5t HUGO BUU HOI RP1 260467907 CESL 500

INTRODUCTION Vietnam is a country that enjoys one of the highest gross domestic product (GDP) growth rates in the World, making it an evermore-attractive place for international operations in Southeast Asia. Full of economic promises, foreign investment opportunities are plentiful, but other key factors of national progress are disregarded: The impact of an impressive economic openness on a rigid social structure ruled by a centralized unique State Party, the consistency of political reforms toward more transparency and local empowerment, and ultimately the question of a regional leadership, are all issues to be addressed in the coming decades. The response to these political, economic and social challenges on par with the goal of sustaining prosperity would shape the conditions of a worldinfluent Vietnam.

I.

AN ECONOMIC OPENNESS BUT A TIMID DIPLOMATIC STANCE

A. Vietnam's impressive economic development, which originated in national reunification, has been evolving toward regional competition and worldwide liberalization, resulting in a deep restructuration of economic activity. In the wake of a reunification signaling the end of a deadly war, the labor force has grown by 3% annually but output production has been low. Some large-scale soviet aid helped as a remedy against lack of productivity, but it was minor in comparison with wide liberalization policies undertaken from 1987 to present days: They marked the start of Vietnam's Doi Moi (renovation), revolving around large-scale projects, bureaucratic centralism, and money printing. As a result, the 3 main economic sectors quickly recovered from a deeply war-torn, recent unification situation: Agriculture shifted from a point of famine to impressive surpluses making Vietnam the second rice exporter in the World as of now. This achievement is due to progressive liberalization of agricultural prices, competition among agricultural trading companies, circulation of output, and cultivation rights to farmers. The industrial sector was successfully transformed from cooperatives and poorly managed enterprises toward private enterprise and better managed state enterprises. Oil and cement industries expanded incredibly because of the reconstruction needs, spurred by facilitative foreign capital entries recently after the Soviet Union collapsed, thus not being able to provide affordable imports of raw materials. As for the regular goods sector (liquor, beer and cigarettes), it was directly exposed to international competition and therefore emancipated quickly from central planning of output and the bureaucratic grip of the trading companies. Lastly, the fact that " housing, tourism and repairs" surged by nearly 90% during 1988-91 substantiate how rapidly profitable the services industry became until present times (part 2) Today's economic challenges rely in Vietnam's recent WTO membership. New regulations and standards require further transformation of the main three economic sectors: Under the reduction of tariff barriers, the value of agricultural export has diminished while cultivation techniques, especially in the North, did not improve, thus threatening a major productivity crisis in rural areas since 82 million of Vietnamese (75% of population) are dependent on this sector and that 24 million peasants live in poverty. Still, the agricultural sector accounts for only about 23% of GDP so the shock can be cushioned. One benefit in the industrial sector is that even with outdated and less efficient capital, the export volume of clothing and textile, generated increased revenues, from 3,6 Billion $ to 4.2 Billion $ between 2004 and 2009. Services must remain competitive owing that liberalization of trade means reduction of service prices while state- management of transportation industries stays technocratic. Facing this rising competition, massive investment in infrastructure are made, notably the construction of a new Long Thanh airport costing 8$ Billion and capable of handling more than 80 million passengers.

B. Vietnam's current economy is booming thanks to massive Foreign Direct Investment (FDI). However, this practice results is an unequal geographic attraction that bears a social burden on segments of the working population. The 1987 law on FDI was the backbone of a steady economic growth. Any Foreign individuals or entities in the form of foreign exchange or its equivalent in assets approved by the government for the setting up of a wholly foreign owned enterprise a joint venture became entitled to operate inland. However, it provoked social dumping on two levels: On the one hand, child labor and other labor standards issues arose in the 1990s but the government addressed them properly by enforcing national standards and so did multinationals' with the pressure of ethic consumers in their market of origin. On the other hand, the levels of corporate income taxation are drastically varying: While they are inexistent in coastal zones of special economy for export production goods, inner territories lack this fiscal incentive, especially difficult socio-economic regions whose advantage is an abundant but underpaid-labor. The risk would be for the government to cut corporate income taxation to a point where employees fall into the trap of sustained poverty. Overall, this disparity of allocation between region and provinces originates in geographic economic specialization. C. The unequal spread of FDI is ensconced in a discriminative use of national assets from the Government, favoring massive exports at the expense of technologic efficiency of some key industries. Technology transfers resulting from FDI are unequal: As a 2006 UN report stated, " Although FDI contributed to the industrialization process in VN and the government's dual industrialization strategy of promoting the development of both export-oriented industries and import-substitution industries, the level of technology transferred through FDI flows, however, has varied among industries" Let's clarify this statement through a territorial and historical approach of Vietnam's competitive assets: Geographically, the North, geared toward Heavy Industry and natural resources, first benefited from large-scale modernization policies aiming at import but has lacked technology transfer in its capital-intensive activities. As a result, mineral resources extraction means in open quarries are obsolete. As for the low-paid workforce, a burden upon which Chinese mediums corporations take advantage against their Vietnamese counterparts, it limits the scope for introducing modern technology in the production process. Conversely, the South, relying on agriculture and services was first dismissed by the Doi Moi policy but progressively benefited from advanced technology and booming markets such as telecommunications, electronics etc. The food processing industries are greatly subsidized by the State in his effort to promote exportations of vegetable and groceries production

