Issue 82

Copyright 2011-2012 www.Propwise.sg. All Rights Reserved.

CONTENTS
p2 p6 p14
How Does the 1H13 GLS Programme Impact Property Supply? Singapore Property News This Week Resale Property Transactions (November 28 December 4)

FROM THE

EDITOR

Welcome to the 82th edition of the Singapore Property Weekly. Hope you like it! Mr. Propwise

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SINGAPORE PROPERTY WEEKLY Issue 82

How Does the 1H13 GLS Programme Impact Property Supply?

By Mr. Propwise
On 14 December 2012 the Ministry of National Development (MND) announced the Government Land Sales (GLS) Programme for the first half of 2013. A total of 23 residential, two commercial, four hotel, and three mixed-use sites were announced. These sites could potentially yield a total of about 14,000 private residential units (6,900 on the confirmed and 7,100 on the reserve lists respectively), including 3,100 Executive Condominium (EC) units, and 3.4 million square feet of commercial space. The amount of supply announced is similar to that announced in 2H12, and the four GLS Programmes before that.
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SINGAPORE PROPERTY WEEKLY Issue 82 Large upcoming supply of residential units The majority of the sites are located in the Rest of Central Region and Outside Central Region, which should lead to the development of relatively more mass market sites. The URA has collated a total of 93,800 private housing units (including about 9,800 EC units) that will be constructed over the next few years, with about 43% or 40,000 of those (including 3,400 EC units) still yet to be sold. Based on the URA data collated by PropertyMarketInsights.com, residential completions will peak in 2015 at 23,667 units based on the private residential supply pipeline, or a 47% increase over the completion expected in 2013. Despite this, the government has kept the land supply relatively constant, perhaps in an effort to prevent the perception of a squeeze in the supply of land that could lead to higher prices. but demand is strong as well

While the large increase in supply sounds scary, it is worth pointing out that demand has been very strong so far this year as well.

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SINGAPORE PROPERTY WEEKLY Issue 82 market. A weak November could be bad news for 2013

Year-to-date till November 2012 there has been an estimated total transaction volume of 37,597 units, comprising 24,970 developer and 12,627 secondary sales (Figure 1.1.5b). This is 118% of the annual average of 31,826 units. If demand going forward continues to be as strong as it has in the past couple of years then the upcoming supply could well be absorbed without any weakness in the
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But if November sales are anything to go by, sales could weaken into 2013. In November 2012, the estimated total residential transaction volume was 2,278 units, comprising 1,266 developer and 1,012

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SINGAPORE PROPERTY WEEKLY Issue 82 secondary market sales. The total, developer and secondary market sales fell by 44%, 52% and 29% respectively on a month-on-month basis, in what is a seasonally strong period for fourth quarter property sales. The fall was partly due to a fall in new launches by developers, but the secondary market was also weak.

The supply outlook is much healthier for commercial property, with only 359 thousand square feet of space on the confirmed list, which is negligible versus the 13.2 million square feet of office and 6.7 million square feet of retail space in the pipeline.

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SINGAPORE PROPERTY WEEKLY Issue 82

Singapore Property This Week

Residential
Freehold Whitley Residences and Village held previews 19 freehold cluster homes at The Whitley Residences near the upcoming Mount Pleasant Station under the Thomson Line were sold to Singaporeans at about $5 million each or $850 psf on strata area after a 12% discount and absorption of the 3% buyer's stamp duty at its preview. These includes 18 semi-detached houses which were sold at $4.9 million (for a 6,125 sq ft unit) to $5.12 million (for a 6,071 sq ft unit) while the 6,620 sq ft corner terrace sold for $4.85 million. There are a total of 58 semi-Ds of 5,156 sq ft to 7,190 sq ft, and three terrace homes (the sold 6,620 sq ft corner terrace, another 6,448
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sq ft corner terrace priced at $4.8 million and a 4,801 sq ft intermediate terrace house priced at $4.3 million). All units has four levels (including a basement and attic) and offers five bedrooms, private enclosed space lift, void areas, a roof terrace and a car parking area. Shared facilities include a clubhouse, pool, gym, hot spa and playground. 40 over units of the 80 released units at the 148-unit five-storey condo project, Village at Pasir Panjang, have also been sold at its preview. Typical apartments with no private enclosed space or roof terrace are sold at an average price of $1,650 psf. The project consists of two to four-bedroom units, and penthouses.

