Illuminating the Ground - The Mood in Siaya County ahead of Elections 2013.

By Awuor Ponge Institute of Policy Analysis and Research (IPAR); and Institute of Education (IoE), University of London

30 December 2012

Presentation Outline
County Voter Statistics Comparative Registration Figures Comparative Briefs Senatorial Race Gubernatorial Race Constituency Statistics and Parliamentary Race What needs to be done
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County Voter Statistics

Constituency Name UGENYA UGUNJA ALEGO USONGA GEM BONDO RARIEDA County Assembly Ward Population (Approx.) 108,934 93,372 187,243 160,675 157,522 134,558 842,304 Estimated Voting Population 50,785 43,530 87,293 74,907 73,437 62,731 392,682 Enrollment at close of Registration on 18th December 2012 40,061 34,893 71,628 55,942 59,617 50,377 312,518 % age Enrollment at close of Registration on 18th December 2012 78.88% 80.16% 82.06% 74.68% 81.18% 80.31% 79.59%

Source: IEBC. (2012). Voter Registration Statistics

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Comparative Registration Figures

Siaya County - Constituencies Comparative Registration Figures
200,000 180,000 160,000 140,000 120,000 100,000 80,000 60,000 40,000 20,000 0 UGENYA UGUNJA ALEGO USONGA GEM BONDO RARIEDA Voter Registration Numbers

Constituency Name County Assembly Ward Population (Approx.) Estimated Voting Population Enrollment at close of Registration on 18th December 2012

Source: IEBC. (2012). Voter Registration Statistics

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Comparative Briefs
Former greater Ugenya Constituency has the highest registered voters at 74, 954 but it has since been split into two. Alego-Usonga is the single Constituency with the highest voter registration at 71, 628 Second in voter registration is Bondo with 59, 617; Third is Gem with 55, 942 Fourth is Rarieda with 50, 377 Fifth is Ugenya with 40, 061 Sixth is Ugunja with 34, 893.

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Senatorial Race
Front runner is Hon. James Aggrey Orengo Nyatieng. Hon. Oburu Odinga withdrew from the race. Orengo not likely to meet a challenge from his arch rival Steve Muwanga, after the latter opted to retry the Ugenya seat he was DENIED in Elections 2007. Orengos support for Dr. Oburu Odingas Gubernatorial race likely to cost him a substantial base of support. Orengo can bank on the support of Ugenya, Ugunja, Alego-Usonga and Gem. This is likely to be a one-horse race if Orengo leaves the Oburu campaigns alone. A likely independent candidate from the Diaspora has been touting the possibility of trying the Siaya Senatorial seat, but the mood on the ground is overwhelmingly in support of Orengo.
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Gubernatorial Race - 1
Front runner is William Oduol Denge from AlegoUsonga. Oduol enjoys the support of the populous Alego-Usonga, Gem, Ugenya and Ugunja. Facing competition from Dr. Oburu Odinga. Mood on the ground is anti-Oburu as it is perceived he is being imposed on the people. Another serious challenger is Malik Abongo Obama as an Independent Candidate. Obama is elder brother to the USA President Barrack Hussein Obama Jr. Obama likely to benefit in the event of an ODM goof in the nominations.

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Gubernatorial Race - 2
Other NOT SO SERIOUS contenders include Banker Felix Owaga Okatch from Gem. Owaga doesnt even have the Gem support. Former Gem MP, Joe Donde - Word has it that he is being prevailed upon to support his cousin, Oburu Odinga and be his running-mate. Okinda JT - Also has a very small support base from Gem only. General feeling from Gem that they also need to feature in top County positions. Lawyer Stephen Aluoch KOpot being groomed for County Assembly Speaker.
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Gubernatorial Race - 3
Internationally renown Governance Expert, Gideon Ochanda was being groomed for Deputy Governor but opted out to vie in Bondo Constituency. Maseno University Sociology Don, Dr. Nick Ogolla also being groomed as a potential Deputy Governor. The most likely winning team MUST HAVE Oduol with either Ochanda or Dr. Ogolla as running mate. Dr. Oburu Odinga is likely to appoint his cousin Hon. Joe Donde as running mate - This may be DISASTROUS for their candidacy! Oduol MUST appoint a running-mate from either Bondo or Rarieda to win.
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Ugenya Constituency - 1
County Assembly Ward Name West Ugenya Ukwala North Ugenya East Ugenya County Assembly Ward Population (Approx.) 30,325 21,270 27,081 30,258 108,934 Estimated Voting Population 14,137 9,916 12,625 14,106 50,785 Enrollment at close of Registration on 18th December 2012 11,134 8,593 9,616 10,718 40,061 % age Enrollment at close of Registration on 18th December 2012 78.76% 86.66% 76.17% 75.98% 78.88%

Source: IEBC. (2012). Voter Registration Statistics

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Ugenya Constituency - 2
Ugenya Constituency Voter Registration Statistics - December 2012
35,000 Voter Registration Numbers 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 West Ugenya Ukwala North Ugenya East Ugenya Enrollment at close of Registration on 18th December 2012 County Assembly Ward Population (Approx.) Estimated Voting Population

