IEEE Transactions on Power Apparatus and Systems, v o l . PAS-94, no.

4, July/August

1975

ABSTRACT A method of forecasting the heat sensitive portion of electrical weather o d model la and demand energy and utilizing a summer is taking into account probability variation of weather factors discussed in this paper. heat The sensitive portionof the load is separated from base load and historical data is used to determine the effect of weather on t h e system l a . This method is based on od regression analysis of historical load and weatherinformation and the r establishment of system load characteristics based on historical o survey information. The method has been determined primarily for forecasting demands energy and for theintermediate range of from 3 to 10 years. However, it is applicable for monthly and annual peak forecaiting, but probably not applicable for short terms such as hour to hour or day to day forecast. It may also be helpful in long term forecasting with appropriateforecast offuture quantities of heat sensitive load on the system. Separate weather load models are used for determining theheatsensitive portion of electric energy and demand independently. These correlation studies made were when the author was located in Birmingham, Alabama and all of the studies reported here are on systems in that general area. Theauthor hopes to continue these weather-load correlation studies in the northeast area in the near future.
c

The general effect of weather on system load both demand and be determined from a few years of historical energy easily can information. One should obtain as much historical information concernins the load characteristics as practical before attempting a weather load correlation analysis. surveys, Market appliance load surveys saturation surveys, research, any load and special such as residential, commercial, concerning class of customers industrial, etc., are most helpful but not essential in theseanalyses. The sensitive heat portionof the system can load often be determined byplotting load versus timefor *e minimum load o months of the year versus the maximum l ad month during the period of the highest heat sensitiveload. This information plottedfor the demand and energyby o d classes and by load areas may be very la helpful inestablishing the best weather-load correlation. For purposes of this discussion, summer the load will be considered.Usually the month of April is thelowest month and historical trend lines should be determined for the month of April and the month of August (assuming this is the hottest month). It is helpful to plot the time scale of years using 12 divisions (monthly) per year. An example is shown in Figure 1.
I

System Load Characteristics

The effect of weather on system o d depends primarily upon la t h e load and characteristics weather of the system under consideration.Forexample, a system having a highpercentageof certain types of industrial load, which may not be heat sensitive, may be affectedvery little by weather.Eventhough a s y s t e m may be made up of a large segment of residential load, it may still be affected very little by weather if the air conditioning saturation is quite low. Some weather load models may be developed for a given systemhavingspecificcharacteristicsandwould,therefore, not be applicable to another system having different characteristics. It would appear t h a t this weather o d model should be applicable to la a wide range of different o d and la weather systems having characteristics.

Last Yeas Fig. I Summer weather effects on load (April and August)
First
The minimum month (April in this example)maybeaffected either by heating or cooling in someyears. A reviewof the daily temperature for each of the historical yearsused t o determine the trend may indicate the desirability of omitting certain years from influencing t h e trend, or by making adjustments in certain points to Compensate for heating or cooling. The air conditioning saturation during the historical period being used may be l o w enough such t h a t a few degrees above the threshoki temperature for air conditioning may be insignificant. Trendlinesshould be determined by regressionanalysis from la historical o d data for the Durposes of this analysis. Separate curves

Paper T 73 4538, recommended and approved by the IEEE Power System Engineering Committee of the IEEE Power Engineering Society for presentation at & EHV/UHV Conference, Vancouver, Can., July the IEEEPESSummerMeeting 15-20, 1973. Manuscript submitted February 15,1973;made available for printing May 10,1973.

1111

Weather Factors Used for Energy

similar to Figure 1 should be established for demand and for energy. Better accuracy may be obtained by plotting similar curves for each class of l a . The vertical ordinate "A" represents the heat sensitive od o portion of the l ad for heat sensitive month indicated (August in this example). It is important in this type of analysis to .determine od whether or not there are significant seasonal variations in l a due to vacations, seasonal production, or other causes that may affect the analysis. Such cyclic loads not caused by weather should be removed. Such variations may often be insignificant to the total system load and weathereffects. In an analysis of the weather effects on energy,better results can be obtained by separatingthe total systemenergy into classes of customers, for example, residential, commercial, industrial and other. Where historical information ofthe ctasses of loads is being used, it is important to take into account changes any in system o d or la customer classificationduring the historical study period. Energy is affected by weather conditions over a period of time. A specially defined unit of cooling degree day was developed in this load that gave good analysis together with a weather model correlation to the area studied when properly applied. An analysis of temperature variations over the higher temperature portion of the days follows a typical pattern as indicated in Figure 2.

