INEQUALITIES IN KENYA:

IMPLICATIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT

AND REVENUE SHARING

by

John Thinguri Mukui

[email: jtmukui2000@yahoo.com]

Paper prepared for a workshop on Financing for a

Fairer and Prosperous Kenya, Naivasha, 27-28
June 2012

The United Nations Millennium Campaign Africa Office, Nairobi,

facilitated the workshop

INEQUALITIES IN KENYA: IMPLICATIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT AND

REVENUE SHARING
1

In God we trust, all others bring data William Edwards Deming (1900-1993), cited in Hastie,
Tibshirani and Friedman (2009) 2

1.

INTRODUCTION

The Constitution provides a unique opportunity and new impetus for the Government to refocus
and reengineer its efforts on equity and poverty reduction. The challenge is to develop the
necessary policy and legislative instruments that will put that into practice. A prerequisite for doing
so is to build consensus on the meaning of equity in resource allocation and to establish rigorous
monitoring processes to demonstrate the extent to which this is achieved.
The Constitution established the Equitable Share of national revenue allocated to county
governments, which was to be not less than 15% of all revenue collected by the national
government, calculated on the basis of the most recent audited accounts of revenue received, as
approved by the National Assembly. The Constitution also established an Equalization Fund
equivalent to 0.5% of the national revenue to provide basic services including water, roads, health

I am grateful to Joanne Bosworth, Godfrey Ndenge, Michael Chege, Germano Mwabu, Albert Mwenda,
Phyllis N. Makau and Leonard Obidha for comments on an earlier draft of the paper.
2
It is unlikely that William Edwards Deming originated with the quote. Mukherjee (2010) observes that,
Susan Okie (1979), a Washington Post staff writer (Washington Post, October 29, 1979) attributed the quote
to cancer researcher Bernard Fisher: In God we trust, Bernard Fisher said. All others have data. Bernard
Fisher (1980) also emphasized the importance of data from clinical investigations, urging his professional
colleagues to disabuse themselves of the notion of divine transmission of knowledge. Bernard Fisher (1980)
added that, I believe there is no such thing as premature data, only immature evaluation and premature
application. In most of his work and writings, Ronald Aylmer Fisher stressed the importance of data in
scientific enquiry (see, for example, Ronald Fisher, 1966, and a review of his works in George E. P. Box,
1976), and in Ronald Fisher (1950) stated that, Let our loyalty to the facts be absolute. George E. P. Box was
the son-in-law of Ronald Fisher. William Edwards Deming studied under Ronald Fisher at University
College, London, England; referred to his works (see Deming, 1950; Deming, 1978; and Lynch and Stuckler,
2012); was a sampling statistician before he became a quality control guru; and William Gordon Hunter, a
colleague of George Box, contributed to Demings Out of the Crisis (Box, 2013). George E. P. Box and William
G. Hunter also promoted the role of statistics in quality and productivity, together with Deming (see Box,
Hunter and Hunter, 1978). Demings entrance into the world of quality improvement was inspired by the
father of statistical process control, Walter Shewhart (1926a; 1926b; 1930; 1931; 1939), who in turn
acknowledged everlasting debt to Lewis (1929) see also Rey (1983) reference to Shewhart. Bernard Fisher
was conversant with the use of statistical methods in clinical trials, and worked with a team of eminent
statisticians at the National Surgical Adjuvant Breast and Bowel Project e.g. Irwin D. J. Bross (see, for
example, Blumenson and Bross, 1969; Bross and Blumenson, 1971; and Bross, 1974) see also Bross (1971)
comments on Ronald A. Fisher (1926; 1956) tests of significance. The paternity of the quote might therefore
be difficult to establish, but the suspects (Bernard Fisher, George E. P. Box and William Edwards Deming)
were all familiar with the works of Ronald Aylmer Fisher. There are also similar sayings in Gaither and
Cavazos-Gaither (1996) collection of quotations pertaining to probability and statistics, but without In God
we trust. As observed by Hirschman (1964) while staking his claim in the Herfindahl-Hirschman Index,
Well, its a cruel world.

facilities and electricity to marginalized areas to the extent necessary to bring the quality of those
services in those areas to the level generally enjoyed by the rest of the nation, so far as possible.
Article 202(2) of the Constitution adds that county governments may be given additional
allocations either conditionally or unconditionally. There is also emphasis on use of own-revenue
sources in order to create hard budgetary constraints that will result into fiscal responsibility and
proper planning (Aden, 2011) see also Tanzi (1996) and Wildasin (2004). Failure to emphasize
own-revenue generation may increase the overall size of Government, which is consistent with
theoretical arguments drawn from welfare economics and positive political economy (Rodden,
2003). However, the Constitution is vague as to the nature of sub-county decentralization and the
role of existing local authorities (Boex and Kelly, 2011).
The Commission on Revenue Allocation (CRA) proposed a simple formula for allocation of the
Equitable Share among the 47 Counties based on the following percentage weighting: population
(60), basic equal share (20), level of poverty (12), land area (6) and fiscal performance (2) 3. The
Constitution (Article 216) requires CRA to make recommendations concerning the basis for the
equitable sharing of revenue raised by the national government, although the level of detail
expected in the CRA recommendations is open to varied interpretation.
The constitution appears to define equity on the basis of equal opportunity (a persons life
achievements should be determined primarily by his or her talents and efforts, rather than by
predetermined circumstances such as race, gender, or social and family background), and avoidance
of deprivation in outcomes, particularly in health, education, and consumption levels (see
especially World Bank, 2005, for intellectual clarity of these concepts).
The debate on alternative theories of distributive justice as real freedom for all came to the fore
largely due to the work of John Rawls (1971; 1985) who argued for maximal expectations for the
least fortunate. In particular, in Rawlsian theory, individuals are not considered responsible of the
position they have in society, and thus no premium is granted since it is an outcome of natural
abilities that are randomly allocated to human beings (Rawls, 1971). Although this paper cannot
engage on theories of distributive justice in any meaningful detail, it is important to appreciate the
works of other philosophers and economists in the debate, especially (a) Dworkin (1981a; 1981b)
and Sen (1985; 1992b) who argue for equalization of endowments; and (b) Roemer (1998a; 1998b)
on equalization of achievement across types, where types relate to variables that are out of peoples
control (e.g. talent and parents education) that should not have impact on ones expected
achievement (e.g. in educational and health). The Equality of Opportunity principle by Roemer is
an extension (or criticism) of Sens capability approach, as it considers individual responsibility.
Sens capability approach was essentially to alleviate the drawback of Rawlss theory by considering
human diversity. In the methods of compensation, Rawls and Dworkin imply resource equality,
while Sen and Roemer would advocate equality of opportunity. In terms of social prescriptions,
equalization of opportunity a la Roemer is more focused on the correction of inequalities, while
Sens capability approach aims at preventing them at the beginning (see Arneson, 1989; Hausman
and McPherson, 1993; World Bank, 2005; Blake and Risse, 2008; and Tungodden, 2008, for a
summary of the debate).
3

The final CRA recommendations to Parliament dated 8 August 2012 changed the percentage weighting to
population (45), basic equal share (25), poverty gap (20), land area (8) and fiscal responsibility (2), and
amended the poverty parameter from poverty headcount index to poverty gap index. CRA also capped
minimum and maximum contribution of a county to total land area at 1% and 10%, respectively.

The purpose of this brief is to highlight the nature of inequalities in Kenya and their implications
for growth strategies, poverty eradication and revenue sharing. The purpose is to stimulate debate
but not to offer any specific recommendations on the CRA formula. The paper was expected to also
summarize existing knowledge/experience on resource allocation, and how this relates to inequality
in development outcomes with reference to devolution. However, the latter was dropped since
most of the existing literature on revenue sharing in other countries rarely relates the revenue
sharing formula with the allocation of functions between national and devolved governments,
which makes it difficult to judge their immediate relevance to Kenya. In addition, Kenya is not
moving towards a federal system but the state is only ceding some powers and functions to the
counties while retaining primary responsibility for provision of some basic services e.g. education
and security. However, there may be need to redefine the land area criterion so that it is based on
the square root of a countys land area as this is a more realistic indicator of the relative costs of
providing services within geographical domains.
2.

ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL RIGHTS UNDER THE CONSTITUTION

The Constitution states that every person has the right to (a) the highest attainable standard of
health, which includes the right to healthcare services, including reproductive healthcare; (b)
accessible and adequate housing and to reasonable standard of sanitation; (c) to be free from hunger
and to have adequate food of acceptable quality; (d) clean and safe water in adequate quantities; (e)
social security; and (f) education. Articles 52 to 57 of the Constitution recognize specific application
of rights with respect to children, persons with disabilities, minorities and marginalized groups, and
older members of society.
It is important to note that high inequality will hinder progress towards meeting constitutional
rights and undermine progress on achievement of the Millennium Development Goals and
economic growth (Galor and Zeira, 1993; Alesina and Rodrik, 1994; Persson and Tabellini, 1994;
Bnabou, 1996; Perotti, 1996; Barro, 2000; Gituto, 2007; and Galor, 2011), while poverty provides a
mechanism for intergenerational inequality through low human capital among the poor. Poverty is
also associated with high fertility such that the poor are more represented in the next generation.
As observed by Gertler (2004), one of the greatest tragedies of extreme poverty is its
intergenerational transmission: children who grow up in poor families tend to be in poorer health
and have lower levels of education. They thus enter adulthood without the basic capabilities
necessary to take advantage of labor market opportunities to pull themselves out of poverty and to
enjoy an acceptable quality of life. In particular, child poverty has a permanent impact on children,
especially on their mental, physical, emotional and spiritual development (Minujin, Delamonica,
Davidziuk and Gonzalez, 2006; UNICEF, 2011). In turn, growth theory posits that human capital
accumulation can replace physical capital accumulation as a prime engine of growth along the
process of development (Galor and Moav, 2004). There is therefore need for Kenya to generate a
programmatic definition of child poverty, and set guiding principles for public policy and targets
for the elimination of child poverty (see, for example, Corak, 2005).
Article 20 of the Constitution states that every person shall enjoy the rights and fundamental
freedoms in the Bill of Rights to the greatest extent consistent with the nature of the right or
fundamental freedom. A pervasive issue in measuring achievements in economic rights is the
denominator problem, or the extent to which the service rendered covers the potential need for the
service in a community. The most pervasive denominator problems are caused by errors in
3

population estimates (census) and the differing needs based on, say, epidemiology of a particular
disease e.g. malaria ecology. In epidemiological research, the denominator problem also manifests
itself through incomplete information or lack of reliable methods of estimating non-attenders 4.
The denominator problem may have an effect on the perceived achievement of national
development goals that are population-based, since the numerator is derived from administrative
records (e.g. voter registration and gross enrolment by school cycle). An overestimation of the
population is expected to lead to understatement of achievement, and vice versa.
3.

SHARING OF ROLES BETWEEN NATIONAL AND COUNTY GOVERNMENTS

The main functions of County governments with large budgetary implications are:

Agriculture, including crop and animal husbandry, livestock sale yards, county abattoirs, plant
and animal disease control, and fisheries;
County health services, including county health facilities and pharmacies, promotion of
primary healthcare, veterinary services (excluding regulation of the profession), and solid waste
disposal;
Control of air pollution, noise pollution, other public nuisances and outdoor advertising;
County transport, including county roads, street lighting, traffic and parking;
Trade development and regulation, including markets, local tourism and cooperative societies;
County planning and development, including land survey and mapping, housing, and
electricity and gas reticulation and energy regulation;
Preprimary education, village polytechnics, home craft centers and childcare facilities;
Implementation of specific national government policies on natural resources and
environmental conservation, including soil and water conservation, and forestry;
County public works and services, including storm water management systems in built-up
areas, and water and sanitation services; and
Fire fighting services and disaster management

The county roles are therefore mainly in human and animal health, agriculture, county transport,
and public works. The CRA formula needs to be evaluated within the functions enumerated above,
and noting that it does not include all funding windows (e.g. national budget, Equalization Fund
and vertical funds by development partners). In particular, it is important to review per capita
allocations from the Equitable Share and Equalization Fund jointly rather than piecemeal, since
both funding windows have overlapping functions with respect to narrowing economic disparities
within and among counties and affirmative action towards disadvantaged areas and groups.
Article 187 of the Constitution (operationalized through Article 25(d) of the Intergovernmental
Relations Act 2012) states that a function or power of government at one level may be transferred
to a government at the other level by agreement between the governments if the function or
power would be more effectively performed or exercised by the receiving government, but with a
rider that constitutional responsibility for the performance of the function or exercise of the
4

The denominator problem also affects other professions. In law, two issues in the denominator problem are:
(a) in obscenity cases, which require that the offensiveness of a particular work be measured against some
community standard, and the sorts of persons and the proper geographic scope of the relevant community
(Young, 2005); and (b) compensation by Government for partial use of private property, where the
numerator is the value or rights taken by government action and the denominator is the entirety of the
owners property (Alperin, 2001).

power shall remain with the government to which it is assigned by the Fourth Schedule of the
Constitution 5.
Article 187 of the Constitution therefore introduces the principle of subsidiarity so that activities
are locally relevant and globally coherent (see Fllesdal, 1998; and Gelauff, Grilo and Lejour, 2008).
The subsidiarity principle, borrowed from the Catholic social teaching as developed in Rerum
Novarum Encyclical of Pope Leo XIII on Capital and Labor (1891) and Quadragesimo Anno
Encyclical of Pope Pius XI on Reconstruction of the Social Order (1931), is a principle of
organization in social, economic, environmental and political fields that espouses the need to
address issues at the most appropriate level (Barrett, Mude and Omiti, 2007). This tenet holds that
nothing should be done by a larger and more complex organization if it can be done as well by a
smaller and simpler organization, and that the government should not complete tasks that can be
best accomplished by individuals. When the need in question cannot be adequately met at the
lower level, then it is not only necessary, but also imperative that higher levels of government
intervene.
The concept of subsidiarity is especially relevant in environmental management because of the
linkages between individuals and the global consequences of their actions, and the fact that rules
developed at one level (e.g. in international regimes) must be adapted to conditions in a wide
variety of regional or local environments (see, for example, Ribot, 2003, on multiple accountability
measures; and Marshall, 2008, on community-based approaches to environmental management
under nested governance systems).
In 1969, Parliament enacted the Local Government (Transfer of Functions) Act 1969 whereby the
Government transferred to itself local authority functions in relation to primary education, public
health and roads. However, the Act did not affect municipal councils, of which only Nairobi,
Mombasa, Nakuru, Kisumu, Kitale and Eldoret were then in existence. The Local Government
(Transfer of Functions) Act expired on 31 March 1970; and was replaced by Legal Notice No. 41 of
1970 which amended the relevant enabling legislation specific to health (Public Health Act,
Malaria Prevention Act, and Food, Drugs and Chemical Substances Act), education (Education
Act), and relevant sections of the Local Government Regulations of 1963. Municipal councils are
the only local authorities which provide services in education and health sectors (Colebatch, 1973;
Sheffield, Barclay, Kinyanjui and Pearson 1974; Court and Kinyanjui, 1980; World Bank, 1992;
Smoke, 2001; and Mukui, Katui-Katua and Mungai, 2002). There is need for clarity on functions
vested in municipalities designated as counties (Nairobi and Mombasa) and municipalities nested
within counties (e.g. Kisumu), and its relationship with national and county budgets.
4.

THE CRA FORMULA

The CRA formula appears to be based on the need to increase access to services under County
governments, ensure equity in access to quality services with special attention to underserved
populations and areas, avoid interruption to service delivery in any part of the country (hold
harmless or grandfathering provisions), and ensure that growth objectives are not adversely
affected by equity considerations.

A county can also use the provision to repudiate a function assigned to it by the Constitution if the funding
for the function would reduce the quality and coverage of service compared to what is normally provided
through direct implementation by the national government.

However, as shown in Table 1 below, the criteria may not be straightforward. It is important to
ensure that the allocation criteria do not generate perverse incentives (unintended and
undesirable results) on performance 6. For example, a county that pursues strategies that are not
poverty reducing could receive more allocations in the future. Space as defined by a County
boundary and budget may not coincide with preferred (or traditional) healthcare service points for
some individuals and communities (partly based on access costs borne by the users), while the bona
fide owner of transit populations in need of emergency medical care may also be contestable
(King, 1997). There may be differences between geographically defined space and conception of
space as a dimension of social practice, especially because a social service (school, hospital, church,
or market centre) is normally immovable while the service seekers are mobile (Raper, 2000; and
Peeters and Thomas, 2007) 7.
Other perverse incentives include:

The risk to the national statistical system especially on indicators used as criteria for resource
allocation e.g. poverty and population;
Migration (population arbitrage) to neutralize some of the differences in per capita allocations
(Epple and Romer, 1991; Hercowitz and Pines, 1991; Wildasin, 1997; King, 1997);
A county free-riding on the national health budget through underperformance of lower-level
healthcare facilities; and
Recurrent cost problem of infrastructure funded by County governments but maintained by the
national government, and vice versa (Heller, 1975; Heller, 1979; Over, 1981; USAID, 1982;
Jennings, 1983; Agbonyitor, 1998).

