Forecasting Radiation Fog

Forecasting Radiation Fog: Print Version
http://deved.meted.ucar.edu/mesoprim/mpradfog/print.htm
Forecasting Radiation Fog

Welcome to the print version of Forecasting Radiation Fog. There is also a parallel multimedia version of this module. Note: If you are viewing this page with Netscape version 6.x, some of the animations may not display properly. To correct the problem, simply "Reload" the page. Radiation Fog is created when radiative cooling at the earth's surface cools the air near the ground to a temperature at or below its dewpoint. Fog formation is most likely when there is a shallow layer of relatively moist air near the surface with light surface winds and clear skies aloft. These conditions primarily occur during the night or early morning hours.
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Module Goal
The goal of this training module is to help you increase your understanding of how radiation fog forms, grows, and dissipates. Such understanding, in turn, can help you more efficiently and accurately evaluate the ability of a given atmospheric environment to generate and/or maintain radiation fog.
Performance Objectives
At the end of the module you should be able to do the following things: With Regard to the Preconditioning Environment: Identify key conditions and ingredients necessary for the development of radiation fog Discriminate between large-scale low-level environments that are favorable or unfavorable for development of radiation fog Describe the sequence of key surface and boundary-layer processes that prepare the low-level environment for development of radiation fog Demonstrate an understanding of how surface cooling dries the micro-boundary layer and prevents low-level condensation from being deposited onto the surface Rank various surface and surface-cover types in terms of the relative speed with which low-level air in contact with them will reach saturation With Regard to Formation: Identify levels at which radiative cooling is most active at various stages of the fog initiation and growth process Demonstrate an understanding of the effects that various condensation nuclei types and concentrations have on fog formation Sequence the key processes and events that occur during formation of a layer of radiation fog Demonstrate an understanding of how the fogtop inversion is created by the fog itself Demonstrate an understanding of influences that heat flux from the surface has on a fog layer during its initiation and growth With Regard to the Maintenance Phase: Describe key processes that balance one another to allow a fog layer to maintain a relatively constant depth Identify conditions in and above a fogtop layer that support continued condensate production Identify conditions in and above a fogtop layer that restrict further deepening Demonstrate an understanding of the effects that various condensation nuclei types and concentrations have on fog maintenance Demonstrate an understanding of the effects that introduction of an overlying cloud layer has on a mature fog layer at the surface Demonstrate an understanding of influences that heat flux from the surface has on a mature fog layer Identify the typical level of a fogtop inversion Demonstrate an understanding of how the fogtop inversion is maintained by various
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processes at and above the top of the fog layer With Regard to the Dissipation Phase: Identify key processes that contribute to the dissipation of a fog layer Apply a droplet settling rate calculation to predict the time required for a given depth of fog layer to settle to the ground in the absence of any new condensate production Demonstrate an understanding of how radiative heating contributes to dissipation of a fog layer Demonstrate an understanding of how turbulent mixing contributes to dissipation of a fog layer Demonstrate an understanding of how changes in low-level winds can contribute to dissipation of a fog layer Demonstrate an understanding of how introduction of an overlying cloud layer can contribute to dissipation of a fog layer With Regard to Detecting Fog: Identify suface observations that show atmospheric conditions conducive to radiation fog Identify soundings that show atmospheric conditions conducive to radiation fog Identify fog in satellite images Describe the limitations of infrared satellite images for detecting radiation fog With Regard to Forecasting Fog: Describe the diurnal cycle of radiation fog occurrence Demonstrate an understanding of the strong seasonal dependence of radiation fog occurrence in at least two localities Describe which forecast products best show the atmospheric conditions conducive to radiation fog Describe the limitations of numerical forecast models in predicting radiation fog
Prerequisite Knowledge
To most effectively learn from this module, you should have knowledge of basic physical processes including conduction, radiation, evaporation, condensation, deposition, sublimation, and absorption. You should also be able to read and interpret sounding diagrams in skew T-log p data format. You should also be familiar with the structure and physics of large-scale low-level anticyclones.
Radiation Fog Scenario
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Page 1: 0800 PST (1600Z) 7-Jan-99 It is the beginning of a day watch in early January, and I'm relieving the duty forecaster at the Naval Pacific Meteorology and Oceanography Detachment (NPMOD) at Lemoore, CA. Lemoore is the west-coast master jet base and lies 30 miles south of Fresno, California, in the center of the San Joaquin Valley. Things are quiet as most of the office is still recovering from the holidays.
Page 2: A quick review of the current weather situation indicates extensive fog and limited visibilities throughout the valley.
CAZ020-021-071200CENTRAL SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY-SOUTHERN SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY400 PM PST WED JAN 06 1999 .TONIGHT...LOW CLOUDS AND FOG. FOG BECOMING DENSE IN MANY AREAS
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OVERNIGHT. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S AND 30S. LIGHT WIND. .THURSDAY...FOG IN THE MORNING...DENSE IN MANY AREAS. BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S. LIGHT WIND. .THURSDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH AREAS OF DENSE FOG FORMING. LOWS IN THE 30S. .FRIDAY...AREAS OF DENSE FOG IN THE MORNING...OTHERWISE PARTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S. TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION MERCED 34 44 34 49 / FRESNO 34 48 35 50 / HANFORD 33 44 34 48 / DELANO 33 46 34 49 / BAKERSFIELD 33 48 34 50 / TAFT 32 53 33 53 / I'm not surprised since there has been only 1 day without fog in the last four weeks. This is the season of the infamous Tule Fog.
Tule Fog: Radiation fog in the California Central Valley (San Joaquin Valley to the south and Sacramento Valley to the north of the San Francisco Bay). It forms during night and morning hours in late fall and winter months following the first significant rainfall. A leading cause of weather related casualties in California. "Tule" refers to a variety of cat-tail reed that grows in the wetlands of the Central Valley.
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Page 3: A quick check of the base flight plan indicates minimal activity within the squadrons. One or two departures for Whidbey Island, WA, but no low-level runs scheduled for the ranges. Other than the normal dense fog, I expect a fairly easy afternoon. The ground is still wet from a storm a few days ago. Several inches of snow blanketed the mountains to the east and all of the Sierra ski resorts were packed over the weekend. I wish I had some time off to break in my new snowboard.
