NUCLEAR ENERGY IN A POST-FUKUSHIMA ENVIRONMENT

A Survey of Global Opinion Leaders - Executive Summary

When it comes to the worlds future energy landscape, there are many unanswered questions. How will the Fukushima nuclear disaster affect nations energy choices? Will a weak global economy hamper investment in new energy sources? How will the surge in shale gas and unconventional oil production impact the evolution of other energy sources? To address some of these questions and gain a better understanding of global attitudes about energy, APCO Insight, the opinion research group at APCO Worldwide, conducted a global survey of opinion leaders in eight bellwether countries around the world. For more on the methodology, see the end of this executive summary.

GLOBAL ENERGY PRIORITIES In the aftermath of Fukushima, opinion leaders remain in support of nuclear energy as a priority for the future, but a large majority of those surveyed are looking to natural gas as a preferred alternative. In spite of high awareness and concern over the events at Fukushima, fully 63 percent retain the view that nuclear is a somewhat or high priority for the future. The consequences of Japans nuclear incident have had a far-reaching effect on favorability towards the industry, where only 41 percent favor nuclear as an energy source that can balance environmental and energy needs to remain part of the energy mix in the future.

oil are essential contributors to the economic prosperity of their countries. This is an indication of what the International Energy Agency has called the Golden Age of Natural Gas. Although natural gas is in the category of fossil fuels, it maintains a high priority. In a Post-Fukushima world, oil and gas are considered the most important energy sources. Renewable sources decline in favorability when opinion leaders must consider their relative economic impact of the resource.

Matrix depicts each energy sources importance and economic contribution relative to the other energy sources. Matrix axes represent the mean importance and contribution score. Coordinates represent [Average Importance/Average Economic Contribution]. Matrix depicts each energy sources importance and favorability relative to the other energy sources. Matrix axes represent the mean importance and performance score. Coordinates represent [Average Importance/Average Favorability].

This simple matrix plots the perceived importance of energy sources for the future, against favorable or unfavorable views of that energy source. Globally, perceptions of nuclear are similar to oil and coal. Favorability and expectations for renewable energy remain high and are widely favored over fossil fuels and nuclear energy. Majorities in all countries place high priority on more fully developing solar and hydropower energy resources. It is no surprise that solar, wind and hydroelectric energy sources received the strongest support across a range of energy sources and countries. Among the more interesting findings in the study is the distinction drawn between natural gas and other fossil fuels. Opinion leaders rate natural gas as a significantly higher priority than nuclear, coal or oil. At the same time, they recognize that both gas and

This matrix shows the importance of energy sources for the future against the relative economic contribution of that energy source. Interest in gas and support for developing gas supplies has dramatically changed how opinion leaders perceive the global energy portfolio. While favorability for renewables is high, many of those surveyed also believe the gas and nuclear sector currently offer something that renewable resources dont: scalability and a direct linkage to economic growth. Nuclear energy is widely considered by 72 percent of global opinion leaders to be a significant contributor to the economy of their respective country. Opinion leaders offer a very pragmatic assessment of energy supply requirements for the future: energy sources that are not currently able to offer large scale alternatives, including solar and other renewables, lose their perceived ability to balance decreased supply and increased consumption. Energy resources offering large scale supply alternatives, particularly fossil fuels, gain acceptance.

NUCLEAR ENERGY IN A POST-FUKUSHIMA ENVIRONMENT

ATTRIBUTES OF NUCLEAR ENERGY

Q11. As you may know, the nuclear accident in Japan has caused the industry to reevaluate the safety of nuclear power plants. Here are two views on the problem. Please indicate which opinion is closest to your own: Safety will improve because industry will learn from the events at Fukushima / Safety will continue to be a problem because industry has not learned enough from the events at Fukushima.

In the aftermath of the Fukushima nuclear accident, opinion leaders had a practical response to the uncertainty of energy supply. As the matrix above clearly demonstrates, support for the more immediately scalable hydrocarbon energy sources surged, even as interest in renewables remains strong. Traditional fossil fuels like oil and gas remain important as they are believed to be more significant contributors to national economies than other energy sources. There is, however, room for the nuclear energy sector to compete and regain the offering of a reliable, lowcarbon alternative. From a separate APCO study of U.S. energy leaders after Fukushima, three messages remain decisive in driving support for nuclear power: New technology, training and design have significantly improved safety. New technology has made nuclear energy more reliable and efficient. Nuclear energy presents a low-carbon emissions alternative. Globally, the nuclear industry is slightly favored over the oil industry, and both are behind the preferred industry, hydraulic fracturing of shale gas. In Europe, the nuclear industry is preferred over the conventional oil and unconventional gas sectors with 41 percent in favor of nuclear, 36 percent in favor of hydraulic fracturing, and 25 percent in favor of the oil industry. It is not surprising for only 39 percent of opinion leaders in Asia to support nuclear energy. New discoveries of shale gas deposits combined with energy security reassurances explain how 63 percent favor hydraulic fracturing in the United States.

Opinion leaders are influential individuals among activist cohorts in their country. They are highly informed and influential elements of the population and screened from the general public using criteria developed by APCO Insight over the last 20 years. This study was fielded using a nationally representative online survey in May 2012 among 1,418 opinion leaders from the United States, Europe (Germany, France, United Kingdom), Eurasia, (Kazakhstan, Russia) and Asia (China, Japan). This random sample survey is subject to a global sampling error of 2.6%. Regional samples are subject to higher levels of sampling error (US: 6.9%, Europe: 4.6%, Eurasia: 5.1%, Asia: 4.9%).

ABOUT APCO WORLDWIDE APCO Worldwide is a global communication, stakeholder engagement and business strategy firm that challenges conventional thinking and inspires powerful movements to help our clients succeed. The firm has offices in more than 30 business, media and political capitals around the world. APCO Insight, the opinion research group at APCO, deploys sophisticated qualitative and quantitative research methodologies to inform communication, stakeholder engagement and business strategies. With experience in more than 70 countries, APCO Insight works with the worlds leading companies, associations and public-sector organizations to turn reliable research data into actionable recommendations that enable our clients to engage their stakeholders and achieve success.

For more information please contact: Dr. Roger Hayes senior counselor APCO Worldwide 90 Long Acre London, WC2E 9RA UK rhayes@apcoworldwide.com tel: +44.207.526.3600 Mark Benson chairman APCO Insight 700 12th Street, N.W., Suite 800 Washington, D.C. 2005 USA mbenson@apcoworldwide.com tel: +1.202.778.1000

THE EFFECTS OF FUKUSHIMA ON SAFETY Perhaps most importantly, majorities in all four regions believe that the nuclear sector will recover and that necessary safety improvements are a likely outcome of events in Japan. The United States and Eurasia have stronger impressions of how the industry will respond to Fukushima, while Europe and Asia are decidedly more reserved. This recent data suggests that global attitudes remain cautiously optimistic about the future of nuclear energy.