For example, Bagaka (2008) observes that the Constituency Development Fund (CDF) has
promoted allocative efficiency and equity but at a cost of exporting tax burdens (operations and
maintenance) to the central government emanating from healthcare capital projects (clinics)
implemented at the local level. This growth was influenced by the number of new employees and
medical supplies and equipment needed to bring the local capital projects into operation. The
recurrent cost problem is a prisoners dilemma game where the solution is cooperation between
national, county and lower levels of government involved in project selection and implementation.
6

The term spirit of perverseness was coined by Edgar Allan Poe in his short stories The Black Cat, The Imp
of the Perverse and The Tell-Tale Heart to describe the primitive impulses of the human heart that makes
a man commit a vile or a stupid action, for no other reason than because he knows he should not; and to
do wrong for the wrongs sake only (Poe, 1884). He added that I am not more certain that I breathe, than
that the assurance of the wrong or error of any action is often the one unconquerable force which impels us,
and alone impels us to its prosecution. In The Black Cat, for example, the narrator declares that he hanged
the cat because I knew that in so doing I was committing a sin a deadly sin that would place his immortal
soul even beyond the reach of the infinite mercy of the Most Merciful and Most Terrible God.
Metempsychosis (transmigration of the soul) was also a prominent theme in Edgar Allan Poes (1850; 1909)
short stories Metzengerstein, Morella and Ligeia, principally to wreak vengeance on the narrator for
wrongs inflicted in an earlier life (Snodgrass, 2005).
7
Peeters and Thomas (2007) present a typology of public services between (a) standard and emergency
(ambulances, firefighters, police, etc.) depending on whether the users request must be processed with or
without delay; and (b) fixed when the user travels toward the service (e.g. schools) and mobile when the
service travels toward the user (e.g. home medical care). They also distinguish between services that are (a)
punctual, meaning that they are provided at places that, at a given scale, can be represented by a point e.g.
hospital, and (b) services that operate on networks e.g. communication routes, and energy and water supply
systems.

There can be varied interpretation of roles of national and county governments. For example,
disaster management is listed as a function of both levels, which could lead to confusion and poor
coordination when people are most in need (Leonard, 2011). Droughts are also different from
rapid-onset disasters and require management that has far more in common with sustainable
development than with disaster response, but the resilience component and disaster response may
fall under different budgets. The likelihood and impact of pervasive incentives can be minimized
through appropriate but nonintrusive checks and balances.
The issue of entitlement to benefits from a natural resource whose benefits are shared nationally or
benefit more than one county has no rival in confusion and obscurity. Examples include the oil find
in Turkana, and the community sharing of benefits from the Masai Mara National Reserve 8. Other
contestable issues are water resources, need for urban areas to compensate communities
downstream for polluting surface water, and price-based transfers. An example of price-based
transfers is adverse long-term changes in terms of trade between livestock and grains, which may
have progressively driven pastoralists out of their traditional occupations into cultivating marginal
lands and into camps for food aid, with the attendant environmental consequences (see Swift,
2006). There is even less clarity on (a) the appropriate formula for the distribution of devolved
revenues among localities in a county (horizontal revenue sharing); and (b) share of nationally
collected mineral revenue that should be returned to a mineral-bearing county on the principle of
derivation and compensation for ecological risks of oil and mineral production (see, Ojo, 2010, for
the Nigerian case).
Table 1: Relation between Allocation Criteria and Cost of Service Provision
Criteria
Population

Basic
Equal
Share
Levels
of
Poverty
Land Area

Factors/Assumptions Influencing Cost of Service Provision

Homogeneity of needs for each service provided;
The denominator problem with respect to day population (the base population for some
services) and night population (enumerated in censuses). This is especially the case
between Nairobi and neighboring dormitory towns located in other counties e.g. Ongata
Rongai, Kitengela, Ngong, Athi River, Githurai, Wangige, Kikuyu and Kiambu whose
economies depend largely on Nairobi citys influence (Kingoriah, 1980; Mukui, 2002);
Some county populations being served in neighboring counties due to proximity of
services;
The bona fide owner of transit populations in need of emergency medical care (and a
county preferentially assigning resources to health facilities that do not serve transit
populations);
Private provision of essential services e.g. healthcare and education
Equal administrative costs in diverse jurisdictions regardless of land area and terrain,
and population total and its distribution within the county
Poverty measurement and its updating over time;
Depth of poverty
Terrain and distribution of human settlements;
Uninhabited land area included in revenue sharing formula e.g. forests, national parks
and game reserves;
Homogeneity of a county between arable and non-arable land;

See Walpole, Karanja, Sitati and Leader-Williams (2003), Matheka (2005) and Waithaka (2012) on the
history of how some regions in Kenya managed to have community-owned wildlife areas and sanctuaries by
independence in 1963. The National Parks were managed by the central government, while National
Reserves were held in trust, and managed, by County Councils.

Criteria
Fiscal
Performance
General
concerns

Factors/Assumptions Influencing Cost of Service Provision

Whether land area is an appropriate proxy for distance to (or cost of) services
Robust indicators of fiscal performance;
No service delivery standards especially on gender and specific needs of women e.g.
maternal healthcare
Omission on sharing of Equalization Fund among eligible counties, and therefore total
resource envelope;
Clarity on roles between national and county governments;
Lack of clarity on micro Nile-basin issues (petroleum, water catchments, coal)
conservation and utilization of natural resources, and cost of abatement for pollution
especially to surface water;
Recurrent cost problem the care and feeding of a gift horse of infrastructure
funded by county governments but maintained by the national government, and vice
versa9

5.

THE NATURE OF INEQUALITIES IN KENYA

5.1

Analytical Methodology

The measures of inequality include money-metric measures, human capital (e.g. education and
health), access to amenities (e.g. potable water), and social indicators (e.g. child nutrition). The
abovementioned indicators refer to populations that survived. Consequently, the brief includes
demographic indicators (e.g. under-five mortality, life expectancy at age five to avoid crossover
effects with under-five mortality rate, and neonatal mortality and its share in under-five mortality)
in order to highlight those who failed to thrive due to a variety of factors.
A proper understanding of gender inequality requires information on position and condition of
women in relation to men. Position normally refers to leadership at public, community and
household levels, while condition includes factors that can be compared between men and women
(e.g. educational attainment) and those that cannot (e.g. reproductive health). Although most of the
measurable factors may have low gender gaps (e.g. primary school enrolment), Kenyas
achievements are generally low in incomparable indicators e.g. reproductive health (antenatal and
perinatal care). A focus on comparable indicators may have led to poor condition of womens
specific needs.
The main sources of information on poverty and inequality are the Kenya Integrated Household
Budget Survey (KIHBS) 2005/06, Kenya Demographic and Health Survey 2008-09, and the 1999
Population and Housing Census. Due to the poor performance of maternal health indicators
nationally and within regions, there will be need for special mention of delivery care (these
indicators have not changed for two decades).

The analogy of the recurrent cost problem to the care and feeding of a gift horse is due to A. Mead Over
(1981). The reference may have its origins in the expression no man ought to looke a geuen hors in the
mouth (meaning dont look a given horse in the mouth) which appears in John Heywoods A dialogue
conteinyng the nomber in effect of all the prouerbes in the Englishe tongue, compacte in a matter
concernyng two maner of mariages, made and set foorth by John Heywood (1546); in Samuel Butlers 1663
narrative poem Hudibras (Butler, 1854) as He neer considerd it, as loath: To look a gift-horse in the mouth;
and in St. Jeromes Epistle to the Ephesians (circa AD 400) as never inspect the teeth of a given horse from a
Latin text noli equi dentes inspicere donati.