D. Eventually, all this steadfast economic integration has not given rise to a strong diplomatic voice in front of his former cultural and historical occupants. Regional constraints hinder Vietnamese policymakers in not being able to equate economic performance with foreign leadership. The main reason is that the Association of Southeast Asian Nations that Vietnam joined in 1995 is naturally dominated by China (ASEAN). Actually, the transparent and extensive collaboration on economic matters implied by the association, along with the shared communist ideology and the cultural proximity of the two people, limits the prospect of Vietnam being autonomous without facing restrictions of all kind. This is the reason why maritime conflicts opposing Vietnam to China and Taiwan on the South East Sea are in a stalemate, a thirdparty of ASEAN nations drafting conditions for the three countries. Historically, Vietnam has not yet claimed a tribute to two Western countries that tragically marked its history. The French brought with them a Western economic and administrative system which disrupted the traditional framework within which the people had regulated their lives: Not only did they imposed educational patterns that weakened the identity of the population, but also introduced economic expropriation of resources, since they were directly brought to the French market. In both cases, local peasants lived in misery. Nowadays, the French presence is mostly humanitarian and should as a moral reparation foster the development of the Vietnamese civil society by improving the living standards in relevant fields (medicine, literacy etc). Besides, a quota in terms of salary should limit enrolment of locals in NGO while measures should be implemented to develop small entrepreneurial structures. Causalities aside, the American military forces destroyed the environment and crushed the infrastructures with massive napalm bombings and should therefore compensate with a supply of high value-added investments aimed at spurring economic development. Normalization of the two countries is a fact, but is nowadays all the more interesting that China is becoming US economic rival. Wherever Chinese officials restrict inland operations of American multinationals, those latter could settle in Vietnam, thereby enjoying similarly low location costs. II. A VIBRANT CIVIL SOCIETY STRANGLED BY A ONE PARTY-STATE A. Vietnam is land of strong cultural diversity

Because Vietnam is a blend of different Asian cultures, some of which having been influenced by the West, needless to say that international visitors frequentation is increasing over year. Total international arrivals in the last 9 months reached 4,312,127, representing a 15.5% growth over the same period of 2010. Adequate infrastructure investment has been made to put forward historical sites, such as the Ho Chi Minh Trail, the Halong Bay or the Imperial site of Hue: Sightseeing is an amazing experience for these Westerners that seldom stay in hotel resorts along

the seashore. As a result, coastal cities are rising from earth, but not without arising some problems: Just as in Thailand, wicked tourists are inclined to drug consumption or worse, perform acts of pedophilia on local youngsters. The local police must stop these shameful practices with an inflexible, repressive attitude by refusing any bribery. Another point of Vietnam's structural diversity is its interconnected layers of languages, religions and ethnic mix: Three distinct categories can be drawn. First, the majority of people is Vietnamese 86% nonreligious 81%. They might speak a common form of Vietnamese but communicate very often with their local dialect, either belonging to the Tay 2% or the Tai 2% cultures. Second, there is a visible Chinese minority 9% forming the bulk of a Buddhist community 9% and preserving their own language. Third, western foreigners taking advantage of the investment-friendly environment form a Christian community 7% along with members of the former local elite when France spurred Catholicism during colonization. Like in every country full of history and culture, harmony of these elements is delicate to reach: Minor conflicts arise among ethnicities in the highlands. Religions, however, coexist pacifically but a suspicious Vietnamese Communist Party (VCP) tightly controls their proselytism. B. Where the Communist Party imposes a far-reaching ideology in all domains of existence. In order to create a stable business environment whereby Vietnam benefits from a global market economy, politicians have paradoxically always refused to apply within their boundaries the principles of economic and political freedom that serve the tremendous expansion of the country. In addition, the wave of intellectual influences over Vietnam's history makes it difficult to draw a unique and comprehensive notion of Legality by which politicians could abide. On the one hand, Socialism as a political system is quite the opposite of a democratic structure: Judicial and Legislative processes are the domains of the Unique Party and their officials from the National assembly take biased decisions. The bottom line is the organic relationship between the Party and Courts at all levels. Although reform promises toward more transparency in judicial sentences and appointments were made, the system truly lacks efficiency, as evidenced by a declining number of civil and economic cases overall and those being effectively treated by judges. In the past decade, this legal fallacy was sharply evidenced by dissidents whose anger was already fuelled by rising social inequalities and stronger state repression. The same collusion of Supreme Court and CPV officials also applies to the passing of laws in the National Assembly. This body (Quoc Hoi) and its provincial branches are a bogus embodiment of the slogan: dan biet, dan ban,dan lam,dan kiem tra (the people know, discuss, act and supervise). Actually, Vietnam is governed by a "Party-State" meaning that all decision and drafting is enforced behind closed doors by the CPV, whatever the opinion of the people. As opposed to major issues of national policies, technical questions fall to the National Assembly. Just like judges, voters and deputies are all members of the CPV, thereby creating a kind of non-debated consensus on legal and legislative issues.

