Sales of Gas at the Exon Gas Station

Week
1

Day
Monaday
Tuesday
Wednesday
Thursday
Friday
Saturday
Sunday
Monday
Tuesday
Wednesday
Thursday
Friday
Saturday
Sunday
Monday
Tuesday
Wednesday
Thursday
Friday
Saturday
Sunday

Column2

Galons (000s)
28
16
24
44
65
82
30
33
21
29
49
70
87
35
35
23
31
51
72
89
37

MA

41.29
42.00
42.71
43.43
44.14
44.86
45.57
46.29
46.57
46.86
47.14
47.43
47.71
48.00
48.29

Regression
Days

Sales
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16

28
16
24
44
65
82
30
33
21
29
49
70
87
35
35
23

SUMMARY OUTPUT
Regression Statistics
Multiple R
0.308165113
R Square
0.094965737
Adjusted R Square 0.047332355
Standard Error
22.45998949
Observations
21
ANOVA
df
Regression

17
18
19
20
21

31
51
72
89
37

Residual
Total

Intercept
Days

19
20
Coefficients
32.71428571
1.142857143

Column1

Regression output
100

Y=1.14x+32.71
R2 =0.0949

90
80
70
60
50

Regression output

40

Linear (Regression output)

30
20
10
0
0

SS
MS
1005.714286 1005.714286

10

15

F
Significance F
1.99368
0.174125362

20

25

9584.571429 504.4511278
10590.28571
Standard Error t Stat
P-value
Lower 95%
Upper 95%
Lower 95.0%
10.16328558 3.218869081 0.004519
11.44228457 53.98628686
11.44228457
0.809401838 1.41197745 0.174125 -0.551240369 2.836954655
-0.551240369
Null Hypothesis (H0 ) : 1 = 0
Alternate Hypothesis (H1 ) : 0
Note: If P value is less than 5% then do not reject the null.
Meaning in this regression time cannot explain changes in oil
prices.

=1.14x+32.71

Regression output

inear (Regression output)

Upper 95.0%
53.98628686
2.836954655

Sales of Sun Cream by Neutrogena

Year

Quarter
2006

Sales (000s)
1
2
3
4
1
2
3
4
1
2
3
4
1

2007

2008

2009

Quarter
2006
2007
2008
Average
Adjusted

Moving Average (MA)

6.00
9.00
12.00
8.00
8.00
13.50
17.00
13.00
12.00
20.25
30.00
19.50
18.00

8.75
9.25
10.38
11.63
12.88
13.88
15.56
18.81
20.44
21.94

2
-3.00
-5.19
-4.09
-4.15

3
3.00
3.63
8.81
5.15
5.09

1.25
0.63
0.94
0.88

Error
3.00
2.00
1.00
0.00
1
-1.00
-2.00
-3.00
-4.00
-5.00

9
Error

-5.00

Sales of Sun Cream by Neutrogena (Multiplicative method)

Year

Quarter
2006

1
2
3
4
1
2
3
4
1
2
3
4
1

2007

2008

2009

Quarter
2006
2007
2008
Average
Adjusted

Sales (000s)

Moving Average (MA)

6.00
9.00
12.00
8.00
8.00
13.50
17.00
13.00
12.00
20.25
30.00
19.50
18.00

2
0.73
0.70
0.71
0.72

8.75
9.25
10.38
11.63
12.88
13.88
15.56
18.81
20.44
21.94

3
1.33
1.27
1.42
1.34
1.35

1.10
1.03
1.07
1.07

Forecasting

Sales
35.00

30.00

30.00

25.00

20.00

15.00

10.00

5.00

0.00
0

10

12

by Neutrogena
Centred Moving Average

seasonal difference Adjusted

9.00
9.81
11.00
12.25
13.38
14.72
17.19
19.63
21.19

SUM
-1.81
-1.72
-1.77
-1.82

35.00

30.00

25.00

Error

20.00

15.00

10.00

3.00
-1.81
-3.00
1.25
3.63
-1.72
-5.19
0.63
8.81

predicted Error

5.09
-1.82
-4.15
0.88
5.09
-1.82
-4.15
0.88
5.09

Average
1.19
0.16
4.25
0.22
0.17

14.09
7.99
6.85
13.13
18.46
12.90
13.04
20.51
26.28

Column2
0.297
0.039
1.063
0.056
0.00

2.09
-0.01
-1.15
-0.37
1.46
-0.10
1.04
0.26
-3.72

5.00

0.00
1

ena (Multiplicative method)

