Commodities Evening Update

Tuesday | January 22, 2013

International Commodities

Content
Days overview Market Highlights Outlook Important Events for Today

Overview:

Research Team
Nalini Rao - Sr. Research Analyst nalini.rao@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn. 6135 Anish Vyas - Research Analyst anish.vyas@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn. 6104

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Commodities Evening Update

Tuesday | January 22, 2013

International Commodities
News and Analysis German ZEW Economic Sentiment rose to 2 year high to 31.5 levels. UKs CBI Industrial Order Expectations fell to -20 levels in January. Euro area ZEW Economic Sentiment rose to 31.2 levels in January. UK Public Sector Net Borrowing declined to 13.2B in December. European markets are trading on a weak note on speculation that Deutsche Bank (DBK) AG might reduce its profit guidance. Investors were also awaiting US home sales data to be released in the later part of the evening today. Asian markets ended on a mixed note and US futures are trading in the green. Spot gold prices increased by 0.1 percent owing to rise in the risk appetite after Bank of Japan announced open ended asset buying program to commence from 2014 in order to spur inflation to 2 percent levels. Apart from this, weakness in the DX also pushed spot gold prices higher till 4:30 p.m today. In the Indian markets depreciation in the Rupee along with rise in the import duty for the yellow metals acted as a supportive factor for the gold prices. Spot silver prices are cuurently trading on a flat note. Prices gained in the morning session due to weakness in the DX and traced firmness in the spot gold prices. Strength in the base metals pack also added to the gains in the spot silver prices. In the domestic market prices are trading on flat note tracing spot silver prices. However depreciation in the rupee cushioned prices from falling. The base metals pack traded on a positive note on the back of 1/2 favorable German Zew economic confidence which grew to 2 year high in the month of January. Weakness in the DX along with positive data from China also supported an upside in the base metals. Decline in the LME inventories in most of the base metals except nickel also added to the gains in the base metal prices. Copper, the leader of the base metals group increased by 0.6 percent owing to positive data from the Europe as well as Bank of Japan announced stimulus package to spur growth of the nation. Weakness in the DX along with decline in LME Copper inventories also acted as a supportive factor for the red metal prices. In the domestic market, copper prices gained tracing firmness in the international prices of the metal on LME and depreciation in the rupee. Nymex crude oil prices are trading on a flat note currently. Prices were trading higher in the early part of the session taking cues from the announcement of stimulus measures by Bank of Japan and weakness in the DX. In the domestic markets prices rose due to depreciation in the rupee.
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Performance during the day

Index Nifty Sensex Nikkei Kospi FTSE Open 6082.30 20102.43 10765.10 1986.58 17632.13 High 6101.15 20156.65 10859.42 1999.35 17729.15

as at 4.30 pm 22 January 13
Low 6041.40 19952.91 10615.20 1981.88 17394.24 Last 6048.50 19981.57 10709.93 1996.52 17394.24 % Chg from Prev day -0.56 -0.60 -0.35 0.49 0.47
Source: Reuters

as at 4.30 pm 22 January 13
Currency Dollar Index Euro/$ Spot INR/$ Spot Open 80.19 1.3311 53.75 High 80.19 1.3371 53.81 Low 79.805 1.3266 53.37 Current 79.88 1.3345 53.68 % Chg from Prev day -0.29 0.25 -0.17
Source: Reuters

as at 4.30 pm 22 January 13
Commodity Spot Gold Comex Gold Feb13 MCX Gold Feb13 Spot Silver Comex Silver Mar13 MCX Silver Mar 13 Crude Oil Nymex Jan 13 ICE -Brent Crude Oil MCX Crude Oil Jan 13 Copper LME - 3 Month MCX Copper Feb13 Zinc LME - 3 Month Zinc MCX - Jan13 Lead LME - 3 Month Lead MCX - Jan13 Nickel LME - 3 Month Nickel MCX - Jan13 Aluminum LME - 3 Month Aluminum MCX Jan13 Unit Open High Low Last % Chg from Prev day

