Forecast 2012 ISSUE 2

Forecast
Tourism Forecasting Committee
2012 Issue 2

Authors
Tourism Research Australia: Tim Quinn, Dr George Chen, Dr Ben Pang

Other Contributors
Tourism Forecasting Committee, Tourism Forecasting Committee Technical Committee, industry sources
(various)

ISBN 978-1-922106-00-1

Tourism Research Australia

Department of Resources, Energy and Tourism
GPO Box 1564
Canberra ACT 2601
ABN 46 252 861 927
Email: tourism.research@ret.gov.au
Web: www.ret.gov.au/tra
Image: Hot air balloons, Victoria
Courtesy of Global Ballooning
Publication date: October 2012

This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 Australia licence. To the
extent that copyright subsists in third party quotes and diagrams it remains with the
original owner and permission may be required to reuse the material.
This work should be attributed as Tourism Forecasting Committee, Forecast 2012 Issue 2, Tourism Research
Australia, Canberra.
Enquiries regarding the licence and any use of work by Tourism Research Australia are welcome at
tourism.research@ret.gov.au

ii

Contents
Background ............................................................................................................................................iv
Methodology ........................................................................................................................................... v
Executive summary ................................................................................................................................ 1
Drivers of tourism forecasts .................................................................................................................... 4
Comparison of 2011-12 tourism forecasts with actual visitation

..................................................... 7

The TFCs long-term forecasting performance....................................................................................... 8

Domestic and outbound tourism forecasts ............................................................................................. 9
Inbound tourism forecasts .................................................................................................................... 12

Tables
Table 1

TFC Forecast summary ...................................................................................................... 2

Table 2

Domestic tourism .............................................................................................................. 14

Table 3

Domestic visitor nights in hotels, motels, guesthouses and serviced apartments ............ 15

Table 4

Short-term resident departures by market, financial year ................................................. 16

Table 5

International visitor arrivals by market, financial year ....................................................... 17

Table 6

International visitor arrivals by purpose of visit, financial year .......................................... 18

Table 7

International leisure visitor arrivals by market, financial year ........................................... 19

Table 8

International visitor nights by market, financial year ......................................................... 20

Table 9

International visitor nights in hotels, motels, guesthouses & serviced apartments

by market, financial year ................................................................................................... 21

Table 10

International leisure visitor nights by market, financial year ............................................. 22

Table 11

Total inbound tourism expenditure by market, financial year

(real, base = Quarter 2 2012, $ million) ............................................................................ 23

Table 12

Total leisure inbound tourism expenditure by market, financial year

(real, base = Quarter 2 2012, $ million) ............................................................................ 24

Figures
Figure 1

Domestic visitor nights total: forecast comparison.............................................................. 9

Figure 2

Outbound trips total: forecast comparison ........................................................................ 11

Figure 3

Inbound trips total: forecast comparison ........................................................................... 12

iii

Background
Tourism Forecasting Committee (TFC)
The TFC was established in 2004 following the implementation of the Tourism White Paper.
Like its predecessor, the Tourism Forecasting Council, the TFC is an independent body
charged with providing present and potential tourism investors, industry and government
with consensus forecasts of activity across international, domestic and outbound tourism
sectors. Tourism Research Australia (TRA) provides modelling, analytical, and secretariat
support for the TFC.
Chaired by Bernard Salt (KPMG), the TFC's membership draws on the combined expertise
of the private and public sectors in the tourism and financial industries. The TFC is
supported by a technical committee that also has a mixture of private and public sector
representation and relevant experience to inform decision making.
The Tourism Forecasting Committee
Bernard Salt (Chair)
Andrew McEvoy
Daniel Gschwind
John Lee
Ivan Colhoun
Jane Madden
Felicia Mariani
CEO, Tourism Queensland (tbc)
Tony Webber
Leo Jago

KPMG
Tourism Australia
Queensland Tourism Industry Council
Tourism & Transport Forum
ANZ Bank
Department of Resources, Energy and Tourism
Australian Tourism Export Council
Australian Standing Committee on Tourism
Webber Quantitative Consulting
Tourism Research Australia

The Tourism Forecasting Committee Technical Committee

Leo Jago (Chair)
Adele Labine-Romain
Ernst Krolke
Jeff Oughton
Karen Wales
Nell Anderson
Robert Boyd
Karen McGuigan
Tim Quinn
George Chen
Ben Pang

Tourism Research Australia

Tourism & Transport Forum
Airport Coordination Australia
Economic Consultant
Jones Lang LaSalle Hotels
Tourism Australia
Virgin Australia
Department of Immigration and Citizenship
Tourism Research Australia
Tourism Research Australia
Tourism Research Australia
iv

Methodology
Forecasting process
The TFC forecasts represent the most likely outcome given past trends, current information
and the impact of policy and industry changes. Therefore, it is important to note that the TFC
produces forecasts as distinct from targets where the latter are developed for the purposes
of business planning and performance management. The TFC forecasts for domestic,
outbound and inbound travel volumes and expenditures are developed using an iterative
process.
The first iteration involves the TRA Forecasting Unit to estimate activity and expenditure
using a combination of econometric and time series models. These models provide forecasts
based on aviation capacity, price, income and seasonality as well as significant events
affecting source markets.
The second iteration involves a sub-committee (the TFC Technical Committee) made up of
senior researchers and economists as well as independent advisors reviewing the
model-based forecasts and applying qualitative adjustments.
The final iteration involves industry and government experts (the TFC) adjusting the
forecasts by consensus.
Methodological changes
TRA has undertaken a major methodological review of its National Visitor Survey (NVS) and
International Visitor Survey (IVS). The review has resulted in changes to many tourism
region boundaries and the reweighting of individual categories (notably education and
employment). The revisions have led to the re-estimation of the historical data on total
expenditure (IVS and NVS combined) and changes across inbound expenditure and
domestic expenditure. The methodological review has also resulted in significant upward
revisions to the base of domestic volumes and expenditure.
Due to these methodological changes and in line with adjustment of historical data, from this
forecasting round and onwards, Total Domestic Economic Value (TDEV), Total Inbound
Economic Value (TIEV) and Total Tourism Consumption have been replaced by Total
Domestic Tourism Expenditure (TDTE), Total Inbound Tourism Expenditure (TITE) and
Total Tourism Expenditure respectively.
The TDTE and TITE expenditure series, historical and forecast, are consistent in scope with
TRAs: i) IVS total trip expenditure series which includes prepaid international airfare and
package; and; ii) the NVS expenditure series total trip expenditure excluding motor vehicles.

Forecasts purpose classification

The definition of 'holiday' travel for inbound and outbound forecasts series was updated in
Forecast 2012, Issue 1. Previously, travel reported as 'other', 'transit' or 'not stated' was
included as components of holiday. Based on detailed analysis, travel reported as 'other'
and 'transit' is now combined with education and employment in a broader 'other' purpose
category. 'Not stated' travel is included in inbound and outbound totals only (i.e. it is not
categorised to a specific purpose category such as holiday or distributed across purpose
categories). As a result, inbound and outbound historical estimates and forecasts for
'holiday' (and leisure) in the following editions of the forecasts will appear lower, and
equivalent figures for 'other' travel will appear higher than in previous forecast issues.
The definition of 'holiday' travel in the domestic forecast series has also been revisedit has
been extended to include nights spent away on long trips where the purpose of visit to each
stopover is not established. Previously, these visitor nights had been classified as 'other' but
examination has determined that this is predominantly holiday travel. As a result, historical
estimates and forecasts for 'holiday' in this edition of the forecasts will appear slightly higher
and those for 'other' will appear slightly lower than in previous forecast issues.
Forecasts by inbound market
Forecast 2011, Issue 2 outlined the rationalisation for the number of inbound markets for
which forecasts are produced. Reflecting this, Italy, Netherlands, Switzerland and Nordic
countries have been folded into 'Other Europe' and Taiwan into 'Other Asia' in this edition of
the forecasts. This has enabled greater focus to be put into ensuring the robustness of
forecasts for the leading inbound markets.
Main data sources
Asia-Pacific Consensus Forecasts (2012) August Issue, Consensus Economics Inc
Australian Bureau of Statistics, various statistical publications
Bureau of Infrastructure, Transport and Regional Economics (BITRE)
-

Domestic airline activity June 2012

International airline activity June 2012

Commonwealth Treasury
-

Budget Paper No. 1, Statement 2: Economic Outlook, various issues

Mid- year Economic and Fiscal Outlook, various issues

Consensus Forecasts (2012) August Issue, Consensus Economics Inc

Deloitte Access Economics (2012) Tourism and Hotel Market Outlook, Q2, 2012, Canberra

vi

Department of Resources, Energy and Tourism (2009) National Long-Term Tourism

Strategy, Canberra
Ewing, R Gruen D and Hawkins J (2005) Forecasting the Macroeconomy,
Economic Roundup, Autumn issue, the Commonwealth Treasury, Canberra
Foreign Exchange Consensus Forecasts (2012), August Issue, Consensus Economics Inc
Hawkins J. (2005) Economic Forecasting: History and Procedures, Economic Roundup,
Autumn issue, the Commonwealth Treasury, Canberra
Tourism Forecasting Committee (TFC), Forecast, various issues, Tourism Research
Australia, Canberra
Tourism Research Australia (TRA)
-

International Visitors in Australia: June 2012 Quarterly Results of the International

Visitor Survey

Travel by Australians June 2012 Quarterly Results of the National Visitor Survey

State of the Industry 2011

Tourism Investment Monitor 2012

vii

Executive summary
The world economy has continued to struggle on a slow track since the release of the last
forecast issue in April 2012. Unevenness in global economic activity remains. Growth in
emerging economies such as China and India continues to occur at a faster rate than
advanced economies. However, uncertainty about the sustainability of the economic growth
remains as both economies have slowed down. There are encouraging signs that prospects
for the US economy have improved, but concerns regarding the Euro zone debt crisis have
led to significant market volatility and declines in business and consumer confidence.
Reflecting the current uncertainty, economic growth forecasts have been revised downward
for many economies worldwide for 2012 and 2013.
For Australia, the domestic economy remains solid compared with those of many developed
countries across the world but unevenness in economic activity remains. The resources
sector continues to grow while manufacturing and many service industries (including
tourism) struggle due to the continued global uncertainty and a high exchange rate.
Against this background, marginal changes have been made to the previous (April 2012) set
of forecasts for inbound tourists and outbound departures in this updating round. However,
forecasts for domestic tourism have been revised upward. Over the longer term, average
annual growth for domestic visitor nights (0.8 per cent) now fall marginally below population
growth, whereas previous forecasts (0.5 per cent) were almost half that of population growth.

Key messages (refer Table 1)

Total Domestic Tourism Expenditure (TDTE)1 and Total Inbound Tourism Expenditure
(TITE) will grow at different speeds in the short term
With strong growth in domestic day travel and resilience in overnight travel, total
domestic tourism expenditure (which captures expenditure from each of these
segments) is forecast to increase by 1.8 per cent to $70 billion in 201213, and by a
further 1.2 per cent to $71 billion in 201314.
Total inbound tourism expenditure is expected to increase 2.8 per cent to $28 billion in
201213, and then by 4.0 per cent to $29 billion in 201314.
In the longer term, domestic expenditure is now expected to record average annual
growth of 0.7 per cent to reach $74 billion by 202122. Inbound expenditure is forecast
to grow at the faster average annual rate of 3.8 per cent, to reach $39 billion in
2021-22.

The measures of total tourism expenditure, total domestic expenditure and total inbound expenditure are presented in real
terms in this publication. As a result, all historical estimates and forecasts to 202122 are shown in June 2012 dollars. To
enable comparison of growth rates, forecasts from Forecast 2012, Issue 1 have been adjusted to report on a financial year
basis.

