2012 10 15

SAC SAC
S0080511030009
S0080511030011

xuxq@cicc.com.cn

chenjh@cicc.com.cn

SAC
S0080511080002

liumx@cicc.com.cn

M2
9 M2 3 6 M1 M2
M2
M2 14% M2
(M2 -)
M2
M2
M1 9 M2 08 11 M1
M2 M1 M2
M1
M1/M2

QE3

QE3

3-7

2012 10 15

1: M1 M2
16

M1

M2
M2

14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
11-09

11-11

12-01

12-03

12-05

12-07

12-09

CEIC

M2

M2 14%
M2 9
6232 0.2
16.3% 3700

9 ( 12
2) 9

() M2 14%
8 27 M2
14%

2:
300

250
200
150
100
50
0
-50
11-09

11-11

12-01

12-03

12-05

12-07

12-09

CEIC

3:
5000

9 M2 3 6
M1 M2
4 M2

9 M2 1.3
14.8% 0.4

M1 M1
M2 9 M1 2.8
M2( 1)

4000
3000
2000

M2

(M2 -)
9
2868
1277
5281 2600

2169
2163 ( 3)

8.5 3
6000
M2

1000
0
-1000
-2000
-3000
12-01

12-02

12-03

12-04

12-05

CEIC

12-06

12-07

12-08

12-09

M2

M2

09

09 PMI 50

2012 10 15

4: PMI
7000

()

65

PMI()

6000
60

5000
4000

55

3000
50

2000
1000

45

0
-1000

40

-2000
35
-3000
07-01 07-08 08-03 08-10 09-05 09-12 10-07 11-02 11-09 12-04

CEIC

5: M1 M2 CPI
15

M1-M2()

CPI()

10
8

10

6
5
4
0
2

( 4)
M1 9 M2
08 11 M1 M2
( 5)
M1 M2
M1

9 M0 3200
2000
M1-M0
6.3%
M0 M1 ( 6) M0 M1

M1 6 M1 M2
7
M1/M2 M1
M2 30% 6
08-09
M1 M2
09 M1/M2 09
33%

-5
0
-10

-2
-4

-15
06-01

06-10

07-07

08-04

09-01

09-10

10-07

11-04

12-01

CEIC

6: M0M1 M1-M0
16

M0

M1

(M1-M0)

14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
11-09

11-11

12-01

12-03

12-05

12-07

12-09

CEIC

2012 10 15

7:
9000

8000

3240 1700
1540
6500 8040 7
6
9

3000

7000
6000
5000
4000
3000
2000
1000
0
12-06

12-07

12-07

12-08

12-08

12-09

12-09

12-10

PBoC

8:
6.36

6.35
6.34
6.33
6.32
6.31
6.30
6.29
6.28

11 12 1000
11

11-12

6.27
6.26
09-04 09-06 09-10 09-12 09-14 09-18 09-20 09-24 09-26 09-28 10-09 10-11

Bloomberg

9:
2.0

()

-6

()
1.5

-4

1.0

-2

0.5

0.0

-0.5

-1.0

-1.5

8
10-01

10-05

10-09

11-01

11-05

11-09

Bloomberg

12-01

12-05

12-09

QE3

9
6.33-6.35 ,

1.3%
6.26-6.27( 8)

8 9 QE3
9

( 9)

1%
CNY

2012 10 15

10:
300

250
200
150
100
50
0
-50
-100
10-03 10-06 10-09 10-12 11-03 11-06 11-09 11-12 12-03 12-06

CEIC

11: CNY CNH

4

CNY 1NDF
CNH 1DF

%
3
2
1
0
-1
-2

-3
11-01 11-03 11-05 11-07 11-09 11-11 12-01 12-03 12-05 12-07 12-09

Bloomberg

12: 1
6

0
10-01

10-05

10-09

11-01

11-05

Reuters

11-09

12-01

12-05

12-09

9
9 17 QE3

( 10)
8 1400
300 9 12
( 2)

CNY
CNH
( 11)

Libor QE3

1 4.2% 1.2%
( 12) 1 Shibor

CCS
( 13)

QE3
QE3
QE QE

2012 10 15

13: Shibor 1
CCS
3.5

1Shibor1
1CNY CCS

3.0

QE3

2.5

2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
-0.5
-1.0
-1.5
-2.0
11-01

11-04

11-07

11-10

12-01

12-04

12-07

12-10

ReutersBloomberg

14: 1

1(1,)
4.0

()