90
85
c

2 3
80
E

Weather Data
Experience has indicated with. present technology it is not practical to obtain accurate weather forecasts even on a daily basis and certainly not on a long rangebasis of several months or years. desirable that any weather load model be Therefore it appears developed to forecast l o a d on the basis of average or normal weather conditions for a particular season of the year and indicate the variations in the o d that might be expected for other variations in la weather. These variations in weather could then be considered above or below normal. These abnormal weather conditions can be treated on a probability basis from a study of historical weather data. Historical weather data is available for most areas of the country and by making use of modern computer techniques, this data can be reduced in volume andsummarized in simpletabulationsshowing probability variations at various locations. It is extremely important in analyzing the effect of weather on load that the weather data be determined in close proximity to h e major load centers affected. t

75
7n

'"GAM
Hour Fig. 2

9 m.

Monthly avemge hourlytemperature (August 1964)

This is a plot of average hourly temperatures for each day during the h t portion of the day during the month of August for Birmingham, o Alabama. A curve of essentially the same form was obtained when hourly average temperatures were plotted for each of the months for several other areas in t h e general vicinity. Theareasunder this curvecanbe defined as cooling degree hours during the month of August and my study indicates that it is proportional to the heat sensitive portion of the energy during the been defined as month. These degree hours divided by 24 have cooling degree days. However, it should be notedthat cooling degree days determined in this manner will beappreciably different from those reported by the weather bureau which are defined differently. Further studies indicate that the curve in Figure 2 approximates that of a sine wave variation in the hourly temperature each day. By using the daily max and minimum temperatures, a sine wave concept and by establishing a thresholdtemperature for air conditioning equipment, a computerprogram was developed to calculate the CDD's both on a billing cycle month and a calendar month basis for t h e heatsensitive portion of the load. (Essentially the areaunder daily curves similar to Figure 2 summed for the month.) Twenty-year normalswere determined for CDD's from historical weather information and probability calculations were determined for the variation of CDD's from normal over a myear period. Billing Cyde
It is very important when applying a temperature l o a d model to energy that the temperature correspond insofar as practical to the time period when t h e energy was used. Best accuracy would perhaps be obtained by using hourly energyand hourly temperatures a t all majorloadcenters.However,whenanalyzingenergy (sales) taken from billing records, perhaps the most practical way to compare the temperature with the energy is to analyze the billing cycle relative to h when the energy was used and use t e temperature for the same time period, In the case studied, the residential and commercial customer

It is also important the weather data be obtained and correlated with the time that the load occurs. For example, when considering the effect of weather on energy, it is importantthat t h e meter reading cycle be taken into account (where system sales are used) to make certain that the weather timing used corresponds with the actual time of energy used (not when it was read or billed).
Certain weather factors such as temperatures can often be weighted for various areas combined and to an advantage with improved accuracyfor a larger area for the system.

Waather Factors Used for Demand

It hasbeen found by others, that various weather factors may affect demand. However, the author's study of large arms in the deep south(Alabama,Georgia, portions of Mississippiand Florida) that the maximum dry bulb temperature was by far the predominant weather factor and gave the best correlations. Although humidity is believed to be a contributing influence, it was found in several of my studies that the humidity was normally high during hot weather and could be omitted from this correlation without appreciably affecting the accuracy. After several analyses, it .was decided that the max temperature on the day of t e peak and 2 or 3 days prior to the peak h Qave the best correlation. An average of the May max dry bulb temperatures gave good correlation and w a s used in this analysis for the weather demand model. In areas where the max dry bulb summer temperatures may be lower, other weather factors may have more influence and may need to be included.

1112

meters were read on the same meter reading cycle and the large industrial customers wereread toward the end of the month on a separate reading The meter cycle. two groups analyzed were separately in this study.
is read and reportedon a billing month Since energy (sales) determination be made for basis, it is necessary that a suitable temperatures of CDD's on a billing month basis taking into account the daily temperature when the energy was used insofar as practical. This was done by developing a computer programto calculate CDD's from daily temperatures throughout cooling the months. The reading program was developed to calculate CDD's on a meter monthly basis as well as on a calendar month basis.

customers' daily energy would be used on August 20, all based on the August billing cycle. This suggests that temperature weighting factors from 1/21 on June 23, increasing to 21/21 on July 21, then decreasing to 1/21onAugust 20, could be used throughout this period for weighting thedaily temperatures (or cooling degree hours) that occur on each of theserespectivedays throughout the meter reading cyclefor the August billed energy. A computer program wasdeveloped to proportion the cooling degree days for each ofthe billing months based on suchmeter reading cycles and the cooling degree hours are determined by the continuous temperature variations day by day. This program is flexible to permit starting or stopping the meter reading cycle t any a day duringthemonth, and thereforemay be used for themeter reading cycles for different situations from those used in this study. Weekends were taken into account in the program, but not holidays. This method has not been applied where bimonthly meter reading is used, but it wouldbeexpected that the Same principle es could be applied, perhapswith l s accuracy.