Page 4: 1530 PST (2330Z) 7-Jan-99 The fog never burned off around Lemoore, temperatures have hovered in the lower 40s, and visibilities have remained between 2-4 miles with brief periods of WOXOF (Ceiling and Visibility Zero in Fog).
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Page 5: The phone rings and it is the Duty Officer at the Helicopter Search and Rescue (SAR) squadron. Seems that a cross-country skier has failed to link up with his buddies after skiing out of bounds on the western edge of the Mammoth Mountain ski resort. The local sheriff has asked them to assist with a search in the mountains on the west side of Mammoth Mountain, where he was last seen. The SAR Duty Officer says that his helicopter does not have radar capability and will have to rely on visual approaches during the search. From his point of view, conditions are marginal for take-off. He expects that the helicopter will search until dark, but will then have to return to base. This will allow for only an hour of search if they can take off immediately. He needs a forecast for the air station for takeoff, enroute at 1500 feet altitude over the valley, then up into the mountains to the ski area at 8000 feet. He expects return and recovery at 1830 local time.
Page 6: Since I know that this calls for a mesoscale analysis, I turn once again to the COAMPS and look at the 12Z run from the morning. NOGAPS is just too coarse to determine fog patterns in the mountain regions. The COAMPS early-evening predictions for this portion of the San Joaquin Valley show persistently high low-level humidities, above 70%.
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Page 7: There is some mid-level moisture, but this was also present this morning during the fog. The forecast sounding at 00Z shows weak low-level winds and moist conditions near the ground. Aside from the shallow unstable solar-induced layer, a stable lapse rate continues to extend from near the surface to above 850 mb. All of these COAMPS plots point towards persistently foggy low-level conditions over the next few hours.
Page 8:
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Because surface observations over the valley and foothills are minimal, with only a few local ranchers submitting sporadic reports to the local TV weatherman, satellite imagery is my best source of information. The image shows the dendritic pattern of the snow cover on the mountain ridges. The western slopes appear clear, but fog is persistent below 200 m over the central valley. Dendritic: Branching, like a tree. This satellite image shows a drainage with a dendritic pattern located in South Yemen, Africa.
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Page 9: Now, what to tell the helo SAR crew? Should they take off or remain on station? Time is critical since current visibility hovers near minimums and darkness comes early this time of year. This could mean the skier would have to remain out overnight. Temperatures drop fast after dark and not many people can survive a long night exposed to the elements.
Page 10: The SAR pilot is demanding a forecast. I brief that takeoff conditions are marginal at best. Enroute at 1500 ft, they will be above the fog while flying over the valley, and there will be no significant fog or cloudiness in the mountains. The return is a different story. As temperatures drop during the short twilight period, I expect visibilities to drop below field minimums. Therefore, I can't recommend taking off in these conditions as there is nowhere for the helo to land that won't be socked in. Reluctantly, the pilot agrees and the search is delayed until first light in the morning. The skier is on his own for the night.
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Page 11: According to the COAMPS fields, I might catch a break on the following day. A weak short wave is expected to pass through in the early hours of the morning. If low-level winds increase as a result, the fog cycle might be broken. Otherwise, I have a pretty good idea of local soil temperatures and moisture based on climatologies and the persistent surface conditions. Those factors will support continuing fog. At this time we can only wait.
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Friday 0800 PST (1600Z) 8-Jan-99 Still foggy, but we might get some clearing later today. Fog started dissipating at the north end of the San Joaquin Valley as early as midnight. However, while the fog is patchy in Sacramento, here at Lemoore the fog has not diminished and visibilities remain between 1/16 and 2 miles across the Valley and into the foothills. Again, I am unable to recommend takeoff because I do not expect visibilities to improve significantly anytime soon. All I can tell the pilots is to stay tuned and check back every few hours. We're into another day of dense Tule Fog and the skier is still not located. The most difficult part of forecasting fog is assessing likelihood and timing of local improvements in visibility. As much as I'd like to help, at this time I cannot recommend that the helo join the SAR effort.
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Page 13: 1200 PST (2000Z) 8-Jan-99 The satellite shows a clearing on the west side of the Valley, coming within 20 miles of Lemoore. Partial afternoon clearing has occurred on a daily basis for several days, but the clearing today is more extensive than that on the previous several afternoons. Sacramento is in the clear, but too far away be a potential return point in the SAR effort. None of the feasible return points are out of the fog at this time.
Page 14: 1400 PST (2200Z) 8-Jan-99 This is our last chance to launch the helo. If the helo leaves now, they can have an hour on location to search with an hour travel each way. The sky has brightened since this morning, though the station is still in fog. A look at the satellite indicates that Lemoore is near the edge of fog dissipation. Will the clearing continue? Should I clear the helo? The pilot is on the phone, demanding an answer.
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Page 15: I look at the RUC. Forecast surface relative humidity values form a bulls eye at 100% over this part of the valley.
Page 16: Winds are light and expected to remain that way.
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Page 17: Looking aloft, I see subsidence at 700 mb along the west side of the Sierra Nevada. It sounds like a perfect recipe for fog. I tell the pilot that he will have to wait for morning for another chance to join the search. He leaves, clearly frustrated. Once again, fog has disrupted operations at Lemoore.
Page 18: 1600 PST 8-Jan-99 I receive word that the local search and rescue found the skier. Though suffering from frostbite and exposure, he is expected to recover.
Page 19: 0000 PST 9-Jan-99
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It turns out that we probably could have recovered the helicopter at 1700. The fog remained at bay along the west side of the valley until about 1900 PST, then quickly reformed and filled the valley by midnight. But hindsight is 20/20 and fog can be difficult to predict. We were frustrated, but felt comfortable that we had done the best job we could.
Physical Processes: Introduction

Radiation Fog is created when radiational cooling at the earth's surface lowers the temperature of the air near the ground to or below its dewpoint. Formation is best when there is a shallow surface layer of relatively moist air beneath a drier layer, clear skies, and light surface winds. This occurs primarily during the night or early morning. This section of the module describes the physical processes that lead to fog formation. An understanding of these processes will prepare you to make better forecasts, especially on the mesoscale and microscale. We have divided this presentation into 4 parts to address the life cycle of a fog event: Preconditions, Formation and Growth, Maintenance, and Dissipation.
Physical Processes: Preconditions

Introduction Radiation fog cannot form unless the necessary conditions and key ingredients coincide. When they do, radiative cooling and formation of a stable layer precede fog formation. Surface heat exchange is an important factor influencing these processes.