The use of a countys indicators implies some level of homogeneity within a county, which in most
parts of Kenya is not likely to be the case. For example, Narok imputed county poverty rate (33.8%)
is the population-weighted average of Trans Mara (51.7%) and Narok (27.2%), while that of Siaya
County (35.3%) is the average of Bondo (25.0%) and Siaya (40.0%). In the case of counties
bordering Nairobi, a service may be procured from a neighboring county and vice versa; while the
share of private sector provision of essential services (e.g. healthcare and education) is hardly
known or uniform across counties.
The KIHBS 2005/06 presents data by district, while the Fact Sheet prepared by the Commission on
Revenue Allocation gives data by county. A simple approximation of a countys poverty rate is the
constituent districts poverty rates weighted by the respective districts share of county population
expressed in adult equivalents. As shown in Table 2, there are discrepancies between the imputed
KIHBS values and CRA estimates, and the county analysis below is based on the former. The 2009
population figures reported in CRA Fact Sheet and KNBS website for Kericho/Bomet,
Bungoma/Busia and Homa Bay/Migori/Kisii counties also differ due to redistribution within each of
the three population clusters. The two sources also report different figures on land area for Meru,
Homa Bay, Migori, Kisii, Kericho, Bomet, Kakamega, Vihiga, Bungoma and Busia counties.
5.2

Prevalence of Poverty

According to KIHBS 2005/06, the proportion of the rural population below the poverty line was
49.1%, with the lowest in Central province (30.4%), followed by Nyanza (47.6%), Rift Valley
(49.0%), Eastern (50.9%), Western (52.2%), Coast (69.7%) and North Eastern province (73.9%).
The averages for Central and Nyanza provinces lie below the rural national head count ratio while
the rest of the provinces lie above it.
As shown in Figure 1, the mountain of absolute poverty starts at 11.6 points above sea level (with
height normalized to 100) in Kajiado, with a gentle slope in the middle but with a steep slope over
the arid and semi-arid districts before reaching its peak at Turkana at 94.9 points. The halfway
point (53.3) lies between Bungoma (51.4) and Elgeyo/Marakwet (55.7). By the time the
mountaineer is three quarters uphill at 74.1 points, he will be somewhere between Samburu (73.5
points) and Kwale (74.7 points). The last quarter expressed in height above sea level is arid and
rather steep.
Table 3 also shows the distribution of the population in adult equivalents and the contribution of
each regional domain in the poverty measure. Where the contribution of the poverty measure is
higher than the regions contribution to total population, the region has a higher measure of
poverty than the national mean. For example, Central provinces share of population is higher than
its contribution to the measure of poverty, while those for Coast and North Eastern provinces are
all above their respective population shares because Coast and North Eastern provinces are
disproportionately represented among the poor.

Table 2: Prevalence of Absolute Poverty by County, 2005/06 (%)

COUNTY

Mombasa
Kwale
Kilifi
Tana River
Lamu
Taita/Taveta
Garissa
Wajir
Mandera
Marsabit
Isiolo
Meru
Tharaka-Nithi
Embu
Kitui
Machakos
Makueni
Nyandarua
Nyeri
Kirinyaga
Muranga
Kiambu
Turkana
West Pokot
Samburu
Trans Nzoia
Uasin Gishu
Elgeyo/Marakwet
Nandi
Baringo
Laikipia
Nakuru
Narok
Kajiado
Kericho
Bomet
Kakamega
Vihiga
Bungoma
Busia
Siaya
Kisumu
Homa Bay
Migori
Kisii
Nyamira
Nairobi
TOTAL

Population
(2009) CRA

Population
(2009) KNBS

Population
CRAKNBS

CRA
Poverty
rate (%)

KIHBS
rate (%)

CRAKIHBS
(%)

Land
area in
km2

1 minus 2

939,370
649,931
1,109,735
240,075
101,539
284,657
623,060
661,941
1,025,756
291,166
143,294
1,356,301
365,330
516,212
1,012,709
1,098,584
884,527
596,268
693,558
528,054
942,581
1,623,282
855,399
512,690
223,947
818,757
894,179
369,998
752,965
555,561
399,227
1,603,325
850,920
687,312
758,339
724,186
1,660,651
554,622
1,630,934
488,075
842,304
968,909
958,791
563,033
1,511,422
598,252
3,138,369
38,610,097

939,370
649,931
1,109,735
240,075
101,539
284,657
623,060
661,941
1,025,756
291,166
143,294
1,356,301
365,330
516,212
1,012,709
1,098,584
884,527
596,268
693,558
528,054
942,581
1,623,282
855,399
512,690
223,947
818,757
894,179
369,998
752,965
555,561
399,227
1,603,325
850,920
687,312
590,690
891,835
1,660,651
554,622
1,375,063
743,946
842,304
968,909
963,794
917,170
1,152,282
598,252
3,138,369
38,610,097

37.6
74.9
71.4
76.9
32.7
54.8
49.2
84.0
87.8
83.2
72.6
28.3
48.7
42.0
63.5
59.6
64.1
46.3
32.7
25.2
29.9
27.2
94.3
69.8
73.0
50.2
51.3
55.5
47.4
57.4
50.5
40.1
33.8
11.6
44.2
46.5
53.0
41.8
52.9
66.7
35.3
47.8
44.1
46.7
60.7
48.1
22.5

37.6
74.7
70.7
76.9
32.9
57.2
49.7
84.3
89.1
83.7
71.3
27.8
48.9
41.8
63.1
58.8
64.3
46.1
31.3
24.9
30.4
26.6
94.9
68.5
73.5
49.5
49.7
55.7
46.9
57.8
49.3
38.0
34.3
11.6
37.0
59.0
51.3
40.1
51.4
66.0
35.3
45.0
45.0
48.4
59.4
47.2
21.3

3 minus
4
0.0
0.2
0.7
0.0
-0.2
-2.4
-0.5
-0.3
-1.3
-0.5
1.3
0.5
-0.2
0.2
0.4
0.8
-0.2
0.2
1.4
0.3
-0.5
0.6
-0.6
1.3
-0.5
0.7
1.6
-0.2
0.5
-0.4
1.2
2.1
-0.5
0.0
7.2
-12.5
1.7
1.7
1.5
0.7
0.0
2.8
-0.9
-1.7
1.3
0.9
1.2

0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
167,649
-167,649
0
0
255,871
-255,871
0
0
-5,003
-354,137
359,140
0
0
0

10

219
8,270
12,610
38,437
6,273
17,084
44,175
56,686
25,991
70,961
25,336
6,936
2,639
2,818
30,496
6,208
8,009
3,245
3,337
1,479
2,559
2,543
68,680
9,169
21,022
2,496
3,345
3,030
2,884
11,015
9,462
7,495
17,933
21,901
2,479
2,471
3,051
531
3,593
1,134
2,530
2,086
2,586
1,969
2,542
899
695

Land
area
County
share
(%)
6

Diameter
County
share (%)

0.038
1.423
2.169
6.612
1.079
2.939
7.599
9.751
4.471
12.207
4.358
1.193
0.454
0.485
5.246
1.068
1.378
0.558
0.574
0.254
0.440
0.437
11.815
1.577
3.616
0.429
0.575
0.521
0.496
1.895
1.628
1.289
3.085
3.768
0.426
0.425
0.525
0.091
0.618
0.195
0.435
0.359
0.445
0.339
0.437
0.155
0.120

0.344
2.113
2.609
4.556
1.840
3.037
4.884
5.533
3.746
6.190
3.699
1.935
1.194
1.234
4.058
1.831
2.080
1.324
1.342
0.894
1.176
1.172
6.090
2.225
3.369
1.161
1.344
1.279
1.248
2.439
2.260
2.012
3.112
3.439
1.157
1.155
1.284
0.535
1.393
0.783
1.169
1.061
1.182
1.031
1.172
0.697
0.613

Figure 1: The Mountain of Absolute Poverty, 2005/06 (%)

Source: Table 2

11

Table 3: Rural Overall Poverty by Adult Equivalents, 2005/06

Total Rural
Central
Coast
Eastern
North Eastern
Nyanza
Rift Valley
Western

Headcount (%)
49.1
30.4
69.7
50.9
73.9
47.6
49.0
52.3

% of Population
100.0
14.5
7.1
19.6
3.1
15.2
26.7
13.8

Contribution to Poverty (%)

100.0
9.0
10.1
20.3
4.6
14.7
26.7
14.7

Source: Kenya Integrated Household Budget Survey 2005/06

5.3

Education Indicators

The net attendance ratio (NAR) for primary school is the percentage of the primary school age (613 years) population attending primary school. The NAR for secondary school is the percentage of
secondary school age (14-17 years) population attending secondary school. The gross attendance
ratio (GAR) for primary school is the total number of primary school students, expressed as a
percentage of the official primary school-age population. The GAR for secondary school is the total
number of secondary school students, expressed as a percentage of the official secondary school-age
population. If there are significant numbers of overage and underage students at a given level of
schooling, the GAR can exceed 100 percent. The Gender Parity Index (GPI) for primary school is
the ratio of primary school NAR (GAR) for females to NAR (GAR) for males. GPI for secondary
school is the ratio of secondary school NAR (GAR) for females to NAR (GAR) for males. A GPI less
than 1 indicates gender disparity in favor of the male population, i.e. a higher proportion of males
than females attends that level of schooling. A GPI greater than 1 indicates gender disparity in
favor of females. A GPI of one indicates parity or equality between the rates of participation for the
sexes.
Table 4 shows NAR and GAR for the de facto household population by sex and level of schooling,
and GPI based on the Kenya Demographic and Health Survey 2008-09. The data for NAR indicates
that 79% of children of primary school age were attending school, and is slightly higher for girls
(80%) than for boys (78%). The NAR for primary school is higher in urban (84%) than in rural
areas (78%). The GAR indicates that there are children in primary school who are not of primary
school age, with ratios of 113 and 110 for males and females, respectively. As expected, the NAR
and GAR are lower at secondary school level than at primary school level.
In primary school, there is parity between the sexes because GPI is close to one. However, GPI for
secondary school drops to 0.75, indicating a bias in favor of males. The lowest GAR was in North
Eastern province (21.4%), Coast (32.1%) and Western (33.6%). In particular, the GPI is quite low at
secondary school level, especially in Western (0.51), Rift Valley (0.55) and North Eastern province
(0.74).

