NORTHSIDE

JOBS & INCOME

NorthSide: Jobs & Income

Summary
An analysis of the 2010 American Community Survey data reports that the NorthSide area has a higher unemployment rate and a lower percentage of the sixteen or older population in the labor force than either St. Louis City, the St. Louis metropolitan area, or Missouri. The high concentration of residents with a less than high school education attainment and the lack of transportation options available to the 47% of households that do not own a vehicle may be contributing factors in this high unemployment rate and low labor force participation. The NorthSide area population has a median income that is about half of St. Louis Citys, 40% of Missouris, and one-third of the St. Louis metropolitan areas. Additionally, the NorthSide populations median income has grown at a slower pace since 1970 than any of the three areas of comparison. This low median income is also indicative of the extreme poverty in the area as the NorthSide areas proportion of residents with incomes below the federal poverty level is nearly twice as high as St. Louis Citys, more than three times as high as Missouris, and four times the proportion of the St. Louis metropolitan areas. The NorthSide areas jobs, economy, and income can best be described through an analysis of its unemployment rate, the jobs of its residents, its residents median incomes, and the poverty level of the area. Unemployment When analyzing the economic productivity of an areas population, one key indicator is the unemployment rate; this rate is the percentage of the unemployed relative to the number of people in the labor force. Each year, the U.S. Census Bureau asks households whether they are employed, unemployed, or not in the labor force. Table 1 contains the total population sixteen years or older, the percentage of that population that is in the labor force, and the unemployment rate for the NorthSide area, St.

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Table 1: 2010 Employment and Unemployment

Area NorthSide STL City STL Metro Missouri Population 16+ 10,772 256,198 1,562,728 4,664,019 In Labor Force 48.8% 65.9% 67.9% 65.2% Unemployed 21.3% 12.6% 7.8% 7.4%

American Community Survey, 5-year Estimates

The Unemployment Rate The Bureau of Labor Statistics divides the population into three categories: employed, unemployed, and not in the labor force. Employed- People with jobs Unemployed- People who are jobless, looking for jobs, and available for work Not in the Labor Force- People who are neither employed nor unemployed Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Info taken verbatim from website

Louis City, the St. Louis Metropolitan Area, and Missouri for 2010. The unemployment rate in the NorthSide area is 1.7X the rate of the city and almost 3X the rate of either the St. Louis metropolitan area or Missouri. However, one of the more interesting aspects of the data is the percentage of the population sixteen or older

that is in the labor force. While this percentage ranged from 65-68% for the three areas of comparison, the NorthSides percentage was less than 50%. Many NorthSide residents may have given up looking for a job and dropped out of the labor force; if these residents were in the labor force, the unemployment rate may have been much higher.

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Table 2: Labor Force and Unemployment for Ages 25-64 with Less than a High School Education
Population 25-64 without HS Education 1,981 27,535 92,686 336,893

Area NorthSide STL City STL Metro Missouri

In Labor Force 48.0% 55.3% 59.7% 58.0%

Unemployed 30.7% 21.2% 14.4% 13.2%

Source: American Community Survey 2010, 5-year Estimates

One of the contributing factors for the extreme unemployment in the area is the education attainment of the NorthSide population. Table 2 compares the unemployment rates for those ages 25-64 with less than a high school education of the NorthSide area, St. Louis City, the St. Louis metropolitan area, and Missouri. Of the nearly 2000 residents in the NorthSide who are between the ages of 25 and 64 and who have a less than a high school education, more than half (52%) are not in the labor force; of those who are in the labor force, nearly one-third (31%) are unemployed. The unemployment rate is much higher for those that have less than a high school education in the three areas of comparison as well. This information indicates that the overall education attainment of the NorthSide residents is likely in`luencing the unemployment rate in the area.

Occupations The more than 4,000 NorthSide residents that do have a job work in the occupations and proportions listed in Table 3; the proportions for St. Louis City, the St. Louis metropolitan area, and Missouri are listed as well. More than 40% of the employed NorthSide residents work in the service industry, a much higher percentage compared to the three other comparison areas. The NorthSide area has a signi`icantly smaller share of jobs in the management, business, and `inancial category, the computer engineering, and science category, the education, legal, community service, arts and media category, and the health care practitioners and technical occupations category than St. Louis City, the St. Louis metropolitan area, and Missouri.

