IsaMassExtinctionCurrentlyUnderway? Todaysquestions: I. Howrapidlyarespeciesgoingextinct? II. Whyarespeciesgoingextinct? III. Whatarethekeyecologicalandevolutionary issuesinconservationbiology?

I.

Howrapidlyarespeciesgoingextinct?

A.Dataonrecentextinctions 1.Sinceyear1000, 1 Si 1000 birdspecieshavegone bi d i h extinct.Thisis thenormal(background)rate.

*Thisisan extremelyconservativeestimatemayhavebeen2,000species extinguishedinPolynesiaalone,asaresultofhumancolonization.

2. amphibianspecieshavegoneextinctinthe past25years;thisis past 25 years; this is thebackgroundrate the background rate

B.Dataonprojectedextinctions:IUCNRedlist
3levelsofthreatenedstatus Critical 50%probabilityofextinctionin5yearsor2generations; totalpopulation<250;OR >20%declinein2yearsor>50%inlastgeneration % d li i %i l i g Endangered 20%probabilityofextinctionin20yearsor10generations; totalpopulations<2,500;OR >5%declineoverthepast5yearsor>10%over2generations >5% decline over the past 5 years or >10% over 2 generations Vulnerable 10%probabilityofextinctionin100years; 10% b bili f i i i 100 totalpopulation<10,000;OR >1%declineoverthepast10years

%ofknownspeciesthreatenedwithextinction (criticallyendangered,endangered,orvulnerable) thesearetheonlygroupsthatarewellstudiedenough thatatleast90%ofallknownspecieshavebeen h l f ll k i h b evaluated Mammals Amphibians A hibi Birds Gymnosperms

IUCNreportsonthetotalnumberofeukaryote speciesthreatenedwithextinction i th t d ith ti ti t

1998: 10,553 2000: 11 046 11,046 2002: 11,167 2003: 12,259 2004: 15,042 2006: 16,117 2007: 16,308 , 2008: 16,928 2009: 17,291 2010: 18 351 18,351 2011: 19,570 2012: 20,219 98-12:

N t = N0 = er Nt = N0 ert

II.Whyarespeciesgoingextinct? From16001950,mostextinctionsoccurredonislands,due tointroducedpredatorsanddirectexploitationbyhumans to introduced predators and direct exploitation by humans

Recentdataon endangeredspecies d d i fromCanada

Currently: Currently: Whatisthemajorproblemforterrestrialspecies?

They suffer hugely from habitat loss in proportion to other organisms. Habitat loss is also an issue that is likely to become worse.

Whatisthemajorproblemformarinespecies? What is the major problem for marine species?

They suffer hugely from overexploitation.

Dataonforestloss(UNFAO;11/30/11) Deforestationlossesaverage14.5Mha/yr:19902005 D f t ti l 14 5M h / 1990 2005 ____GlobalnetlossNotes_ 1990s Mha/yr Mha/yrintropics h / h / i i 200005 Mha/yr=~1/3WAstate Totalnetlossesoverthisinterval= 1.Whatismeantby netloss? 1. What is meant by net loss? 2.FAOdefines Forest as 10% tree cover Why might this 2 FAO defines Forestas10%treecover.Whymightthis beproblematic? Majority of biomass is in the tropical
forest, which has much more than 10% tree cover. The % for real forest is much higher, so theses #s can be misleading. Because some trees might be recovered (forest planting). So then the net loss would be higher than the the other loss.

Mha(3.9WAs)

3.Whybeconcernedabouttherateinthetropics? Because tropics are biological hotspots where species diversity

are pretty high.

Makingdeforestation visual 1984

2005

Habitatfragmentation 1.Whydoeshabitatqualitydecline?
- The edges around habitats are less habitable. - Higher exposures to storms (especially after clear-cuts). - More invasive species. - Edges dry, humidity goes down. This allows for other species to invade in setting up succession. - D

2.Genetically,whathappenstopopulationsthatbecome 2 Genetically what happens to populations that become geographicallyisolatedinsmallfragments?

- Inbreeding (depression) and drift (alleles being "loss") can cause the fitness of the population to be lowered.

Duetogeneticanddemographicproblems,populations thataresmallandgeographicallyisolatedmaybeinan extinctionvortex. Whatdrivesthevortex?