Centred Moving Average

seasonal factor

9.00
9.81
11.00
12.25
13.38
14.72
17.19
19.63
21.19

1.33
0.82
0.73
1.10
1.27
0.88
0.70
1.03
1.42

SUM

Adjusted

predicted Error

1.35
0.86
0.72
1.07
1.35
0.86
0.72
1.07
1.35

Average of Avg Column2

0.82
0.88
0.85
0.86

12.18
8.39
7.89
13.16
18.09
12.59
12.34
21.08
28.66

3.97

1.007

-0.18
-0.39
0.11
0.34
-1.09
0.41
-0.34
-0.83
1.34

Sales
Linear (Sales)

12

14

16

Sales
Trend

2007

2008

2009

1
2
3
4
1
2
3
4
1
2
3
4
1
2

Forecast
6.00
8.85
11.8425
8.192125
8.009606
13.22548
16.81127
13.19056
12.05953
19.84048
29.49202
19.9996

35.00
30.00
25.00

Value

2006

20.00
15.00
10.00
5.00
0.00
1

Exponential Smoothing

Actual
Forecast

10

11

12

13

Data Point

Exponential Smoothing
35.00
30.00
25.00

Value

20.00
Actual

15.00

Forecast
10.00
5.00
0.00
1

7
Data Point

10

11

12

13

7
Data Point

10

11

12

13

Actual
Forecast

SUMMARY OUTPUT
Regression Statistics
Multiple R
0.258769078
R Square
0.066961436
Adjusted R Square
-0.017860252
Standard Error
6.636048264
Observations
13
ANOVA
df
Regression
Residual
Total

Intercept
Quarter

1
11
12

SS
MS
F
Significance F
34.76457467 34.76457467 0.789437674
0.393284737
484.4085023 44.03713657
519.1730769

Coefficients
Standard Error
t Stat
P-value
10.92454955
4.248677286 2.571282499 0.025990934
1.426801802
1.605849072 0.888503052 0.393284737

Lower 95%
1.573273898
-2.107648172

Upper 95% Lower 95.0% Upper 95.0%

20.2758252 1.573273898
20.2758252
4.961251775 -2.107648172 4.961251775

Median Income and Median Home Price in Selected Eastern Cities (n = 34)
City

Income

Home

Alexandria, VA
Bernards Twp., NJ
Brentwood, TN
Bridgewater, NJ
Cary, NC
Centreville, VA
Chantilly, VA
Chesapeake, VA
Collierville, TN
Columbia, MD
Coral Springs, FL
Dranesville, VA
Dunwoody, GA
Ellicott City, MD
Franconia, VA
Gaithersburg, MD
Hoover, AL
Hunter Mill, VA
Lower Makefield Twp., PA
Manalapan Twp., NJ
Marlboro Twp., NJ
Matoaca, VA
Newtown, CT
North Andover, MA
Oakton, VA
Olney, MD
Peachtree City, GA
Ramapo, NY
Randolph Twp., NJ
Reston, VA
Roswell, GA
Sugarland Run, VA
Sully, VA
Wellington, FL

59.976
112.435
107.866
93.484
77.091
77.243
94.864
53.758
85.716
77.033
62.632
109.502
86.971
83.583
84.537
64.944
64.431
93.987
102.997
91.245
108.759
65.149
97.723
79.169
90.824
100.716
79.805
64.954
104.121
85.264
76.530
103.350
92.942
76.076

290.000
279.900
338.250
316.000
207.000
250.000
320.000
150.000
230.000
199.000
218.500
290.000
315.000
248.000
290.000
220.000
170.450
290.000
205.000
410.000
379.975
135.000
358.500
342.500
341.000
287.450
214.500
330.875
444.500
240.000
226.450
278.250
290.000
230.000

Note: All values are in thousands of dollars.

Income = median famil

Home = median home

Key:

LearningStats
Copyright 2011
by
The McGraw-Hill Companies
This spreadsheet is intended solely for educational
purposes by licensed users of LearningStats. It
may not be copied or resold for profit.

Source Money Magazine, Vol. 32, No. 1, J

102-103. Data are intended for educationa
and should not be viewed as a guide to fina

SUMMARY OUTPUT
Regression Statistics
Multiple R
0.582994
R Square
0.339882
Adjusted R Square
0.319254
Standard Error
58.85482
Observations
34
ANOVA
df
Regression
Residual
Total

Intercept
Income

1
32
33
Coefficients
51.24649
2.609815

Intercept is no

Income coeffie
Meaning 0.00

When income

n thousands of dollars.
Income = median family income (thousands)
Home = median home price (thousands)

Regression Model:

ningStats

ght 2011
by
w-Hill Companies

y 0 1 x

ended solely for educational

users of LearningStats. It
ed or resold for profit.

, Vol. 32, No. 1, January, 2004, pp.

intended for educational purposes only,
iewed as a guide to financial decisions.

y=home prices
x=income
0 = intercept coeeficient
1 = income coefficient

R Square is less than 90%. Not a good fit. Here

only 33% of the data can explain the model.

