4,119 6,780 3,099 3,390 Est. 2010 Population 6,600 4,500 2,890 4,850 8,020 3,450 4,120 Proj. 2031 Population 9,870 8,210 8,130 5,780 10,900 14,450 8,410

Source: SNZ population projections and 2006 census data.

Examples of intensification around the rail network

185. Analysis has identified a number of examples of medium to high density residential units developed outside of the city centre within 800 metres of a railway station over the past 10 years, as shown in Table 4.14 below. Newmarket, New Lynn, Mt Eden, Glen Innes and Morningside stations have seen the largest number of medium to high density units developed in proximity to the stations over this period.

Table 4.14: Major apartment development along the rail corridors

Year 2001 2005 2005 2005 2005 2006 2009 Rail station Manukau Manukau New Lynn Avondale Morningside Kingsland Newmarket Development 168 Units in Ronwood Avenue 148 Units in Osterley Way 73 Units in Crown Lynn Place 44 Units in Saint Jude Street 35 Units in Western Springs Road 92 Units in New North Road 500 Units adjacent to station Proximity 400m 400m 450m 100m 200m 200m 0m

Source: SNZ analysis of building consent data from ACs RIMU.

186. Higher density intensification has been focused around stations on the inner parts of the rail network, reflecting the market attractiveness of these areas for higher intensity redevelopment and the relative permissiveness of the zoning in these locations.

Comparing rail with general intensification

187. As outlined in further detail below (para 212-215), economic analysis suggests that improved rail services will increase land values and therefore make intensification more 67

economically viable. It is important, however, to ground-truth the economic analysis and see whether intensification in Auckland over the past 10 years along the rail corridors has occurred at a faster rate, similar rate or slower rate to general intensification across Auckland. 188. The population trends in Table 4.13 above, which suggest intensification has occurred more rapidly in CAUs near the rail network, are also reflected in building consent data.14 For the years 2002-2011 inclusive, there were 43,359 dwellings consented within the 2001 metropolitan urban area. Of these, 18,281 (42 per cent of all intensification) were within the 78 CAUs adjacent to, or near, rail stations. 189. Table 4.15 shows there was a 21 per cent increase in dwellings in the rail CAUs and a 10 per cent increase in dwellings in non-rail CAUs (that were urbanised by 2001) between 2001 and 2011. Table 4.15: Dwelling growth in rail and non-rail Census Area Units 2001-201115
Area Rail CAUs (incl city centre) Non-rail CAUs 2001 dwellings 85,584 255,897 2011 dwellings 103,865 280,975 Increase 18,281 25,078 Increase (%) 21% 10%

Source: SNZ population projections and 2006 census data.

190. The population trends and building consent data both suggest that since 2001 intensification has occurred to a greater extent in CAUs around the rail corridor than has occurred in other parts of Auckland. Significant apartment construction in the city centre in the early and middle parts of the last decade contributed most strongly to this trend (a 238 per cent increase in dwellings between 2001 and 2011), although CAUs around the Eastern Line saw a 15 per cent increase in dwellings, the outer Western Line 16 per cent and the inner Western Line 13 per cent. The outer part of the Southern Line was the only area to increase dwelling numbers at a lower rate (7 per cent) than non-rail CAU areas although its population still grew significantly as household sizes increased. 191. Consents over the last five years from the legacy Auckland City Council show a strong trend towards development in the rail CAUs with almost 50 per cent more consents being approved for rail CAU developments compared to non-rail CAUs, as shown in Figure 4.14 below.

14

15

Building consent information sourced from Statistics New Zealand and processed by Auckland Councils Research, Investigation and Monitoring Unit, 23 May 2012. Population figures for 2011 are Subnational Population Estimates from Statistics New Zealand. The 2006 census is the starting point for estimates through 2011, but additional administrative data such as building consents, university student counts, registered births vs deaths, and employment data is used to estimate internal migration and other growth indicators. The estimation of subnational populations uses the same methodology as for estimates of the national population, but with the addition of an extra component internal migration between the subnational areas of New Zealand. External migration for each territorial authority (i.e. movements between the TA and outside New Zealand) is estimated from external migration data. Internal migration is estimated since there is no direct source of annual internal migration data. The formula used for estimating the resident population in each subnational area is: Population (current year) = population (previous year) + births - deaths + net external migration + net internal migration. All components of the formula (on the right hand side of the equation) are estimates of the number of events that occurred during the current year ended 30 June.

68

Figure 4.14: Auckland (City) Council consents issued 2006-2011

3000 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 0 Rail CAU
Source: AC analysis
16

Non-Rail CAU

CBD and Fringe

192. A comparison of more intensive types of development in the last five years outside of the city centre shows a difference in the number of consents for more intensive developments within rail CAUs than non-rail CAUs. This difference is demonstrated in Figure 4.15. It is important to note that the majority of the rail CAU apartment development was derived from the Newmarket development. What is the most significant, however, is the terraced house development. The 2006-2011 data strongly supports the modelling undertaken by CBRE17 on demand trigger points for different types of development, which is discussed in detail in Section 5. Figure 4.15: Auckland City Council consents issued 2006-2011 by property type
2000 1800 1600 1400 1200 1000 800 600 400 200 0 Apartments Rail CAU Flats Non-Rail CAU Houses CBD and Fringe Terraced Houses

Source: AC analysis of consents by property type

16

399 Census Area Units (CAUs) in Auckland, 78 CAUs were identified as being adjacent to, or near, the rail corridor. This equates to 20 per cent of the total CAUs. The table below shows the relationship between rail and non-rail CAUs. Rail CAUs Non-rail CAUs Total CAUs 78 20% 321 80% 399 100%

17

Residential Development Economics in Town Centres along the Auckland Rail Network, CBRE, 2012.

69

193. While Auckland-wide data is also available at this point in time, it does not have the degree of granularity the old Auckland City Council data provided. It does, however, paint a consistent picture. Consents per census area unit have been accessed. Because CAUs are of different sizes, AC looks at consents per square kilometre within a CAU. To even out the data, rural, estuarine and island CAUs have been omitted from the analysis (i.e. very low density CAUs, usually over 100km2). The reason why these CAUs were omitted is that they would have significantly advantaged rail CAU density relative to non-rail CAU density. 194. The output of this region-wide analysis is shown in Figures 4.16 and 4.17 below.

Figure 4.16: Development density by consent granted (2006-2010)

400.0 350.0 Consents per Square KM 300.0 250.0 200.0 150.0 100.0 50.0 0.0 CBD and Newmarket
Source: AC consents data Note: The Auckland area is calculated as a net area by taking the gross CAU area and subtracting: large CAU blocks over 10km2 on the periphery of the city, blocks with large estuary and tidal components, and the Gulf islands

343.2

29.8

13.7 Auckland Area less Rail & CBD

Other Rail CAUs

195. Clearly the city centre and fringe (with a small geographic area CAU) shows the strongest growth. More critically, when the city centre and fringe is removed and a comparison along the lines is undertaken, a significant trend of increasing density and building activity along the rail lines emerge.

70

Figure 4.17: Development density by rail line (2006-2010)

Note: The Auckland area is calculated as a net area by taking the gross CAU area and subtracting: large CAU blocks over 100 SqKM on the periphery of the city, blocks with large estuary and tidal components, and the Gulf islands

Auckland Area less Rail & CBD

13.7

Outer West Line

31.7

Inner West Line

39.9

Eastern Line

48.3

Outer Southern Line

24.2

Inner Southern & Onehunga Lines

19.7

0.0

10.0

20.0 30.0 40.0 Consents per square KM

50.0

60.0

Source: AC consents data

196. Clearly, rail is not the only factor that explains the increased activity along the rail CAUs. For example, large developments to the east, as well as the attraction of its coastal aspect, will almost certainly explain part of the reason for it having the strongest consent numbers. However, the relatively stronger industrial and commercial focus in the Inner Southern and Onehunga lines probably explain why it is the poorest performing of the rail CAUs from a consents perspective. Even then, there were almost 50 per cent more residential consents per km2 on the Onehunga and Inner Southern Lines than there were in the non-rail CAUs (even after excluding the least dense large non-rail CAUs).

Increasing financial attractiveness of rail corridors

197. The above population trends and building consent data is supported by information from Statistics New Zealand on prices for dwellings within the rail CAUs. Changes in prices for three-bedroom rental accommodation across all Auckland CAUs have been collected for the last decade. 198. What the data shows is a wave effect over the last decade. Firstly, between 2001 and 2003 (i.e. year 1 of Britomart) rental income grew faster in the inner Western Line relative to the non-rail CAU average across Auckland. But other rail CAU corridors grew more slowly, as shown in Figure 4.18. 71

Figure 4.18: Rental growth of three-bedroom houses 2001-2003

Source: SNZ, PWC analysis

199. Between 2003 and 2006, the inner Western Line fell to the Auckland non-rail average, but the outer Western and Eastern Line rental prices grew comparatively faster, as shown in Figure 4.19. Figure 4.19: Rental growth of three-bedroom houses 2003-2006

Source: SNZ, PWC analysis

72

200. Post 2006, all lines inside the Isthmus sit at the Auckland non-rail average, but the outer Southern Line rental incomes have grown at a faster rate relative to all other areas, as shown in Figure 4.20. Figure 4.20: Rental growth of three-bedroom houses 2006-2011

Source: SNZ, PWC analysis

Intensification conclusions
201. Between 2001 and 2011, Aucklands growth was accommodated through a mixture of intensification and urban expansion. A selection of CAUs adjacent or near the rail corridor has been analysed to determine whether population and dwelling growth over the last decade occurred at a similar, faster or slower rate than intensification across Auckland generally. 202. Both population trends and building consent data indicate that intensification has occurred at a faster rate within the rail CAUs than elsewhere in Auckland since 2001. Development within the rail CAUs has occurred in a variety of different ways, reflecting different development markets in different parts of Auckland. Some important trends include: Significant construction of apartments in the city centre. A number of larger-scale intensive developments around inner parts of the rail network (e.g. Newmarket, Mt Eden, Kingsland and New Lynn stations). New development areas around stations in the outer parts of the network (e.g. Sturges Road and Takanini stations). General infill and small-scale intensification across the network. Increasing household sizes in the outer Southern Line part of the network.

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203. Combining analysis of population trends and building consent information with economic analysis suggests that improved rail services boost property values and therefore makes intensification more economically viable. It would appear that this process has happened in Auckland over the past decade, although in different ways in different areas reflecting varying market characteristics across Auckland.