12

Table 4: School Attendance Ratios, 2008-09

Characteristic
Male
(%)
PRIMARY
SCHOOL
RESIDENCE
Urban
Rural
PROVINCE
Nairobi
Central
Coast
Eastern
Nyanza
Rift Valley
Western
North Eastern
KENYA
SECONDARY
SCHOOL
RESIDENCE
Urban
Rural
PROVINCE
Nairobi
Central
Coast
Eastern
Nyanza
Rift Valley
Western
North Eastern
KENYA

Net attendance ratio

Female
Total
Gender parity
(%)

(%)

index

Male
(%)

Gross attendance ratio

Female
Total
Gender parity
(%)

(%)

index

85.4
76.4

82.5
79.6

83.9
77.9

0.97
1.04

106.8
114.3

100.4
111.2

103.5
112.8

0.94
0.97

89.8
89.4
69.4
80.3
85.3
70.5
79
55.7
77.6

92.1
90.5
73.1
84.7
87.5
73.2
82
50.5
80.0

91.1
89.9
71.4
82.5
86.3
71.9
80.5
53.4
78.8

1.03
1.01
1.05
1.06
1.03
1.04
1.04
0.91
1.03

102.7
117.5
106.3
116.9
128.7
100.8
127.8
88
113.3

100.2
117.1
95.3
114.6
121.5
101
128.5
66.6
109.6

101.3
117.3
100.6
115.8
125.3
100.9
128.1
78.3
111.5

0.98
1
0.9
0.98
0.94
1
1.01
0.76
0.97

43.7
13.1

32
16

37.5
14.5

0.73
1.23

79.4
46.6

61.1
34.3

69.8
40.5

0.77
0.73

55
18.6
22.1
15.8
16.1
14.4
14
10.6
17.0

51.1
31.2
14.6
17.8
23.6
14.4
6.2
10
18.4

53
25.3
18.5
16.7
19.6
14.4
10.3
10.4
17.7

0.93
1.68
0.66
1.13
1.46
1
0.44
0.95
1.08

102
56.8
34.2
50.9
47.8
58.3
43.9
24.1
50.8

84.7
57.5
29.9
43.2
42.5
31.8
22.2
17.9
38.2

92.9
57.2
32.1
47.4
45.3
43.8
33.6
21.4
44.6

0.83
1.01
0.87
0.85
0.89
0.55
0.51
0.74
0.75

Source: Kenya Demographic and Health Survey 2008-09

5.4

Nutritional Status among Young Children

The height-for-age index (stunting) is an indicator of linear growth retardation and cumulative
growth deficits. Stunting reflects failure to receive adequate nutrition over a long period and is
affected by recurrent and chronic illness. Stunting therefore represents the long-term effects of
malnutrition in a population and is not sensitive to recent, short-term changes in dietary intake.
As shown in Table 5, 35% of children under five were stunted, while the proportion severely
stunted was 14%. Stunting is highest in children aged 18-23 months (46%) and lowest in children
aged less than 6 months (11%). Severe stunting shows a similar trend, where children age 18-23
months have the highest proportion of severely stunted children (22%) and those less than 6
months have the lowest proportion (4%). Children living in rural areas are moderately and severely
stunted to a greater extent (37%) when compared with urban children (26%). At the provincial
level, Eastern province (42%) has the highest proportion of stunted children, while Nairobi
province had the lowest (29%).
13

Table 5: Nutritional Status of Children, 2008-09 (height-for-age)

Characteristic

Percentage below -3 standard

deviations

Percentage below -2 standard

deviations

8.7
15.3

26.4
37.1

-1
-1.5

8.7
9.4
14.3
17.1
13
14.9
14.8
17.7
14.2

28.5
32.4
39
41.9
30.9
35.7
34.2
35.2
35.3

-1.1
-1.3
-1.4
-1.7
-1.2
-1.5
-1.5
-1.1
-1.4

RESIDENCE
Urban
Rural
PROVINCE
Nairobi
Central
Coast
Eastern
Nyanza
Rift Valley
Western
North Eastern
KENYA

Mean Z-score (standard

deviations)

Source: Kenya Demographic and Health Survey 2008-09

5.5

Demographic Indicators

Child mortality indicators are categorized into neonatal mortality (probability of dying within the
first month of life), infant mortality (probability of dying before the first birthday) and under-five
mortality (probability of dying before the fifth birthday) expressed per 1,000 live births. The underfive mortality was 74, i.e. one in every 14 children born in Kenya dies before its fifth birthday,
compared with neonatal mortality of 31 (or one in every 32 children).
As shown in Table 6, the regions with the highest neonatal mortality rates were Nairobi (48) and
Coast (44), while the highest under-five mortality rates were in Nyanza (149) and Western
province (121). In particular, the ratio of neonatal mortality to under-five morality was high in
Nairobi (75%), Central (61%) and Eastern (60%), and lowest in Western (20%).
Table 6: Early Childhood Mortality Rates by Region and Residence, 2008-09
Neonatal

Infant

Under-five

RESIDENCE
Urban
32
63
74
Rural
33
58
86
PROVINCE
Nairobi
48
60
64
Central
31
42
51
Coast
44
71
87
Eastern
31
39
52
Nyanza
39
95
149
Rift Valley
30
48
59
Western
24
65
121
North Eastern
33
57
80
KENYA
31
52
74
Source: Kenya Demographic and Health Survey 2008-09

14

Neonatal/Under-five Mortality (%)

43
38
75
61
51
60
26
51
20
41
42

Figure 2: Neonatal, Infant and Under-five Mortality Rates, 2008-09

Source: Kenya Demographic and Health Survey 2008-09

In most human populations, more males are born than females, probably as an evolutionary
adaptation to the fact that females have higher survival probabilities than males, such that their
numbers are almost even by the time they reach marriageable ages (Poston, 2005). However, these
patterns can be affected by extreme forms of human intervention and disturbance e.g. war (which
would reduce significantly the numbers of young males), international migration, and femalespecific abortion.
In Kenya, mortality is relatively high at infancy and early childhood, with a trough around age 1014 years, and then steadily climbs to the older ages with a second peak at age 70+ years. Sex
differences in mortality are affected by biological survival probabilities that tend to favor women;
childbearing (which penalizes women); differences in socioeconomic status which in most cases
favor males; and differences in behavioral patterns (e.g. alcohol, tobacco, drugs and accidents) that
tend to penalize men. Based on the 1999 Population and Housing Census, there were more female
than male survivors at each specified age, while life expectancy for females was also higher.
However, at age groups 20-24 and 25-29 years, female mortality is higher than that of males
(Kenya, 2002), probably because the period coincides with the peak of childbearing.
Table 7 shows life expectancy at ages 5 and 15 years. The results show that the lowest male life
expectancy at age 5 was in Nyanza and the highest in North Eastern, Central and Rift Valley; while
the lowest male life expectancy at age 15 was in Nyanza and the highest in North Eastern, Rift
Valley and Central provinces. This shows that the main spatial differences in survivorship occur
below the age of 5 years, hence the need to understand the causal factors of child mortality in
various spatial, environmental and cultural jurisdictions/domains. In North Eastern province, life
expectancy for males is higher than that of females despite the expected biological advantage in
favor of women globally at about 5 years (Waldron, 1976; Waldron, 1983; Waldron, 1993;
Waldron, 1998; Sen, 1992a; Kalben, 2000; Lemaire, 2002; Pampel, 2005; Elo and Drevenstedt, 2005;
UNDP, 2007; Abdulraheem, Jimoh and Oladipo, 2011; and Hosseinpoor, Harper, Lee, Lynch,
Mathers and Abou-Zahr, 2012). The higher life expectancy of males over females in North Eastern
15

province may be a reflection of lower male investment in own offspring and higher overall parental
investment in male children (Kruger and Nesse, 2004; Kruger and Nesse, 2006; Kruger, 2008).
Table 7: Life Expectancy at Ages 5 and 15 years, 1999
Male
Nairobi
Central
Coast
Eastern
Nyanza
Rift Valley
Western
North Eastern
KENYA