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Key Ingredients The key low-level ingredients required to generate a radiation fog are moisture, rapid cooling, and calm or light winds. Low-level anticyclones can create favorable conditions for radiation fog by suppressing surface winds and drying the air aloft through subsidence. Dry air aloft enhances radiative cooling at the surface.
Radiation fog is very unlikely to form unless there is sufficient moisture in the boundary layer. Such moisture may be advected into an area, or derived through daytime evaporation from surface sources such as wetlands or wet soil. Note: In some cases, enough low-level preexisting moisture may be present (e.g., from evapotranspiration) to create sufficient moisture for radiation fog.
Radiative Cooling
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After daytime heating ends, clear, dry conditions above the boundary layer hasten cooling at and near the surface. When skies are overcast, less than 10% of the radiation emitted by the earth escapes to space. Most of the radiation is absorbed and/or reflected by carbon dioxide, water vapor, and cloud droplets in overcast skies. However, clear skies allow as much as 20 to 30 percent of the radiation to escape the atmosphere. Note: Because winds create turbulent mixing, calm or light winds at the surface maximize radiative cooling.
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As the energy escapes, the ground surface cools rapidly and induces cooling of the lowest few meters of the atmosphere, creating a shallow surface-based inversion. If there is enough water vapor in the air and enough cooling at the surface, the low-level air eventually reaches saturation.
When afternoon temperatures are cool prior to nightfall, the time required to reach saturation on a clear night is shortened.
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Stable Layer Formation As cooling continues, water vapor in the air near the surface begins to condense onto objects as dew or deposits as frost. This process dries the lowest few meters of the atmosphere, while weak turbulent diffusion continues to transport moist air toward the surface.
Continued cooling in this layer causes it to become increasingly stable and resistant to the effects of weak turbulent mixing near the surface. Eventually, the near-surface turbulence ceases altogether, and with it, the formation of dew or frost at the surface. As cooling continues, excess water vapor in the saturated layer just above the surface then begins to condense into fog droplets. Note: By "turbulent mixing," here we are referring to small-scale mixing (several centimeters), not wind-induced mixing.
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Surface Heat Exchange Different surfaces cool at different rates, depending on the surface type and thermal conductivity beneath the surface. Highly conductive surfaces, such as bare soil, cool more slowly after nightfall because heat conducted upward from below the surface offsets radiative cooling at the surface. Turf has a lower conductivity than bare soil, so it cools more rapidly, allowing the air in contact with it to reach saturation more quickly.
The thermal conductivity of soil is also strongly dependent on its moisture content. Because it conducts heat more readily, wet soil does not heat up as much as dry soil during the daytime, and a significant portion of solar energy absorbed by wet soil contributes to evaporation. In addition, wet soil cools more rapidly than dry soil after daytime heating ends.
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Snow and Frozen Ground Surface snow cover is often associated with radiation fog. There are three primary reasons for this: 1. Snow absorbs much less solar radiation than other surfaces, and a portion of the energy that is absorbed is used for melting and/or sublimation. This limits heating on the afternoon prior to fog formation. 2. Snow cover also insulates the ground at night, limiting the upward flux of heat from beneath the snow. 3. Nighttime radiative cooling occurs more quickly over snow cover than over soil or vegetative surfaces. These combined effects allow the lowest few meters of atmosphere to reach saturation more rapidly over snow-covered areas after daytime heating ends. Note: If snow is melting, it also becomes a low-level moisture source for the atmosphere.
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However, the presence of snow cover can also inhibit fog formation in situations where low-level moisture is shallow. Since water vapor pressure is lower around ice crystals than around water droplets, rapid cooling can cause frost to grow at the expense of fog droplets and deplete the boundary layer of the excess moisture it needs to form fog.
Frozen ground, even without snow cover, can also favor radiation fog development. The frozen surface can effectively seal the sub-soil layer, thus limiting heat absorption during the day and hastening radiative cooling after nightfall.
Physical Processes: Formation & Growth
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Introduction During the initiation and growth phase of a radiation fog event, a fog layer forms and expands horizontally and vertically. The key processes during this phase are radiative cooling, fog layer formation, and heat flux from the surface.
Radiative Cooling Radiative cooling progresses to the point that the air just above the ground becomes supersaturated and fog droplets form by condensation. In some cases near the ocean or in polluted environments, droplet formation occurs prior to supersaturation since some hygroscopic nuclei, such as sea-salt particles, are active at saturation values below 100%. These environments are conducive to earlier fog formation.
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Fog Layer Formation During the initial stage of fog formation, cooling continues at and near the surface until the fog depth reaches several meters, deep enough to begin to absorb and reemit radiation originating from the earth. This slows the rate of cooling at the surface, and the fog top becomes the level at which radiative cooling and condensation processes are most active.
Heat Flux from the Surface Depending on the surface composition, the ground may continue to conduct heat to the surface. When it becomes warmer than the air just above it, weak low-level convective currents activate, causing the base of the near-surface inversion to rise. Note: Snow cover and frozen ground minimize heat conduction from the soil to the atmosphere.
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Meanwhile, as the fog deepens, less and less radiation is able to escape from the surface and lower portion of the fog layer. The fog blankets the lower levels, restricting radiative heat loss. In the absence of significant residual heating from the surface, the lower levels of the fog can maintain a nearly constant temperature.
However, some weak heat fluxes from warmer ground surfaces can act to evaporate fog near the ground.
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Surface Variations Variations in surface composition, including soil types, vegetation, and other factors, cause local variations in humidity and the rate of radiational cooling. As a result, the initial onset and coverage of radiation fog is patchy. Since upward heat flux from the ground reduces local relative humidity at the surface, nocturnal radiation fog formation is delayed over highly conductive surfaces, such as pavement or bare soil, and hastened over surfaces with low thermal conductivity, such as snow cover.
Physical Processes: Maintenance

Introduction During the maintenance phase, a significant fog layer maintains a relatively constant depth. This phase is characterized by a balance between opposing forces. These forces are fogtop radiative cooling, droplet settling, and fogtop mixing. Condensation nuclei concentrations, the presence or absence of overlying cloud layers, and surface heat conductivity are important factors influencing fog persistence.
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Balance Between Opposing Forces There is a temperature inversion in the vicinity of the fog top. Its base is typically located about 50 meters below the fog top. The top of the inversion is just above the fog top.
