Additional Exercises with Solutions for: A First Course in Applied Statistics

With applications in Biology, Business, and the Social Sciences Second edition

Megan J. Clark

John A. Randal March 21, 2010

Alysha O. Nickerson

This document is intended as support for the second edition of Clark and Randal, A First Course in Applied Statistics, Pearson, 2010. The exercises are from the rst edition, and these are not repeated in the second. The solutions for these were largely produced by Alysha Nickerson. The authors are particularly grateful to Alysha for her dedication to this project. Solutions are given for all end-of-chapter exercises in the book, and we include slightly expanded duplicates of the solutions given in Appendix D of the rst edition. All graphs were produced by the statistical software R (available for free at http://www.r-project.org/). Please report any errors or omissions to john.randal@vuw.ac.nz.

Chapter 2
Exercises The rst set of questions gives you practice classifying variables.
2.1 The following table is the rst two lines of a large data set of information collected on 200 children

referred to Psychological Services for assessment for possible attention decit hyperactivity disorder.
Age Gender 1=M 2=F 1 2 . . . Maximum concentration span on task (min) 2.5 5.8 . . . Activity level 1 = low 2 = medium 3 = high 3 2 . . . Number of times broke away from task 3 12 . . .

9 13 . . .

Classify the ve variables according to whether they are quantitative or categorical. If they are quantitative, further classify as discrete or continuous.
2.2 A graduate student in ecology is collecting data on cicadas. The following is the beginning of her

data set:
Maturity juvenile/adult J A . . . Location B B . . . Singing time (min) 0.8 4.5 . . . Body weight (g) 2.8 3.3 . . . Number in quadrat 7 8 . . . Time of day dawn mid am . . .

Classify these six variables according to whether they are quantitative or categorical. If they are quantitative, further classify them as discrete or continuous.
2.3 Classify the following variables as quantitative or categorical. If they are quantitative, classify

further as discrete or continuous. (a) (b) (c) (d) (e) (f) (g) (h) (i) (j) Size of student loan. Mori population of New Zealand in 2050. a Maximum ow (cubic metres per second) of the Hutt River. Residence of people who commute to Wellington to work. Weight of weta faeces. Amount of leaf browse in New Zealand mistletoe in a region (high, medium or low). Habitat of spotted skink. Concentration of mercury (mg/m3 ) in Lake Rotorua. Age when sent to prison. Reaction time to auditory stimulus.

The next set of exercises give practice drawing stemplots and dotplots.
2.4 In a study of sixty individuals with brain damage in which word recall is apparently blocked by

an intruder word, the number of inappropriate words used instead of a correct response was noted during an hour of questioning, and recorded as the number of intruder words per 10-minute interval. When the data are organised according to the age at which brain injury occurred (and those with unknown age of injury deleted) the data are as follows (ordered from lowest to highest)

Injured before age 15 7.1 8.1 9.0 10.5 16.0 7.2 8.3 9.8 11.0 16.1 7.2 8.4 9.9 12.5 7.9 8.6 10.1 14.3 8.1 9.0 10.1 15.4 8.4 10.1 14.3 15.7 16.8 17.7

Injured after age 15 8.7 10.5 14.8 15.7 17.0 9.0 11.1 15.2 16.0 17.1 9.6 11.2 15.6 16.2 17.5 9.8 12.4 15.6 16.4 17.7

(a) Draw back-to-back stemplots of this data. (b) Draw side-by-side dotplots of the data for those injured before the age of 15 and those injured after age 15. (c) Comment on any features of these plots. Which seems more informative? Why?
2.5 The owner of a Subaru Legacy monitors the petrol consumption of his car. The following data are

the number of kilometres driven per litre (km/L) of petrol consumed for 30 tanks of gas: 11.6 9.7 9.6 10.7 9.3 11.1 11.5 8.6 11.6 10.1 8.2 8.5 10.5 8.7 11.3 9.6 10.6 11.6 10.9 10.8 9.3 11.0 9.4 10.3 10.6 8.5 10.2 8.5 10.1 10.5

Draw a split-stem stemplot of these data. Does this plot indicate any interesting patterns in the cars fuel consumption?
2.6 Eggs from the Stephens Island tuatara (Sphenodon punctatus) were collected in November 1998,

and incubated in the lab at 18, 21 or 22 degrees Celsius. After hatching, the young tuatara had their development monitored. This data set is a random sample of ten from each incubation temperature, although the incubation temperatures have not been noted. The measurement is SVL = snout-vent length (mm) at age 10 months. 80 91 81 82 84 83 81 83 84 82 90 87 73 83 76 85 87 84 81 89 88 83 85 83 80 82 91 82 84 84

Draw up a dotplot of this data. Is the eect of the three dierent incubation temperatures showing in the plot? How? (Data provided by Nicola Nelson, from Nelson, Nicola J., Michael B. Thompson, Shirley Pledger, Susan N. Keall and Charles H. Daugherty (2004). Egg mass determines hatchling size, and incubation temperature inuences post-hatching growth of tuatara Sphenodon punctatus. Journal of Zoology, 263, 111.)
2.7 A study of a wetland site to investigate the rate of regrowth of vegetation after a catastrophic gale

has as part of the study the measurement of leaf lengths of a particular shrub at a date 12 months later. Twenty-eight plants were randomly selected and the following is the length of the largest leaf per plant (cm): 6.5 11.4 13.3 8.3 8.4 10.7 5.5 14.2 7.8 7.8 6.4 11.4 10.1 8.8 8.7 9.7 12.7 6.4 8.1 14.5 6.7 7.2 6.4 13.1 9.6 10.3 9.9 8.3

Draw a dotplot of this data. Summarise the information in the dotplot. Now draw a stemplot. Which do you prefer and why?
2.8 A member of the rush family, Rostkovia magellanica is found only in a few locations such as the

Carrick Range in Central Otago and Takahe Valley in Fiordland. Lengths of 34 fully grown plants in samples taken in these locations were as follows (cm):

Carrick Range

Takahe Valley

12.7 14.3 12.9 12.6 12.5

14.4 14.3 13.0 12.7 12.7

13.0 13.9 13.6 13.3

12.6 13.9 13.1 12.5

12.8 13.2 12.3 13.1

13.3 13.3 12.8

12.4 12.7 11.5

13.5 12.9 12.3

13.6 13.7 13.0

Draw a back-to-back split-stem stemplot of these data. What are the main features of the data?
2.9 The following data are alcohol consumption scores for n = 19 eighteen-year-old males. The amounts

have been scaled to account for dierences in body weight to make them directly comparable: 16, 33, 17, 8, 19, 22, 22, 18, 25, 32, 14, 18, 17, 18, 10, 9, 22, 14, 14. Draw a split-stem stemplot to represent this data. Why is a split-stem sensible in this situation? Use this plot to nd a sensible representative value to describe 18-year-old males alcohol consumption in a single value. These exercises involve frequency tables, and histograms. They also provide further practice with variable classication, and stemplots.
2.10 Thirty-six soccer players having their tness assessed had to do as many sit-ups as possible in

12 seconds. Each player had to do this task ve times in 4 hours and their average number of sit-ups/12 seconds was recorded. The data are as follows: 3.7 4.1 4.5 4.0 4.8 3.8 2.3 3.5 2.0 1.4 1.5 4.0 4.0 2.8 4.7 1.2 1.6 4.5 1.6 1.1 2.7 1.8 4.2 4.9 4.7 4.7 4.4 1.3 4.8 4.4 4.4 1.3 4.6 3.8 1.1 1.4

(a) Draw up a frequency table of the data using the following class intervals: 1.0 -(1.5), 1.5-(2.0),. . ., 4.5-(5.0). (b) Use the table in (a) to draw a histogram of the data and draw a frequency polygon on the histogram. (c) Summarise the main features of this data. (d) Draw a split-stem stemplot of the data. How does this compare to the frequency table in (a)? (e) The data above is part of a wider set of data collected on the players. The following are the rst 2 lines of that data set:
Gender female=0 male=1 0 1 . . . Pulse rate beats per min 67 52 . . . Ave. situps (/12sec) 4.5 1.2 . . . Body weight (kg) 72.4 59.2 . . . Team

D B . . .

Classify the 5 variables according to whether they are quantitative or categorical. If they are quantitative, further classify as discrete or continuous.
2.11 Draw a histogram of the following monthly returns (measured in %) from ve years share price

data for Telecom New Zealand. Comment on any features. 3.9 3.7 7.0 4.2 13.1 6.6 11.8 2.3 7.0 3.1 10.3 2.7 0.2 7.6 7.0 3.3 10.0 0.9 0.5 8.8 10.8 4.1 4.8 9.7 10.2 7.6 4.5 1.1 5.2 11.9 1.9 0.6 8.5 0.5 7.4 5.9 2.6 9.7 2.5 1.2 2.9 8.6 0.1 4.8 4.5 5.4 11.0 5.4 1.9 0.7 5.9 4.1 5.5 4.7 12.0 4.5 4.5 0.6 3.6 1.0
2.12 In the study of sixty individuals with brain damage mentioned in Exercise 2.4 in which word recall

is apparently blocked by an intruder word, the number of inappropriate words used instead of a correct response was noted during an hour of questioning, and recorded as the number of intruder words per 10-minute interval. The results are shown below: 5

Words 7-(8) 8-(9) 9-(10) 10-(11) 11-(12) 12-(13) 13-(14) 14-(15) 15-(16) 16-(17) 17-(18) Freq 4 8 9 6 4 2 0 3 6 8 10

Draw a histogram for the data and on this histogram draw a frequency polygon.
2.13 The shrub Pimelea concinna is found mainly on the upper reaches of the Wairau and Hurunui

rivers. The following table illustrates the numbers of Pimelea concinna found in each of thirty 10m2 sites on the upper reaches of the Wairau river:
Plants per site Frequency 0-(5) 8 5-(10) 5 10-(15) 6 15-(20) 4 20-(25) 3 25-(30) 3 30-(35) 1 Total 30

(a) Draw a frequency histogram of this data. (b) As accurately as possible draw the frequency polygon of the data above. (c) If the data are to be compared with data from 52 sites on the Hurunui river which would you use on the vertical axis; frequency or relative frequency? Why? (d) Why is a histogram not a particularly suitable form of representation of this data?
2.14 The following histogram illustrates the numbers of Rostkovia magellanica found in each of 33 sites

on the Carrick Range in Central Otago.

10

8 frequency

20 40 number of plants at site

60

80

(a) Find the number of sites in each of the groups and record in a frequency table. (b) As accurately as possible, draw the frequency polygon on your histogram. (c) If these data are to be compared with data from 45 sites from Takahe Valley in Fiordland, which would you use, frequency or relative frequency on the vertical axis? Why? (d) What type of data is plants per site?
2.15 The following data represent the body lengths of a sample of 260 paua seized by Fisheries sta in

January. (Note that paua must be 12.5 cm in length before they can legally be taken.)
Length of paua (cm) 7.5 - (10.0) 10.0 - (12.5) 12.5 - (15.0) 15.0 - (17.5) 17.5 - (20.0) 20.0 - (22.5) 22.5 - (25.0) Frequency 35 70 80 20 13 30 12

(a) Why is a histogram more appropriate than a bar chart for these data? (b) Draw a histogram for this data showing relative frequency on the vertical axis. Describe this histogram in a single sentence. What does it suggest about the paua stock?

2.16 A random sample of 500 families from South Auckland were scored on a check list that is used to

gauge the availability of extended family support, and the data presented in the following table:
Availability of family support score 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 (1.0) (2.0) (3.0) (4.0) (5.0) (6.0) Availability of family support score 6.0 - (7.0) 7.0 - (8.0) 8.0 - (9.0) 9.0 - (10.0) 10.0 - (11.0) 11.0 - (12.0)

Frequency 22 35 50 70 45 35

Frequency 65 80 43 35 20 0

(a) Present this data in a histogram. Why is it an appropriate choice of graph to represent this data? (b) How many modes does your histogram have? What might this mean about the sample? (c) Later investigation classied 210 of the families as dysfunctional (using a standard assessment scale) and the remainder as functional. Is this consistent with the graph? Give reasons for your answer. (d) Random samples of 15 families from each of these two groups yielded the following scores:
Dysfunctional 4.6 0.5 3.9 5.5 9.3 1.8 3.1 4.8 4.9 10.5 3.3 5.7 6.4 6.8 9.0 10.9 10.9 Functional 9.2 6.0 10.5 9.8 8.1 10.2 7.5 7.8 8.7 6.8 8.9 9.4

Draw back-to-back stemplots of these data. (e) Summarise the main features of the data.
2.17 A producer of chocolate bars measures the weight of a particular variety at the end of the production

line. Forty randomly selected bars gave the following weights (in grams): 51.5 51.7 51.2 50.4 51.8 49.6 50.6 50.8 50.9 51.7 51.1 51.3 51.0 50.8 51.8 49.3 51.4 51.3 50.7 51.7 50.7 50.8 51.6 52.2 51.2 50.7 50.2 50.8 50.8 51.3 50.4 52.9 51.1 51.8 49.4 51.5 50.1 51.6 51.5 50.3 (a) Draw a histogram of these data. (b) Draw a split-stem stemplot of these weights. Which of these two representations do you prefer? (c) The bars have an indicated weight of 50g. Does the data suggest the producer is satisfying this requirement? The remaining exercises give practice drawing bar graphs.
2.18 The following information was gained from people given a diagnosis in the New Zealand mental

health system in 2002.