At 5 years
Female
54.6
59.6
55.4
57.5
46.7
59.6
54.3
64.7
54.8

Male
60.6
67.6
62.2
65.8
53.7
67.2
60.9
62.9
63.0

At 15 years
Female
46.2
50.8
47.4
48.8
39.4
51.0
46.4
56.0
46.6

51.9
58.5
53.7
56.8
45.8
58.3
60.9
54.1
54.3

Source: 1999 Population and Housing Census: Analytical Report on Mortality

5.6

Assistance during Delivery

The 2008-09 KDHS showed that 43% of births are delivered in a health facility, while 56% are
delivered at home. As shown in Table 8, 44% of births are delivered under the supervision of a
health professional, usually a nurse or midwife. Traditional birth attendants continue to play a vital
role in delivery, assisting with 28% of births (the same percentage as are assisted by nurses and
midwives). Relatives and friends assist in 21% of births, and for 7% of births, mothers do not
receive any form of assistance. A reported 53% of women did not receive a postnatal check up. The
percentage of live births assisted at delivery by a skilled provider is way below those of Zimbabwe
(66.2%), Namibia (81.4%) and Democratic Republic of Congo (74%) as shown by their respective
Demographic and Health Surveys. Kenyas maternal mortality ratio was estimated at 488 maternal
deaths per 100,000 live births. Indeed the IMF (2012) observes that Millennium Development Goal
5 on maternal health is one of the most challenging goals given that maternal mortality ratio has
actually risen from 414 in 2003 to 488 in 2009. There is need for more attention to address
challenges in this area in order to reverse this trend.
Table 8: Assistance during Delivery, 2008-09 (%)
Doctor

RESIDENCE
Urban
Rural
PROVINCE
Nairobi
Central
Coast
Eastern
Nyanza
Rift Valley
Western
North Eastern
KENYA

Nurse/
midwife

Otherhealthworker

Traditionalbirth-attendant

Relative/
other

No
one

Dont
know/
missing

Total

Skilled
provider

28.3
13.3

46.5
23.5

0.1
0.6

15.2
30.4

7.8
24.2

1.6
8.0

0.5
0.1

100.0
100.0

74.8
36.8

33.7
45.0
21.3
16.9
13.5
10.0
5.5
1.0
16.0

55.2
28.8
24.3
26.2
32.0
23.7
20.3
30.6
27.8

0.1
0.1
0.2
0.0
1.5
0.4
0.1
0.7
0.5

5.6
1.7
21.0
27.8
26.2
30.7
45.0
64.2
27.6

3.7
17.8
27.5
26.0
20.5
26.7
14.2
1.9
21.2

1.2
6.6
5.4
2.9
6.3
8.3
14.6
0.0
6.8

0.5
0.0
0.3
0.2
0.0
0.1
0.3
1.6
0.2

100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0

88.9
73.8
45.6
43.1
45.5
33.7
25.8
31.6
43.8

Skilled provider includes doctor, nurse or midwife

Source: Kenya Demographic and Health Survey 2008-09

16

5.7

Distance to Nearest Health Facility

As shown in Table 9, nationally, only 11.3% of Kenyans travel one kilometer or less to reach a
health facility, while about a half (47.7%) travel for 5 kilometers or more. This national average
conceals huge urban and rural differences. For instance, while only 7.4% of rural dwellers travel for
one kilometer or less to reach a health facility, this proportion is 48.5% for urban residents. In
addition, more than a half of rural dwellers travel 5 or more kilometers to reach a health facility,
while only 11.9% of urban dwellers travel similar distances.
Table 9: Percentage Distribution of Communities by Distance to nearest Health Facility, 2005/06
Region
KENYA
Rural
Urban
Nairobi
Central
Kiambu
Kirinyaga
Muranga
Nyandarua
Nyeri
Thika
Maragua
Coast
Kilifi
Kwale
Lamu
Taita Taveta
Tana River
Malindi
Eastern
Embu
Isiolo
Kitui
Makueni
Machakos
Marsabit
Mbeere
Meru Central
Moyale
Mwingi
Meru North
Tharaka
Meru South
North Eastern
Garissa
Mandera
Wajir
Nyanza
Gucha
Homa Bay
Kisii
Kisumu

500 metres or
less
4.9
3.0
23.3
5.7

500 metres - 1 Km

1.1 - 2.9 Kms

3 - 4.9 Kms

5 or more Kms

Total Count

6.4
4.4
25.2
10.9
6.2

12.4
12.0
15.9
8.2
16.0
31.2
19.2
10.3
14.7
23.8
3.3

28.5
29.0
23.7
60.7
43.4

47.7
51.5
11.9
20.2
28.6
68.8
37.6
51.8
36.9
10.0

356,576
322,352
34,224
5,171
57,150
3,864
9,295
5,558
9,819
16,493
6,101
6,020
24,032
8,866
2,302
654
5,676
2,865
3,669
60,548
2,620
1,002
7,601
8,745
14,555
1,620
2,724
6,524
285
2,629
10,147
1,110
990
8,754
1,866
2,947
3,941
61,272
5,732
4,857
7,470
4,389

22.0
12.5

3.7
8.0

3.1

1.5

2.1
1.9
2.2

3.5

7.7
14.3
7.7
6.2

13.0
26.4

11.7
21.2
5.6
5.2
5.2

2.4
15.1
5.6
2.3
6.6

8.2
1.0
7.0
16.8

11.9

43.2
16.0
40.8
39.3
96.7
58.4
16.9
49.1
19.1
46.6
5.6
27.2
50.4
48.8
10.1
10.8
35.3
10.3
47.4

21.9
9.3

8.3

3.5
11.8

7.7

29.3
32.2
42.5

3.2
6.8
2.0
0.1

2.1
7.8

22.8

1.1

1.8
25.5

11.6
10.2
3.6
14.3

17

36.8
38.3
44.7
27.1
48.4

33.9
60.3
65.5
50.9
80.9
36.1
58.0
88.8
63.8
37.8
51.2
79.6
87.3
61.5
100.0
70.8
32.2
78.1
70.7
50.3
100.0
57.5
85.7
88.2
70.4
95.9
43.7
51.5
49.9
32.0
51.6

Region

500 metres or
less

Kuria
Migori
Nyamira
Rachuonyo
Siaya
Suba
Bondo
Nyando
Rift Valley
Baringo
Bomet
Keiyo
Kajiado
Kericho
Koibatek
Laikipia
Marakwet
Nakuru
Nandi
Narok
Samburu
Trans Mara
Trans Nzoia
Turkana
Uasin Gishu
West Pokot
Buret
Western
Bungoma
Busia
Mt. Elgon
Kakamega
Lugari
Teso
Vihiga
Butere/Mumias

500 metres - 1 Km

1.1 - 2.9 Kms

6.8
12.6
0.9

7.6
15.5
22.5

10.6

23.7
15.7
6.7

51.6

9.9

28.8
22.1
30.3
22.2
25.8
28.2
31.3
14.6

17.0
9.2
2.4

0.6

7.1
11.3
13.6
3.0
9.2
9.8

6.3

3 - 4.9 Kms

5 or more Kms

Total Count

7.7
41.2
24.9
49.1
49.6
35.7
10.8
49.7
17.7
25.2
0.7
56.5

92.3
44.4
46.9
50.0
27.9
64.3
13.9
34.6
48.0
65.5
96.4
43.5
61.3
77.9
47.1
26.3
27.0
66.3
22.6
75.7
72.2
76.3
48.6
81.3
19.5
65.0
20.0
45.0
48.4
36.9
53.8
82.7
21.4
45.9
20.6
49.2

2,211
8,078
8,105
4,555
7,622
2,435
3,308
2,511
85,022
1,867
3,175
1,459
3,035
1,699
2,451
3,718
2,807
16,101
10,982
4,150
941
947
6,018
3,633
12,434
4,132
5,475
54,627
14,945
9,142
2,186
5,989
1,562
3,577
9,102
8,124

