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Report Word Count: 11,867 A project submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the Msc in Project Management at The Robert Gordon University Aberdeen, September 2012
DECLARATION STATEMENT
I, Manuel ngel Gonzlez Surez, declare that this research report is my own work except as indicated in the references and acknowledgements. It is submitted in partial fulfilment of the requirements for the degree of MSc Project Management in the Robert Gordon University, Aberdeen. It has not been submitted before for any degree or examination in this or any other university.
Manuel ngel Gonzlez Surez Signed at Aberdeen On the 27th day of September 2012
ABSTRACT
This Research Project is focused on the Performance Baseline (PB) and concretely on the assessment of maturity of the baseline across the PLC, analysing the elements influencing this maturity and trying to find the way to improve PB suitability within each project phase in relation to the size, complexity and type of project. Initial Literature Review was oriented to obtain relevant information to clearly define the PB concept, as well as its main components. Then, once it was clarified the meaning of the term maturity in relation to the PB, and outlined the main elements affecting to the maturity of the performance baseline, a further analysis of relevant information was undertaken to be able to obtain some initial conclusions to underpin further research (See Chapter 1). Thus, it was noticed that the Front End Loading (FEL) of the project is the timing when the PB is developed and therefore processes undertaken within this stage are essential for the development of a suitable PB. Furthermore, it was also concluded that Management and Control frameworks that govern these early stages of the project are major contributors to the proper progress of the PB maturity. In this regard, several models associated to different public and private organism have been taken in account in order to undertake this research project, but finally only a small group of them have been selected as desirable collaborators for this research, basing on the criteria that have ruled the research process (See Chapter 2). These selected models have been analysed and their main features have been briefly defined and further compared to be able to create a conceptual framework which will create the basis underpinning this project. Moreover, it has also been designed a Primary Research which should provide the relevant data sets allowing to develop appropriate answers to the research questions (See Chapter 3). Accordingly it was designed a research strategy which will indicate the way that data will be obtained and analysed. This strategy was created taken in account several previous researches undertaken in relation with this area, but also the main characteristics of this particular topic.
Finally, as a result of this Primary Research, it is expected to be able to extract relevant conclusions which make possible to link the maturity of the PB to some of the main features and processes involved in these management and control models. Thus, obtaining valuable findings it will be able to outline a theoretical framework, from a management and control perspective, containing the main features that would help to maximize the suitability of the PB maturity across the PLC.
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
This research project would not have been possible without the support of many people who have provided guidance and support throughout my MSc and this Individual Project. The author wishes to express his gratitude to:
Mr. Langes Supramaniam (MSc Course Leader and Individual Project Supervisor) (For making me a better researcher)
Ms. Sheonagh Rowley (Lecturer) (For her patience, supervision and important feedback)
ACRONYMS
AGR ANAO APM BC CD CERF CII DOE EPP EVM FED FEED FEL FMG IAPPM IPA IPR KPI NASA OGC PB PDRI PDRI PIM PLC PM PMI PMP PP PPP PRES PRP PT QA RPS SOW TBS TPC TRA WBS Assurance Gate Review Australian National Audit Office Association for Project Management Business Case Critical Decision Civil Engineering Research Foundation Construction Industry Institute Department of Energy (USA) Early Project Planning Earned Value Management Front-End Development Front End Engineering and Design Front-End Loading Financial Management Guidance (Australia) International Association of Project and Program Management Independent Project Analysis Independent Project Review Key Performance Indicator National Aeronautics and Space Administration Office of Government Commerce(UK) Performance Baseline Project Definition Rating Index Project Definition Rating Index Probability Impact Matrix Project Life Cycle Project Manager Project Management Institute Project Management Plan Project Plan Pre Project Planning Primary Research Execution Stage Phases Review Process Project Team Quality Assurance Research Proposal Stage Scope of Work Treasury Board of Canada Secretariat Total Project Cost Technology Readiness Assessment Work Breakdown Structure
CONTENTS:
1. INITIAL RESEARCH PLAN ....................................................................... 16 1.1. 1.2. INTRODUCTION ............................................................................ 16 RATIONALE .................................................................................. 17 Personal ................................................................................. 17 Business ................................................................................. 18 Academic Rationale .................................................................. 18
PROBLEM STATEMENT ................................................................... 19 RESEARCH QUESTIONS.................................................................. 22 PROBLEM DEFINITION ................................................................... 22 AIM ....................................................................................... 22 Objectives .............................................................................. 22 Scope .................................................................................... 23 Deliverables ............................................................................ 24 Risk Analysis ........................................................................... 24 CRITICAL SUCCESS FACTORS.................................................... 26 SUCCESS CRITERIA ................................................................. 26 KEY PERFORMANCE INDICATORS ............................................... 26 ASSUMPTIONS ........................................................................ 27
1.5.10. CONSTRAINTS......................................................................... 27 1.5.11. CONSIDERATIONS ................................................................... 27 1.6. 1.7. 1.8. RESEARCH PROJECT SCHEDULE ...................................................... 28 RESOURCE REQUIREMENTS ............................................................ 29 INITIAL LITERATURE REVIEW ......................................................... 30 Introduction ............................................................................ 30 PB Development ...................................................................... 31 The Front End Loading .............................................................. 33 PB Maturity ............................................................................. 35
2. LITERATURE REVIEW ............................................................................. 44 2.1. 2.2. 2.3. INTRODUCTION ............................................................................ 44 LITERATURE REVIEW PROCESS ....................................................... 44 SEARCH PLAN ............................................................................... 46 Search parameters................................................................... 46 Mapping the literature .............................................................. 47 Sources of information ............................................................. 48
FRONT END MANAGEMENT AND CONTROL APPROACHES .................... 49 Sources Selection .................................................................... 49
2.4.1. 2.5.
MODELS BRIEF DESCRIPTION ......................................................... 51 The Royal Norwegian Ministry of Finance QA Scheme .................... 51 OGC Gateway Process (Office of Government Commerce) .............. 53 DFA Gateway Review Process (Australia) ..................................... 55 CII (Construction Industry Institute)........................................... 56 U.S Department of Energy (D.O.E) ............................................. 58 Treasury Board of Canada Secretariat (TBS) ................................ 60
MODELS COMPARISON................................................................... 62 OGC/ TBS/ DFA ....................................................................... 62 DOE / CII ............................................................................... 63 Norway / OGC ......................................................................... 65 DOE/Norway ........................................................................... 66 Models Comparison Matrix ........................................................ 67
INTRODUCTION ............................................................................ 71 RESEARCH PHILOSOPHY ................................................................ 72 RESEARCH APPROACHES ................................................................ 73 Quantitative/Qualitative ............................................................ 73 Deductive/Inductive ................................................................. 74
RESEARCH PURPOSE ..................................................................... 74 RESEARCH STRATEGY .................................................................... 76 SAMPLING AND PILOTING .............................................................. 80 Determining Sample Design ...................................................... 80 Target Population .................................................................... 81 Sampling Frame ...................................................................... 81 Sampling Techniques ............................................................... 81 Sample Size ............................................................................ 83 Execute the Sampling Process ................................................... 84 Piloting ................................................................................... 86
3.6.1. 3.6.2. 3.6.3. 3.6.4. 3.6.5. 3.6.6. 3.6.7. 3.7. 3.8. 3.9.
QUESTIONNAIRE DESIGN ............................................................... 86 IDENTIFY DATA SETS .................................................................... 89 DATA ANALYSIS APPROACHES ........................................................ 91 Analysing Results .................................................................... 91
4. CONCLUSION AND RECOMENDATIONS..................................................... 96 4.1. CONCLUSIONS.............................................................................. 96 Research Project Development .................................................. 96 Research Project Review/Findings .............................................. 97
6. BIBLIOGRAPHY ................................................................................... 107 7. APPENDICES ...................................................................................... 110 7.1. APPENDIX 1: RESEARCH PROJECT RISK ......................................... 111 Identifying Risks .................................................................... 111 Risk Analysis ......................................................................... 112 Probability-Impact Matrix ........................................................ 113 Risk Evaluation ...................................................................... 115 Risk Response Development .................................................... 116
7.1.1. 7.1.2. 7.1.3. 7.1.4. 7.1.5. 7.2. 7.3. 7.4. 7.5. 7.6. 7.7. 7.8.