During the maintenance phase, fogtop condensation balances evaporation and droplet settling processes to maintain the depth of the fog layer. Radiative cooling at fog top replenishes the supply of droplets as they settle downward, and even tries to strengthen the inversion and deepen the fog. At the same time, turbulent mixing attempts to weaken the inversion and erode the fog top. Since winds generally increase with height, a radiation fog layer typically deepens during its growth phase until it reaches a height where the winds are strong enough and induce enough fogtop mixing to halt the growth.
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Fogtop Radiative Cooling Radiative heat loss at the cloud top enhances the relative humidity there, which supports both droplet growth and new droplet formation. Condensation at the fog top is the means by which a radiative fog maintains its depth and/or deepens. The radiative heat loss is maximized when the layer immediately above the fog is relatively dry, the winds are weak, and there are no cloud layers aloft. On a clear night, the rate of fogtop radiational heat loss is much more rapid than that in the lowest few meters of the atmosphere.
Fogtop Mixing Entrainment of dry air via turbulent mixing at the fog top evaporates droplets. This process is enhanced by the presence of vertical wind speed shear at and above the top of the fog layer.
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Condensation Nuclei Concentrations When there is a high concentration of active condensation nuclei, the fog is more likely to be comprised of a large number of small droplets, rather than a small number of large droplets. Visibility is severely degraded by high concentrations of small droplets.
The most active condensation nuclei, such as sea-salt, are hygroscopic, or "water-loving." Air pollutants can also act as condensation nuclei. Some of the densest fogs, such as the "pea soupers" of industrial-era London, are associated with high concentrations of particulates in the air. Prior to enactment of clean-air regulations, air pollution also contributed to formation of dense fogs in the Mediterranean region.
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Introduction of Overlying Cloud Layers During the daytime, introduction of mid- and upper-level cloud layers can help to maintain the radiation fog layer. These clouds reduce the solar radiation received at the ground surface, preventing warming at the surface and maintaining a higher relative humidity in the lower portions of the fog layer.
However, the lower the level of an overlying cloud layer, the more it can reduce radiative cooling and condensate production at fog top, allowing dissipative processes such as settling to take over.
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Surface Heat Conductivity The presence of wet ground or snow cover can prolong the maintenance phase of fog. Moisture content or snow cover reduces the thermal conductivity of the surface, restricting the upward heat flux from the ground during this phase.
Snow cover also reflects more solar radiation than other surface types, slowing diurnal warming after sunrise.
Physical Processes: Dissipation
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Introduction The duration of the dissipation phase, when a significant fog layer rises from the ground, thins, or vanishes, can vary due to several factors. Radiative heating both near the surface and within the fog layer combine with mechanical processes such as droplet settling and turbulent mixing at fog top to dissipate the fog. Changes in the winds and overlying cloud layers can also influence dissipation.
Duration of the Dissipation Phase During the dissipation phase of a radiation fog, the depth, areal coverage, and intensity of the fog diminish. The duration of this phase can vary from less than an hour to half a day. Typically, the dissipation phase lasts for a few hours, since most fog is relatively shallow and short-lived. Those events where fog takes longer than a day to dissipate occur in the more geographically protected areas, such as mountain valleys. The season also influences the length of this phase through such factors as sun angle, average wind speed, snow cover, ground moisture, and vegetation.
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Radiative Heating Near the Surface The main source of radiant heat is the sun. During the daytime, some radiation from the sun is absorbed by the ground, even when there is an intervening layer of fog. As the ground warms, it heats a thin skin of air in contact with the surface through conduction. This heat initiates weak convective mixing, which begins to warm the lowest portion of the fog layer.
The relative humidity in this layer begins to decrease, slowing the formation of fog droplets and eventually evaporating existing droplets. As the fog thins, the warming process accelerates, allowing more solar radiation to reach the ground. With moderately strong sunshine, the base of a fog or low cloud layer can lift at a rate of up to several hundred feet per hour.
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Radiative Heating Within the Fog Layer While the main effects of solar radiation occur through the convective mixing process, a secondary heating process can also contribute to fog dissipation. Carbon dioxide and water vapor within the fog layer absorb and reemit some of the radiation from the earth. Air warms as it absorbs the heat energy, causing its temperature to rise and relative humidity to fall.
Droplet Settling Regardless of their size, all fog droplets continually settle. The depth of a fog layer decreases when the droplet formation rate cannot keep up with the settling rate. Fog droplets vary in size, with smaller droplets settling more slowly than larger ones. An average fog droplet, which is less than 20 micrometers in diameter, will settle at the rate of 1 cm/sec. So, fog initially 30 meters (or about 100 feet) deep should settle to the ground in about an hour if the maintenance processes are removed. This would result in a rapid improvement to unrestricted visibility. In the real atmosphere, ongoing maintenance processes diminish gradually, causing a less rapid improvement in visibility.
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Fogtop Turbulent Mixing A fog layer's capping inversion is often accompanied by a layer of significant vertical wind shear. The base of the inversion is typically about 50 meters below the fog top. Turbulent mixing of warmer and drier air into the top of the fog layer can reduce relative humidity in that layer and lower the inversion. The weaker the capping inversion is, the more susceptible it is to this ongoing mixing and erosion process.
Changes in the Winds Introduction of moderate to strong low-level winds can cause fog to dissipate both at the fog top and near the surface. At the fog top, winds entrain warmer, drier air from aloft into the fog. Near the surface, winds cause mixing of the surface-warmed air with the fog above. Both promote evaporation of fog droplets and improved visibility.
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Cold advection above the fog layer can also dissipate fog by weakening the fogtop inversion, which enhances mixing processes. Note: On the other hand, advection of drier air above the fog top can enhance radiative cooling.
Overlying Cloud Layers at Night At night, loss of radiant heat is most rapid when there are no clouds above an established fog layer. If a broken or overcast layer of mid-level or a thick layer of upper-level clouds is introduced, fogtop cooling decreases because less radiation is able to escape the atmosphere. This effect can slow the rate of new droplet formation and contribute to fog dissipation.
Detecting Radiation Fog: Introduction
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In order to detect fog, we rely on a combination of Direct surface observations, Satellite observations, and Inference from vertical profiles and model fields. Satellite observations provide our best estimate of areal coverage and trends in fog cover. Satellite imagery can be especially useful at night, when direct observations are limited. Surface observations can alert us to not only fog conditions, but the conditions that lead to fog formation or dissipation, including wind speed and temperature-dewpoint spread. Vertical profiles, both observed and modeled, provide important clues to atmospheric conditions that support radiative cooling. Model fields can also fill significant gaps in limited, twice-daily rawinsonde data.
