GIS modelling for aquaculture in South-western Bangladesh: Comparative production scenarios for brackish and freshwater shrimp and

fish.
Salam, M. Abdus1 and Ross, Lindsay G2.
Institute of Aquaculture, University of Stirling, Stirling FK9 4LA ,Scotland, U.K., Phone :0044 01786 467882, Fax : 0044 01786 472133; E-mail: ahmedg@royalten.net Abstract: This study describes the delineation of appropriate sites for aquaculture using remote sensing and GIS. A 1996 composite Landsat TM image covering the south-western part of Bangladesh was used to identify water bodies, the extent of brackish water and associated land use features in the image. Remote sensing was complemented by digitised secondary data from a range of sources, including hard copy maps to produce a GIS database which included environmental layers such as water bodies, rivers, soils, land use, temperature, rain fall, salinity and pH. The database also included infrastructural issues, such as roads, railways, shrimp processing plants, towns and cities. A series of GIS models were developed in order to identify and prioritise the most suitable areas for freshwater and brackish water shrimp farming and for fish culture. A range of scenarios for land allocation were used to develop a series of resource use models linked to likely production outcomes. Such GIS modelling has great potential for optimising management of natural resources in a region where they are already under considerable pressure. The implications for use of these systems in sector planning for the region are discussed. Key words: Aquaculture, Bangladesh, Shrimp, Fish, Modelling Introduction: Aquaculture has benefited significantly from the use of Geographical Information Systems (GIS) and Remote Sensing in the recent years which jointly showed their capabilities in the evaluation and assessment of suitable sites for a variety of culture systems. A GIS can be considered as a database Management System which allows users to store, retrieve and manipulate data, integrated with a series of routines which allow sophisticated spatial analysis and display (Burrough,1986). GIS have been developed rapidly in the past decade and begun to be used for aquaculture and fisheries development studies. On a large scale, a number of sector studies have been made, for example, in the African continent (Kapetsky, 1994), on the Gulf of Nicoya, Costa Rica (Kapetsky,1987), on Johor, Malaysia (Kapetsky,1989), on Louisiana state, USA (Kapetsky et al., 1990) and on Ghana (Kapetsky et al., 1991). Species

related GIS for catfish culture was developed by Kapetsky et al., (1988), salmonid cage culture by Ross et al., (1993) and white prawn modelling by Scott et al., (1998). Until now, GIS has been applied to regional, country wide or sector studies for aquaculture, where human resources, specific site, economics, markets and socio-cultural resources were used (Kapetsky et al.,1988, Meaden and Kapetsky,1991). In this paper focus has been given on Geographical Information System to locate, inventory and compare areas suitable for brackish water shrimp, freshwater prawn and fish culture at a regional level. Materials and methods Study area The study area is located in the south-western part of Bangladesh and consists of six administrative districts which is 300 km away from the capital city Dhaka (Figure 1). The area lies between 21030' and 23015' North longitudes and 89000' and 90000 East latitudes covering an area of 14000 km2. The landscape is level to gently undulating flood plain dissected by a network of river systems. The region is made up of the old Ganges river channels which supports the Sundarbans, the largest continuous mangrove forest in the world (Viju 1995 , Giri and Shrestha 1996). Almost all cultivable land of the area is used for agriculture except for a few shrimp farms which is affected by salinity. Multiple cropping is practised and rice is the principal crop. Aus (deep water), Aman (broadcaster and transplanted) and Boro (transplanted) are the three major rice varieties (Giri and Shrestha 1996). The region is one of the most promising area for aquaculture due to two major factors. Firstly, its fresh and coastal water resources which are the most abundant in the country. Secondly, the worlds largest continuous mangrove forest is situated in the region which support a great diversity of fresh and marine water fish, crustaceans and others aquatic organisms. Culture of these fresh and marine water fish, shrimp and other crustacean species is highly important as it can be easily integrated with other activities such as agriculture and livestock rearing. Aquatic resources in the region have not been integrated with the rural economy. These resources have great potential which could be further developed to help meet the increasing demand for fish and shrimp in the areas. This can be done rationally, establishing a structured decision making and planning scheme which would play a vital role as a promoter of efficient development. Khulna region has around 104624 hectare of shrimp farm in production (DOF, 1994-95). There is also one principal research and shrimp fry and 72 fish seed production centres at Government level and 12 shrimp fry production centres in the private sector. Additionally there are 272 fish seed centres in the area in private hand. However, despite the actual aquaculture development, there is a lack of technical

assistance. The most common culture systems have minimum management, hence considered to be a subsistence activity (Khan and Hossain, 1996) Jessore Narail