APPENDIX 2: SELECTION CRITERIA WEIGHTING SYSTEM ................. 117 APPENDIX 3: INFORMATION ACCESIBILITY ..................................... 118 APPENDIX 4: CHANGES LOG ......................................................... 119 APPENDIX 5: RELATED RESEARCH PROJECTS.................................. 120 APPENDIX 6: GANTT CHART ......................................................... 126 APPENDIX 7: RESEARCH PROJECT FLOW CHART .............................. 127 APPENDIX 8: DATA SET CAPTURING PROCESS ................................ 128
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LIST OF FIGURES
Figure 1: Project Control .............................................................................. 16 Figure 2: Research Project PLC ..................................................................... 17 Figure 3: Immature PB: Effects & Consequences ............................................. 19 Figure 4: Uncertainty Evolution ..................................................................... 20 Figure 5: PB Development ............................................................................ 20 Figure 6: Decision Making Process ................................................................. 21 Figure 7: Research Project Scope .................................................................. 23 Figure 8: Research Project Schedule .............................................................. 28 Figure 9: PB Development ............................................................................ 30 Figure 10: PB Components ........................................................................... 31 Figure 11: PB Maturity-Building Process (1) .................................................... 31 Figure 12: APM PLC Models .......................................................................... 32 Figure 13: PB Progress ................................................................................ 32 Figure 14: Front End Loading ........................................................................ 33 Figure 15: Evolution of Project Uncertainty ..................................................... 34 Figure 16: PB Development .......................................................................... 35 Figure 17: PB Maturity-Building Process (2) .................................................... 35 Figure 18: PB Maturity-Building Process (3) .................................................... 36 Figure 19: PB Maturity-Building Process (4) .................................................... 37 Figure 20: Project Definition Methods & Tools ................................................. 37 Figure 21: PB Maturity-Building Process (5) .................................................... 38 Figure 22: Project Reviews ........................................................................... 39 Figure 23: Gate Review Process .................................................................... 39 Figure 24: Initial Methodology ...................................................................... 41 Figure 25: Primary Research Structure ........................................................... 41 Figure 26: Literature Review Process ............................................................. 45 Figure 27: Data Sources .............................................................................. 46 Figure 28: Literature mapping ...................................................................... 47 Figure 29: Norwegian Quality Assurance Framework ........................................ 51 Figure 30: Gateway Reviews (Norwegian QA Framework) ................................. 51 Figure 31: Norwegian QA Scheme Outline ...................................................... 52 Figure 32: UK OGC Gateway Process ............................................................. 53 Figure 33: OGC Gateway Model Outline .......................................................... 54 Figure 34: DFA Model Outline ....................................................................... 55
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Figure 35: Front End Planning Process ........................................................... 56 Figure 36: CII Model Outline ......................................................................... 57 Figure 37: US DOE CD Stages....................................................................... 58 Figure 38: DOE Model Outline ....................................................................... 58 Figure 39: TBS Model Outline ....................................................................... 60 Figure 40: Comparison OGC/DFA/TBS ............................................................ 62 Figure 41: Comparison DOE/CII .................................................................... 64 Figure 42: Comparison OGC/ ........................................................................ 65 Figure 43: Comparison DOE/CII .................................................................... 66 Figure 44: Conceptual Framework ................................................................. 69 Figure 45: ResearchPyramid ......................................................................... 71 Figure 46: Research Philosophy .................................................................... 72 Figure 47: Research Strategy ....................................................................... 77 Figure 48: Case Studies Selection (Preliminary Questionnaire) .......................... 78 Figure 49: Detailed Questionnaire ................................................................. 78 Figure 50: Additional Information Gathering ................................................... 79 Figure 51: Sample interpretation ................................................................... 80 Figure 52: Sampling Design Process .............................................................. 80 Figure 53: Sampling Techniques ................................................................... 82 Figure 54: Sampling Techniques Utilised ........................................................ 83 Figure 55: Measurement Stages .................................................................... 86 Figure 56: PB Progress Measurement ............................................................. 87 Figure 57: Questionnaire Parameters Proposal ................................................ 88 Figure 58: Gathering Data Sets ..................................................................... 90 Figure 59: Cost Baseline Maturity-Comparative Analysis (1) .............................. 92 Figure 60: Cost Baseline Maturity-Comparative Analysis (2) .............................. 92 Figure 61: Cost Baseline Maturity-Comparative Analysis (3) .............................. 92 Figure 62: Risk Assessment Process ............................................................ 111 Figure 63: Risk Analysis ............................................................................. 112 Figure 64: Probability Impact Matrix ............................................................ 113 Figure 65: Project Gantt Chart .................................................................... 126 Figure 66: Data Set Capturing Process ......................................................... 128
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LIST OF TABLES
Table 1: Project Deliverables ........................................................................ 24 Table 2: Identified Risks .............................................................................. 25 Table 3: Risk Assessment ............................................................................. 25 Table 4: Risk Assessment Matrix ................................................................... 25 Table 5: Research Project Duration ................................................................ 28 Table 6: Resource Requirements ................................................................... 29 Table 7: PB Progress ................................................................................... 33 Table 8: Search Parameters ......................................................................... 46 Table 9: Sources of Information .................................................................... 48 Table 10: Selection Criteria .......................................................................... 49 Table 11: Selection Matrix ............................................................................ 50 Table 12: Norwegian QA Scheme Features ..................................................... 52 Table 13: OGC Gateway Model Features ......................................................... 54 Table 14: Gate Reviews Focus ...................................................................... 55 Table 15: DFA Model Features ...................................................................... 56 Table 16: CII Model Features ........................................................................ 57 Table 17: DOE Model Features ...................................................................... 59 Table 18: TBS Gate Reviews Focus ................................................................ 60 Table 19: TBS Model Features....................................................................... 61 Table 20: Models Comparison Matrix.............................................................. 67 Table 21: Comparison of Research Philosophies............................................... 73 Table 22: Quantitative vs Qualitative ............................................................. 74 Table 23: Deduction vs Induction .................................................................. 74 Table 24: Research Purposes ........................................................................ 75 Table 25: Research Strategies ...................................................................... 77 Table 26: Sampling Techniques..................................................................... 82 Table 27: Sample Size ................................................................................. 83 Table 28: Request for Collaboration (Preliminary Questionnaire) ........................ 84 Table 29: Preliminary Questionnaire Matrix ..................................................... 85 Table 30: Sampling Process Criteria ............................................................... 85 Table 31: Data Sets .................................................................................... 89 Table 32: Organisation Results ..................................................................... 89 Table 33: Comparison Matrix ........................................................................ 90 Table 34: Descriptive Statistic Methods .......................................................... 91
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Table 35: Risk Identification Techniques ....................................................... 111 Table 36: Identified Risks ........................................................................... 112 Table 37: Probability Scale ......................................................................... 113 Table 38: Impact Scale .............................................................................. 113 Table 39: P-I Matrix .................................................................................. 114 Table 40: Risk Scale .................................................................................. 114 Table 41: Prioritisation Matrix ..................................................................... 114 Table 42: Risk Evaluation ........................................................................... 115 Table 43: Risk Evaluation Matrix ................................................................. 115 Table 44: Mitigation Strategy...................................................................... 116 Table 45: Criteria Sources .......................................................................... 117 Table 46: Weight Calculation ...................................................................... 117 Table 47: Changes Log .............................................................................. 119
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CHAPTER 1
PROJECT RESEARCH PLAN
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On the other hand, despite this research project is focused on the processes associated to the PB development, several project management areas will also be included within the search plan to be further analysed. Thus, Governance, Change Management, Planning, and Monitoring and Control processes will be part of the literature review regarding to the main topic. Finally, it is also important to note that the approach adopted for undertaking this project has followed the traditional APM Project Life Cycle model as shown in Figure 2.
(Source: Author)
1.2. RATIONALE
The main reasons for undertaking this research project have been divided into three different categories:
1.2.1. Personal
At the moment of thinking about this research project, Authors aim was to apply some of the recently acquired project management knowledge to the common issues I was used to deal with during my professional career. Regarding this, one of my favourite areas and source of several professional discussions has always been the improvement of the effective control of the projects. Nevertheless, this is a hugely broad area and further refining was necessary to define the concrete and specific topic area where the research project would focus. In this sense, the topic
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selected is the final result of an evolutive process underpinned by an exhaustive review of the literature.
1.2.2. Business
It is well known that the PB is a key element directly related to the effectiveness of the decision making processes that govern the evolution of the project (Klakegg, 2012), and also an essential component for controlling the implementation of the project (Lester, 2006; APM, 2010; DOE, 2011c) This research project should be able to obtain interesting results regarding to the relationship between the existing frameworks utilised for managing and controlling projects and the resulting maturity of the PB across the PLC.
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(Source: Author)
On the other hand, it is also commonly accepted the PB development is an iterative process that starts in the early stages of the project and continues all along the PLC. Therefore, the level of maturity of the PB will increase at the same time that project definition grows (APM, 2006; PMI, 2008; DOE, 2011e).
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(Source: Author)
However, it is noticeable that even nowadays, the approach of most of the PM organizations, bodies of knowledge and private contractors is majorly oriented to improve the performance of projects during the implementation phase, and few of them pay reasonable attention to the early stages of the project (Loedre, et al., 2003). For this reason, the progress of the PB during the front end loading of projects remains as a question that has not been properly addressed (Jergeas, 2008; Palmer, Gibson and Bingham, 2010; Gibson and Bosfield, 2012).
Figure 5: PB Development
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(Source: Author)
Nonetheless, despite these attitudes, the level of maturity of the PB is not only important during the implementation phase of projects, thus during the preimplementation stages, maturity of the PB will influence dramatically the decision making processes (See Figure 6) which conclude whether a project must continue to the next stage, be stopped or redefined (Williams and Samset, 2010).
In this sense, it must be considered that significant differences in the level of maturity of the PB between the stages preceding the execution phase could indicate that some of the decisions have been taken under an unsuitable level of uncertainty. Additionally, it is also clear that in order to avoid wasting of project scarce resources, the level of maturity of the PB should be directly related to the criticality of the project, its size and complexity (NASA, 2010). Regarding all these issues, it has been noticed that during the last decade several organisms have developed frameworks for managing and controlling projects. However, these frameworks have been created basing on their concrete necessities, and also on the type and the size of the projects that they undertake. Additionally, these organizations claim the suitability of their frameworks underpinning their opinions on the assessment of the level of project delay, cost overruns and lack of accomplishment of requirements (DOE, 2011d; CII, 2012; ANAO, 2012). Nevertheless, few of them take in account the PB maturity as a factor to control during the whole PLC and not just during the implementation phase. Thus huge deviations between the PB derived from the BC and the final used to control performance during the implementation is in most cases a questions that is not addressed.
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For all these reasons, this research project will focus on the existing management and control frameworks and will try to assess their suitability from a PB maturity perspective. Thus, after selecting some of the most representative, they will be compared and used as the basis to develop a theoretical framework with the objective of ensure proper PB across the PLC.
1.5.2. Objectives
The main objectives of this research project are: 1. Examine the concept, development processes and quality assurance methodologies of the Performance Baseline in large capital projects. 2. Critically evaluate and compare the different models utilised for managing and controlling major public investments.
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3. Establish the relationship between the Independent Project Reviews undertaken during the FEL of the project and the performance baseline robustness. 4. Obtain the necessary information for the further development of a theoretical framework which make possible to obtain a mature enough PB evolution across the PLC. 5. To synthesise the findings of the study making appropriate recommendations.
1.5.3. Scope
The scope of this research project includes: Building of a detailed project research proposal. Undertake a literature review (including critical appraisal of literature) relevant to the research project objectives. Design and justification of a suitable primary research methodology. Assessment of relevant findings and appropriate conclusions
This document is just a research proposal and its scope does not include the primary research. However, this research project will include: Complete implementation of the primary research methodology within the specified context. Development of questionnaires to gather information from the selected sources. Data analysis and comparison of the research findings. Development of a suitable theoretical framework for managing and controlling the proper progress of the PB.
(Source: Author)
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1.5.4. Deliverables
The main deliverables of this Research Project have been included in Table 1.
RESEARCH PROJECT DELIVERABLES RESEARCH PROJECT DELIVERABLES LIFECYCLE RESEARCH PROPOSAL STAGE (RPS) Chapter 1: Project Research Plan Full Project Definition Initial Literature Review CONCEPT Research Questions Risk Management Plan Research Schedule / Resources and Costs Chapter 2: Literature Review FEL and Project Success Literature Analysis Synthesis and Relation to Research Area Conceptual Framework Chapter 3: Research Methodology Research Approach Data Collection Technique Sampling Approach Data Analysis Method Chapter 4: Conclusions Synthesis of Research Findings Lessons Learned Project Proposal Report Submission Chapter 1 4 Reference and Appendices PRIMARY RESEARCH EXECUTION STAGE (PRES) Primary Research Outputs OPERATIONS Initial Data Analysis Results Initial Data Synthesis and Conclusions CLOSEOUT Research Project Final Report HANDOVER & CLOSEOUT
Table 1: Project Deliverables
EXPECTED DATE
DEFINITION
IMPLEMENTATION
8th Dec 2012 25th Dec 2012 Jan 25st 2013 Jan 29th 2013
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RISK ID ID-1 ID-2 ID-3 ID-4 ID-5 ID-6 ID-7 ID-8 ID-9 ID-10 ID-11
STAGE PRES RPS/PRES RPS/PRES RPS/PRES PRES RPS/PRES RPS/PRES RPS PRES PRES PRES
DESCRIPTION Unwillingness of research population to participate Lack of collaboration in study. IT failure Data loss/corruption. Project going off track and not meeting academic Lack of quality requirements. Cost overruns Funding issues / cost escalations. Analysis issues Research results prove inconclusive. Lack of organization Referencing issues and information overload. Project Delays Not meeting research deadlines. Unavailability of literature and related academic Lack of information resources. Methods failure Inappropriate techniques for data collection. People just do not respond in time for you to Time achieve project done on time. Issues associated to the ensuring of the Confidentiality confidentiality of the information provided by the collaborating organisms.