Detecting Radiation Fog: Assessing Surface Conditions

Surface Observation Patterns High-resolution satellite imagery combined with surface observations can be very useful when assessing trends in fog coverage and thickness. Even visible imagery with poorer resolution is handy. Keep in mind that low clouds on the GOES Fog Product may be just low stratus. Thus, confirmation of the existence of fog with surface observations is very important.
Example of Fog Formation
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First, let's look at fog formation. This animation of the GOES fog product with surface observations starts at dusk and continues through much of the night. This case provides an example of surface observations during the formation phase of a fog event. Focus on the surface observations over the San Joaquin Valley. As time progresses, dewpoint depressions decrease to zero or nearly zero. At the same time, fog coverage increases and visibilities within the fog decrease. Also notice that the winds in the San Joaquin Valley are calm or very light through the period, another condition favorable for fog formation.
This image shows surface observations at Fresno, located about 30 miles north of Lemoore. These observations indicate weak surface winds and a small dewpoint depression through the period, with fog observed at all of the observation times except the first one. Late in the afternoon of the 8th, at the beginning of the animation, the dewpoint depression was a bit higher, with haze observed, as some temporary dissipation of the fog had occurred due to solar warming.
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Example of Fog Dissipation
Now, let's look at an example of fog dissipation. This animation shows visible imagery overlaid with surface observations during the period 1900-2200Z (1100-1400 PST) January 7th. Initially, the fog was widespread over the San Joaquin Valley. However, note the trend of fog dissipation in the southern half of the Valley, due primarily to solar warming. Several surface observations from the same area indicate increasing temperature-dewpoint spreads and progression from fog to haze during the afternoon as the surface heating proceeds. Recall from the previous discussion in the physical processes section that fog can still exist when subsaturated conditions are observed at the surface. Of course, fog will dissipate eventually if the subsaturation is large enough and extends above the surface for some distance. Apparently, the fog was either deeper or denser in the northern part of the valley during this period, and the solar warming was effectively minimized at the surface.
Detecting Radiation Fog: Satellite Analysis of Fog
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Observing Fog in Visible Imagery With modern workstations capable of processing GOES five-channel multispectral data, it is easy to produce visible sectors capable of viewing fine-scale detail of fog. This visible image shows a morning view of the Tule Fog trapped in California's Central Valley. Notice how it conforms to the 200 m terrain contour, which is overlaid in white, suggesting that the top of the fog is about 200 m above ground level. Notice that the fog has a very smooth appearance. Contrast this to the bumpier appearance of marine stratocumulus that lies offshore.
This shows a late afternoon shot of the fog. Burnoff under the weak January solar insolation has been minimal. But notice in the southern part of the Valley that the width of the fog is less than in the morning, revealing cloud-free terrain below 200 m on either side of the Valley.
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Observing Fog at Night Winter days are short, so that daytime visible views of fog are restricted to only about nine out of twenty-four hours. It's difficult to discern the outlines of the fog in the Valley on this nighttime infrared image. The tops of the fog are not that much colder than the surrounding foothills, reducing contrast and preventing easy fog detection.
Notice, however, that the fog is outlined clearly within the Central Valley on this "fog product" image, an important tool for the operational forecaster. Notice the difference between this image and the previous IR image.
Day-Night Movies of Fog
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The nighttime fog product can be combined with daytime visible imagery to produce a twenty-four hour movie of fog evolution. In the loop, fog is always white, but at night overlying cirrus appears black. In the early evening, fog appears only in the south, but by dawn the next morning it expands northward to cover nearly the entire Valley. In this formation phase the fog tops are highest in the south, extending above the 200-meter contour. This indicates a northerly upslope flow against the mountains. By late afternoon the next day, fog dissipates especially in the south, setting the stage for reformation the following evening.
Observing Urban-Rural Differences
Usually forecasters must rely upon on surface observations to analyze rural/urban differences in
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fog severity, but occasionally these differences appear in satellite images. In the left image the city of Fresno is clear, while the mostly rural surroundings are still foggy. The right image shows clearing in urban areas and along major highways. Satellite-observed meso-gamma scale clearings occur in many other parts of the world, and the satellite tools shown, if available, would be applicable in those areas. However, high-resolution satellite data is generally not as readily available in other parts of the world.
Satellite Analysis Exercise
Imagine a hiker is lost in the lower Sierra Nevada foothills, somewhere within the green oval on the image. A helicopter is being dispatched to the location and wants to know the elevation of the top of the fog. What is the top of the fog within the oval? a) 200-400 m b) 800-1000 m c) 1000-1200 m d) 1200-1600 m e) 1600-1800 m Feedback: The correct answer is b. Notice that the edge of the fog within the oval lies between the contours labeled 800 and 1000. To the north, the fog top appears lower, as low as 600 meters.
Detecting Radiation Fog: Vertical Profile Assessment

Assessing Rawinsonde Features
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An important way to assess different phases of a fog event is to measure low-level temperature and moisture profiles via rawinsonde. Note that the changes in profiles of moisture and temperature shown here are typically occurring on very small scales, perhaps as small as a few tens of meters. These changes may or may not be evident in operational sounding displays.
Example Fog Event Between January 4th and 10th, 1999, an extended period of fog occurred in and around Medford, Oregon. Medford sits in the Rogue River Valley in southern Oregon and is subject to strong winter inversions. Twice daily rawinsonde measurements from the National Weather Service office in Medford captured the signature of the fog event and the diurnal cycle of formation and dissipation.
This figure shows the distinct diurnal nature of the fog during this event. During the seven days shown, fog typically formed shortly after sunset and dissipated about noon, after several hours of solar warming. Through this period, a strong ridge of high pressure dominated the upper levels in this region.
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This figure shows surface observations taken at Medford on January 5th. On this particular day, we can see that fog persisted until after the noon hour, then redeveloped during the late evening. Note how quickly the temperature-dewpoint difference increases during dissipation. This sounding, taken with fog present, shows the surface-based strong inversion and shallow saturated layer often associated with the formation/maintenance stage of the radiation fog. Above the saturated layer, the temperature and dewpoint quickly diverge to a difference of nearly 20 degrees C. This "goalpost-shaped" sounding is typical of many radiation fog events. Winds reported within the fog are light, at or below 5 knots.