1.2
1.0
0.8

3.5

0.6
0.4

3.0

0.2
0.0
2.5

-0.2
-0.4

2.0

-0.6
-0.8

1.5
12-05

-1.0
12-06

12-07

12-08

12-09

12-10

Wind

15: M2 10-1
2.5

bp

10-1()

M2()

35
30

2.0
25
1.5

20
15

1.0

14
4

7
3%

3-7
M2 ( 15)

3-5 7 50-60bp
7 30-40bp10 20-30bp 4
3-7
10 5-15bp( 16)

( 20
7
)
9

( 17)

10
0.5
5
0.0

0
05-05

06-02

06-11

07-08

08-05

09-02

09-11

10-08

11-05

Wind

2012 10 15

16: 4
30

bp

21
20
12

12

10
1

0
-2
-10

-4

-7

-8
-11

-12

-14

-20

-25

-30

-28

-40
1Y

3Y

5Y

7Y

10Y

15Y

20Y

17:
50

40

30

20

10

-10
11-01

11-04

11-07

11-10

12-01

12-04

12-07

2012 10 15

1:

28D

7D
()

91D

3M

1Y

7D

28D

1770

1000

()

1770

-2200

(%)

2.7

2.75

3.05

3.16

3.48

3.35

3.45

(bps)

(bps)

-5

-5

-5

-11

YTD (bps)

(:,-,+)

-3300

-3240
0
-2200 -2350 -1320 -1350

-3270

-1600

-1050

-1340

-1400

-1870

30

1640

1150

1010

-80

-520

PBOC

2:

10329

1153

20

-5

34256

5959

1142

-942

SHIBOR

1D
7D
7D
O/N
1W
2W
1M
3M
6M
9M
1Y
1D
7D
14D
21D
1M
3M
6M
9M
1Y
3Y

(%)
2.08
2.72
3.19
2.42
3.17
3.60
3.59
3.70
4.09
4.26
4.40
2.41
3.18
3.61
3.57
3.57
2.85
2.85
2.85
2.87
2.87

(bp)
-193
191
15
-5
35
7
-37
2
0
0
0
-7
15
7
-28
-49
-10
-10
-15
-13
0

(bp)
-33
-24
-31
-18
-26
29
-27
6
0
-1
0
-20
-25
25
21
-43
0
0
5
-13
0

YTD(bp)
203
245
-317
-98
-241
-245
-240
-177
-134
-98
-84
-260
-315
-288
-262
-241
-59
-60
-61
-61
-59

Reuters

3:

1238~42(2)
1216()

()

2012-10-9
2012-10-10

2012-10-17
2012-10-17

40+60*2+70*2
266.7

1219
1217
1216
1207

2012-10-17
2012-10-17
2012-10-17
2012-10-19

2012-10-24
2012-10-31
2012-10-29
2012-10-26

260
150
120
150

()

135710 3.44%~4.30%
7
3.42%

1
7
3
0.25

2012 10 15

4:

()

()

1.1

-1.8

2,891.8
4,689.9

916.5
-915.1

3,687
6,235

-629
-864

0
0

0
0

5:

(%)

(bp)

(bp)

YTD(bp)

2.70

-3

-35

3.28

(%) (bp) (bp)

-2

12

YTD(bp)
-27

3.04

-1

-8

-26

3.78

3.18

-7

-32

3.88

-2

-4

-2

3.41

-4

-29

4.10

-4

10

3.47

-2

-38

10

4.18

-1

-2

15

3.75

15

-28

15

4.38

10

-2

20

4.08

-7

20

4.68

23

18

Reuters

6:
SHIBOR

(%)

(bp)

(bp)

YTD(bp)

3M
6M
9M
1Y
3Y
5Y
7Y
10Y

3.47
3.37
3.29
3.24
3.22
3.25
3.39
3.45

16
7
5
2
-11
-28
-8
-8

4
2
4
4
3
5
5
5

7
13
36
44
52
38
47
48

1Y
2Y
3Y
4Y
5Y
7Y
10Y

(%) (bp) (bp)

Reuters

3.53
3.47
3.41
3.41
3.43
3.54
3.58

-4
-7
-12
-14
-12
-12
-12

6
9
8
8
9
9
9

YTD(bp)
-67
-28
-21
-17
-10
-1
-2

2012 10 15

()/
, 36 /

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