SS
57071.8
110844.5
167916.3

MS
F
Significance F
57071.8 16.47622 0.000297
3463.89

Standard Error t Stat

P-value Lower 95% Upper 95%Lower 95.0%
Upper 95.0%
55.94145 0.916074 0.366481 -62.7025 165.1955 -62.7025 165.1955
0.642956 4.059091 0.000297 1.300157 3.919473 1.300157 3.919473

Intercept is not significant because p-velue is more than 5%.

Income coeffiecient is significant because p-value is less than 5%.
Meaning 0.002% of the time we reject the null hypothesis.
When income increases by $1 housing price increases by $2.60.

Mortgage Foreclosure Rate and Economic Indicators (n = 50 states, k = 7 predictors)

State
Alabama
Alaska
Arizona
Arkansas
California
Colorado
Connecticut
Delaware
Florida
Georgia
Hawaii
Idaho
Illinois
Indiana
Iowa
Kansas
Kentucky
Louisiana
Maine
Maryland
Massachusetts
Michigan
Minnesota
Mississippi
Missouri
Montana
Nebraska
Nevada
New Hampshire
New Jersey
New Mexico
New York
North Carolina
North Dakota
Ohio
Oklahoma
Oregon
Pennsylvania
Rhode Island

2007 Foreclosure
Rates (per 1,000)

Mass Layoff
events per
100,000 people

Foreclosure
2.70
4.90
15.20
5.10
19.20
19.20
8.30
2.70
20.00
15.70
2.00
6.10
12.50
10.30
3.10
2.00
2.70
2.00
0.40
8.30
6.60
19.50
5.10
1.10
9.10
2.70
4.70
33.80
2.10
9.00
3.60
4.90
7.40
0.80
18.00
5.20
5.40
3.00
4.10

MassLayoff
5.96
2.78
1.56
2.43
11.30
1.65
1.46
1.97
4.36
3.67
3.58
6.14
4.99
5.91
6.43
3.31
8.16
2.49
3.04
2.28
1.98
9.42
3.83
2.74
5.60
5.12
1.80
5.26
2.36
5.79
2.79
3.80
1.03
3.44
6.24
1.91
6.88
9.50
5.10

Share of new
average home prices to
mortgages that were
median household
subprime in 2005
income ratio
SubprimeShare
28%
18%
26%
23%
25%
24%
23%
20%
30%
28%
19%
22%
29%
26%
22%
23%
24%
28%
22%
27%
19%
28%
23%
33%
27%
18%
22%
28%
20%
21%
22%
23%
22%
16%
26%
27%
22%
19%
27%

PriceIncomeRatio
4.04
5.54
6.79
3.68
9.54
6.68
6.52
6.07
7.30
4.55
8.92
5.01
6.51
4.15
4.01
4.38
4.68
3.92
4.86
6.91
6.43
4.95
5.24
3.93
4.92
5.95
4.65
5.66
6.75
7.03
5.23
6.31
4.57
4.30
4.83
4.32
6.52
5.11
6.68

South Carolina
South Dakota
Tennessee
Texas
Utah
Vermont
Virginia
Washington
West Virginia
Wisconsin
Wyoming

2.20
0.10
9.80
9.40
8.50
0.10
5.10
5.70
0.50
4.90
1.50

4.02
1.38
2.52
1.80
1.63
8.69
1.84
2.92
1.05
12.50
0.96

24%
18%
27%
29%
25%
15%
21%
22%
21%
21%
23%

4.93
4.53
4.37
4.20
5.20
4.77
8.38
6.58
4.34
4.83
5.06

predictors)
Home Ownership
rates (%) 2005
Homeownership
76.6
66.0
71.1
69.2
59.7
71.0
70.5
75.8
72.4
67.9
59.8
74.2
70.9
75.0
73.9
69.5
71.6
72.5
73.9
71.2
63.4
76.4
76.5
78.8
72.3
70.4
70.2
63.4
74.0
70.1
71.4
55.9
70.9
68.5
73.3
72.9
68.2
73.3
63.1

Period Ended Dec 06

Average 5Yr home
price appreciation
5YrApp
32.51
53.91
96.55
32.62
105.80
22.24
57.96
70.83
106.90
28.02
108.52
61.54
42.36
16.98
23.59
24.64
24.62
41.22
59.60
99.86
48.75
16.15
41.91
31.12
33.11
62.15
20.31
99.35
54.10
78.52
55.63
67.34
30.90
39.15
16.53
26.00
68.91
55.32
83.08

