Estimation of Solar Power Generating Capacity

Lin Phyo Naing

Department of Electrical & Computer Engineering National University of Singapore Singapore U0705931@nus.edu.sg 4 Engineering Drive 3, Singapore 119260

Dipti Srinivasan
Department of Electrical & Computer Engineering National University of Singapore Singapore dipti@nus.edu.sg 4 Engineering Drive 3, Singapore 119260

Abstract Solar energy is one of the most promising renewable energy sources. In order to integrate this type of source into an existing power distribution system, system planners need an accurate model that predicts the availability of the generating capacity. Solar resources are known to exhibit a high variability in space and time due to the influence of other climatic factors such as cloud cover. The probability distribution of irradiance fluctuations is difficult to predict due to various uncertainties. For efficient conversion and utilization of the solar resource, the solar resource modelling is one of the most essential tools for proper development, planning, maintenance scheduling and pricing of solar energy system. This paper proposes the Mathematical and Neural Network Prediction models for estimation of solar radiation for Singapore. Meteorological and geographical data (latitude, longitude, altitude, month, mean sunshine duration, etc.) were used as inputs to the models. The estimated results are compared with the field data obtained from the pyranometer installed on the solar panel with a tilt of 15. The relevance and performance of each model in Singapores weather context is then evaluated using statistical tools, namely Mean Bias Error, Root Mean Squared Error and Mean Absolute Percentage Error. The results show that the correlation coefficients between the proposed model and the actual daily solar radiation were higher than 90%, thus suggesting a high reliability of the model for evaluation of solar radiation received in Singapore. These models can be used easily for estimation of solar radiation for preliminary design of solar applications.

monsoon seasons receive less rain and wind. The clouds movement due to the wind overshadows the panels below and causes the fluctuations in the receiving radiation. The sunlight diffracted by the clouds results in the diffused radiation to be more dominant than the direct and reflected radiation received on the inclined solar panel. The sum of these three radiation components gives the net solar radiation received by the solar panel. The three radiation components are shown in Fig. 1.

IBC Direct beam radiation IDC Diffuse beam radiation IRC Reflected beam radiation Figure 1: Radiation components received on the inclined collector

I.

INTRODUCTION

ith the escalating demand for energy and the rising price of fossil fuels, the possibility of harnessing renewable energies as alternative sources of energy is actively being explored. In Singapore context, solar energy would be the most viable renewable energy source to be explored. Singapore lies just north of the Equator near Latitude 1.5 deg N and Longitude 104 deg E. The annual average sunshine duration is about 4 peak sun hours per day. Due to its proximity to the equator, there is abundant amount of sunlight reaching Singapore throughout the year. This allows high output from solar panels, thus it is possible to harness solar energy as an alternative renewable energy source to supply the rising energy demand of Singapore. Singapores sky is almost cloudy all the time with monsoon seasons happening twice a year. Only the periods between
This Project was funded by NRF project: R 263 000 522 272.

The generating capacity of solar energy depends on the suns intensity, sunshine hour and the sky conditions. Due to this dependency, solar irradiance is mostly characterized by short time fluctuations as it responds to these changes instantly. The probability distribution of irradiance fluctuations is difficult to predict due to various uncertainties. Since the efficiency of solar panels differ from panel to panel, it is logical to predict the amount of radiation received by the solar panel. To achieve this, various models derived by other researchers are studied. In chronological order, the models studied have been proposed by Meinel (1976) [1], Temps and Coulson (1977) [2], Klucher (1979) [2], Hay (1979) [2], Reindl et al. (1990) [2], ASHRAE (1993) [3] and Muneer (2004) models [2]. Following this, the necessary equipments such as pyranometer and solar panel are prepared for setting up the experiment. With the information from the NUS Geography Weather Station [4], the adequacy of various models being proposed is investigated.

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Solar radiation at any site depends on the availability of the solar flux which varies monthly as well as throughout the day. In the past, the information of the energy received from the sun on the horizontal surface is scarce due to the costly measurement. Thus the researchers have proposed a few models to estimate the irradiation information based on the meteorological data. However, most of the models are developed for US sky conditions. Therefore, this paper aims to find a suitable model that could be able to predict the solar irradiance for Singapore sky conditions.

