Midterm Exam Due 10/03/08 ABE 6986 Ramin Shamshiri UFID # 90213353 Consider the discrete logistic model

given by = 1 = (1 ) +1 = + with = 0 = 0.1000 at = 0

1. Complete the table below for each time step . Carry out sufficient number of steps to establish the pattern for each case.
Table 1: Dependence of on for different step sizes for the discrete logistic model.

= .

= . 0.0 1.0 2.0 0.1 0.0 1.5 3.0

= . 0.1 0.0 2.2 4.4

= . 0.1 0.0 2.5 5.0

= . 0.1

= . 0.0 2.55 5.1 0.1

0.0 0.5 1.0

0.1

Solution to problem 1: Results are given in Table 1, page 4 to 5.The values of +1 for each time step is calculated through the below procedures and for 100 steps to reliably establish the pattern for each case. Pattern can be seen from these values for each case. +1 = + = (1 ) (1) & (2) : +1 = + [ (1 ) ] = . +1 = + [ 1 0.5] 1 = 0 + [0 1 0 0.5] = 0.1 + 0.1 1 0.1 0.5 = 0.145 (1) (2) (3)

Ramin Shamshiri

ABE 6986, MIDTERM EXAM

Due 10/03/08

2 = 1 + [1 1 1 0.5] = 0.145 + 0.145 1 0.145 0.5 = 0.2069875 3 = 2 + [2 1 2 0.5] = 0.2069875 + 0.2069875 1 0.2069875 0.5 = 0.289059337 . . . = . +1 = + [ 1 1.0] 1 = 0 + [0 1 0 1.0] = 0.1 + 0.1 1 0.1 1.0 = 0.19 2 = 1 + [1 1 1 1.0] = 0.19 + 0.19 1 0.19 1.0 = 0.3439 3 = 2 + [2 1 2 1.0] = 0.3439 + 0.3439 1 0.3439 1.0 = 0.56953279 . . . = . +1 = + [ 1 1.5] 1 = 0 + [0 1 0 1.5] = 0.1 + 0.1 1 0.1 1.5 = 0.235 2 = 1 + [1 1 1 1.5] = 0.235 + 0.235 1 0.2355 1.5 = 0.5046625 3 = 2 + [2 1 2 1.5] = 0.5046625 + 0.5046625 1 0.5046625 1.5 = 0.879629891640625 . . .

Ramin Shamshiri

ABE 6986, MIDTERM EXAM

Due 10/03/08

 = . +1 = + [ 1 2.2] 1 = 0 + [0 1 0 2.2] = 0.1 + 0.1 1 0.1 2.2 = 0.298 2 = 1 + [1 1 1 2.2] = 0.298 + 0.298 1 0.298 2.2 = 0.7582312 3 = 2 + [2 1 2 0.5] = 0.7582312 + 0.7582312 1 0.7582312 2.2 = 1.16152782416243 . . . = . +1 = + [ 1 2.5] 1 = 0 + [0 1 0 2.5] = 0.1 + 0.1 1 0.1 2.5 = 0.325 2 = 1 + [1 1 1 2.5] = 0.325 + 0.325 1 0.325 2.5 = 0.8734375 3 = 2 + [2 1 2 2.5] = 0.8734375 + 0.8734375 1 0.8734375 2.5 = 1.14979858398437 . . . = . +1 = + [ 1 2.55] 1 = 0 + [0 1 0 2.55] = 0.1 + 0.1 1 0.1 2.55 = 0.3295 2 = 1 + [1 1 1 2.55] = 0.3295 + 0.3295 1 0.3295 2.55 = 0.8928708625 3 = 2 + [2 1 2 0.5] = 0.8928708625 + 0.8928708625 1 0.8928708625 2.55 = 1.13678470026619 .