Table 2: Identified Risks
TITLE
RISK ID ID-1 ID-2 ID-3 ID-4 ID-5 ID-6 ID-7 ID-8 ID-9 ID-10 ID-11
TITLE
QUALITATIVE ASSESSMENT Prob. Imp. Overall Risk 0,8 0,2 0,4 0,56 Catastrophic 0,06 0,12 Medium Medium Low Low Low Medium Medium Low Medium Medium
Lack of collaboration 0,7 IT failure 0,3 Lack of quality Cost overruns Analysis issues Project Delays 0,3 0,5 0,5 0,1
0,05 0,025 0,05 0,025 0,1 0,4 0,2 0,5 0,4 0,4 0,03 0,04 0,1 0,025 0,04 0,12
Lack of organization 0,3 Lack of information 0,5 Methods failure 0,05 Time 0,1 Confidentiality 0,3
PROBABILITY
Almost certain Likely Possible Unlikely Rare Insignificant 0,05 Minor 0,1 Moderate 0,2 IMPACT ID-4, ID-5, ID-9 ID-6 ID-8 ID-2 ID-3, ID-11 ID-7, ID-10 Major 0,4 Catastrophic 0,8 ID-1
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Primary Research Execution Stage (PRES): % of responses obtained between the organisations selected to be part of this research project. %of fulfillment of the questionnaires (data provided/data solicitated). Average number of case studies per organisation.
1.5.9. ASSUMPTIONS
Research Proposal Stage (RPS): Secondary information utilised in this research project is reliable and based on solid research methodologies.
Primary Research Execution Stage (PRES): Organisms selected will collaborate to provide necessary information. Primary data obtained from the selected sources are accurate. Organism selected will manage to find the range of projects needed to undertake the study.
1.5.10. CONSTRAINTS
Research Proposal Stage (RPS): Project supervisor cannot be proactively involved in project. Confidentiality of the projects data set avoiding a proper primary research data collection. Availability of significant data sets allowing to extract relevant conclusions. Lack of homogeneity of the sample frame affecting to the validity and reliability of the results. Primary Research Execution Stage (PRES):
1.5.11. CONSIDERATIONS
The variety of approaches for managing and controlling projects utilised by different organisations. The significant amount of major investments failing in their originally planned budget and schedule. The complexity associated to the definition of parameters which can be representative of the PB maturity concept.
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The total duration of the project has been estimated on 189 days (See Table 5 and Figure 8)
TASK NAME RESEARCH PROJECT (Total) PROJECT INITIATION Project Kick Off Project Research Plan PROJECT PLANNING Literature Review Research Methodology Conclusions and Recommendations PROJECT EXECUTION Data Collection Data Analysis PROJECT CLOSEUT Synthesise Data and Draft Development Review (external/internal) Project Final Report DURATION (Days) 189 49 7 42 RPS 48 (97 days) 22 16 10 60 30 30 PRES 32 (92 days) 25 7 -
A detailed Gantt chart of this Research Project has been included in Appendix 6.
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RESOURCE REQUIREMENTS AND COSTS LABOUR Units Cost Researcher : Responsible for the entire study from initiation to closeout 200 hours 15 including: Project Proposal/Planning (200 h) Module coordinator: Outlines the module structure, sets project requirements, delivers 30 hours 20 lectures and deals with all extraneous issues. Project advisor: Guides the student, gives feedback on progress and holds a 20 hours 35 number of research tutorials. MATERIALS Units Cost 1 1,000 Laptop with appropriate software Multiple 200 Additional books, magazines & online resources Multiple 300 Transportation Access to RGU and associated services: Academic resources/databases World wide web/email account 1/4th 9,500 RGU CAQDAS software (cost based on tuition fee for module) LABOUR Units Cost Researcher: Responsible for the entire study from initiation to closeout including: 150 hours 15 Data Collection/Analysis (100 h) Conclusions elaboration (50 h) Project advisor: Guides the student, gives feedback on progress and holds a 30 hours 35 number of research tutorials. MATERIALS Units Cost Multiple 500 Additional books, magazines & online resources Multiple 40 Printing and binding final report Multiple 500 Transportation and Communications Access to RGU and associated services: Academic resources/databases World wide web/email account 1/4th 9,500 RGU CAQDAS software (cost based on tuition fee for module) TOTAL PROJECT COST
Table 6: Resource Requirements
Total 3,000
600
2,375
Total
2,250
2,375
14,890
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IO CT
R TE
IN
Figure 9: PB Development
(Source: Author)
Therefore, it can be concluded that the PB will be the combination of all three mentioned baselines. Furthermore, the development of the PB will include building
IN
TE R
TI O N
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a WBS and establishing the key relationships between scope, schedule, costs and the management of these (IAPPM, 2006; DOE, 2011c, 2011d; Tenrox, 2012).
1.8.2. PB Development
Other key element related to the assessment of the PB maturity is to determine which are the stages where the PB development processes take place. Thus, it would be possible to assess which are the core components affecting to its robustness.
In this regard, the main project management associations state that the PB is established in the project plan (PP), and that it will be periodically updated through change management processes (APM, 2006; PMI, 2008; IPMA, 2008). Thereby, taking as a reference the APM PLC model (APM, 2010), the Mobilisation phase is recognised to be the project stage when the project will be definitely baselined (PB is frozen), previously to the implementation phase where PB will be utilised for monitoring and controlling the project (See Figures 12 and 13).
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Figure 12: APM PLC Models Source: APM, Introduction to Project Control (2010)
However, PB Development is not a process focused on a concrete project stage, but a continuous and iterative process throughout the PLC which begins at the earliest phases of it. In this regard, the PB matures as more data and analysis provide more detailed definition and level of detail. (DOE, 2011c; Alleman, 2012)
STRATEGIC BC BUSINESS CASE FINAL DATA SETS PB FROZEN
PB MATURITY
(Source: Author)
PMP
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This progress of the PB across the initial project stages is clearly reflected on the DOE Performance Baseline Guide (2011), which details the evolution of the different components of the PB across the PLC (See Table 7).
PB COMPONENT
Technical Baseline Schedule Baseline Cost Baseline
Transition/ Closeout
As-built configuration baseline Actual completion date Actual project costs
Preliminary Preliminary design functions and requirements requirements baseline from pre- conceptual design Order of magnitude project duration and forecast need date Order of magnitude cost estimate Preliminary schedule and milestones Preliminary cost estimates
Table 7: PB Progress
(Source: Author)
Thereupon, to be able to assess which are the key elements that contribute to the development of a mature performance baseline, this research project will pay special attention to the processes undertaken for managing and controlling the project during this period, as well as to the tools utilised for that purpose. After analyzing reputed literature sources, it has been noticed that despite this concept has been known from the earliest days of the project management
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discipline, the FEL remains as an ambiguous concept which is called in a number different ways depending on the authors, and also on the type of industry (Morris, 2011). Thus, all these names refer to the same o very similar reality: FEP (Front-end planning) FEL (Front-end loading) FEED (Front-end engineering design) PPP (Pre-project planning) EPP (Early project planning)
This wide variety of approaches used to reflect the same concept may be indicative that this concept has not been adequately addressed in the different project management bodies of knowledge. However, this lack of a clear understanding by the main project management associations has not affected to his significance in terms of the utility of adding information during these initial stages when uncertainty is highest and the project concept is conceived (George, Bell and Back, 2008). Thereby, this utility may be also traduced in terms of decision-makers flexibility and cost of making amendments (Willians, Samset and Sunnevag, 2009). This is illustrated in Figure 15.
Regarding this, several studies and literature refers to the FEL as a key element to improve project performance (Yun, Suk, Dai and Mulva, 2012; Gibson and Bosfield, 2012; CERF, 2004). Thus, inadequate front-end planning has been considered one of the most significant contract and project management issue identified by the U.S Department of Energy (DOE, 2008b, 2011d). Moreover, the Construction Industry Institute (CII) includes this project phase within the key elements to improve project performance (CII, 2012). Finally, others authors like Kerzner (2009) and
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Willians, Sunnevag and Samset (2009), mention the quality front end planning as a critical success factor for mega projects.
1.8.4. PB Maturity
Researchers have identified in previous studies that PB development will be affected by several elements: people involved in the development process, baselining processes, tools and method utilised for project definition (DOE, 2011c; 2011d; 2011e; Flydjer, 2007; Alleman, 2012).
In this connection, it is out of discussion that capabilities and experience of people involved in the early stages of the project will affect to the development of the PB.
Thereby, several studies undertaken by the U.S DOE include the lack of personnel with the appropriate skills as root cause for not completing the front end planning to an appropriate level before establishing the performance baseline (DOE, 2011b; 2011d). Also Steven Meier, in a study undertaken in 2008, including more than 30
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US Department of Defence billionaire projects; pointed to inexperience workforce as a key element for the development of unrealistic baselines which contribute to generate project failure. In the same way, Flyvbjerg (2007) concluded that some of the major reasons for inaccuracy of project baseline data in large infrastructure projects were due to political pressures, overoptimism and cognitive biases. On the other hand, it has also been found that Baselining Processes are other key element affecting to the creation and progress of the PB across the PLC. Accordingly, these iterative processes should define how to build the technical/scope baseline, the schedule baseline and the cost baseline as well as reflect the relationships between the different components which constitute the PB (DOE, 2011c; Alleman, 2012).
LE U E ED IN H EL SC AS B
K PE E O L IN SC SE A B
PI
In this sense, it has been noted that these processes, despite not being standardized, have been widely investigated by contractors and have been shared and adopted informally by project management organizations (DOE, 2011c). Finally, other factor affecting to the development of the PB is the level of definition of the project in each one of the project stages. In this sense, Project Definition tools and methods utilised by project teams during the early stages of the project will be responsible of the evolution in the definition of the project scope, and therefore it will affect to the levels of project uncertainty in the different stages which are directly related to the PB construction.
B CO A SE ST LI N E
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These tools and methods for project definition are extensively reported in literature and the may be divided into three main categories: Systems Engineering, Alternatives Analysis and Front End Planning. (DOE, 2011c)
It has been observed that abundant research about the significance of these elements has been undertaken in the last years (Gruhl, 1992; Honour, 2004; Jergeas, 2008). Thus, several tools for: cost-benefit analysis, lifecycle cost analysis, benchmarking, functional analysis, gap analysis, requirements definition, etc, have been created and tailored for being utilised into different industries and type of projects.
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only related to the development of the baseline, and in this sense less attention has been put on the question of how the management and control frameworks utilised during these early stages of the project may affect to the PB. In others words, how can we know that a PB built upon all those tools and methodologies fits for purpose.
CHANGE CONTROL
ITIO EFIN T D DS JEC O PRO METH
LE U E ED IN H EL SC AS B
PI
PB MATURITY
PE E O L IN SC SE A B C A O SE ST LI N E
P I N EO VO PL LV E ED
G IN I N ES EL SS S E B A OC PR
In this regard, the answer should be obtained from the analysis of those management and control models which drive the progress of the PB across the PLC. Thereby, analysis of the literature shows that traditionally the focus of the main project management associations and authors has be put on the implementation phase of the project, and little contribution has been made related to the control processes during the initial phases of the project (APM, 2010; PMI, 2010; Kerzner, 2009) However, several public organisms and some private associations have put their attention on the fact that project delays and cost overruns still remain as frequent issues affecting dramatically to the major capital investments. (DOE, 2011d; NASA, 2010; ANAO, 2012).In this way, they have contributed to the project management knowledge through the development of frameworks which allow to improve the control over the project with special attention to the early stages.
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These gate reviews mark the end of project phases and their function is to check that the project is to measure project objectives accomplishment, and determine whether the project should move to the next stage (APM, 2010).
However this system is far from being a clearly defined framework commonly accepted by the project management community. In this regard, this concept was initially conceived by NASA in the 1960s and called Phases Review Process (PRP), along the years this system has been adopted by other organisms and institutions and nowadays several versions of the gated process are pillar of the project management systems utilized by many governments and private organizations (Maylor, 2010).