Total tourism expenditure is forecast to increase by 2.1 per cent to $97 billion in
2012-13, and then by a further 2.0 per cent to $99 billion in 201314.
In the longer term, total tourism expenditure is forecast to reach $112 billion in 202122
underpinned by average annual growth of 1.6 per cent.
Table 1

TFC Forecast summary

Inbound Change on
visitor
previous
arrivals
year
'000
per cent

2000-01
2001-02
2002-03
2003-04
2004-05
2005-06
2006-07
2007-08
2008-09
2009-10
2010-11
2011-12
2012-13
2013-14
2014-15
2015-16
2016-17
2017-18
2018-19
2019-20
2020-21
2021-22
Compound annual
growth rate (%)
2001/02-2006/07
2006/07-2011/12
2011/12-2016/17
2016/17-2021/22
2001/02-2011/12
2011/12-2021/22

Domestic Change on
visitor
previous
nights
year
million
per cent

Outbound Change on
depart.
previous
year
'000
per cent

TITE Change on
(real)
previous
year
$billion
per cent

TDTE Change on Expenditure Change on

(real)
previous
(real)
previous
year
year
$billion
per cent
$billion
per cent

5 031
4 768
4 656
5 057
5 408
5 484
5 641
5 629
5 541
5 692
5 907
5 981
6 118
6 344
6 612
6 864
7 098
7 322
7 541
7 761
7 982
8 208

n.a.
- 5.2
- 2.4
8.6
6.9
1.4
2.9
- 0.2
- 1.6
2.7
3.8
1.2
2.3
3.7
4.2
3.8
3.4
3.1
3.0
2.9
2.9
2.8

291.6
288.7
302.3
295.9
289.7
280.4
289.1
285.5
263.4
264.3
266.2
284.0
290.0
294.0
296.6
299.0
300.8
302.4
304.0
305.5
306.9
308.4

n.a.
- 1.0
4.7
- 2.1
- 2.1
- 3.2
3.1
- 1.3
- 7.7
0.3
0.7
6.7
2.1
1.4
0.9
0.8
0.6
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5

3 577
3 368
3 293
3 937
4 591
4 835
5 127
5 699
5 843
6 770
7 443
8 037
8 591
9 025
9 425
9 777
10 099
10 414
10 720
11 016
11 301
11 591

n.a.
- 5.9
- 2.2
19.5
16.6
5.3
6.0
11.2
2.5
15.9
9.9
8.0
6.9
5.1
4.4
3.7
3.3
3.1
2.9
2.8
2.6
2.6

28.6
27.7
25.8
25.7
25.7
26.7
27.3
28.6
29.3
26.8
27.0
26.8
27.5
28.6
30.0
31.2
32.4
33.6
34.9
36.1
37.4
38.7

n.a.
- 3.4
- 6.6
- 0.4
- 0.2
4.0
2.2
4.9
2.4
- 8.6
0.8
- 0.9
2.8
4.0
4.7
4.2
3.9
3.7
3.6
3.6
3.5
3.5

69.4
66.4
68.4
64.9
64.1
65.8
68.4
69.3
65.1
65.7
63.5
68.6
69.9
70.7
71.2
71.8
72.1
72.4
72.7
73.0
73.3
73.5

n.a.
- 4.2
2.9
- 5.0
- 1.2
2.6
3.9
1.3
- 6.0
0.9
- 3.5
8.2
1.8
1.2
0.8
0.7
0.5
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.3

98.0
94.1
94.2
90.7
89.8
92.5
95.7
97.9
94.4
92.5
90.5
95.4
97.4
99.3
101.2
103.0
104.5
106.0
107.5
109.1
110.6
112.2

n.a.
- 4.0
0.1
- 3.7
- 0.9
3.0
3.4
2.3
- 3.6
- 2.0
- 2.2
5.5
2.1
2.0
1.9
1.7
1.5
1.4
1.4
1.4
1.5
1.4

3.4
1.2
3.5
2.9

0.3
-0.1
1.8
1.4

0.6
0.1
1.0
0.4

-0.3
-0.4
3.9
3.6

8.8
9.4
4.7
2.8

0.0
-0.4
1.2
0.5

2.3
3.2

-0.2
0.8

9.1
3.7

-0.3
3.8

0.3
0.7

0.1
1.6

Numbers shaded are forecasts.

Total Inbound Tourism Expenditure (TIDE) including prepaid international airfare and package (real, Base = Q2 2012)
b
Total Domestic Tourism Expenditure (TDTE) including the expenditure in domestic day trip and overnight trip (real base = Quarter 2 2012)

Expenditure refers to total expenditure made in Australia by international short term visitor arrivals and Australian resident tourists. It is the sum of real TITE and real TDTE (Q2
2012=100)

Domestic visitor nights to grow moderately in the short and medium term
Domestic visitor nights are forecast to increase by 2.1 per cent to 290 million in
2012-13, and then by a further 1.4 per cent to 294 million in 201314. This represents
an upward revision from the growth previously forecast (0.7 per cent and 0.6 per cent
for 201213 and 201314, respectively). The brighter short-term outlook is linked to
stronger than previously expected growth in the business and visiting friends and
relatives (VFR) sectors.
The longer-term average annual rate of growth has also been revised up from
0.5 per cent to 0.8 per cent. Domestic visitor nights are now forecast to reach
308 million by 202122.

Outbound resident departures to stay at high levels in the near future

Australian resident outbound departures are forecast to grow by 6.9 per cent to
8.6 million in 201213, and then by a further 5.1 per cent to 9.0 million in 201314. This
growth is marginally higher than previously forecast largely due to higher than expected
201112 departures (compared to the previous forecast).
The longer-term outlook for outbound travel is for growth of 3.7 per cent with
departures reaching 11.6 million by 202122.
Inbound arrivals to grow moderately
Inbound visitor arrivals are forecast to increase by 2.3 per cent to reach 6.1 million in
201213, and then by a further 3.7 per cent to 6.3 million in 201314 (down from the
3.0 per cent and 4.2 per cent growth previously expected in each year).
The downward revisions are largely due to the weaker than expected GDP growth in
2011 and the lower expectations of economic growth in 2012 and 2013 in New Zealand
and China.
Upward revisions in 201213 for both the United States (from 1.3 per cent to
1.5 per cent) and Japan (from 0.4 per cent to 1.7 per cent) are a result of both higher
than expected 201112 arrival figures and an expected continued path to economic
recovery.
China (11.9 per cent then 9.3 per cent) and Indonesia (5.2 per cent then 7.9 per cent)
are among the markets expected to experience strongest growth in 201213 and
201314.
By purpose, business and other travel (which includes the fast growing employment
segment) are projected to contribute most to visitor arrival growth in 201213 and
201314.
Strong growth from Asia is expected to be particularly important to the performance of
the inbound tourism sector in the short and longer term. Asia is expected to increase by
4.5 per cent to 2.6 million in 201213, and by a further 5.5 per cent to 2.7 million in
201314. In contrast, combined inbound arrivals from elsewhere in the world are
expected to increase by 0.7 per cent in 201213, and then by a further 2.4 per cent in
201314 to reach 3.6 million in 201314. Asia's share of inbound arrivals is expected to
have increased from 42 per cent to 45 per cent by 202122.
The long-term outlook will approximate the previous forecast, with average annual
growth expected to be 3.2 per cent, and inbound arrivals to reach 8.2 million by
2021-22.

Drivers of tourism forecasts

The global economy remains fragile
The international macroeconomic environment for the TFC forecasts has not improved much
since the Forecast 2012, Issue 1 released in April 2012. In fact, some regions have gone
backward and, in others, recovery has been delayed.
Latest forecasts from Consensus Economics expect the world economy to grow by
2.6 per cent and 2.9 per cent in 2012 and 2013 respectively, slightly lower than expected
earlier this year. Moreover, top-line forecasts masked the unevenness in global economic
activity with the world economic growth being largely driven by emerging economies like
China and India, while most of the developed economies remain in the doldrums.
In Europe, concerns about the Euro zone sovereign debt crisisespecially the fiscal debt
levels of economies such as Greece, Italy and Spainhave caused significant market
volatility. These concerns have also impacted on the stronger performing European
economies, such as Germany and France, resulting in substantial growth markdowns for
2012. The Euro zone economy is expected to remain relatively flat over the next two years,
forecast to contract 0.5 per cent in 2012 before increasing a marginal 0.3 per cent in 2013.
The short-term economic outlook for the United Kingdom has continued to deteriorate;
economic growth forecasts have been revised downward from the previously forecast
0.6 per cent growth to contract by 0.2 per cent in 2012, and from 1.6 per cent to 1.4 per cent
in 2013. Fiscal consolidations in the UK and the Euro zone countries will tend to increase
taxes and reduce government spending and social benefits, resulting in a decline in
consumers discretionary expenditure on items such as tourism.
In the United States, however, there are encouraging signs that the short-term economic
outlook has improved since the last forecast round. This is evidenced by the stabilising of
housing and job markets an improvement in consumer and business confidence.
In the Asia-Pacific region, there have been minor downward revisions to the growth
expected for the rapidly expanding larger developing economies of China and India, while
upward revisions have been made to Japan for 2012. In China, the moderation in
expectation of economic growth from 8.4 per cent to 7.9 per cent for 2012 can be attributed
to the impact of the Euro zone debt crisis on its export-led industry sectors and managed
deceleration in investment growth to cool down the overheated housing market. A softening
in demand has reduced inflationary pressure, leaving the Peoples Bank of China some
scope to further ease monetary policy in late 2012 and 2013 if required. This containment of
inflation also allows the Chinese government to introduce stimulatory measures to spur
economic growth in the years to come.
Reflecting the above-mentioned outlook, it is expected that most growth in inbound tourism
demand to Australia in 201213 and 201314 will continue to come from Asia and slowly
pick up from North America. In contrast, near-term prospects for visitor arrivals from Europe
remain pessimistic.

Australia's economic prospects remain solid but downside risk has increased
Although the Australian economy is not immune from the downturns in the rest of the world,
its economic prospects remain solid compared with those of many developed economies.
According to Consensus Economics, Australian GDP is forecast to grow by a solid
3.4 per cent in 2012 and 3.1 per cent in 2013 with the Australian dollar averaging US$1.03 in
2012 and $US1.00 in 2013.
Assisting the recent robust economic performance of the Australian economy were two
consecutive cash rate reductions by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) in late 2011 and
again in May 2012. These are likely to have assisted lifting consumer and business
confidence. The RBA move may have also partly led to the stronger-than-expected
economic growth in the first half of 2012 and an increase in discretionary spending, resulting
in higher than expected increases in domestic visitor nights in recent quarters.
However, it should be noted that Australias economy remains relatively uneven. The
resources sector continues to grow strongly providing benefit to Western Australia and
Queensland. Meanwhile, manufacturing and many service industries are struggling under
the weight of global uncertainty, a high exchange rate and recent moves by households to
rein in spending.

Aviation capacity is increasing

The world air travel market has continued to rebound over the past two to three years from
the sharp recession in 2008 and 2009. According to the International Air Transport
Association (IATA), worldwide international and domestic passenger traffic grew 5.9 per cent
to a new high of 5.2 trillion kilometres in 2011. This has compared favourably to trend growth
of 4 per cent to 5 per cent over the past 20 to 30 years (although the growth has slowed
down since early 2012 due to the persistent European economic woes and sapping
consumer confidence).
The first six months of 2012 saw international seat capacities grow 4.9 per cent compared
with the same period in the previous year. The increase in aviation capacity was evident for
carriers from all regions with the strongest performance for airlines in the Middle East
(12.9 per cent), Africa (9.7 per cent) and Latin America (8.2 per cent). Moderate growth
occurred for the Asia-Pacific region (4.5 per cent) and Europe (3.8 per cent).
In line with the global trend, international seat capacity to Australia increased almost
4.0 per cent in 201112 with all major markets recording growth. The strongest growth was
provided by Low Cost Carriers (LCC) from Asian markets. Despite increasing oil prices and
political unrest in the Middle East, the short-term outlook remains positive for air capacity to
Australia in 201213. Overall, capacity is expected to increase by 5.0 per cent to 20 million
seats in 201213, and then by a further 5.0 per cent to 21.1 million in 201314.
In 201213 and 201314, strongest growth is expected from the Middle East (21 per cent,
then 18.0 per cent), China (15.1 per cent, then 11.1 per cent), Singapore (13.5 per cent, then
5.1 per cent) and Malaysia (12.0 per cent, then 4.4 per cent). Modest growth is forecast for
New Zealand, the United States, Japan and South Korea.

