EPIDEMIOLOGY and Plant Disease forecasting

Epidemiology deals with the study of disease development in population. It is essentially a study of rate of a pathogen, which determines its capacity to spread a disease in population. For the successful development of the disease in large population three factors are very essential. I.e. susceptible host, virulent pathogen, & congenial environment. If any of these three condition are not fulfilled there is will be on development of epiphytic in population Susceptible host

(Disease Triangle) For the development of epiphytic apart form above factor humen being n & time plays an important role. The humen beings are responsible for the cultivation of susceptible/resistance cultivators on a large area, which plays a significant role. The time also has significant role in development of epiphytotics. The prevalence of the congenial environment for shorter or longer duration affects the development for shorter or longer duration affects the development of epiphytotices. The prevalence of the congenial environment for shorter or longer dilatation affects the development of the disease in population. So the disease triangle can be modified into a pentagon for the study of disease development in the population.

Role of temperature humidity in diseases development : Moisture: rain dew or high moistures is predominant factor for development of epidemic, moisture not only provides new succulent & susceptible growth in the host, but more important tally, it increases spoliation in fungi & multiplication of bacteria. The presence of high moisture allows all these event to take place constantly & repeatedly. In some diseases by soil borne pathogen such as fusarium & Streptomyces, seldom develops into important epidemics. Temperature: The most common effect of temperature on epidemics is it effect on the pathogen during the different stages of pathogenesis, that is spree germination, host penetration, pathogen growth or reproduction, invasion etc. In the polycycle diseases the pathogen can complete the life cycle in short time & increase of inoculums many fold lead to development of epiphytotic. Decline of epidemic: No epidemics remains forever in a population. After development of the epidemic a stage is reached when it shows decline by itself. This is common in epiphytotic of crops plants : The cause of decline in epiphytotic of crops plants : The cause of decline in eopiphytotic is as fallows. i) The saturation of the pathogen in the host population. When disease assumes epidemic form majority of the plant got infected & further non-viability of the host reduces the spread of the pathogen, this results in production in infection. The certain plants resistant in population survive the attack of host, this one of the advantage of epidermis that it

criminates the susceptible host & only resistant individuals of the population breed & survive. ii) Decline of proneness in the host : In most of the diseases the pathogen the pathogen attack at certain stage of growth, once this stage crossed y the host the prunes due to attack of he disease is reduced and automatically there is decline in disease development, further the other climatic factors required for disease development become unfavorable for the pathogen hence no epidemic developed.
iii)

Reduction in aggressiveness of the pathogen: The invariability of the host, unfavorable climatic conditions for the disease development reduces the aggressiveness of the pathogen, hence there are decline in the disease development. Simple interest Diseases : These are the diseases which rate of

increase is mathematically analogous to simple interest in money. There is only one generation of the pathogen in the life a affected crop. The primary inoculums are seed or soil bronen secondary infection rarely occurs during the season. There is very limited chance for these diseases to development epidemic proportion. These disease are mostly root rot, Wilts smuts. Ex. Gram wilt. Compound interest disease: These are the diseases in which rate of increase is mathematically analogous to compound interest money. The pathogen under favorable condition produces Compound a large no of generation repeatedly. The spores are disseminated by rapid means such as by wind they infect other plant & produces diseases, speculate & disseminate the spore & the cycle is reputed. The incubation

period & sporulationperiod is very short. In such diseases there is chance for the development of epidemic under favorable condition. ex. Late blight of potato, Rust of wheat.

Plant diseases forecasting

inly a way in which a virulent strain may acquire virulence. One of the best documented cases is that of Tharatephorus costmaries. The plant diseases forecasting involves all the activities in ascertaining & notifying the farmers in a community that condition are sufficiently favorable for certain diseases , that application of control measures will results in economic gain, or that the amount of diseases expected is unlikely to be enough to justify the expenditure of time, energy & money for control There are the following methods whish can be utilized for the forecasting of the plant diseases . a) Survey & surveillance : In this method the repeated survey are made at a fortnightly interval to asses the infection of the pathogen or of a ` Particular diseases & by monitoring the development of pathogen through suitable warning system the messages are spread amongst the former. b) Use of climatologically Models. In this method weather records of at

place are taken not consideration for the development of forecasting models like actual temperature, moisture, light condition the microenvironment, rainfall canopy of the crop. If the particular temperature & other climatic contrition favorable for a pathogen a warming is issued to the farmer for the

management of that particular disease. Ex. In case of late blight of potato for a development of diseases the temperature of 10-250C for minimum 2 h the zoospore will infects the crop plant at around 100% RH & the fungus will rapidly develops at a temperature of 18-250 C. if suitable information system is present warring can be given to farmer about diseases development if particular temperature & humidity prevails. a) Use of computer simulation models : In the method the climatologically data (Temperature, humidity, rainfall etc) over the more than 10 year is simulated with pathological data of pathogen. (Temp & humidity for spore spore germination, infection growth of pathogen) with development of certain mathematical formula, the sensor of the temp. Humidity etc. which are attached to computer will issue the warning system for development of diseases if the particular condition of development of diseases prevails., various computer simulation models developed for warning for the diseases are as follows. EPIDEM for blight of tomato & potato caused by Alter aria soloing. MYCOS - for Mycospherell blight of chrysanthemum EPIVAN for apple scab by venture inadequacies EPICORN- for southern corn leaf blight caused by Helminathosprium BLITECAST for late blight of potato. b) By using IRS (Indian remote sensing satellite) & GOI (Globule

information system) Arial photography, by using satellite to near infrared radiation has made possible both earlier detection & sharper delineation of diseases area in crop fields (due to reduced reflection of diseases foliage tissue that are occupied

by water or pathogen cells.) The use of satellite television cloud photography had also made possible to develop bioclivativ model that can be helped for tracing the movement of pathogen form one area to another.