Diagnosis - disorder due to: Organic disease, inc. dementias Substance abuse Schizophrenia and related Mood disorders (bipolar, etc.) Neurotic, stress and anxiety Behavioural syndromes, inc. eating disorders Adult personality disorders Mental retardation Disorder of psychological development Hyperkinetic and related % total patients in system 5.2 17.7 18.3 33.9 17.2 1.4 3.4 0.9 0.7 4.3

(a) Represent this data in a bar chart. 7

(b) The percentages in the table add to more than 100% - explain why this might be so. (Data from Mental Health Information National Collection.)
2.19 The following is New Zealand climate data for selected cities: City Mean Sunshine Mean Days Mean Mean annual hours annual of annual annual rain days per annum temperature frosts maximum minimum 140 113 123 92 117 96 85 119 1904 2173 2015 2187 2008 2372 1992 1645 15.7 14.1 12.0 14.3 12.7 12.2 11.9 11.1 0 7 37 9 0 38 36 10 28 33 30 32 27 28 34 29 3 -2 -4 -2 1 -4 -5 -2

Auckland Gisborne Taupo Napier Wellington Nelson Christchurch Dunedin

Draw a bar graph to display this information. (Data from New Zealand Yearbook, 1984.)
2.20 ICME is an international conference on mathematics education that occurs every four years. The

1996 conference was held in southern Europe, the 2000 one in Asia and the 2004 conference was held in northern Europe. There are always concerns when choosing the venue that it be as accessible and as aordable to delegates from as many countries as possible. On the other hand, a host country has to have the facilities and infrastructure to hold the conference, which typically has over 2000 attendees. The following is data from selected countries on enrolments for ICME at a time three months prior to commencement:
Venue Asia (Japan) 4 10 114 88 222 23 64 13 13 11

Delegates from Poland Italy China UK USA Brazil Australia New Zealand South Africa Mexico

Southern Europe (Spain) 10 43 21 202 278 149 130 16 44 20

Northern Europe (Denmark) 9 35 59 108 314 27 90 14 30 15

Draw a bar graph with bars for each venue using a suitable key. Suggest some explanations for the patterns you see there. (Data from http://www.icme-10.dk/)
2.21 The following data are from the ve busiest container ports internationally in 20-foot equivalent

units (TEU, i.e. a unit can be one 20-foot container or two 10-foot containers).
Rank 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 2000 2001 2002

Hong Kong 18,098,000 Hong Kong 17,826,000 Hong Kong 19,144,000 Singapore 17,086,900 Singapore 15,571,100 Singapore 16,940,900 Pusan 7,540,387 Pusan 8,072,814 Pusan 9,453,356 Kaohsiung 7,425,832 Kaohsiung 7,540,525 Shanghai 8,620,000 Rotterdam 6,274,556 Shanghai 6,334,400 Kaohsiung 8,493,000

Note that of all these ports, Singapore and Hong Kong have by far the smallest yard areas to work in, e.g. the Rotterdam port has 280 hectares with a yearly throughput of 2.5 million TEU while Hong Kong is 122 hectares and a yearly throughput of 6.5 million. Use bar graphs to demonstrate this data as eectively as possible by stacking and, using a suitable unit of measurement. (Data provided by Yat-wah Wan from his project with Zhang, Liu, Murty and Linn.)
2.22 Wade et al worked with doctored photographs to see if they could create false memories of childhood

events. Subjects worked at memorizing ve photos of their childhood (of which one was doctored) for a week and then underwent a series of tests. For question A they had to rank their response to: As I remember the event, I can hear it in my mind on a Likert scale from 1 = not at all up to 7 = as clearly as if it was happening right now. They also had to respond to B: As I remember the event, I can see it in my mind on the same scale. Responses for 20 subjects for these two questions were: Question A: Question B: 1 5 4 7 4 2 5 1 3 3 4 1 3 2 2 4 2 4 6 5 7 6 1 2 6 3 4 4 1 3 3 1 2 5 5 3 1 4 3 4

Draw side-by-side bar graphs for the responses to these two questions. What do the plots suggest about the responses to the two questions? (Data from Wade, K.E., Garry, M., Read, J. D. & Lindsay, D.S. (2002). A Picture is Worth a Thousand Lies: Using False Photographs to Create False Childhood Memories. Psychonomic Bulletin & Review 9, pp. 597603.)
2.23 The following table gives a picture of the changes in the Mori population of particular North a

Island regions from the 1840s to 1874. The Mori Population in the Southern North Island was: a
Locality Port Nicholson Waikanae/Porirua Otaki Manawatu Rangitikei Wanganui Wairarapa Early 1840s 800 1020 1000 1000 600 5800 500 1850 745 888 1379 877 259 No data 780 1857 583 483 954 709 647 3837 740 1874 161 162 491 536 407 2437 742

Present this information in some sort of bar graph. Summarise the main points. (Data thanks to Brad Patterson, published in McConchie, Winchester and Willis, Dynamic Wellington, 2000, Institute of Geography, VUW.)
2.24 The following data on student loans over $50,000 is from the Dominion Post, 21 May 2004. Loan balance ($) > 99,999 80,000 - 99,999 60,000 - 79,999 55,000 - 59,999 50,000 - 54,999 Number owing 382 1071 4509 2527 3709

Draw up a bar chart of this data with frequency on the vertical axis. Solutions
2.1 Categorical: gender, activity.

Quantitative continuous: concentration, age (but usually recorded as quantitative discrete). Quantitative discrete: number of times.

2.2 Categorical: maturity, location, time of day.

Quantitative continuous: singing time, body weight. Quantitative discrete: number in quadrat.
2.3 Categorical: d, f, g.

Quantitative continuous: a, c, e, h, i (but usually recorded as discrete), j. Quantitative discrete: b.

2.4 (a)
Under 15 Over 15

9221 64311 9800 511 0 5 3 4 10

7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17

4 0 1 1 4 3 2 0 0

7 68 5 2

key 8 | 4 = 8.4

8 6677 248 1577

(b)

Number of inappropriate words for children injured before and after 15 years

Pre

Post

10

12 Number of inappropriate words

14

16

18

(c) Both plots show the bimodal nature of the data in the over 15s and the bias to lower values in the under 15s, however the dotplots are much harder to read. It is easier to read the data from the stemplots.
2.5 The stemplot (below) shows the data is bimodal, could indicate dierent types of driving alters

the cars fuel consumption.

8 8 9 9 10 10 11 11 2 5 3 6 1 5 0 5 5 3 6 1 5 1 6 5 4 7 2 6 3 6 67 key 8 | 2 = 8.2

3 6789 6

2.6 We can see 2 distinct groups in the dotplot, with a large group around 80-85 and a smaller group

around 87-89. There are 2 values, 73 and 76, that could be outliers. A possible explanation could be that for 2 of the incubation temperatures, there is no strong dierence in SVL, with the 3rd group distinctly dierent. There could be other factors that aect SVL such as gender.
Snout vent lengths of 30 tuatara

75

80 Length (mm)

85

90

10

2.7
Maximum leaf lengths of 28 plants

10 Length of the largest leaf per plant (cm)

12

14

The dotplot shows clustering of leaf lengths around 6.5, 8 and 10cm. It is easier to recover the data from the stemplot (below). Both plots show the shape of the data.
5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 5 4 2 1 6 1 4 7 1 2 4 8 3 7 3 4 3 5 457 8 3478 9 7 key 6 | 4 = 6.4

2.8 The stemplot (below) shows plants from Carrick range are longer in general. Both are unimodal

and the range for Carrick range is larger than that of Takahe Valley.
Carrick Range Takahe Valley

99877 3320 9976 43

4 6 0 5 3

11 12 12 13 13 14

5 33 556778 0113 6

key 12 | 4 = 12.4

2.9 It is sensible to do a split-stem as most of the data is in the 10s, there is not much shape to the

plot if you dont do a split stem as there are only 4 values in the stem. The stemplot is unimodal and quite symmetric, a representative value would be between 15 and 19.
0 1 1 2 2 3 8 0 6 2 5 2 9 444 778889 22 3 Frequency 7 4 2 2 0 4 8 9 key 1 | 0 = 10

2.10 (a) The frequency table is:

Class Boundaries

1.0-(1.5) 1.5-(2.0) 2.0-(2.5) 2.5-(3.0) 3.0-(3.5) 3.5-(4.0) 4.0-(4.5) 4.5-(5.0)

(b) The histogram is:

11

Histogram of Soccer Player Fitness

10

Frequency
0 2 4

0.5

1.5

2.5

3.5

4.5

5.5

Average number of situps/12 seconds

(c) The data is bimodal, most soccer players could do a lot of situps or very few at all, with not many in the middle. (d) The stemplot is more useful because you can see the shape of the data and no data are lost in the stemplot, whereas the frequency table and histogram lose the actual data values.
1 1 2 2 3 3 4 4 1 5 0 7 123344 668 3 8 key 1 | 4 = 1.4

5788 00012444 556777889

(e) Gender and Team are categorical. Average situps and Body weight are Quantitative continuous. Pulse rate is Quantitative Discrete.
2.11 The histogram (below) shows the data is unimodal with mode between 0 and 5%. The data is

skewed to the left which means there is more data in the negatives, so monthly returns have more often been negative than positive over the ve years of data.

12

Histogram of Telecom Monthly Returns

20

Frequency

10

15

20

10

10

20

monthly return (%)

2.12
Histogram and Frequency Polygon of Intruder Words
10

Frequency
0 2 4

10

12

14

16

18

20

words per 10minute interval

13

2.13 (a) and (b)

Histogram and Frequency Polygon of Numbers of Pimelea concinna

Frequency

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

number of plants (per 10 square m.)

(c) Relative frequency. When comparing samples of dierent sizes, relative frequency must be used. (d) The data are discrete so a bar chart may be a better representation.
2.14 (a)
Class Boundaries

0-(10) 10-(20) 20-(30) 30-(40) 40-(50) 50-(60) 60-(70) 70-(80)

Frequency 10 3 6 5 4 4 1 0

(b)
Histogram and Frequency Polygon of Numbers of Rostkovia magellanica
10

Frequency
0 2 4

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

number of plants

(c) We would need to use relative frequency as the sample sizes are dierent. (d) Quantitative discrete.
2.15 (a) A histogram is more appropriate as the data is quantitative continuous. There are no gaps

between class intervals. (b) The histogram (below) is skewed to the right with a mode in the size range 12.5 to 15cms. 14

Note that around 40% of paua are undersize. There is also a smaller mode in the size range 20 to 22.5cms, which suggests that there are 2 distinct groups in the paua population - this could be male and female paua, or adult and juvenile.
Histogram of Paua Length

Density

0.00

0.02

0.04

0.06

0.08

0.10

0.12

7.5

10

12.5

15

17.5

20

22.5

25

size of paua (cms)

2.16 (a) A histogram is appropriate as the data is continuous and there are no gaps in the class bound-

aries.
Histogram of Availability of Family Support
80

Frequency

20

40

60

10

12

availability of support

(b) There are 2 modes, suggesting there are 2 distinct groups within the population of families in South Auckland when it comes to availability of family support. (c) 177 families got a score less than 4 and 222 got a score less than 5. The rst mode occurs between 3 and 4, so it is consistent with the statement. It is likely that the left hand side represents dysfunctional families. (d) The stemplot is:

15

Dysfunctional

Functional

5 8 931 986 75 84

3 5

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

key 6 | 0 = 6.0

0 5 1 0 2

8 8 79 248 599

(e) The data from the dysfunctional group has a large spread and the range covers nearly all possible values, where the data from functional group is limited to scores of 6 and above. This may indicate that there are factors other than availability of support that inuence whether a family is dysfunctional.
2.17 (a)
Histogram of Chocolate Bar Weights
12

Frequency

10

49

50

51

52

53

weights (grams)

(b) Visually, a stemplot is a rotated histogram, but the benet of a stemplot is that you do not lose any information.
49 49 50 50 51 51 52 52 3 6 1 6 0 5 2 9 4 2 7 1 5 3 7 1 5 4 7 2 6 4 888889 23334 6777888 key 50 | 1 = 50.1

(c) Most values lie within 50.5 and 52, so they usually get fairly close to the required of 50 grams. It is standard practice to aim slightly higher than specied weight, as there can be serious consequences for producing underweight products. 3 out of 40 (7.5%) have weight less than 50 grams, which may be too high depending on the companys tolerance level.

16

2.18 (a)
Barplot of Diagnoses in New Zealand Mental Health
35 % people 0 5 10 15 20 25 30

Organic

Substance

Schiz.

Mood

Neurotic

Behav.

Pers. Dis.

Retard.

Psych. Dev.

Hyper.

Diagnosis

(b) This can happen because a person may have more than one diagnosis recorded in the mental health system in 2002, i.e. a person can appear in more than one bar, e.g. by having neurotic stress and anxiety, and being a substance abuser.
2.19 Showing more than one variable on a plot is dicult, unless scales are very similar in which case

a combination of bars and lines might be possible. Here, we show the three temperature variables together, and the remaining three variables in separate barplots.
Average annual temperature with maximum and minimum
35 30 25 Temperature 20 15 10 5 0 5 Christchurch Gisborne Wellington Auckland Nelson Napier Dunedin Taupo Mean annual rain days 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 Christchurch Gisborne Wellington Auckland Nelson Napier Dunedin Dunedin Taupo

Rainfall

Sunshine hours
35 Sunshine hours per annum 2000 Days of frosts 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 Christchurch Gisborne Wellington Auckland Nelson Napier Dunedin Taupo 0

Frosts

1500

1000

500

2.20 Attendance has loosely been from countries close to the venue. UK attendance has been much

higher for the Southern European ICME; Chinese attendance much higher for the Japan ICME than the two European conferences; Brazilian attendance much higher for the Spain ICME. An exception is the Australian attendance at the Japan ICME, which was low relative to its proximity.

17

Christchurch

Gisborne

Wellington

Auckland

Nelson

Napier

Taupo

Attendance at three ICME conferences

100

Number of delegates

Mexico South Africa New Zealand Australia Brazil USA UK China Italy Poland

20

40

60

80

Spain

Japan

Denmark

2.21
5 Biggest Container Ports TEU
100

Shanghai Rotterdam Kaohsiung Pusan Singapore Hong Kong

Percentage of total

20

40

60

80

2000

2001

2002

2.22 The bar graphs (below) suggest that responses to the two questions are very similar but with

question B getting more high responses than question A.

18

Question A Responses
5 6

Question B Responses

2.23 The bar graph shows the general decline of the Mori population in the Southern North Island, a

the exception being the Wairarapa, which was stable. Also clear is the large population in the Wanganui region.

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

1840s 1850 1857 1874

Port Nich.

Waik/Porirua

Otaki

Manawatu

Rangitikei

Wanganui

Wairarapa

19

2.24
Sizes of student loans over $50,000 in 2004

Frequency

1000

2000

3000

4000

50(55)

55(60)

60(80) Size of student loan ($ thousands)

80(100)

100 +

20

Chapter 3
Exercises
3.1 Using the data on brain injury in Exercise 2.4, nd the mean and standard deviation of the number

of inappropriate words, for each of the groups injured before age 15 and injured after age 15.
3.2 Find the mean and standard deviation and variance of the leaf length data in Exercise 2.7. 3.3 Exports from New Zealand to Australia (in $million) over the four years 2000 to 2003 were: 5528,

6083, 6326, 6050. Find the mean, median and standard deviation of these data. (Data from New Zealand in Prole, 2003 and 2004, Statistics New Zealand.)
3.4 Using your frequency table from Exercise 2.10:

(a) Write down the class midpoints and use them to estimate the sample mean and standard deviation of the average number of sit-ups per 12 seconds to three decimal places. (b) What characteristic of the data will cause the sample mean and median to dier? Which will be larger and why?
3.5 Following from Exercise 2.5:

(a) Calculate the mean and standard deviation of the fuel consumption data. (b) Draw a boxplot of the data. (c) Why must the driver monitor km/L rather than km/$ in order to keep track of his fuel eciency?
3.6 Using the data from Exercise 2.22:

(a) Find the mean and median responses to Questions A and B. Which is it more appropriate to use and why? (b) Find the range of responses in each case and also the interquartile ranges. (c) Summarise the information in (a) and (b) and compare the responses to questions A and B.
3.7 Using the histogram or frequency table from Exercise 2.14, calculate estimates for the true sample

mean and sample standard deviation of the number of plants per site to two decimal places using the grouped data of the table.
3.8 Using the data from Exercise 2.13, calculate estimates of the true sample mean and sample standard

deviation of the number of plants per site to two decimal places using the grouped data of your table.
3.9 In an international test of secondary school mathematics achievement (P.I.S.A.) used in OECD

countries recently, New Zealand students had a very high mean score, 20% of New Zealand students scored in the 90th percentile and the range of scores in New Zealand students was among the very highest. Explain what this means in practical terms and why this is both good news and bad news for education ocials in this country.
3.10 A random sample of oil spills in the Southern hemisphere (in tonnes of oil 100,000) is as follows:

1.53, 0.48, 0.42, 0.34, 1.76, 0.43, 0.33, 0.19, 0.5, 1.1, 0.1, 0.57, 0.36, 0.20, 0.23, 0.64, 0.20, 0.18, 0.6, 1.0. Find the mean and variance of oil spill sizes from this sample. the sample mean and sample standard deviation of the number of intruder words. Also estimate the range of the data. Explain why these are estimates only. Summarise the main features of this data.