39
On the other hand, regarding to the control of the progress of the PB in terms of maturity, these models should allow to assess periodically whether the baseline is mature enough to be a significant contributor to the decision making processes, and therefore whether is evolving properly to become the reference during the implementation phase (Kerzner, 2009; Samset, 2009; HM Treasury, 2011). Nevertheless, few of them stress on the PB maturity as a factor to be specifically controlled and consequently it is complicated to assess which is the most suitable model from a PB maturity contribution perspective. In this regard, next chapter will continue seeking to clarify these issues.
40
(Source: Author)
This Primary Research will follow the structure shown in Figure 25.
41
During the elaboration of this document the Robert Gordon university Research Ethics policy has been the valid reference, for this purpose it has been taken in account the following RGU procedures (RGU, 2009): Policies relating to Research and Knowledge Transfer Research Governance Policy Research Ethics Policy Commercialisation Reward Sharing Policy Intellectual Property Rights (IPR) Policy
42
CHAPTER 2
LITERATURE REVIEW
43
44
Help refine, refocus or even change the topic (Boote & Beile, 2005).
Literature search and review will be an early activity for most Research Projects. In spite of this early start, it is usually necessary to continue searching throughout the PLC. Thus, it may be considered as an iterative method which utilizes the new knowledge generated through the literature review to get back and refine the process improving the final written critical literature review (Saunders, Lewis, Thornhill and Jenkins, 2003).
45
English Project Management, Performance Baseline Public Major Investments Western Europe, North America, Australia 2007-2012 Books, journals, articles, thesis, reports, websites, databases, blogs
Table 8: Search Parameters
46
47
SOURCES OF INFORMATION PROJECT MANAGEMENT INSTITUTE www.pmi.org APM www.apm.org.uk CONTRUCTION www.construction-institute.org PMI www.pmi.org IPMA http://www.ipma.ch/ ASAPM http://asapm.org/ P. DEVEL & M. ASSOCIATION http://www.pdma.org/ EMERALD www.emeraldinsight.com SCIENCE DIREC www.sciencedirect.com INTERNATIONAL NEWSSTAND BUSINESS SOURCE PREMIER ELSEVIER ASCELIBRARY DSPACE WILEY ONLINE LIBRARY TAYLOR FRANCIS ONLINE IEEE SPRINGERLINK PM NETWORK ONLINE www.newsstand.co.uk www.ebscohost.com www.elsevier.com http://ascelibrary.org http://dspace.mit.edu http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com www.tandfonline.com http://ieeexplore.ieee.org www.springerlink.com http://www.pmi.org/KnowledgeCenter/Publications-PMNetwork.aspx http://www.journals.elsevier.co m/international-journal-ofproject-management/ www.projectmagazine.com www.pmtoday.co.uk http://www.pm4dev.com/resour ces/pm-ejournal.html http://www.projectsatwork.com/
DATA BASES
INT. JOURNAL OF PM PROJECT MAGAZINE PROJECT MANAGER TODAY PM CONNECT JOURNAL PROJECTS @ WORK MAGAZINE
Table 9: Sources of Information
48
The organization allows information to be made available for scrutiny by other researchers. To have information sufficient to provide results of interest and relevance Information Quality which can be applied in a general context. Time Series Organisations should provide comparative information over time. For the Analysis purposes of this research project, retrospective information is preferable to (database) estimates of future costs. Sample validity The organisations must be able to provide a good sample for obtaining valid and reliability and reliable information. It is measured basing on the breath of range of the projects that are Applicability managed under each organisation model. The source may be able to provide some illustrative material to assist in Illustrative Material understanding potential relationships between then FEL management and availability controlling frameworks and the PB maturity. Alignment Level of alignment with this research project goals, objectives and priorities. Capability Capabilities & Professional Standing of the Organisation.
Table 10: Selection Criteria
In this regard, the different criteria were assessed using a 1 to 10 scale of suitability, furthermore each one has been weighted taken in account the perceived relative importance for the decision about the suitability of the organisation for the purpose of this research project. (See further details about the criteria selection and weighting process in Appendix 2).
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SELECTION MATRIX
Illustrative Material availability Sample validity and reliability
Information Quality
Weight 20% 15% 10% 10% 20% 10% 10% 5% US Department of Defence MH Treasury (UK) The Office of Government Commerce (UK) UK National Audit Office MoD Acquisition Operating Framework (UK) The United States Department of the Treasury Government Accountability office (USA) ICEC (International Cost Engineering Council) AACE Norwegian Quality Assurance CII (Construction Industry Institute) U.S Department of Energy (DOE) Treasury Board of Canada Secretariat (TBS) DFA Gateway Review Process (Australia)
5 5 7 6 6 6 6 5 5 7 7 9 7 8
8 6 7 6 5 8 6 6 6 7 8 8 7 7
4 5 8 7 7 7 5 6 6 8 7 7 7 7
4 6 6 6 7 5 6 7 5 7 8 8 6 6
6 3 7 5 5 6 5 6 5 8 6 6 7 7
5 7 8 7 6 6 5 6 6 9 6 8 7 6
5 6 7 6 5 6 6 7 6 7 8 8 7 7
5 6 7 6 7 5 5 5 6 7 8 7 6 7
5,45 5,2 7,1 6 5,8 6,25 5,55 5,95 5,5 7,5 7,1 7,65 6,85 7
Based on the results reflected in Table 11 it has been decided that the most suitable models that will be utilized for the purpose of this research project will be: U.S Department of Energy CII (Construction Industry Institute) OGC (UK) DFA (Australia) TBS (Canada) Norwegian Quality Assurance Scheme
WEIGHTED TOTAL 50
Accessibility
ORGANISATIONS
Applicability
Alignment
Capability
The analysis involves a throughout review of cost estimates, but it also includes an assessment of project risks and uncertainties, as well as a review of the contract type, project organization, etc (NTNU, 2012).
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The aim of this model is to provide the Government with an independent analysis of the project before the budget is approved by Parliament. This assessment should help to justify the final decision regarding the funding of the project, and should be utilized during implementation as a valid reference for controlling the project performance (Klakegg, 2012; Klakegg, Williams and Magnussen, 2007).
(Source: Author)
52
53
This Gateway Process is undertaken by independent reviewers from outside the project or the programme, who examine the progress and likelihood of successful delivery.
EXTENDED PROJECT LIFE CYCLE PROJECT LIFE CYCLE
CONCEPT DEFINITION IMPLEMENTATION (Design&Build) HANDOVER OPERATIONS TERMINATION &CLOSEOUT
BUSINESS CASE
APM
INITIATION
INITIATION PLANNING Initiation Review
CONCEPT
PRELIMINARY PLANNING Concept Review
DEFINITION
DETAILED PLANNING Definition Review
MOBILISATION
BASELINING
PB FROZEN
PMP
IMPLEMENTATION
RE-PLANNING RE-BASELINING Handover Review Compl.Review
CLOSEOUT
Mobilisation Rev.
Closeout Review
GATEWAY REVIEW 0
GATEWAY REVIEW 1
GATEWAY REVIEW 2
GATEWAY REVIEW 3
GATEWAY REVIEW 4
GATEWAY REVIEW 5
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BUSINESS CASE
APM
INITIATION
INITIATION PLANNING Initiation Review
CONCEPT
PRELIMINARY PLANNING Concept Review
DEFINITION
DETAILED PLANNING Definition Review
MOBILISATION
BASELINING
PB FROZEN
PMP
IMPLEMENTATION
RE-PLANNING RE-BASELINING Handover Review Compl.Review
CLOSEOUT
Mobilisation Rev.
Closeout Review
GATEWAY REVIEW 0
GATEWAY REVIEW 1
GATEWAY REVIEW 2
GATEWAY REVIEW 3
GATEWAY REVIEW 4
GATEWAY REVIEW 5
55
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This model proposes three different stage gates within the FEL of the project (See Fig 36), which are controlled applying the PDRI. This tool allows project teams to calculate the completeness of the project scope through a comprehensive scope definition element checklist (Construction Research Congress, 2012; ASCE, 2012).
CONSTRUCTION INDUSTRY INSTITUTE (USA) Project Sponsor Process Owner: 3 (both within the Project Front End) N of Gateways: Internal External/Internal Resources PDRI Control Basis Alignment Thermometer Defined Review (assessor) roles Standard review report format Report Format CII Academic Comittee Coordination Spheres Review Board Support Organisation Sponsoring Company (private) Decision Makers: Score based system (checklist) Characteristic: Recommendations Influence: By influence Authority Scope definition, team alignment Review Focus Risk management Review Aim
Table 16: CII Model Features
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The major emphasis of this model is put on the extent of project definition in the conceptual design phase of the project that includes CD-1(Approval of alternative selection and cost range). It is considered that by CD-2 (Approval of project baseline), the project scope definition should be essentially complete.
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Furthermore, it is important to note that the scope of the reviews includes not only the assessment of the level of project definition but also technological aspects related to the project, and makes specific emphasis on the control of the PB progress. In this regard, this model utilises several tools for reviewing the evolution of the project from both external and internal perspectives. Thus, it can be highlighted the Project Definition Rating Index (PDRI) and the Technology Readiness Assessment (TRA). Main features of this model have been reflected on Table 17 below.
Process Owner: N of Gateways: External/Internal Resources Control Basis Review (assessor) roles Report Format Coordination Spheres Support Organisation Decision Makers: Characteristic: Influence: Authority Review Focus Review Aim
US DOE PDRI MODEL OECM 5 (3 within the FEL) External and/or Internal PDRI TRA Defined in detail Standard review report format Centre of Excellence NNSA, EM SAE (Secretarial Acquisition Executive) Multi-purpose assessment Management of expectations Mandatory Technical/Scope, Management, PB Contract and Project Management performance improvement
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Strategic assessment and Confirmation of project objectives concept Project Approach Confirmation of how objectives will be achieved Business Case Confirmation of funding and business outcomes Project Charter/PMP Confirmation of resources, support, and governance Detailed Project Plan Confirmation of readiness to proceed with construction Readiness to deploy Confirmation of readiness to deploy Post-implementation review Gather lesson learned
Table 18: TBS Gate Reviews Focus
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TREASURY BOARD OF CANADA SECRETARIAT (TBS) Chief Information Officer Branch (CIOB) Process Owner: 7 (4 within the FEL) N of Gateways: External External/Internal Resources Review Definitions / Guidelines Control Basis Defined in detail Review (assessor) roles Standard review report format Report Format Coordination Spheres TBS Support Organisation Senior responsible owner Decision Makers: Complex System Characteristic: Recommendations Influence: By influence Authority Business Case Review Focus Assess whether the project is valid, viable and Review Aim properly resourced.
Table 19: TBS Model Features
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Thereby, it has been identified that there is a clear strategic management perspective in the UK OGC model. This approach is reflected on the inclusion of an initial review, located at a programme level, which is aimed to assess the direction and planned outcomes of the programme (OGC, 2007a). Nevertheless, the Australian and Canadian approaches, despite taking in account the strategic
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objectives of the project, are not so focused on the programme level and prefer to concentrate on the project context. Continuing the analysis of the models, it has been found that the UK OGC framework was initially developed for being used on procurement projects, and despite it has evolved to be applied on non-procurement projects, it is clear that this model still maintains a structure more focused on the procurement lifecycle than in a traditional PLC (Scottish Government, 2011). The same conclusion may be applied to the Australian version, also full of references to the procurement and contract management stages of the project. On the contrary, the Canadian model, despite being originally created for IT projects, uses a methodology that can be adapted for a wide range of project types, size and complexity (TBS, 2010b). Other element which constitutes a clear difference between these models is that they utilise different assessment tools to decide whether the requirements to move to the next stage have been accomplished. Thus, the focus of the different models is oriented to particular objectives defined by each one of the agencies.