1200 Tilt Insolation (W/m )

2

1000 800 600 400 200 0 0 60 120 180 240 300 360 420 480 540 600 Time (Minutes)

II.

PROBLEM FORMULATION

Solar radiation data is a fundamental input for solar energy applications such as photovoltaics, solar-thermal systems and other solar-based applications. The genuine irradiation data that is needed for solar photovoltaic applications is the irradiation estimations on a sloped surface since solar panels are sloped to a certain degree for optimum irradiation. Even the equatorial regions employ sloped panels simply to keep it clean from collection of rain water and dust. The data should be reliable and readily available for designing, optimization and performance evaluation of solar technologies. Mostly solar energy systems are designed based on the monthly average of global solar radiation and other climatic data. Besides, it is rather important to determine the beam and diffuse components of total radiation incident on a horizontal surface. Once these components are determined, they can be transposed over tilted surfaces, and hence, the performance of tilted flat plate collectors, photovoltaic modules and other solar devices can be estimated. A. Data Analysis Solar resources are known to exhibit a high variability in space and time due to the influence of other climatic factors such as cloud cover. The probability distribution of irradiance fluctuations is difficult to predict due to various uncertainties. The generating capacity of solar energy depends on the suns intensity, sunshine hour and the sky conditions. Due to this dependency, solar irradiance is mostly characterized by short time fluctuations as it responds to these changes instantly. Therefore, the field data is collected every minute. E.g. Fig.2 shows the minute data between 8am to 6pm. This data first needs to be processed before it can be used for comparison with other models. A simulation program is developed to extract the maximum radiation received hourly from the minute data as shown in Fig. 3. Then this hourly maximum radiation data is used in evaluation of the models performance.

Figure 2: Everyminute radiation data collected from field

Figure 3: Hourly maximum radiation

Mathematical Description Different Mathematical Models propose different equation for the direct beam radiation (IB). From the direct beam radiation, the horizontal direct (IBH) and diffused (IDH) beam radiations are estimated based on the solar altitude angle (). Once the horizontal components are determined, they can be transposed over tilted surfaces, and hence, the direct (IBC), diffuse (IDC) and reflected (IRC) radiations are estimated based on the incident angle (), solar azimuth angle, collector angle and tilt angle (). The sum of these three components gives the total insolation received on the inclined collector. 1. 2. Beam Insolation on horizontal surface, IBH = IB sin Diffuse Insolation on horizontal surface, IDH = CIB where C is the sky diffuse factor Total Horizontal Insolation, IH = IBH + IDH Beam Insolation on collector, IBC = IB cos Diffuse Insolation on collector, IDC = IDH [(1 + cos )/2] Reflected Insolation on collector, IRC = IH [(1 - cos )/2] (1) (2)

B.

3. 4. 5. 6.

(3) (4) (5) (6)

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C. Flow of Analysis The basic parameters to calculate the solar insolations are the day number, the observation period, latitude, tilt angle and collector azimuth angle. Based on these parameters, the parameters of solar energy systems such as hour angle, solar declination angle, solar altitude, solar azimuth, air mass ratio and incident angles can be calculated. Since these are the constants that will be used in the model equations, they were prepared first to use as an input file to the program. The outputs will be useful for system planners for a quick review on the radiation received on the 15 inclined collector. After simulation of the mathematical models, the hourly maximum radiation data processed from the minute field data is then used to evaluate the performance of the models. Fig. 4 shows the flow of analysis.

III.

SOLAR PANEL ANALYSIS AND EXPERIMENTAL SETUP

A. Maximum Power Point The maximum power point (MPP) is important for a photovoltaic array to be employed efficiently and is defined by the point on the current-voltage (I-V) curve of a solar module under illumination where the product of the current and voltage is at maximum [3]. The efficiency of the PV panel is highest when it operates at the maximum power point (MPP). However, as the amount of solar radiation is not constant throughout the day, the MPP changes at different time of the day. This concept is shown in Fig. 5. Therefore maximum power point trackers (MPPT) are designed to vary the electrical loads according to the amount of solar radiation such that the MPP is achieved. For the purpose of this project, the MPP for the solar panel being used is investigated and Fig. 6 is plotted to provide an overview of MPP.