Gopalganj

Khulna Bagerhat

India

Satkhira

Bangladesh India

Bay of Bengal

Figure 1 Showing the study area Southwest of Bangladesh Remotely sensed data sources The primary data source for this study is satellite imagery. Two adjacent Landsat TM satellite images were used to cover the area and these were acquired on 9 and 16 February 1996. A cloud free area of (column 3676 by 4915 rows) 18067540 pixels was subset from the original two full scene image using IDRISI for windows (version 2.0) package. This sub-scene image was geometrically rectified to the BANGTM46 grid co-ordinate system with 140 points on the 1:50000 scale map. The rectification was achieved at an accuracy of 12.26 m. Band 2, 3 and 4 were selected for use. Thematic maps Data were extracted from a range of sources. Soil texture and soil pH were extracted from soil reconnaissance survey maps prepared by the Department of Soil Survey (now known as SRDI- Soil Resources Development

Institute) during the period of 1972 to 1975. Land use, flood, storm surge and drought were taken from SRDI maps of 1997. Soil and water salinity was taken from the SRDI soil salinity report 1997 and SWMC report 1996. Roads, railways, rivers, international boundery and other topographical information were taken from maps produced by Survey Bangladesh, scale 1:50,000, prepared during 1972 and 1979. Population density, literacy, agricultural byproduct, animal waste were taken from Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics (BBS) 1996 and BBS pocket dictionary 1996. Other data were taken from different sources such as atlas, journals, periodicals and published papers Criteria for assessment: In order to determine potential sites for aquaculture, thirty environmental and economic criteria were selected and compiled (table 1). These criteria were of two types: factors and constraints. Ratings for each criterion Table 1: A summery of the criteria used for coastal and freshwater aquaculture Criteria Water temperature (Air temperature) water from annual rain fall, lakes and underground water from streams and rivers Soil texture (surface and sub surface) Local market Inputs from agriculture by products (crop yield) Waste (poultry and cattle) Roads NGO, Govt. ,Research station and university pH (soil and water) Salinity (soil and water) Cyclone, flood and draught Winter rain Pollution (industries and urban development) Land use Agglomeration Elevation Forest, towns, rivers, lakes, roads Coastal water shrimp farming Growth performance Not used Water availability Capacity for pond construction Economics Economics Economics Infrastructure Support Good growth performance Good growth performance Risk factor Risk factor Risk of contamination Available land Support Risk factor Constraints Freshwater fish and prawn farming Growth performance Water availability Water availability Capacity for pond construction Economics Economics Economics Infrastructure Support Good growth performance Limiting factors Risk factor Not risk Risk of contamination Available land Support Risk factor Constraints

were employed from 1 to 4. The next step was to establish weighting for each of the factors according to the pairwise comparison matrix of Saaty (1977). Using these weighting procedure eight sub-model were developed. Finally, three

system oriented models were generated (brackish water shrimp, freshwater prawn and fish) by using different combinations and weightings of the modules previously created. To illustrate the approach, eight sub-models were used to show the relative importance in the matrix (Table 2).

Table 2: Weighting derived by the pair-wise comparison matrix for assessing land based brackish water shrimp farming in southwestern Bangladesh (numbers show the rating of the row factor relative to the column)
Factors Land sue Infrastructure Risk Support Water chemistry Soil chemistry Inputs Water sources Sum Land use Infrastruct ure Risk Support Water chemistry Soil chemistry Inputs Water sources weightings

1 1/3 1/7 1/4 1 1 1/6 2 1 1/3 1/2 4 3 1/5 5 1 1 5 4 1 7 1 5 4 1/2 6 1 1/2 1/7 2 1 1/7 2 1 7 1

.1845 .0771 .0576 .0406 .2056 .1564 .0270 .2572 1.00

After computing the weighting procedure the MCE (multi-criteria evaluation) module was run with the submodels to find out potential sites for shrimp, fish and prawn separately. Once the MCE suitability maps had been created, it was necessary to determine which cells belonged to fish and prawn as well as suitability classes. The IDRISI module RANK was used to rank the cells for fish and prawn suitable sites. In assessing site considerations it was considered important to evaluate land allocation for freshwater prawn and fish culture activities which are competing for the same land. A cross tabulation was carried out (using the CROSSTAB module) to find out the correlation coefficient level between two activities. Moreover, both activities were considered as areas of conflict due to their claim for the same land. To resolve these problems, the multi objective land allocation (MOLA) module was used. Weights for each activity were set the same to give them equal emphasis. Results:

Most suitable sites are found near coastal areas beside the rivers and tidal canals for shrimp culture where soils and topography are suitable and tidal water is abundant (Figure 2). Furthermore, when comparing suitability maps of shrimp culture before and after combining the risk factors, far more suitable areas are found when risk factors were not considered (Figure 3). However, suitable sites for freshwater prawn lie upstream beside the lakes, canals and rivers (Figure 4) and fish culture areas are found North and Northeast beyond the saline belt (Figure 5). Overall, relatively vast areas offer good economic prospect for fish farming in that a high availability of good market occur together. This is particularly the case where population density is high and where the inhabitants in the area consume high proportions of fish. Likewise, a Figure 2: Suitable area for brackish water shrimp culture, risk factors included

few areas were shown to be unsuitable for fish culture due to salinity effects. Furthermore, suitable sites are located far away from the source of pollution. Figure 6 shows the allocation of lands for fish and prawn culture by the GIS model using the MOLA technique. A comparison was made which defined the land suitable for the two activities as being established adjacent to each other. A trade off was then made between the proximity of one to the other for the possible integration of aquaculture culture with some types of agriculture (i.e. rice culture).

Figure 3: Suitable area for brackish water shrimp culture, risk factors excluded

Figure 4: Suitable area for fresh water prawn culture

Figure 5: Suitable area for fresh water fish culture

Figure 6: Suitable area for fish and fresh water prawn culture after using MOLA technique

Discussion: The results of this GIS evaluation are partly matched with the existing shrimp farms in the areas predicted by the GIS as suitable. Comparison has been made with the satellite image and published data. GIS predicted 113180 hectares of land suitable for shrimp farming, whilst DOF (1996) has shown 104624 hectares are in operation in the area. However, there was a variation among the locations possibly due to weighting and compilation of different factors. As shown in figure 2 and figure 3 most of the brackish water shrimp farms are located along the rivers and tidal canals, which differ with the farm seen in the image. Although, some farms are located beyond the saline water extremity which may be favours by the other factors. Much of the areas ranked most suitable for brackish water shrimp culture, are situated near the riverbank in the tidal zone. This is due to easy excess of saline water. However, most of the areas were ranked as moderately suitable because of lack of other facilities and getting water and draining them out. Large water bodies, which contain fresh water were not considered due to lack of salinity. Natural forest and wild life refuges, Sundarban, roads, rivers and urban areas were not considered for culture activities. There are ample areas which were ranked moderately suitable but which are not yet under culture. Agriculture has not been affected by the brackish water shrimp culture, the traditional sources of income, in addition to some new sources of income have been created by shrimp culture in the region. However, there have drastic reduction of livestock and poultry in the shrimp farming areas. (Rahman, et al., 1995; Khan and Hossain, 1992). Only one crop of shrimp can be cultured as the salinity of water falls to nil in the month of July-December which is suitable time for rice production and fresh water prawn and fish culture. (Rahman, et al., 1995). Conclusion: The results of this study are indicative of the modelling power of GIS for this application and could be used to refine the models in future, particularly if supported by field verification work. It is important that a detailed study can be made of the availability of crop by products, especially oil cake, rice bran, wheat bran and other products which could be used as low cost feed and their known availability could greatly enhance aquaculture development opportunities in the area. There is considerable potential for further exploitation of GIS for optimisation of competing aquatic production activities and their interaction with land based farming systems. The GIS planning process has an important role, particularly where land use patterns are intensive, as in most parts of Bangladesh.

Biography
1

Staff member at Faculty of Fisheries, Bangladesh Agricultural University, Bangladesh and Research Scholar in

the Institute of Aquaculture, University of Stirling, working in the field of Coastal Aquaculture and GIS. Presently involved in developing Model for Coastal Aquaculture, Land use and Mangrove vegetation classification in Southwestern Bangladesh using GIS and Remote Sensing.
2

Head of GIS and Applied Physiology group and Dean of the Faculty of Natural Science.

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