The United Kingdom is the only major market for which seat capacity is forecast to decline
over 201213 and 201314; largely due to British Airways increasing flights to Asian hubs
while reducing direct flights to Australia. On the domestic scene, aviation seat capacity
recorded a modest 1.7 per cent growth in 201112. Domestic aviation capacity is forecast to
rebound vigorously by 9.0 per cent in 201213. Contributing to the surge in 201213 are the
increased seat capacities by domestic airlines including Qantas and Virgin Australia and, to
some extent, due to Tiger Airways resuming flights.
Despite the increased passenger demand, most airlines in the world are struggling to make
significant profits. In the medium to long term, any persistence in high world oil prices and
continued economic weakness pose a downside risk to the financial performance of airlines.
This has the effect of weakening international and domestic aviation capacity, and
consequently flows on to tourism. Under such circumstances, those airlines with limited
government support and/or capability to hedge against higher jet fuel costs on financial
markets would be particularly exposed. These airlines could respond with higher fuel
surcharges and/or ticket prices. However, airlines that concentrate on very competitive
routes could find it harder to pass on the costs to passengers through surcharges.

Accommodation: growth in supply flat with yields rising

Accommodation is an important part of the tourism supply chain. Increases in prices for
accommodation affect consumers travel decisions, and can lead to consumers choosing
other activities over travel. However, competitive domestic accommodation prices often lead
to consumers choosing to travel within Australia rather than overseas.
Key supply and demand indicators for the year ending June 2012 (compared to the year
ending June 2011) showed that the demand for tourist accommodation in Australia
increased. The number of room nights occupied was up by 2.0 per cent to 54 million nights,
and takings from accommodation were up by 5.5 per cent in nominal terms (or 3.2 per cent
in real terms) to $8.8 billion.
The supply of tourist accommodation in Australia remained relatively flat in the year ending
June 2012 (compared to the same period in 2011). The number of rooms available was up
by 0.3 per cent (or 600 rooms) to 227,200. Combining the results for supply and demand
suggests that yields per room night available increased by 2.8 per cent to $100 (in real
terms).
Looking ahead, Deloitte Access Economics Hotel Outlook expects room occupancy rates to
increase from 65 per cent to 68 per cent by 2014. Further, analysis by TRA shows that room
stock is forecast to grow 2 per cent to 2016 in the ten major domestic markets, and
0.7 per cent in regional areas, resulting in growth in stock of around 17,200 rooms.

Comparison of 201112 tourism forecasts with

actual visitation
The forecast for domestic travel: above projections
Domestic travel activity recorded strong growth in 201112; buoyed by the solid growth in
business and VFR travel. During the year, Australians took 75 million overnight trips (up
5.8 per cent); spent 284 million visitor nights away (up 6.7 per cent); and grossed $69 billion
in domestic expenditure (up 8.2 per cent).
The 6.7 per cent growth of domestic visitor nights in 201112 was well above the previously
forecast 1.5 per cent growth. Contributing to this higher than expected growth was the state
of the economy (especially in the second half of the financial year), two consecutive interest
rate reductions in late 2011 and a further cut in May 2012, as well as the continued low
unemployment rate.

The forecast for outbound travel: on track

Solid domestic economic growth and a higher exchange rate (between the Australian dollar
and most international currencies) continued to appeal to Australians in 201112. There
were more than 8 million outbound resident departures for the year, an increase of
8.0 per cent on the previous year. Overall, the actual growth rate was marginally higher than
the forecast growth rate (7.8 per cent).
By purpose, business and holiday visits (2.0 per cent and 10.1 per cent growth) were very
close to the forecast growth rates (2.1 per cent and 10.3 per cent), while VFR overshot
expectations (actual growth 7.6 per cent versus forecast 5.8 per cent). Other (excluding not
stated) was less than expected (actual 3.6 per cent versus forecast 5.4 per cent).
By market, departures to New Zealand, the United States, Indonesia and Thailand were
relatively accurate. Departures to the United Kingdom were below forecast (actual
2.1 per cent versus forecast 4.9 per cent).

The forecast for inbound travel: on track

In 201112, short-term visitor arrivals to Australia increased by 1.2 per cent to 6.0 million,
which was marginally higher than the forecast 1.0 per cent growth.
Visitor arrivals from a number of countries including the United Kingdom, China, Germany,
India and Ireland were broadly in line with forecasts, while arrivals from New Zealand,
Japan, United States and South Korea were higher than forecast.

The TFCs long-term forecasting performance

TRA has undertaken a comprehensive assessment of the performance of the TFC tourism
forecasts. This section provides both a summary of the tourism forecast performance as well
as a summary of the performance of TFC forecasts compared with the forecasts of another
Australian Government agency, The Treasury.
The review and analysis of TFCs forecasting performance is based on the available
historical forecast data (20052011) for the majority of key forecasts. This included:
International arrivals (Australian Bureau of Statistics, or ABS)
International nights (TRA)
Outbound departures (ABS)
Domestic visitor nights (TRA)
Total Domestic Economic Value (TDEV) (TRA)
Total International Economic Value (TIEV) (TRA)
Analysis of the TFC forecasts shows that:
International Arrivals and Domestic Visitor Nights were, on average, forecast more
accurately than other indicators. International arrivals were usually overestimated
while Domestic Visitor Nights were usually underestimated.
The overestimation of International Arrivals was mainly due to the error in forecasting
the holiday sector and the variability in two source countries, namely the United
Kingdom and Japan.
The underestimation of Domestic Visitor Nights was largely due to the
underestimation in the holiday sector and overestimation of the business sector.
The forecasting accuracy of TDEV and TIEV was affected by the conversion from
nominal to real values.
When comparing the accuracy of TFC forecasts to Treasury forecasts, both sets of
forecasts [of domestic indicators] appeared to be more accurate than that of
international indicators.
The accuracy of the TFC forecasts was close to those of the Treasury
macroeconomic indicators in the short to medium term.
The accuracy of short and medium-term forecasts (6 to 12 months ahead) was
higher than those of long-term forecasts (24 months or longer ahead).
The accuracy of forecasts usually depends on the frequency of updating the
forecasting models. The indicators of accuracy vary at intervals of 6, 12, 24 and
36 months (the more often new information is incorporated into the model, the better
the forecast value that will be achieved).

Domestic and outbound tourism forecasts

Prospects for domestic tourism have improved
Over the last three financial years, domestic travel has shown signs of resilience in the face
of many challenges including the higher Australian dollar, lower consumer discretionary
spending and natural disasters, such as cyclones and floods. The domestic visitor nights in
201112 grew by 6.7 per cent, well above the previously forecast 1.5 per cent.
Contributing to the higher than expected growth of domestic visitor nights for 201112 were
the higher than expected GDP growth (especially in the second half of the financial year);
two consecutive interest rate reductions in late 2011 and a further cut in May 2012; as well
as the persistent low unemployment rate. The marketing activities by government tourism
promoting agencies at various levels may also have contributed to the solid growth of
domestic tourism.
It is anticipated that this momentum will continue in 201213 and the year that follows.
Domestic Visitor Nights are forecast to increase by 2.1 per cent to 290 million in 201213,
and then by a further 1.4 per cent to 294 million in 201314. This compares to the previous
forecast of 0.7 per cent in 201213 and 0.6 per cent 201314 (refer Figure 1).
Figure 1: Domestic visitor nights forecast comparison
320

310

6
4

300

Visitor nights (m)

0
280
-2
270

Change (%)

290

-4

260

-6

250

-8

240

-10

Chg (2012#1)

Chg (2012#2)

2012#1

2012#2

Source: Tourism Research Australia National Visitor Survey, 2012; Tourism Forecasting Committee Forecast 2012 Issue 2,
Tourism Research Australia

The brighter short-term outlook is linked to stronger growth in travel to visit friends and
relatives (VFR) than previously expected and some shift away from outbound travel.
The longer-term annual average rate of growth for domestic visitor nights is projected to
grow modestly at 0.8 per cent throughout the period to 202122. Domestic visitor nights are
now expected to reach 308 million by 202122. This rate of growth is marginally below the
ABS estimate for population growth.
While overall the short-term and, to a lesser extent, long-term prospects for domestic visitor
nights have improved, there is still expected to be variability between different areas of
Australia. These differences will be examined in the TFC regional forecasts to be released
within four weeks of this publication.
On the expenditure side, Total Domestic Tourism Expenditure (TDTE)2 is forecast to
increase by 1.8 per cent to $70 billion in 201213, then by a further 1.2 per cent increase to
$71 billion in 201314. In the longer term, domestic tourism expenditure is expected to
record annual average growth of 0.7 per cent and reach $74 billion by 202122.

Outbound departures expected to stay at high levels

Total outbound departures are forecast to continue to record solid growth in future years.
While the forecast growth rate of outbound departures has been revised up to 6.9 per cent
and 5.1 per cent for 201213 and 201314 respectively, from the previously forecast
6.6 per cent and 4.9 per cent in each year it does represent a slowing in growth
(refer Figure 2).
Driving the forecasts are the assumed solid consumer economy, sustained high value of the
Australian dollar and continued expansion in aviation capacity to many key leisure outbound
markets. In the longer term, the annual average growth for outbound resident departures is
now expected to be 3.7 per cent with departures reaching 11.6 million by 202122.

The measures of Total Tourism Expenditure, TDTE and TITE are presented in real terms in
this publication. All historical estimates and forecasts to 202122 for these measures are
based on June 2012 dollars.
10

Figure 2: Short-term resident departures forecast comparison

12 000

25

20

10 000

15

10

6 000
5

4 000
0
2 000

-5

-10

Series3

Chg (2012#2)

2012#1

2012#2

Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics Overseas Arrivals and Departures, July 2012 (ABS Cat No 3401.0); Tourism
Forecasting Committee Forecast 2012, Issue 2, Tourism Research Australia

11

Change (%)

Trips ('000)

8 000

Inbound tourism forecasts

Inbound tourism forecast to grow modestly in short and medium term
The revised forecasts show that the expected rate of growth in visitor arrivals have been
revised marginally downward, from 3.0 per cent to 2.3 per cent in 201213, and from
4.2 per cent to 3.7 per cent for 2013-14. Driving the downward revision are the markdowns
for New Zealand and China. These were revised from the previous forecast for 201213 of
1.9 per cent and 12.6 per cent to 0.6 per cent and 11.9 per cent, respectively. Europe
remains the most significant risk and, while most Euro markets have not changed
significantly, the cumulative change for the United Kingdom is of concern. When comparing
revisions between forecast rounds, the United Kingdom has been revised downward by
232,000 visitors, with arrivals not expected to return to 201011 levels (632,000) until
2015-16 (refer Figure 3).
Figure 3: International visitor arrivals forecast comparison
12

10
8

10

Visitor arrivals (m)

2
6

-2
4

Change (%)

-4
-6

-8
-10

Chg (2012#1)

Chg (2012#2)

2012#1

2012#2

Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics Overseas Arrivals and Departures, July 2012 (ABS Cat No 3401.0);
Tourism Forecasting Committee Forecast 2012, Issue 2, Tourism Research Australia

These revisions are largely due to the compounding effect of weaker-than-expected

economic growth in 2011, and the mixed world economic picture where the positive outlook
of Asia is somewhat overshadowed by the negative prospects of Euro zone economies.
However, such expectations are partially offset by the upward revisions of the forecast
inbound arrivals from USA and Japan (USA up from 1.3 per cent to 1.5 per cent for 201213
and Japan up from 0.4 per cent to 1.7 per cent for 201213) due to the higher than expected
historical data on total inbound visitor arrivals in 201112 and the continuing economic
recovery and improved consumer confidence in USA and Japan.
12

