Professional Documents
Culture Documents
Hauke L. Kite-Powell
Outline
2000 1800
LNG Consumption
about 6% of world natural gas consumption
120
100 Turkey Belgium Italy France Spain Taiwan South Korea Japan USA 20
80
60
40
0 1990
1995
2000
450 400 350 million tons/year 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 USA
1-2%
USA
pipeline LNG
92%
Asia
100% 86% 49%
27%
4%
Europe
26% 25%
Japan
South Korea
Taiwan
Spain
France
Italy
Belgium
Turkey
LNG Supply
120
100
80
60
40
20
Trinidad USA Australia Indonesia Malaysia Oman Qatar Abu Dhabi Brunei Nigeria Libya Algeria
0 1990
1995
2000
Arabian Gulf Japan, Korea, Taiwan (40%) Malaysia Japan, Korea, Taiwan Indonesia Japan, Korea, Taiwan (20%) Australia Japan (10%) US (Alaska) Japan Algeria Europe, US Nigeria Italy, Spain, France, Turkey (15%) Libya Spain Trinidad Spain, US
Atlantic basin:
gas production liquefaction plant LNG shipping receiving & regasification terminal total
4-8
3.2 6.0
19 90 19 92 19 94 19 96 19 98 20 00 20 01 .2 20 01 .4 20 01 .6 20 01 .8 20 01 .1 0 20 01 .1 2 20 02 .2 20 02 .4 20 02 .6 20 02 .8 20 02 .1 0 20 02 .1 2 20 03 .2 20 03 .4 20 03 .6 20 03 .8
Outline
LNG Consumption
300
Americas 250
200 Europe
L N G , m t/y
150
100
Europe Asia
50
Asia
2005 imports
12
under constr. shipboard regas, 2007 shipb. regas, operating under constr. 2007 startup 13
14
LNG Supply
300
250
150
100
50
18
Outline
well maintained (only 4 large LNG vessels scrapped to date), but retirements coming
22
$million, 125-150,000 m3 LNG ship 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 50 2005$ nominal 0
(Conventional LNGC)
Newbuilding Price
19 72 19 74 19 76 19 78 19 80 19 82 19 84 19 86 19 88 19 90 19 92 19 94 19 96 19 98 20 00 20 02 20 04
23
$ million (nominal)
100 150 200 250 300
90 .1 91 .1 92 .1 93 .1 94 .1 95 .1 96 .1 97 .1 98 .1 99 .1
20 00 .1 20 01 .1 20 02 .1 20 03 .1 20 04 .1 20 05 .1 20 06 .1 20 07 .1 20 08 .1 20 09 .1 20 10 .1
24
Daewoo, Korea Hyundai, Korea Samsung, Korea Kawasaki, Japan Mitsubishi, Japan Mitsui, Japan Universal, Japan Koyo Dock, Japan Hudong, China Izar, Spain Chantiers de lAtlantique, France
5 -4 3 1 -----3
8 10 9 2 3 -1 1 1 1 --
14 8 11 3 4 1 -1 2 ---
9 6 11 1 1 -1 1 2 ---
25
million m3 capacity 0.0 2004Q1 2004Q2 2004Q3 2004Q4 2005Q1 2005Q2 2005Q3 2005Q4 2006Q1 2006Q2 2006Q3 2006Q4 2007Q1 2007Q2 2007Q3 2007Q4 2008Q1 2008Q2 2008Q3 2008Q4 2009Q1 2009Q2 2009Q3 2009Q4 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5
26
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18
age
20 22 24 26 28 30 32 34 36 38
Fleet
5 outright; interests in 38 11; interests in 16 10 9 8 8 8 6 6 6 6
Orderbook
interests in 15, firm 5 firm 3 firm 1 firm
4 firm
Pertamina RasGas Petronas Adgas NWSSS Brunei LNG Gaz de France Nigeria LNG
Ras Laffan, Qatar (63% Qatar Petroleum, 25% ExxonMobil, 4% Itochu, 3% Nissho Iwai, 5% Korea Gas Corp.) Malaysias national petroleum corp.
Abu Dhabi Gas Liquefaction Limited (Das Island, Abu Dhabi), part of Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (ADNOC) Group Northwest Shelf, Australia (Woodside Energy, Shell Development, BHP Petroleum, BP Developments, Chevron Australia, Japan Australia LNG) Bruneian government and Royal Dutch Shell
Finima, Bonny Island, Nigeria (Nigerian National Petroleum Corp., Shell Gas, Elf, Agip)
Shell Tankers Golar Nippon Yusen Kaisha (NYK) Line Mitsui OSK Lines (MOL) ProNav Schiffahrtskontor (MOL affiliate) Hyundai Merchant Marine SNTM-HYPROC (Algeria)
Outline
80
70
65
60
55
50
45
40 2000-2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 projected 2007 projected 2008 projected 2009 projected 2010 projected 2011 projected 2012 projected
32
base
Outline
traditional contracts: 20-25 years, bareboat today: typically shorter (10 years and less) time charters, more flexible (that is, more risk and opportunity for owners) no commodity market (yet)
each potential fixture negotiation involves a select, small number of possible vessels rates based largely on delivered energy content cost
Outline
excess supply capacity underutilized fleet demand fluctuations and import terminal capacity
Atlantic market (US) Pacific market (Korea, Japan, India)
compartmentalized
12
10
million tons/year
8 Asia 6 Europe
US
0 1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
75% of short term fixtures have been vessels within their own contract trades (particularly on Pacific routes) most spot voyages to date on Atlantic routes, Atlantic owners
Africa, Arabia to Europe, US Trinidad to US, Europe
Outline
Traditional Asian players (Japan, Malaysia) positioning for Atlantic market, spot trade role Acquisitions
Teekay (Tapias) Golar (stake in K Line)
Greater range of vessel capacity and regas options More flexible/efficient fleet utilization
2.50
2.00
1.50
1, 00 0 2, 00 0 3, 00 0 4, 00 0 5, 00 0 6, 00 0 7, 00 0 8, 00 0 9, 00 0 10 ,0 00 50 0
Summary
LNG trade volume to grow by 80-130% to 2010
import facilities?
LNG spot market has softened; rebound not likely until 2006/07 ordering is accelerating; 2008 slots filling fast; newbuild prices firming up new entrants: acquisitions, speculative ordering shift in time charters and growing spot market are pushing LNG toward the standard bulk shipping market model within limits