Professional Documents
Culture Documents
Confectionery Market
June 9, 2008
NCA Goals
Represent confectionery as an enjoyable food Significant source of candy category information Inhibit and reduce federal, state and international legislative and regulatory requirements Recognize new scientific and advancing technologies, meet the candy industry needs for training and education Grow the confectionery category
www.candyusa.com
Register as industry member Resource Guide New Industry Research Results IRI data Manufacturer Shipment Data Industry Reviews Seasonal Holiday performance Export development programs
Eastern Europe, Asia and Africa will grow faster High oil and energy prices Fears of global inflation Fear of global recession Commodity prices higher Slower growth
Retail Sales $141 Billion $77 Billion $44 Billion $20 Billion
Manf. Sales $93 Billion $51 Billion $29 Billion $13 Billion
Euromonitor Estimates
Billions
$120.8
$128.8
$136.4 $141.2
$98.3
$109.4
12.0
12.1
12.6
13.0
13.4
13.8
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
Euromonitor
$ Billions
$75 $100 $125 $150 $175 $174.3
+21.0% +43.6%
$141.2
+29.9% +35.8%
+69.4% +39.0%
$65.2
$82.7
$128.1
$61.5
$30,000
North America
$20,000
Asia Pacific
$10,000
Latin America
Eastern Europe
Australasia
2005 2006 2007
5,000
4,000
Western Europe
North America
3,000
Asia Pacific
2,000
Eastern Europe
1,000
Latin America
Middle East and Africa
Australasia
0 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
26.2%
25.4%
20.7%
15.5%
14.5%
7.5%
7.3%
Eastern Europe
Latin America
Australasia
Western Europe
North America
571.8
Thousands of Tons
404.0
280.0
267.4
214.8
138.2
27.1
51% of tonnage growth has come from Asia Pacific and Eastern Europe.
Euromonitor
$3
$6
$9
$12
$15
$18
$21
$24
$27
$29.4
$30
Countries
Germany Russia Japan China Brazil France Italy Mexico Canada Australia Spain Poland Turkey Argentina Ukraine Netherlands Sweden
Switzerland $1.5
C ountries
18
10
10.1 8.9
12
7.7 5.5 5.5 4.3 4.2 2.9 1.9 1.7 1.4 1.0 1.0 1.0 0.9 0.7
Cadbury Wrigley Obiedinenye Leaf Perfetti Van Melle Ferrero Lindt & Sprngli Nestl Orkla Haribo Ritter Storck Arcor Cloetta Fazer Meiji Lotte Morinaga Mars Kraft Hershey
2007 $ Sales $2,006 $1,734 $1,622 $1,471 $769 $723 $558 $541 $487 $487 $460 $438 $351 $365 $333 $330 $326 $321 $279 $272
2007 % Growth +3.5% +20.6% +13.5% +20.4% +10.4% +10.2% +17.5% +42.2% +12.8% +13.5% +14.9% +13.0% +24.0% +19.4% +32.2% +14.4% +35.1% +31.6% +18.1% +0.7%
World
Canada Mexico South Korea Japan Australia Philippines United Kingdom Hong Kong Singapore Colombia Taiwan Peru China Panama UAE
* Global Trade Atlas
$1,004,788,079
$446,710,332 $137,901,651 $49,090,151 $28,724,733 $24,055,499 $23,264,222 $21,385,698 $19,895,650 $16,257,498 $15,280,295 $15,078,029 $10,968,139 $10,692,742 $10,353,915 $10,241,649
267,734
125,469 45,461 11,262 6,512 5,185 4,896 4,635 4,437 3,804 4,217 3,808 1,984 2,528 1,990 2,674
+14.2%
+6.7% +16.7% +11.5% +7.2% +32.7% +16.8% -12.2% +32.6% +44.5% +57.7% +49.6% +38.8% -5.8% +51.3% -6.6%
$24.0
$24.4
$25.8
7.0
6.7
7.1
7.3
7.6
7.7
7.7
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006 2007
Department of Commerce Data is released in late summer. Please return in August for actual 2007 data.