3.11 Using the data and histogram from Exercise 2.12, write down the class midpoints and then estimate

3.12 (a) Find the median, quartiles and the 85th percentile of the data from the Takahe Valley in

Exercise 2.8. (b) Are any of the data from the Takahe Valley to be considered outliers? Give reasons for your answer.

21

(c) Draw horizontal boxplots for the data from both the Takahe Valley and the Carrick Range and write a sentence comparing the two boxplots. What does this suggest about the two locations? (d) Draw a modied boxplot of the Takahe Valley data.
3.13 A survey of the cost of energy generation in New Zealand power stations conducted in 1985-86

indicated the following total operating costs (cents/kW):

Station Ohau A Ohau B Ohau C Tekapo B Roxburgh Manapouri Piripaua Rangipo Benmore Aviemore Maraetai Whakamaru Kaitawa Cost 0.05 0.07 0.11 0.11 0.15 0.16 0.16 0.18 0.20 0.21 0.35 0.39 0.42 Station Aratiatia Matahina Tokaanu Ohakuri Arapuni Waitaki Atiamuri Waipapa Highbank Karapiro Wairakei Arnold Cost 0.43 0.46 0.56 0.58 0.58 0.58 0.59 0.60 0.77 0.79 0.91 1.23 Station Cobb Tuai Monowai Lake Coleridge Mangahao Huntly New Plymouth Stratford Otahuhu Meremere Whirinaki Marsden A Cost 1.26 1.29 1.92 2.11 2.26 3.43 3.48 3.85 7.45 15.52 20.61 55.99

(a) Find the mean and standard deviation of the total operating costs per kW. Why are these not sensible summary statistics for these data? (b) Draw a modied boxplot of the data, and comment on any features. (Data thanks to Richard Martin.)
3.14 The following prices (in $000) are of 27 central city apartments which were among those sold in

Wellington in early 2004. 277.5 400 600 290 400 628 320 460 635 330 475 655 340 493 667 350 500 1260 359 550 1700 359 570 370 590 385 600

Find the sample mean and sample median of these data. Which is more appropriate? (Data thanks to Ron Beccard.)
3.15 In Exercise 2.16:

(a) What was the approximate range of availability of family support scores observed in this sample? Explain why it is an estimate only. (b) Calculate estimates of the sample mean and standard deviation of the data to two decimal places.
3.16 A botanist follows a transect along a hillside. For each 12 totara trees she passes, she records how

many out of the 12 are still in the juvenile stage. Later, this data is collected into a frequency table as follows:
Number of juveniles (out of 12) Frequency (number of samples) 0 7 1 15 2 20 3 11 4 6 5 0 6 1 7 1 8 1 9 1 10 0 11 0 12 0

How many totara trees were looked at altogether? Find the mean number of juveniles in groups of 12 totara trees and the standard deviation. What would be an appropriate graph in which to display this data?
3.17 Calculate the sample mean and standard deviation of the monthly returns for Telecom given in

Exercise 2.11.

22

3.18 The following data was collected by Cielle Stephens on the New Zealand spotted skink. Thirty-two

traps were placed in each of three habitats: pasture, replanted forest and tussock on Stephens Island. The data are the counts of skinks per trap totalled over a ten-day period in each habitat.
Pasture 4 11 3 3 0 1 2 1 2 4 1 8 4 5 1 14 2 6 5 8 0 10 1 7 5 4 6 8 5 13 6 6

Replanted 15 24 31 8 4 18 14 33 11 16 20 1 17 12 27 26 forest 18 6 12 16 11 8 13 12 11 8 10 17 29 3 12 5 Tussock 14 23 15 14 5 16 10 16 14 10 7 12 29 10 11 11 10 10 6 13 7 7 10 10 8 8 12 19 17 12 6 12

Draw side-by-side boxplots of this data and summarise what they are saying in terms of skink density with respect to these three habitats.
3.19 The closing prices of the 50 stocks in the NZSX 50 Index on Friday 2 July, 2004 were (in $):

6.82 4.60 5.94 4.75

0.41 6.88 20.15 0.84 3.21 0.67 4.53 13.08 2.44 1.69 1.96 4.99 2.89 5.30 0.94 4.50 7.05 5.20 1.30 5.18 4.14 5.85 1.90 1.78

2.06 2.95 2.11 5.48

4.90 3.15 0.82 4.65

5.86 4.68 1.25 1.71

0.85 0.94 4.21 1.06 7.46 18.55 2.80 4.60 4.78 0.95

(a) Draw a stemplot of these data and comment on any features. (b) Draw a modied boxplot of the closing prices. (c) Calculate the sample mean and standard deviation of these prices. Repeat with the outliers removed, and comment on your estimates.
3.20 For 18 countries in Central and South America the following birthrates (births per 1000 population)

were reported in 1996: 38 39 34 29 39 25 38 37 23 31 25 34 28 24 19 30 27 26

(a) Find the median birthrate for this group of countries in 1996 and the 35th percentile. (b) By nding the upper and lower quartiles and maximum and minimum, draw up a boxplot of this data. (c) Should any of the data be considered outliers? Why? (d) Find the mean and standard deviation of this data. By comparing the mean and median what characteristic of the data can you deduce?
3.21 The labour force participation rate (%) in over-15-year-olds in the main urban areas of the North

Island in 2001 were: 60.6, 68.3, 69.4, 67.3, 66.2, 68.5, 65.9, 64.4, 61.1, 66.8, 62.3, 63.8, 64.8, 61.9, 59.2, 66.1, 56.2, 66.8, 69.2, 69.3, 77.4. (a) Find the mean, median and standard deviation of this data. (b) Are there any outliers in this data? (c) Draw a modied boxplot of the data. (Data from 2001 Census Regional Summary, Statistics New Zealand.)
3.22 The survival times (in months) for two groups of patients with a terminal illness, one group with

23 patients who are given the standard treatment, and another group of 19 patients who are given an experimental treatment are shown below:
Standard treatment 9 21 43 56 13 24 50 60 13 25 50 62 16 25 51 62 17 31 54 64 17 40 56 Experimental treatment 19 44 58 68 27 44 58 28 46 59 35 47 63 38 54 65 39 57 65

23

(a) Find the lower and upper quartiles, the interquartile range and the range for each group. (b) Are there any outliers in either group? Justify your answer. (c) Draw side-by-side boxplots of the data for the two treatments. Summarise the information in the boxplots.
3.23 The number of days that two dierent batteries for calculators last are listed below:

Battery A Battery B

614 590

710 672

648 844

768 658

868 778

724 748

548 946

652

772

Construct side-by-side boxplots for each battery type and summarise the information in the plots.
3.24 The annual rainfall (in mm) over 12 South Island regions in the year 2001 was:

47 56 116 178 19 75 160 31 12 164 43 74 Find the mean, range, standard deviation and variance of this data.
3.25 Below are the lengths of time until reoending of a sample of repeat oenders who are all males

of similar age and with a similar history of oending. The time until reoending is recorded in months according to the type of sentence they had last received. Jail with job training Jail only 14 18 3 15 16 21 10 14 11 16 12

(a) Find the mean time until reoending for each category of oender and their associated standard deviations. (b) Find the median times until reoending of each category of oender and the upper and lower quartiles. (c) Find the interquartile range in each case and use it to establish whether there are any outliers in the data. (d) Draw side-by-side modied boxplots of the data and use them to summarise the information in the data.
3.26 In a culture of a certain bacterium, the following counts in each of 100 samples of the same area

were recorded: Number in area Frequency 0 8 1 17 2 28 3 23 4 16 5 5 6 3

Find the mean number of bacteria per sample and the standard deviation.
3.27 The following data represent the average total annual incomes of a random sample of superannuated

couples.
Total income ($000) 5 10 15 20 25 30 40 50 9.999 14.999 19.999 24.999 29.999 39.999 49.999 99.999 Number of couples 2 27 59 60 28 18 5 1

(a) Find the approximate mean annual income of such couples and the associated standard deviation. (b) Find an approximate median annual income for such couples.

24

3.28 The assets of 42 companies in 2003 (in $million) are shown in the following table: Assets Frequency 0-(2) 2-(4) 4-(6) 6-(8) 8-(10) 10-(12) 12-(14) 14-(16) Total 3 5 5 7 10 8 3 1 42

Calculate estimates for the sample mean and standard deviation of the assets in $million using this grouped data.
3.29 Calculate the mean, standard deviation and 10th percentile of the chocolate bar weights in Exer-

cise 2.17. Approximate the mean and standard deviation from the histogram and compare these to the actual values. Solutions
3.1 Injured before 15: x = 10.209, s = 2.867. Injured after 15: x = 13.85, s = 3.230. 3.2 x = 9.364, s = 2.539 and s2 = 6.445. 3.3 x = 5996.75, median= 6066.5 and s = 335.860. 3.4 (a) The midpoints are 1.25, 1.75, 2.25, 2.75, 3.25, 3.75,4.25, 4.75. x = 3.264, and s = 1.401.

(b) When the data is skewed, the sample mean and median will dier. In this case, most of the values are large, so the fewer low values will bring the mean downwards, without aecting the median (see answer to 2.10).
3.5 (a) x = 10.097, and s = 1.055.

(b) min = 8.2, max = 11.6, LQ = 9.3, median = 10.25 and U Q = 10.9
Boxplot of Fuel Consumption

8.5

9.0

9.5

10.0

10.5

11.0

11.5

fuel consumption (km/L)

(c) The price the driver is paying for fuel can vary over time which would make it appear that eciency is changing even when the driver is still getting the same kms per litre.
3.6 (a) Question A: x = 3.1 and median= 3. Question B: x = 3.7 and median= 4. The median and

mean are similar in both cases, expect symmetric distribution, so mean is more useful since it uses all of the data. (b) Question A: range = 7 1 = 6, IQR = U Q LQ = 4 2 = 2. Question B: range = 7 1 = 6, IQR = U Q LQ = 5 2.5 = 2.5 (c) Both questions yielded fairly symmetric distributions, with Question A having a lower mean than Question B. The ranges for both questions are the same and IQRs are similar. People in the test gave higher values in the Likert scale for seeing the event, compared with hearing the event.
3.7 x = 26.82 and s = 18.95 (2dp). 3.8 x = 12.83 and s = 9.09 (2dp). 3.9 Since the range is one of the highest, even though many did very well, there must be a lot of

students who also did very poorly. On the other hand one-fth of students were in the top 10% internationally. It will make it dicult to target education to a particular level.
3.10 x = 0.558 and s2 = 0.206. 3.11 The midpoints are 7.5, 8.5, 9.5, 10.5 11.5, 12.5, 13.5, 14.5, 15.5, 16.5, 17.5. The approximate mean

is x 12.683 and s 3.634. These are estimates because we are using the midpoint of each class 25

instead of the actual data. Range 18 7 = 11, and this is an overestimate because we dont know the actual max and min. The average number of intruder words is approximately 12.68 but this is misleading as the data is bimodal and there are two peaks, one around 9.5 and another around 17.0. The range of intruder words is from around 7 up to 18 so there is quite a spread but 40% of the data is in the group 15-(18).
3.12 (a) n = 14, np = 14 0.5 = 7, so median between 7th and 8th values: median= 12.7. p = 0.25:

np = 14 0.25 = 3.5, so 4th value: LQ = 12.5. p = 0.75: np = 14 0.75 = 10.5, so 11th value: U Q = 13.1. p = 0.85: np = 14 0.85 = 11.9, so 12th value: 85th percentile = 13.1. (b) IQR = U Q LQ = 13.10 12.5 = 0.6. U Q + 1.5IQR = 14.00, LQ 1.5IQR = 11.6. 11.5 is the only value outside these values, so it is an outlier. (c) Plants from Carrick Range are generally longer, both ranges are similar. Takahe Valley is more skewed.
Side by Side Boxplots for Lengths of Rostkovia magellanica

Carrick Range 11.5

Takahe Valley

12.0

12.5

13.0

13.5

14.0

14.5

plant lengths (cm)

(d) Note that the left hand whisker ends at 12.3 - the smallest value that is not an outlier.
Modified Boxplot for Lengths of Rostkovia magellanica in Takahe Valley

11.5

12.0

12.5

13.0

13.5

plant lengths (cm)

3.13 (a) x = 3.508 and s = 9.807. These are not sensible summary statistics because of the shape of

the distribution. It is asymmetric, and the few stations with high costs have a large inuence over these statistics, which dont represent the bulk of the data. They have the eect of dragging the mean well above the middle value. (b) LQ = 0.21, U Q = 1.92, IQR = 1.71, LQ 1.5IQR = 2.355 and U Q + 1.5IQR = 4.485. The boxplot shows four outliers at the higher costs, and also shows that the data is very asymmetric.
Modified Boxplot for Energy Generation Costs

10

20

30

40

50

total operating costs (cents/kW)

26

3.14 x = 539.4 (1dp) and median = 475. The median is more appropriate due to the outlying values. 3.15 (a) Range 11 0 = 11, which is approximate because we do not know the actual data and can

only use the minimum of the rst and maximum of the last groups with data in them. (b) x 5.52 and s 2.73.

3.16 The sample size is

fi = n = 63. The total number of trees is 12 63 = 756 trees. x = 2.254 and s = 1.796. A barplot would be appropriate since the data are discrete.

3.17 x = 0.727 and s = 6.352 (3dp). 3.18 Pasture: min = 0, LQ = 2, median = 4.5, U Q = 6.5 and max = 14.