2007 Unemployment
rate percent change
UnempChange
0.00%
-4.62%
-7.32%
1.89%
10.20%
-11.63%
4.55%
-2.86%
17.65%
-4.35%
4.00%
-15.63%
8.70%
-8.16%
0.00%
-4.65%
-5.17%
-2.56%
2.17%
-5.26%
-6.25%
4.35%
15.00%
-5.97%
4.17%
-6.06%
0.00%
14.29%
2.86%
-10.64%
-18.60%
-2.17%
0.00%
0.00%
3.70%
4.88%
-3.70%
-4.35%
-1.96%

% of housing that
was moved into in
2000-2005
%HousMoved
0.448
0.426
0.383
0.419
0.361
0.376
0.406
0.448
0.348
0.38
0.474
0.413
0.39
0.393
0.442
0.475
0.449
0.494
0.528
0.407
0.411
0.353
0.422
0.5
0.399
0.45
0.432
0.335
0.472
0.401
0.441
0.426
0.411
0.502
0.378
0.418
0.414
0.448
0.441

LearningStats
Copyright 2011
by
The McGraw-Hill Companies
This spreadsheet is intended solely for educational
purposes by licensed users ofLearningStats. It
may not be copied or resold for profit.

73.9
68.4
72.4
65.9
73.9
74.2
71.2
67.6
81.3
71.1
72.8

33.86
33.65
30.32
24.18
43.93
63.02
80.60
66.13
35.82
36.37
62.56

-7.81%
-3.23%
-7.84%
-12.24%
-10.00%
5.41%
0.00%
-8.16%
-2.13%
4.26%
-9.09%

0.462
0.548
0.396
0.398
0.404
0.587
0.422
0.414
0.502
0.428
0.498

Residual
Total

Intercept
MassLayoff

Variable
Foreclosure
MassLayoff
SubprimeShare
PriceIncomeRatio
Homeownership
5YrApp
UnempChange
%HousMoved

Definition
2007 foreclosure Rates (per 1,000)
mass layoff events per 100,000 people
share of new mortgages that were subprime in 2005
average home prices to median household income ratio
home ownership rates (%) 2005
period ended Dec 06 average 5Yr home price appreciation
2007 unemployment rate percent change
% of housing that was moved into in 2000-2005

LearningStats
Copyright 2011
by
The McGraw-Hill Companies
This spreadsheet is intended solely for educational
purposes by licensed users ofLearningStats. It
may not be copied or resold for profit.

SUMMARY OUTPUT
Regression Statistics
Multiple R
R Square
Adjusted R Square
Standard Error
Observations

0.859760753
0.739188553
0.695719978
3.731914187
50

ANOVA
df
Regression
Residual
Total

7
42
49

SS
1657.834493
584.9417069
2242.7762

51.2828947
0.075096068
18.53845281

Standard Error
13.80990796
0.205593045
17.77847937

Coefficients
Intercept
MassLayoff
SubprimeShare

PriceIncomeRatio
Homeownership
5YrApp
UnempChange
%HousMoved

-0.696538995
-0.058684703
0.044091884
16.46180685
-99.24332783

0.743812402
0.130863465
0.034344058
7.722331409
14.35882052

y 0 1x1 2 x2 3 x3
SUMMARY OUTPUT
Regression Statistics
Multiple R
R Square
Adjusted R Square
Standard Error
Observations

0.187031946
0.034980949
0.014876385
6.714911517
50

ANOVA
df
Regression
Residual
Total

1
48
49

SS
78.45443962
2164.32176
2242.7762

5.216577881
0.460440267

Standard Error
1.731242572
0.349063813

Coefficients
Intercept
MassLayoff

MS
236.833499
13.9271835

F
Significance F
17.0051252
0.00

t Stat
3.713485625
0.365265607
1.042746819

P-value
Lower 95%
0.000596432 23.41337245
0.716746236 -0.339807489
0.303030696 -17.33997069

Upper 95% Lower 95.0% Upper 95.0%

79.15241695 23.413372 79.152417
0.489999626 -0.3398075 0.4899996
54.4168763 -17.339971 54.416876

-0.936444449
-0.448442223
1.283828576
2.131714631
-6.911662953

0.35439807
0.656139141
0.206239634
0.038924357
0.00

-2.197613175 0.804535186
-0.322777865 0.205408459
-0.025217231 0.113400998
0.877511316 32.04610239
-128.2206005 -70.26605521

-2.1976132 0.8045352
-0.3227779 0.2054085
-0.0252172
0.113401
0.8775113 32.046102
-128.2206 -70.266055

2 x2 3 x3 4 x4 5 x5 6 x6 7 x7

MS
78.45443962
45.09003667

F
Significance F
1.739950672 0.193403394

t Stat
3.013198708
1.319071898

P-value
Lower 95%
0.004118797 1.735681453
0.193403394 -0.241399556

Upper 95% Lower 95.0% Upper 95.0%

8.697474308 1.7356815 8.6974743
1.16228009 -0.2413996 1.1622801