4.5 City centre regeneration

Introduction
204. Between 2000 and 2004, city centre employment grew by only 0.6 per cent per annum, while at the same time employment grew by 2.8 per cent p.a. within Auckland Isthmus, and 3.6 per cent p.a. across the region. Between 2005 and 2008 the picture changed noticeably, with city centre employment growing by an average of 2.8 per cent p.a., whilst employment grew by 1.9 per cent p.a. in the Auckland Isthmus, and 2.7 per cent p.a. across, the region, with the city centre growing to reach to reach 80,000 workers by 2008. 205. Approximately 73,000 people entered the city centre between 7am and 9am each weekday in 2004 and of these 44,000 people (60 per cent) used a private vehicle. Of the remainder, 27,000 (37 per cent) used public transport and 2,000 (3 per cent) walked or cycled. With the opening of Britomart and the provision of significantly greater capacity on the rail network, rail patronage into the city centre rose from around 1,012 inbound passengers in the two-hour morning peak in 2003 to almost 5,600 by 2008. Interestingly, this increase, and those after it, almost exactly matches the increase in city centre employment over this period. 206. It is acknowledged that some of the rail patronage increase was former bus customers, as shown in Table 4.16. Table 4.16: City centre morning peak public transport patronage
Area/mode North Shore bus Other bus Rail Ferry Total 1986 5,917 17,021 731 1,087 24,756 2003 5,072 18,254 1,012 2,900 27,238 2011 8,376 14,478 5,603 3,655 32,382 + - 20032011 +3,304 -3,506 +4,591 +755 +5,144 %+2003-2011 +65% -19% +454% +26% +19%

Source: Transport Monitoring Update, report to AC Transport Committee, 6 September 2011.

207. The mode shift from bus to rail was a direct, explicit choice by public transport customers about the public transport option that best met their needs. Even equalising for the reduction in Other bus passengers, rail accounted for an additional 1,000 trips in the period, an increase of around 60 per cent on 1986 patronage a number broadly similar to the Northern Busway. 208. It is clear from the table that both re-establishing rail access to the city centre and the staged implementation of the Northern Busway in 2005 and 2008 had a significant positive effect on public transport accessibility (and use) to the city centre. This coincided with a period of strong growth in city centre employment. Although this is not conclusive proof of the relationship between accessibility and employment levels in the city centre, it is a striking coincidence. 74

Britomart Precinct
209. The Britomart Transport Centre (BTC) opened in 2003 to bring rail back to city centre after an absence of 73 years, as part of an integrated project to improve public transport and regenerate downtown Auckland. Its objectives were to catalyse rail patronage, restore heritage buildings, create a character precinct and revitalise a previously derelict waterfront precinct with a high vacancy rate that was considered an eyesore. 210. The development of the BTC is generally viewed as a key catalyst for the development of the wider Britomart Precinct and for the speed of the shift. Its central location and proximity to public transport options was seen as a key attractor of businesses who have moved there. 211. The Britomart Precinct (shown in Figure 4.21) is comprised largely of low-rise buildings including many scheduled heritage buildings on its perimeter. Prior to 2003, it was in a rundown condition with high vacancy rates. 212. The development of the BTC provided a unique opportunity to rejuvenate the surrounding area, including: Refurbishing eight heritage buildings including the former chief post office as part of the transport interchange development Completing seven new buildings, including the Westpac/EY and Southern Cross buildings Building a new central east-west axis walking street called Te Ara Tahuhu. 213. Recent developments include high-end retail outlets in the atrium of the Westpac building, a new flagship concept gym for fitness chain Les Mills and a new concept store for cycle brand Giant. Westpac has consolidated its New Zealand headquarters into new and refurbished buildings in the Britomart Precinct, made up of 24,000m2 of space and accommodating 1,750 staff. 214. Key reasons identified in work commissioned by AC (and undertaken by Gravitas)18 for businesses locating into the Britomart Precinct include: Proximity to transport options (public transport and motorways) Reduced business costs (fewer car parks needed for staff) Move without significantly disturbing staff travel patterns Vibrancy of area and proximity to amenities, such as gyms and cafes Being able to attract graduates and new staff more easily Agglomeration benefits able to consolidate staff in one place (due to new buildings, more efficient floor plates, large meeting rooms) and the advantage of proximity to key customers Image/reputation including quality of premises and floor size Match with related/complementary businesses in the area 215. Proximity to public transport was seen as a key driver for a number of businesses for reasons including ease of use by staff. Another factor in location decisions was the opportunity to reduce their carbon footprint, such as by encouraging their staff to use public transport. 216. Professional services firms, however, felt that access to public transport had a smaller influence on their staff and that generally their staff were more attracted by the nature of
18

Drivers of Business Location in the Auckland CBD, Gravitas, November 2011.

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their work, the company brand, the building itself (including its location) and their remuneration package. Undoubtedly, there will be firms that do not rate public transport highly in terms of business location decisions. Some may even be put off by transit orientated development for reasons such as noise, dust and crowding. A key finding of the Gravitas research was that the development of the BTC has contributed to the relocation decisions of some firms, showing the potential for large infrastructure developments to encourage firm relocation. 217. Vector Arena has also been a significant social infrastructure addition to the area. The stadium is a 12,000-seat arena for sports and entertainment events in Quay Park, around seven minutes walk from the eastern entrance of BTC. Vector Arena cost around $80 million, of which ratepayers contributed $68 million. The venue has been commercially successful, having hosted over 300 events with a cumulative attendance of 1.5 million since opening in March 2007.19 218. The arena has no on-site car parking (apart from disabled parking) but is readily accessible from the Britomart transport hub (and city centre parking buildings). 219. Figure 4.21 illustrates the significant impact of regeneration in the Britomart Precinct. Figure 4.21: Britomart development 2003 and 2010 Key 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. Britomart Precinct Scene Apartments Quay Park Apartments Vector Arena

Britomart is shown by an * and the circles indicate large-scale developments completed between 2003 and 2010. The arrows link large scale development sites available in 2003 but taken up since then.

Source: Land-use, Growth and Rail Network Integration in Walkable Station Catchments 2041, Susan Ensor, AC, 2012.

19

Vector Arena website, http://www.vectorarena.co.nz/past-events/, accessed on 23 April 2012.

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Employment and industry growth rates 220. Employment within the BTC catchment20 grew from 44,300 employees in 2000 to 56,700 employees in 2011, equating to an annual average increase of 2.3 per cent.21 This growth rate was higher than the respective growth rates in the city centre (1.6 percent) and Auckland (1.7 percent). Since 2005, the Britomart Precinct has experienced a faster rate of employment growth (or a slower rate of decline during the global financial crisis) than the rest of the city centre and the rest of Auckland, in every year except 2007, as shown in Figure 4.22. Figure 4.22: Annual average employment growth in Britomart and city centre 2000-2011
10.0% 8.0%

Employee annual growth

6.0% 4.0%

2.0%
0.0%

2001
-2.0% -4.0%

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

Britomart precinct

Auckland except City Centre

City Centre

Source: Colliers International 2012

221. At an industry level, demonstrated in Table 4.17 below, 43 per cent of the total business growth increase in the Britomart Precinct was in the financial and business services sector, while a further 21 per cent was in professional, scientific and technical services. This is important because these sectors have two of the highest agglomeration elasticities22, meaning the agglomeration benefits from such firms co-locating is particularly high. Table 4.17: Business growth by industry, Britomart 2000-2011
Key industry Financial and insurance services Professional, scientific and technical services Total change in businesses
Source: SNZ Business demographics data series

Increase in number of businesses 618 300 1,428

Share of total change 43% 21%

Building stock and vacancy rates 222. Since the opening of the BTC, there has been an increase in the level of premium and A
20 21

This is based on an 800 metre radius catchment. Business Demographics SNZ, 2012. 22 Agglomeration elasticities in New Zealand, Motu Working Paper 09-06, Mare & Graham, 2009.

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grade office space in the Britomart Precinct. Overall in 2012, over half of the office space (56 per cent) in the Britomart Precinct is premium or A grade, compared to 45 per cent in the core23 and 30 percent in the rest of the city centre. Britomart Precinct had the highest proportional increase in premium and A grade office space compared to the core and the rest of the city centre and a large share (nearly one-third) of the city centres new premium and A grade office floor space growth. Table 4.18: City centre commercial vacancy rates
Precinct 1995 2003 2011 Change 1995-2003 Change 2003-2011 All city centre 14.6% 12.7% 11.3% -1.9% 1.5% Britomart 13.5% 14.9% 1.3% 1.4% -13.6% Core 17.5% 16.7% 14.3% -0.8% -2.4% Western Corridor 13.5% 8.6% 8.8% -4.9% -0.2%

Source: Colliers International, Britomart Office Space Case Study 2012

223. High demand within the Britomart Precinct property market is also reflected in the large drop in vacancy rates just after the development of the BTC. The Britomart Precinct vacancy rates decreased from 14.9 percent in 2003 to 1.3 percent in 2011.24 Table 4.18 shows this level of vacancy is much lower than that in the core precinct (14.3 per cent) and the city centre overall (11.3 per cent). The relative declines in vacancy rates have also been much larger in the Britomart Precinct than the rest of the city centre. These changes suggest that there have been relatively higher levels of demand in the Britomart Precinct, when compared to the core and the wider city centre. This is further compounded where vacancy rates have been low within the Britomart Precinct despite the large amount of new floor space constructed within the area. Britomart rental rates 224. Britomart Precinct rents are the highest and strongest growing B grade rents in the Auckland city centre, as demonstrated in Table 4.19 below. A grade rents are substantially higher than the city centre average and competitive with the core. Table 4.19: A grade net rental
Precinct 1995 2003 2012 Change 95-03 Change 03-12 All city centre $251 $244 $277 -2.8% 13.5% Britomart N/A N/A $305 N/A N/A Core $275 $279 $325 1.5% 16.4% Western Corridor $270 $258 $290 -4.4% 12.4%

Source: Colliers 2012. Note that the amounts refer to dollars per square metre.

23 24

The Core area refers to the lower mid-town area, identified within the Colliers (2012) report. Britomart Office Space Case Study, Colliers International 2012.

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Table 4.20: B grade net rental

Precinct 1995 2003 2012 Change 95-03 Change 03-12 All city centre $204 $217 $223 6.2% 2.6% Britomart $249 $264 $298 6.2% 12.7% Core $205 $218 $245 6.2% 12.2% Western Corridor $180 $192 $205 6.2% 7.0%

Source: Colliers 2012. Note that the amounts refer to dollars per square metre.

225. B grade rentals, as shown in Table 4.20 above, in the Britomart Precinct are more reflective of the current market value of the area as many A grade rental rates reflect the need to get anchor tenants (e.g. Westpac) into the area to drive the wider growth of the Britomart Precinct. 226. It is also worth noting that the core encompasses a significant number of A grade buildings such as the Vero and Lumley centres which are within 250 metres of the BTC.