Replanted: min = 1, LQ = 9, median = 12.5, U Q = 18 and max = 33. Tussock: min = 5, LQ = 9, median = 11, U Q = 14 and max = 29.
Side by Side Boxplots for Skink Density

Pasture

Replanted

Tussock

10

15

20

25

30

number of skinks per trap

The boxplots show that the skink density in tussock and replanted forest are similar, the medians are approximately the same with the range in tussock slightly smaller. The skink density in pasture is lower than the other 2 groups, so must be the least favoured habitat for skinks.
3.19 (a) Note how dicult it is to read a stemplot with this data. A boxplot or histogram is much more

informative.

27

04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 : 16 17 18 19 20 21 : 24 : 28 29 30 31 32 : 41

1 7 245 445 6 5 0 9 18 06 6 1 4 09 5 5 1 4

42 : 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 : 58 59 : 68 69 70 : 74 : 130 : 185 : 201

1 03 0058 58 09 8 0 0 8 56 4 28

key 08 | 2 = 0.82

6 8 5 5

(b) min = 0.41, max = 20.15, median = 4.175, LQ = 1.71, U Q = 5.2, IQR = 3.49, LQ 1.5IQR < 0 and U Q + 1.5IQR = 10.435. Thus 13.08, 18.55 and 20.15 are outliers.
Modified Boxplot of NZSX prices

10

15

20

Stock closing price

(c) x = 4.296 and s = 3.926. Removing the outliers: xadj = 3.469 and sadj = 2.039. By removing the outliers, both the mean and standard deviation decrease markedly.
3.20 (a) median = 29.5, 35th percentile = 27 (np = 18 0.35 = 6.3, so 7th value).

(b) LQ = 25, U Q = 37 , min = 19 and max = 39.

Boxplot of Birthrates

20

25

30

35

birthrates (births per 1000 pop.)

(c) IQR = 37 25 = 12, LQ 1.5IQR = 7 and U Q + 1.5IQR = 55. There are no data outside this range, so there are no outliers. (d) x = 30.333 and s = 6.212. The mean and median are slightly dierent, so you would expect the distribution to be skewed.
3.21 (a) x = 65.5, s = 4.5098, median is the 11th piece of data when ordered = 66.1.

(b) 0.25n = 5.25 so the LQ is the 6th score = 62.3, and U Q is the sixth from the top = 68.3. IQR = 68.3 62.3 = 6, U Q + 1.5IQR = 77.3 and LQ 1.5IQR = 53.3. Only one observation is outside these limits, 77.4, and this is an outlier.

28

(c)

Modified Boxplot of Labour Force Participation

60

65

70

75

labour force participation (%)

3.22 (a) Standard treatment: LQ = 17, U Q = 56, IQR = 56 17 = 39 and range = 64 9 = 55.

Experimental treatment: LQ = 38, U Q = 59, IQR = 59 38 = 21 and range = 68 19 = 49. (b) Standard treatment: LQ1.5IQR = 41.5 and U Q+1.5IQR = 114.5, there are no outliers for the standard treatment group. Experimental treatment: LQ 1.5IQR = 6.5 and U Q + 1.5IQR = 90.5, so there are no outliers in this group. (c) The survival times are more spread out for standard treatment, and more people survive longer with the experimental treatment. The experimental treatment has a much narrower IQR. Both distributions are skewed.
Side by Side Boxplots for Different Treatments

Standard

Experimental

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

survival times (months)

3.23 Battery A: min = 548, LQ = 614, median = 710, U Q = 768 and max = 868.

Battery B: min = 590, LQ = 658, median = 748, U Q = 778 and max = 946.
Side by Side Boxplots for Battery Lifetimes

600

700

800

900

battery lifetime (days)

29

Battery B appears to last longer than Battery A due to a higher median. A has a wider interquartile range than B, i.e. more variable lifetimes.
3.24 x = 81.25, range = 178 12 = 166, s = 58.913 and variance, s2 = 3470.75. 3.25 (a) For those with job training x = 11 and s = 4.472, while for those with jail only x = 16.8 and

s = 2.775. (b) In rst group, ordered data is: 3, 10, 11, 12, 14, 16. Median is 11.5, LQ = 10 and U Q = 14. In second group ordered data is: 14, 15, 16, 18, 21 with median 16, LQ = 15 and U Q = 18. (c) IQR for job training group = 14 10 = 4 and 1.5 IQR = 6. U Q + 1.5IQR = 14 + 6 = 20. LQ 1.5IQR = 10 6 = 4. There is one data value outside of 4 and 20, so 3 is an outlier in this group. For the jail only group IQR = 18 15 = 3 and 1.5 IQR = 4.5. U Q + 4.5 = 18 + 4.5 = 22.5 while LQ 4.5 = 15 4.5 = 10.5. There are no outliers in this group. (d) Those that had training appear to reoend sooner than those in jail only.
Side by Side Boxplots for Reoffending Times

with job training

jail only

10

15

20

reoffending time (months)

3.26 x = 2.49 and s = 1.439. 3.27 (a) Class midpoints are 7.5, 12.5, 17.5, ..., 45, 75. (Note: classes are not all the same width.) Using

these, x $22175 and s $8207.1. (b) n = 200 couples, so median is the average of the 100th and 101st when listed in order. The sum of the frequencies in the rst 3 classes is 2 + 27 + 59 = 88 which is less than 100 so the median must be in the next class where we need 12 more couples to get 100 couples. So the 100th score is 12 approximately 60 of the distance from 20 to 25 thousand dollars. This class has a range of $5000 and multiplying $5000 by 12/60 we get $1000 so we need to add $1000 to the lowest boundary of $20,000 to get the 100th score at roughly $21,000. The 101st will be $5000/60 = $83.33 more, and the average of these is $21041.67.
3.28 x $7.714m and s $3.584m. 3.29 x = 51.038 and s = 0.735, for the 10th percentile np = 40 0.1 = 4, so will be half way between

4th and 5th value of the sorted data, which is 50.15. Using grouped data from the histogram, with 8 intervals, x 51.0625 and s 0.757. These values dont vary much from the actual values, the length of class intervals (0.5 grams) are small and so the dierence between midpoints and data are small. (NB: these values will vary slightly depending on the choice of class intervals.)

30

Chapter 4
Exercises In these rst exercises, we practice drawing scatterplots, and examining the shape of the data.
4.1 As part of a battery of psychological tests given to eight subjects, two tests of spatial reasoning

were given, one a test of ability to solve geometric problems which yielded a score, x and the second in which subjects were tested on their ability to judge distances, which gave a score, y. The results were:
Subject Test I score, x Test II score, y A 115 20 B 101 25 C 89 21 D 112 22 E 105 23 F 90 22 G 91 24 H 88 22

Draw a scatterplot of these scores. What does your plot suggest about the data?
4.2 The health of a lake in the central North Island is being monitored at eight sites by sampling the

dissolved oxygen level and the frequency of a trout species with the following results:
Site Mean dissolved oxygen level, x Number of trout in catchment, y A 27 42 B 12 17 C 25 35 D 26 43 E 16 27 F 15 20 G 23 39 H 16 27

Draw a scatterplot of this data and use it to comment on any relationship that seems to exist between oxygen level and numbers of sh at a site.
4.3 In a study of reaction times (ms) to two particular images shown on a computer screen (one

conventionally pleasant and one unpleasant) with ten subjects the following data was collected: Pleasant image, x Unpleasant image, y 6.5 5.7 4.5 8.6 2.0 1.9 5.0 3.7 4.5 2.2 13.0 7.8 7.4 3.4 4.5 2.2 15.9 4.0 4.0 3.4

Draw a scatterplot of these data. What does the scatterplot suggest about the relationship (if any) of the reaction times to a pleasant image compared to that of an unpleasant image?
4.4 As part of a study of the eect of group pressure on 10 subjects two tests were given. One was

a test of compliance to orders given by an authority gure (x) and the other was a score from a simulated accident in which the subject was scored on willingness to be involved (y): x: y: 87 40 105 44 94 37 123 63 120 86 124 90 89 38 132 93 113 52 124 79

Sketch a scatterplot of this data. What appears to be the relationship between the two scores? Does it seem that there may be a linear relationship between these two test scores?
4.5 The following data is on the purchase of Mori land in Wellington province from 1839 to 1876: a Region Amount acquired (10 acres) Price/acre (pence)
3

Wairarapa Wellington Wanganui Rangitikei Manawatu 3428 5.2 260 13.6 283 12.0 287 12.6 636 13.9

Draw a scatterplot of this data. Does there appear to be a relationship between these two variables? If so, what is it? (Data thanks to Brad Patterson, from McConchie, Winchester and Willis, Dynamic Wellington (2000) Institute of Geography, Victoria University.)

31

In this next set of problems, we continue to draw scatterplots, and we also calculate correlation coecients, and estimate regression lines.
4.6 Nine young adolescent women with repeated truancy from school were given several psychological

tests. In particular, their anxiety level, x, was recorded, and compared to their scores on a test measuring self-esteem, y. The following data was obtained:
Subject Anxiety level Self-esteem A 2 5 B 5 20 C 6 22 D 10 30 E 10 26 F 17 35 G 30 40 H 10 30 I 8 27

(a) Plot a scatterplot of these data. (b) Which of Pearsons or Spearmans correlation coecients seems more appropriate here? Give reasons for your answer. (c) Calculate Pearsons linear correlation coecient to 3 decimal places. (d) Rank the scores for each test and calculate Spearmans correlation coecient for this data. (e) What do you conclude about the relationship between anxiety and self-esteem in this group of young women?
4.7 List the ve correlation coecients in order, from that which indicates the weakest linear relation-

ship to that which indicates the strongest linear relationship: 0.6, 0.8, 0.5, 0.4, 0.0.
4.8 (a) Draw a sketch of a scatterplot of a population that has a correlation of approximately zero

between two characteristics X and Y . (b) On the same sketch identify a sample of that population that will have a correlation between X and Y of approximately 1.
4.9 The following statements all contain errors. Identify and explain the error(s) in each case.

(a) There is a moderately weak correlation of r = 0.3 between mens and womens wages in New Zealand. (b) The correlation between Nick Willis times for the 1500m and 3000m is a strong r = 1.21. (c) The correlation between length of prison sentence and ethnicity in Australia is r = 0.85. (d) A weak negative correlation of r = 0.18 exists between height and occupation. (e) There is an extremely weak correlation of r = 0.94 between the duration of dementia with the degree of cognitive functioning.
4.10 In a test of the reliability of memory a random sample of ten subjects aged between 18 to 25 were

seated in a room in which they believed they were about to be involved in a stimulus-reaction experiment. An eleventh person was in the room typing at a computer. Another student came into the room and angrily demanded that the eleventh student get o the computer using threats of violence and eventually left after appearing to hit the other who yelled loudly and left the room doubled up. The whole episode was videotaped. The ten subjects were then asked about the incident they had witnessed. Their recollection was scored for accuracy and their scores on an assessment of spatial ability were also recorded. The researcher was interested in whether accuracy of recollection in a three-dimensional setting is related to spatial ability. The data were as follows: Spatial ability Accuracy of recollection 8.9 60 7.9 56 7.6 53 9.2 71 9.1 68 6.3 50 8.6 59 6.4 47 7.6 53 6.5 42

(a) Draw this data on a scatterplot and calculate Pearsons correlation coecient for the data. (b) Comment on the correlation coecient obtained in (a). What does it suggest? (c) On inspection it seems likely that the accuracy of the recollection scores are rather doubtful, but we can at least be sure that a larger score is genuinely larger than a smaller one, i.e. 59 is greater than a score of 50, etc. Calculate Spearmans correlation coecient for the data. Why is it appropriate in this situation?

32

4.11 The level of dopamine in children with petit mal epilepsy is thought to be related to the number of

episodes of petit mal in a day. Eight such children were closely monitored over a two-week period and for these children the following data was collected on their frequency of episodes where 1 = almost none, 2 = occasional, 3 = regular, 4 = very frequent: Dopamine level, x Episodes of petit mal, y 6.5 1 8.3 4 7.8 3 9.7 4 8.1 3 7.5 2 7.0 2 6.1 1

Compute Spearmans correlation for this data. Why is it the appropriate correlation coecient for this data?
4.12 In the same experiment discussed in Exercise 2.22, two further questions given to the students

shown the sequence of photographs were: C: As I remember the event, I can feel the emotions that I felt then, and D: I believe the event in my memory really occurred in the way I remember it and that I have not imagined or fabricated anything that did not occur. The scores of eight students on these questions for Question C where 1 = not at all and 7 = as clearly as if it were happening right now, and for Question D where 1 = totally imaginary and 7= 100% real, are as follows: Question C Question D 2 6 5 5 3 6 5 3 7 7 6 5 5 6 3 7

(a) Calculate a Spearmans correlation coecient for the responses to the two questions. (b) What does your answer imply? (c) Why is Spearmans an appropriate correlation coecient to use in this situation?
4.13 Individuals from a business training programme are monitored in their rst year in business, and

their achievement in that rst year quantied using a range of tests. The training programme was based on a mentoring system, with young trainees paired in every case with older, more experienced people who were training for a career change. The data for the individuals are:
Team Young Trainee Mentor 1 30 23 2 44 37 3 21 7 4 17 18 5 25 10 6 22 15 7 16 13 8 28 29

(a) (b) (c) (d)

Draw a scatterplot of the data, using the mentors scores to predict the young trainees scores. Calculate Pearsons correlation coecient for the data, and interpret your gure. Now calculate Spearmans correlation coecient for the data. Which correlation do you think is most appropriate in this situation?

4.14 The metabolic rate of animals is often measured by oxygen consumption in a closed chamber.

Resting metabolic rate was measured in the Marlborough Green Gecko (Naultinus manukanus) over ve trials on successive days, to nd if the animals needed conditioning to accustom them to the chamber before resting metabolic rate could be reliably measured. The following partial data set gives the metabolic rate readings for the rst and second trial at which each individual settled enough for a reading to be taken. The measurement is volume (in mL) of oxygen per hour per unit body mass (in g). Vol1 represents the rst trial, Vol2 the second.
Gecko Vol1 Vol2 Gecko Vol1 Vol2 1 0.150 0.132 11 0.073 0.076 2 0.061 0.058 12 0.147 0.067 3 0.126 0.105 13 0.150 0.149 4 0.098 0.078 14 0.063 0.060 5 0.109 0.080 15 0.086 0.080 6 0.076 0.085 16 0.079 0.078 7 0.130 0.103 17 0.192 0.140 8 0.062 0.068 18 0.084 0.064 9 0.075 0.074 19 0.102 0.107 10 0.099 0.080 20 0.090 0.097

(a) Draw a scatterplot of this data.