The systems studied in this analysis were using a 21 cycle billing month for the residential and commercial customers with the meter For example, for reading started a t different times during the month. the last several years the meter reading cycle used in most of Alabama has started about the 23rd day of the month. A separate meter reading cycle is started about every working day for the next 30 days. For the purposes of the computer analysis of energy versus temperature, a typical meter reading cycle for this situation is illustratedinFigure 3. I t will be noted by analyzingthese typical meter reading cycles for the billing month of August that the first meterreadingcyclestarted on the23rdday of July. Successive meter reading cycles were started on each of the weekdays following July 23 with each of these readings representing approximately the prior 30 days energy use. The 21st meter reading cycle was completed on the 20th day of August and the energy read for the past 21 meter reading cycleswas is reported in s a l e s billed in the month of August. energy This information as energy for the month of August. Actually, this energy wasusedPart in August, part in July and a smaller portion in June (from June 23 to June 30).

Weather-Load Models
Since the characteristics of anygivensystemmaybe different for demand and energy, they are treated independently.Hovever, the same general weather load model was found to be applicable on the systemstested by using different constantsandweather factors in the model for energy versusthe modelfor demand. From system load research data, the system demand and energy were studied by class of customers, residential, commercial, etc. Each component was broken into base load and heat sensitive load. This may be representedmathematically as follows for a load area. D s = (Dbr + Dbc t Dbi t Dbo) + (Dhr + Dhc + Dhi t Dho) Where Ds represents the system demand; b represents the base heat sensitive demand for each class component;hrepresentsthe portion; r - residential; c - commercial; i - industrial; o - other class demand components. Eachmajor load area characteristic should be studied and combined with all other load areas to give the total system demand. The rate of growth for each of these classes of load as well as the base heat and sensitive components were found to be different. Therefore it was desirable that the characteristics for each class of load, base and heat sensitive component for each major load area be studied independently and this was done.

PI
5
>
-3

August billing cycle

I
I

7
July reading cycle

Studies of each class of load expressed as outlined for Figure 1 load gave interesting and useful correlation data. residential The correlation was found to be changing rapidly and this is described in detail later in this paper.

The commercial heat sensitive portion was found to be a fixed percentage of the baseover the past several years. The ratio varied from area to area but was in the order 40% to 60% of the base commercial demand.

Fig. 3 Typical meter reading and billing cycles (1970)

Analyzing the August meter reading cycles, one could conclude that if the residential andcommercialcustomers in all energyuse (which is strata read proportionately for all meterreadingcycles perhaps the case), 1/21 of the total residential and commercial customers' daily energy would be used on June 23, 10/21 of all these customers' daily energy would be usedon July 6 , and 1/21 of the

The industrial demand had very little heat sensitive component and it too was a fixed percentage of the baseOver the pastseveral years. Many of the areas studied were about 2% to 3% of the base demand. Energy also was found to be growing a t different rates for different load classes for the base as well as for the heatsensitive portion. These were also studiedindependently and combinedto give total system energy.

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Since the base industrial load may vary widely over the historical period due to work stoppages,andeconomic conditions - better correlation resulted when the industrial load wasremoved from the system total - treated independently and recombined. The principal variations in load due to weather effects were found to be in the residential and commercial components. Thiswill vary from system to systemdependingupon theamountof each class of l a , the od amount air of conditioning, -as well as the making up thetotal characteristics of the industrial component system load. (Some industrial loads are heat sensitive.)

A trend curve should be developed using regression analysis and plotted on semi-log paper from the survey or calculated air conditioning tonnage data, indicating tons of (AC) versus years. My studies of (AC) trends resulted in a straight line onsemi-logpaper until system saturation (very slow (AC) growth) occurred. The year scale should be divided into months for the best accuracy and when a particular month is beingstudied, the air conditioning should be selected from thetrend curve for that particular month and year. Care will have to be expressed in extrapolating this curve in future years and if the AC saturation is not too high a t the present time, it can perhaps be extrapolated as a straight line. However, for long range forecasts, the effect of saturation (slowing of growth per year) of air conditioning on the system should be forecast. Helpful information for developing this data may be available from the load research people. This weather load correlation provides a mechanism to take into account the forecast change in future air conditioning loads. It is important that this air conditioning trend curve be based on t h e most accurate historical information available.