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SINGAPORE PROPERTY WEEKLY Issue 82 Meanwhile, 230 units at the 700-unit The Topiary in Seletar have been sold at an average of $720 psf, with all 16 penthouses in the development ranging from 1,970 sq ft to 2,476 sq ft and priced from $1.3 million to $1.5 million sold within the first one-and-a-half hours. E-applications for Forestville EC at Woodlands Avenue 5 next to the La Casa EC will also be open from Dec 21 to 26 with an average price of over $700 psf. 30% of the 653 units are dual -key units, and 29 units will be penthouses in the range of 1,550 sq ft to 2,756 sq ft. To attract buyers, the developer is offering "a holiday bonanza" package, absorbing the first-year maintenance fees, and offering free fibre-optic broadband service, a basic cable TV package and a fixed-line service for the first three years in a tie-up with Starhub.
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(Source: Business Times) Private home sales may fall by 25% in 2013

Private home sales may fall by over 25% as a result of the increase in supply from completions and new launches, leading to a fall in units transacted from 20,000 units sold his year to 16,000-18,000 units in 2013 though prices are expected to continue increasing by 10-15% for the mass-market non-landed properties and 3-5% for the luxury properties as a result of increased land costs and increased demand. The average unit price of luxury condos increased by 2% from $2,350 psf in Q3 to $2,395 psf in Q4, a 5% increase from 2011s $2,286 psf. With the quantitative easing in the US and low interest rates, there could be an increased foreign demand though this will be moderated by the ABSD.
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SINGAPORE PROPERTY WEEKLY Issue 82 ECs will likely see much demand given the current trend, with nearly 3,500 EC units sold by October this year and possibly 4,000 by year end. Demand for shoebox units also fell to 7%, possibly due to the governmental regulation though the smaller supply could drive up the median prices of such units. Prices of shoebox units hit $1,474 psf in Q4 this year, a 6% increase from Q3 and 10% increase from 2011. (Source: Business Times) 99-year Alexandra View residential site attracts $332.7m top bid price of $1,700 psf. The site is located near the Redhill MRT station and the town area. (Source: Business Times)