33

(b) Find Pearsons correlation coecient for the relationship between the metabolic rate of the geckos in the rst trial to that in the second. (Thanks to Kelly Hare and Shirley Pledger for this data.)
4.15 In his work with suerers of Parkinsons Disease, Jared Smith obtained the following data from

nine suerers on the duration of the disease (in years) and its severity (on the Hoehn and Yahr scale of disability): Duration Severity 6 2 1 2 3.5 2 1.5 2 2.5 3 18 4 11 3 8 3 3 2

Calculate Spearmans correlation for this data. What does the result imply? (Thanks to Jared Smith for this data.)
4.16 Nine randomly selected subjects of the same sex were questioned on the degree of anxiety they felt

about their romantic attachments, e.g. by responding to items such as I rarely worry about my partner leaving me, and also on their avoidance score which is a score relating to peoples comfort with closeness in relationships, using items such as I prefer not to show a partner how I feel deep down. The data is below: Anxiety score, x Avoidance score, y 2.17 0.89 0.89 1.11 3.11 2.5 3.11 2.72 2.28 3.17 3.00 2.61 0.94 2.39 2.89 2.44 3.94 1.78

Calculate both Pearsons correlation coecient and Spearmans correlation coecient for this data. Draw a scatterplot of the data and use it to decide which of these two correlation coecients seems more appropriate. Give a reason for your decision. (Data thanks to Chris Sibley.)
4.17 The following is data from 12 randomly selected Pakeha subjects of the same sex giving their

social dominance orientation score (SDO) and their support for biculturalism in principle (SBiP). SDO measures belief in group superiority versus egalitarianism. Both scores were arrived at from responses to a number of items on a Likert scale. Scores closest to 5 are high, to 0 are low. SDO score, x 1.07 2.43 2.21 2.07 3.14 2.14 2.14 2.79 2.57 2.00 2.50 2.43 SBiP, y 3.6 3.4 3.8 3.4 3.8 3.6 2.0 4.0 3.0 2.8 3.4 3.2 Calculate Pearsons correlation coecient for this data. Comment on its value. (Data thanks to Chris Sibley.)
4.18 The following data are the percentage returns on the top ten New Zealand stocks (NZSX10), and

also for the Australian Stock Exchange (ASX) for 1990-2004.

Year NZSX10 ASX Year NZSX10 ASX 1990 0.06 0.00 1998 0.22 0.04 1991 0.25 0.00 1999 0.00 0.15 1992 0.02 0.08 2000 0.02 0.04 1993 0.04 0.05 2001 0.07 0.07 1994 0.26 0.16 2002 0.07 0.05 1995 0.03 0.01 2003 0.03 0.05 1996 0.02 0.13 2004 0.10 0.15 1997 0.14 0.18

(a) Draw a scatterplot of these data. (b) Calculate Pearsons correlation coecient for this data. Comment on its value.
4.19 Using the data for the ranking of the top ve container ports in 2001 and 2002 from Exercise 2.21,

evaluate Spearmans correlation coecient for the data for these two years. The following set of exercises are for regression, and include revision of scatterplots and correlation. 34

4.20 The levels of heavy metals in seas are an important measure of the quality of the water and its

ability to sustain sh life. Recent studies of the Baltic Sea have measured the amounts of strontium and lead (as a % of the total weight of the sample). Natural levels of these metals in the Baltic are not known but recent sampling yielded the following data: Weight of strontium, x Weight of lead, y 4.0 14 5.5 17 4.5 19 4.25 14.25 6.0 18 5.75 22 4.5 16 4.0 16

(a) Plot a scattergram of these data. (b) For this data calculate the slope, b and the intercept, a of the tted regression line. Write down the equation of the line and plot it on your scatterplot. (c) Use your regression line to predict the weight of lead, y when the weights of strontium are x = 4.0 and x = 6.0. (d) Why is it not sensible to predict the level of lead when the weight of strontium is 7.0? (Data thanks to Ross Renner.)
4.21 Residential house sales in the Wellington suburb of Karori in the rst half of 2004 included the

sample below. The sale price for each home was recorded (in $000), as well as the number of bedrooms.
Price 128 144 190 195 203 182 Bedrooms 1 2 2 2 2 3 Price 199 201 203 205 208 210 Bedrooms 3 3 3 3 3 3 Price 214 215 235 290 310 340 Bedrooms 3 3 4 4 4 4 Price 365 315 335 280 289 505 Bedrooms 4 5 5 6 6 7

(a) Plot these data using a scatterplot. (b) Estimate Pearsons correlation for these data. (c) Estimate the regression line for the data, using the number of bedrooms as the predictor variable. (d) Predict the sales prices of homes in Karori with 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, and 7 bedrooms. (Data thanks to Ron Beccard.)
4.22 Using the data in Exercise 4.10:

(a) Estimate the intercept and slope of the tted regression line to this data. Plot this tted line. (b) Estimate the proportion of the variability in the recollection scores that is explained by the regression line? (c) Use the regression line to predict the accuracy of recollection score for a subject with a spatial ability score of 6.8.
4.23 Using the data in Exercise 4.13:

(a) Estimate the regression line for these data. (b) Use the regression line to predict the score for a young trainee whose mentor got a score of 25? (c) Another mentor gets a score of 45. Why does the regression line not provide a reliable score for their young trainee in this case?
4.24 Using the data in Exercise 4.14:

(a) Estimate the intercept and slope of the tted regression line for the data. (b) Use the regression line to predict the metabolic rate for a gecko in trial 2 who had a metabolic rate of 0.070 in trial 1.
4.25 An online store has constant sales of its major product throughout the year. The manager has

kept track of her monthly advertising expenditure and the prots (both in $000) for this product over the last year. The results are:

35

Advertising 0.5 0.7 0.65 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.5 0.6 0.8 0.45 0.5 0.6 Prot 21.7 25.9 24.1 28.3 28.9 27.0 22.6 22.7 28.3 21.3 21.8 24.1 (a) Draw a scatterplot of the data, using advertising as the independent variable. (b) Estimate the regression line for this data.
4.26 Using the data from Exercise 4.17 nd the equation of the regression line using social dominance

score (SDO) as the explanatory variable. Use your regression line to predict support for biculturalism in principle scores for individuals with SDO scores of 2.5 and 3.0 respectively.
4.27 Below are data on the median income per region, x (Income) and the percentage of white collar

workers per region y (%) in New Zealand.

Region Northland Auckland Waikato Bay of Plenty Gisborne Hawkes Bay Taranaki Manawatu-Wairarapa Income 15200 21100 18100 16800 15400 16700 17300 16300 % 30.9 43.1 32.2 33.2 30.0 29.7 29.7 32.1 Region Wellington Tasman Nelson Marlborough West Coast Canterbury Otago Southland Income 22400 16100 17100 17000 14500 17600 15700 17300 % 46.4 27.1 36.0 28.5 28.1 36.1 33.4 25.4

(a) (b) (c) (d) (e)

Draw a scatterplot of this data and calculate Pearsons correlation coecient and r2 . What is the meaning of the r2 value? Do any points on your scatterplot stand out as potential outliers? Which ones? Calculate the least squares regression line for this data and plot it on your scatterplot. Use your regression line to predict the percentage of white collar workers in a region with a median annual wage of $17,500.

(Problem from Richard Willis. Data from 2001 Census: Regional summary, Statistics New Zealand.)
4.28 Using data from Exercise 4.3:

(a) Find the correlation coecient and the equation of the regression line for the study of reaction times. (b) What proportion of the variability in reaction times to the unpleasant images can be explained by the reaction times to the pleasant images? (c) Predict the reaction times to unpleasant images for subjects whose reaction times to the pleasant image were 5, 10 and 15 respectively.
4.29 In Exercise 4.4 you were asked to draw a scatterplot of compliance to orders given by an authority

gure (x) versus willingness to help in a simulated accident (y). Compute the intercept and slope of the least squares regression line for this data and draw on the scatterplot. Does the line appear to be a good t to the data?
4.30 Exercise 4.2 provides data on the health of a North Island lake. Find the regression line for this

data and predict the number of trout in the catchment for mean dissolved oxygen levels of 20 and 15. Why do these predictions not result in whole numbers of trout?
4.31 Exercise 4.1 gives the scores of eight subjects on two tests of diering aspects of spatial reasoning:

ability to solve geometric problems, x and ability to judge distances, y. (a) Find the regression line for this data. What does the equation of the line imply about the relationship between these two scores? (b) Use the regression equation to predict the ability to judge distances score for a subject with geometric problem solving score of 100. Why is it not a good idea to make a prediction for x =120?
4.32 A subset of the data from the baby tuatara rst referred to in Exercise 2.6 is shown below. Re-

member that the eggs were incubated in the lab at 18, 21 or 22 degrees Celsius. After hatching, the young tuatara had their development monitored. The measurement is SVL = snout-vent length (mm) at age 10 months. 36

C SVL

18 80

18 81

18 73

18 81

21 91

21 83

21 83

21 89

22 81

22 84

22 76

22 88

(a) Draw a scatterplot of this data and nd the Pearsons correlation coecient and the regression line for this data. (b) What do the results in (a) imply about the relationship between incubation temperature and SVL? (c) Use the regression line to predict SVLs for incubation temperatures of 18, 20, 21 and 22 C.
4.33 It has been suggested that much delinquent behaviour is related to undetected hearing impairment.

A group of ten delinquent adolescents who had all come to the attention of the courts, were scored on a psychometric index of delinquency and were also tested for hearing impairment (if any). The results were: Degree of hearing impairment (%), x 0 10 15 20 20 25 25 25 30 40 Delinquency index score, y 65 75 91 86 87 91 90 85 78 96 (a) Plot this data on a scatterplot and describe any unusual features. (b) Calculate the least squares regression line and draw it on your plot. (c) Predict delinquency index scores for adolescents with 35% and 50% hearing impairments. Which of these predictions have you least condence in and why? The nal set of exercises is for calculation of residuals.
4.34 Following Exercise 4.20:

(a) Calculate the residuals for each strontium level. (b) Draw a plot of residuals versus x for this data. What does it suggest about the assumptions required for a regression to be a reliable predictor? Give reasons for your answer. (c) How condent are you of the validity of your predictions in Exercise 4.20? Give reasons for your answer.
4.35 Following Exercise 4.10:

(a) Calculate the residuals for each of the ten subjects, and graph the spatial ability scores against these residuals. (b) Does this graph indicate whether or not the assumptions required for a regression to be valid are holding? Give reasons for your answer. (c) Explain in words what a residual represents.
4.36 Data is collected on the weekly number of calls made by a phone-salesperson over an eight-week

period, and the number of sales they actually make in each of those weeks. The training manual species sta should be making sales on at least 25% of their calls. The data are:
Week Calls Sales 1 66 20 2 43 15 3 57 18 4 32 12 5 18 2 6 59 21 7 61 18 8 32 8

(a) Draw a scatterplot of these data and comment on the suitability of linear regression to model the relationship. (b) Calculate the regression coecients and write down the estimated prediction equation. (c) Calculate the predictions for x = 20 and x = 60 and use these to superimpose the regression line on your plot. (d) Calculate the residuals for the sales for weeks 5 and 8, and interpret these numbers.
4.37 Calculate the residuals for each of the twenty geckos in Exercises 4.14 and 4.24, and graph the

metabolic rates in trial one against these residuals. Does this graph indicate whether or not the assumptions required for a regression to be valid are holding? Give reasons for your answer.
4.38 For the tuatara in Exercise 4.32:

37

(a) Find the residuals for each piece of data. (b) Graph the residuals versus incubation temperature. (c) What does this graph suggest about your regression?
4.39 Using the results from Exercise 4.33, calculate the residuals for each subject. Plot these residuals

against the explanatory variable, degree of hearing impairment. Describe any unusual features of this plot. How condent are you of the predictions made in Exercise 4.33? Why?
4.40 Calculate the residuals for all observations in Exercises 4.4 and 4.29 and plot against compliance

scores. What does this plot suggest about the validity of your regression in Exercise 4.29? Solutions
4.1 The scatterplot shows that the data is not linear. This suggests that even though both tests are

supposed to measure spatial reasoning, they must actually be measuring dierent things.
Scatterplot of Spatial Reasoning Tests
25

Test II score

20

21

22

23

24

90

95

100

105

110

115

Test I score

4.2 There is a positive linear relationship between oxygen level and number of trout. As oxygen level

increases, so does the number of trout.

Scatterplot of Lake Health

y, number of trout

30

35

40

(2) 25 20

15

20

25

x, oxygen level

4.3 There are two possible outliers (15.9, 4) and (4.5, 8.6). If these are ignored, the scatterplot shows a

positive linear relationship between x and y, so most subjects that had a fast reaction time when

38

shown a pleasant image, also had a fast reaction time when shown an unpleasant image.
Scatterplot of Reaction Times

y, unpleasant image

(2) 2

10

12

14

16

x, pleasant image

4.4 The relationship is positive, as one variable increases, the other tends to increase as well. There

appears to be a non-linear relationship. For x < 120, y doesnt increase greatly, but for x 120, y starts to increase very fast.
Scatterplot of the Effect of Group Pressure

y, willingness to be involved

40

50

60

70

80

90

90

100

110

120

130

x, orders from authority

4.5 There doesnt seem to be a relationship between the two variables. A possible relationship could

be negative - as the amount of land acquired increases, the price/acre decreases, but we would need more data to conrm this. If the data from the Wairarapa is omitted, the price and amount are fairly constant for the remaining data.

39

Scatterplot of Maori Land Purchases

14

Price/acre (pence)

10

12

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

Amount acquired (x1000 acres)

4.6 (a)
40

Scatterplot of Anxiety and Selfesteem

30

35

(2)

Selfesteem

10

15

20

25

10

15

20

25

30

Anxiety level

(b) Although the data are measurements, the relationship is not linear, so Spearmans is preferred. (c) r = 0.833. (d) Anxiety, x Self-esteem, y r(x) r(y) d d2
2 5 6 10 10 17 30 10 8 5 20 22 30 26 35 40 30 27 1 2 3 6 6 8 9 6 4 1 2 3 6.5 4 8 9 6.5 5 0 0 0 -0.5 2 0 0 -0.5 -1 0 0 0 0.25 4 0 0 0.25 1

d2 = 5.5 and rs = 1 65.5 = 0.954. i 720 (e) There is a strong positive (non-linear) relationship between anxiety level and self-esteem.
4.7 (Weakest) 0.0, -0.4, 0.5, 0.6, -0.8 (Strongest). 4.8 (a) The scatterplot (below) has a random pattern of points, so r 0.

(b) looking at the sample of circled points on the scatterplot, we get a positive linear pattern with r close to 1.