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Table 3: Occupations
Occupations Management, Business, and Financial Computer, Engineering, and Science Education, Legal, Community Service, Arts, and Media Health Care Practitioners and Technical Service Sales and Of`ice Natural Resources, Construction, and Maintenance Occupations Production, Transportation, and Material Moving NorthSide 6.8% 1.9% STL City 11.2% 5.2% STL Metro 15.4% 6.1% Missouri 13.6% 4.3%

6.7%

12.5%

10.6%

9.9%

1.9% 41.4% 22.8% 6.0%

6.0% 23.8% 23.8% 6.2%%

6.2% 16.5% 26.7% 7.8%

5.7% 17.0% 25.9% 9.8%

12.5%

11.3%

10.8%

13.8%

Source: American Community Survey 2010, 5-year Estimates

Of the approximate 1,700 NorthSide residents who work in service occupations, 55% work in either food preparation and service occupations or the building and grounds cleaning or maintenance occupations. Of the approximate 950 NorthSide residents who work in sales and of`ice occupations, more than 62% work in administrative support

occupations and the remaining 38% work in sales occupations. Journey to Work The NorthSide residents must have a means of getting to these jobs. Of the approximate 4,000 area residents that are employed, about 29% of them do not have a vehicle available to

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get to work. Of these 1,200 residents, about half rely on public transportation to get to and from work, about 18% walk, about 16% either borrow a car or carpool with others, and the rest either work at home or utilize taxis, bicycles, or some other means of transportation. The NorthSide residents lack of access to a vehicle may contribute to the unemployment and lack of participation in the labor force as described earlier in this analysis. With 47% of all NorthSide households lacking a motor vehicle, it may be dif`icult for them to arrange transportation to and from work, which further compounds their dif`iculties in `inding and maintaining employment. Income

and Missouri in the 1970, 1980, 1990, and 2000 censuses as well as the 2010 American Community Survey. In 2010, the NorthSide areas median income was 3.83X what it was in 1970; in comparison, St. Louis Citys median income was 4.11X, the St. Louis metropolitan area was 5.11X, and Missouris median income is 5.19X what it was in 1970. This shows that the disadvantages that the NorthSide area faced in 1970 have only gotten worse. Graph 1 shows this data in a line graph. The NorthSide areas line on the graph is not as steep as the other areas lines, indicating that median income has grown at a slower pace than St. Louis City, the St. Louis metropolitan area, and Missouri. Poverty

Table 4 shows how the NorthSide median income has compared to the median income in St. Louis City, the St. Louis metropolitan area,

This income information is indicative of the extreme poverty in the area. Table 5 shows

Table 4: Median Income 1970-2010

Area NorthSide STL City STL Metro Missouri

1970 $4,715 $8,182 $10,691 $8,914

1980 $8,237 $11,511 $18,879 $15,581

1990 $10,348 $19,458 $32,708 $26,362

2000 $16,958 $27,156 $45,623 $37,934

2010 $18,065 $33,652 $54,646 $46,262

Sources: Neighborhood Change Database, U.S. Decennial Censuses 1970-2000, and American Community Survey 2010, 5-year Estimates

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Graph 1: Median Income 1970-2010

the percentage of residents whose incomes are below the poverty line. The percentage of NorthSide residents that are below the poverty level is about 46%, which is nearly twice the number that are

below the poverty level in St. Louis City, more than 4X the proportion below the poverty level in the St. Louis metropolitan area, and about 3.3X the proportion of those below the poverty level in Missouri.