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This sounding, taken a couple of hours before the first surface observation of fog on January 8, 1999, shows an elevated inversion persisting from the previous day's fog event, and a few degrees of dewpoint depression at the surface. This is common during the pre-conditioning phase. If you were experiencing a daily cycle of fog formation and dissipation, this sounding might lead you to expect more fog after sunset, unless some event occurred to break the fog cycle, such as the passage of a cold front.
A "goalpost-shaped" sounding indicates... a. fog is absent. b. fog is present. Feedback: The correct answer is b, fog is present. A goalpost sounding indicates saturation near the surface with dry air and clear skies aloft. Assessing Model Soundings
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Now let's look at how the fog appears in a COAMPS model simulation. We will look at Lemoore, CA in the San Joaquin Valley for the 24 hours starting at 1200Z on January 7th. Our search and rescue forecast scenario at the start of the module occurred at this time. As you will recall, the San Joaquin Valley was generally foggy during this period. Remember that the key ingredients for fog formation are abundant moisture and light winds at low levels, with clear skies aloft. We will look at the model simulation to see how well it predicted these conditions.
At the analysis time, 1200Z on January 7th, the model showed significantly undersaturated conditions at the surface, so it appears that COAMPS did not accurately analyze the foggy low-level conditions present at Lemoore. In addition, some moisture was evident around the 700 mb level. These conditions are not very conducive to fog. On the other hand, conditions favorable to fog formation include light winds (5-10 kt) in the lowest 100 mb, and stable lapse rates extending from the surface to about 800 mb.
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The 700 mb analysis revealed a weak short wave axis extending across central CA with a N-S orientation at this time, with significant moisture generally confined to the east side of the short wave. This wave was moving eastward.
Over the next 6 hours, the lowest layers moistened rapidly and stabilized to some degree, indicating that the model was apparently attempting to develop a low-level scenario better matching that of radiation fog.
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Minor solar-related surface warming occurred on the afternoon of the 7th, reducing the stability of the lowest layer.
Although fog in the center of the San Joaquin Valley did not dissipate during this time, some erosion at the fog edges did occur.
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At the same time the middle layers, from 800 to 500 mb, were drying in the model as the weak trough moved eastward during the afternoon.
The surface-based warming was quickly replaced by cooling at and near the ground after 0300Z on January 8th as nighttime radiative cooling took over. By 1200Z the lowest layers were nearly saturated and highly stable. In the mid-levels drying continued and northwesterly winds strengthened a bit behind the weak trough, although the region of stronger winds continued to be far removed from the low levels. The radiative cooling near the ground more than offset some weak mid-level cooling behind the wave.
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So, over the entire 24-hour period we see mid-level drying at 500 to 800 mb with light winds, 10 kt or less. From a forecast standpoint, the prediction of whether the fog would persist is the primary problem. In this model run, nothing would indicate conditions favorable for fog dissipation, which agrees with observations in the San Joaquin Valley over the same period. The only feature predicted by the model unfavorable for fog was the passage of a weak mid-level trough. Remember, mid-level clouds disrupt radiation and cooling, and hence, the most favorable condition aloft for fog is an anticyclone. However, since fog was already present at and before 1200Z on January 7th, it is unlikely that the trough, by itself, would have caused fog dissipation after 1200Z. Furthermore, despite the presence of this short wave, the model predicted light winds, stable layers, and moist conditions near the ground. Also, after the trough passed, the model predicted drying at 500 to 800 mb, supporting low-level cooling through radiation and fog persistence. The moisture and stable conditions at low levels present in the model forecast beyond a couple of hours were both maintained through the 24 hours, with the exception of a brief period of solar warming on the afternoon of the 7th. The model did have some problems with subsaturated initial surface conditions, but this is typical of all operational model simulations, including those of mesoscale models. Local fog events like those in the San Joaquin Valley generally occur on a scale too small for even today's operational mesoscale models. Select all of the aspects of the model soundings in the previous case that were accurately depicted.
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a. Low-level moisture b. Low-level winds c. Clear skies aloft Feedback: The model sounding never showed saturated conditions at the surface, but continued to improve through the period. The model successfully predicted light surface winds through the period. The model sounding showed moisture from a weak short wave and the subsequent drying aloft.
Forecasting Fog: Overview

There are 3 major components for forecasting fog: 1. Climatology/persistence 2. Soil moisture and cloud condensation nuclei 3. Numerical models
Persistence/Climatology Persistence and climatology are two major tools for accurately forecasting radiation fog events that have been proven in many U.S. locations. For example, Croft and others found that simple persistence was the best nowcast for locations along the Gulf of Mexico. In other words, if there is fog now, it will still be there in an hour.
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Another example of persistence is the observed data for the January 6-8, 1999 California case discussed elsewhere in this module. The local climatology for Lemoore, available from the National Climatic Data Center, shows an average of 25 days with fog reported for the months of December and January. In this case, it is very likely that your typical winter forecast will contain fog. During multiple-day events such as the January 1-10, 1999 event, animation of satellite data for multiple days can provide strong evidence that such a persistent pattern will continue to persist for at least another day unless major atmospheric changes on the synoptic scale are occurring. Remember however, radiation fog typically exhibits a diurnal cycle, forming near sunrise and dissipating within a few hours. This figure shows a peak in fog observations at 6 AM local time, with the number of fog observations falling rapidly as the day progresses. Very few observations are reported beyond noon.
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Climatology can be very useful when generally evaluating the potential for a fog event. As shown in this figure from the Climatic Atlas of the Coterminous U.S., distinct maxima for heavy fog events occur over several parts of the country, including the Pacific Northwest, San Joaquin Valley, Gulf Coast, Appalachians, and far northeast. Many of these events are forced primarily by radiative processes. Compilations of past events are particularly useful. Comparing the current situation with past events in terms of time of year, the depth of the moist layer, etc., is important for the forecaster. Note in this figure that fog occurrence peaks in September/October in Albany, NY, while fog occurrence peaks in December/January in Lemoore, CA. Just as importantly, the chance of summer fog at Lemoore is nearly nil, while the chance of winter fog at Albany is very low. These cases serve to show how important it is to know the climatology of your forecast area. When would you most likely expect radiation fog in Albany, NY? a. Dawn, January b. Dawn, October c. Dusk, January
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d. Dusk, October Feedback: The correct answer is b. Climatologically, fog almost never forms in January in Albany. Furthermore, radiation fog in Albany is observed most frequently at dawn.