40

O O 5 y

3 x

4.9 (a) Observations need to be made on each individual for both variables. One person cannot have a

mans wage, and a womans wage. (b) 1 r 1, so r cant be 1.21. (c) You cant nd a correlation with a categorical variable (ethnicity). (d) r = 0.18 is positive, not negative. Occupation is categorical. (e) r = 0.94 is very close to 1, so this a strong correlation.
4.10 (a) r = 0.925
Scatterplot of Recollection

Accuracy of recollection

55

60

65

70

(2) 50 45

6.5

7.0

7.5

8.0

8.5

9.0

Spatial ability

(b) The correlation coecient is positive and close to one. This means there is a strong, positive linear relationship between spatial ability and accuracy of recollection. (c) Spatial, x Accuracy, y r(x) r(y) d d2
8.9 7.9 7.6 9.2 9.1 6.3 8.6 6.4 7.6 6.5 60 56 53 71 68 50 59 47 53 42 8 6 4.5 10 9 1 7 2 4.5 3 8 6 4.5 10 9 3 7 2 4.5 1 0 0 0 0 0 -2 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 4 0 0 0 4

d2 = 8 and rs = 1 i

68 990

= 0.952 (3dp).

41

Spearmans is appropriate because while we are unsure of the actual values, we are condent that the data are ordinal, and so rankings based on these scores will be accurate.
4.11 Spearmans is appropriate here as number of episodes is discrete.
Dopamine, x

6.5 8.3 7.8 9.7 8.1 7.5 7.0 6.1

Episodes, y 1 4 3 4 3 2 2 1

r(x)

2 7 5 8 6 4 3 1

r(y) 1.5 7.5 5.5 7.5 5.5 3.5 3.5 1.5

d 0.5 -0.5 -0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 -0.5 -0.5

d2 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25

d2 = 2 and rs = 1 i
4.12 (a)

62 504

= 0.976.
Question D 6 5 6 3 7 5 6 7
r(C)

Question C

2 5 3 5 7 6 5 3

1 5 2.5 5 8 7 5 2.5

r(D) 5 2.5 5 1 7.5 2.5 5 7.5

d -4 2.5 -2.5 4 0.5 4.5 0 -5

d2 16 6.25 6.25 16 0.25 20.25 0.25 25

d2 = 90.25 and rs = 1 690.25 = 0.0744. i 504 (b) This is a very weak negative relationship. There is virtually no regular pattern between scores on these two questions. (c) Scores are ordinal only. The score 2 is not twice the score 1, but is more than it, etc.
4.13 (a)
45

Scatterplot of Mentoring

trainee

15

20

25

30

35

40

10

15

20

25

30

35

mentor

(b) r = 0.808, there is a strong positive linear relationship between mentors score and the trainees score. (c) r(x) r(y) d d2 Mentor, x Trainee, y
23 37 7 18 10 15 13 29 30 44 21 17 25 22 16 28 6 8 1 5 2 4 3 7 7 8 3 2 5 4 1 6 -1 0 -2 3 -3 0 2 1 1 0 4 9 9 0 4 1

d2 = 28 and rs = 1 628 = 0.667. i 504 (d) It is unlikely that these scores are genuine measurements, they are much more likely to be

42

ordinal data, so Spearmans is more appropriate.

4.14 (a)
Scatterplot of Gecko Metabolic Rate

Vol2 (mL/gram)

0.06 0.06

0.08

0.10

0.12

0.14

0.08

0.10

0.12

0.14

0.16

0.18

Vol1 (mL/gram)

(b) r = 0.793.
4.15
Duration, x

6 1 3.5 1.5 2.5 18 11 8 3

Severity, y 2 2 2 2 3 4 3 3 2

r(x)

6 1 5 2 3 9 8 7 4

r(y) 3 3 3 3 7 9 7 7 3

d 3 -2 2 -1 -4 0 1 0 1

d2 9 4 4 1 16 0 1 0 1

d2 = 36 and rs = 1 636 = 0.7. This implies that there is a strong positive relationship i 720 between duration and severity of Parkinsons disease, i.e. severity increases over time.
4.16 Pearsons r = 0.299.

Anxiety, x

2.17 0.89 3.11 3.11 2.28 3.00 0.94 2.89 3.94

Avoidance, y 0.89 1.11 2.5 2.72 3.17 2.61 2.39 2.44 1.78

r(x)

3 1 7.5 7.5 4 6 2 5 9

r(y) 1 2 6 8 9 7 4 5 3

d 2 -1 1.5 -0.5 -5 -1 -2 0 6

d2 4 1 2.25 0.25 25 1 4 0 36

d2 = 73.5 and rs = 1 673.5 = 0.3875. i 720 The data is widely scattered and hard to see whether there is a linear relationship, so Spearmans is more appropriate.

43

Scatterplot of Avoidance vs. Anxiety

Avoidance, y

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

Anxiety, x

4.17 r = 0.192. There is a weak positive relationship between social dominance orientation score and

support for biculturalism in principle.

4.18 (a)

Scatterplot of Stock Exchange Returns

ASX
0.05 0.00 0.05

0.10

0.15

0.2

0.1

0.0

0.1

0.2

NZSX10

(b) r = 0.558. There is a moderate positive relationship between the NZSX and ASX. If one market value goes up, the other is also likely to rise.
4.19 Shanghai and Kaohsiung switch rankings from 2001 to 2002, but all other rankings are the same.

d2 = 2 and rs = 1 i

62 120

= 0.9.

44

4.20 (a)
22

Scatterplot of Heavy Metals in Baltic Sea

Lead (% total weight)

14

16

18

20

4.0

4.5

5.0

5.5

6.0

Strontium (% total weight)

(b) Slope b = 2.26 and intercept a = 6.18. Equation of regression line is y = 6.18 + 2.26x. (c) When x = 4.0, y = 15.2 and when x = 6.0, y = 19.71. (d) We should not predict for x = 7 as it is outside the original range of data.
4.21 (a)
500

Scatterplot of Residential House Sales

Price ($000)

200

300

400

no. of bedrooms

(b) r = 0.848. (c) Slope b = 49.00 and intercept a = 74.82. Equation of regression line is y = 74.82 + 49.00x. (d) x = 1 gives y = 123.82, x = 2 gives y = 172.83, x = 3 gives y = 221.83, x = 4 gives y = 270.83, x = 5 gives y = 319.84, x = 6 gives y = 368.84, and x = 7 gives y = 417.85.
4.22 (a) Slope b = 7.35 and intercept a = 1.48. Equation of regression line is y = 1.48 + 7.35x.

45

Scatterplot of Recollection

Accuracy of recollection

55

60

65

70

(2) 50 45

6.5

7.0

7.5

8.0

8.5

9.0

Spatial ability

(b) r2 = 0.8555 (c) When x = 6.8, y = 1.48 + 7.35 6.8 = 48.5.

4.23 (a) Slope b = 0.72 and intercept a = 11.77. Equation of regression line is y = 11.77 + 0.72x.

(b) When x = 25, y = 11.77 + 0.72 25 = 29.67. (c) It does not provide a reliable score as x = 45 is just outside the data range.
4.24 (a) Slope b = 0.581 and intercept a = 0.029.

(b) When x = 0.070, y = 0.029 + 0.581 0.070 = 0.07 (2dp).

4.25 (a)
Scatterplot of Advertising and Profit

profit ($000)
22 0.45 24

26

28

0.50

0.55

0.60

0.65

0.70

0.75

0.80

advertising ($000)

(b) Slope b = 21.47 and intercept a = 11.13. Equation of regression line is y = 11.13 + 21.47x.
4.26 (a) Slope b = 0.206 and intercept a = 2.861. Equation of regression line is y = 2.861 + 0.206x.

(b) When x = 2.5, predict support for biculturalism score y = 3.38. When x = 3.0, predict y = 3.48.
4.27 (a) r = 0.816, r2 = 0.665.

46

Scatterplot of Income and White Collar Workers

white collar workers (%)

25

30

35

40

45

16000

18000

20000

22000

income ($)

(b) r2 is the proportion of variability of % white collar workers than is explained by income. (c) Southland (17300, 25.4) is a possible outlier. Wellington and Auckland have much larger income values than the other regions. (d) Slope is b = 0.00224 and intercept a = 5.831. Equation of regression line is y = 5.831 + 0.00224x. (e) y = 5.831 + 0.00224 17500 = 33.37%.
4.28 (a) r = 0.357. b = 0.192, a = 3.000, and the regression line equation is y = 3.000 + 0.192x.

(b) r2 = 0.128, i.e. 12.8%. (c) x = 5 gives y = 3.958, x = 10 gives y = 4.917, x = 15 gives y = 5.875.
4.29 a = 78.610, b = 1.267.
Scatterplot of the Effect of Group Pressure

y, willingness to be involved

40

50

60

70

80

90

90

100

110

120

130

x, orders from authority

All of the data lie close to the regression line but between 90 and 120, the regression equation overestimates, and for other values underestimates. When checking the residuals of our regression, there would be a clear pattern. The data is not linear.
4.30 Slope b = 1.633 and intercept a = 1.417. Equation of regression line is y = 1.417 + 1.633x.

When x = 20, y = 1.417 + 1.633 20 = 31.250. When x = 15, y = 1.417 + 1.633 15 = 23.083. These predictions dont result in whole numbers because these are predicted trout numbers and

47

are essentially averages for all likely situations when x = 20 and x = 15.
4.31 (a) Equation of regression line is y = 25.424 0.031x. The slope is negative, so as one score

increases, the other tends to decrease. (b) When x = 100, y = 25.424 0.031 100 = 22.340. It is not a good idea to predict for x = 120 because this is outside of the data range.

4.32 (a) r = 0.437. Regression line is y = 56.69 + 1.27x.

Scatterplot of Young Tuatara

SVL (mm)

85

90

(2)

(2) 80 75

18

19

20

21

22

temperature

(b) There is a moderate positive relationship between incubation temperature and SVL, i.e. as one increases, the other tends to increase. (c) Predicted SVLs for incubation temperatures of 18, 20, 21, and 22 C are 79.54, 82.08, 83.35, and 84.62 respectively.
4.33 (a) It looks like two dierent regression lines could be tted to the data. If the values at x = 0, 10

and 40 were considered outliers you would get a negatively sloped regression line through the rest of the data, but in general as hearing loss increases so does delinquency index.
Scatterplot of Delinquency

Delinquency index score

65

70

75

80

85

90

95

10

20

30

40

hearing impairment (%)

(b) y = 71.280 + 0.625x. (c) For x = 35 we predict y = 93.147, and for x = 50 we predict y = 102.518. We dont have condence in the latter prediction because its outside of the data range.

48

4.34 (a) The residuals are: -1.199, -1.582, 2.673, -1.513, -1.709, 2.855, -0.327, 0.801.

(b) There appears to be a relatively even band of points above and below zero (all within 3) and there is no obvious pattern. This suggests the residuals are symmetric about zero, with constant variance.
Residual Plot of Heavy Metals in Baltic Sea
3

Residuals
1 0

4.0

4.5

5.0

5.5

6.0

Strontium (% total weight)

(c) From (b), we can be condent of our predictions as it supports that the data is linear and the regression is valid.
4.35 (a) The residuals are: -3.908, -0.561, -1.357, 4.888, 2.622, 5.194, -2.704, 1.459, -1.357, -4.275.
Residual Plot for Recollection

Residuals

6.5

7.0

7.5

8.0

8.5

9.0

Spatial Ability

(b) The constant variance assumption appears to hold because there are constant bands of residuals centered around 0, i.e. no funneling. There does appear to be a pattern in the residuals as the only positive residuals are near the extreme values of spatial ability. Regression lines are sensitive to outliers which is a possible cause of this. (c) A residual is the dierence between the observed value and the value predicted by the regression line. It is the vertical distance between the line and the point.
4.36 (a) The scatterplot looks to have a strong positive linear trend and both variables are quantitative,

so linear regression seems appropriate.

49

Scatterplot for Phonesales

Sales
5 10

15

20

20

30

40

50

60

Number of Calls

(b) Slope b = 0.362 and intercept a = 2.398. Equation of regression line is y = 2.398 + 0.362x (c) y = 4.840 and 19.317 respectively. These are indicated on the graph by black circles. (d) The residual for week 5 is -2.117, and for week 8 is -1.183. For both weeks, the regression equation over-predicts the number of sales.
4.37 The residuals are: 0.015, -0.007, 0.002, -0.008, -0.013, 0.0115, -0.002, 0.003, 0.001, -0.007, 0.004,

-0.048, 0.032, -0.006, 0.001, 0.003, -0.001, -0.014, 0.018, 0.015.

Residual Plot for Geckos

residuals

0.04 0.06

0.02

0.00

0.02

0.08

0.10

0.12

0.14

0.16

0.18

metabolic rate

There appears to be funneling, which would mean that there is not constant variance, and this implies that our regression is not valid. The point (0.147, 0.048) looks like an outlier.
4.38 (a) The residuals are: 0.46, 1.46, -6.54, 1.46, 7.65, -0.35, -0.35, 5.65, -3.62, -0.62, -8.62, 3.38.

50

(b)

Residual Plot for Tuatara

(2)

residuals

(2)

18

19

20

21

22

temperature

(c) Graph of x versus residuals suggests possible outlier at (18, 6.54). If this is so, then there is possible funneling in the graph indicating non-constant variance. Also, whether or not this point is included, there is a clear curve beginning at (18, 6.54) going up to (21, 7.65) and then down to (22, 8.62). so there are reasons to doubt whether the assumptions required for regression to be valid are holding.
4.39 The residuals are: -6.280, -2.528, 10.349, 2.225, 3.225, 4.101, 3.101, -1.899, -12.023, -0.271.
Residual Plot for Delinquency

residuals

10

10

10

20

30

40

hearing impairment

(15, 10.349) and (30, 12.023) are probably outliers which is consistent with Exercise 4.33. Only x values between 20 and 25 have positive residuals, so we might doubt our predictions because our residuals do not look random. Otherwise even bands above and below zero (roughly between 12) and no funneling so its possible the regression is valid.
4.40 The residuals are: 8.345, -10.469, -3.527, -14.282, 12.520, 11.450, 3.810, 4.311, -12.608, 0.450. There

is a clear curved pattern in the residuals, so we would doubt our predictions in Exercise 4.29.

51

Residual Plot for Effect of Group Pressure

residuals

15

10

10

90

100

110

120

130

compliance

52

Chapter 5
Exercises
5.1 Which of the following are independent events, or, in the case of some real-life examples, almost

independent? (a) The size of a student loan is over $10,000 and the student is studying for a medical degree. (b) New Zealand student, Nick Willis makes the nals in the 1500m at the 2004 Olympics and the Evers-Swindell sisters win gold in the Olympic 2000m double sculls. (c) It is raining in Auckland and raining in Hokitika. (d) The length of sentence in a criminal conviction is over 12 months and the crime is grievous bodily harm. (e) Having prostate cancer and returning a positive test for prostate cancer. (f) An area has a high level of overcrowding and the incidence of TB in that area is high. (g) The stoat population in an area is high and the size of the kiwi population in that area is low. (h) Global warming is increasing and the sheep and cow populations in New Zealand are increasing. (i) Oil prices are high and the situation in the Middle East is unstable.
5.2 Which of the following are mutually exclusive events?