By purpose, business (2.3 per cent) and holiday (2.2 per cent) travel are projected to
contribute most to the modest growth forecast in 201213 and for 201314. Other
(4.7 per cent), holiday (3.7 per cent) and business (3.6 per cent) are expected to record solid
growth.
On the expenditure side, Total Inbound Tourism Expenditure (TITE)3 is forecast to increase
by 2.8 per cent to $28 billion in 201213. In the longer term, compared to domestic
expenditure, inbound expenditure is forecast to grow at the faster annual average rate of
3.8 per cent to total $39 billion in 202122.
While China has received a downgrade in its forecasts, the China market is expected to
provide around a fifth of total growth in total tourism expenditure (international and
domestic). Furthermore, strong growth from Asia is expected to dominate performance of the
inbound tourism sector in the short and medium term. Inbound arrivals from Asia are
expected to increase by 4.5 per cent to 2.6 million in 201213, and by a further 5.5 per cent
to 2.7 million in 201314. Markets expected to experience strongest growth in 201213 are
China (11.9 per cent), Indonesia (5.2 per cent), and India (5.0 per cent). By 202122, Asia's
share of inbound arrivals is expected to increase from 42 per cent to 45 per cent. In contrast,
combined inbound arrivals from elsewhere in the world are expected to remain relatively flat
(0.7 per cent in 201213) then 2.4 per cent in 201314.
The outlook for inbound arrivals from Europe is mixed. Arrivals from the United Kingdom are
forecast to decline by 1.3 per cent in 201213 before increasing 1.6 per cent in 201314.
The arrivals from Other Europe are forecast to record a modest growth of 1.3 per cent in
201213, and then by a further 2.0 per cent in 201314. The significant growth of inbound
arrivals forecast from Ireland in 201213 (7.0 per cent) and 201314 (4.6 per cent) is largely
due to high numbers in the employment category expected during the current economic
downturns.
In the longer term, annual average growth of 3.2 per cent in inbound arrivals is expected to
reach 8.2 million by 202122. Growth is expected to be supported by a recovering global
economy; a depreciating Australian dollar; a softening in outbound demand providing supply
opportunities for inbound arrivals; and increased investment in marketing activities by
government tourism-promoting agencies.

The measures of total tourism expenditure, TDTE and TITE are presented in real terms in this
publication. As a result, all historical estimates and forecasts to 202122 for these measures are
shown in June 2012 dollars.

13

Table 2

Domestic tourism
Business

Holiday

VFR

Other Visitor nights

Total

('000)
2000-01
2001-02
2002-03
2003-04
2004-05
2005-06
2006-07
2007-08
2008-09
2009-10
2010-11
2011-12
2012-13
2013-14
2014-15
2015-16
2016-17
2017-18
2018-19
2019-20
2020-21
2021-22
Compound annual
growth rate (%)

Total
change
per cent

Overnight trips
change
('000)
per cent

Day trips

('000)

change
per cent

Overnight trip
Expenditure
$million

Day trip
Expenditure
$million

TDTE
(real)
$million

TDTE
change
per cent

43 789
43 182
46 324
41 767
40 506
41 356
43 517
42 158
37 261
37 987
40 535
44 253
45 360
46 948
48 041
48 965
49 313
49 614
49 916
50 220
50 476
50 733

148 927
144 077
143 395
140 202
139 616
136 270
142 796
143 736
134 033
132 594
132 236
134 968
137 512
138 908
139 369
139 798
140 227
140 516
140 805
140 952
141 100
141 247

85 003
87 344
97 820
101 585
95 910
88 889
89 318
86 582
81 362
80 882
79 687
90 681
92 964
93 907
94 861
95 823
96 795
97 776
98 766
99 767
100 779
101 800

13 909
14 139
14 716
12 318
13 660
13 879
13 502
13 015
10 750
12 798
13 778
14 075
14 181
14 266
14 323
14 373
14 417
14 458
14 495
14 530
14 564
14 597

291 628
288 742
302 255
295 872
289 692
280 394
289 133
285 491
263 406
264 261
266 236
283 977
290 016
294 028
296 593
298 959
300 753
302 364
303 982
305 470
306 918
308 377

-1.0
4.7
-2.1
-2.1
-3.2
3.1
-1.3
-7.7
0.3
0.7
6.7
2.1
1.4
0.9
0.8
0.6
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5

73 820
75 048
75 217
74 357
72 178
71 934
73 766
73 528
68 536
68 144
70 977
75 120
76 748
77 931
78 769
79 559
80 205
80 805
81 410
81 983
82 551
83 156

1.7
0.2
-1.1
-2.9
-0.3
2.5
-0.3
-6.8
-0.6
4.2
5.8
2.2
1.5
1.1
1.0
0.8
0.7
0.7
0.7
0.7
0.7

152 765
142 304
143 261
137 899
131 154
131 602
139 538
140 745
144 725
155 075
156 286
168 847
170 419
171 615
172 629
173 578
174 441
175 267
176 098
176 932
177 774
178 621

-6.8
0.7
-3.7
-4.9
0.3
6.0
0.9
2.8
7.2
0.8
8.0
0.9
0.7
0.6
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5

52 188
51 171
52 884
50 210
49 884
50 798
52 263
53 202
48 959
48 853
47 889
51 028
52 100
52 827
53 285
53 717
53 988
54 222
54 455
54 664
54 903
55 061

17 179
15 251
15 487
14 728
14 252
15 002
16 125
16 103
16 179
16 882
15 569
17 614
17 792
17 882
17 961
18 040
18 104
18 171
18 231
18 294
18 381
18 469

69 367
66 422
68 372
64 938
64 136
65 799
68 388
69 305
65 138
65 735
63 458
68 642
69 892
70 709
71 246
71 757
72 093
72 393
72 686
72 958
73 284
73 530

-4.2
2.9
-5.0
-1.2
2.6
3.9
1.3
-6.0
0.9
-3.5
8.2
1.8
1.2
0.8
0.7
0.5
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.3

2001/02-2006/07
2006/07-2011/12
2011/12-2016/17
2016/17-2021/22

0.2
0.3
2.2
0.6

-0.2
-1.1
0.8
0.1

0.4
0.3
1.3
1.0

-0.9
0.8
0.5
0.2

0.0
-0.4
1.2
0.5

-0.3
0.4
1.3
0.7

-0.4
3.9
0.7
0.5

0.4
-0.5
1.1
0.4

1.1
1.8
0.6
0.4

0.6
0.1
1.0
0.4

2001/02-2011/12
2011/12-2021/22

0.2
1.4

-0.7
0.5

0.4
1.2

0.0
0.4

-0.2
0.8

0.0
1.0

1.7
0.6

0.0
0.8

1.5
0.5

0.3
0.7

a
b

Visiting friends and relatives

Total Domestic Tourism Expenditure (TDTE) including the expenditure in domestic day trip and overnight trip (real base = Quarter 2 2012)

14

Table 3
Domestic visitor nights in hotels, motels, guesthouses and
serviced apartments
Business

Holiday

VFR a

Other

Total

('000)
2000-01
2001-02
2002-03
2003-04
2004-05
2005-06
2006-07
2007-08
2008-09
2009-10
2010-11
2011-12
2012-13
2013-14
2014-15
2015-16
2016-17
2017-18
2018-19
2019-20
2020-21
2021-22
Compound annual
growth rate (%)

Total
change

HMGSA b
share

per cent

per cent

23 026
23 809
25 589
24 001
23 183
23 429
25 435
24 308
22 845
21 982
24 357
24 810
25 543
26 445
27 088
27 657
27 912
28 147
28 388
28 624
28 854
29 049

41 709
41 400
42 075
41 824
44 547
42 395
43 301
45 680
39 115
40 712
37 982
39 105
39 869
40 434
40 676
40 867
41 046
41 187
41 324
41 418
41 510
41 613

9 125
8 896
9 799
11 227
10 021
8 615
8 502
9 061
8 302
8 657
8 469
9 701
10 030
10 151
10 270
10 383
10 490
10 603
10 716
10 831
10 944
11 068

2 972
2 836
3 022
2 893
3 200
3 672
2 805
3 082
2 830
3 942
3 920
3 280
3 299
3 354
3 396
3 437
3 471
3 508
3 544
3 579
3 746
3 680

76 832
76 941
80 485
79 945
80 951
78 111
80 043
82 131
73 092
75 293
74 728
76 896
78 741
80 384
81 430
82 344
82 919
83 445
83 973
84 451
85 053
85 409

n.a.
0.1
4.6
-0.7
1.3
-3.5
2.5
2.6
-11.0
3.0
-0.8
2.9
2.4
2.1
1.3
1.1
0.7
0.6
0.6
0.6
0.7
0.4

26.3
26.6
26.6
27.0
27.9
27.9
27.7
28.8
27.7
28.5
28.1
27.1
27.2
27.3
27.5
27.5
27.6
27.6
27.6
27.6
27.7
27.7

2001/02-2006/07
2006/07-2011/12
2011/12-2016/17
2016/17-2021/22

1.3
-0.5
2.4
0.8

0.9
-2.0
1.0
0.3

-0.9
2.7
1.6
1.1

-0.2
3.2
1.1
1.2

0.8
-0.8
1.5
0.6

0.8
-0.4
0.1
0.1

2001/02-2011/12
2011/12-2021/22

0.4
1.6

-0.6
0.6

0.9
1.3

1.5
1.2

0.0
1.1

0.2
0.2

Visiting friends and relatives

Hotels, motels, guesthouses, and serviced apartments

15

Table 4

Short-term resident departures by market, financial year

Business

2000-01
2001-02
2002-03
2003-04
2004-05
2005-06
2006-07
2007-08
2008-09
2009-10
2010-11
2011-12
2012-13
2013-14
2014-15
2015-16
2016-17
2017-18
2018-19
2019-20
2020-21
2021-22
Compound annual
growth rate (%)
2001/02-2006/07
2006/07-2011/12
2011/12-2016/17
2016/17-2021/22

Purpose of visit
VFR
Holiday
'000

Other

Total

New
Zealand

United
States

United
Kingdom

Indonesia

Hong
Kong

Singapore
'000

Thailand

Malaysia

Fiji

China

Other
Asia

Other
Europe

Other

Total

Total
change
per cent

724
674
655
779
864
907
948
983
880
923
1 013
1 033
1 080
1 123
1 162
1 200
1 237
1 272
1 306
1 339
1 371
1 404

919
827
861
1 028
1 170
1 217
1 261
1 344
1 444
1 642
1 688
1 816
1 916
2 010
2 100
2 176
2 246
2 313
2 380
2 441
2 503
2 566

1 584
1 468
1 385
1 744
2 143
2 272
2 470
2 891
3 043
3 721
4 195
4 619
4 999
5 269
5 515
5 730
5 920
6 107
6 287
6 464
6 628
6 794

228
214
214
232
245
258
270
283
287
289
317
328
344
360
374
388
402
417
431
446
462
478

3 577
3 368
3 293
3 937
4 591
4 835
5 127
5 699
5 843
6 770
7 443
8 037
8 591
9 025
9 425
9 777
10 099
10 414
10 720
11 016
11 301
11 591

575
592
615
739
843
836
883
913
955
1 064
1 058
1 117
1 164
1 206
1 244
1 278
1 309
1 339
1 367
1 395
1 422
1 448

373
276
288
342
395
438
451
492
501
635
751
820
881
937
983
1 023
1 056
1 088
1 119
1 148
1 171
1 195

323
308
309
351
385
409
415
430
420
456
477
487
531
525
544
561
572
583
593
602
611
620

295
271
194
271
344
242
231
328
436
653
806
911
984
1 048
1 100
1 143
1 180
1 217
1 252
1 287
1 319
1 352