Demand -Weather

- Load Models

The heat sensitive portion of the residential demandas indicated by "A" in Figure 1 (where it represents only the residential component), was found to be directly proportional to the quantity of air conditioning on the system and t h e maximumtemperature differences (10 year (or more) "normal") for the demand trend lines month, and the month under This study. of the minimum relationship can be expressedmathematically as follows: A = Kd T (A ,

Energy -Weather

- Load Model

- Tma) (AC)

where A is t h e ordinate betwqn the trend lines of Figure 1; Kd = a constant - KW/degr&iloton TmA = the average 3 consecutive day max temperatureduring themonth ofAugust (or othermonths under study). Tma = the average 3 consecutiye day max temperature during the month of April (or the minimum load month). AC equals the quantity (in kilotons) of air conditioning on the system for that month (August) and year. Kd may be calculated from historical information using Figure 1 and the above relationship rearranged as follows: Kd = A (A T ,

Curves similar to Figure 1 using monthly sales or monthly area energy can be developed either on a system basis including all loads but preferably by class of loadsresidential,commercial, etc. The cooling degree days as defined earlier in t h i s paper may be calculated on a meter-reading monthly basis by the use of daily temperatures as outlined under billing cycle. The same weather general load relationship developed for demand for the residentialcomponents may be used by using theresidential energycurvesdeveloped for CDD's Figure 1 for the minimum and hot months and by using instead of temperatures. This relationshipbecomes:

A '
(AC)

K, ;CDD)A
A

(CDD),]

(AC) or
(1 1

- Tma)

Ke =

:(CDD)A

It will be found that Kd is essentially constantand it is suggested that Kd be calculated eachyear for the last five years of historical information and averaged to produce an average Kdfor use in projecting future heat sensitive information.

(CDD), (AC)I

When developing K factors improved accuracy can be obtained by using the average of the actual temperatures that occurred over t h e historical load period used to determine the trend lines in Figure

where Ke = a constant = KWH/CDD-kiloton. The same air for energy as conditioning trend curve for the systemcanbeused was used for demand. Therefore, heat the sensitive portion of residential energy becomes:

1.
If a 10 year period is used, then the actual 10 year average of the 3 day temperatures max should be used for the months being t h e weather load analyzed for demand When studies. using correlation formula for future yean the actual temperatures at the time of the peaks should be used (such as was done for 196748-69, as explained later). When using the weatherloadcorrelation forprojecting loads into thefuture,the temperatures as determined from probability analysisshouldbe used to give loads on a probability basis. For example, if the temperature is used that has a probability Occurrence o of once in five years then the heat sensitive portion of the l ad will have an Occurrence of one in five years. This can be used to develop bands of l o a d for various temperatures, all on a probability basis.

E,, = Ke x CDD x (AC),

(2)

The total residential componentfor the area would be:

which becomes:

Era * Erb + [Ke x CDD x (AC),I

where Ke is determined from historical load and weatherdata as indicated in (1) above. These residential components were added to the base and heat sensitive components of other classes of load to give a total system base and heat sensitive portion of the total system energy. Computer programs were used to calculate and combine all these components and to compare with the system actual energy.

It is necessary to estimate the amount of air conditioning on the residential system and the estimated (AC)growth trend forthe period under study. Usually this information can be obtained from appliance saturation surveys or it can be estimated by a forecast of the number of residential customers and the estimated per Customer air conditioning tonnage taken from average load survey information and by manufacturers' estimated air conditioning demand or useage information.

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Era = Erb

Erh

(3)

(4)

ACCURACY Demand
it is necessary to add the In making accuracy comparisons weather sensitive portion of theload to the base load (non-heat sensitive portions - all class components) andcompare with the to determine actual total system demand or energy.Thetestused accuracy in these calculations was to base the historical information on systemdata during the period 1955-66. With Kd calculated for this period of time and using the air conditioning curves projected as a straight calculated line, demands compared were with actual demands using the actual system (average 3-day max dry bulb) temperatures for the years 1967, 1968, and 1969. Since 1967 was generally cold and 1968 was hot this should give a good test of the weather-load model. The results of these accuracy tests for demands are shown in t h e computer print-out in Figure 4, and give excellent correlation.
Max. Heat

It will be noted, the calculated monthly as well as the summer season total energies giveexcellent correlation.

