Thayer Consultancy

ABN # 65 648 097 123

Background Brief: South China Sea: China Pushes Claims with New Passports Carlyle A. Thayer November 24, 2012

[client name deleted] 1. How do you assess the nine-dash map including the South China Sea on the new Chinese e-passport, is this in accordance with international law? ANSWER: This is another deliberate action by China to advanced its claims to sovereignty over the entire East Sea. The act of putting a map in the passport does not, in my opinion, violate international law. But China cannot claim that when its citizens enter another country on this passport that this is a legal recognition of China's claim. Vietnam could respond by creating a special stamp for these Chinese passports that say granting the bearer entry into Vietnam does not constitute recognition of Chinese territorial claims. 2. Is the new passport part of Beijings hidden agenda to expand its sovereign jurisdiction over the South China Sea? ANSWER: It is not a hidden agenda because the whole world already knows about it. It is an example of Chinese creeping assertiveness to devise various means to advance it claims. Vietnam wants to wear down its opponents, like water dripping on a rock. China hopes that by keeping up the pressure in this manner that Vietnam and the Philippines will acquiesce though fatigue. Vietnam must steel itself each time and respond firmly by rejecting China's ploy. Suggested citation: Carlyle A. Thayer, South China Sea: China Pushes Claims with New Passports, Thayer Consultancy Background Brief, November 24, 2012.

Thayer Consultancy
ABN # 65 648 097 123

Background Briefing: South China Sea: Chinas New Passport, Xi Jinping and Taiwan Carlyle A. Thayer November 29, 2012

[client name deleted] Could you offer your assessment of the following: 1. We know that the new design of the new Chinese passports will not change the reality on the ground. So what is the purpose for China of doing this? ANSWER: It is one more step to demonstrate that China is exercising jurisdiction over the South China Sea to reinforce its claims to sovereignty. It is also aimed at China's domestic nationalist audience. 2. Is Chinas move a part of a "long game" being played by a new generation of leaders? In other words, does this action indicate any future policy direction of China? ANSWER: I do not think this is an act approved by Xi Jinping and the new leadership. Undoubtedly this decision was made earlier in order to produce the passports. Bureaucratic momentum meant that the passports were issued when they were ready. It reflect China's long-term view of asserting sovereignty. It is not yet clear whether the new leadership will continue to be assertive or will adopt a more "softly, softly" diplomatic approach. 3. Xi Jingpin was just anointed as the new head of the Communist Party of China. Do you think Xi will display more aggressive gestures regarding diplomatic relations with Japan and India, and the South China Sea controversies with the Philippines and Vietnam? ANSWER: I think Xi Jinping will focus first on domestic problems and therefore wants a conducive external environment to address pressing internal issues. Xi will also want to meet with Obama at a high-level summit to set the tone of their relations. The Senkakus represent a special case because Japan is in a stronger position to push back. It was notable that China's new passport did not include the Diaoyu/Senkaku islands. As for Southeast Asia, the emphasis for the moment is on self-restraint, nonprovocation and diplomacy. This should suit China's leaders. 4. China's passport also claims ownership of the territory that also claimed by Taiwan. How do you think China's move impact the China-Taiwan relations?

2 ANSWER: This should not affect the currently good cross-straits relations. Mainland China is using the 1947 Republic of China map to advance its territorial claims in the South China Sea. China's passport is not aimed at Taiwan. All agree there is "One China".

Suggested citation: Carlyle A. Thayer, South China Sea: Chinas New Passport, Xi Jinping and Taiwan, Thayer Consultancy Background Brief, November 29, 2012.

Thayer Consultancy
ABN # 65 648 097 123

Background Brief: South China Sea: Chinas New Passports Push Claims Carlyle A. Thayer November 25, 2012

[client name deleted] China has issued 6 million new passports with the 9 dotted line u-shapted map printed on them. Vietnam and other regionalrelated countries of course do not agree with this action. What is your assessment of China's purpose? ANSWER: China is using every means to assert its claim to jurisdiction over the South China Sea. The issuing of passport with a map claiming the South China Sea is a clever move. If Vietnam or the Philippines admits Chinese with this passport China can claim those countries are endorsing Chinese jurisdiction. In fact the passport with this map has no basis in international law as far determining sovereignty. China's move is an obvious political ploy because the same map claims disputed territory with India but not the Senkaku islands with Japan. Vietnamese authorities should produce an immigration stamp allowing Chinese citizens to enter Vietnam on this new passport. The stamp should state that admission to Vietnam is without prejudice to Vietnam's sovereignty claims in the East Sea. I also suggest that Chinese who enter Vietnam on this new passport be required to go to a separate immigration official to gain entry. This would signify that China's new passport requires special handling.

Suggested citation: Carlyle A. Thayer, South China Sea: Chinas New Passports Push Claims, Thayer Consultancy Background Brief, November 25, 2012.