157
142
115
140
173
191
200
215
200
211
223
229
239
246
251
257
262
268
273
279
284
290

154
163
119
148
176
205
208
224
214
246
276
287
311
327
342
357
371
386
400
415
430
446

158
163
150
154
187
246
332
403
378
432
487
600
663
706
741
769
794
817
840
862
886
908

135
110
98
126
156
164
172
186
205
239
255
257
268
282
295
306
318
329
340
350
361
373

70
113
129
161
189
200
194
224
221
286
323
339
357
373
386
399
411
423
436
449
462
476

101
121
118
150
214
240
269
287
268
306
356
381
411
440
470
496
521
546
570
594
617
641

371
363
377
454
533
566
631
720
754
853
927
1 022
1 104
1 175
1 245
1 305
1 363
1 422
1 479
1 536
1 590
1 646

410
374
385
436
495
547
562
627
591
644
721
780
837
887
922
954
986
1 014
1 040
1 063
1 087
1 110

456
371
396
462
502
550
579
650
700
745
783
807
840
872
902
930
956
983
1 010
1 035
1 060
1 086

3 577
3 368
3 293
3 937
4 591
4 835
5 127
5 699
5 843
6 770
7 443
8 037
8 591
9 025
9 425
9 777
10 099
10 414
10 720
11 016
11 301
11 591

n.a.
-5.9
-2.2
19.5
16.6
5.3
6.0
11.2
2.5
15.9
9.9
8.0
6.9
5.1
4.4
3.7
3.3
3.1
2.9
2.8
2.6
2.6

7.0
1.7
3.7
2.6

8.8
7.6
4.3
2.7

11.0
13.3
5.1
2.8

4.7
4.0
4.2
3.5

8.8
9.4
4.7
2.8

8.3
4.8
3.2
2.0

10.3
12.7
5.2
2.5

6.1
3.2
3.3
1.6

-3.1
31.5
5.3
2.8

7.1
2.7
2.8
2.0

5.0
6.6
5.3
3.8

15.2
12.6
5.7
2.7

9.5
8.3
4.3
3.2

11.3
11.9
3.9
3.0

17.2
7.2
6.5
4.2

11.7
10.1
5.9
3.8

8.5
6.8
4.8
2.4

9.3
6.9
3.5
2.6

8.8
9.4
4.7
2.8

12.9
4.0

4.9
2.4

5.8
4.5

13.9
4.2

8.9
3.8

11.6
3.5

12.1
5.4

10.9
4.9

7.6
3.6

8.1
3.0

9.1
3.7

2001/02-2011/12
4.4
8.2
12.1
4.4
9.1
6.6
11.5
4.7
2011/12-2021/22
3.1
3.5
3.9
3.8
3.7
2.6
3.8
2.5
Numbers shaded are forecasts.
The sum of purpose of visit categories does not add to the total as the total includes estimates for those not reporting a purpose of visit

16

Table 5

International visitor arrivals by market, financial year

New
Zealand

Japan

United
Kingdom

United
States

China

S'pore

South
Korea

Malaysia

Hong
Kong Germany

Middle
East

Other
Asia

France

828
788
793
926
1 082
1 091
1 115
1 121
1 106
1 123
1 183
1 191
1 199
1 222
1 251
1 282
1 309
1 334
1 357
1 378
1 398
1 418

724
659
659
688
701
674
610
521
404
364
364
344
350
361
370
376
382
387
391
395
398
402

605
627
644
686
699
709
733
686
659
653
632
597
589
599
615
633
648
662
676
689
703
717

502
424
424
430
446
453
455
455
452
489
466
464
471
483
501
519
537
554
572
590
608
627

143
172
177
217
274
292
338
375
358
394
500
583
652
713
769
815
857
894
930
967
1 004
1 039

293
296
262
253
267
252
263
267
278
290
315
320
329
340
353
363
372
381
389
398
407
416

165
181
196
216
237
243
271
236
193
196
205
199
197
201
209
217
225
232
240
247
254
262

148
154
142
175
169
153
157
166
195
214
244
243
247
257
267
276
285
293
301
309
318
326

154
149
141
132
149
159
153
147
150
154
170
169
171
176
182
188
193
198
202
207
211
216

78
80
76
79
79
75
77
84
77
83
88
81
82
86
90
94
97
100
103
106
109
113

57
56
50
56
68
73
83
93
105
111
114
114
116
122
132
142
152
162
174
185
198
211

206
174
149
180
185
190
200
207
230
237
235
251
258
270
283
296
309
321
333
345
357
369

54
52
46
57
59
66
70
78
89
97
94
96
97
101
106
111
116
121
126
131
136
141

2001/02-2006/07

7.2

-1.5

3.2

1.4

14.5

-2.3

8.4

0.4

0.6

1.7

13.2

2006/07-2011/12

1.3

-10.8

-4.0

0.4

11.5

3.9

-5.9

9.1

2.0

0.4

11.6

-2.1

-0.7

8.2

2.9

10.7

1.0

6.6

4.6

2011/12-2016/17

1.9

2.1

1.6

2.9

8.0

3.1

2.4

3.2

2.7

2.5

7.4

2016/17-2021/22

1.6

1.0

2.1

3.2

3.9

2.2

3.1

2.8

2.3

2.8

6.8

6.5

3.6

5.9

5.0

3.1

6.8

2001/02-2011/12

4.2

-6.3

-0.5

0.9

13.0

0.8

1.0

4.7

1.3

1.0

2011/12-2021/22

1.8

1.6

1.8

3.1

6.0

2.7

2.8

3.0

2.5

2.7

12.4

4.1

0.1

7.1

5.7

3.3

India Indonesia Thailand

Other
Ireland Europe Canada

South
Africa

Other
World

Total

'000
2000-01
2001-02
2002-03
2003-04
2004-05
2005-06
2006-07
2007-08
2008-09
2009-10
2010-11
2011-12
2012-13
2013-14
2014-15
2015-16
2016-17
2017-18
2018-19
2019-20
2020-21
2021-22

148
137
134
141
142
150
149
155
159
163
159
152
152
155
161
166
171
176
182
187
192
197

46
47
41
54
59
79
88
108
120
130
144
152
160
173
188
202
217
232
248
265
283
301

Total
change
per cent

98
95
87
91
82
82
85
93
96
118
133
142
149
161
172
183
194
204
214
225
236
247

50
51
47
54
57
60
63
69
67
59
53
62
67
70
72
74
77
79
81
82
84
86

356
303
297
306
323
333
348
358
363
370
363
362
367
374
389
403
417
431
444
458
471
485

96
93
87
93
103
106
111
121
121
125
119
119
121
125
131
136
141
145
150
154
159
163

56
56
48
55
50
55
60
66
64
61
62
63
63
65
69
73
76
79
82
85
89
92

223
175
158
167
176
190
210
224
255
259
264
276
280
289
302
313
324
335
346
357
368
379

5 031
4 768
4 656
5 057
5 408
5 484
5 641
5 629
5 541
5 692
5 907
5 981
6 118
6 344
6 612
6 864
7 098
7 322
7 541
7 761
7 982
8 208

n.a.
-5.2
-2.4
8.6
6.9
1.4
2.9
-0.2
-1.6
2.7
3.8
1.2
2.3
3.7
4.2
3.8
3.4
3.1
3.0
2.9
2.9
2.8

6.1

4.6

2.8

3.5

1.6

3.7

3.4

6.5

-0.4

0.8

1.5

0.8

5.6

1.2

4.2

4.0

4.3

2.9

3.3

3.9

3.3

3.5

3.6

3.9

2.3

3.1

3.1

3.8

3.2

2.9

7.4

3.7

6.3

2.1

1.8

2.5

1.2

4.6

2.3

6.4

3.9

3.9

3.3

3.0

3.2

3.9

3.2

3.2

Compound annual growth rate (%)

Numbers shaded are forecasts.

17

Table 6

International visitor arrivals by purpose of visit, financial year

Business

2000-01
2001-02
2002-03
2003-04
2004-05
2005-06
2006-07
2007-08
2008-09
2009-10
2010-11
2011-12
2012-13
2013-14
2014-15
2015-16
2016-17
2017-18
2018-19
2019-20
2020-21
2021-22
Compound annual
growth rate (%)

2001/02-2006/07
2006/07-2011/12
2011/12-2016/17
2016/17-2021/22

VFR

Holiday

Other

Total

Total
change

611
564
556
636
679
766
824
849
766
785
852
882
903
935
968
998
1 025
1 052
1 077
1 103
1 129
1 155

1 021
855
865
986
1 098
1 109
1 153
1 201
1 283
1 392
1 430
1 467
1 494
1 541
1 599
1 656
1 709
1 760
1 809
1 857
1 905
1 953

'000
2 693
2 296
2 361
2 603
2 866
2 895
2 896
2 754
2 604
2 608
2 657
2 642
2 701
2 800
2 922
3 032
3 132
3 226
3 317
3 407
3 498
3 590

513
477
473
558
528
621
668
714
771
780
823
841
801
839
883
928
971
1 015
1 059
1 105
1 152
1 201

5 031
4 768
4 656
5 057
5 408
5 484
5 641
5 629
5 541
5 692
5 907
5 981
6 118
6 344
6 612
6 864
7 098
7 322
7 541
7 761
7 982
8 208

per cent
n.a.
-5.2
-2.4
8.6
6.9
1.4
2.9
-0.2
-1.6
2.7
3.8
1.2
2.3
3.7
4.2
3.8
3.4
3.1
3.0
2.9
2.9
2.8

7.9
1.4
3.1
2.4

6.2
4.9
3.1
2.7

4.7
-1.8
3.5
2.8

7.0
4.7
2.9
4.3

3.4
1.2
3.5
2.9

2001/02-2011/12
2011/12-2021/22

4.6
5.6
1.4
5.8
2.3
2.7
2.9
3.1
3.6
3.2
Numbers shaded are forecasts.
a
Visiting friends and relatives
b
Other refers to education and employment visitors who stay in Australia for one year or less.
The sum of purpose of visit categories does not add to the total as the total includes estimates for
those not reporting a purpose of visit

18

Table 7

International leisure visitor arrivals by market, financial year

New
Zealand

United
Japan Kingdom

United
States

China

S'pore

South
Korea

Malaysia

Hong
Kong Germany
118
103
103
104
110
118
115
119
121
125
122
115
116
118
122
126
129
133
137
140
144
148

India Indonesia Thailand

'000

2000-01
2001-02
2002-03
2003-04
2004-05
2005-06
2006-07
2007-08
2008-09
2009-10
2010-11
2011-12
2012-13
2013-14
2014-15
2015-16
2016-17
2017-18
2018-19
2019-20
2020-21
2021-22

608
516
529
653
774
765
782
770
770
793
824
828
828
840
859
881
901
918
935
951
966
981

623
436
534
575
605
581
516
435
330
296
290
268
271
280
287
292
297
300
304
307
309
312

512
496
522
566
603
620
642
595
570
562
533
490
481
487
501
516
528
540
551
562
573
585

331
254
249
246
288
292
285
275
286
314
289
284
289
296
309
321
333
346
358
371
384
397

76
90
93
116
149
166
199
223
222
232
308
385
444
491
530
560
585
607
626
645
664
681

221
186
171
170
184
160
161
160
173
180
191
191
194
198
204
208
211
214
217
219
222
225

120
120
140
161
183
185
205
176
137
141
153
147
145
147
153
158
164
169
174
179
184
189

113
107
100
130
122
109
108
116
140
155
178
177
180
187
193
199
204
209
214
219
224
229

114
100
94
93
106
113
104
97
103
102
115
115
116
119
122
125
128
131
133
135
137
140

60
52
50
54
48
48
49
51
56
72
81
88
93
101
108
115
121
127
133
139
145
152

2001/02-2006/07
2006/07-2011/12
2011/12-2016/17

8.7
1.1
1.7

3.4
-12.3
2.1

5.3
-5.3
1.5

2.4
-0.1
3.3

17.2
14.2
8.7

-2.9
3.5
2.0

11.3
-6.5
2.2

0.2
10.4
2.8

0.8
1.9
2.2

2016/17-2021/22

1.7

1.0

2.1

3.6

3.1

1.3

2.9

2.3

1.7

2.7

6.2

4.7

2001/02-2011/12
4.8
2011/12-2021/22
1.7
Numbers shaded are forecasts.