The University of Auckland and Auckland University of Technology

227. Relative to other universities, the city campuses of the University of Auckland (UoA) and Auckland University of Technology (AUT) have a high proportion of staff and students that commute to and from its campus each day (as opposed to other tertiary institutions which have a higher share of students that live on-site). Consequently, these institutions place importance on enhancing transport access into the city centre, with transport access being a key consideration in all long-term planning decisions. Transport is critical to us given that we sit in the CBD. Transport is critical the links that we draw student population from, staff population from and increasingly the association with business and commerce. 25 228. Auckland Transport has worked closely with the UoA and the neighbouring AUT to promote sustainable travel options to students and staff through the Learning Quarter Travel Plan, implemented in 2007. Prior to the travel plan implementation, a baseline survey was carried out which showed that 65 per cent of students used public transport to travel to the Learning Quarter at least once a week.26 A post-evaluation survey of students showed that this figure had changed to 57 per cent of all trips to and from campus.27 Eleven per cent of all trips to the two campuses in the 2010 survey were by rail (13.9 per cent for AUT and 9.5 per cent for UoA), in spite of the distance between the city campuses and Britomart. 229. There were 308,857 student trips to and from the two campuses for the week of the survey, of which only 17.6 per cent were by private vehicle.28 Assuming an average private vehicle occupancy of 1.2, this means that 206,588 private vehicle trips were replaced by all other modes (including the 20 per cent of trips which were by walking). 230. Of note is that this trend was supported by an increase in the tertiary student public
25

Quote from Tim Greville, UoA staff person responsible for property development from Drivers of Business Location in the Auckland CBD, Gravitas, November 2011. 26 University Travel Plan Baseline Survey, Gravitas for Auckland Regional Transport Authority, July 2006. 27 Student Travel Survey 2010, Gravitas for Auckland Regional Transport Authority, July 2010. 28 Student Travel Survey 2010, Gravitas for Auckland Regional Transport Authority, July 2010.

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transport discount from 20 per cent to 40 per cent off the equivalent adult fare, which drove a significant increase in the use of tertiary student concession fares. 231. Britomart has improved access to the universities, and it is believed by both institutions that completing the CRL will enhance this access substantially. In particular, the proposed Aotea Centre is seen as very well orientated to one of UoAs key entry points (Wellesley Street East) and to the increasing orientation of AUT to the Aotea Precinct. What we suspect would happen, you wouldnt stop at Britomart if you were on the train or if you were on the ferry you would get on the train at Britomart the next stop would be Aotea and Aotea would become a massive student station. The biggest foot flow input to the two universities comes up Wellesley Street. We would plan to have like a suction valve to haul people students and others into the universities. It is very attractive for us to have a very big ingress point which is designed towards traffic, bringing people in there and then fanning them out through the university. 29 232. UoA sees the CRL as critically important to their growth plans and is keen to have a decision made as to whether the CRL will go ahead. Capital plans are designed to orientate the institution towards the main ingress corridors from public transport (Wellesley Street East) and ensure that space acquisition suits this concept. The capital programme constitutes an investment of $1.26b over the next 10 years, of which all but $50m will be spent on refurbishment, expansion and intensification of its city campus. This physical upgrade of the city campus is tied into a key strategic direction of UoA to emphasise growing the quality of its students, increase its proportion of masters and doctoral level students, strengthen its role as a key research institution, and attract the highest quality academic workforce and international students.30 233. AUT is expecting to grow from 18,000 full-time equivalents (EFTS) today (26,000 students in all), to 24,000 EFTS in 2020. The AUT city centre campus is expected to grow from 9,000 EFTS (17,000 students) to 12,000 EFTS. Of note is that programmes that take place in Akoranga campus and Manukau campus require their students to attend the city campus from time to time. 234. To meet this growth requirement, AUT has invested $325m over the last 10 years to acquire or build new facilities31 and is looking to expand further in the city centre. Major building work is under way on the WG Learning Precinct32, due for completion in early 2013. This includes 20,000m2 of lecture theatres, formal and informal learning spaces, a media centre, a performing arts centre and a caf. Of key importance is that the building is designed to integrate the campus with its city surroundings and is part of the increasing orientation to the Aotea Precinct33. This is supported by AC and ATs work in Governor Fitzroy Place, Lorne Street and Rutland Street to strengthen the pedestrian connection between the AUT campus and the Aotea Precinct. 235. ATs PTNP review work strongly supports this re-orientation of the university towards Wellesley Street East by having this street as the new east-west bus corridor in the city centre. This will allow UoA and the neighbouring AUT to be much better served by bus from non-rail served areas such as the North Shore. 236. UoA is in the final stages of purchasing the former Lion brewery site next to Grafton Station in Newmarket. The CRL with an east-facing link would enable students from across
29

Quote from Tim Greville, UoA staff person responsible for property development from Drivers of Business Location in the Auckland CBD, Gravitas, November 2011. The UoA Strategic Plan 2013-2030, UoA, March 2012. 31 AUT presentation to Waitemata Local Board, 9 May 2012. 32 A new Learning Precinct on the AUT city campus, located at the corner of Mayoral Drive and Governor Fitzroy Place. 33 Annual Report 2011, AUT, 2011, page 6.
30

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the Auckland Region to reach this site by rail. The University is considering the acquisition of the 5.2ha former Lion Breweries site in Newmarket. This site offers the potential for long term development of a mixed use campus, with space for purpose-built teaching and research facilities, student accommodation, business development and other facilities. Its proximity to the City and Grafton campuses and the comprehensive public transport connecting all three, provides an opportunity to ensure long term integration of activities across the main campuses at a low environmental cost. The high density development potential and size of the site will support a further 30 - 50 years of growth, providing the University with a rare opportunity to secure its space needs for the future. The proposal also offers the opportunity for the University to contribute to the development of a very important inner city site. 34

4.6 Conclusion
The key conclusions in respect of the Ministers statement requesting a review of CRL with respect to: Evidence of rail patronage increases, particularly in the morning peak, residential intensification and CBD regeneration as a result of current investment, are as follows: 237. Evidence of rail patronage increases, particularly in the morning peak: Rail patronage increased from 2.8 million in 2003/04, when Britomart opened, to 10.4 million in 2011 (excluding the Rugby World Cup data). This is an increase of around 280 per cent while the citys population increased by 15 per cent. Morning peak rail patronage to the city centre increased from 1012 in 2003 to 6055 in 2012, a 498 per cent increase. All-day boardings at Britomart increased from 1,765 to 12,575, a 612 per cent increase in the same period. Since the opening of Britomart the rail system is delivering improved accessibility to railserved areas both at peak and across the day, rail daily boardings increased by 50 per cent from 28,726 to 43,068 between 2008 and 2011 while peak trips alighting at Britomart increased by 14 percent, from 4,900 to 5,603. It is expected that a full electric train fleet by 2016 will provide an immediate capacity and service reliability benefit. There is evidence that long distance commuting from outer suburbs is increasingly more attractive by rail than other modes. For example, express bus services from Papakura to the city centre have been reduced due to a demonstrated mode preference for rail. Overall, the daily use of Britomart has significantly exceeded projections generated by a 2001 Britomart Patronage Model developed to support the Britomart project.

34

Quote from Stuart McCutcheon, UoA Vice-Chancellor.

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 Table 4.4 indicates that the actual total use of Britomart achieved to date (2011) is significantly ahead of the model total projected for 2021. 238. Findings in respect of residential intensification: Since 2001, both population trends and building consent data indicate that intensification has occurred at a faster rate in the rail Census Area Units (CAUs) than elsewhere in Auckland. Population growth within rail CAUs increased by 30 percent between 2001 and 2011, compared to 24 per cent for other CAUs. Building consent data from the former Auckland City Council shows almost 50 per cent more consents for developments within rail CAUs compared to non-rail CAUs. 239. City Centre regeneration findings: Data strongly suggests that sustained City Centre regeneration has occurred since 2005. This trend is reflected in strong employment growth data reinforced by data showing a growth in public transport patronage since the re-establishment of rail access to the city centre at Britomart and the implementation of the Northern Busway. Employment in the Britomart area grew from 44,300 employees in 2000 to 56,700 in 2011, equating to an annual average increase of 2.3 percent, compared to 1.7 percent for the rest of Auckland. High demand for office space within the Britomart Precinct is reflected in the large drop in vacancy rates just after the opening of Britomart station, from 14.9 per cent in 2003 to 1.3 per cent in 2011. A survey has confirmed that the location of a number of new businesses into the rejuvenated Britomart Precinct was strongly influenced by proximity to public transport. The 12,000-seat Vector Arena has also been a significant infrastructure addition to the area. The arena has no on-site car parking but is readily accessible from Britomart transport hub. Both the University of Auckland (UoA) and Auckland University of Technology (AUT) believe that Britomart has improved access to the universities, and assert that completing the CRL will enhance access substantially. Both AUT and UoA are undertaking projects to expand facilities to cater for projected growth in student numbers in locations well served by public transport. UoA has a conditional agreement to purchase the former Lion brewery site next to Grafton Station in Newmarket.

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5 Beginning of large-scale investment along the rail corridors

Highlights
This section evaluates future capacity and potential demand and committed future investment along the rail corridors. Note that this section should be read in conjunction with the analysis in Section 4. Capacity The AP has identified significant capacity within the city centre and along the rail corridors. An analysis of both the city centre and the rail corridors has found: o Within the city centre rail catchments of Aotea, Karangahape Road and Newton, an additional 41,000 employees can be accommodated The greatest capacity is in Newton, which has capacity to increase by almost 300 per cent Both Aotea and Karangahape Road have the capacity to increase by around 50 per cent

o Along the rail corridors outside the city centre, the AGM has assessed a capacity within walkable catchments for an additional 120,000 residents, an increase of 72 per cent. Potential demand Measuring capacity alone is not sufficient as actual investment along the corridors is dependent on these corridors and city centre catchments being relatively more attractive than other locations for investment. In general as land prices increase, the proportion of stand-alone houses will tend to decline as the economics of higher residential densities look more attractive. o There is evidence to show that improved transport connectivity in Auckland increases demand for property and increases the potential return from development. A study by Grimes and Young in 2010 identified a value uplift of $605 million to $667 million in areas around Western Line stations on the 2006 announcement of the double-tracking of the line. This is in line with international findings on transit oriented development CBRE were commissioned in 2012 to analyse the development feasibility of different types of residential development. The work effectively determines the land value change required to make a type of more intensified housing economic (and other less intensive types uneconomic): The economics around townhouse and terraced house development potential is strong throughout the rail corridors with many stations already profitable for this type of investment It is unlikely that the CRL alone would support apartment development, with Morningside and Newton the most likely locations if apartments were to be developed.

With the CRL, higher demand for properties around rail stations would make medium- to high-density residential development in those areas more feasible than at present. This will be important and is consistent with the aspirations of the AP.

Current demand In addition to the investment discussed in Section 4 (e.g. Britomart ) there is considerable investment directly attributable to rail already in the planning and implementation phases including: o Manukau Insitute of Technologys development at the Manukau Branch Line. The desire to reorganise the MIT campus underpinned development and transport connectivity made this possible o Potential developments around Tamaki, Panmure, Parnell and Glenora stations
o Investment around New Lynn resulting from the improvements to road and rail amenity.