15.5
40.2
33.7
2.5
30.7
27.8

23.7
3.9

31.7

15.9

18.7
46.8

11.4

1.7

5.7
6.9
3.7

44.9
6.3
1.7
1.9

20.7
35.0
35.0
28.6
23.2
44.9
36.0

4.9
12.7
11.0

14.4
19.7
12.6
10.2
2.3
17.3
9.0
29.4
1.9

10.0
27.1
22.9
1.0
12.9

34.2
9.5
38.0
35.9

Source: Kenya Integrated Household Budget Survey 2005/06

5.8

Summary of Main Findings

Sex-disaggregated data is normally reported on indicators that are comparable between the sexes
(e.g. school enrolment), but indicators of womens specific needs (e.g. maternal care) have stagnated
and are even lower than for some Sub-Saharan countries with lower GDP per capita. The age
groups 20-24 and 25-29 years is the only period along the human lifecycle where there is higher
male than female survivorship as measured by age-specific mortality rates, probably because the
period coincides with the peak of childbearing. The demographic indicators show a
disproportionately high share of neonatal mortality to under-five mortality. The main spatial
differences in survivorship occur below the age of 5 years, hence the need to understand the causal
factors of child mortality in various spatial, environmental and cultural jurisdictions/domains.

18

The analysis shows multiple deprivations by region e.g. high poverty rates go hand in hand with
poor child outcomes (nutrition), low school enrolments, and longer distances to health facilities.
The regions with low enrolment rates also tend to have higher gender disparities, pointing to some
cultural dynamics that discourage or are not supportive of female education. However, there are
some discrepancies between poverty estimates derived from the KIHBS 2005/06 and the Fact Sheet
prepared by the Commission on Revenue Allocation that need to be harmonized.
Kenyas achievements in maternal and reproductive health indicators are quite low, even in
comparison with countries with lower human development index (UNDP, 2011). The indicators
include relatively high adolescent fertility rate (100.2 live births per 1,000 women aged 15-19
years) and maternal mortality ratio (488 maternal deaths per 100,000 live births), low proportion of
births attended by skilled health personnel (44%), low contraceptive prevalence rate (46%), and
high unmet need for family planning 10 at about 43% (Kenya National Bureau of Statistics and ICF
Macro, 2010; UNDP, 2011). There is need for special mention of movement towards gender
equality in access to services (especially education) in county planning and annual reporting, in
addition to maternal and reproductive health indicators.
6.

OTHER CONSIDERATIONS IN REVENUE ALLOCATION

Apart from population and poverty indicators and the need to provide minimum resource needs to
avoid interruption in service delivery, a prime consideration is the cost of providing services in
different jurisdictions (land area, dispersal of human settlements, road network, cultural barriers to
access, etc).
There are enablers (basic physical and social infrastructure required by service providers) e.g. roads,
communication, security, and cultural enablers (inhibitors) supportive (obstructive) to women and
children. As an illustration, health-seeking behavior in case of child delivery depends on:
a) Education and knowledge of the mother, and access to reproductive health information;
b) Decision making processes at family level on care;
c) Transport and logistics and in-transit care (distance, road infrastructure, timely availability
of transport, cost, security in transit);
d) Health facility (personnel, facilities) if need for further referral: transport and logistics.
The prime movers in resource needs are therefore social indicators/poverty levels, enablers, cost of
providing each service, and capacity of community personnel to provide services (e.g. technical
knowledge to service an automatic transmission vehicle). There is therefore need for
information/focus on:
Resource requirements for achieving targets in selected social indicators (effect of
population, poverty and terrain variables);
The need for statistics used as a basis for sharing revenue among counties to pass the
credibility test in terms of quality and timeliness e.g. population and levels of poverty;
Develop criteria for identifying marginalized areas/counties for purposes of the Equalization
Fund, and initiate collection/culling of data for the criteria;
10

Unmet need for family planning refers to the desire of women to delay or postpone their next birth for at
least two years, or to not have any more births, while not using a method of family planning. According to
the Kenya Demographic and Health Survey 2008-2009, nearly 43% of recent births among women aged 1549 years were unintended as a result of this unfulfilled need.

19

Criteria for allocation of Equalization Fund between eligible counties;

Functional and constitutional relevance of existing devolved funds (e.g. CDF and Local
Authority Transfer Fund) to determine their continued existence 11;
Mapping a countys specific needs with each funding window to get a holistic picture on
funding from national, county and equalization fund;
Sequencing in county budget making for achievement of long term goals (and its relation
with national budget), i.e. use of Medium-Term Expenditure Framework (MTEF) at local
level;
Heterogeneity of needs within a county, and allocations within counties (including
urban/rural);
Countys supervisory role of national government at the local level e.g. in dam
construction;
Specific concern on maternal health indicators (antenatal, delivery, postpartum care)
within the health sector indicator framework and goals;
Coordination between national and county budget priorities and availability of funding,
including for enablers;
The CRA formula cannot capture everything, hence the need for performance criteria to
encourage consideration of specific gender inequalities in access to basic services (primary
healthcare and education, performance in education), and child health (e.g. immunization
effort) and nutrition;
While natural resource conservation and utilization does not fall under the mandate of the
CRA, it is necessary to prepare policy and legislation to addresses sharing of resources
arising from the exploitation of natural resources, as this affects a countys resource
envelope and conservation/abatement costs.

The credibility of indicators used in the CRA allocation formula also needs scrutiny. When
releasing preliminary reports of the 2009 Population and Housing Census, the Minister for
Planning, National Development and Vision 2030 announced that some districts had reported
inconsistent figures. In eight constituencies, the rate of population increase was higher than what
the birth and death rates (population dynamics) would support; age and sex profiles deviated from
the norm; and significant growth in household size without accompanying growth in number of
households. For example, the statistics on enumerated population and growth rates between 1999
and 2009 shows that North Eastern is the only province where the enumerated population in 2009
was more than double the 1999 population, with a compounded annual growth rate of 9.16%.
However, the High Court reversed the Ministers nullification of the census count for Lagdera,
Mandera East, Mandera Central, Mandera West, Wajir East, Turkana North, Turkana South and
Turkana Central constituencies, and CRA is therefore obliged to use the enumerated population.
CRA applied poverty gap indices from KIHBS 2005/2006 to the 2009 enumerated population,
which implies that errors in population estimates affect allocation through the population
parameter and the poverty parameter. The enumerated population was also used in allocating 80
more constituencies in accordance with the Constitution (Independent Electoral and Boundaries

11

The Taskforce on Devolved Government (2011) stated that, the place of CDF and its operation as an aspect
of Parliamentary business can no longer be justified. The role of service delivery is purely a matter for the
National and County governments.

20

Commission, 2012), which confers further exorbitant privilege to areas that may have interfered
with the integrity of the 2009 census enumeration process 12.
Table 10: Enumerated Population by Province, 1999-2009
Province
Kenya
Nairobi
Central
Coast
Eastern
N. Eastern
Nyanza
Rift Valley
Western

7.

Enumerated population
1999
2009
28,686,607
38,610,097
2,143,254
3,138,369
3,724,159
4,383,743
2,487,264
3,324,805
4,631,779
5,668,123
962,143
2,311,259
4,392,196
5,442,711
6,987,036
10,006,805
3,358,776
4,334,282

% Change
34.59
46.43
17.71
33.67
22.37
140.22
23.92
43.22
29.04

1999-2009
Compounded Annual Growth Rate (%)
3.02
3.89
1.64
2.94
2.04
9.16
2.17
3.66
2.58

LAND AREA AS PROXY FOR COST OF SERVICE DELIVERY

The CRA formula uses the total (inhabited and uninhabited) land area of a county to distribute the
share of revenue allocated to land area (8 percent). However, the cost of providing services in
geographical domains of different sizes is more appropriately modeled by transect through the
region to a hypothetical central point. If the region resembles a circle, a transect from a central
point can be estimated as radius of a circle, which simply means that the square root of land area
would be an appropriate measure of relative sizes of counties for the purpose of revenue sharing
(see Table 2 for county shares of land area based on radius/diameter of a circle). For other shapes,
(population-weighted) centroid methods can be used to estimate distances to various service points
(Lloyd, 2007; Peeters and Thomas, 2007; Hastie, Tibshirani and Friedman, 2009). The estimated
mean distance would be a more appropriate basis for comparison of cost of providing services and
sharing revenue among counties along the land area criterion, unless other factors (e.g. uninhabited
areas, terrain and soil types) are also considered.
Once distances are estimated, it would be unrealistic to assume that transport cost per unit to
various service points is directly proportional to distance, due to economies of scale and
economies of distance see Lorenz (1907), Gabre-Madhin (1991), Lederer (1994), McCann
(2005), Keskin (2007), Fingleton and McCann (2007), and Fingleton (2008). The economies of scale
(quantity principle) in transportation is the decrease in cost per unit of weight as the size of a
shipment increases, while economies of distance (tapering principle) refers to decreased
transportation cost per unit of weight as distance increases (Bowersox, Closs and Cooper, 2002;
Fingleton and McCann, 2007). For example, freight and passenger transport costs (C) are normally
concave quadratic functions of distance (L) to reflect the fact that total costs are not linear in
distance but increase in distance with a decreasing variation rate, i.e. C = aL bL2 (dAspremont,
Gabszewicz and Thisse, 1979; Economides, 1986; Anderson, 1988; de Frutosa, Hamoudi and Jarque,

12

Exorbitant privilege refers to the dominance of US dollar in the worlds monetary system as holding of
foreign currency reserves by central banks of many countries, and for invoicing and settling international
transactions, including even imports and exports that do not touch U.S. shores (Eichengreen, 2011; Butler,
2012).