-4.8
1.5

-0.1
1.8

1.1
3.4

15.7
5.9

0.2
1.7

2.0
2.6

5.2
2.6

1.4
2.0

1.1
2.5

13.4
6.9

5.4
5.6

Other
Asia France

Other
Ireland Europe Canada

South
Africa

Other
World

Total

Total
change
per cent

51
45
40
45
43
41
41
45
40
45
47
44
44
46
48
51
53
55
57
59
60
62

41
37
33
39
47
51
55
59
66
66
69
65
65
69
75
81
87
93
100
107
115
123

138
106
90
122
130
135
134
134
149
150
142
155
159
167
176
184
192
200
207
215
222
229

34
31
29
32
40
48
50
56
63
71
69
70
71
73
77
81
84
88
92
95
99
103

41
39
37
44
48
51
53
58
53
47
39
43
44
45
46
48
50
51
52
54
55
56

251
207
207
211
236
249
259
263
263
278
268
262
263
267
278
290
301
311
322
332
343
354

73
67
63
69
79
82
83
91
90
96
89
88
89
92
96
100
103
106
110
113
116
120

37
35
30
35
32
37
41
46
46
45
43
44
44
46
49
52
55
57
60
62
65
67

128
100
92
99
105
112
125
133
149
161
164
169
169
174
181
188
195
201
208
214
221
227

3 713
3 151
3 226
3 589
3 964
4 004
4 049
3 955
3 887
3 999
4 087
4 109
4 195
4 341
4 521
4 688
4 842
4 986
5 125
5 264
5 403
5 544

n.a.
-15.1
2.4
11.2
10.4
1.0
1.1
-2.3
-1.7
2.9
2.2
0.6
2.1
3.5
4.1
3.7
3.3
3.0
2.8
2.7
2.6
2.6

Compound annual growth rate (%)

2.3
12.0
-1.2
-1.9
0.0
14.9
12.4
1.4
2.4
7.7
6.6
3.9

8.0
3.7
5.9

4.7
2.9
4.4

10.2
6.9
3.9

6.2
-4.3
3.1

4.5
0.2
2.8

4.5
1.0
3.3

3.1
1.2
4.5

4.6
6.3
2.9

5.1
0.3
3.3

3.4

7.2

3.6

4.0

2.4

3.3

3.0

4.3

3.1

2.7

-0.3
3.6

5.8
6.5

3.8
4.0

8.5
3.9

0.8
2.8

2.4
3.1

2.8
3.2

2.2
4.4

5.4
3.0

2.7
3.0

19

24
24
20
26
31
38
42
52
57
67
74
84
90
98
106
113
121
129
137
145
154
164

Middle
East

Table 8

International visitor nights by market, financial year

New

Japan

Zealand

United

United

Kingdom

States

China Singapore

South Malaysia

Hong Germany

Korea

Kong

India Indonesia Thailand

Middle

Other France

Ireland

Other Canada

South

Other

Africa

World

4.7
4.0
3.1
3.5
4.1
4.1
4.5
4.8
5.3
4.4
4.5
4.6
4.6
4.8
5.0
5.2
5.4
5.6
5.8
5.9
6.1
6.3

1.4
1.2
1.5
1.7
1.5
1.7
1.7
1.5
1.9
1.8
1.9
2.0
2.0
2.1
2.2
2.3
2.4
2.5
2.6
2.7
2.8
2.9

5.5
3.9
4.1
4.0
4.1
5.2
6.0
7.4
9.0
8.5
9.3
9.8
10.1
10.6
11.1
11.6
12.1
12.6
13.2
13.7
14.2
14.8

132
126
121
137
136
153
167
170
183
192
200
208
213
222
233
244
254
264
274
285
295
306

n.a.
-4.7
-4.2
13.4
-0.9
12.8
9.3
1.4
8.0
5.0
4.0
3.8
2.7
4.2
4.9
4.6
4.2
4.0
3.9
3.8
3.7
3.7

2.2
3.2
3.1
3.3

2.5
0.2
3.5
3.0

6.9
2.7
3.8
3.8

9.0
10.2
4.3
4.0

5.8
4.4
4.1
3.8

2.7
3.2

1.4
3.2

4.8
3.8

9.6
4.2

5.1
4.0

East

Asia

Europe

3.0
2.4
2.6
2.5
2.9
3.0
3.2
3.2
3.8
3.9
4.4
4.2
4.2
4.4
4.6
4.7
4.9
5.0
5.2
5.3
5.5
5.6

2.3
2.7
1.9
2.4
2.2
3.0
3.4
4.1
4.4
4.8
5.2
4.7
4.7
5.0
5.5
6.0
6.5
7.0
7.6
8.2
8.9
9.6

5.7
4.8
4.3
4.5
5.3
6.8
7.6
9.7
12.3
13.4
14.0
17.6
18.0
18.8
19.6
20.5
21.2
22.0
22.7
23.4
24.2
24.9

1.4
1.9
1.7
2.5
1.9
2.3
3.7
3.6
4.7
5.3
5.2
5.8
5.9
6.1
6.4
6.6
6.9
7.2
7.4
7.7
7.9
8.2

3.4
3.5
2.5
2.9
3.5
3.6
3.7
3.8
4.1
4.1
3.7
5.1
5.6
5.9
6.0
6.2
6.3
6.4
6.5
6.6
6.7
6.8

13.1
12.2
10.9
10.8
11.5
12.6
13.6
14.4
14.3
14.4
14.5
16.0
16.2
16.6
17.3
18.0
18.6
19.3
19.9
20.6
21.2
21.9

5.8
5.5
3.1
2.8

4.8
6.6
6.9
8.1

9.7
18.2
3.9
3.2

14.1
9.3
3.6
3.4

1.5
6.4
4.4
1.4

5.7
2.9

5.7
7.5

13.9
3.5

11.7
3.5

3.9
2.9

Total

million
2000-01
2001-02
2002-03
2003-04
2004-05
2005-06
2006-07
2007-08
2008-09
2009-10
2010-11
2011-12
2012-13
2013-14
2014-15
2015-16
2016-17
2017-18
2018-19
2019-20
2020-21
2021-22

2001/02-2006/07
2006/07-2011/12
2011/12-2016/17
2016/17-2021/22

13.8
11.1
11.0
12.6
14.0
15.8
15.8
15.6
15.3
14.3
16.4
16.7
16.9
17.2
17.7
18.1
18.5
18.8
19.2
19.5
19.7
20.0

8.7
8.9
8.7
10.9
10.7
11.7
12.0
10.4
8.7
7.9
8.4
9.0
9.4
9.7
10.0
10.2
10.3
10.5
10.6
10.7
10.9
11.0

24.5
24.3
23.7
28.1
23.2
23.7
24.4
22.2
23.4
23.8
22.6
21.7
21.4
21.7
22.3
22.9
23.4
23.9
24.3
24.8
25.2
25.6

11.0
11.3
11.3
10.3
9.6
10.4
10.2
9.7
9.6
10.7
10.4
10.8
10.9
11.2
11.6
12.1
12.6
13.0
13.5
13.9
14.4
14.9

4.0
5.2
7.1
9.1
10.9
11.9
15.3
15.9
17.7
22.5
25.8
26.9
29.2
31.6
34.3
36.9
39.4
41.8
44.4
47.1
49.8
52.6

5.5
4.9
4.7
4.6
4.5
4.9
5.3
5.3
5.5
6.1
6.1
6.3
6.5
6.8
7.1
7.4
7.6
7.8
8.0
8.3
8.5
8.7

6.3
6.1
5.6
6.3
7.2
10.2
12.7
11.5
13.8
14.6
13.4
13.3
13.4
13.6
14.2
14.8
15.4
16.0
16.6
17.2
17.8
18.4

3.6
3.5
3.3
4.5
4.5
5.0
5.3
5.6
6.7
6.6
7.0
6.9
7.0
7.3
7.6
7.9
8.2
8.5
8.8
9.1
9.4
9.7

3.7
3.9
3.4
3.7
3.3
4.5
4.5
4.5
4.8
5.5
5.3
5.9
6.0
6.2
6.5
6.7
6.9
7.1
7.4
7.6
7.8
8.1

7.4
1.2
2.0
1.6

6.0
-5.6
2.8
1.3

0.0
-2.3
1.5
1.8

-1.9
1.1
3.1
3.4

23.9
12.0
8.0
6.0

1.8
3.7
3.7
2.8

15.9
1.0
3.0
3.6

8.6
5.5
3.5
3.4

2.9
5.6
3.4
3.1

2001/02-2011/12
4.2
0.0
-1.1
-0.4
17.8
2.7
8.2
7.0
4.2
2011/12-2021/22
1.8
2.1
1.7
3.3
7.0
3.3
3.3
3.4
3.3
Numbers shaded are forecasts.
Historical estimates for international visitor nights have changed due to a slight change in the methodology.

4.6
5.5
4.7
6.5
5.7
6.7
6.9
7.1
7.5
7.4
6.9
7.3
7.2
7.4
7.6
7.9
8.2
8.4
8.7
8.9
9.2
9.4

2.3
1.8
1.9
1.7
2.3
3.5
4.4
5.7
7.4
8.0
9.7
8.9
9.3
10.1
10.9
11.8
12.8
13.7
14.7
15.8
16.9
18.1

per cent
3.7
3.0
2.7
3.8
2.8
2.8
3.1
3.3
3.3
4.5
5.2
4.5
4.7
5.1
5.5
5.9
6.3
6.8
7.2
7.6
8.1
8.6

Compound annual growth rate (%)

4.6
19.5
1.1
1.0
15.0
7.3
2.4
7.6
7.3
3.0
7.3
6.4
2.8
2.7

20

17.2
7.4

Total
change

4.2
6.8

Table 9

International visitor nights in hotels, motels, guesthouses & serviced apartments by market, financial year
New
Zealand

Japan

United
Kingdom

United
States

China Singapore

2.1
2.5
2.4
2.9
3.5
3.7
4.0
3.9
3.5
3.3
3.5
3.3
3.3
3.4
3.5
3.6
3.6
3.7
3.8
3.9
3.9
4.0

3.1
2.8
2.9
2.8
2.7
2.7
2.3
2.0
1.5
1.4
1.3
1.2
1.2
1.2
1.3
1.3
1.4
1.4
1.4
1.5
1.5
1.5

3.0
3.8
3.7
4.1
4.2
4.7
4.8
4.0
3.7
3.0
3.2
2.6
2.6
2.6
2.7
2.8
2.9
3.0
3.1
3.1
3.2
3.3

3.1
2.7
2.8
2.7
2.7
3.3
3.1
3.3
2.7
2.9
2.7
2.8
2.8
2.9
3.0
3.1
3.2
3.2
3.3
3.4
3.5
3.5

0.7
0.8
0.8
0.9
1.5
1.6
1.8
2.1
1.5
1.7
2.1
2.5
2.8
3.0
3.3
3.4
3.6
3.7
3.9
4.0
4.1
4.3

10.0
-4.2
2.3
1.8

-3.9
-13.0
3.2
2.3

4.8
-11.5
2.3
2.7

2.4
-1.7
2.2
2.4

18.0
6.8
7.7
3.5

South
Korea

Malaysia

Hong
Kong

Germany

India

1.1
1.2
1.1
1.1
1.2
1.3
1.4
1.2
1.3
1.2
1.4
1.4
1.5
1.5
1.6
1.6
1.6
1.7
1.7
1.7
1.8
1.8