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5.1 Overview
240. This section outlines how AC is planning to facilitate large-scale investments in the rail corridors. It outlines the planning framework of the Unitary Plan and Area Spatial Plans and, in particular, how the Unitary Plan is working to address rules and regulations that make intensification unnecessarily difficult. It then summarises work carried out by AC on AP growth projections and the ability to accommodate this growth by continuing and accelerating lower-level, heritage-sensitive intensification in inner urban areas, enabled by Unitary Plan changes. This is followed by a summary of value uplift from past rail investment and how this uplift will make more neighbourhoods around railway stations economically viable for more intensive development typologies, such as terraced housing and apartments. An economic analysis of how the CRL investment could lead to further value uplift, which in turn would make higher intensity development economically viable in more areas, is outlined The section concludes with a review of a number of projects at various stage of progress. These projects are intended to increase the intensity of development around rail stations.

5.2 Capacity: Planning for large-scale investment

Unitary Plan and Area Spatial Plans
241. The APs development strategy aims to provide for 70 per cent of dwelling growth in the next 30 years inside the 2010 MUL. The strategy also has flexibility to provide for 40 per cent of dwelling growth outside the 2010 MUL. The development strategy map highlights the areas where intensification will be focused: most notably in the city centre, metropolitan centres and town centres, as well as broader areas of moderate change across Auckland but particularly focused on the Isthmus, the East Coast Bays area on the North Shore and the rail corridors in the south and west. 242. The Unitary Plan is the key document to implement the APs development strategy. Directive 10.1 of the AP states that the Unitary Plan must provide sufficient capacity for 280,000 new dwellings to be built within the 2010 MUL over the next 30 years. 243. The Unitary Plan is still being prepared and will include widespread residential upzoning to give effect to the AP. The information below relates to the proposals taken to Local Board workshops for feedback during September and October 2012. Residential upzoning 244. Residential upzoning will be predominantly undertaken by applying two new residential zones: Apartment building and terraced house zone Mixed housing zone 245. The apartment building and terraced house zone will generally be applied in areas within 250 metres of metropolitan, town and local centre zones, where those centres are located on the Frequent Transit Network (FTN)1 (which includes the rail network). This zone will be the highest intensity residential zone, providing for development without density limits on
1

The FTN is the high frequency bus (and ferry) network with connected routes at least every 15 minutes, 15 hours per day, 7 days per week.

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sites greater than 1500m2. Height limits of six levels will be applied where the zone adjoins a metropolitan centre and four levels adjacent to town and local centres. 246. The mixed housing zone is intended to enable a diverse range of housing typologies, including terraced housing, small-lot detached housing and low-rise apartments of up to two levels. The zone is applied to areas within 250-500 metres of centres on the FTN and to all other areas within 500 metres of the FTN that do not have a heritage or historic character classification. For development of up to two units, standard density rules will apply, but for three or more units on sites greater than 1500m2 there will be no density limits. The zone will have a maximum building height of 8.5 metres, approximately two levels. Business and centres upzoning 247. Building heights are proposed to be increased in many town and local centres through the Unitary Plan. This will enable a greater intensity of development in these centres. Maximum parking rates (rather than minimums) are also proposed to be introduced in centres that are located on the FTN to remove a regulatory barrier to intensification and encourage the efficient use of land in these locations. 248. In metropolitan centres, height limits of 60 metres (18 levels) are proposed, while in town centres height limits of four to eight levels (15-30 metres) are proposed. This gives effect to the APs policies on centres, where a significant amount of intensification is proposed. In smaller-scale local and neighbourhood centres, lower height limits of two to four levels (1215 metres) are proposed. Mixed use developments 249. Three mixed use zones are proposed: Mixed use office and small-scale retail as well as residential activities Mixed use (business) a broader range of business activities Business park large scale office activities plus residential and small retail. 250. Mixed use zones will have height limits that vary according to their location (highest in areas with proximity to metropolitan centres or the city centre). Anticipated heights are between 15 and 22 metres, depending on location. 251. The first two mixed use zones will be typically located on the edge of town centres and along corridors and will be easily accessible through transport links. These zones provide locations for some commercial activity outside of centres, to mix with either residential (mixed use residential zone) or possibly light industry (mixed use business zone). The business park zone provides for large out-of-centre offices, normally on large sites along public transport corridors (e.g. Smales Farm).

AP growth projections
252. To test the AP growth projections, an analysis of the capacity for further intensification within rail station walkable catchments was undertaken.2 This analysis had two parts: 1. An assessment of the level of development capacity, employment and residential growth that can be accommodated in each of the three city centre CRL underground station catchments.

CRL Study: Land-use, Growth and Rail Network Integration in Walkable Station Catchments 2041; Susan Ensor, AC, 2012.

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2.

An assessment of 38 walkable catchments across the rail network to determine capacity for residential and employment growth within each catchment.

253. The walkable catchments used in the study were based on meshblocks that most closely corresponded to within an 800-metre radius around each rail station. Subsequent research3 has highlighted that the median walking distance for passengers is between 1.0 and 1.4 kilometres4, suggesting that the results of the study may be conservative, as extending the catchment radius from 800 metres to 1.2 kilometres tends to disproportionately increase the number of properties within the walkable catchment.

Figure 5.1: Glen Innes Station Pedestrian Shed

Glen Innes Station Pedestrian Shed As shown in Figure 5.1, The 800-metre walking radius, from Glen Innes Station, which was a basis for the CRL Study work, has 1,010 properties while the 1,200-metre walking radius (which is the 50th percentile for pedestrian access) has 2,483 properties. Thus, a 50 per cent increase in linear walking distance leads to a 145 per cent increase in the number of properties within walking distance of Glen Innes Station.

Source: RIMUs Intercept Surveys, AC.

254. The catchments around Aotea and Newton stations have the greatest potential for further redevelopment. The Karangahape Road station catchment is more constrained by historic heritage and by the Northern Motorway to Mt Eden viewshaft.

3 4

Intercept surveys carried out by ACs RIMU at Glen Innes, New Lynn and Mt Albert railway stations. CRL Study: Land-use, Growth and Rail Network Integration in Walkable Station Catchments 2041; Susan Ensor, AC, 2012.

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255. The analysis of suburban stations concluded that the Auckland Growth Model forecasts can largely be accommodated, on existing planning capacities, in rail station catchments, shown in Table 5.1. Table 5.1: Auckland Growth Model forecasts for rail station walkable catchments
Rail line Western Line Eastern Line Southern Line Total
Source: AC data 2012

Current residents 77,030 15,698 72,969 165,697

2041 resident forecast 135,206 38,326 126,611 300,143

2041 resident capacity 134,910 32,967 118,078 285,955

256. This 2041 target level of development would be achieved through: Implementing various plans and strategies that have identified the location and form of development required to accommodate growth. Many are supported by planning provisions that enable intensification outcomes to be realised, especially in metropolitan centres Infill intensification many station catchments had a large number of residential lots of 1,000-2,000m2 which offer considerable scope for infill The relatively large number of under-utilised lots, which offer scope for comprehensive residential development and significant intensification A wider range of development typologies to achieve medium density outcomes in station catchments constrained character and heritage overlays, such as allowing the internal division of houses into flats/ apartments. 257. The conclusions of the CRL Study5 indicate that the bulk of forecast population growth can be accommodated through lower-intensity housing typologies; the continuation of suburban infill and selective intensification. This means that the more intensive residential development typologies, such as terraced houses, townhouses and apartments, while still important, could form a smaller part of the response to the overall growth challenge. Alternatively, if more intensive development typologies become more prevalent, then the CRL Study6 forecasts could be exceeded. Furthermore, a wider walkable catchment has the potential to generate a greater increase in both dwelling and employee numbers.

5 6

CRL Study: Land-use, Growth and Rail Network Integration in Walkable Station Catchments 2041; Susan Ensor, AC, 2012. CRL Study: Land-use, Growth and Rail Network Integration in Walkable Station Catchments 2041; Susan Ensor, AC, 2012.

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5.3 Assessing potential demand

Land prices and transport infrastructure
258. A significant proportion of the benefits generated by public transport infrastructure is derived from reducing the time it takes for individuals to move around the city. Such benefits are measured by a relative reduction in the average generalised cost of travel. Reducing the average generalised cost of public transport increases demand for public transport vis--vis private transport modes. Therefore, some of the benefits to public transport investment come in the form of reduced congestion. These decongestion benefits are another important component of a standard transport cost/benefit analysis. 259. In actuality, these benefits can manifest themselves in many different ways. One obvious way is through capitalising such benefits into the value of land. Reducing transport costs and generating decongestion benefits essentially brings a piece of land closer to other destinations. In the case of the CRL, the reduction is in travel times to other parts of the rail network, which includes Aucklands city centre New Zealands largest and most productive employment hub. There is a high likelihood of such benefits being capitalised into the value of land as prospective land owners bid up the value of land with higher amenity values. 260. Grimes and Young (2010)7 show this empirically. This study identified a value uplift of $605 million to $667 million in areas around Western Line stations within the former Waitakere City, upon the 2006 announcement of the double tracking of the Western Line. Similar cases of significant value uplift have been recorded in the transit oriented development literature. 261. Clearly the inclusion of land price improvements alongside transport and decongestion benefits would be a double counting of benefits. The fact that such benefits manifest themselves in the form of higher land prices within the current urban limit is of particular interest to the AC. AC data shows a strong correlation between land prices and density as shown in Figure 5.2.

Anticipatory Effects of Rail Upgrades: Aucklands Western Line, Arthur Grimes & Chris Young, Motu Working Paper 10-11, Motu Economic and Public Policy Research, September 2010.

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Figure 5.2: Dwelling density vs land value

Dwelling density vs land value per hectare in Auckland census area units (CAUs), 2011
25.0

20.0
Dwellings per hectare

15.0

10.0

5.0

0.0

$-

$5,000,000

$10,000,000 $15,000,000 Land value per hectare

$20,000,000

$25,000,000

Note: Land area inlcudes total zoned land, where the proportion as residential differs between CAUs and the dwelling density differs between zone types, skewing results. As such, this graph should only be used as a guide to the nature or direction of the relationship between land value and density. Density and land value outliers are excluded.

Source: AC data 2012

262. The AP aspires to create a compact city with greater intensification within the current urban limits. The ability of the market to deliver intensification is based on a range of factors. CBRE8 identifies four key variables: development costs, realisation values, development density and land cost. AC can influence all of these variables to some degree. The remainder of this section describes how investment in the CRL to effect change in land values and what impact this would have on intensification. 263. Two studies were commissioned to guide this work. The first, by CBRE, which investigated the economic feasibility of intensification along the Western Line. The second study, by NZIER.9 analysed how the CRL would change this outcome in favour of the compact city described in the AP. 264. CBREs task was to analyse the development feasibility of different densities and typologies of residential development along the Western Line in terms of end product values and land input costs. The purpose of this was to chart the feasibility of development trigger points along a continuum of development land costs and dwelling realisation values based on prevailing densities for different housing typologies. 265. The analysis shows how intensification is more likely to occur when high values of new apartments are realised, combined with a high value of development land. For instance, in Figure 5.3, the blue line indicates residential development for 150 hh/ha (i.e. apartments). Development types are feasible when an area falls to the right of these lines. When a property is to the left of these lines, residential development of the specified kind is not the best use of land.