County Assembly Ward

Source: IEBC. (2012). Voter Registration Statistics

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Ugenya Parliamentary Race

The front-runner for the seat is Mama Mary Otieno Olute. Mama Mary boasts of massive support from the Catholic Church. Although a late comer, she has very strong grassroots support. Like in 2007, Ugenya is likely to be a free ride for the ODM candidate. Steve Muwanga is also very strong on the ground. His 2007 strong challenge to Hon. Orengo gives him leverage. Muwangas association with the Oburu campaign team is likely to cost him a substantial support base. Other contenders are Steve Kakan, David Ochieng and Ranginya. David Ochieng is unpopular because of his apparent arrogance in dealing with potential voters.
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Ugunja Constituency - 1
County Assembly Ward Name Sidindi Sigomere Ugunja County Assembly Ward Population (Approx.) 24,527 29,632 39,213 93,372 Enrollment at close of Registration on 18th December 2012 8,664 10,731 15,498 34,893

Estimated Voting Population 11,434 13,814 18,281 43,530

% age Enrollment at close of Registration on 18th December 2012 75.77% 77.68% 84.78% 80.16%

Source: IEBC. (2012). Voter Registration Statistics

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Ugunja Constituency - 2
Ugunja Constituency Voter Registration Statistics - December 2012
45,000 Voter Registration Numbers 40,000 35,000 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 Sidindi Sigomere County Assembly Ward Ugunja Enrollment at close of Registration on 18th December 2012 County Assembly Ward Population (Approx.) Estimated Voting Population

Source: IEBC. (2012). Voter Registration Statistics

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Ugunja Parliamentary Race

The front-runner for the seat is a former BAT employee, Opiyo Wandaye. Just like Ugenya, this is also likely to be a free ride for the ODM candidate. Wandaye is facing stiff competition from former KANU stalwart and former Councillor, Peter Odero. Peter Odero is very popular with the old while Wandaye boasts of youth and women support. Another contender is Otieno Aluru who appears to be fighting a losing game after being widely associated with the Oburu campaign team.
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Alego-Usonga Constituency - 1
County Assembly Ward Name Usonga West Alego Central Alego Siaya Township North Alego South East Alego County Assembly Ward Population (Approx.) 13,601 32,234 30,993 32,252 31,777 46,386 187,243 Estimated Voting Populati on 6,341 15,027 14,449 15,036 14,814 21,625 87,293 Enrollment at close of Registration on 18th December 2012 4,817 11,856 11,506 15,088 11,382 16,979 71,628 % age Enrollment at close of Registration on 18th December 2012 75.97% 78.90% 79.63% 100.35% 76.83% 78.52% 82.06%

Source: IEBC. (2012). Voter Registration Statistics

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Alego-Usonga Constituency - 2
Alego-Usonga Constituency Voter Registration Statistics - December 2012
Voter Registration Numbers 50,000 45,000 40,000 35,000 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 0

County Assembly Ward Population (Approx.) Estimated Voting Population

W es tA le go C en t ra lA le Si go ay a To w ns hi p N or th Al So eg ut o h Ea st Al eg o

Enrollment at close of Registration on 18th December 2012

U so ng a

County Assembly Ward

Source: IEBC. (2012). Voter Registration Statistics

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Alego-Usonga Parliamentary Race

Front-runner for the seat is incumbent Edwin Ochieng Yinda. No words mentioned about former MP Peter Oloo Aringo after it became apparent Orengo was favourite for Senate seat. Yinda favourite because of consolidated women support. Women comprise the bulk of voters. Potential strong challenger, Prof. Jacqueline Oduol fingers recently oiled with a PS appointment. No serious challenge for Ochieng Yinda. Another contender is Odunga Mamba, who despite having massive grassroots support is disadvantaged because of his perceived illiteracy.
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Gem Constituency - 1
County Assembly Ward Name North Gem West Gem Central Gem Yala Township East Gem South Gem County Assembly Ward Population (Approx.) 35,004 23,481 23,854 23,151 24,764 30,421 160,675 Estimated Voting Populati on 16,319 10,947 11,121 10,793 11,545 14,182 74,907 Enrollment at close of Registration on 18th December 2012 11,653 8,192 7,831 8,578 8,567 11,121 55,942 % age Enrollment at close of Registration on 18th December 2012 71.41% 74.83% 70.42% 79.48% 74.21% 78.41% 74.68%

Source: IEBC. (2012). Voter Registration Statistics

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Gem Constituency - 2
Gem Constituency Voter Registration Statistics - December 2012
40,000 Voter Registration Numbers 35,000 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 0
C en tra lG em Ya la To w ns hi p E as tG em So ut h G em em W es tG em G

County Assembly Ward Population (Approx.) Estimated Voting Population Enrollment at close of Registration on 18th December 2012