(a) The event that Nick Willis won the 1500m at Athens, 2004 and the event that he came second. (b) The event that Nick Willis won the 1500m at Athens, 2004 and the event that he put in a personal best time in that event. (c) The event of passing a 100-level statistics course and that of having to retake the course. (d) The event of passing a 100-level statistics course and that of passing a 200-level statistics course. (e) The event of having a student loan of less than $20,000 and that of having one more than $25,000. (f) The event that a rash turns out to be measles and the event that it turns out to be chicken pox. This second set of exercises gives practice with drawing probability trees, and using them to nd probabilities.
5.3 Toxemia is a potentially dangerous condition of pregnancy which is more likely to occur in diabetic

mothers than non-diabetics. About 2% of the general female population are diabetic and of these, 25% are likely to develop toxemia during pregnancy. In the non-diabetic female population, 4.6% develop toxemia during pregnancy. Consider a randomly selected pregnant woman. (a) (b) (c) (d) Draw a tree diagram representing all possible outcomes for this woman. Attach to the diagram the probabilities for each branch and outcome. What is the probability a diabetic woman completes her pregnancy without toxemia? What is the probability that a pregnant woman develops toxemia?

5.4 A survey was conducted of bail decisions in the district court over a three-month period. In that

period all defendants fell into three groups: Mori (M), Pacic Islands (P) or European (E). Fifty a percent were European and of these 80% were granted bail (B). Thirty-ve percent were Mori and a of these 40% were granted bail. In the case of Pacic Islands defendants, 60% were not granted bail. (a) Draw a tree diagram showing all the possible outcomes for a randomly selected defendant in this time period. (b) Write the appropriate probabilities on each branch of the tree and calculate the probabilities of all outcomes and write them on the right-hand side of the tree. (c) Calculate the probability that a randomly selected defendant will have been granted bail.
5.5 A survey was conducted in two areas of greater Wellington, Mana (M) and Lower Hutt (L) in order

to evaluate policing needs and levels of victimisation in these areas. Forty percent of the survey area population live in Mana and of these, 18% had experienced oences against their person (O). In Lower Hutt, 13% of residents had been the victim of oences against their person. 53

(a) Draw a tree diagram showing all of the possible outcomes for a randomly selected person from the Mana-Lower Hutt region. (b) Write the appropriate probabilities on each branch of the tree and calculate the probabilities of all outcomes. (c) Calculate the probability that a randomly selected person from the region will have been the victim of an oence against their person.
5.6 An experiment with rats involves a maze with only two routes available. The choice is whether

to swim across a water hazard to where a reward of food can be seen (WET), or to take a longer dry route (DRY) where there is no visible reward. Sixty percent of the rats have recently been fed (FULL) and 40% have not been fed for a day (HUNGRY). Of the full rats 60% chose the wet route and 20% of the hungry rats chose the dry route. (a) Draw a tree diagram showing all the possible outcomes for a randomly selected rat with the appropriate probabilities on each branch of the tree. (b) Calculate the probabilities of all outcomes and write them on the right-hand side of the tree. (c) Calculate the probability that a randomly selected rat will choose the wet route.
5.7 A group of young men from Hawkes Bay, who had all at one time been on the CYPS register of

children at risk, were followed up at age 19. Forty percent of these young men were found to be gang members (G) and 15% were gang prospects (P). The remainder had no gang aliations (N). The history of these young men in the criminal justice system was investigated and the maximum penalty they had incurred to date was recorded. Each fell into one of three categories: custodial sentence, no convictions, ne and/or community service. Of the gang members, 8% had had no convictions, 52% had incurred a ne and/or community service while the remainder had already served a custodial sentence. Sixty percent of the gang prospects had had a ne and/or community service and 30% had served a custodial sentence. Of those with no gang aliations 50% had no convictions and 10% had custodial sentences. (a) Consider a randomly selected young man from this group and draw a tree diagram representing all possible outcomes for this young man. Attach to the diagram the appropriate probabilities for each branch and outcome. (b) What is the probability that such a randomly selected 19-year-old male has no gang aliations and has served a custodial sentence? (c) What is the probability that the randomly selected 19-year-old has already served a custodial sentence?
5.8 Exercise 3.13 gave data on the cost of power generation in New Zealand in the mid-1980s. Consider

a randomly selected power station of that era. The probability that the power station is a hydrostation is 21/37. If hydro-powered, the probability of it producing power at less than 1 cent per kW is 20/21, but if not hydro-powered, the probability of it producing power at less than 1 cent per kW is only 25%. What is the probability that a randomly selected power station produces power at less than 1 cent per kW?
5.9 In New Zealand, 5% of the population belong to one of the Pacic Island groups (P), 15% are Mori a

(M) and the rest are European or Other (EO). In the 2001 census, a family was dened as one or two parent(s) and their children living in the same household (C) or a same household couple without children (NC). Dierent groups in New Zealand have very dierent proportions of these two family types. Of the Pacic Island group, the proportion of families living as a couple without children (NC) is a low 8%, for the Mori population it is 12%, while amongst the European and a Other group it is much higher at 28.5%. (a) Consider a randomly selected family in New Zealand and draw a tree diagram of all possible outcomes for that family. (b) What is the probability that a randomly selected family consists of a couple with no children? What percentage is this? (Data based on gures published by Statistics New Zealand.)
5.10 In a study of the eect of health levels on the ability of an individual to save for retirement a large

sample was taken from the population of over-40-year-olds. In this group 45% were classied as 54

having a low level of health (L) and the remainder had a satisfactory or high health level (H). Of those with satisfactory to high health levels, 80% were saving for retirement (S) in an adequate way. Of those with low health levels 30% were not saving adequately (N). Consider a randomly selected person from this sample. (a) Draw a tree diagram representing all possible outcomes for the persons health level and saving behaviour with appropriate probabilities on each branch. (b) Calculate the probabilities of all possible outcomes. (c) What is the probability that a person has a low health level and is managing to save adequately for retirement? (d) What is the probability that a person is not saving adequately for retirement?
5.11 When real estate is listed for sale, it can either be with a sole agent, or listed by multiple real estate

agents. Approximately 95% of listings are sole listings. When the house does not sell in the rst month, the probability of it selling in the second month if it is a sole listing is 40%, whereas if it has multiple listings, the probability is 20%. (a) Draw a probability tree describing this situation. (b) For a randomly selected house that has not sold within the rst month, what is the probability that it sells in the second month?
5.12 In a South Auckland community, 20% of children at primary school were identied as failing to

learn in a way commensurate with development (F). Of these children, 30% were subsequently found to have a psychological problem such as dyslexia, and 50% were found to have a physical problem such as glue ear. The remainder had no discernible cause for their failure to learn. The children who were not failing to learn were also tested and a surprising 2% had a physical problem while 5% had a psychological problem. (a) Consider a randomly selected child from this community and draw a tree diagram representing all possible outcomes for this child. (b) Calculate the probabilities of all of the possible outcomes associated with this tree diagram. What is the probability that such a randomly selected child is not identied as having any impairment to learning and has a physical problem? (c) What is the probability that the randomly selected child has a psychological problem? What percentage of children is this?
5.13 Males (M) are more likely to be aected with schizophrenia than females (F) and have a chance

of being aected with schizophrenia of 0.3%, while females have a chance of 0.2 in 100. A drug treatment (D) used only in schizophrenia is more likely to be used with males with whom it is more successful, and the probability that it is prescribed for them is 0.7. The probability that it is prescribed for a female suerer is 0.4. (a) In a community of equal numbers of males and females, consider a randomly selected member of this community and draw a tree diagram representing all possible outcomes for this individuals gender, mental health and treatment. (b) Attach to the diagram the probabilities for each branch and outcome. (c) What is the probability that such a randomly selected individual is male with schizophrenia and not receiving the drug treatment? (d) What is the probability that a randomly selected individual is receiving the drug treatment? (e) Draw up a probability distribution in this situation, i.e. a list of outcomes and their associated probabilities.
5.14 In a particular part of the North Island in New Zealand two varieties of a Hebe plant are found,

macroura (M) and atkinsonii (A). 70% of Hebes in this region are of variety M. Plants are classied as M or A in the eld by looking at leaf length and this method is not perfect. Variety M is correctly identied (C) by this method 60% of the time, and there is a 6% chance of an A plant being incorrectly identied using this method. (a) Draw a tree diagram showing the possible outcomes for a randomly selected Hebe from this area and calculate the probabilities for all possible outcomes.

55

(b) Calculate the probability that a randomly selected Hebe plant is correctly identied by this method. (c) Draw up a probability distribution in this situation, i.e. a list of outcomes and their associated probabilities.
5.15 A sociologist is studying the relationship within families of the highest educational level achieved.

Pairs of brothers, where both are aged between 30 and 50, were investigated. In this group 5% of the elder brothers had primary school education only while 80% had a secondary education and the remainder had some tertiary education. Of those elder brothers who had primary education only, 80% had a younger brother who also had primary school education only, while none had a younger brother with tertiary education. Of those elder brothers with secondary education only, 50% had younger brothers who also had secondary level education and 10% had younger brothers with primary education only. Forty percent of those elder brothers with tertiary education had younger brothers who also had tertiary level education while the remainder had brothers with secondary level education. (a) Draw a tree diagram showing all possible outcomes for a randomly selected pair of brothers in the study age group. (b) Calculate the probabilities of all possible outcomes. (c) Calculate the probability that a randomly selected pair of brothers in the study age group have the same highest level of education. (d) Calculate the probability that a randomly selected pair of brothers in the study age group have a dierent highest level of education (e) Calculate the probability that a randomly selected pair of brothers in the study age group have the younger brother with a higher level of education than the elder. (f) Draw up a probability distribution in this situation, i.e. a list of outcomes and their associated probabilities. This nal set of exercises gives practice using Bayes rule. Most of these problems require you to have completed one of the earlier exercises.
5.16 In Exercise 5.3, use the tree diagram to nd the proportion of those women developing toxemia

that are non-diabetic?

5.17 In Exercise 5.4, what proportion of those granted bail in the district court are Mori? a 5.18 In Exercise 5.5, what is the probability that a person who had been the victim of an oence against

their person comes from Mana?

5.19 In Exercise 5.7, referring to young men in Hawkes Bay who had at one time been on the CYPS

register, what proportion of those young men who had incurred a ne and/or community service were gang members?
5.20 In Exercise 5.8, what is the probability that a power station that produces power at less than 1

cent per kW is a hydro-station?

5.21 In Exercise 5.9, what percentage of families with no children in New Zealand are Pacic Island

families?
5.22 Twenty percent of products in a small supermarket have very short lifespans, i.e. they go o quickly.

Of these short lifespan products, there is a 30% chance that a randomly selected item is past its use-by date, whereas with the longer lasting products, there is only a 12% chance that it is past its use-by date. What is the probability that a product past its use-by date is a long-lasting product?
5.23 Following from Exercise 5.11, if a randomly selected house was sold in the second month, what is

the probability that it was a sole listed property?

5.24 In Exercise 5.12, in the South Auckland community studied, what percentage of children with

psychological problems are failing to learn?

56

5.25 Consider a hypothetical town with population 10,000 in which a man is suspected of a crime. His

blood matches a stain found at the scene some time after the crime was committed. 1% of the population will have matching blood. Because in this case the stain is somewhat degraded, the probability of getting a match even if the blood is identical is 0.95. (a) Draw a tree of the dierent possibilities of the man being guilty or not and his blood matching or not. (b) Find the probability of a match. (c) Find the probability that this man is guilty of the crime and his blood matches. (d) If there is a match, nd the probability that the man is guilty. (Use Bayes rule.) Solutions
5.1 (a) This certainly wasnt independent in the mid-90s when general academic fees were small, how-

ever, with the rise of fees for general courses, these events are probably close to being independent. (b) Independent events, unlikely to aect each others performance except in terms of overall morale. (c) Loosely independent, associated with overall weather in New Zealand. (d) Not independent, if you commit grievous bodily harm, you are likely to get a sentence longer than a year. (e) Not independent, it is less likely to get a false positive. (f) Not independent, TB is related to poor housing. (g) Not independent, the size of the kiwi population is directly (inversely) related to the predator population. (h) Not independent, global warming and stock population are likely to be related, due to the release of methane gas. (i) Not independent, the Middle East is a major source of oil.
5.2 (a) Mutually exclusive, you cant come rst and second in a race.

(b) Not mutually exclusive, you can win and have a personal best in one race. (c) Mutually exclusive, if you pass, you will not have to retake. (d) Not mutually exclusive, to pass a second year course, you usually need to pass a rst year course rst. (e) Mutually exclusive, your student loan cannot be less than $20k and more than a larger value. (f) Mutually exclusive, it cannot be both measles and chicken pox.
5.3 (a) and (b) Dene D = {woman diabetic} and T = {toxemia develops}.
0.25 D 0.02 0.75 T T P (D and T ) = 0.02 0.75 = 0.01500 P (D and T ) = 0.98 0.046 = 0.04508 T P (D and T ) = 0.02 0.25 = 0.00500

0.98 D

0.046

0.954

P (D and T ) = 0.98 0.954 = 0.93492

(c) P (diabetic woman completes her pregnancy without toxemia) = 0.75 = 75%. (d) P (T ) = 0.005 + 0.04508 = 5.008%.

57

5.4 (a) and (b) Dene M = {Mori}, P = {Pacic Islands}, E = {European} and B = {granted bail}. a
0.4 M 0.6 0.35 0.15 0.4 P 0.6 0.5 0.8 E 0.2 B P (E and B) = 0.5 0.2 = 0.1 B P (E and B) = 0.5 0.8 = 0.4 B P (P and B) = 0.15 0.6 = 0.09 B B P (M and B) = 0.35 0.6 = 0.21 P (P and B) = 0.15 0.4 = 0.06 B P (M and B) = 0.35 0.4 = 0.14

(c) P (B) = 0.14 + 0.06 + 0.40 = 0.6 = 60%.

5.5 (a) and (b) Dene M = {Mana} and O = {oended against}.
0.18 M 0.4 0.82 O O P (M and O) = 0.4 0.82 = 0.328 P (M and O) = 0.6 0.13 = 0.078 O P (M and O) = 0.4 0.18 = 0.072

0.6 M

0.13

0.87

P (M and O) = 0.6 0.87 = 0.522

(c) P (O) = 0.072 + 0.078 = 0.15 = 15%.