8 9

Residential Development Economics in Town Centres along the Auckland Rail Network, CBRE, 2012. CRL effects on density, New Zealand Institute of Economic Research, 2012.

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Figure 5.3: Intensification trigger points for high-density apartment development

Source:CBRE 2012

Figure 5.4: Terrace house development trigger points

Source: CBRE 2012

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Figure 5.5: Town house development trigger points

Source: CBRE 2012

266. This relationship is confirmed in Figure 5.6, which shows that areas with higher land prices tend to have a lower proportion of stand-alone housing. This analysis by NZIER shows that for nine areas in Auckland (generally stations along the Western Line (Takanini and Panmure were included for comparison10), there is a downward relationship. While this piece of analysis is limited to only a few areas in Auckland, its results are intuitive. As land prices increase, holding all else constant, the proportion of stand-alone housing will tend to decline as the economics of higher residential densities look more attractive. Figure 5.6: Density versus relative land and dwelling prices
100%

Proportion of dwellings which are stand alone houses

90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 0.08 0.10 0.12 0.14 0.16 0.18 Ratio of land to dwelling prices 0.20 0.22 0.24 y = -0.623ln(x) - 0.5969 R = 0.5081

Source: NZIER 2012

10

Areas include Newton, Morningside, New Lynn, Glen Eden, Sunnyvale, Henderson, Ranui, Panmure and Takanini.

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267. The analysis plots several areas along the Western Line in relation to these feasibility lines (see Figures 5.3, 5.4 and 5.5). An 800-metre catchment area was used around stations. To derive these figures, CBRE considered the current market value parameters of the locations estimated on the basis of market pricing for various housing typologies in each of the locations considered and their implications for the cost of brownfields development land. They then related these to the required value parameters to support new medium/high density development. 268. The required value parameters to support new medium/high density development are determined on the basis of analysis encompassing the following factors: Indicative development cost Possible realisation values Development density Indicative development land cost

269. The results show that some areas are closer than others to being able to support residential intensification. For instance, K Road and Newton are the closest to realising high density apartment living, while Ranui and Glen Eden are not market viable. Generally, this analysis shows that town house and terraced house development are the most viable in areas along the Western Line. Apartments are not market viable, although they are closest to being commercially attractive in Newton and K Road. 270. Higher density typologies have a steeper gradient which shows that higher density occurs when realisation and land values show a relatively higher increase. As an area becomes more attractive for residential living, the realisation value of development will increase. This will result in a movement up and to the right of the viability indicators and improve the chances of intensification. Measuring the effect of the City Rail Link on intensification 271. In order to understand how the CRL would change intensification feasibilities, transport benefits from the AC and Central Government reviews of the APB&B Study were used as a proxy for changes in land values. 272. This approach is consistent with the work of Grimes & Young (2010). In this study, the authors were able to show that house prices around rail stations on the Western Line increased on announcement of the Developing Auckland Regional Transport (DART) project to double track the Western line. Grimes & Young11 used an eight-kilometre catchment area around stations on the Western Line to show that property prices adjust to infrastructure announcements almost immediately. Group one refers to houses around the stations furthest out on the Western Line, while group three refers to houses within eight kilometres of stations closest to the city centre. This proximity effect is shown in Figure 5.7.

11

Anticipatory Effects of Rail Upgrades: Aucklands Western Line, Arthur Grimes & Chris Young, Motu Working Paper 10-11, Motu Economic and Public Policy Research, September 2010.

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Figure 5.7: Proximity effect

Source: Grimes & Young 2010

273. Using the work of CBRE on the property economics of intensification along the Western Line rail corridor, some indicative results on whether the CRL would induce further intensification were developed by NZIER. 274. The results of this work are shown in Table 5.2. Morningside terraced housing and town housing is already market attractive, while land values would have to increase by 9.5 per cent for apartment development to be market attractive (note that this is supported by AC consents data). In contrast, for Ranui, land prices would have to increase by 39.7 per cent, 10.6 per cent and 11.1 per cent for apartments, terraced houses and town houses respectively, to be market attractive. Table 5.2: Land price percentage increases required to make intensification economic
Newton Morningside New Lynn Glen Eden Sunnyvale Henderson Ranui Panmure Takanini

Negative values imply that development is already economic Apartments Terraced houses Town houses 6.20 -5.60 n/a 9.50 -8.70 -7.00 22.60 -0.40 3.30 33.80 8.80 0.00 38.80 7.90 4.70 30.70 -3.60 -4.20 39.70 10.60 11.10 23.00 -6.90 -9.50 41.30 7.90 4.70

Source: NZIER 2012

275.

Using this approach and potential future benefits from additional rail investment, several areas are shown to tip over in terms of terraced housing viability. These areas include Takanini, New Lynn and Henderson; each of these areas is not market viable prior to the CRL, but becomes attractive for terraced housing after the CRL. Sunnyvale is very close to tipping over, while Panmure is marginal before the CRL and significantly more attractive for terraced housing post CRL, as shown in Figure 5.8.

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Figure 5.8: Feasibility of terraced development from the CRL

Source: NZIER 2012

5.4 Actual demand

Land use opportunities from rail investment
276. The following section outlines some land use opportunities currently being explored to link current, planned or proposed rail stations with more intensive development. Note that this section should be read in conjunction with the analysis in the previous section. Some of these examples are where developers are proposing to fund rail stations because they see the benefits from the patronage generated by them. This occurred at Sylvia Park where rail station funding was a resource consent requirement. Park-and-ride developments 277. AT has been approached by three separate developers seeking to further develop existing park-and-ride facilities. These developers are seeking to multi-storey selected park-andrides and to add retail and commercial businesses (e.g. VTNZ testing facilities and smaller supermarkets) on site. Discussions with each developer are at an early stage. Tamaki transit oriented development 278. Tamaki transit oriented development is a large 14ha brownfields site located by Pilkington, Morrin and Tainui roads owned by KCL Properties, Charta Property Group and AC.12 There is a Statement of Intent between the partners to develop a mixed use, transit oriented development (TOD) in conjunction with the re-opening of Tamaki Station and the extension of Quarry Link Road across the site, to open up developable blocks. The likely
12

KCL lease Auckland Councils share of the land with option to purchase.

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split is into a mixture of employment and residential with a small element of local convenience-based retail. Indicative work to date has a site yield of between 210,000m2 and 315,000m2 with a mixture of residential and employment, including a small (4,000m2) element of neighbourhood-focused retail.13 Figure 5.9 shows land ownership of the Tamaki transit Oriented development site. The TOD areas are shown in light yellow, light blue, pink and magenta. 279. AT has accepted that an infill station at Tamaki can be accommodated within the planned post-electrification passenger timetable subject to AC working with developers to ensure a site yield and intensity that would support the patronage for the station. Figure 5.9: Tamaki transit oriented development site

Source: AC 2012

Parnell Station master planning process 280. AC is leading a master planning process in conjunction with the completion of a new rail station in Parnell in 2014. One of the key drivers for this process is to maximise movement network connectivity between the station and Parnell Village, the Domain, Auckland Museum, UoA and the Carlaw Park Business Park. This has enabled movement network planning to be done in an integrated way, taking into account the special nature (and special legislative status) of the Domain. The other key driver for the process is to maximise the land use response to the station redevelopment, which includes as a key feature relocating the Newmarket heritage station and signal box adjacent to the Mainline Steam site.

13

Tamaki TOD: Development yield calculation methodology for input into Rail Patronage Study, AC, 2011.

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Proposed Glenora Station 281. A developer has approached AT with an offer to spend up to $5 million to develop a rail station in the Glenora area to serve his and adjacent developments including a new town centre for Addison. A station in this location has the potential to better serve the Addison mixed-density area, which has 1,500 units (35 per cent attached/terraced; 65 per cent unattached).14 The part of Addison nearest to the potential station is the area currently being developed. 282. AT and AC are currently investigating the land use and transport benefits of an infill station in this area. AT has included an investigation of Takanini station locations in its Regional Land Transport Programme, which includes possible provision for a Glenora Station. Panmure transit oriented development 283. AC has recently reactivated work in order to develop a TOD on land that will become surplus to the Auckland-Manukau Eastern Transport Initiative (AMETI) upon completion of the first stage of that project. The land is a key site that links to the station (which is about to receive a $17.5 million upgrade) with the Panmure Town Centre. The AMETI project is the enabler of a much-enhanced pedestrian connection between the station and the town centre. The TOD development is planned to make most use of this improved connectivity and act as an exemplar project in order to spark the wider regeneration of the town centre.

Implementing large-scale development

284. The implementation of large-scale development around rail is most advanced in New Lynn and Manukau as evidenced below. These are areas where physical construction is under way. New Lynn 285. There has been significant investment in New Lynn as a result of the rail investments in the area. AT and AC have invested significantly in roading and open space infrastructure to unlock the potential of the bus/rail interchange, and to ensure optimal urban blocks and a high amenity environment to facilitate intensive regeneration of the town centre. This investment includes using AC land and powers under the public works act to amalgamate and release development sites. These include: A new three-storey medical centre and car park is under construction at the former New Lynn bus interchange, to be completed in December 2012. This includes 3,350m2 of ground floor retail and 3,640m2 of upper level medical facilities. The medical centre building is future proofed to take a 100 unit, 8,000m2 residential tower, the air rights for which have been conditionally sold, and may be developed in 2013.The car park building is to replace surface parking to be lost, to enable other development sites to be created, particularly in the Merchant Quarter15. These areas are planned to be mixed use development with 1,300m2 retail, 1,800m2 office and 1,450m2 residential (17 units) and 3,600m2 commercial Kiwi Income Property Trust acquired Lynnmall in 2010 for $174 million, 2010s single biggest property transaction. They are planning to double the mall from 30,000m2 to 60,000m2, and are close to lodging resource consent. The rail investment played a part in their decision to buy and expand Lynnmall.
14

Urban Design Case Study: Addison Housing Development, Ministry for the Environment website, http://www.mfe.govt.nz/publications/urban/urban-design-case-study-addison-jun07/html/index.html, accessed on 23 April 2012. 15 Merchant Quarter will be the heart of the new New Lynn. AC, AT and Infratil Infrastructure Property Ltd are working in partnership on phase one of this project.