$/oz $/oz Rs/10g ms $/oz $/oz Rs/kg $/bbl $/bbl Rs/bbl $/tonne Rs/kg $/tonne Rs/kg $/tonne Rs/kg $/tonne Rs/kg $/tonne Rs/kg

1689.55 1691.10 30773 31.99 29.98 59387 95.44 111.71 5149 8060.00 437.75 2032.50 108.80 2298 123.35 17425 934.50 2045.00 108.05

1694.50 1691.90 30807 32.11 30.18 59493 95.72 112.14 5166 8133.25 439.45 2046.25 109.20 2314 124.00 17550 938.90 2052.00 108.50

1688.84 1691.10 30715 31.88 29.95 59281 94.98 111.35 5145 8059.75 437.50 2032.50 108.55 2298 123.25 17425 932.40 2042.00 107.90

1691.89 1691.90 30769 31.98 30.18 59424 95.51 112.08 5165 8107.00 439.10 2043.50 109.15 2310 124.00 17481 937.00 2048.00 108.40

0.14 0.31 0.04 -0.03 0.67 -0.01 -0.05 0.33 0.27 0.65 0.64 0.52 0.55 0.60 0.69 0.29 0.46 0.15 0.32

Source: Reuters.

Commodities Evening Update

Tuesday | January 22, 2013

International Commodities
Outlook In the evening session we expect, precious metals, base metals and crude oil prices to trade on a positive note on the back of mixed market sentiments along with weakness in the DX. Stimulus measures announced by the Bank of Japan along with favorable data from the Euro region is raising hopes of recovery thereby supporting an upside in the commodities. Investors are also awaiting housing sector data from the US. If the data comes on a favorable note prices might find further support on the upside.

Technical Outook for evening session 22 January 13 ( CMP as of 5.00 pm)

Commodity Gold Feb'13 Spot Gold Silver Mar13 Spot Silver Crude Oil Jan '13 Nymex Crude Oil Jan13 Natural Gas Jan13 Copper Feb 13 Zinc Jan13 Lead Jan13 Aluminum Jan13 Nickel Jan13 Unit Rs/10 gm $/oz Rs /kg $/oz Rs /bbl $/bbl Rs /mmBtu Rs /kg Rs /kg Rs /kg Rs /kg Rs /kg Support 2 30670 1683 59098 31.69 5122 95.15 191.5 435.3 107.85 122.6 107.6 922 Support 1 30715 1688.4 59280 31.83 5140 95.6 193.7 437.1 108.55 123.2 107.9 932 CMP 30792 1692.8 59450 31.97 5175 96.1 195.1 439.55 109.05 124.05 108.55 937.8 Resistance1 30843 1694.4 59670 32.13 5189 96.3 196 440 109.3 124.3 108.8 942 Resistance 2 30908 1699 59826 32.25 5214 97.1 197.3 441.3 109.85 125 109.55 951

Important Events for Today

Indicator Monetary Policy Statement Overnight Call Rate All Industries Activity m/m BOJ Press Conference ECOFIN Meetings Public Sector Net Borrowing German ZEW Economic Sentiment ZEW Economic Sentiment Spanish HPI q/q 10-y Bond Auction CBI Industrial Order Expectations Existing Home Sales ECB President Draghi Speaks Country JPY JPY JPY JPY EU UK EU EU EU UK UK US EU Time (IST) 9:17 a.m 9:17 a.m 10:02 a.m Tentative All Day 3:00 pm 3:30 pm 3:30 pm Tentative 4:04 pm 4:30 pm 8:30 pm 11:30 pm Actual <0.10% -0.3% 13.2B 31.5 31.2 1.90|2.9 -20 Forecast <0.10% -0.3% 13.4B 12.2 14.1 -10 5.09 M Previous <0.10% -0.3% 15.3B 6.9 7.6 -2.4% 1.80|1.7 -12 5.04M Impact High High Low High Medium Medium High Medium Medium Medium High High High