2006- US Dept of Commerce 311 D Report
GUM 11%
Retail Confectionery
Market Share by Trade Channel
Warehouse Clubs* 7.6% Drug Stores 8.6% Bulk 5.4% Vending 4.2% Dollar Stores* 2.9% Others 24.9%
Supermarkets 15.3%
*estimates
* * Others include: department stores, food service and ingredient sales, fundraising, give-aways, independent grocers, mail order/internet, military, specialty/candy stores, theaters and concessions
NCA 2007 estimates based on IRI, U.S. Department of Commerce, MSA Vending Data, NCA Shipment Report and other industry sources.
The confectionery retail market has grown across all trade channels but convenience stores, club stores, dollar stores and chain drug stores have outpaced the overall retail market.
* Indicates NCA estimate
Source: NCA estimates based on input from Information Resources, Inc. NCA/CMA Monthly Shipment Reports and U.S. Department of Commerce. Sales Figures in billions
Are we in a recession?
Leading Chains
Percent Change in Weekly Sales Per Unit
10.0 9.0 8.0 7.0 6.0 5.0 4.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 0.0 -1.0 -2.0 -3.0 -4.0 -5.0 -6.0 -7.0 -8.0 -9.0 -10.0
2002
Thanksgiving
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
9/11/01
Weeks of Year
Source: The NPD Groups SalesTrac service; Based on actual sales reported from 45 chains
$0.0
Carbonated Beverages Milk
$3.0
$6.0
$9.0
$12.0
-1.1% +14.9%
$15.0
$13.40
$12.90
Product Categories
Candy& Gum Salty Snacks Cereal Ice Cream Soup Cookies Bottled Juice -1.2% +1.1% -1.9% +1.4%
$4.50
$4.10
$4.00
+2.4%
+2.7%
$6.40
$8.60
$8.00
Unit Sales Beverage -5.5% Milk Candy Salty Cereal Soup Cookies -3.4% -3.0% -2.5% +0.9% -3.3% -4.9% -4.0%
+1.9% $3.80
Juice
$2.0
$4.0
$6.0
$8.0
+2.4%
$8.6
$8.0
Unit Sales Candy Salty
$10.0
Product Categories
Salty Snacks Ice Cream Cookies Snack/Granola Bars Bakery Snacks Dry Fruit Misc. Snacks +7.7%
$1.0
$2.3
+5.1%
+2.7% -0.7%
$4.5
-1.9% $4.0
$0.5
-4.0% +18.7%
$0.3
Manufacturers Sales January - December, 2007 $ +3.8% +2.3% +5.8% Lbs. Even -0.9% +0.5%
Ferrero Session
About NCA Global Confectionery Performance USA Confectionery Performance Seasonal Performance Trends New NCA Research Findings
NCA estimates based on December 30, 2007 IRI Data, NCA Manufacturers Shipment Reports and U.S. Department of Commerce MA311D Report
Holiday Dates/Days
Holiday
Valentines Easter Halloween Christmas
Thanksgiving Shopping Days
2007
Wednesday 4/8 Wednesday Tuesday 11/22 33
2008
Thursday 3/23 Friday Thursday 11/27 28
Indicates neutral date for holiday sales
2009
Saturday 4/12 Saturday Friday 11/26 29
2010
Sunday 4/4 Sunday Saturday 11/25 30
Indicates negative date for holiday sales
Results and Projection as of January 2008 Source: Sales figures are compiled by National Confectioners Association based on input from Information Resources, Inc. NCA/CMA Monthly Shipment Reports and U.S. Department of Commerce
2007
+6.7% +5.4% +2.6% +2.2%
2006
+0.1% +7.0% +2.8% +1.0%
2005
-4.0% -7.6% +2.3% +2.4% +2.4%
2004
-3.0% +5.5% +2.4% -3.5%
2003
-7.6%
2002
+6.5%
* IRI FD&M
Breakfast 28%
Lunch 27%
Snacks 19%
Source: The NPD Group's National Eating Trends and CREST Services
Supper 26%
Morning 32%
Afternoon 30%
Evening 38%
Source: The NPD Groups National Eating Trends service
Morning Snacks
Evening Snacks
29.3 29.6
2007
10. Chips
Candy Bars
Percent of Age Group Eating Candy Bars in Two Weeks
30 2005-2007 1990-1992 Percent Eating At Least Once in Two Weeks
25
20
15
10
0
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30 32 34 36 38 40 42 44 46 48 50 52 54 56 58 60 62 64 66 68 70
Age of Eater
Source: The NPD Groups National Eating Trends Data
20
15
10
0
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30 32 34 36 38 40 42 44 46 48 50 52 54 56 58 60 62 64 66 68 70