On the other hand, the CPV promotes an anti-market competition system that purposefully lacks legal neoliberalism. Law adapts itself to the objectives of economic policy set by the CPV. This flexibility ensures a strong control of the national competitive business sectors by Party members. However, some dissidents argue that " law should be attached to politics but is not a servant of the state " ( Nha nuoc va Phap luat, 1996, 116-17) and legal pundits further this critique by denouncing a " state economic management" that compromises market rights, such as freedom to conduct authorized business activities. (Pham Duy Nghia 2002, 53 -6). Such legal ambiguities are turned into the advantage of local bureaucrats, as will be explained. But the reasons for this lack of legal reference are cultural, and therefore far more complex. Through the successive influence to China, the Soviet Bloc and the West, legal thinkers were and are still wondering how to make a synthesis of those successive ideas about legality and the preexisting knowledge of their ancestors. In addition to this crucial question being unanswered, the time of economic integration requires another legal challenge consisting of harmonizing national sentences to international standards, notably in the domain of international trade, as pinpointed in part 1. C. So long as this centralized State rules on arbitrary law, corruption would develop at the expense of social justice. As mentioned, bureaucrats determine what is legal or not. In so doing, they engage in immoral activities such as real-estate speculation, ballot trafficking or misuse of national subsidies to their own advantage. Many dissident web-groups, such as "Friends of Viet Tan" account for these scandals. In the meantime, socio-spatial segregation becomes an issue of great concern since one's status depends on rank affiliation inside the CVP. In the Northern rural areas, rich peasant whose involvement in the local Communist antenna has been long-standing, manage vast agricultural cooperation. Therefore, the majority of benefits go in their pocket while neglecting peasants who are allowed to grow their own crop but lack productive tools to consider a decent surplus. Conversely, rural areas below the Mekong Delta are far less labor-dependent because they benefited from US aid and technology that nowadays serve as a competitive tool, mainly for rice production. Rural capitalists enjoy more autonomy toward the State but are nonetheless compelled to give out the bulk of their profits. The population in Urban area is polarized in two extremes: menial workers forced to flee rural poverty to work in comparably dire conditions on construction sites in bustling downtown Hanoi and Saigon or luxury hotels on coastal regions; at the top of the ladder, high party-state cadres of the CVP enjoy an idle lifestyle, buying globalized goods, having access to housing, medical care and travel and providing their children with expensive schooling in French or English institutions. By all accounts, the Vietnamese people are fundamentally different but unfairly represented politically and economically. This social fracture could not have been brought about by Globalization only: Legal construction has been managed by a few to maximize economic performance, at the sordid expense of any strong social justice laws. Down the line, I believe this bureaucratic, arbitrary and greedy socialist structure is vowed to fall. Lies after lies, repression after

repression, CVP leaders are denying their sheer Confucian identity based on individual hard-work serving both an ancestral pride as well as a patriotic duty. Just like in the Imperial times (1075 to 1919), if such values prevailed as the framework of political life, then the Vietnamese people would reach for what they all aim for: a better way of life for their family, education for their children, and local empowerment for their community.