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 There is a major brownfields site, known as the Claypits, where Crown Lynn was formerly located. AC expects the precinct to provide 10,000m2 commercial units and around 2,000 household units and is working on an enabling project to build the northern roads as a gateway to the development. There is no confirmed timing from the owners/developers of this precinct Bunnings (14,000m2) and Mitre 10 (12,300m2) are both planning a presence in the town centre periphery. Bunnings has acquired a site at the corner of Great North Road and Titirangi Road and Mitre 10 has acquired a site at the corner of Astley Avenue and Clark Street. Manukau Station/Manukau Institute of Technology development 286. The Manukau Institute of Technology (MIT) is building a new campus in the area integrated with the development of a bus/rail interchange, the first stage of which (the railway station) opened for rail passenger traffic on 15 April 2012. The subsequent phase will include a much enhanced railway station entry via the campus atrium and include a major bus interchange which will be the focal point of bus services to Aucklands south. This is scheduled to be completed with the first phase of the campus development. 287. The Manukau campus is to be built in three phases, with a total cost of about $250 million. Phase one is already under way and due for completion in mid 2013 at a cost of $100 million. When complete it will be home to MITs business faculty and a number of other smaller programmes. 288. MIT can accommodate five years of growth in phase one and will then plan the two subsequent phases. The overall development will have a 65,000m2 footprint and accommodate approximately 7,000 equivalent full-time students and a total 20,000-25,000 students in any one year. 289. MITs enrolment has grown 40 per cent in the last three years. MIT has indicated it is still not satisfied with the communitys uptake of tertiary education and this is the driving force for the development. The primary driver is the fact that for our community, the citys community, the uptake for tertiary education is about half the national average. We now have the unique opportunity whereby we have a campus being built over a major transport interchange and therefore enabling access to education is the key driver where we can increase the participation in tertiary education for the people of Manukau and the broader Auckland area.16

16

Peter Quigg, Manukau Institute of Technology, Director of Academic Operations. Manukau Tech to Build New City Campus, National Business Review, 9 February 2012.

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5.5 Conclusion
The key conclusions in respect of the Ministers statement requesting a review of CRL with respect to: Beginning implementation of large scale residential developments along the rail corridors, is as follows: 290. Proposed plan changes to facilitate large scale residential development: Work is underway to prepare a UP with a new set of rules and regulations that make intensification easier. The UP will enable residential upzoning through two new residential zones: o Apartment building and terraced house zone; and, o Mixed housing zone. The apartment building and terraced house zone will generally be applied in areas within 250 metres of metropolitan, town and local centres served by the Frequent Transit Network (FTN), which includes the rail network. The mixed housing zone will enable a diverse range of housing types including terraced housing, small-lot detached housing and low-rise apartments of up to two levels. The zone applies to areas within 250-500 metres of the FTN. To enable a greater intensity of business development in town and local centres, increased building heights are proposed among other measures. 291. Assessment of capacity for further intensification within rail station walkable catchments indicates: Potential for a 145 per cent increase in the number of properties within walking distance of Glen Innes Station; Significant potential for further redevelopment in the catchments around the proposed Aotea and Newton stations; Potential for a further 134,446 residents to be accommodated along the western, eastern and southern lines by 2041, almost doubling the current residential catchment of 165,697 to 285,955. 292. Findings in respect of land prices, intensification and transport infrastructure include: A number of studies, including in Auckland, indicate that the value of land increases in areas where improved public transport services have been introduced. For example, an Auckland study identified a value uplift of $605 million to $667 million in areas around the Western Line stations within the former Waitakere City when the double tracking of the line was announced in 2006. Further, as land prices increase, holding all else constant, the proportion of stand-alone housing will tend to decline as economics of higher residential densities look more attractive. 293. Study results to identify opportunities for large scale residential developments along the rail corridors indicate that: K Road and Newton as areas of potential to support high density apartment living; 98

 While Takanini, New Lynn and Henderson are not market viable in terms of terraced housing prior to the CRL, they become attractive for terraced housing after the CRL; Sunnyvale is very close to tipping over while Panmure is marginal before CRL and significantly more attractive for terraced housing post CRL. 294. Developer interest includes: Approaches by three developers seeking to further develop existing park-and-ride facilities; A Statement of Intent by a development group to develop a mixed use, transit oriented development in conjunction with the re-opening of Tamaki Station and opening up of nearby land for a mixture of employment and residential development; An approach to develop a rail station in the Glenora area; Significant investment in New Lynn as a result of the rail investments in the area, including a new three-storey medical centre and car park, a proposed major expansion of Lynmall, and proposals by Bunnings and Mitre 10 to establish in the town centre; The Manukau Institute of Technology is building a new campus in the area integrated with the development of a rail/bus interchange.

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6 Implementation of park-and-ride and bus feeder services

Highlights
Park-and-ride and bus feeder services, as well as other service improvements such as integrated ticketing, have a direct relationship on the level of public transport use, including rail. The implementation of park-and-ride has had a significant impact on rail patronage. This includes: o Panmure a patronage increase of 179 boardings within a year of adding 100 park-and-ride spaces Sunnyvale a patronage increase of 150 boardings within a year of adding 100 park-and-ride spaces Sturges Road a patronage increase of 272 boardings within a year of adding 170 park-andride spaces

o o

Auckland Transport has developed a park-and-ride strategy and has identified a number of sites for development in the short to medium term: o o o o o Expanding the Swanson park-and-ride by another 135 spaces Providing enhanced park-and-ride for Glen Eden Station with an additional 89 spaces Providing an additional 100 park-and-ride spaces at Papakura Station Planning for another 120 park-and-ride spaces at Pukekohe Station Planning for a new Drury Station, including 80 park-and-ride spaces

As part of the review of the Regional Public Transport Plan (RPTP), Auckland Transport has completely reviewed Aucklands bus network. o This network development project has shown that by carrying on business as usual, there is limited ability to provide frequent quality feeder bus service to rail by 2016. o By reallocating bus resources to take advantage of additional passenger capacity offered by electrification and a new electric train fleet, a number of frequent bus services can be implemented.
o Various radial long-haul services become feeder routes to the rail network, with the resources

saved being redeployed, predominantly to bus routes serving non-radial trips.

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6.1 Overview
This section outlines how improved feeder bus services and park-and-ride options are being provided, following on from the City Rail Link: Updated Economic Evaluation prepared by AC and AT in May 2011. Improved feeder buses and the implementation of park-and-ride opportunities are key elements of ensuring the maximum efficiency and effectiveness of Aucklands public transport system, with rail becoming a true backbone for the public transport network and bus resources freed up from long-haul radial services to better serve other types of trips. The CRL, as well as the introduction of higher-capacity electric trains, is a key enabler of a more integrated, efficient and effective public transport network that better serves a wide variety of trips around Auckland. Figure 6.1 below shows Aucklands rail catchment. Figure 6.1: Auckland rail catchment

Source: AT analysis

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6.2 Overview of access modes to railway stations

295. Table 6.1 gives an overview of access modes to railway stations in Auckland and Wellington using the most recently available data.

Table 6.1: Mode of transport to rail station

Auckland October 2011 (n=529) 66.9% 12.8% 43.5% 7.7% 7.4% 3.8% 0.6% 0.4% 0.4% 5.3% 0.4% 0.3% 0.7% 0.0% Wellington 75 October 2011 (n=4,171) 48.5%

Mode Walked Passenger in a car Drove (car or motorbike) Bus Train Taxi Cycle Ferry

Source: Customer Satisfaction Survey, AT, 2011; Rail Intercept Survey Analysis, Arup/Opus for Greater Wellington 2012.

296. This data shows that Auckland has a higher proportion of people who walk to rail stations compared to Wellington. In addition, more people in Auckland use buses to access rail services than in Wellington. The biggest difference between the figures in the two cities is car access. Wellington has a car access mode of 43.5 per cent while Aucklands equivalent figure is 20.5 per cent. 297. Of interest is a strong correlation between the number of park-and-ride spaces available in each city and the number of trips accessed by car. Wellington has slightly more than twice the park-and-ride spaces that Auckland does and slightly over twice the car access mode. In both cities, feeder bus services appear to be underperforming. It is possible that in Auckland the walk-up catchment for many rail stations is approaching the saturation point and hence the planned focus on improving feeder bus services and expanding the provision of park-and-ride, which is likely to be successful in both building rail patronage and delivering a more integrated public transport system where each mode works to its strengths. 298. The following sections outline the current initiatives with bus feeder services and park-andride.

75

Technical Note 5B Rail Intercept Survey Analysis, Arup/Opus for Greater Wellington, January 2012. Car drive and car passenger mode not separately identified.

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6.3 Bus feeder services

Role of bus feeders in improving the efficiency of Aucklands public transport network
299. While Aucklands rail system has been progressively upgraded over the past decade, the bus network has largely not yet been updated to reflect these rail improvements. As a result, many bus services continue to duplicate rail by operating as long-haul radial services to the city centre. This duplication has led to the following sub-optimal outcomes: Inefficiencies in the operation of public transport services A constrained ability to redeploy bus resources to service non-radial trips The undermining of past, present and future investment in rail.

300. Agreement on a new Public Transport Operating Model (PTOM) as well as the introduction of integrated ticketing and subsequently integrated fares has enabled a comprehensive overview of Aucklands public transport network to ensure it operates in an integrated, efficient and effective manner. 301. Rail capacity enhancements, through electrification (and new electric trains) and the CRL, will enable the rail system to act as the backbone of the public transport network in Aucklands south, west and east. The reduction in bus/rail duplication for long-haul radial trips to the city centre will place greater pressure on the rail network. Rail capacity enhancements are also a critical element of a more efficient and less duplicative public transport network. There are two stages to the rail capacity boost. 1. Electrification, to be implemented in stages between the end of 2013 through to mid2016, will optimise capacity of the existing network, constrained by Britomarts limitation of 21 trains/hour/direction, through the boost in seat capacity provided by the electric trains The CRL, planned for opening in 2020/2021, will release the Britomart constraint as a terminus station, provide better rail access to the city centre, enable rail service frequencies to be increased and provide sufficient capacity to enable further growth of the rail network.

2.

302. These rail capacity boosts allow the existing bus network in rail-served areas to be refocused away from line-haul services focused on Aucklands city centre, to higherfrequency local services focused around bus/rail interchanges, generally located in town and metropolitan centres. Both bus and rail services can be optimally used within existing resources, enabling better seat utilisation of both modes, and better value for public money invested in supporting public transport operation.

Role of feeder services in the Regional Public Transport Plan

303. As part of the review of the Regional Public Transport Plan (RPTP), AT has completely reviewed Aucklands bus network and has produced a network development plan. The RPTP work has shown that by carrying on with business as usual, there is limited ability to provide frequent76 quality feeder bus services to rail by 2016. By reallocating bus resources to take advantage of additional passenger capacity offered by electric trains, a number of frequent bus services can be implemented. Various radial long-haul services become feeder routes to the rail network, with the resources being redeployed, predominantly to bus routes serving non-radial trips.

76

Frequent is defined as every 15 minutes or better, all day, every day of the week. Connector is defined as every 30 minutes or better, all day, every day of the week.