Figure 5: MPP and effect of insolation

Figure 6: MPP curve of Polycrystalline solar panel

Figure 4: Flow chart of analysis

B. Effect of Inclination Angle The mathematical formulas used for calculating the solar altitude and solar azimuth are obtained from Renewable and Efficient Electric Power Systems by G.M. Masters [3]. When the azimuth of the solar panel is kept constant to face south throughout the experiment and the solar panel inclination angle varied at different time of the day, the maximum power output is achieved. This makes sense since at different time of

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the day, the solar altitude is varying and therefore the optimal inclination angle changes throughout the day. However, PV panels are mostly installed with fixed inclination angle and MPPTs are not deployed for economical reasons. The maximum insolation occurs when the tilt angle equals the latitude angle of the location and the module is facing south for countries in north hemisphere and vice versa. Hence the PV panels in Singapore should be installed at an inclination angle equal to the latitude of 1.5 degree facing south. In practice, an inclination angle of at least 15 is generally recommended as rainwater collected on the surface of the solar modules would not be able to drain off at such a low angle. Therefore, the tilt angle of 15 is chosen in this analysis. The magnetic declination of Singapore [5] is 0 16' E. Since Singapore is located in the northern hemisphere, the panel is adjusted to face south. Therefore, the azimuth angle for the collector is zero. C. Experimental Setup The experimental setup was installed in National University of Singapore campus as shown in Fig. 7. The pyranometer is tilted with the same angle as the panel in order to measure the insolation that is received on the panel. This pyranometer is set up together with a data logger to record the radiation for every minute. The estimation of the tilt radiation is done using the various Mathematical and Neural Network Prediction Models. The hourly maximum radiation data recorded is compared with the estimated results from the Mathematical Models and Neural Network Models.

Apparent Extraterrestrial Flux, A = 1160 + 75 sin [360/365 (n 275)] Optical depth, k = 0.174 + 0.035 sin [360/365 (n 100)] where m = air mass ratio, n = day number
TABLE I. PERFORMANCE OF ASHRAE MODEL

(8) (9)

Months August September October B.

MBE 70.3613 108.6651 87.9431

RMSE 183.4408 234.3970 281.2960

MAPE 13.6611 20.0975 16.3510

Meinel Model IB = 1353 * 0.7AM

0.678

(10)

where IB is the intensity on a plane perpendicular to the sun's rays in units of W/m2 and AM is the air mass. The value of 1353 W/m2 is the solar constant and the number 0.7 arises from the fact that about 70% of the radiation incident on the atmosphere is transmitted to the Earth. The extra power term of 0.678 is an empirical fit for US and takes into account the non-uniformities in the atmospheric layers. Table II shows the statistical errors of Meinel Model.
TABLE II. PERFORMANCE OF MEINEL MODEL

Months August September October

MBE 79.0665 58.5750 14.7112 V.

RMSE 191.5597 214.4336 260.9360

MAPE 15.3513 10.8334 2.7352

MODELS FOR SINGAPORE

The models developed for US give large errors which also overestimate the radiation for Singapore sky conditions. A reliable model that could predict the amount of radiation received on the inclined plane is needed for system planners in designing, optimization and performance evaluation of solar technologies. Therefore, the following two models are proposed for Singapore. A. Modified ASHRAE Model ASHRAE model for US clear sky overestimates the radiation for Singapore as ASHRAE had used the data recorded on average cloudless days of US sky whereas there are no cloudless days in Singapore. Bong Tet Yin and Wong Yew Wah have studied the Meteorological data of Singapore for the period 1995 1999 and proposed the Clearness Number (CN) on an average sunny day and the associated Diffuse Factor (C) of the Singapore sky [6]. These two constants are incorporated into the equation and optical depth is increased by 0.1 as the Singapore sky is cloudier than US clear sky. With these modifications, the errors are found to be reduced significantly. As can be seen in Table III and Fig. 8, the modified ASHRAE models estimates are closed to the actual radiation.