Investment sales of property to hit $28.7b in 2012

Investment sales of property (transactions of $10 million and above) in Q4 (up to Dec 11) hit $6.9 billion, compared to $9.3 billion in Q3, likely due to the fall in private sector deals to $3.7 billion in Q4 so far from $7.2 billion in Q3. On the other hand, deals in the public sector rose to $3.2 billion in Q4 so far from $2.2 billion in Q3. This is attributed to the aggressive bidding by developers at GLS tenders. The total investment sales of property in Q4 are expected to hit $7.6 billion, bringing the total for the year to $29.5 billion. Investment sales are likely to fall to $25-$27 billion next year, a result of the economic conditions and the present wide bid-ask gap,
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The site at Alexandra View attracted a total of six bids with the top bid of $332.7 million, or $970.18 psf ppr from Singland Homes. The developer plans to develop a 43-storey residential tower with mainly 800-1,000 sq ft two-bedrooms or two-plus-one units with a breakeven cost of $1,500 psf and a selling
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SINGAPORE PROPERTY WEEKLY Issue 82 though the government is likely to continue releasing a large number of GLS sites. Meanwhile, the en bloc sale market has seen only 24 transactions at a total of around $2 billion, compared to 51 transactions at $3.2 billion last year. This is attributed to a lack of supply. However, the relatively poor performance is likely to improve next year, with more developers turning their attention from GLS sites to en bloc sites, and the recent changes in rules regarding en bloc sites. The residential sector accounts for $13.1 billion or 45% of the $28.7 billion transacted year-to-date, and could potentially hit $13.5 billion by year end while the commercial sector (office $4.9 billion and retail $2.3 billion) accounts for $7.5 billion compared to $8.2 billion in 2011. The investment sales of hospitality assets including both private and
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public sectors increased from $1.6 billion in 2011 to $3.8 billion and industrial property transactions fell from $4 billion in 2011 to $3.4 billion so far. (Source: Business Times) Slow property auction market in 2012 Only 24 of the 377 properties put up for auction were sold in 2012, with a total sales value of $62.4 million, a 35% fall from 2011s $95.6 million. However, the market situation is expected to improve a little next year, with a total sales value of $70 million predicted, driven by liquidity and low interest rates in H1 2013. There is still demand for property in the auction market since properties are considered good hedges against inflation, especially demand for landed properties and those located in prime districts. There may also be more mortgagee sales in H2 2013 if
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SINGAPORE PROPERTY WEEKLY Issue 82 the economy worsens or unemployment rate increases, with some being industrial properties. The slower auction market is attributed to the cooling measures in the residential sector, which affected the secondary market (with owners reluctant to sell and buyers unwilling to purchase at high prices) and demand for luxury properties. Residential properties account for $29.7 million or 48% of the auction sales, retail properties account for $8.1 million while industrial properties account for $10.1 million. (Source: Business Times) Rents of luxury homes to fall Rents of luxury homes are likely to continue falling, with a fall of 5-10% to below $5 psf per month predicted for 2013, given smaller budgets and increased supply. In Q4, rents of high-end condos fell from Q3 by 7.4% to $4.88 psf per month, compared to the $5.27
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psf per month in the same period in 2011. According to the URA, over half of the 91,869 new homes to be released to the market in the next five years have been sold. This, coupled with the current rise in vacancy rate to 7.9% in Q3 2012 (compared to the fiveyear average of 7.5%), will result in a fall in rental rates, particularly when owners move to their homes, leading to the increase in shadow spaces. However, the mass market rental market is expected to remain resilient in 2013, with the increase in demand and smaller rental budgets leading to higher per-sq-ft rents. The island-wide median rents for condos and apartment units excluding ECs reached $3.75 psf per month in October, a 7% increase from a year ago. The median rates for houses however, fell by 0.4% in October to $2.65 psf per month.
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SINGAPORE PROPERTY WEEKLY Issue 82 The total value of all leasing transactions from January to October 2011 was $208 million and is likely to exceed the 2011 record of $218 million. (Source: Business Times) MND announces GLS private housing sites for H1 2013 The confirmed-list sites can generate up to 6,935 private homes (45% of which or 3,110 are ECs) while the reserve-list sites can potentially generate 7,100 private homes. Most of the sites in the confirmed list are in the Outside Central Region or Rest of Central Region where private housing is more affordable. The confirmed lists has some choice sites such as the ones on Coronation Road, Kim Tian Road and Mount Sophia which accounts for 16% of the supply in the confirmed-list, while choice sites on the reserve list includes the ones in Siglap Road,
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Stirling Road, Alexandra View (Parcel A) and Prince Charles Crescent (Parcel B) which accounts for 3,055 private homes or 43 per cent of the reserve list's supply. The landed housing site in Coronation Road/Victoria Park Road next to the Victoria Park and Rebecca Park GCB Area which can generate about 140 landed homes will be launched in March while the 2.4-ha site on Mount Sophia which can be developed into a 505-unit low-rise condo will be launched in June. There will also be another low-rise condo site at Faber Walk in the Ulu Pandan area with a potential of 210 units that will be launched in April. These are all on the confirmed list. In addition, there are also two mixed commercial-residential plots available which are expected to be popular the Yishun Central site next to the MRT station, bus interchange and Northpoint Shopping Centre on the confirmed list and the plot next
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SINGAPORE PROPERTY WEEKLY Issue 82 to Potong Pasir MRT Station on the reserve list. Meanwhile on the commercial end, there will be 33,360 sq m GFA made available under the confirmed list and another 281,320 sq m GFA under the reserve list, compared to 80,280 sq m and 308,200 sq m respectively currently. Three sites for office developments under the reserve list - at Marina View/Union Street in the new Downtown, Cecil Street and Sims Avenue - are from the H2 2012 reserve list. There is currently about 1.17 million sq m (12.6 million sq ft) GFA of upcoming office supply. Hotel room supply (only on the reserve list) has fallen from 3,655 rooms to 1,740 rooms though the Havelock Road hotel site that can generate potentially 35 hotel rooms is expected to be highly popular. (Source: Business Times) Commercial Freehold 79 Anson Rd expected to be sold at over $400m