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Other difference that is easily noticeable is that the gate reviews which are taken in account from the CII perspective are concentrated on the FEL (Gibson, et al., 2004); meanwhile, the DOE includes gate reviews or Critical Decisions all along the PLC. Furthermore regarding the level of detail of both models, it can be concluded that the DOE model is a more detailed framework where the critical decisions are underpinned by several internal and external reviews all along the PLC (DOE, 2008a), focusing control on different objectives. Meanwhile, the CII model is more a set of Best Practices than a real well organized model for managing and controlling the FEL, thus it is focused on assessing the maturity of the organisation through a weighted check list which provide a final score indicating the maturity of the organisation. It has been found several studies undertaken by this organisation detailing how increasing this score based on the application of best practices affects positively to the avoiding of project failures (CII, 2012).
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The first difference which can be noticed is that the OGC model establishes 6 gate reviews all along the PLC meanwhile the Norwegians model only apply two. Furthermore, control over the project starts in the OGC model at a Programme level, continuing later analysing how it could fit from a strategic point of view; however the Norwegian approach is more focused initially on analysing the project concept to decide whether go ahead (Christensen, 2009). Continuing the comparison of these models, it has been noticed that the OGC model is a non mandatory procedure which is used as a recommendation however the QA is mandatory and an element used by politicians to take decision on whether or not go ahead (HM Treasury, 2011; NTNU, 2012; Klakegg, Williams and Magnussen, 2007). On the other hand, from a governance perspective, the OGC framework goals are more explicit, administratively focused, and measured in terms of money. In Norway, there are more clearly politically anchored goals, but not specifying the
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expected effect of implementation (Klakegg, Williams, Magnussen and Glasspool, 2008). Finally, in the Norwegian model, the control measures are focused on cost and risk (moving more toward benefit and value), whereas the U.K. approach is focused on the business case/value for money (Klakegg, Willians, Magnussen and Glasspool, 2008).
2.6.4. DOE/Norway
It has been noted few similarities between these two models, thus the DOE model is supported by several tools to measure levels of project definition and technology evolution across the PLC meanwhile the Norwegian framework is using only guides to undertake the reviews. Furthermore, the reviews proposed are only external in the European while include both external/internal in the American.
Finally it has also been found differences on the approach utilised by both models, thus the DOE focus reviews on a wide range of aspects to ensure that no elements within the technical or managerial areas have been neglected before moving to the next step, however the Norwegian QA Scheme is only oriented to ensure that concept and cost estimations have been properly addressed before the important decisions to be taken.
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CONTEXT
DOE
CII
OGC
DFA
TBS
Norway
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69
CHAPTER 3
METHODOLOGY AND METHOD
70
71
72
Regarding this, the main research paradigms have been briefly compared in Table 21.
POSITIVISM ONTOLOGY (Researchers view of reality) EPISTEMOLOGY (Researchers view of what constitutes acceptable knowledge) AXIOLOGY Researchers view of the role of values in research DATA COLLECTION (Techniques Most often used) RESEARCH APPROACH External, objective and independent of social actors Only observable phenomena / facts Value-free / researcher is independent of process Highly structured / Quantitative Deductive INTERPRETIVISM Socially constructed, subjective Subjective meanings and social phenomena Value-bound / researcher is part of process In-depth / Qualitative Inductive PRAGMATISM View chosen to best answer research question Both observable phenomena and subjective meanings Values may play a role in interpretation Mixed or multiple method designs Deductive and Inductive as appropriate
Based on the particular aim and objectives of this research project, it will be adopted a Positivist position. Accordingly, it is considered that only phenomena which we can be noticed through our senses can produce the type knowledge that this project is seeking. In this regard, this position supports the utilization of experimentation and testing to prove hypotheses (deductive) and then generate new theory by putting facts together to induce laws or principles (inductive) (Greener, 2008).
3.3.1. Quantitative/Qualitative
A quantitative approach to research is usually associated with a deductive approach to testing theory, often using number or fact and therefore a positivist model. On the other hand, a qualitative approach is normally related to an inductive approach to generating theory, often utilizing an interpretivist model (Zhang and Wildemuth, 2009).
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QUANTITATIVE Role of theory in research Ontological orientation Epistemological orientation Deductive, testing of theory Objectivism social reality is external Positivism & Natural science model
QUALITATIVE Inductive, generating theory Constructionism (subjectivism) social phenomenon dependent on the actors Interpretivism role of social actors
For the purpose of this project research, it has been considered that the most appropriate position will be the quantitative approach. This perspective will allow looking at observable objective facts and figures where they might be seen to exist. However, despite quantitative data will be the basis to obtain the main conclusions, in some cases, it could be also necessary to take in account the perceptions of those involved with these facts (Greener, 2008).
3.3.2. Deductive/Inductive
Major differences between both approaches have been included in Table 23.
DEDUCTION EMPHASISES Scientific principles. Moving from theory to data. The need to explain causal relationships between variables. The collection of quantitative data The application of controls to ensure validity of data. The operationalisation of concepts to ensure clarity of definition. A highly structured approach researcher independence of what is being researched. The necessity to select samples of sufficient size in order to generalize conclusions. INDUCTION EMPHASISES Gaining an understanding of the meanings humans attach to events. A close understanding of the research context. The collection of qualitative data. A more flexible structure to permit changes of research emphasis as the research progresses. A realisation that the researcher is part of the research process. Less concern with the need to generalise.
This research project will be undertaken by combination of both approaches, thus a deductive approach would be clearly related to the use of quantitative data meanwhile an inductive one would be linked to the development of a theory as a result of data analysis (Saunders, Lewis, Thornhill and Jenkins, 2009).
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EXPLORATORY
Exploratory research is undertaken when few or no previous studies exist. The aim is to look for patterns, hypothesis or ideas that can be tested and will form the basis for further research. Typical research techniques would include case studies, observation and review the previous related studies and data.
DESCRIPTIVE
Descriptive research can be used to identify and classify the elements or characteristics of the subject. Quantitative techniques are often used to collect, analyse and summarise data.
ANALYTICAL
Analytical research often extends the Descriptive approach to suggest or explain why or how something is happening. An important feature of this type of research is in locating and identifying the different factors (or variables) involved.
PREDICTIVE
The aim of the predictive research is to speculate intelligently on future possibilities, based on close analysis of available evidence of cause and effect.
Taking in account the Table 24 this research project can be defined as a combination of Explanatory and Analytical categories. Thus research project looks to establish a causal relationship between variables involved and at the same time the study pretends to clarify why and how this relationship exists (Saunders, Lewis, Thornhill and Jenkins, 2009).
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Limitations
Surveys are comparatively inexpensive Usually, it has high reliability and is easy to obtain Can be administered from remote locations with large samples Highly dependent on people for information Data collected reflects only the questions asked due to its structured format Surveys are inflexible and require the initial study design
QUESTIONNAIRE
Advantages
Questionnaires are more objective than interviews because the responses are gathered in a uniform and standardized format. It is relatively quick to collect information using questionnaire Possibility of generating large amounts of data which can take a long time to process and analyse.
Limitations
Unstructured Interview: Suitable for project advanced phase as they permit full exploration of ideals and views providing the researcher with detail understanding of the problem Semi-structured Interviews: It creates a Positive rapport between researcher and respondent It provides a simple, efficient and practical process of getting data about things that are unobservable Advantages All respondent are evaluated and asked the same questions in the same order, hence making the method time and cost effective. Focus Group Interview: Reasonably easy to assemble and provides inexpensive and flexible form of data collection Its open recording approach allows participants to confirm their contributions It creates rapport and ensures validity of desired outcomes through direct interactions between researcher and participants Unstructured Interviews Unstructured interviews requires interviewers to have a rich set of skills The information from the respondent may be huge and too unconnected for the researcher to analyses Semi-structured Interviews The flexibility of this methods may lessen reliability The data are difficult to analyse and compare Limitations Structural Interviews May not provides legitimate and reliable answers It not controlled, it may provide weak understanding into the topic under study Focus Group Interview Research findings may not represent the views and opinion of the larger sections of the population if right selection of respondent is not made. Requires hard and people management skills to achieve result. Serves as good method for the study uncommon phenomena. The data collected is normally a lot richer and of greater depth than can be found through other experimental designs. Advantages Case studies allow a lot of detail to be collected that would not normally be easily obtained by other research designs. Case studies can help experimenters adapt ideas and produce novel hypotheses which can be used for later testing. It is difficult to generalize and draw definite cause-effect conclusions. Limitations Data collection and interpretation are subject to biases. Insufficient information can lead to inappropriate results
CASE STUDY
INTERVIEW
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Provides access to research respondent at distant locations and who are difficult to contact. Advantages It provides ease of having computerized data collection, which increases efficiency and reduces researcher time and effort. Provides greater uncertainty over the legitimacy of data and sampling issues It requires computer skills for the design, implementation, and evaluation of the survey
Limitations
OBSERVATION
Advantages
Limitations
The researcher can observe and record events without necessary relying on the willingness and ability of participant to the research Reduces or eliminate the biasing effect of interviewers It is often difficult to observe respondents attitudes, motivations, state of mind, and their buying motives and underlying principles. It also takes time for the investigator to wait for a particular action to take place.
Table 25: Research Strategies
It has been considered that several of these methods must be utilised to be able to obtain relevant results from this research project (See Appendix 7 for a detailed flow chart of the process). Hence, the basis for the research should be the Case Studies that will be analysed to measure how PB maturity evolves. However the way to initially select and then gather information about these Case Studies will be through questionnaires (See Figures 48 and 49) that will be designed basing on those parameters that literature review has revealed as directly related to the maturity of the PB.
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78
Moreover, this information that should be provided initially by the collaborating organisms (previously contacted and engaged to the project, see Appendix 3 for further details), could need to be completed with further analysis of key features of those projects (Case Studies) to ensure the accuracy and validity of data. For this reason, it is also believed that interviews (unstructured) and additional information review (See Figure 50) may be also utilised when the complexity of some of the projects indicates that a closer contact with the organism controlling the performance of the project is necessary to improve the quality of the results.
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80
81
Sample is chosen for ease or convenience rather than through random sampling. The researcher uses his/her judgement to select population members who are good prospects for accurate information. This sample is chosen to include a certain proportion of particular variables. There is no random sampling stage (the choice of the respondent is up to the interviewer provided the profile/quota is accurate). The researcher contacts an initial group of people relevant to the research topic, and then uses this group to contact others for the research. Each element in the population has a known and equal probability of selection The sample is chosen by selecting a random starting point and then picking every ith element in succession from the sampling frame. The sampling interval, i, is determined by dividing the population size N by the sample size n and rounding to the nearest integer A two-step process in which the population is partitioned into subpopulations, or strata. The strata should be mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive in that every population element should be assigned to one and only one stratum and no population elements should be omitted. Next, elements are selected from each stratum by a random procedure, usually SRS. The target population is first divided into mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive subpopulations, or clusters. Then a random sample of clusters is selected, based on a probability sampling technique such as SRS.