III. RETHINKING NATIONAL UNITY: PERSONAL IDEAS FOR THE FUTURE A. The willpower of the Vietnamese people avoided a post-war chaos

After the fall of Saigon on April 30th 1975 marking the reunification of Vietnam, the economy was at its weakest point but recovered thanks to the willpower of its people. Most of them benefited from the arrival of American goods in Saigon that they traded to less open-minded but curious Hanoi inhabitants. There are plenty of diverse, unusual and exotic success stories from these activities. A more profitable area of post-war informal trade that is still underway is the exploitation of former war trucks once rural inhabitants at the end of the war expropriated them. Although these forms of commerce have become under the CVP supervision which retains a part of earnings, these courageous entrepreneurs may now enjoy approximately the decent amount of 18.000 $/year, the minimum required to belong to a middle-class in a rich country which Vietnam will not be until the next 50 years: At present, the average GDP per capita of Vietnam is US$14.000. In these terms, it is still classified as a low-income country. At the pace of growing business opportunities and appropriate reforms of the private sector, this middle-class of honest entrepreneurs would outnumber the previously described "red capitalists" who are enjoying powerful relations in the business and the political circles, thereby spreading corruption and abuses of power. The idea is that even in front of war tragedies and current hypocrisy of officials, the common people have the sheer willpower to better their economic conditions, though they might lack the adequate means. However, the end of the war didn't mean the beginning of a new prosperity for influent South Vietnamese of imperial descent. When they had the luck not to be not imprisoned in Communist camps, they could only but flee to the US or Canada. Starting from scratch, this generation of 'boat people' had to work hard for being integrated in their new society. While the parents were compelled to perform menial jobs in restaurant or public services, they spare for their children's education and nourished them with a sense of academic achievement. Success stories in the USVietnamese communities of 'Viet Khieus', just like the election of the first bi-national congressman J.Cao last year, are plentiful too. Chiefly, they represent an incredible network of generous donors to contribute to Vietnam's local development since they maintained cultural ties with their region. But the bone of contention is that they presently refuse to collaborate with current officials on implementing similar projects on a national scale. This so-called "marriage of convenience" is a real political hindrance: The VCP

keeps away from the sharp expertise of some diaspora members who brilliantly graduated in the fields of economics, political science but also medicine and engineering from top Universities. B. And could shape a new national destiny adapted to the challenges of the 21st Century More understanding between the elite abroad and the "elite of rulers" inside could help Vietnam respond efficiently to its unmatched demographic surge for the next 50 years, requiring wise public investment in education, infrastructure and health. Another issue raised by reconsidering national destiny is the military leadership question: Again, the empowerment of foreign Vietnamese Academic experts could lead to the imperative 'strategic readjustment' of Vietnam in Southeast Asia, either choosing co-decision through the ASEAN or self-decision regarding military expenditures and intervention. Last but not least, the creativity of Vietnamese sustainable-innovators could bring a decisive step in avoiding looming ecological risks such as heavy rains and floods. Besides, the intellect of famous researchers in the field of science could prevent the propagation of related diseases with adequate treatments in poverty-ridden areas. C With democracy at its heart. Although this ambition is simple to formulate, its implementation calls for a democratic change: After French rule, South Vietnam's manipulation by the USA, Vietnam must face its political destiny with independence and empowerment of its people at all levels. This ambition requires an unbiased judiciary system that could enforce both land ownership for highland minorities and common property rights regardless of bribery. It also addresses the question of preserving regional specificities in a united, prosperous and free country. In a democracy, citizens debate in one language. As explained, Vietnam boasts a layer of regional, local and ancestral means of communication that never overlap one another for they have different wording and pronunciation patterns. Such a democratic structure, if attainable, should rely on local empowerment of communities. In fact, the failure of South Vietnam as a democracy was that such an ideal was imposed by a stubborn American government to the leaders that in turn urged its people to accept all "national" wartime effort through a "social engineering program" devised by technocrats. But it contradicted the mentality of rural people, who either had a pacifist stance such as Buddhists or didn't reject their "communist enemy" for they ousted the French in 1954. The error was that such claims were known, but kept shut by officials. This lack of confidence resulted in a bloody coup-d'tat, an unstable regime, distant from its people, which in the end capitulated after 20 years of bloodshed

To summarize, the conditions for these changes to happen are a strong intergenerational awareness of Vietnamese identity shared among expatriates, the implementation of fair governance and a grass-root faith of the people in the future.

CONCLUSION Vietnam as a country and a people has incredible resources to make it a thriving, safe and vibrant place in the world. However, a clique deciding on partial Rules takes advantages of economic openness and in so doing further limits the empowerment of locals whose means of expression are inexistent, aside from antennas of the Communist party. Historically, Vietnam has endured ravaging wars that humanity has ever experienced. But the sheer mentality of its people helped it overcome tragic post-conflict situations. In the 21st century, such resiliency could be galvanized by knowledgeable Viet Kieus (Vietnamese from abroad) in order to win the battle for democracy, social justice and national reconciliation. By all accounts, this irresistible path would shape a unique form of Vietnamese leadership, based on innovations of all kind.

The seats of state lie ready for high skills. Must one let vulgar hands draw Heaven's sword? Should wicked rascals hone the crescent-ax? Nguyen Binh Khiem 1491-1585 translation by Huynh San Thong.