21

1999; and Carr and Mendelsohn, 2003) 13 14. However, the transport cost function with respect
distance would be of concern to county planners, and does not therefore necessarily influence the
revenue allocation among counties along the land area criterion.
8.

EPILOGUE

William Francis Sutton, the immaculately dressed bank robber, is credited with Suttons Law: when
asked why he robbed banks, he responded, Because thats where the money is (cited in Bradford,
2011). According to Bradford (2011), Sutton understood the inquiry to be why he robbed banks
rather than homes, or petrol stations, or church offering plates; while the intention of Mitch
Ohnstad, the newspaper reporter, was on what impelled him to crime 15. The heightened political
competition in governorate (county) seats is probably because that is where the money will be.

13

Hotelling (1929) was the starting point of an intense discussion on optimal location for two firms
competing to sell a homogeneous product to customers spread evenly along a linear market. Hotelling
claimed that firms will locate in the middle. It was not until 1979 that dAspremont, Gabszewicz and Thisse
(1979) showed that Hotellings argument was invalid, because it assumed linear (rather than quadratic)
transportation costs with respect to distance. Similarly, human capital earnings are modeled as a function of
education and on-the-job training (Mincer, 1958; 1974). At any point (t) in an individuals lifetime, logearnings is depicted as a function of the schooling phase of investment in years (S) and concave quadratic of
labour market experience (t): lneYi(t) = a0 + a1Si + a2ti + a3ti2 + 1. Although the second-order polynomial
specification of labour market experience is relatively standard in the literature, Murphy and Welch (1990)
have shown that higher-order polynomials may provide better fit to data (see also Trostel, 2005, on
nonlinearity in returns to education).
14

A sister to the nonlinear transport cost function is the distance decay function, which suggests that
economic interactions across geographical space often display inverse square law (interaction between places
is inversely related to the square of the distance separating them) or negative exponential (or other nonlinear
functional form) pattern of distance decay, ranging from commuting to migration to trade in goods and
services. This means that most interactions occur over short distances, and interchange decreases as distance
increases, although the rate of distance decay varies with the type of activity (Taylor, 1971; Haynes, 1974;
Haynes, 1975; Fellmann, Getis and Getis, 2003; Han and Timmermans, 2006; Fingleton and McCann, 2007;
Lloyd, 2007; and Deza and Deza, 2009). The distance decay function is based on the so-called First Law of
Geography that everything is related to everything else, but near things are more related than distant things
(Tobler, 1970). However, distance as an economic (rather than Euclidean) concept refers to the ease or
difficulty for goods, services, labor, capital, information, and ideas to traverse space, and its relationship with
distances between two locations and the physical features separating them is not always straightforward
(World Bank, 2009). Economic issues are normally connected with time and space, and space was formally
analyzed by Hotelling (1929) and elaborated upon by Smithies (1941). The Smithies (1941) version assumes
purchases by demanders decline with distance from the seller, which is consistent with the use of the concept
of distance decay in demand analysis as a complement to nonlinear transportation cost models on the supply
side (Ponsard, 1983). The concept of distance decay and local mobility among young children in rural Kenya
was used to study the spatial and temporal patterns of measles, which showed that limited local mobility of
young children was related to low levels of susceptibility and slow diffusion of measles epidemics (Ferguson
and Leeuwenburg, 1981).
15
Sutton claimed that he never uttered these words and the credit belongs to some enterprising reporter
who apparently felt a need to fill out his copy (Sutton and Linn, 1976). Sutton stated that if anybody had
asked him, he could have answered: Because I enjoyed it. I loved it. I was more alive when I was inside a
bank, robbing it, than at any other time in my life. I enjoyed everything about it so much that one or two
weeks later Id be out looking for the next job. But to me the money was the chips, thats all (Sutton and
Linn, 1976). Suttons Law appears to have been an idea in search of a label.

22

In Alan Alexander Milnes story, Winnie the Pooh (1926), we are told that Pooh always liked a
little something at eleven oclock in the morning (as the clock in his house stopped at five minutes
to eleven some weeks ago and any time can be Poohs snack time), and he was very glad to see
Rabbit getting out the plates and mugs; and when Rabbit said, Honey or condensed milk with your
bread? he was so excited that he said, Both and then, so as not to seem greedy, he added, But
dont bother about the bread, please. When Pooh had finished his meal with Rabbit and started to
leave, he got stuck in the entrance to the rabbit hole as he had eaten too much condensed milk and
honey. Pooh had to be starved for a week and eventually slims up enough to get out of the hole 16.
The policy makers need to take time to think through, as greed is likely to be an unnecessary
obstruction. Just like the use of mobile money transfer in cash transfers to vulnerable populations
e.g. orphans and the elderly (Barca, Hurrell, MacAuslan, Visram and Willis, 2010), devolution is
part of the mechanics of giving people voice and promoting their enjoyment of economic and social
rights, and need to be implemented with minimum administrative costs and safeguards to minimize
perverse incentives.
While the paper is politically supportive of devolution and equality, it is critical of the credibility of
some indicators used in revenue allocation (especially population) and the concepts and technical
aspects underlying the implementation process. For example, the Constitution aims at individual
and regional equality even though the two can be at odds (World Bank, 2009). The World Bank
(2005) also argues for a concept of equity that focuses on opportunities, rather than on welfare,
utilities, or some other corresponding individual outcome. It might be useful to distinguish social
equity (across individuals) and spatial equity (across counties), since spatial disparities in economic
activity are not necessarily synonymous with living standards and social inequality e.g. along the
rural-urban divide (World Bank, 2009). There is therefore need for interdisciplinary discourse that
could include:

Domesticating egalitarian ideas of responsibility with a concern for efficiency;

A common understanding of dimensions of individual (dis)advantage, and a weighting
scheme of dimensions of deficits in entitlements and rights (Tungodden, 2008);
The fallacy of equating average potential and/or outcomes in a geographical unit as
generally representative of the population in the spatial domain; and
Locally relevant reasons behind household movements into and out of poverty and how
they differ by livelihood zones (Kenya, 2007; Kristjanson, Mango, Krishna, Radeny and
Johnson, 2010)

16

Decentralized public governance may or may not breed corruption. Localization may increase corruption
by (a) bringing officials in close contact with citizens, thus promoting personalism and reducing
professionalism (Tanzi, 1995; Prudhomme, 1995), (b) lowering effectiveness of auditing agencies and
monitoring from the center (Prudhomme, 1995), (c) increasing the number of layers in a cascading system of
bribes (Shleifer and Vishny, 1993; Treisman, 2007), and (d) capture by interest groups at the local level
(Prudhomme, 1995; Bardhan and Mookherjee, 2000). Localization may also limit opportunities for
corruption as it has the potential for greater accountability when the decision-making is closer to the people,
partly due greater probability of detection and the ability to vote out unaccountable and corrupt local leaders
(Seabright, 1996). In his review on corruption and decentralized public governance, Shah (2006) concludes
that localization offers significant potential in bringing greater accountability and responsiveness to the
public sector at the local level and reducing the incidence of grand corruption by breaking the monopoly of
power at the national level, but cautions on the need of avoiding local capture and ensuring effective
anticorruption policies and programs.

23

Figure 3: Contribution of Counties to Kenyas Land Area and Square Root of Land Area (%)

Source: Table 2

24

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