0.5
0.6
0.6
0.8
0.8
1.2
1.2
1.1
0.7
0.7
0.7
0.7
0.7
0.7
0.8
0.8
0.8
0.9
0.9
0.9
0.9
1.0

0.5
0.5
0.4
0.7
0.7
0.6
0.6
0.6
0.8
0.7
0.8
0.8
0.9
0.9
0.9
1.0
1.0
1.0
1.0
1.1
1.1
1.1

0.6
0.6
0.6
0.5
0.8
0.6
0.6
0.6
0.5
0.6
0.6
0.7
0.7
0.7
0.7
0.7
0.7
0.7
0.8
0.8
0.8
0.8

1.4
1.4
1.1
0.8
1.0
1.2
1.2
1.0
1.0
1.0
0.9
1.0
1.0
1.0
1.0
1.0
1.1
1.1
1.1
1.2
1.2
1.2

0.2
0.2
0.2
0.3
0.5
0.7
0.8
1.1
0.9
0.7
1.2
0.9
0.9
1.0
1.1
1.2
1.2
1.3
1.4
1.5
1.6
1.7

3.0
0.7
2.8
1.9

15.3
-9.8
2.5
3.0

5.7
6.1
3.1
2.5

0.0
1.4
2.0
1.7

5.9
2.8

0.7
1.9

Indonesia

Thailand

Middle
East

Other
Asia

France

Ireland

Other
Europe

Canada

South
Africa

Other
World

Total

0.2
0.3
0.2
0.4
0.4
0.3
0.4
0.4
0.3
0.3
0.4
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3

0.3
0.3
0.2
0.2
0.3
0.5
0.4
0.4
0.5
0.4
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.6
0.6
0.7
0.7
0.7
0.8
0.8
0.9

0.8
0.6
0.6
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.8
0.7
0.9
0.8
0.8
0.9
0.9
1.0
1.0
1.1
1.1
1.1
1.2
1.2
1.2
1.3

0.4
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.4
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.6
0.6
0.6
0.6
0.6
0.7

0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.5
0.5
0.4
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5

2.3
2.0
1.8
1.7
2.2
2.3
2.8
2.4
2.3
2.2
2.4
2.0
2.0
2.0
2.1
2.2
2.3
2.4
2.5
2.6
2.6
2.7

0.7
0.6
0.5
0.5
0.6
0.8
0.9
0.8
0.8
0.8
0.7
0.7
0.7
0.7
0.7
0.8
0.8
0.8
0.8
0.9
0.9
0.9

0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.3
0.2
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3

0.6
0.5
0.4
0.6
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.9
0.8
0.8
0.9
0.8
0.8
0.9
0.9
0.9
1.0
1.0
1.1
1.1
1.2
1.2

22.2
22.4
21.3
22.6
25.3
28.1
29.3
28.1
25.2
24.0
25.8
24.5
25.1
26.0
27.2
28.2
29.2
30.1
31.0
32.0
32.9
33.9

n.a.
1.2
-5.1
6.2
12.2
10.9
4.1
-3.8
-10.2
-4.9
7.4
-5.1
2.5
3.8
4.3
3.8
3.5
3.2
3.1
3.0
3.0
2.9

Compound annual growth rate (%)

-4.0
26.6
4.0
-3.9
3.7
8.9
2.1
6.5
5.6
2.6
6.9
4.3

5.8
-6.3
2.8
2.2

7.2
2.8
6.1
6.7

4.4
3.3
3.4
2.9

11.4
-0.9
3.4
3.5

21.8
-6.0
4.7
2.2

6.7
-6.4
3.1
3.5

9.3
-5.5
3.5
3.2

2.8
-7.1
4.4
4.4

6.1
2.1
4.4
4.3

5.5
-3.5
3.6
3.0

-3.9
2.4

-0.4
2.5

5.0
6.4

3.8
3.1

5.1
3.5

7.0
3.5

-0.1
3.3

1.7
3.4

-2.3
4.4

4.1
4.3

0.9
3.3

million
2000-01
2001-02
2002-03
2003-04
2004-05
2005-06
2006-07
2007-08
2008-09
2009-10
2010-11
2011-12
2012-13
2013-14
2014-15
2015-16
2016-17
2017-18
2018-19
2019-20
2020-21
2021-22

2001/02-2006/07
2006/07-2011/12
2011/12-2016/17
2016/17-2021/22

2001/02-2011/12
2.7
-8.6
-3.7
0.3
12.3
1.9
2.0
2011/12-2021/22
2.0
2.7
2.5
2.3
5.6
2.4
2.7
Numbers shaded are forecasts.
Historical estimates for international visitor nights have changed due to a slight change in the methodology.

14.5
6.7

21

Total
change
per cent

0.3
0.3
0.2
0.3
0.3
0.4
0.3
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.6
0.5
0.5
0.6
0.6
0.6
0.7
0.7
0.7
0.8
0.8
0.8

6.4
5.0

Table 10

International leisure visitor nights by market, financial year

New
Zealand

United
Japan Kingdom

United
States

China

S'pore

South
Korea Malaysia

Hong
Kong Germany

Thailand

Middle
East

1.0
0.7
0.7
0.6
0.8
0.9
1.0
1.1
1.0
1.3
1.5
1.7
1.7
1.8
1.8
1.9
2.0
2.0
2.1
2.2
2.2
2.3

1.7
1.7
1.3
1.6
1.6
2.0
1.9
2.0
2.1
2.1
2.3
1.8
1.8
1.9
2.1
2.2
2.4
2.5
2.7
2.9
3.1
3.3

2.9
2.0
1.8
1.8
2.2
3.1
3.6
4.5
6.1
6.2
6.6
7.9
8.1
8.4
8.8
9.2
9.6
9.9
10.2
10.5
10.8
11.1

1.0
0.8
0.8
0.8
1.2
1.4
2.5
2.5
3.1
3.7
3.4
3.9
3.9
4.0
4.2
4.4
4.5
4.7
4.9
5.0
5.2
5.3

2.8
2.4
1.9
2.1
2.5
2.5
2.6
2.8
3.1
2.8
1.9
2.5
2.5
2.5
2.6
2.7
2.8
2.9
2.9
3.0
3.0
3.0

8.6
8.1
6.9
6.8
7.8
8.9
9.4
9.9
9.6
10.0
9.7
10.4
10.4
10.6
11.1
11.5
12.0
12.4
12.9
13.3
13.7
14.2

Compound annual growth rate (%)

4.8
22.0
3.4
6.5
1.6
20.5
9.5
11.9
2.3
6.7
6.2
3.3

2.1
-1.2
5.5

12.5
16.9
3.8

26.6
9.7
3.0

1.5
-0.8
2.3

India Indonesia

Other
Asia France

Other
Ireland Europe Canada

South
Africa

Other
World

Total

3.1
2.6
1.9
2.1
3.0
2.9
3.2
3.3
3.5
2.9
3.1
3.0
3.0
3.2
3.3
3.4
3.6
3.7
3.8
3.9
4.1
4.2

1.0
0.9
1.0
1.1
1.1
1.0
1.1
1.1
1.4
1.3
1.3
1.3
1.3
1.4
1.5
1.6
1.6
1.7
1.8
1.9
2.0
2.0

3.1
2.1
1.8
2.0
2.1
2.4
2.6
2.9
3.8
4.0
4.8
5.0
5.0
5.1
5.4
5.6
5.8
6.0
6.2
6.4
6.6
6.8

84.1
69.3
67.2
73.9
80.5
86.6
93.7
91.5
98.0
102.4
104.9
108.3
110.0
113.5
118.5
123.1
127.4
131.4
135.3
139.1
143.0
146.9

n.a.
-17.6
-3.0
10.0
8.9
7.6
8.3
-2.4
7.2
4.5
2.4
3.2
1.5
3.2
4.3
3.9
3.5
3.1
3.0
2.8
2.8
2.7

3.1
1.9
2.9

3.9
-1.3
3.6

6.0
2.7
4.7

4.6
13.9
3.0

6.2
2.9
3.3

million
2000-01
2001-02
2002-03
2003-04
2004-05
2005-06
2006-07
2007-08
2008-09
2009-10
2010-11
2011-12
2012-13
2013-14
2014-15
2015-16
2016-17
2017-18
2018-19
2019-20
2020-21
2021-22

3.4
3.7
3.1
4.3
4.1
4.8
4.7
5.1
5.5
5.1
5.0
5.1
5.1
5.2
5.4
5.5
5.7
5.8
6.0
6.2
6.3
6.5

per cent

9.6
6.8
7.1
8.2
9.9
9.8
10.3
9.7
9.7
9.4
10.2
10.6
10.6
10.7
10.9
11.2
11.4
11.5
11.7
11.9
12.0
12.1

6.4
4.6
5.4
5.6
6.7
6.5
6.3
5.8
5.2
4.8
5.1
4.6
4.7
4.9
5.1
5.2
5.3
5.4
5.5
5.6
5.6
5.7

21.2
17.1
18.4
20.7
19.7
20.1
20.3
18.5
19.7
19.7
17.7
16.5
16.1
16.3
16.7
17.2
17.5
17.9
18.2
18.5
18.9
19.2

6.6
5.4
5.0
4.3
4.9
5.2
5.2
4.8
5.2
5.8
5.7
5.7
5.9
6.0
6.3
6.5
6.8
7.0
7.3
7.5
7.8
8.0

1.4
1.7
1.6
2.3
3.2
3.5
4.8
3.7
4.3
5.9
7.7
8.5
9.7
10.7
11.6
12.4
13.0
13.5
14.0
14.5
14.9
15.4

2.4
2.0
1.9
1.9
1.9
1.9
2.0
1.7
1.9
2.1
2.3
2.3
2.3
2.4
2.5
2.5
2.6
2.6
2.6
2.7
2.7
2.8

3.3
2.5
2.5
3.1
3.4
4.5
6.3
5.7
5.8
7.1
7.1
7.1
7.0
7.1
7.4
7.8
8.1
8.3
8.6
8.9
9.2
9.5

1.6
1.5
1.4
1.7
1.7
1.5
1.8
1.8
2.2
2.1
2.5
2.4
2.5
2.6
2.7
2.7
2.8
2.9
3.0
3.1
3.1
3.2

1.2
1.3
1.3
1.2
1.4
1.7
1.6
1.7
1.9
2.2
2.1
2.6
2.6
2.6
2.6
2.7
2.7
2.7
2.7
2.7
2.8
2.8

2001/02-2006/07
2006/07-2011/12
2011/12-2016/17

8.6
0.6
1.4

6.6
-5.8
2.6

3.5
-4.1
1.3

-0.7
2.0
3.3

23.1
12.1
8.8

0.2
2.4
2.2

20.2
2.4
2.6

3.6
6.5
3.1

3.8
9.8
1.1

2016/17-2021/22

1.3

1.6

1.8

3.6

3.4

1.5

3.3

2.6

0.5

2.6

5.3

4.4

2.8

6.8

3.1

3.2

1.7

3.5

3.3

4.5

3.3

2.9

2001/02-2011/12
4.5
2011/12-2021/22
1.4
Numbers shaded are forecasts.