Both German fund manager SEB and Central Provident Fund Board (CPFB) are said to be selling their space at the 23-storey 79 Anson Road near Tanjong Pagar MRT Station at an expected price of $1,400 psf based on the its GFA of 289,185 sq ft or over $405 million. This translates to $2,000-2,050 psf based on its current NLA of around 200,000 sq ft. The buyer could possibly redevelop the site when the existing leases run out in 2016. The current GFA however, is higher than the 236,566 sq ft GFA based on the 8.4 plot ratio designated for the 28,163 sq ft site zoned commercial with a 35-storey height restriction under the Master Plan 2008 though it might potentially be redeveloped up to its existing

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SINGAPORE PROPERTY WEEKLY Issue 82 GFA without having to pay any development charge. The buyer could also retain it for rental income. The building offers a 145-lot carpark on the second to the fourth levels. (Source: Business Times) Allianz Group leases 90,000 sq ft at Asia Square Allianz Group is said to be leasing 90,000 sq ft of space on levels 13, 14 and 15 of the 46storey Asia Square Tower 2, and may also lease level 12, bringing the total to 120,000 sq ft. When completed, there will be 790,000 sq ft NLA of Grade A offices on levels 6-31, a 305-room Westin hotel on levels 32-46, and 40,000 sq ft of retail space on the first two levels, of which a third has been precommitted. While rents in Tower 2 are determined on a case-by-case basis, the monthly rents for the 43-storey Tower 1 is
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around $12-15 psf. 82% of Tower 1's 1.25 million sq ft NLA has been leased, with levels 36 to 39 and some other space scattered throughout still available. There is also a Food Garden in Tower 1. (Source: Business Times)

SINGAPORE PROPERTY WEEKLY Issue 82

Non-Landed Residential Resale Property Transactions for the Week of Nov 28 Dec 4
Postal District 1 5 8 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 Area (sqft) 538 1,066 1,076 1,636 1,550 1,367 3,434 549 1,098 893 936 1,873 2,637 1,604 1,324 1,475 1,701 3,714 1,733 1,981 1,216 1,948 818 1,668 Transacted Price ($) 1,180,000 1,338,000 1,076,000 3,600,000 3,400,000 2,700,000 6,250,000 990,000 1,968,000 1,580,000 1,650,000 3,255,000 4,450,000 2,560,000 2,060,000 2,250,000 2,460,000 7,353,720 2,859,450 3,200,000 1,950,000 2,950,000 1,230,000 2,500,000 Price Tenure ($ psf) 2,192 99 1,256 FH 1,000 99 2,200 FH 2,194 FH 1,975 FH 1,820 FH 1,803 FH 1,792 FH 1,769 FH 1,762 FH 1,738 99 1,687 FH 1,596 999 1,556 999 1,526 999 1,446 FH 1,980 FH 1,650 FH 1,616 FH 1,603 999 1,514 FH 1,504 999 1,498 FH Postal District 10 10 10 10 10 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 12 12 14 14 14 15 15 15 15 Area (sqft) 797 1,485 1,808 1,281 2,067 581 1,938 2,713 398 1,216 764 1,356 1,399 1,765 3,735 1,528 1,378 915 1,195 980 1,518 3,035 1,259 506 Transacted Price ($) 1,180,000 2,180,000 2,600,000 1,620,000 2,450,000 1,280,000 3,800,000 5,019,050 715,000 2,120,000 1,280,000 2,192,000 1,860,000 1,970,000 3,850,000 2,060,000 1,600,000 1,038,800 1,230,000 933,000 2,580,600 4,552,500 1,700,000 682,000 Price Tenure ($ psf) 1,481 FH 1,468 FH 1,438 999 1,265 FH 1,185 FH 2,202 99 1,961 FH 1,850 FH 1,795 FH 1,743 FH 1,675 FH 1,616 99 1,329 FH 1,116 FH 1,031 99 1,348 FH 1,161 FH 1,135 FH 1,029 FH 953 99 1,700 FH 1,500 99 1,350 FH 1,348 FH

Project Name ONE SHENTON THE GRANDHILL KENTISH GREEN SCOTTS 28 RIVERGATE TRIBECA YONG AN PARK EMILY RESIDENCE ONE OXLEY RISE 2 RVG THE INSPIRA ORCHARD SCOTTS CAIRNHILL CREST ASPEN HEIGHTS ASPEN HEIGHTS WATERFORD RESIDENCE CAVENAGH HOUSE GALLOP GREEN ONE JERVOIS ONE JERVOIS VALLEY PARK SOMMERVILLE PARK VALLEY PARK DORMER PARK

