HumanPopulationGrowth p AnalyzingLifeHistory Todaysquestions: I. Whatwillthehumanpopulationbeoverthe courseofyourlifetime? II. Howdofitnesstradeoffsaffecttheevolutionof lifehistories?

I. Whatwillthehumanpopulationbewhenyourein h ll h h l b h yourearly60s,andbeyond? Currentpopulation~7.05billion 2010update:fertility2100popn (avg.#kids/female)(billions) Current,continued~2.6,nochange Highprojectionto~2 35 by 2050 High projection to 2.35by2050 Mediumprojectionto~1.85by2050 Lowprojectionto~1.35by2050

Whatisthedefinitionofreplacementrate? h h d f f l ?
The average # of offspring for female for r=0. In developing countries, it would be 2.1.

1. Whyisntthereplacementrate2.0? y p
Some kids die, so we need to account for that.

2. Whyisthereplacementratehigherindevelopingversus industrializednations? industrialized nations?

There's less access to healthcare in developing nations, so more kids die.

Trendsingrowthrateandfertility: g y Growthrate/yearAvg.fertility 196570:2.04% 1965 70 2 04% 199095:1.46% 1990 95 1 46% 200005:1.2% 2000 05 1 2% We recurrentlyadding Were currently adding developingcountries millionpeople/year million people/year in in

Whatconditionscontributetodecliningfertilityrates, andwhy?Consider: and why? Consider: IncomeHigher income means resources required per child is greater.
More access to birth control. High income might mean more women are working and less time reproducing. Low income will mean you need more kids to work. High income means you have access to healthcare, so you aren't worry about your kids dying as much. Higher mortality increases child fertility.

Lifespan/childmortality if / hild li

Womensrights(education;accesstobirthcontrol)
Education means you might delay reproduction till later, so you'll have less opportunities to have a child. Women given more autonomy, they typically want to have fewer kids, and then invest more in each of them.

Religiousbeliefs

Some religious group belief system encourages large families.

Theroleofemigration/immigration Willallofthepeoplebornindevelopingcountriesstayin developingcountries? developing countries? 2004PewHispanicCentersurveyinMexico:Ifyoucould, wouldyouemigratetotheUnitedStates? %yesx million=million

Intermsofbiologicalimpactofhumans,thetwokey factorsare: 1. Numberofpeople(populationsize) 2.Resourcesusedperperson 2 R d Currently,whatistherelationshipbetweenthesetwo Currently what is the relationship between these two factors?
As population size increase, resource use per person decrease.

II.Howdofitnesstradeoffsaffecttheevolutionoflife histories? Experiment(intext)onsideblotchedlizards: Experiment (in text) on sideblotched lizards: 1.Removeyolkfromeggs

Many small eggs.

2.Removeallbut23eggs
Few big eggs.

3.Shamoperation
Control for operation.

Intermsofmaternalinvestmentinoffspring,whatdoes eachtreatmentgrouprepresent? ht t t t?

1.Whatwastherelationshipbetweenclutchsizeandegg size?
Clutch size going up=egg size goes down.

2.Whatwastherelationshipbetweeneggsizeand 2. What was the relationship between egg size and offspringsurvival?
Egg size goes up and survivorship increase.

3.Didmothersthatlaidlargeeggsorsmalleggshave optimalfitness?
A mix of the two.