N or th

County Assembly Ward

Source: IEBC. (2012). Voter Registration Statistics

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Gem Parliamentary Race

There is no front-runner for the seat. Likely to be a hot three-horse race. Incumbent MP Hon. Washington Jakoyo Midiwo facing stiff competition from two main challengers. SDP stamping authority through its candidate Eng. Booker Ngesa Omole. Eng. Booker Omole banking on youth agenda, content and a solid Yala Division base of 65% of all registered voters in Gem. Hon. Jakoyo banking on past development record, but the ODM nomination fears may work against him. Candidates fear ODM nominations because they know it is for Jakoyo to lose. Former tough-challenger Elisha Ochieng Odhiambo not come out in the open to declare interest. Independent Candidate, Asuna Oluoch from West Gem is banking on a possible ODM nominations goof. Wagai division votes (35%) likely to be split between Hon. Jakoyo and Asuna Oluoch giving Eng. Booker a walkover in Yala Division (65%). Asuna Oluoch has a massive grassroots support and likely to beat Jakoyo even in Jakoyos hometuff of South Gem. No other serious contenders have declared interest.
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Bondo Constituency - 1
County Assembly Ward Name West Yimbo Central Sakwa South Sakwa Yimbo East West Sakwa North Sakwa County Assembly Ward Population (Approx.) 28,503 20,093 23,260 27,189 25,313 33,164 157,522 Estimated Voting Populati on 13,288 9,367 10,844 12,675 11,801 15,461 73,437 Enrollment at close of Registration on 18th December 2012 9,943 7,890 8,223 10,115 11,028 12,418 59,617 % age Enrollment at close of Registration on 18th December 2012 74.83% 84.23% 75.83% 79.80% 93.45% 80.32% 81.18%

Source: IEBC. (2012). Voter Registration Statistics

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Bondo Constituency - 2
Bondo Constituency Voter Registration Statistics - December 2012
35,000 Voter Registration Numbers 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 West Yimbo Central South Sakwa Sakwa Yimbo East West Sakwa North Sakwa Enrollment at close of Registration on 18th December 2012 County Assembly Ward Population (Approx.) Estimated Voting Population

County Assembly Ward

Source: IEBC. (2012). Voter Registration Statistics

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Bondo Parliamentary Race

The front-runner for the seat is Gideon Ochanda, though a late entrant after expressing interest in Governorship. Mama Jacinta Maganda was very strong before Ochandas entry, BUT may still turn tables. Likely to be a free ride for the ODM Candidate. Likely to be a two-horse race between Ochanda and Mama Jacinta Maganda. Former UN employee and Social Accountability Activist, Joseph Kwaka is being touted as a potential contender for the seat, although he has not come out in the open to declare interest. As a last resort, the incumbent, Hon. Oburu Odinga may opt to defend his seat, but would be really HUMILIATING. Other aspirants are Cornelius Agutu, Ouma Onyango and Steve Scot.
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Rarieda Constituency - 1
County Assembly Ward Name East Asembo West Asembo North Uyoma South Uyoma West Uyoma County Assembly Ward Population (Approx.) 32,886 33,072 21,245 19,536 27,819 134,558 Estimated Voting Populati on 15,331 15,418 9,904 9,108 12,969 62,731 Enrollment at close of Registration on 18th December 2012 12,571 12,703 7,691 6,767 10,645 50,377 % age Enrollment at close of Registration on 18th December 2012 81.99% 82.39% 77.65% 74.30% 82.08% 80.31%

Source: IEBC. (2012). Voter Registration Statistics

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Rarieda Constituency - 2
Rarieda Constituency Voter Registration Statistics - December 2012
35,000 Voter Registration Numbers 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 East Asembo West Asembo North Uyoma South Uyoma West Uyoma Enrollment at close of Registration on 18th December 2012 County Assembly Ward Population (Approx.) Estimated Voting Population

County Assembly Ward

Source: IEBC. (2012). Voter Registration Statistics

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Rarieda Parliamentary Race

The front-runner for the seat is incumbent Hon. Eng. Nicholas Gumbo. Likely to be a free ride for the ODM Candidate. Incumbent has no serious challenger. Other contenders are Fred Athuok and Agustino Neto. Agustino Neto may boast of age and youth support.
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What Needs to be Done

Racing against time - Choose credible leaders. URGENT need for social vetting of candidates. Scrutinise manifestos of candidates. Address issues rather than personalities. Vote for policies rather than party euphoria. Not allow oneself to be bought to vote in a candidate. Preach peaceful coexistence beyond the election date. Ensure free and fair nomination exercise in all the competing parties. Be tolerant of divergent opinion and allow opposing candidates to campaign freely. Come out in large numbers and VOTE on election day.

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Thank you for your attention!!!

Questions and Answer Session For further information, get in touch with: Awuor Ponge
pongeweb@yahoo.co.uk ; awuorponge@gmail.com

Mobile Telephone: +254 721 962 660

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