0.2
2.1

-0.4
1.6

0.6
3.4

17.4
6.0

1.3
1.9

10.9
3.0

5.0
2.8

6.8
0.8

3.2
2.5

21.2
6.0

6.4
5.3

9.2
3.1

0.5
6.1

14.7
3.4

17.8
3.1

0.3
2.0

2.5
3.2

1.3
3.4

4.3
4.6

9.1
3.1

4.6
3.1

22

0.6
0.6
0.7
0.5
0.6
1.2
1.5
1.8
2.1
2.6
3.3
3.9
4.1
4.5
4.8
5.1
5.4
5.7
6.0
6.3
6.6
6.9

Total
change

1.1
0.8
0.7
1.0
0.8
0.8
1.0
1.0
1.0
1.5
1.6
1.5
1.6
1.7
1.8
1.9
2.0
2.1
2.2
2.3
2.4
2.5

Table 11

Total inbound tourism expenditure by market, financial year

(presented in real terms and 2012 Q2 as base period)

New
Zealand

United
Japan Kingdom

United
States

China

S'pore

South
Korea Malaysia

Hong
Kong Germany

India Indonesia Thailand

Middle
East

Other
Asia France

Other
Ireland Europe Canada

South
Africa

Other
World

Total

$ million
2000-01
2001-02
2002-03
2003-04
2004-05
2005-06
2006-07
2007-08
2008-09
2009-10
2010-11
2011-12
2012-13
2013-14
2014-15
2015-16
2016-17
2017-18
2018-19
2019-20
2020-21
2021-22

1 958
1 849
1 934
2 023
2 287
2 409
2 428
2 509
2 228
2 130
2 211
2 240
2 244
2 275
2 320
2 368
2 410
2 445
2 475
2 502
2 526
2 550

4 077
3 300
3 054
2 992
2 994
3 136
2 368
2 004
1 922
1 505
1 451
1 446
1 529
1 543
1 562
1 568
1 577
1 584
1 589
1 595
1 593
1 592

4 349
4 617
4 667
4 680
4 275
4 227
4 672
4 220
4 004
3 378
3 092
2 822
2 785
2 828
2 907
2 981
3 044
3 106
3 164
3 221
3 278
3 336

3 812
3 910
3 111
2 840
2 694
2 878
2 642
2 750
2 655
2 271
2 187
2 297
2 318
2 364
2 436
2 512
2 584
2 655
2 724
2 793
2 865
2 938

1 016
1 239
1 327
1 518
1 883
1 845
2 018
2 454
2 856
3 063
3 554
3 792
4 167
4 535
4 916
5 268
5 614
5 955
6 304
6 669
7 048
7 434

1 224
1 265
1 176
898
898
896
976
1 146
1 090
1 091
1 212
1 199
1 228
1 280
1 338
1 386
1 430
1 473
1 516
1 559
1 604
1 650

1 015
985
1 030
1 034
1 163
1 388
1 667
1 455
1 397
1 251
1 276
1 295
1 279
1 300
1 352
1 405
1 456
1 506
1 556
1 603
1 651
1 700

682
719
653
790
708
710
761
925
952
1 011
1 032
1 029
1 046
1 091
1 140
1 187
1 234
1 280
1 326
1 373
1 421
1 471

861
1 001
739
693
637
717
736
739
776
755
832
790
798
832
868
902
935
967
999
1 032
1 065
1 100

1 141
1 196
1 076
1 134
1 041
1 022
1 078
1 152
1 186
1 063
905
887
881
896
926
954
982
1 009
1 035
1 060
1 086
1 113

457
345
285
215
342
395
452
729
846
791
945
712
758
837
923
999
1 094
1 193
1 301
1 417
1 541
1 676

5.6
-1.6
1.5
1.1

-6.4
-9.4
1.7
0.2

0.2
-9.6
1.5
1.8

-7.5
-2.8
2.4
2.6

10.3
13.4
8.2
5.8

-5.1
4.2
3.6
2.9

11.1
-4.9
2.4
3.1

1.1
6.2
3.7
3.6

-6.0
1.4
3.4
3.3

-2.1
-3.8
2.1
2.5

5.5
9.5
9.0
8.9

2001/02-2011/12
1.9
2011/12-2021/22
1.3
Numbers shaded are forecasts.

-7.9
1.0

-4.8
1.7

-5.2
2.5

11.8
7.0

-0.5
3.2

2.8
2.8

3.7
3.6

-2.3
3.4

-2.9
2.3

7.5
8.9

Total
change
per cent

630
578
501
538
424
429
412
513
469
513
628
648
672
724
776
828
876
925
976
1 027
1 081
1 138

383
425
426
430
420
375
369
419
483
441
507
398
402
423
447
468
489
509
529
550
571
593

340
406
296
395
266
307
398
631
647
573
438
407
415
440
481
521
561
604
651
701
755
813

968
879
804
846
760
826
864
1 033
1 284
1 303
1 295
1 398
1 438
1 506
1 579
1 650
1 720
1 789
1 855
1 920
1 986
2 053

300
328
317
356
312
360
491
529
644
612
556
554
569
590
624
652
680
709
739
770
800
830

529
427
407
505
562
667
650
659
768
599
521
660
719
755
780
798
819
838
855
872
887
903

2 783
2 498
2 483
2 289
2 210
2 175
2 315
2 529
2 595
2 315
2 166
2 026
2 049
2 096
2 179
2 261
2 338
2 416
2 494
2 571
2 649
2 728

780
726
647
583
675
715
778
852
858
712
688
647
659
687
721
750
778
803
828
855
881
909

285
271
312
428
381
339
368
433
474
312
342
357
358
370
388
406
422
438
452
467
481
496

1 040
695
587
552
756
888
833
921
1 157
1 092
1 157
1 153
1 194
1 241
1 297
1 349
1 397
1 445
1 491
1 541
1 591
1 642

28 629
27 656
25 831
25 736
25 686
26 702
27 277
28 601
29 289
26 783
26 995
26 757
27 507
28 613
29 960
31 215
32 440
33 649
34 859
36 098
37 362
38 666

n.a.
-3.4
-6.6
-0.4
-0.2
4.0
2.2
4.9
2.4
-8.6
0.8
-0.9
2.8
4.0
4.7
4.2
3.9
3.7
3.6
3.6
3.5
3.5

-6.5
9.5
6.2
5.4

-2.8
1.6
4.2
3.9

-0.4
0.5
6.6
7.7

-0.3
10.1
4.2
3.6

8.4
2.4
4.2
4.1

8.8
0.3
4.4
2.0

-1.5
-2.6
2.9
3.1

1.4
-3.6
3.8
3.2

6.3
-0.7
3.4
3.3

3.7
6.7
3.9
3.3

-0.3
-0.4
3.9
3.6

1.2
5.8

-0.7
4.1

0.0
7.2

4.8
3.9

5.4
4.1

4.5
3.2

-2.1
3.0

-1.1
3.5

2.8
3.4

5.2
3.6

-0.3
3.8

Compound annual growth rate (%)

2001/02-2006/07
2006/07-2011/12
2011/12-2016/17
2016/17-2021/22

23

Table 12

Total leisure inbound tourism expenditure by market, financial year

(presented in real terms and 2012 Q2 as base period)

New
Zealand

United
Japan Kingdom

United
States

China

S'pore

South
Korea

Malaysia

Hong
Kong Germany

India Indonesia Thailand

Middle
East

Other
Asia France

Other
Ireland Europe Canada

South
Africa

Other
World

Total

$ million
2000-01
2001-02
2002-03
2003-04
2004-05
2005-06
2006-07
2007-08
2008-09
2009-10
2010-11
2011-12
2012-13
2013-14
2014-15
2015-16
2016-17
2017-18
2018-19
2019-20
2020-21
2021-22

1 270
1 189
1 306
1 402
1 610
1 626
1 637
1 649
1 477
1 414
1 371
1 412
1 405
1 419
1 444
1 476
1 503
1 526
1 547
1 567
1 586
1 604

3 491
2 583
2 467
2 281
2 411
2 355
1 787
1 495
1 450
1 059
993
968
971
993
1 008
1 016
1 020
1 023
1 025
1 025
1 025
1 024

3 709
3 661
3 949
3 804
3 703
3 628
4 025
3 550
3 368
2 769
2 432
2 106
2 056
2 079
2 136
2 194
2 240
2 284
2 326
2 367
2 409
2 452

2 339
2 046
1 664
1 395
1 538
1 557
1 509
1 488
1 440
1 222
1 089
1 183
1 200
1 223
1 269
1 312
1 355
1 397
1 441
1 485
1 530
1 577

388
542
491
480
644
722
753
864
1 114
951
1 162
1 448
1 666
1 843
1 987
2 096
2 190
2 268
2 339
2 408
2 475
2 537

650
648
632
432
442
391
437
440
461
452
496
467
471
482
496
506
514
522
529
536
543
551

606
575
663
650
756
813
1 032
861
679
642
714
695
686
697
725
752
779
804
830
854
879
904

353
364
315
359
340
281
330
357
390
421
451
424
430
446
461
475
488
501
513
525
537
549

494
522
393
302
348
367
341
352
350
324
390
360
364
374
385
395
404
413
420
428
435
443

6.6
-2.9
1.3
1.3

-7.1
-11.5
1.1
0.1

1.9
-12.2
1.2
1.8

-5.9
-4.7
2.7
3.1

6.8
14.0
8.6
3.0

-7.6
1.3
1.9
1.4

12.4
-7.6
2.3
3.0

-1.9
5.1
2.9
2.4

-8.2
1.1
2.3
1.8

2001/02-2011/12
1.7
2011/12-2021/22
1.3
Numbers shaded are forecasts.

-9.4
0.6

-5.4
1.5

-5.3
2.9

10.3
5.8

-3.2
1.7

1.9
2.7

1.5
2.6

-3.6
2.1

2001/02-2006/07
2006/07-2011/12
2011/12-2016/17
2016/17-2021/22

934
942
868
808
802
798
818
828
913
771
669
648
649
658
679
698
717
735
753
769
787
804

142
130
94
69
117
119
122
191
178
173
199
225
238
261
283
306
329
352
376
402
429
457

242
197
198
198
140
147
140
171
170
183
235
261
275
297
317
336
352
369
385
401
417
434

Compound annual growth rate (%)

-2.8
-1.2
-6.6
-4.6
13.0
13.3
2.1
7.9
6.2
2.3
6.8
4.2
-3.7
2.2

24

5.6
7.4

2.9
5.2

Total
change
per cent

150
177
156
130
128
127
122
133
134
118
160
123
124
129
136
143
150
156
162
168
173
179

184
308
198
224
202
205
236
324
293
215
169
143
142
150
162
174
186
199
212
227
242
259

547
458
405
400
381
411
411
457
577
503
484
499
510
532
561
589
616
642
666
688
711
735

187
195
217
215
203
249
337
375
432
429
363
364
368
379
401
422
443
464
484
505
526
548

471
331
353
403
480
509
537
565
652
472
320
381
388
398
416
433
448
462
475
487
499
511

1 890
1 778
1 719
1 549
1 582
1 522
1 689
1 763
1 752
1 632
1 481
1 293
1 294
1 317
1 375
1 434
1 491
1 546
1 602
1 657
1 712
1 769

564
525
445
394
495
508
554
592
563
494
443
411
416
432
453
470
486
502
517
534
550
567

171
171
182
301
260
188
225
232
272
196
187
216
217
224
236
248
259
270
280
290
299
309

569
362
332
257
375
413
394
422
507
496
531
492
492
504
524
543
560
577
594
611
627
644

19 352
17 703
17 047
16 053
16 960
16 936
17 435
17 109
17 171
14 940
14 340
14 120
14 361
14 836
15 454
16 017
16 531
17 012
17 475
17 933
18 392
18 856

n.a.
-8.5
-3.7
-5.8
5.6
-0.1
2.9
-1.9
0.4
-13.0
-4.0
-1.5
1.7
3.3
4.2
3.6
3.2
2.9
2.7
2.6
2.6
2.5

-7.1
0.1
4.0
3.7

-5.2
-9.5
5.4
6.8

-2.1
4.0
4.3
3.6

11.6
1.6
4.0
4.3

10.1
-6.6
3.3
2.6

-1.0
-5.2
2.9
3.5

1.1
-5.8
3.4
3.1

5.6
-0.8
3.7
3.6

1.7
4.6
2.6
2.8

-0.3
-4.1
3.2
2.7

-3.6
3.8

-7.4
6.1

0.9
3.9

6.5
4.2

1.4
3.0

-3.1
3.2

-2.4
3.3

2.4
3.6

3.1
2.7

-2.2
2.9

Tourism Research Australia

Department of Resources, Energy and Tourism
GPO Box 1564
Canberra ACT 2601
ABN: 46 252 861 927
Contact us at tourism.research@ret.gov.au