Figure 7: Experimental Setup

IV.

MODEL SUITABILITY ANALYSIS

A. ASHRAE Model ASHRAE is developed by American Society of Heating, Refrigerating and Air Conditioning Engineers (ASHRAE) to estimate the beam portion of the irradiation reaching the earths surface, Direct Beam Radiation (IB) for US clear sky. The performance of this model is investigated and the statistical errors are recorded in Table I. Direct Beam Radiation, IB = A ekm (7)

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Optical depth, k = 0.174 + 0.035 sin [360/365 (n 100)] + 0.1 Beam Insolation on horizontal surface, IBH = CN IB sin Diffuse Insolation on horizontal surface, IDH = CIB Beam Insolation on collector, IBC = CN IB cos
TABLE III. PERFORMANCE OF MODIFIED ASHRAE MODEL

(11) (12) (13) (14)

Referring to Table IV and Fig. 9, the modified Meinel Model could predict the radiation as close as the actual radiation.
TABLE IV. PERFORMANCE OF MODIFIED MEINEL MODEL

August September October

R 0.65 0.67 0.71

MBE -9.4401 -7.1063 -7.7514

RMSE 174.5337 207.3476 264.2532

MAPE 1.8329 1.3143 1.4412

Months August September October

MBE -23.2440 -15.8001 -30.3846

RMSE 175.3339 205.1183 259.5897

MAPE 4.5130 2.9222 5.6493

Figure 9: Modified Meinel closely follows the actual radiation

Figure 8: Modified ASHRAE closely follows the actual radiation

In conclusion, the direct beam radiation that is received on the panel depends on the percentage radiation constant, R. This R is different for each month according to the season. The R defined here is using only one year data for each month. To get a more accurate percentage radiation constant, R, the tilt radiation data for many years should be used and analyzed for each month. The new accurate R could be obtained by averaging out the R for each month by the number of years. C. Neural Network Model In this project, Back-propagation (BP) feed-forward with Multiple Hidden Slabs Architecture is used. Different number of hidden neurons, various combinations of activation functions, training algorithm, learning rate and momentum constant are tested in training the network. Although different activation functions are used in different layers, purelin is used in the output layer as it can take on any value, whereas the sigmoid neurons in last layer limit the output of the network to a small range. The speed and stability of the network is determined by the learning rate and momentum. Depending on the complexity of the data, an increasing number of hidden layer neurons can be used to allow the network to learn patterns that are more complex. Intensive training on neural network is done. Altitude angle, azimuth angle, air mass ratio, horizontal radiation are used as inputs based on the data sets for August and September with observation periods 8am to 6pm per day. After training the network, a testing set is used to validate the performance of the networks prediction capability.

Modified Meinel Model As Meinel Model was developed for the US clear sky, the constant terms in the models have been empirically fit for US. Since Singapore sky is almost cloudy, the percentage radiation that is received in Singapore is not fixed as in US clear sky model. On cloudy days, the percentage radiation is reduced and on sunny days, it is increased. Therefore, for Singapore, the percentage radiation constant, R for each month should be fixed to predict the radiation received as close as possible to actual radiation received. The percentage radiation constant, R for each month has been determined by fitting the estimated results with the actual data recorded from the experimental setup. Usually, solar energy systems are designed with a backup storage device such as batteries. The sizing of the storage device is based on the radiation that the panel would receive. So if R that gives the overestimated values is chosen, the amount of power from the solar energy system may not meet the demand. Therefore, the R that gives the lowest MBE which underestimates the actual radiation is chosen. IB = 1353 * RAM (15)

B.

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TABLE V.