The same generalprinciples can be used where energyis available on a calendar month basis; however, it is important that the CDD's used for the correlation also be determined and used on a calendar month basis instead of the monthly meter reading cycle basis. CONCLUSIONS Thismethod of weather-loadcorrelation for weathersensitive for the load gave a simple tool to givereasonablyaccurateresults determination of the effects of weather for the summer seasonal and monthly demands and energy for the systems studied. It is based on having available reasonably accurate information on the system load characteristics especially the growth trend air conditioning. of Although this test wasmade on load areaswhere humidity is normallyhighduringhightemperatures a n d where the effects of bodies of water or wind direction may not be a factor, it is quite likely that the model need may to have other weather factors included (which can be done) and to take into effect other weather factors where they may be found to affect the load. A relatively simple analysis of systemdemandandenergysuch as that shown in Figure 1 will indicate the amount of heat sensitive load on thesystem and the growth trend of it.
It should also be recognized that the necessary detailed system characteristics may not always be available or economically practical to obtain to make this particular correlation, However, in some situations estimates of system characteristicsmaybeofsufficient accuracy to give reasonablygood correlation.

X lrsr Trend
1 2 3
1

Senr Apr.

& 3 0a:nVe - kg. m

Leads 1862.3 2020.0 2191.0 2376.5 2577.7 2796.0 3032.7 3289.5 3567.9 3870.0 92.9 93.2 96.7 95.3 93.3 92.3 89.5 90.2 96.7 92.8 180.7 216.4 303.8 334.7 355.4 395.7
390.6

Pk. Cal. Pk. MY

1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969

1523.6 1630.5 1744.9 1867.2 1998.2 2138.4 2208.4 2448.9 2620.6 2804.4

1901.4

1882.0 -19.4 2035.1 19.1 2218.1 20.3 2413.3 18.8 2577.5 33.1 2771.3 -22.8 2930.3 -75.6 3197.4 77.7 3713.6 27.6 3886.8 29.8

ow. ow. -1 .o
.9 .9

Pct.

M16.0
2227.8 2394.5 2564.4 2794.1 3005.9 3119.7
3686.0

.B
1.3
-.8

6
7

-2.5 2.5 .8
.8

8 9
10

482.2 810.8 783.3

3857.0

Fig. 4

Typicalcanwterprtnt w t for calculated d m n d using Yeather loadcoorelation and actualtemperature a t the time of Peak demdnd.

Separate curves were determined for each month similar to Figure 1 and Ke was determined from historical information from 195646. The average Ke was then used with actual CDD's for the years 1967-8-9 and the energycalculated for each of the summer months by using the same system AC trend curve used in the demand correlation. These monthly energieswere totaled for the summer season and compared with the actual. The results by months and by seasons are indicated for 1967, 1968, and 1969 in Figure 5.
1967 CtlCuldted May 564.3 557.5 646.3 812.9 822.1 645.9 813.3 819.6

REFERENCES J. Davey, J.J. Saachs, G.W. Cunningham, K.W. Priest, "Practical Application of WeatherSensitiveLoadForecasting to System Planning", IEEE, PAS, Paper T-72 4788, presented a t Summer Power Meeting July 9-14, 1972. G.T. Heinemann, D.A. Nordman, Plant, and "The E.D. Relationship Between Summer Weather and Summer Loads A Regression Ana!ysis", IEEE, Paper PAS, 31 TP 6665 F W R , presented a t the Winter Power Meeting January 30-February 4,

Ctlculatcd

w
633.4 733.6 930.3 977.1

Calculated

Actual
635.0 804.7 1100.6 1103.5

595.6 635.7
725.1 911.6 960.5

Jun.
Jul.

777.1 1026.5 1106.3

1966.
James H. Latham et al., "Probability Approach to Electric 31 TP 66-73, Utility Load Forecasting", IEEE, Paper PAS, presented a t Summer Power MeetingJuly 10-15, 1966. K. Neil Stanton and P.C. Gupa, "Forecasting Annual or Seasonal Peak Demand in Electric Utility Systems", IEEE, PAS, Paper 69 TP 648-PWR, presented a t t h e SummerPowerMeetingJune

w .
Sep

135 8.
*l.Z

735.1

93) 8.