Project Name SYLVAN LODGE THE LEGEND CHARMING GARDEN CORONATION ARCADE THE HERMITAGE SOLEIL @ SINARAN NEWTON IMPERIAL SKY@ELEVEN THE AXIS NEWTON ONE IRIDIUM ROCHELLE AT NEWTON THOMSON 800 GREENDALE COURT THE ARCADIA THE ARTE PARC HAVEN LE CRESCENDO THE SUNNY SPRING SIMSVILLE THE SEA VIEW CAMELOT BY-THE-WATER TIERRA VUE BLU CORAL

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SINGAPORE PROPERTY WEEKLY Issue 82

Postal District 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 16 16 17 17 17 17 18 18 19 19 19 19 20 20 21 21 21 21 22 Project Name SANCTUARY GREEN MALVERN SPRINGS CENTRINA STILLZ RESIDENCE COSTA RHU COSTA RHU CHELSEA LODGE SPRING GARDENS BREEZE BY THE EAST SUNBIRD VIEW EDELWEISS PARK CONDOMINIUM BALLOTA PARK CONDOMINIUM LOYANG VALLEY BALLOTA PARK CONDOMINIUM MELVILLE PARK ELIAS GREEN KOVAN MELODY RIVERVALE CREST RIVERVALE CREST REGENTVILLE BRADDELL VIEW BISHAN PARK CONDOMINIUM BUKIT REGENCY GOODLUCK GARDEN SOUTHAVEN II SIGNATURE PARK THE CENTRIS Area (sqft) 775 980 775 1,012 1,399 1,399 1,195 1,959 2,077 1,302 947 1,711 1,012 1,442 958 1,518 1,216 1,141 1,195 1,152 1,615 1,270 1,399 1,701 1,044 1,076 1,066 Transacted Price ($) 1,012,500 1,230,000 892,000 1,155,000 1,520,000 1,500,000 1,260,000 1,780,000 2,450,000 1,090,000 910,000 1,380,000 808,000 1,100,000 805,000 1,090,000 1,398,000 970,000 972,000 900,000 1,560,000 1,210,000 1,530,000 1,840,000 1,088,000 1,040,000 1,275,000 Price Tenure ($ psf) 1,306 99 1,256 FH 1,151 FH 1,142 FH 1,086 99 1,072 99 1,055 FH 909 FH 1,179 FH 837 FH 961 FH 806 FH 799 99 763 FH 840 99 718 99 1,149 99 850 99 814 99 781 99 966 99 953 99 1,093 FH 1,082 FH 1,042 999 966 FH 1,196 99
Postal District 22 22 22 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 25 26 28 Project Name THE LAKESHORE THE CENTRIS THE MAYFAIR THE DAIRY FARM HAZEL PARK CONDOMINIUM HAZEL PARK CONDOMINIUM DAIRY FARM ESTATE HAZEL PARK CONDOMINIUM CHANTILLY RISE HILLVIEW REGENCY GUILIN VIEW REGENT GROVE THE PETALS REGENT GROVE CASABLANCA CASTLE GREEN SERENITY PARK Area (sqft) 947 1,302 1,184 1,593 980 980 1,281 1,012 1,518 1,195 1,259 1,173 3,251 1,195 1,130 947 1,324 Transacted Price ($) 1,090,000 1,370,000 1,020,000 1,900,000 1,124,000 985,000 1,281,000 999,999 1,470,000 1,100,000 1,155,000 900,000 2,400,000 880,000 888,000 850,000 1,380,000 Price Tenure ($ psf) 1,151 99 1,052 99 861 99 1,193 FH 1,147 999 1,006 999 1,000 FH 988 999 969 FH 921 99 917 99 767 99 738 FH 737 99 786 99 897 99 1,042 FH

NOTE: This data only covers non-landed residential resale property transactions with caveats lodged with the Singapore Land Authority. Typically, caveats are lodged at least 2-3 weeks after a purchaser signs an OTP, hence the lagged nature of the data.

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