Age of Eater
Source: The NPD Groups National Eating Trends Data
20
15
10
0
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30 32 34 36 38 40 42 44 46 48 50 52 54 56 58 60 62 64 66 68 70
Age of Eater
Source: The NPD Groups National Eating Trends Data
15
10
Goldfish
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30 32 34 36 38 40 42 44 46 48 50 52 54 56 58 60 62 64 66 68 70
Age of Eater
Source: The NPD Groups National Eating Trends Data
24.5% 21.4% 21.4% 20.1% 18.3% 16.5% 15.0% 13.9% 11.6% 9.8% 11.5% 11.5% 13.9% 14.3% 13.4% 15.1%
2003
May Aug '03 Nov '03 '03
2004
Feb '04 May Aug '04 Nov '04 '04
2005
Feb '05 May Aug '05 Nov '05 '05
2006
2007
Feb '07
Trends - What's
for 2007/2008
Exotic chocolate flavorings: citrus, spice, salt, fruits High cocoa content chocolates Gourmet chocolate bars Gourmet packaging for chocolates Single origin chocolates Urban names for upscale chocolates
Trends - What's
for 2007/08
Sugar Free gum - +13.5% sales Exotic fusion flavors Fortified products Theater Box candies Event merchandising theaters, birthday, game nights Single-serve seasonal items New seasonal offerings
Whats important:
1. New we like to try new things but dont mistake this for a trend! The top 25 new items in chocolate, non-chocolate and gum generated 10% of total sales in 2007. 2. Taste this takes generations to change! but it is changing! 3. Convenience we have always moved to making our lives easier!... remember, easier not easy 4. Value Weve never let food costs rise faster than our incomes!
Changes we will see in the next five years: Continued consolidation Growth in global business Blurring of Snacks and Confections More Customization packs for individual retailers More Secondary Merchandising Speed to Shelf coordination more important Continued loss of center store Labeling will become more important
Changes we will see in the next five years: Price Blending less differential in key sizes Product Quality more important to consumers More Premium section will grow
Must have quality product and matching packaging
Distinction between luxury and premium Healthier options Growth in organic confections More functional products More portion control options
Purchasing
Purchasing Consumption
Consumption
weeks
weeks
Consumption at fixed rate Soap, Detergent, Toilet Paper Promotion Loads Pantry
27%
Confectionery
Grocery Average
31
30 22 16 15 12 11 7
136
101
76
Low Performance
-2.4%
$15.57
$13.91
Low Performance
$6.10
+35%
Current Performance
Potential Performance
Aisle Management
20
40
60
80
100
Good
47 40
Fair/Poor
10 10 27
20
40
60
80
100
What10 Improvements? 20 30
39 33 28 24 20 19 15 13 13
40
50
More Variety Cost Savings More Gourmet More Imported More Fresh Better Quality More Health Info Better Organized More Ethnic
Grocery
27
78
Supercenters Mass Merchandisers Drug Stores Convenience Stores Dollar Stores Warehouse Clubs
17 18 25 15 15 15 14 13 10 11 10
2005 2000
60% 37%
All Retailers
Top Performers
Others
12% 8 12 6 4 42% 7 9 6 36%
Grocery
Drug
Mass
Top performing retailers devote more space & generate more Candy sales
Source: DHC Analysis of Retailer Data
250-350 Items
Retailers Risk Lost Sales If They Dont Stock Candy Items Consumers Want
If you were shopping & could not locate the particular product you wanted to buy, which would you do?
Buy Another Flavor/Variety
27%
25%
12%
9%
16%
Walk away
Go To Another Store
11%
22.4%
Buy Another Variety of Brand
Go To Another Store
Retailers risk lost purchases if they dont carry a variety of Christmas Candy
169%
Cookies
105%
Carb. Beverages
95%
Bottled Water
95%
Salty Snacks
88%
Wine
68%
Spices/Seasoning
61%
Beer
49%
1 or 2
4 or More