Table 5: 2010 Poverty

Area NorthSide STL City STL Metro Missouri Source: American Community Survey 2010, 5-year Estimates Proportion of Population Below Poverty Level 45.7% 26.0% 11.4% 13.9%

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Summary
An analysis of the 2010 American Community Survey data reports that the NorthSide area has a higher unemployment rate and a lower percentage of the sixteen or older population in the labor force than either St. Louis City, the St. Louis metropolitan area, or Missouri. The high concentration of residents with a less than high school education attainment and the lack of transportation options available to the 47% of households that do not own a vehicle may be contributing factors in this high unemployment rate and low labor force participation. The NorthSide area population has a median income that is about half of St. Louis Citys, 40% of Missouris, and one-third of the St. Louis metropolitan areas. Additionally, the NorthSide populations median income has grown at a slower pace since 1970 than any of the three areas of comparison. This low median income is also indicative of the extreme poverty in the area as the NorthSide areas proportion of residents with incomes below the federal poverty level is nearly twice as high as St. Louis Citys, more than three times as high as Missouris, and four times the proportion of the St. Louis metropolitan areas.

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Data, Sources, and Area

Relying on census data from 1970-2010, Missouri Wonk can show how the demographics of the population have changed for the NorthSide area6. The area of focus in this analysis is the geographic region encompassed by census tracts 1115, 1201, 1202, 1203, 1212, 1213, 1214, 1257 and 1266 of the 2000 census and census tracts 1115, 1202, 1212, 1257, 1266, 1271, and 1275 of the 2010 census. The area covered by these tracts is nearly identical, however, between 2000 and 2010, the Bureau of the Census consolidated tracts 1201 and 1203 into a new tract, 1271, and collapsed tracts 1213 and 1214 into a new tract, 1275. The 2000 census tracts rely on information contained in the Neighborhood Change Database, which was developed by: Geolytics, Inc., a private company that specializes in current and historic census data; The Urban Institute, a research organization that stems from a recommendation of a 1960s blue-ribbon commission appointed by President Lyndon Johnson (Urban Institute); and The Rockefeller Foundation, a philanthropic organization which supports work that expands opportunity and strengthens resilience to social, economic, health and environmental challenges, which provided part of the funding for the initiative (Rockefeller Foundation). The Neighborhood Change Database allows for historical analysis of a speci`ic area as speci`ic as the census tract level. While the U.S. Bureau of the Census changes its census tract boundaries to accommodate changes in population, the database holds census tract boundaries steady over time; this allows for an apples-to-apples comparison of the same region across the 1970, 1980, 1990, and 2000 decennial censuses. At the time of this writing, the 2010 census tracts and boundaries have not been incorporated into the database; however, aside from the consolidation of the tracts mentioned previously, there was only one difference in the total area of the study and none of material distinction.7

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Figure 1: NorthSide Area in Context of St. Louis City

Source: Map produced with Geolytics software, ACS 2006-2010 Interface. Note: The area shown highlighted in red stripes designates the NorthSide Area.

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Figure 2: NorthSide Area 2000 Census Tracts

1202

1115

1201

1203 1266

1212 1213 1257 1214

Source: Map produced with Geolytics software using the Neighborhood Change Database 2000 Note: Numbers denote census tracts as used by the United States Bureau of the Census

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Figure 3: NorthSide Area 2010 Census Tracts

1202

1115

1271 1266

1212

1275

1257

Source: Map produced with Geolytics software, ACS 2006-2010 Interface. Note: Numbers above denote census tract numbers used by United States Bureau of the Census.

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References
American Community Survey (ACS) 2010. United States Bureau of the Census. Information obtained from Geolytics, Inc. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Labor Force Statistics from the Current Population Survey. Retrieved from the world wide web on December 2, 2012 from http://www.bls.gov/cps/ cps_htgm.htm#concepts. Neighborhood Change Database. Geolytics, Inc. 2010. U.S. Bureau of the Census. 1970, 1980, 1990, and 2000 Censuses. Information obtained from Geolytics, Inc.

ABOUT MISSOURI WONK

Missouri Wonk is a rm founded by Brian Schmidt that performs policy analysis services for businesses, trade associations non-prots, campaigns, and government entities.
ABOUT BRIAN SCHMIDT

Brian Schmidt served as the Executive Director of the Missouri General Assemblys Joint Committee on Tax Policy from 2005 through 2011. He received a Bachelor of Political Science degree at Truman State University and a Master of Public Affairs- Public Policy degree at the University of MissouriColumbia.

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