Table 26: Sampling Techniques
Quota
SAMPLING TECHNIQUES
PROBABILITY Stratified
Cluster
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Sampling Techniques utilised in this project are both Non-Probability type. Concretely it was used a Judgmental technique to select the sampling frame and a Quota technique to define the Research Project Sample (See point 3.6.6).
ORGANISATION CII U.S DOE UK (OGC) TBS (Canada) DFA (Australia) QA Scheme (Norway) Total
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PROJECT TYPES Number of projects managed Civil Engineering/Construction/ Petrochemical Projects Management/IT Projects Av. Dur.
DAv12
Av. Budget
BAv11
Av. Dur.
DAv11
Av. Budget
BAv12
Av. Budget
BAv13
Av. Dur.
DAv13
Organism
N1
BAv1
DAv1
N11
N12
N13
Additional Questions: Is there any specific procedure to measure the progress of the PB across the PLC of the projects? If yes, add some details. Which are the parameters that you consider should be measured to determine which is the level of maturity of the PB?
Table 28: Request for Collaboration (Preliminary Questionnaire)
This Preliminary Questionnaire can certainly help in understanding the various aspects of the collaborating organisations, as well as some relevant information about the different perspectives from which PB is currently analysed within each one of them. Hence, some of the conclusions obtained after the assessment of these data may help to improve the design of the detailed questionnaire which will be utilized to obtain relevant data from the selected case studies.
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PROJECT TYPES Civil Engineering/Construction/P etrochemical Projects (Type 1) Management/IT Projects (Type 3) Av. Dur. N Av. Budget Av. Dur. DAv12 DAv22 DAv32 DAv42 DAv52 DAv62 N13 N23 N33 N43 N53 N63 BAv13 BAv23 BAv33 BAv43 BAv53 BAv63 DAv13 DAv23 DAv33 DAv43 DAv53 DAv63 Manufacturing/Product development Projects (Type 2) Av. Dur. N Av. Budget DAv11 DAv21 DAv31 DAv41 DAv51 DAv61 N12 N22 N32 N42 N52 N62 BAv12 BAv22 BAv32 BAv42 BAv52 BAv62
ORGANISM
Av. Budget
N1 N2 N3 N4 N5 N6
On the other hand, the sample size will be designed using these data and taking in account the criteria that have been detailed in Table 30. Those criteria seek to create a homogeneous sample which allows to obtain relevant results which help to build a robust framework for managing and controlling the project.
SAMPLE FEATURES Budget Range Duration Range Number of projects range Lower Limit Upper Limit Lowe Limit Upper Limit Type 1 Type 2 Type 3
CRITERIA Min (BAv1, BAv2, BAv3, BAv4,BAv5,BAv6) Max (BAv1, BAv2, BAv3, BAv4,BAv5,BAv6) Min (DAv1, DAv2, DAv3, DAv4,DAv5,DAv6) Max (DAv1, DAv2, DAv3, DAv4,DAv5,DAv6) 1<NT1<(Ni1)/6 1<NT2<(Ni2)/6 1<NT3<(Ni3)/6 5<(NT1+NT2+NT3)<10
Based on the analysis of the preliminary Request for Collaboration, a more detailed questionnaire will be developed specific to the measurement and comparison of the different PB components.
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3.6.7. Piloting
A pilot study will be previously undertaken to discover any issue related to the design of the questionnaires in terms of the degree of clarity and its validity. Two phases will be conducted for the purpose of testing the reliability, utility, and clarity of the questionnaires. Firstly, questionnaires design will be critiqued by other members of the MSc Project Management Course, to obtain valuable feedback and suggestions. Secondly, the MSc Project Management course leader will be invited to review the pilot version of the questionnaires.
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This measurement will be undertaken for each one of the performance baseline components (Scope Baseline, Cost Baseline and Schedule Baseline), and in this regard different parameters may be utilized to reflect the level of maturity having been considered the percentage of deviation from the final data set as the initially valid reference.
Furthermore, to achieve a better homogeneity in the study a complexity index will be added to weight the value of the results obtained in each case study basing on the rate of expenditure of the project (See Table 30).
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This is a high level draft including some of the parameters that could be measured through the questionnaire, but they could change depending on the answers to the initial Request for Collaboration. The main purpose of this questionnaire is to calculate the level of maturity (expressed on a percentage over the final data obtained at the end of each stage) for the technical/cost/schedule baseline at each stage of the project.
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CASE STUDY
BASELINE COMPONENTS
CASE STUDY 1 CASE STUDY 2 CASE STUDY 3 CASE STUDY 4 ORGANISATION CASE STUDY 5 CASE STUDY 6 CASE STUDY 7 CASE STUDY 8 CASE STUDY 9 CASE STUDY 10
Cost Baseline Schedule Baseline Scope Baseline Cost Baseline Schedule Baseline Scope Baseline Cost Baseline Schedule Baseline Scope Baseline Cost Baseline Schedule Baseline Scope Baseline Cost Baseline Schedule Baseline Scope Baseline Cost Baseline Schedule Baseline Scope Baseline Cost Baseline Schedule Baseline Scope Baseline Cost Baseline Schedule Baseline Scope Baseline Cost Baseline Schedule Baseline Scope Baseline Cost Baseline Schedule Baseline Scope Baseline
CB11 ScB11 SB11 CB21 ScB21 SB21 CB31 ScB21 SB21 CB21 ScB21 SB21 CB21 ScB21 SB21 CB21 ScB21 SB21 CB21 ScB21 SB21 CB21 ScB21 SB21 CB21 ScB21 SB21 CB21 ScB21 SB21
CB12 ScB12 SB12 CB22 ScB22 SB22 CB32 ScB22 SB22 CB22 ScB22 SB22 CB22 ScB22 SB22 CB22 ScB22 SB22 CB22 ScB22 SB22 CB22 ScB22 SB22 CB22 ScB22 SB22 CB22 ScB22 SB22
CB13 ScB13 SB13 CB23 ScB23 SB23 CB33 ScB23 SB23 CB23 ScB23 SB23 CB23 ScB23 SB23 CB23 ScB23 SB23 CB23 ScB23 SB23 CB23 ScB23 SB23 CB23 ScB23 SB23 CB23 ScB23 SB23
ORGANISATION
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Finally the different results obtained after analyzing the different case studies will be reflected in Table 33. This will allow to compare how the different baseline components evolve under each management and control perspective along the PLC. Main conclusions must be obtained analyzing this matrix.
STAGE 1 STAGE 2 STAGE 3 BASELINE ELEMENTS Cost Baseline Schedule Baseline Scope Baseline Cost Baseline Schedule Baseline Scope Baseline Cost Baseline Schedule Baseline Scope Baseline Cost Baseline Schedule Baseline Scope Baseline Cost Baseline Schedule Baseline Scope Baseline Cost Baseline Schedule Baseline Scope Baseline STAGE 4
ORGANISMS
U.S DOE
AvCBi1 AvCBi2 AvCBi3 AvCBi4 AvScBi1 AvScBi2 AvScBi3 AvScBi4 AvSBi1 AvSBi2 AvSBi3 AvSBi4
CII
QA Scheme (Norway)
OGC (UK)
These values will be assessed, trying to obtain relevant conclusions about how the different management and control frameworks affect to the progress of the PB maturity across the PLC.
90
When summarising large amounts of raw data it is often useful to Frequency distribution distribute the data into categories or classes and to determine the number of individuals or cases belonging to each category. When you have a group of data and you wish to find the most Measures of central typical value for the group, or the score which all other scores are tendency evenly clustered around. These statistics are known as the mean, the median and the mode. Measurement of This type of analysis can show you the degree by which numerical dispersion based on data tend to spread about an average value and it is called the mean variation or dispersion. The standard deviation is another measure of the degree in which Standard Deviation the data is spread around the mean.
Table 34: Descriptive Statistic Methods
DESCRIPTIVE STATISTICS
ORGANISM CONCEPT DEFINITION MOBILISATION IMPLEMENTATION COST BASELINE DOE OGC CII TBS NORWAY AUS 80,00% 76,00% 91,00% 75,00% 67,00% 71,00% 60,00% 62,00% 65,00% 45,00% 50,00% 45,00% 37,00% 50,00% 40,00% 42,00% 40,00% 36,00% 12,00% 42,00% 12,00% 29,00% 19,00% 12,00%
91
100,00% 80,00% 60,00% 40,00% 20,00% 0,00% CONCEPT DOE OGC DEFINITION CII TBS MOBILISATION NORWAY IMPLEMENTATION AUS
100,00% 80,00% 60,00% 40,00% 20,00% 0,00% CONCEPT DOE DEFINITION OGC CII TBS MOBILISATION NORWAY AUS IMPLEMENTATION
92
93
94
CHAPTER 4
CONCLUSIONS&RECOMMENDATIONS
95
96
97
Processes and tools that can help us to improve the PB maturity After the critical evaluation of related information, it is clear that there are different perspectives to achieve a suitable PB maturity, and that comparison between the main models for managing and controlling projects should help to obtain relevant conclusions and to be able to outline the main processes and tools that should be part of the theoretical framework underpinning the PB maturity.
4.3. RECOMMENDATIONS
The PB Maturity needs to be studied in a variety of project contexts to add more validity to the topic area. It is necessary a deeper understanding of some of the models to be able to design a comparative process that allows obtaining more robust results.