PERFORMANCE OF NEURAL NETWORK

Algorithm Gradient descent Gradient descent with momentum Levenberg-Marquardt optimization

MBE 6.72 5.89 -6.38

RMSE 200.79 225.19 353.30

MAPE 1.27 1.11 1.20

and the neural network is able to use multiple relevant inputs to predict the output. With the ability to incorporate more relevant parameters as compared to mathematical models, a neural network offers more flexibility and better generalization provided that the network parameters are set correctly to avoid over-training. Mathematical models could not predict as accurate as a neural network because the effects of cloud covers or whether the sky is overcast or non-overcast are not considered. VII. CONCLUSION Solar radiation data is a fundamental input for solar energy applications. In Singapore context, there is no clear season defined and the sky is normally cloudy. Accurate solar radiation resource data are necessary at various steps of the design, simulation, and performance evaluation of any project involving solar energy. Solar energy systems are installed on either fixed tilted planes or tracking receivers. Prediction of the irradiance incident on such tilted surfaces is the key to the evaluation of the effective solar resource and of the performance of all these systems. In practice, the solar panels in Singapore are installed with a 15 degree tilt. The models proposed in this paper are investigated with the actual data recorded with 15 degree tilt setup. The mathematical models developed for US give a large error for prediction in Singapore with MAPE range 3% to 20%, whereas the modified models for Singapore could predict with MAPE range 1.3% to 5.6% and the neural network models could predict with error as small as 1.1%. Therefore, these modified models are handy for system planners in designing their energy systems which incorporate the solar resource as the renewable energy. REFERENCES
[1] PVeducation. Solar Power Labs at ASU Arizona State University. [Online] http://pvcdrom.pveducation.org/main.html. [2] Muneer, T. Solar Radiation and Daylight models. s.l. : Reed Education and Professional Publishing Ltd., 1997. [3] Masters, Gilbert M. Renewable and Efficient Electric Power Systems. s.l. : John Wiley & Sons, Inc., 2004. [4] NUS Geography Weather Station. [Online] NUS Geography Department. http://courses.nus.edu.sg/course/geomr/front/fresearch/metstation/index. html. [5] Geomagnetism Calculator. Natural Resources Canada. [Online] http://gsc.nrcan.gc.ca/geomag/index_e.php. [6] Clearness Number and Diffuse Factor of the meteorological conditions in Singapore. Wah, Bong Tet Yin and Wong Yew. 5, s.l. : The Insitution of Engineers, Singapore., 2004, Vol. 1. [7] Soteris Kalogirou. Introduction to Artificial Intelligence in Energy and Renewable Energy Systems.: Nova Science Publishers, Inc. 2007. [8] Performance of the meteorological radiation model during the solar eclipse of 29 March 2006. B. E. Psiloglou and H. D. Kambezidis. [9] Modelling of solar energy potential in Nigeria using an aritificial neural network model. D.A. Fadare. Applied Energy, 2009. [10] Artificial neural networks applied in PV systems and solar radiation. Leocadio Hontoria, Jorge Aguilera, Florencia Almonacid, Gustavo Nofuentes and Pedro Zufiria: Artificial Intelligence in Energy and Renewable Energy Systems. Nova Science Publishers, Inc. 2007. [11] Prediction of flat-plate collector performance parameters using artificial neural networks. Soteris A. Kalogirou: Solar Energy, 2006.

Figure 10: Performance of Neural Network

After intensive training, the network is tested with the new data set. The performance of the network can be seen in Table V and Fig. 10. Thus, the neural network models could predict with the lowest error. VI. MODELS PERFORMANCE COMPARISON

The table below summarizes the results obtained using the mathematical models, modified models and neural network models using August as a sample month.
TABLE VI. COMPARISON OF DIFFERENT MODELS

Algorithm ASHRAE (Original) Modified ASHRAE Meinel (Origianl) Modified Meinel Gradient descent Gradient descent with momentum Levenberg-Marquardt optimization

MBE 70.3613 -23.2440 79.0665 -9.4401 6.72 5.89 -6.38

RMSE 183.4408 175.3339 191.5597 174.5337 200.79 225.19 353.30

MAPE 13.6611 4.5130 15.3513 1.8329 1.27 1.11 1.20

From Table VI, the original ASHRAE model overestimates the radiation for Singapore where as the modified model could predict the tilt radiation with a smaller MAPE of 4.5%. Similarly, the modified Meinel model has smaller MAPE than that of the original Meinel model. Amongst all, neural network predictions obtain the best results based on statistical analysis, with MAPE as small as 1.1%. From this evaluation, the neural network approach has proven to be a more effective prediction model from literature

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