103

304. A comparison of the PTNP 2016 Do Minimum and New Network frequent service networks is shown in Figure 6.2. This network is supplemented by connector (at least halfhourly), local (generally at least hourly) and peak-only routes. Figure 6.2: Business as usual vs. 2016 proposed frequent service network

Source: Public Transport Network Development Plan, MRCagney Ltd for AT, May 2012.

305. Figure 6.3 highlights bus routes in 2016 that have a direct connection to the rail network, offering passengers the viable option of a bus-to-rail transfer for travelling to the city centre.

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Figure 6.3: Bus-rail integration in the 2016 Public Transport Network

Source: MRCagney Ltd

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306. A 2022 network (shown in Figure 6.4) has been developed to highlight the ability to further redeploy bus resources away from radial trips once the CRL is operational. The CRL will result in rail being the fastest path between the city centre and almost all the west, including parts of the Western Isthmus. It allows bus services along New North Road to be shifted to a feeder to rail function, and deletes all the peak-only services from the west (except Te Atatu). Various Eastern Isthmus peak services are also removed as rail becomes attractive for reaching the core of the city centre. These resource savings can be reinvested into stronger connecting/feeder services, expanding the reach of the frequent network both on its own terms and as a feeder to the rail system. Figure 6.4: Bus-rail integration in the 2022 Public Transport Network

Source: MRCagney Ltd

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307. The 2022 network upgrades many of the outer routes that have secondary service frequencies in 2016 to being part of the frequent network in 2022. Examples of routes (or parts of routes) that improve from being secondaries to being part of the frequent network in 2022 include: Weymouth to Manurewa Otara to Flat Bush Henderson to Westgate to Constellation Titirangi to New Lynn Avondale to Blockhouse Bay to Green Bay to New Lynn West Tamaki to Glen Innes to Panmure Mt Albert to Onehunga via Richardson/Hillsborough Roads Otahuhu to Sylvia Park to Panmure to Glen Innes

308. As noted previously, the new PTNP network depends on a much higher level of modal integration. This means that currently poorly served peripheral areas can obtain much more frequent bus services through reallocating resources from radial routes focusing on the city centre to rail-served areas with local services. 309. Table 6.2 below demonstrates the impacts of the new bus network. Table 6.2: Impacts of the new bus network
2012 Total 2016 (with electric trains) Total Savings with electric trains over status quo 1,166,000 82 $4.1m 389 14.4% 353 40.4% 36 26% 301 54.3% Total 2022 (with CRL) Savings with electric trains & CRL over status quo 3,266,000 139 $11.79m 88 39.9%

Bus vehicle kilometres Peak bus requirement Public subsidy requirement Buses per peak hour in City Centre % of population within 500m of frequent network
Source: MRCagney Ltd

46,640,000 1,070

45,474,000 988

43,374,000 931

310. Comparator cities such as Perth already use a very similar model which, in Perths case, relies on feeder buses, generally matching the 15-minute rail service frequency, with time, fare and spatial integration with rail. In Perth, 20.98 million (or 35 per cent) of the 58.87 million rail trips in the 2010-2011 financial year included a trip leg on feeder buses.77

77

2011 Annual Report, Public Transport Authority of Western Australia, 2011.

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6.4 Park-and-ride
311. Auckland currently has 2,202 rail park-and-ride spaces set out in Table 6.3 below. Table 6.3: Rail park-and-ride
2008 park-andride capacity 200 20 137 179 536 2008 Weekday demand 2008 Percent utilisation 2012 park-and-ride capacity

Line/Station

Eastern Line Orakei Meadowbank Glen Innes Panmure Eastern Line subtotal Southern Line Papatoetoe Homai Manurewa Papakura Pukekohe Southern Line subtotal Western Line New Lynn Glen Eden Sunnyvale Henderson Sturges Road Ranui Swanson Waitakere Western Line subtotal Onehunga Line Onehunga Onehunga Line subtotal Manukau Line Manukau Manukau Line subtotal Park-and-ride total
Source: AT analysis

137 179 316

100% 100% 100%

200 20 137 179 536

128 286 214 220 848

115 120 214 220 669

89% 41% 100% 100% 78%

128 286 214 220 21 869

80 24 109 68 21 35 17 354 -

80 24 76 65 8 34 17 304 -

100% 100% 69% 95% 38% 97% 100% 85% -

78

111 109 68 170 21 41 77 597 60 60

1,738

1,289

84%

140 140 2,202

78

Charged all-day parking is available close to New Lynn Station. However, this is not considered formal park-and-ride in the strict sense of the word.

108

312. When last surveyed in 2008, there was an average occupancy rate of 84 per cent at surveyed park-and-ride sites. Since 2008, there has been an increase of 464 (or 26 per cent) in park-and-ride spaces. This is in spite of the closure of the New Lynn park-and-ride necessitated by the construction of Clark Street West. 313. Wellingtons rail network, (with similar annual rail patronage to Auckland) has 5,201 rail park-and-ride spaces. Around half of Wellingtons morning peak rail trips are accessed by park-and-ride. Perth, often considered a good comparator to Auckland (due to population and pre/post electrification implications), has 16,658 rail park-and-ride spaces. Table 6.4: Rail park-and-ride provision in comparator cities
City Population Rail parkand-ride spaces 2,202 5,201 16,658 34,461 5,853 20,745 16,584 49,640 10,239 24,000 13,170 10,529 Number of stations Stations with park-and-ride % of total stations with parkand-ride 44% 77% 70% 79% 16% 85% 72% 75% 44% 60% 52% 51% Park-andride spaces per station 54 106 245 157 106 143 54 1,128 151 632 366 202

Auckland Wellington Perth Melbourne Vancouver Brisbane Sydney San Francisco Portland Atlanta Calgary San Diego
Source: AT analysis

1,486,000 487,700 1,740,000 4,077,000 2,419,700 2,043,000 4,575,000 3,228,605 1,583,138 3,499,840 1,265,100 2,674,436

41 49 68 219 55 145 307 44 63 38 36 52

18 38 48 174 9 124 221 33 28 23 19 27

314. As can be seen in Table 6.4 above, Auckland provides fewer rail park-and-ride spaces per station, at 54, than many of our comparator cities such as Wellington (106 per station) and Perth (245 per station). Of note is that rail trips per capita per annum are 23.45 in Wellington, 34.9 in Perth compared to 6.99 in Auckland. 315. Well-located park-and-ride significantly increases public transport ridership by attracting private vehicle users who would not otherwise use public transport. It also helps achieve wider transport objectives such as decongestion for what would often otherwise be longdistance private vehicle trips and reduction in the demand for long-stay parking in the city centre and other major rail-served centres. Park-and-ride demand exceeds supply at a number of locations with overspill into surrounding streets, as evidenced by the Northern Busway park-and-rides. 316. The greatest potential for park-and-ride is to serve low density outer-area catchments that do not have frequent public transport. This includes urban fringe areas such as Manurewa, Papakura and Swanson, where it would be extremely expensive to provide feeder bus services to their substantial rural and lifestyle block catchments. 317. Figure 6.5 below represents ATs current assessment of park-and-ride.

109

Figure 6.5: City centre commuter demand (non-walk-up) and existing park-and-ride supply

Poor supply Glenfield-Birkenhead Very High demand Waitakere south

Low supply

Moderate supply Orakei-Selwyn

Good supply

Waitakere west High demand NW Rodney Moderate demand Hobsonville SE Isthmus Auckland Isthmus North Rodney Low demand Kelston Avondale East Tamaki Flat Bush Franklin
Source: AT analysis

East Coast Bays

Albany Devonport

HowickPakuranga Papakura

Hibiscus Coast Torbay West Tamaki

Mangere

Manurewa

318. As noted above, AT plans to substantially improve feeder bus services to railway stations. Once these feeder services are implemented and integrated fares are introduced, parkand-ride will continue to have a significant role to play in driving increased demand for rail. In addition, park-and-ride will attract rail customers who would not make use of feeder bus services, even if available. The balance to be achieved is to provide for feeder bus access by shorter walking distances between buses and trains, and fare and bus/train timetable integration, while still providing park-and-ride, albeit with slightly larger walking distances.

Investment required to come into line with comparator cities

319. Table 6.3 provides data on the provision of park-and-ride spaces within a group of comparator cities. If a per capita analysis is undertaken on this data, the results indicate that Auckland lags behind other cities in terms of park-and-ride space provision, as Figure 6.6 shows.

110

Figure 6.6: Population per park-and-ride space

800 Head of Population per Space 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0

Source: AT analysis

320. Auckland has one park-and-ride space per 675 people living in the city, whereas the average people per park-and-ride space across the range of comparator cities included is 165. If only the smaller cities of similar size (or smaller) to Auckland are included (i.e. Wellington, Perth, Brisbane, Portland and Calgary) then average number of people per park-and-ride space drops to 109. 321. AT has identified an additional 524 park-and-ride spaces planned for in the near future on top of the existing 2,202 spaces currently provided. In current population terms (i.e. not allowing for any population growth) this would imply 545 people per park-and-ride space, which is still well below the service levels provided by the set of international city comparators. Figure 6.7 provides another visual measure of the size of the potential gap between Auckland and other cities. Figure 6.7: Park-and-ride spaces provided versus population
Plot of Park and Ride Spaces versus City Population
60,000

50,000

40,000

Park and Ride Spaces

30,000 y = 0.0058x + 4273.3 R = 0.2971 20,000

10,000

Auckland
0
0 500,000 1,000,000 1,500,000 2,000,000 2,500,000 City Population 3,000,000 3,500,000 4,000,000 4,500,000 5,000,000

Source: AT analysis

111

322. The trend line drawn through the points on the scatter plot provides some indication of where Auckland should potentially sit relative to other cities (the trend line excludes current Auckland data). The trend line has a coefficient variation of 0.3, meaning population levels potentially explain only 30 per cent of the variation in park-and-ride space provision between cities. The distance between data points and the trend line is also uneven, indicating that the power of any statistical tests would also potentially be diminished. This implies the somewhat limited nature of what can be inferred from the influence that population levels have on park-and-ride space requirements, based upon this sample set at least. 323. The trend line equation, if applied to Aucklands current population, would indicate that a city the size of Auckland should have just under 13,000 park-and-ride spaces available. This works out to 115 people per park-and-ride space. Table 6.5 summarises the possible range of additional park-and-ride spaces that Auckland would require to reach some sort of parity with international comparators based solely on the per capita park-and-ride space metric. Table 6.5: A possible range of additional park-and-ride spaces required by Auckland
Estimates People per space All international comparators Trend-line estimate Small city subset
Source: AT analysis

Auckland park-and-ride spaces Current Future Total Net requirement 6,256

Implied total spaces 8,982

165

2,202

524

2,726

115 109

12,892 13,574

2,202 2,202

524 524

2,726 2,726

10,166 10,848

Note: Based on an assumed Auckland population of 1,486,000

324. The net additional requirement for park-and-ride spaces across Auckland potentially lies between 6,000 and 11,000 extra slots based on using a per capita measure. 325. In terms of apportioning these additional park-and-ride spaces across the city, it makes sense to look at both current mode shares of public transport at key points on the network and the demand for park-and-ride facilities at various stations. Key considerations include: Inner city stations will generally be exposed to higher population densities and will therefore be more dependent on walk-in catchment around the station Because of higher densities in proximity to the city, access to parcels of land to construct park-and-ride facilities may not be available and would possibly not be the best use of such land Inner city land tends to have a higher value ascribed to it, which would make the feasibility of a park-and-ride facility uneconomic Outer areas of Auckland would tend to have more land available that could be developed into further park-and-ride facilities The development in outer areas tends to be less dense and land value more reasonable to facilitate park-and-ride development Outer areas also have different mixes of densities, including urban, suburban, semirural and rural areas, making park-and-ride facilities ideal for servicing these types of population catchments. 112

326. To try and capture some of these issues when attempting to apportion the net required additional park-and-ride spaces, the stations were divided along the rail network into three broad groupings: Inner Isthmus this represents a core of stations close to the central city and bounded by Mt Albert station on the Western Line, Ellerslie on the Southern Line and Meadowbank on the Eastern Line Central Isthmus representing a group of stations in between the Inner Isthmus and bounded by Glen Eden on the Western Line and Middlemore on the Southern Line Outer areas these are stations on the Western and Southern lines that extend beyond the boundaries of the Central Isthmus.