98
CHAPTER 5
REFERENCES
99
5. REFERENCES
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30.FLYVBJERG, B. (2007). How Optimism Bias and Strategic Misrepresentation Undermine Implementation. Available: http://www.concept.ntnu.no/Publikasjoner/Rapportserie/Rapport%2017%20kapi ttelvis/Concept%20173%20Optimism%20Bias%20and%20Strategic%20Misrepresentation.pdf. Last accessed 1st August 2012. 31.FORSBERG, K., MOOZ, H., and COTTERMAN, H. (2005). Visualizing project management. 3rd ed. Canada: John Wiley & Sons. 32.GEORGE, R., BELL, L., and BACK, W. (2008). Critical Activities in the Front-End Planning Process. J. Manage. Eng., 24(2), 6674. 33.GIBSON, E., BOSFIELD, R. (2012). Common Barriers to Effective Front-End Planning Aug 2012. 34.GIBSON, HOOVER, FISH, HERRINGTON, ALBRECHT and TALIB. (2004). Project Definition Rating Index (PDRI) Revisited. Available: http://www.google.co.uk/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=project+definition+rating+index+re visited&source=web&cd=1&cad=rja&ved=0CCUQFjAA&url=http%3A%2F%2Fco nstruction-institute.org%2Fscriptcontent%2Fac2004slides%2Fgi. Last accessed 1st June 2012. 35.GRAY/LARSSON (2008). Project Management the managerial process. 4th ed. Singapore: Mc Graw-Hill. 36.GREENER, S (2008). BUSINESS RESEARCH METHODS. UK: Ventus Publishing ApS. 37.HM TREASURY (2011). Major Project Approval and Assurance Guidance. London(UK): HM TREASURY. 38.HONOUR, E. (2004). Understanding the Value of Systems Engineering. Available: http://www.incose.org/secoe/0103/ValueSE-INCOSE04.pdf. Last accessed 2nd July 2012. 39.IAPPM (International Association of Project and Program Management). (2006). A Guide to the Project & Program Management Body of Knowledge. USA: IAPPM. 40.IPMA (International Project Management Association) (2008). IPMA Competence Baseline. The Netherlands: IPMA. 41.JERGEAS, G. (2008). Analysis of the Front-End Loading of Alberta Mega Oil Sands Projects. Project Management Journal. 39 (4), 95-104. of Capital Projects. Available: http://rebar.ecn.purdue.edu/crc2012/papers/pdfs/-131.pdf. Last accessed 2nd
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42.KERZNER, .H, 2009. Project Management: A Systems Approach To Planning, Scheduling, and Controlling. 10th ed. Hoboken New Jersey: John Wiley and Sons, Inc. 43.KLAKEGG, O.J. (2012). Project assessments and decision gates as governance tools. Available: https://aupri.athabascau.ca/node/309. Last accessed 25th July 2012. 44.KLAKEGG, WILLIAMS and MAGNUSSEN (2007). Design of Innovative Governance Frameworks for Major Public Investment Projects; A Comparative Study of Governance Frameworks in UK and Norway. Norway: IRNOP VIII Project Research Conference. 45.KLAKEGG, WILLIAMS, MAGNUSSEN and GLASSPOOL. (2008). Governance Frameworks for Public Project Development and Estimation. Project Management Journal. 39 (Supplement), 2742. 46.KOTHARI, C. (2004). Research methodology (Methods and Techniques). New Delhi: New Age International Publishers. 47.LESTER, A (2006). Project Management Planning and Control. 5th ed. London: Elsevier Science & Technology Books. 48.LOEDRE, O., OLSSON, N., TORP, O., HANSEN, O. and SAMSET, K. (2003). Managing the Front-End of projects A Bibliographical Guide. Available: http://www.concept.ntnu.no/attachments/058_2003_laerde_frontend_manage ment_of_projects_bibliographical_guide.pdf. Last accessed 6th Aug 2012. 49.MARCZYK, DEMATTEO and FESTINGER (2005). Essentials of Research Design and Methodology. New Jersey: John Wiley & Sons. 50.MAYLOR, H (2010). Project Management. 4th ed. Essex (England): Financial Times Prentice Hall. 51.MEIER, S.R. (2009). Causal Inferences on the Cost Overruns and Schedule Delays of Large-Scale U.S. Federal Defense and Intelligence Acquisition Programs. Project Management Journal. 41 (1), 28-39. 52.MERROW, E (2011). Industrial Megaprojects. USA: John Wiley & Sons, Inc. 53.MORRIS, P. (2011). Managing the Front-End: Back to the beginning. Project Perspectives (IPMA). XXXIII (1), 4-8. 54.NAOUM, S.G (2007). Dissertation Research & Writing for Construction Students. 2nd ed. Oxford, UK: ELSEVIER. 55.NASA (National Aeronautics and Space Administration) (2010). Nasa Space Flight Program and Project Management Requirements. USA: NODIS.
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56.NCDSV (National Center on Domestic and Sexual Violence). (2011). Examples of Data Collection Methods. Available: http://www.ncdsv.org/images/Siebold_ExamplesOfDataCollectionMethods_updat ed_11-7-2011.pdf. Last accessed 12th Aug 2012. 57.NEVILLE, C. (2007). Introduction to Research and Research Methods. Available: http://www.bradford.ac.uk/management/media/management/els/Introductionto-Research-and-Research-Methods.pdf. Last accessed 24th Aug 2012. 58.NTNU. (2012). Ministry of Finance scheme for quality assurance of major public investments . Available: http://www.concept.ntnu.no/qa-scheme. Last accessed 26th July 2012. 59.OGC (Office of Government Commerce). (2007)-a. OGC Gateway Process. Review 0: Strategic assessment. London: Office of Government Commerce. 60.OGC (Office of Government Commerce). (2007)-b. OGC Gateway Process. Review 1: Business Justification. London: Office of Government Commerce. 61.OGC (Office of Government Commerce). (2007)-c. OGC Gateway Process. Review 2: Delivery Strategy. London: Office of Government Commerce. 62.OGC (Office of Government Commerce). (2007)-d. OGC Gateway Process. Review 3: Investment Decision. London: Office of Government Commerce. 63.OGC (Office of Government Commerce). (2007)-e. OGC Gateway Process. Review 4: Readiness for service. London: Office of Government Commerce. 64.OGC (Office of Government Commerce). (2007)-f. OGC Gateway Process. Review 5: Operational Review and Benefits Realisation. London: Office of Government Commerce. 65.ONS (Office for National Statistics). (2012). Sample Design and Estimation. Available: 2012. 66.PALMER, J.,GIBSON, E., BINGHAM, E. (2010). Front End Planning of Railway Projects. Available: http://www.apta.com/mc/rail/previous/2010/Papers/FrontEnd-Planning-of-Railway-Projects.pdf. Last accessed 18th July 2012. 67.PMI (Project Management Institute), (2008). Project Management Body of Knowledge. 4th Ed. Newton Square, Pa.: Project Management Institute. 68.PMI (Project Management Institute), (2010). A Guide to the Project Management Body of Knowledge. 4th ed. Pennsylvania (USA): PMI. http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/guide-method/method-quality/generalmethodology/sample-design-and-estimation/index.html. Last accessed 17th July
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CHAPTER 6
BIBLIOGRAPHY
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6. BIBLIOGRAPHY
1. APM (Association of Project Management), 2011. Directing Change: A guide to governance of project management. Buckinghamshire: England. 2. BRYDE, D. (2008), Perceptions of the impact of project sponsorship practices on project success. International Journal of Project Management 26:8, 800809. 3. CLELAND & R. GAREIS (Eds.), (2006) Global project management handbook: Planning, organizing and controlling international projects. (2nd Ed.) New York: McGraw-Hill. 4. CRAWFORD, L. and COOKE-DAVIES, T.J. (2007), Project Governance The role and capabilities of the executive sponsor. Paper in proceedings 21st IPMA World Congress 2007. Cracow. 5. GARLAND, R. (2009). Project Governance: A Practical Guide to Effective Project Decision Making. London and Philadelphia, Kogan Page Limited. 6. GRAY/LARSON (2008). Project Management (The Managerial Process). 2nd ed. Singapore: Mc Graw Hill. 45-67. 7. KAUFMANN, D. and KRAAY, A. (2007), Governance Indicators: Where Are We, Where Should We Be Going? Policy Research Working Paper 4370. The World Bank, World Bank Institute, Global Governance Group and Development Research Group Macroeconomics and Growth Team. Available at http://web.worldbank.org. 8. KLAKEGG, O. J. (2009). Governance: Recent developments of a messy concept, Norwegian University of Science and Technology, NTNU. 9. KLOPPENBORG, T, 2009. Project Management a Contemporary Approach. Canada: South-Western Cengage Learning 10.LI ZHAI, Y. X., CHAOSHENG CHENG, (2009). Understanding the value of project management from a stakeholders perspective: Case study of megaproject management. Project Management Journal 40(1): 99-109. 11.MATTEN, D. and MOON, J. (2008), Implicit and Explicit CSR: A conceptual framework for a comparative understanding of corporate social responsibility. Academy of Management Review 33:2, pp. 404424. 12.MLLER, R. (2009) Project governance. Fundamentals of project management. Aldershot, UK: Gower Publishing. 13.OAKES, G. (2008) Project reviews, assurance and governance. Aldershot, UK: Gower Publishing Ltd.
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14.REISS, G., M. ANTHONY, et al. (2006). Gower Handbook of Programme Management. Hampshire, England, Gower Publishing. 15.REMINGTON, K., & POLLACK, J. (2007) Tools for complex projects. Aldershot: Gower Publishing. 16.WEAVER, P. (2007). Effective project governance - linking PMIs standards to project governance.PMI Global Congress. Hong Kong. 17.WHITTY, S. J. (2010). Project management artefacts and the emotions they evoke. International Journal of Managing Projects in Business, 3(1), 2245. 18.WILLIAMS, T. M. (2007) Post-project reviews to gain effective lessons learned. Newtown Square, PA: Project Management Institute.
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CHAPTER 7
APPENDICES
109
7. APPENDICES
APPENDIX 1: RESEARCH PROJECT RISK APPENDIX 2: SELECTION CRITERIA WEIGHTING SYSTEM APPENDIX 3: INFORMATION ACCESIBILITY APPENDIX 4: CHANGES LOG APPENDIX 5: RELATED RESEARCH PROJECTS APPENDIX 6: GANTT CHART APPENDIX 7: RESEARCH PROJECT FLOW CHART APPENDIX 8: DATA SET CAPTURING PROCESS
110
111
Based on the risks factors associated to the project and using some of the identification techniques reflected on Table 35, the following risks have been noticed within the context of this research project:
RISK ID
ID-1 ID-2 ID-3 ID-4 ID-5 ID-6 ID-7 ID-8 ID-9 ID-10 ID-11
TITLE
Lack of collaboration
IT failure
DESCRIPTION
Unwillingness of research population to participate in study. Data loss/corruption. Project going off track and not meeting academic requirements. Funding issues / cost escalations. Research results prove inconclusive. Referencing issues and information overload. Not meeting research deadlines. Unavailability of literature and related academic resources.
Inappropriate techniques for data collection.
Lack of quality Cost overruns Analysis issues Lack of organization Project Delays Lack of information
Methods failure Time Confidentiality
People just do not respond in time for you to achieve project done on time.
Issues associated to the ensuring of the confidentiality of the information provided by the collaborating organisms.
Table 36: Identified Risks
RISK ANALYSIS
QUALITATIVE ANALYSIS
SEMI-QUANTITATIVE ANALYSIS
QUANTITATIVE ANALYSIS
Qualitative analysis is based on nominal or descriptive scales for describing the likelihoods and consequences of risks Semi-quantitative analysis extends the qualitative analysis process by allocating numerical values to the descriptive scales. Quantitative analysis uses numerical ratio scales for likelihoods and consequences, rather than descriptive scales.
112
For this report it will be used a Semi-quantitative analysis of the risks (ProbabilityImpact matrix).
Before building the P-I matrix, it was necessary to define the likelihood and impact rankings. Both scales were constructed based on the tables 37 and 38.
PROBABILITY 0,9 Almost certain 0,7 0,5 0,3 0,1 Likely Possible Unlikely Rare
Insignificant Minor Moderate Major Catastrophic 0,05 0,1 0,2 0,4 0,8
IMPACT
Table 38: Impact Scale
The P-I matrix is function of Impact and Probability: f(I,P).Different functions can be used to define the ranking of risk, but for this work it has been used the simplest option:
113
There is no absolute standard for the scale of risk matrices. The score values can be modified depending on the risk appetite of the organisation (Chapman, 2003). Rank
Extreme High Medium Low
Level
Table 40: Risk Scale
Score
0,4-1 0,15-0,4 0,03-015 0-0,03
Based on both the P-I matrix and the risk appetite considerations (see Tables 39 and 40), it has been developed a Prioritisation Matrix to help us to decide whether or not the risk is regarded as tolerable.