1039.9 945.1 1004.1 4647.9 4585.5

78.2 3662.3 Total

I Difference

4189.5 4176.1 -0.31

-1.35

. T r l c u l r t i o n s made using Temperature-Load m d e l r .

22-27,196!3.
S.L. Corpening, Reppen N.D. and R.J. Ringlee, "Experience with Weather Sensitive Load Models for Short and Long-Term Forecasting", IEEE, PAS, Paper T 73 1138, presented a t Winter Power Meeting January 28-February 2, 1973.
1

Discussion
Veazey M. Cook (Consultant, Scardale, New York): The importance of weather load forecasting has been steadily increasing over the last fifteen years due to thr! tremendous effect of air conditioning growth in the United States. Prior to this period, weather did have a measurable effect on load even at the time of the December peak load that occurred for a great many companies. Many papers have appeared during the last few years describing load growth prediction and the effect of weather. To do thiskindof analysis requiresthecollection of a tremendous amount of material, the analysis thereof, and the application of increasing numbers of complicated mathematical procedures involving multiple regression analysis and time series analysis. Carl Asbury, without going into all of the details of work required, has presented an up-to-date summary of the factors involved in his study of load-energy-weather correlation in the southeasternsection of the United States where the characteristics of the customers load,when divided into residential, small commercial and industrial classes, are similar for each class. It is desirable that this separation into classes be made in such a way that they can be additive to get the territory total. There are sectionsof this country where the weather is quite different in one part of the system territory as compared with some other part of the same systems territory. If each part is analyzed for its own characteristics there should be no problem in making the components additive for the entire system. This condition prevails in the northeast section of the country where there is quite variable weather for the same day and hour. Even under these conditions, I believe hourly forecasts of load might well be made for the benefit of the system control operator who, under emergency conditions,must provide formore capacity, reduce the voltage or drop customers load when necessary. A computer program might well be available to the system operator for quick action. If weather data for a long period of time, say fifty years or more, are available, then cycles of variation may be removed from the data, leaving residual variations that can be correlatedwiththe abnormal weather for individual days. This is useful for daily and hourly forecasts. When monthly peak loads and energy are analyzed, the author states very well how these data can be correlated with temperature and cooling degree days. Figure 2 of the paper shows how the CDDis derived. Quite important is the process illustrated in Figure 3 which shows how temperature and energy must be adjusted for the billing cycle. For some companies, thismay be quite a problem due to continuouschanges in meter reading practice. It should be clearly evident that much work on data preparation must be done if the weather correlations are expected to give reasonably accurate results.
Manuscript received July 31, 1973.

The percent accuracy results shown by Carl Asbury for both loads and energy prove that his method of approach and analyzation was well worth the effort. The paper is very well written and understandable.

C. E. Asbury: Mr. Cooks many years of experience as a load forecaster with a large Eastern utility certainly provides him with broad knowledge on theeffects ofweather on load. His comments, suggestions, and observations are very much appreciated by the author. Mr. Cookcomments on theseparation of load into three classes residential, commercial, and industrialand states they have similar characteristics as far as the effects of weather. This may or may not be true. My studies indicated that the effects of weather on each of these components were distinctly different. Often the industrial portion of the load may be affected very little by weather. It may also be a very large (or in some cases very mall) portion of the total load and therefore itseffect on the totalload may vary widely and it can best be treated separatelyfrom theothercomponents. My study also indicatedthe effects of weather on the commercial segment of load varied as a fixed percentage of the base load while the effects of weather on the residential load varied with the amount of heat sensitive load which could be represented by a model shown on page 4 of the paper and as derived from Fig. 1. The author agrees with Mr. Cook that the weather varies widely hour by hour as well as over a wide region. This as mentioned in the paper makes it necessary to analize the loads and weather in local areas or in reasonably sized regions to improve the accuracy of the method. The suggestion of applying the method outlined in the paper to a computer program to assist the system operator on an hour to hourbasis is excellent and probably could be done successfully after some further study and some experimenting. It would be extremely important that factors other than weather be properly taken into account in such an application. For example, the industrial load may vary widely from day to day for various reasons (economic, availability of materials, strikes, seasonal demand for products, etc.). Mr. Cook emphasized an important point that proper data preparation is important toimproving the accuracy of the results of the weather load correlation described in the paper. With the presenttrends of establishing large data banks and with the high speed digital computers presently being used this can be readily programmed and accomplished as a normal procedure.
Manuscript received February 14, 1975

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