Ramin Shamshiri

ABE 6986, MIDTERM EXAM

Due 10/03/08

2. Discuss the results for each case. a. Does the response oscillate? b. Does the response converge to a single value? c. Does the response alternate between multiple values? If so, what the values? d. Is the behavior chaotic (non repeating pattern) for any case? Answer: For the first case ( = . ), the response value starts from 0.145 at n=1 and grows up such that after 9 steps it becomes close to one, (equal to 0.910485605457614) which shows a convergence behavior. This pattern can be confidently stated when after 57 steps when the value of response exactly becomes 1. After this step, the response value remains on 1 and does not change. Since the pattern does not repeat, the behavior can be considered chaotic (Non-repeating pattern). Figure 1.

Figure 1: Response behavior for the first case; ( = 0.5).

Ramin Shamshiri

ABE 6986, MIDTERM EXAM

Due 10/03/08

For the second case ( = . ), the response value starts from 0.19 at n=1 and grows up very fast. After just 8 steps, the response value becomes very close to one, (exactly equal to 0.999999999998068). In the 9th step, the response value becomes exactly one and does not change any more. The response behavior for this case is also convergence to a single value which is one. The response behavior for this case can also be considered chaotic since the pattern does not repeat. Figure 2.

Figure 2: Response behavior for the first case; (=1.0).

For the third case ( = . ), the response value starts from 0.235 at n=1 and overshoot to one at n=4, then shows a short oscillation around 1but becomes stable again. For this case, the response also converges to one (although not very exactly) however it showed a very short oscillation. The behavior may also be considered chaotic because the pattern does not repeat in this case too. Figure 3.

Ramin Shamshiri

ABE 6986, MIDTERM EXAM

Due 10/03/08

Figure 3: Response behavior for the first case; (=1.5).

In the 4th case, ( = . ), the response value starts from 0.298 at n=1 and in just two steps overshot to 1.16, then in the next step it becomes 0.748 and then becomes 1.16 again. This pattern remains in the next steps as well. In this case, the response does not converge, but it oscillate between two values, 1.1628 and 0.7462. The response does not alternate between multiple values, it just oscillate between two values. The behavior is not chaotic, because the pattern is just oscillating (period two). Figure 4.

Figure 4: Response behavior for the first case; (=2.2).

Ramin Shamshiri

ABE 6986, MIDTERM EXAM

Due 10/03/08

In the 5th cases, ( = 2.5), the response oscillate between four values (does not converge). Yes the response alternate between multiple values (four values) which are 1.157, 0.7012, 1.22, and 0.535. In this case, the behavior is not chaotic. It is just alternating periodically (period 4). Figure 5.

Figure 5: Response behavior for the first case; (=2.5).

In the 5th cases, ( = 2.55), the response oscillate between four values (does not converge). Yes the response alternate between multiple values (eight values) which are 1.1523, 0.7047, 1.2353, 0.4939, 1.1313, 0.7523, 1.2274, 0.5154. In this case, the behavior is not chaotic. It is just alternating periodically (period 8). Figure 6.

Ramin Shamshiri

ABE 6986, MIDTERM EXAM

Due 10/03/08

Figure 6: Response behavior for the first case; (=2.55).

3. What does this procedure illustrate about the logistic differential equation? Answer:

First of all, it should be noted that = 1 is the discrete dimensionless form of Verhulst-Pearl population model. It models real situation for population growth in which population cannot increase indefinitely due to limitations. The procedure +1 = + (, ) shows that the model is a function of . For the value of = 0.5 = 1.0 the response showed convergence behavior. For = 1.5 a slight displacement from the stationary state showed up, however it leaded to convergence (stable) behavior again. Chaotic behavior started to show up for values of > 1.5 and caused the response to diverge. It is interesting to note that for = 2.2 the response is oscillating between two values but for = 2.5 and = 2.55 it is oscillating between four and eight values respectively. In fact, for a certain value of , chaotic behavior will appear where there is not a repeating cycle.

Ramin Shamshiri

ABE 6986, MIDTERM EXAM

Due 10/03/08