PROBABILITY
IMPACT
Table 41: Prioritisation Matrix
114
TITLE
IT failure
QUALITATIVE ASSESSMENT
Prob. Imp. 0,8 0,2 0,4 0,05 0,05 0,1 0,4 0,2 0,5 0,4 0,4 0,56 0,06 0,12 0,025 0,025 0,03 0,04 0,1 0,025 0,04 0,12 0,3 0,3 0,5 0,5
Overall Risk
Catastrophic Medium Medium Low Low Low Medium Medium Low Medium Medium
Lack of collaboration 0,7 Lack of quality Cost overruns Analysis issues Project Delays Lack of information
Methods failure Time Confidentiality
PROBABILITY
Almost certain Likely Possible Unlikely Rare Insignificant 0,05 Minor 0,1 Moderate 0,2 IMPACT
ID-4, ID-5, ID-9 ID-6 ID-8 ID-2 ID-3, ID-11 ID-7, ID-10 ID-1
Major 0,4
Catastrophic 0,8
115
RISK
MITIGATION STRATEGY
Increase level of engagement with key stakeholders to increase commitment and close Lack of collaboration collaboration. Regular backups to minimize the possible affections to the project derived from a failure IT failure of the IT support. Undertake quality control reviews with relevant stakeholders to ensure the final quality of Lack of quality deliverables fits for purpose. Cost overruns Periodic Cost control assessments to avoid deviations from the original cost baseline. Undertake peer reviews to ensure that the conclusions extracted from the gathered Analysis issues information are valid and suitable to be included as part of the case studies. Lack of organization Develop a plan for the development of the different stages of project. This plan should allow a proper control all along the PLC.
Project Delays Establish milestones to measure the evolution of the project and avoid possible delays. Lack of information Methods failure Develop a proper Literature Search Plan that allows an effective search of information covering the most important sources.
Ensure methodology selected for searching information is suitable for the purpose of the project. Effective utilisation of Communication Management tools and techniques for improving Time the transference of information between the researcher and the collaborating organisations. Confidentiality involves controls to ensure that security is maintained when data is both at rest (stored) and in use to protect against unauthorized access or disclosure. These Confidentiality controls will include physical access controls, data encryption and management controls to put in place policies to protect against social engineering and other forms of observational disclosure.
Table 44: Mitigation Strategy
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SUITABILITY OF SOURCES-SELECTION CRITERIA University of California Berkeley University of Wellintong (Victoria) Auburn Montgomery Library ORGANISMS Cornell University Library UCLA Library State University of New York New Mexico State University Library Johns Hopkins University Widener University University of Hawaii www.lib.berkeley.edu/instruct/guides/evaluation.html www.vuw.ac.nz/staff/alastair_smith/evaln/index.htm http://aumnicat.aum.edu/departments/instruction/general/eval uating.html http://olinuris.library.cornell.edu/ref/research/webeval.html www.library.ucla.edu/libraries/college/thinking-criticallyabout-world-wide-web-resources http://library.albany.edu/usered/eval/evalweb/ http://lib.nmsu.edu/instruction/evalcrit.html http://guides.library.jhu.edu/evaluatinginformation www.widener.edu/about/campus_resources/wolfgram_library /evaluate/ www2.hawaii.edu/~nguyen/web/
Table 45: Criteria Sources
The selection of the criteria has been based on the number of organism including it within the key elements making a source suitable for research purposes. Thus, criteria that have been considered are only those mentioned at least in 30% of sources. Furthermore, the weight of the different criteria has been calculated as the percentage over the total of inclusions for that particular criterion. (See Table 46)
CRITERIA Accessibility Information Quality Time Series Analysis (database) Sample validity and reliability Applicability Illustrative Material availability Alignment Capability
N INCLUSIONS 10 7 4 5 10 5 5 3
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DOE (USA)
http://www.concept.ntnu.no/about-theprogramme/for-researchers
OGC (UK)
http://data.gov.uk/ http://www.ogc.gov.uk/ http://www.cabinetoffice.gov.uk/content http://www.cabinetoffice.g /cabinet-office ov.uk/ http://www.cabinetoffice.gov.uk/content /major-projects-authority http://www.finance.gov.a u/gateway/ http://www.finance.gov.au/foi/index.ht ml
DFA (Australia)
TBS (Canada)
CII
118
ID
Change Description Research Area Selection Research Area Selection Research Area Selection Problem Statement (Draft 1) Problem Statement (Draft 2) Problem Statement (Draft 3) Chapter 1 (Draft 1) Chapter 1 (Draft 2) Chapter 2 (Draft 1) Chapter 2 (Draft 2) Chapter 2 (Draft 3) Chapter 3 (Draft 1) Chapter 3 (Draft 2) Chapter 4 (Draft 1) Appendix 4
1 06/05/2012 2 01/06/2012 3 15/06/2012 4 24/06/2012 5 01/07/2012 6 12/07/2012 7 23/07/2012 8 31/07/2012 9 08/08/2012 10 14/08/2012 11 18/08/2012 12 21/08/2012 13 30/08/2012 14 08/09/2012 15 15/09/2012
119
Causal Inferences on the Cost Overruns and Schedule Delays of Large-Scale U.S. Federal Defense and Intelligence Acquisition Programs
Best Project Management and Systems Engineering Practices in the Preacquisition Phase for Federal Intelligence and Defense Agencies
Steven R. Meier
2006
Brian J. Sauser
4 Projects
Case Study
2006
120
RESEARCH TITLE
AUTHOR(S)
SAMPLE SIZE
COMMENTS A research team constituted by the Construction Industry Institute (CII) has developed the Project Definition Rating Index (PDRI) to address scope definition in the building sector. The PDRI validation procedure, involving over 50 projects, will be discussed. A description of the potential uses of the PDRI and a summary of its benefits to the building construction industry will be outlined. (Cho and Gibson, 2001) This research shows examples of the design evolution, and associated cost and schedule growth, for twenty historical NASA missions. Issues behind the cost and schedule growth of missions are varied, but in part may be attributed to systems that have changed substantially from those examined at initial concept through to launch. Historical resource growth is investigated for a variety of missions and mission types to provide guidelines and lessons learned to be used during the initial conceptual design stage for future missions. The data developed for the research should help both project managers and cost and schedule estimators to develop more robust estimates earlier in the design process. (Bitten, Freaner and Emmons, 2010)
DATE
Building project scope Chung-Suk Cho Interviews definition using project Over 50 Projects G. Edward Gibson Jr Case Studies definition rating index
2001
Optimism in Early Conceptual Designs and Robert E. Bitten Its Effect on Cost and Claude W. Freaner Schedule Growth: An Debra L. Emmons, Update
20 NASA missions
2010
121
RESEARCH TITLE
AUTHOR(S)
SAMPLE SIZE
COMMENTS The structure of the report is as follows: First, the quality assurance system will be briefly presented and some of the main questions for analysis and evaluation posed. Second, five different analytical perspectives for analysis will be outlined and related to the quality assurance system. Third, the development of public reforms and politicaladministrative structures, cultures and practice in recent decades will be outlined in a comparative perspective, and the Norwegian quality assurance system will be discussed in relation to this development. Fourth, a concluding analysis and discussion of the quality assurance system will be made, including outlining strengths and weaknesses and possible improvements. (Christensen, 2009) This research investigates how the interface between governance and project management works for public projects. It describes governance frameworks, analyzes embedded governance principles, and discusses the consequences. Based on an initial literature study giving theoretical underpinning, a characterization of frameworks is developed and used to investigate three publicinvestment-project governance frameworks in Norway and the United Kingdom. (Klakeg, Willians, Magnussen and Glasspool, 2008)
DATE
The Norwegian FrontEnd Governance Regime of Major Public Projects a Theoretically Based Analysis
Tom Christensen
Literature Review
2009
2008
122
RESEARCH TITLE
AUTHOR(S)
SAMPLE SIZE
COMMENTS Project professionals are not good at detecting or acting on early warning signs (EWS). Barriers that lead to this are identified. The nature of EWS and their detection change with the evolving situation. Project assessments, typically part of gateways, are useful in identifying EWS connected to the formalities of the project. As complexity increases, assessments have more limited use, and the project is increasingly dependent on detecting EWS by informal gut feeling. Thus, knowledge, experience, and communication skills are increasingly important in complex situations.(Williams et al., 2012) This work compares six different companies' stagegate approaches to the product development process. The six product development stage gate approaches were collated and compared and contrasted against a generic four-staged framework, derived from this research for use as a control. The similarities in approaches were examined and then supporting information on each of the organisations gathered. (Phillips, Neailey and Broughton, 1999) Front end planning (FEP) is recognized by both academia and industry for its potential for improving project success. Despite wide acceptance of its value, the FEP process varies in its implementation throughout the construction industry and from one project to another. This research quantifies several parameters for successful FEP implementation effort in terms of cost, schedule and project management (PM) team size. The paper also examines selected parameters in light of several project characteristics. Analyses show that FEP implementation efforts differ depending on project characteristics such as industry type and project nature, amongst others. (Yun, Suk; Dai and Mulva, 2012)
DATE
Terry Williams Identifying and Acting Ole Jonny Klakegg on Early Warning Signs Derek H. T. Walker Bjrn Andersen in Complex Projects Ole M. Magnussen
8 Case Studies
2012
6 different models
1999
419 Project
Questionnaires
2012
123
RESEARCH TITLE
AUTHOR(S)
SAMPLE SIZE
COMMENTS The importance of the front-end decision-making phase in projects is being increasingly recognized. This area is underrepresented in the literature, but there are a number of key themes that run throughout, identifying key issues or difficulties during this stage. This literature review looks at some of these themes and includes: the need for alignment between organizational strategy and the project concept; dealing with complexity, in particular the systemicity and interrelatedness within project decisions; consideration of the ambiguity implicit in all major projects; taking into account psychological and political biases within estimation of benefits and costs; consideration of the social geography and politics within decision-making groups; and preparation for the turbulence within the project environment, including the maintenance of strategic alignment. (Williams and Samset, 2010) Effective front-end planning (FEP) has repeatedly been shown in past research to positively affect project outcomes. Members of the Construction Industry Institute (CII) were surveyed to identify barriers to effective front-end project planning. This research describes survey results and gives recommendations to practitioners for improving FEP efficacy in order to improve capital project portfolio. (Gibson and Bosfield, 2012) This research was focused on front end planning of infrastructure projects. This investigation provides an understanding of the critical issues that must be addressed during FEP of infrastructure projects, particularly as applied to rail projects. A new risk management tool for FEP, called the Project Definition Rating Index (PDRI) for Infrastructure Projects, will be shown. (Palmer, Gibson and Bingham, 2008)
DATE
Literature Review
2010
59 Survey Organizations
2012
60 projects
Workshops
2008
124
RESEARCH TITLE
AUTHOR(S)
SAMPLE SIZE
COMMENTS
DATE
George Jergeas
3 mega projects of a total value Case Study of $10 billion Interviews (CAD)
Independent Research Assessment of Project Management Factors Affecting Department of Energy Project Success
16 projects
For the purpose of this research, the author considers the case study approach of the qualitative method as more suitable to explore and understand the phenomena of cost and schedule overruns on mega oil sands projects. In addition to studying project documents, the author sought and incorporated the opinion of 87 senior project management professionals both owner and EPC contractorwho have, or had, responsibility for recent or current major projects, to obtain their insights and to validate the findings of this research work. (Jergeas, 2008) The objective of the audit was to examine the effectiveness of the administration of the Gateway review process by Finance and FMA Act agencies. The audit also examined the extent to which those key Gateway reviews that have been conducted have contributed to improvements in the delivery of major projects undertaken by FMA Act agencies. (ANAO, 2012) The Civil Engineering Research Foundation (CERF) undertook a project management research study for the US Department of Energy (DOE) beginning in the fall of 2003. CERF was asked to identify key components affecting project performance, to evaluate performance factors, measures, and key metrics in relation to their correlation with project success, and to make recommendations with regard to improving performance on different types of projects. The DOE Office of Engineering and Construction Management (OECM) selected 16 projects that were included in the review. (CERF, 2004)
2008
2012
2004
125
126
127
128