Soil Moisture As discussed previously, soil moisture can play a key role in providing the low-level moisture source for radiation fog development. Obviously, a first guess at the soil moisture situation can be made with a look at the recent station precipitation records. Recent rainfall and subsequent clearing leads to wet soil and a more favorable fog development scenario. For better areal coverage, regional and national maps of radar-based, estimated liquid precipitation accumulation on a daily or weekly basis are available from the NOAA Climate Prediction Center. For example, this map shows the precipitation for October 11, 2001. Of course, recent temperatures must also be monitored to assess whether evaporation is removing significant amounts of moisture from the top soil layer.
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Cloud Condensation Nuclei If available, cloud condensation nuclei, or CCN, information can also benefit radiation fog forecasts. If the local air mass is predominantly maritime in nature, the CCN spectrum tends to be conducive to larger fog droplets and higher visibilities than that associated with a polluted, urban environment. A local knowledge of nuclei sources and sinks can be helpful even from a general, qualitative standpoint when considering an upcoming fog event. In the United States, some useful information can be obtained from the Environmental Protection Agency. Through their Air Now Web site, you can link to air pollution forecasts for many urban areas.
Forecasting Fog Dissipation The primary observational tools when forecasting the dissipation of a radiation fog event are satellite, surface, and sounding and/or profiler data. Animation of visible imagery during the day, or fog product imagery at night, can help determine trends in the horizontal fog coverage.
Multiple-day image animation can demonstrate a diurnal pattern, which can be implemented into a forecast if major synoptic-scale changes are not forecast to occur. Remember that dissipation may be temporary, as it was for this case, and fog can easily redevelop on the following night. Enhancement of low-level winds, induced by synoptic or mesoscale processes, can induce mixing and evaporation of fog. Processes such as the passage of fronts or short waves, increased horizontal pressure gradients, and cold advection aloft produce enhanced low-level mixing. This mixing dries out the air and breaks down the inversion. Middle-level cloudiness can reduce nighttime radiational cooling, which weakens the inversion and contributes to dissipation of radiation fog.
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All of these processes are readily detected in satellite, surface, and sounding/profiler data. We detect enhanced low-level winds in surface plots, soundings, or the lowest gates of profiler wind data. The signs of weakening inversions and advection of dry air appear on surface plots and soundings. Middle-level cloudiness can be observed in satellite imagery.
Forecasting Fog: Using Forecast Models

Introduction While all numerical weather prediction models, even mesoscale models, have a difficult time detecting fog, there are several useful model fields to examine when forecasting radiation fog events. These include: 1. Relative humidity at all levels 2. Low-level winds 3. Vertical velocity aloft To demonstrate the use of numerical guidance in a fog event, let's return to the early January case in the San Joaquin Valley in California.
Surface Analysis At 2200Z on January 8th, haze but not fog was observed at the reporting stations within the San Joaquin Valley. Fog from a few hours earlier had burned off, and redevelopment occurred a few hours later. Generally, upper-level ridging was dominant over the region during this time. The RUC analysis at the surface at 2200Z showed very weak winds over the area, a condition favorable for fog redevelopment.
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The analysis also showed high relative humidity values over the valley within a generally dry larger region. Recall from Physical Processes that these conditions favor fog formation In a study of radiation fog along the Gulf Coast, Croft et al. found that 1000 mb relative humidity was the best MOS predictor.
Conditions Aloft Generally, the synoptic-scale models such as the Eta and NOGAPS have a difficult time analyzing or predicting radiation fog events, due primarily to limited low-level resolution. Radiation fog is inherently a spatially limited, mesoscale phenomenon. A closer examination of the meso-Eta forecast for this time period reveals some usefulness of this model in the forecast process. The simulation used for these loops is the one initialized at 0300Z on January 8th, 1999. A look at the 18-hr meso-Eta forecast of omega for 2100Z showed strong mid-level subsidence off the Sierra Nevada range within an area of moderate northeasterly winds at 700 mb. Indeed, relative humidities at this level were 10-20% over the area of interest. The elevated terrain lies to the northeast of the San Joaquin Valley, and mid-level subsidence would probably eliminate the possibility of mid-level cloudiness at this time. Although this means more low-level solar warming during the afternoon, strong radiative cooling would take over during the late afternoon and evening hours. All of these conditions are favorable for radiation fog redevelopment and would lead the forecaster to believe that fog might quickly redevelop during the late afternoon or evening hours as solar warming decreases.
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Omega: A term used to describe vertical motion in the atmosphere. On a weather forecast chart, large negative values of omega indicate upward vertical motion in the atmosphere, while large positive values indicate subsidence. The "omega equation" used in numerical weather models is composed of two terms, the "differential vorticity advection" term and the "thickness advection" term. Put more simply, omega is determined by the amount of spin (or large-scale rotation) and warm (or cold) advection present in the atmosphere. If this upward vertical motion is strong enough and in a sufficiently moist air mass, precipitation results.
The 700 mb winds and relative humidity fields show a weak short wave quickly moving through the region in the first couple of hours, with drying and northeasterly winds taking over afterwards in the mid-levels. Mid-level drying is conducive to clearing, which enables maximum radiational cooling in the low levels.
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The vertical velocity fields initially show weak upward motion with the short wave. Shortly after that northeasterly winds and subsidence take over and dominate through 12 hours. After that, we observe weak subsidence. This subsidence at 500 mb tends to be associated with drying at 700 mb. The approach and passage of a short wave can cause increased wind speeds aloft (thus enhancing vertical mixing) and weaken the fogtop inversion directly via cold advection in the middle levels of the atmosphere. If the short wave is strong enough, it can even eliminate the inversion. In that case, clearing of the fog by the short wave is likely, as vertical mixing processes will quickly lead to evaporation. Recall that this was mentioned in the Physical Processes section as a dissipative mechanism. In the current case, the short wave was apparently not strong enough to dissipate the fog over the San Joaquin Valley.
Surface and Low-level Conditions
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The 975 mb relative humidity field clearly showed persistent high values over the San Joaquin Valley through 33 hours of simulation (ending at 1200Z on January 9th) although there is a steady decrease in the magnitude of the maximum value over the Valley.