327. Table 6.6 applies the above groupings to examine how park-and-ride spaces are currently distributed (current plus planned), versus how park-and-ride spaces could potentially be apportioned based upon the lower bound of the implied spaces in Table 6.4 (represented by 165 people per park-and-ride space). Table 6.6: Distribution of park-and-ride spaces based on proximity to the city centre
Area Inner Isthmus Central Isthmus Outer areas Total
Source: AT analysis

Current and planned 220 576 1,930 2,726

% of total 8% 21% 71%

Comparator spaces 516 1,996 6,470 8,982

% of total 6% 22% 72%

328. Based upon the lower bound estimate for park-and-ride space requirements, Table 6. indicates that while the ratios stay roughly the same, spaces in the Inner Isthmus would show less of an increase relative to the increase in spaces contained in the middle Isthmus and outer areas. This is reflective of the discussion above, whereby land availability, smaller land footprints and land values would constrain park-and-ride development closer to the centre. 329. Each line that comprises the Auckland suburban rail network has different ratios of stations considered to be in the Inner Isthmus, Central Isthmus or in outer areas, thus the distribution of park-and-ride spaces across the lines would be expected to change. 330. Table 6.7 summarises the change in the park-and-ride spaces available on each line. Table 6.7: Distribution of park-and-ride spaces under a comparator model
Line City (post CRL) Eastern Southern Western Onehunga Manukau Total
Source: AT analysis

Current & planned 0 536 1,169 821 60 140 2,726

% of total 0% 20% 43% 30% 2% 5%

Comparator spaces 0 811 4,274 2,947 420 530 8,982

% of total 0% 9% 48% 33% 5% 6%

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331. Table 6.7 indicates what a possible distribution of park-and-ride spaces might look like if Auckland were to follow international trends and increase the number of park-and-rides at the lower bound estimate of one space per 165 people. The distribution along the network approximates the likely land availability and reflects the proportion of public transport use in those areas. Public transport mode share increased further away from the city centre. Mode share was highest in areas around the rail network and this also ties in with the regional growth strategy, where growth occurs in proximity to the major transport corridors. Therefore lines connecting the periphery of Auckland to the city centre show the highest concentration of potential park-and-ride spaces.

Future investment in park-and-ride

332. The above section shows a significant potential to deliver a better rail network through improved park-and-ride. AT is developing a strategy to identify potential catchment areas for park-and-ride based on likely demand, and provide sites that are well located to intercept commuter trips before they reach the congested parts of the network. This strategy will initially focus new park-and-ride facilities in outer areas where public transport services are limited. 333. AT will provide park-and-ride in growth centres where justified: As part of a staged transition to other uses for example, as a holding use for a redevelopment parcel in a town centre, and/or Until a high level of feeder bus services can be provided and integrated fares are fully established.

334. Table 6.8 summarises the current assessment and strategy.

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Table 6.8: Assessment and strategy

Silverdale An investment in park-and-ride (P&R) at Silverdale is proposed. The demand analysis indicates a moderate level of demand from the catchment areas, but growth is expected, and the public transport service in much of the catchment will remain at lower levels than elsewhere. The current P&R facility at Albany is being expanded, but is some distance away. This suggests that a facility at Silverdale a medium priority. The current investment in Albany responds to a catchment area with strong demand, and should be well utilised. This area has a strong city centre commuter demand, but is poorly served by P&R opportunities, and the frequent network coverage is sparse, at least until 2022. Opportunities for a P&R facility in the vicinity of Highbury should be explored. The demand analysis indicates a moderate level of demand from the catchment areas, but growth is expected, and the public transport service in much of the catchment will remain at lower levels than elsewhere. There are limited P&R opportunities in the area. Medium priority. Moderate demand from a growing area. The P&R facility associated with the ferry service should attract reasonable demand. Medium priority. This area had a reasonable commuter demand, served by existing facilities on the rail line. Some expansion may be warranted in future. Low-medium priority. This area has a strong city centre commuter demand, but is poorly served by P&R opportunities, and the frequent network coverage is sparse, although there will be some improvement by 2022. Opportunities for a P&R facility should be explored, although the obvious rail options (especially New Lynn) may be constrained. Any facility here would be short term. Alternatively, there may be some potential to connect to the frequent bus network in the Blockhouse Bay area. High priority. The Orakei-Selwyn area has high commuter demand to the city centre, and is a gap in the frequent network. This suggests that the Orakei P&R is filling a current need, but there may be merit in seeking a better alternative as development demand increases in this area (possibly to the west, in combination with station relocation). Medium priority. This area has a strong city centre commuter demand, but its P&R options are limited to the Half Moon Bay ferry, or Panmure. It is preferable that commuters are discouraged from driving to Panmure across the congested Tamaki River crossings, so opportunities for additional space in the area should be explored, especially in combination with the extension of rapid transit services on AMETI. A facility near Botany would also serve the Flat Bush and Clevedon markets. Medium-high priority. Although the demand analysis indicated a low existing demand, this is based on 2006 patterns, and does not take account of the rapid growth in this area. A P&R facility could be more cost effective than the premature extension of bus routes into new suburbs. Medium priority These areas have low city centre commuter demand, and are reasonably well served by current P&R facilities. A proposal to develop a P&R facility at Manukau is not supported by the demand analysis, unless it was able to effectively serve the Flat Bush area. A more cost effective alternative in this area may be to address the reasons why the existing Homai site is under-utilised. Low priority. A P&R site is proposed at Drury. The demand analysis shows relatively light city centre demand from this area, but the public transport network will remain sparse, so some form of P&R facility will be appropriate. It should be accompanied by an extension of the electrified rail system south of Papakura, to enable direct frequent services to the rest of the system. In the meantime, the Papakura P&R will continue to be an attractive option. Low-medium priority. The option of an additional P&R facility north of Papakura may be possible in combination with the rationalisation or relocation of the Takanini and Te Mahia stations. Low-medium priority.

Albany GlenfieldBirkenhead Westgate

Hobsonville West Waitakere South Waitakere

OrakeiSelwyn

HowickPakuranga

Flat Bush

MangereManukauManurewa

Papakura and Franklin

Source: AT analysis

115

335. In the meantime work is progressing on a number of park-and-ride projects, including: Expanding the Swanson park-and-ride by another 135 spaces Providing enhanced park-and-ride options for Glen Eden Station with an additional 89 park-and-ride spaces Providing an additional 100 park-and-ride spaces at Papakura Station as part of the current station redevelopment project Planning for another 120 park-and-ride spaces at Pukekohe Station in association with the post-electrification station upgrade Planning for a new Drury Station, including an 80-space park-and-ride, after the completion of the electrification project Retaining park-and-ride at Orakei Station Retaining provision of park-and-ride at Panmure Station as part of AMETI redevelopment Providing managed park-and-ride at New Lynn Station

336. Based on the levels of occupancy achieved in Aucklands existing park-and-ride sites, this strategy is likely to be successful in generating a substantial increase in peak rail trips. The location of many of these park-and-rides means that long-distance private vehicle trips to the city centre are likely to be converted to shorter distance trips in less congested conditions to park-and-ride sites, with the most congested part of what would have been a private vehicle journey replaced by a rail journey in its own right of way. 337. Current park-and-ride initiatives are summarised in the draft Auckland Regional Public Transport Plan. 338. Figure 6.8 shows locations to be investigated and, where appropriate, developed for parkand-ride facilities.

116

Figure 6.8: Potential park-and-ride locations

Source: The Draft Auckland Regional Public Transport Plan, Appendix 6.

117

6.5 Conclusion
The key conclusions in respect of the Ministers statement requesting a review of CRL with respect to: Implementation of additional park and ride sites, and changes to bus feeder services, is as follows: 338. Implementation of additional park and ride sites: The data shows that Auckland has a higher proportion of people who walk to rail stations compared to Wellington, but the walk-up catchment for many rail stations is approaching saturation point and hence the planned focus on expanding provision of park-and-ride and improving feeder bus services. The net additional requirement for park-and-ride spaces across Auckland potentially lies between 6,000 and 11,000 extra slots based on using a per capita measure. A table summarises the current assessment and strategy under which Auckland Transport (AT) will provide park-and-ride in growth centres where justified: o As part of a staged transition to other uses; e.g. as a holding use for a redevelopment parcel in a town centre, and/or o Until a high level of feeder bus services can be provided and integrated fares are fully established. The greatest potential for park-and-ride is to serve low density outer-area catchments that do not have frequent public transport. This includes urban fringe areas such as Manurewa, Papakura and Swanson where it would be extremely expensive to provide feeder bus services to their substantial rural and lifestyle block catchments. Implementation of bus feeder services: While Aucklands rail system has been progressively upgraded over the past decade, the bus network has largely not yet been updated to reflect and/or take advantage of these rail improvements. AT plans to substantially improve feeder bus services to railway stations. The report provides details and illustrations of bus-rail feeder opportunities Progressive rail capacity enhancements through electrification, new electric trains and the CRL will enable the rail system to act as the backbone of the public transport network in Aucklands south, west and east. These rail capacity boosts allow the bus network in rail-served areas to be refocused from line-haul services to-from Aucklands City Centre to higher frequency local and rail feeder services centred on bus/rail interchanges, generally located in town and metropolitan centres. Both bus and rail services can be optimally used within existing resources, enabling better seat utilization of both modes, and better value for public money invested in supporting public transport operation.

339.

118

Comparator cities such as Perth already use a very similar modal, which in Perths case, relies on feeder buses, generally matching the 15-minute rail service frequency, with time, fare and spatial integration with rail.

119