Diurnal Variation To demonstrate the vertical structure of the humidity fields, the time-height cross section of relative humidity at Lemoore is shown for 33 hours of simulation from 0300Z on the 8th to 1200Z on the 9th of January, 1999. This roughly corresponds with the time period from dusk on the 7th to dawn on the 9th at Lemoore. Note that late on the 8th the low-level relative humidity decreases to values well below those of the previous night, which is one clue that might lead the forecaster to consider that fog would not redevelop on the night of January 8th.
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Also, as shown in this time-height cross-section of potential temperature, the predicted low-level inversion is stronger overnight January 7-8 than it is 24 hours later. In other words, the lower atmosphere is more stable overnight on Jan. 7-8. The inversion is still significant early on January 9th, it's just not as strong as 24 hours earlier and the top of the inversion is lower. If the inversion had disappeared, or was very weak, then from a model standpoint the likelihood of fog would have decreased during the early morning hours of the 9th.
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Here we see the evolution of the model temperature fields at 1000 mb. Note the distinct diurnal signature in these predictions, implying that strong surface cooling would occur late on the 8th and might lead to fog redevelopment. The coolest conditions in the valley occur at 1200Z on January 8th and 9th, while the warmest conditions are at 0000Z on January 9th. Note that the temperatures are not as cool at 1200Z on January 9th as they were 24 hours earlier, in agreement with the surface values predicted on the time-height cross-section of potential temperature.
Summary Model field indicators of fog: Relative humidity at all levels: look for high relative humidity at the surface and low relative humidity aloft Low-level winds: look for light winds at the surface Vertical velocity aloft: look for subsidence aloft Remember, the key ingredients to fog formation are high humidity and light winds at the surface with clear skies above. Look for progged forecast fields that support these conditions. Most of the example forecast fields used in this section were associated with favorable conditions for general fog persistence through 33 hours in the Valley, with the exception of surface warming during the afternoon of January 8th. Generally, small-scale, temporary dissipation of the fog by solar warming is a difficult problem even for a mesoscale model such as the meso-Eta. An example of this type of dissipation is that associated with enhanced surface heating over urban areas.
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Summary
Preconditions The key low-level ingredients required to generate a radiation fog are moisture, rapid cooling, and calm or light winds. Moisture may be: Advected into an area Derived through daytime evaporation from surface Preexisting (for example, from evapotranspiration) Low-level anticyclones can create favorable conditions for radiation fog by suppressing surface winds and drying the air aloft through subsidence. Radiative cooling is maximized when clear, dry conditions exist above the boundary layer. Calm or light winds at the surface maximize radiative cooling. Rapid surface cooling induces cooling of the lowest few meters, creating a shallow surface-based inversion. Low thermal conductivity supports rapid cooling. For example, snow and turf cool quickly; soil cools more slowly. Formation and Growth Radiative cooling progresses to the point that the air just above the ground becomes supersaturated and fog droplets form by condensation. Surface cooling continues until the fog is deep enough to begin to absorb and reemit radiation originating from the earth. Then the fog top becomes the level at which radiative cooling and condensation processes are most active. Variations in surface composition cause local variations in humidity and the rate of radiative cooling. As a result, the initial onset and coverage of radiation fog is patchy. Maintenance During the maintenance phase, fogtop condensation balances evaporation and droplet settling processes to maintain the depth of the fog layer. A radiation fog layer typically deepens until it reaches a height where the winds are strong enough and induce enough fogtop mixing to halt the growth. There is a temperature inversion in the vicinity of the fog top. Its base is typically located about 50 meters below the fog top. The top of the inversion is just above the fog top. Dissipation Radiative heating both near the surface and within the fog layer combine with mechanical processes such as droplet settling and turbulent mixing at fog top to
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dissipate the fog. Changes in the winds and overlying cloud layers can also influence dissipation. The main source of radiant heat is the sun. This heat initiates weak convective mixing, which begins to warm the lowest portion of the fog layer. The relative humidity in this layer begins to decrease, eventually evaporating existing droplets. As the fog thins, the warming process accelerates. Regardless of their size, all fog droplets continually settle. The depth of a fog layer decreases when the droplet formation rate cannot keep up with the settling rate. Turbulent mixing of warmer and drier air into the top of the fog layer can reduce relative humidity in that layer and lower the inversion. Introduction of moderate to strong low-level winds can cause fog to dissipate both at the fog top and near the surface. If a broken or overcast layer of mid-level or a thick layer of upper-level clouds is introduced, fogtop cooling decreases because less radiation is able to escape the atmosphere. Detecting Fog High-resolution satellite imagery combined with surface observations can be very useful when assessing trends in fog coverage and thickness. Things to look for include thickness, persistence, and diurnal variation. It's difficult to discern the outlines of fog in nighttime infrared images, but using the GOES Fog Product makes this possible An important way to assess different phases of a fog event is to measure low-level temperature and moisture profiles via rawinsonde. Forecasting Fog Persistence and climatology are two major tools for accurately forecasting radiation fog events that have been proven in many U.S. locations. Radiation fog typically exhibits a diurnal cycle, forming near sunrise and dissipating within a few hours. Distinct maxima for heavy fog events occur over several parts of the country, including the Pacific Northwest, San Joaquin Valley, Gulf Coast, Appalachians, and far northeast. A first guess at the soil moisture situation can be made with a look at the recent station precipitation records. Regional and national maps of radar-based, estimated liquid precipitation accumulation on a daily or weekly basis are available from the NOAA Climate Prediction Center. Enhancement of low-level winds, induced by synoptic or mesoscale processes, can induce mixing and evaporation of fog. Processes such as the passage of fronts or short waves, increased horizontal pressure gradients, and cold advection aloft
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produce enhanced low-level mixing. While numerical weather prediction models, even mesoscale models, have a difficult time detecting fog, there are several useful model fields to examine when forecasting radiation fog events. These include: Relative humidity at all levels: look for high relative humidity at the surface and low relative humidity aloft Low-level winds: look for light winds at the surface Vertical velocity aloft: look for subsidence aloft Remember, the key ingredients to fog formation are high humidity and light winds at the surface with clear skies above. Look for progged forecast fields that support these conditions. This page may be printed for future reference
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Forecasting Radiation Fog

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Forecasting Radiation Fog

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