5.6 (a) and (b) Dene F = {full} and W = {chooses wet}.
0.6 F 0.6 0.4 W W P (F and W ) = 0.6 0.4 = 0.24 P (F and W ) = 0.4 0.8 = 0.32 W P (F and W ) = 0.6 0.6 = 0.36

0.4 F

0.8

0.2

P (F and W ) = 0.4 0.2 = 0.08

(c) P (W ) = P (F and W ) + P (F and W ) = 0.36 + 0.32 = 0.68 = 68%.

5.7 (a) Dene G = {gang member}, P = {prospect}, N = {no gang aliation}, N C = {no convictions},

58

F = {ne and/or community service}, and C = {custodial sentence}.

G 0.4 0.15

N C P (G and N C) = 0.4 0.08 = 0.032 0.08 0.52 F P (G and F ) = 0.4 0.52 = 0.208 0.4 0.1 C NC 0.6 0.3 F C NC 0.4 0.1 F C P (G and C) = 0.4 0.4 = 0.16 P (P and N C) = 0.15 0.1 = 0.015

P (P and F ) = 0.15 0.6 = 0.09 P (P and C) = 0.15 0.3 = 0.045 P (N and F ) = 0.45 0.4 = 0.18 P (N and C) = 0.45 0.1 = 0.045 P (N and N C) = 0.45 0.5 = 0.225

0.45 0.5 N

(b) P (N and C) = 0.045 = 4.5%. (c) P (C) = 0.16 + 0.045 + 0.045 = 0.25 = 25%.
5.8 P (produces < 1%) = P (Hydro and produces < 1%) + P (not Hydro and produces < 1%) =
21 37

20 21

16 37

1 4

20 37

4 37

= 0.649 = 65%.

5.9 (a) Dene P = {Pacic Islands}, M = {Mori}, EO = {European or Other} and C = {parents a

and children living in same household}.

0.08 P 0.92 0.05 0.15 0.12 M 0.88 0.8 0.285 EO 0.715

C C C C C C

P (P and C) = 0.05 0.08 = 0.004 P (P and C) = 0.05 0.92 = 0.046 P (M and C) = 0.15 0.12 = 0.018 P (M and C) = 0.15 0.88 = 0.132 P (EO and C) = 0.8 0.285 = 0.228 P (EO and C) = 0.8 0.715 = 0.572

(b) P (C) = 0.004 + 0.018 + 0.0228 = 0.25.

5.10 (a) and (b) Dene L = {low health} and S = {adequate savings}.
0.7 L 0.45 0.3 S S P (L and S) = 0.45 0.3 = 0.135 P (L and S) = 0.55 0.8 = 0.440 S P (L and S) = 0.45 0.7 = 0.315

0.55 L

0.8

0.2

P (L and S) = 0.55 0.2 = 0.110

(c) P (L and S) = 0.315 = 31.5% (from tree diagram). (d) P (S) = 0.135 + 0.11 = 0.245 = 24.5%.

59

5.11 (a) Dene S = {sole listing} and Q = {sells in the second month}.
Q 0.4 S 0.95 0.6 Q Q 0.05 S 0.8 Q 0.2

P (S and Q) = 0.95 0.4 = 0.38

P (S and Q) = 0.95 0.6 = 0.57 P (S and Q) = 0.05 0.2 = 0.01

P (S and Q) = 0.05 0.8 = 0.04

(b) P (Q) = 0.38 + 0.01 = 0.39 = 39%.

5.12 (a) and (b) Dene F = {failing to learn}, P s = {psychological problem}, P h = {physical problem}

and N = {no problem}.

0.3 F 0.2 0.5 0.2

Ps Ph N Ps Ph N

P (F and P s) = 0.2 0.3 = 0.060 P (F and P h) = 0.2 0.5 = 0.100 P (F and N ) = 0.2 0.2 = 0.040 P (F and P s) = 0.8 0.05 = 0.040 P (F and P h) = 0.8 0.02 = 0.016 P (F and N ) = 0.8 0.93 = 0.744

0.8 F

0.05 0.02 0.93

(b) P (F and P h) = 0.016 = 1.6% (from tree diagram). (c) P (P s) = 0.06 + 0.04 = 0.10 = 10%.
5.13 (a) and (b) Dene M = {male} and F = {female}, A = {aected}, and D = {prescribed the

drug}.

0.7 0.003 M 0.5 0.997 A 0.3

D D A

P (M, A, D) = 0.5 0.003 0.7 = 0.00105 P (M, A, D) = 0.5 0.003 0.3 = 0.00045 P (M, A) = 0.5 0.997 = 0.4985 P (F, A, D) = 0.5 0.002 0.4 = 0.0004 P (F, A, D) = 0.5 0.002 0.6 = 0.0006 P (F, A) = 0.5 0.998 = 0.499

0.4 0.5 F 0.998 0.002 A 0.6

D D A

(c) P (M and A and D) = 0.00045 = 0.045% (from tree diagram). (d) P (D) = 0.00105 + 0.0004 = 0.00145 = 0.145% (e) P (M, A, D) = 0.00105, P (M, A, D) = 0.00045, P (M, A) = 0.4985, P (F, A, D) = 0.0004, = 0.0006, and P (F, A) = 0.4990. P (F, A, D)

60

5.14 (a) Dene M = {variety M} and C = {correctly identied}.

0.6 M 0.7 0.4 C C C

P (M and C) = 0.7 0.6 = 0.420

P (M and C) = 0.7 0.4 = 0.280 P (M and C) = 0.3 0.94 = 0.282

0.3 M

0.94

0.06

P (M and C) = 0.3 0.06 = 0.018

(b) P (C) = 0.42 + 0.282 = 0.702. (c) Outcomes: M identied correctly, with probability = 0.42, M not identied with probability = 0.28, A identied correctly, with probability = 0.282 and A not identied, with probability = 0.018.
5.15 (a) and (b) Dening P1 = {elder has primary education only}, S1 = {elder has secondary education
P2 S2 T2 P2 S2 T2 P2 0.6 0.4 S2 T2 P (P1 and P2) = 0.05 0.8 = 0.04 P (P1 and S2) = 0.05 0.2 = 0.01 P (P1 and T2) = 0.05 0 = 0 P (S1 and P2) = 0.8 0.1 = 0.08

but no tertiary}, T1 = {elder has tertiary education}, and P2 , S2 and T2 similarly for the younger brother.
0.8 0.2 0 0.05 0.8 0.1 0.5 0.4 0.15 0 T1

P1

S1

P (S1 and S2) = 0.8 0.5 = 0.40 P (S1 and T2) = 0.8 0.4 = 0.32 P (T1 and P2) = 0.15 0 = 0 P (T1 and S2) = 0.15 0.6 = 0.09 P (T1 and T2) = 0.15 0.4 = 0.06

(c) P (same level) = P (P1 and P2 )+P (S1 and S2 )+P (T1 and T2 ) = 0.04+0.4+0.06 = 0.50 = 50%. (d) P (dierent level of education) = 1 P (same level) = 0.50. (e) P (younger brother has higher education) = P (P1 and S2 ) + P (P1 + T2 ) + P (S1 + T2 ) = 0.01 + 0 + 0.32 = 0.33 = 33%. (f) P (P1 and P2 ) = 0.04, P (P1 and S2 ) = 0.01, P (S1 and P2 ) = 0.08, P (S1 and S2 ) = 0.4 and P (S1 and T2 ) = 0.32, P (T1 and S2 ) = 0.09 and P (T1 and T2 ) = 0.06. 5.16 Proportion of toxemic women that are non diabetic = P (D given T ) = P (D and T )/P (T ) = 0.04508/0.05008 = 0.900 (3dp).
5.17 Proportion of those granted bail that are Mori = P (M given B) = P (M and B)/P (B) = 0.14/0.6 = a

0.233 (3dp).
5.18 Probability that a person who has been a victim of an oence against their person comes from

Mana = P (M given O) = P (M and O)/P (O) = 0.072/0.15 = 0.48.

5.19 Proportion of young men on the CYPS register who had incurred a ne or community service that

were gang members = P (G given F ) = P (G and F )/P (F ) = 0.208/0.478 = 0.435 (3dp).

5.20 Probability that a power station that produces power at less than 1% is hydro = P (H given <

61

1%) = P (H and < 1%)/P (< 1%) =

20 24 37 / 37

20 24

= 0.833 (3dp).

5.21 Proportion of families with no children in New Zealand that are Pacic families = P (P given N C) =

P (P and N C)/P (N C) = 0.004/0.25 = 0.016.

5.22 Dene S = {short lifespan} and P = {past use-by date}.
0.3 S 0.2 0.7 P P P (S and P ) = 0.2 0.7 = 0.140 P (S and P ) = 0.8 0.12 = 0.096 P P (S and P ) = 0.2 0.3 = 0.060

0.8 S

0.12

0.88

P (S and P ) = 0.8 0.88 = 0.704

P (P ) = 0.06 + 0.096 = 0.156. So the probability that a product past its use-by date is a long-life product = P (L given P ) = P (L and P )/P (P ) = 0.096/0.156 = 0.615 (3dp).
5.23 Probability that a house sold in the second month was a sole listed property = P (S given Q) =

P (S and Q)/P (Q) = 0.38/0.39 = 0.974 (3dp).

5.24 Percentage of children with psychological problems that are failing to learn = P (F given P s) =

P (F and P s)/P (P s) = 0.06/0.10 = 0.6.

5.25 (a) Dene G = {guilty} and B = {blood matches}.
0.95 G 0.0001 0.05 B B P (G and B) = 0.0001 0.05 = 0.000005 P (G and B) = 0.9999 0.01 = 0.009999 B P (G and B) = 0.0001 0.95 = 0.000095

0.9999 G

0.01

0.99

P (G and B) = 0.9999 0.99 = 0.989901

(b) P (B) = 0.000095 + 0.009999 = 0.010094 = 1.0094%. (c) P (G and B) = 0.000095 = 0.0095%. (d) P (G given B) = P (G and B)/P (B) = 0.000095/0.010094 = 0.0094 = 0.94%.

62

Chapter 6
Exercises These rst exercises are for nding binomial probabilities, and deal with properties of binomial random variables.
6.1 The prevalence of bovine tuberculosis (TB in cows) is 5%. Ten cows were randomly selected, each

from a dierent herd and the number of cattle that were found to have bovine TB was counted. Label this variable X. (a) By using a tree or otherwise nd and write down a probability distribution for X. (b) Why was it necessary to choose no more than one cow from a single herd?
6.2 The probability that a randomly selected adolescent asthmatic will have suered a worsening of

their asthma since the age of ten is 0.4. In a random sample of 20 adolescent asthmatics the number, X, whose asthma has worsened since age ten is counted. Calculate the probabilities of X = 0, 1, 2, . . . , 20 and list as a probability distribution.
6.3 Following from Exercise 5.3, a subsample of 10 pregnant women is randomly selected. Let X denote

the number who develop toxemia. Take P (toxemia) to 2dp. (a) What type of distribution does X have? Give reasons for your answer. (b) What are the mean and variance of X? (c) Find P (X = 1) and P (X 2).
6.4 Using Exercise 5.4, let X be the number of defendants not granted bail out of 20 randomly selected

defendants in the district court over this period of time. (a) What type of random variable is X? Give reasons for your answer. (b) What is the probability that X = 7? More than 8? (c) If many samples of 20 defendants from the district court are taken, and in each case the number who are granted bail, X, is counted, then what is the mean value of X, i.e. the average number who are granted bail per sample of 20? What is the variance of X?
6.5 Using Exercise 5.5, let X be the number of people who have been the victim of an oence against

their person, out of 20 randomly selected people from the Mana-Lower Hutt region. (a) What type of random variable is X? Why? (b) What is the probability that X = 5? More than 6? (c) If many samples of 20 people are taken from this region, and in each case the number who have been victims of oences against their person, X, is counted, then what is the mean value of X, i.e. the average number who have experienced such crimes per sample of 20? What is the variance of X?
6.6 From Exercise 5.7, a random sample of 12 such young men is selected. Let X denote the number

who have already served a custodial sentence. (a) What are the mean and variance of X? (b) Find P (X = 6) and P (X > 6).
6.7 In June 2003, approximately 45% of New Zealands work force were women. In a random sample

of 20 workers: (a) What is the probability that six are women? (b) What is the probability that there were 12 or more men? (Source: Statistics New Zealand.)
6.8 In Exercise 5.12, a random sample of 15 children from this community is selected and the number,

X, with a psychological problem is counted. Find P (X = 3) and P (X > 3)?

6.9 A random sample of 12 families is selected from the context of Exercise 5.9. Let X be the number

without children. 63

(a) What type of distribution does X have? Justify your answer. (b) Find P (X = 5) and P (X < 2). (c) If in this sample, six families have no children, what might you suspect?
6.10 Forty percent of all rst admissions to psychiatric facilities in the male 45-54 category in New

Zealand have alcohol abuse as the leading cause. Of 15 male rst admissions in this 45-54 age group what is the probability that fewer than four will be due to alcohol abuse?
6.11 In a study of depressed patients, 60% were classied as introverted and 40% as extroverted person-

alities. In a random sample of 15 depressed patients let X = the number of extroverted patients. (a) What are the conditions required for X to have a binomial distribution? (b) Find P (X = 5), P (X < 5) and P (X > 12).
6.12 The probability of a property being sold by sole agent in the rst week of listing is 20%. In a

random sample of eight properties listed by a single real estate agent: (a) What is the probability that none sell in the rst week? (b) What is the probability that at least one sells in the rst week? (c) What is the probability that all sell in the rst week?
6.13 The shell of the snail Limicolaria martensiana has two colour forms, plain and streaked. It has

been theorised that the proportion of streaked shells is 60% in the population. A random sample of 20 snails is collected and the number of plain shells, X is counted. (a) Find the probability that exactly nine shells will be plain. Give a reason for your answer. (b) Find P (X 10). (c) The random sample size is increased to 40. In this new sample there are 29 plain shells. What can you conclude? (From Owen, D. (1963), Polymorphism and population density in the African land snail Limicolaria martensiana, Science 140, 666-667.)
6.14 On 31 March 2003, cars made up approximately 70% of New Zealands 2,916,734 registered vehicles.

Consider a random sample of 20 vehicles. (a) What is the probability that all of them are cars? (b) How many would you expect to be cars? (c) If you were told that only 10 of them were cars, would this lead you to doubt the randomness of the sampling process? (Source: Land Transport Safety Authority.)
6.15 The following are measures of ne motor skill development in 20 toddlers who were exposed to

play involving the development of these skills after the age of 1. The scores are an aggregate of scores on several tests involving ne motor skills: 7.4, 7.6, 8.1, 8.3, 8.4, 8.6, 9.0, 9.0, 9.8, 9.8, 9.9, 10.1, 10.1, 10.3, 10.5, 10.6, 10.8, 10.9, 11.0, 11.0. (a) Find the proportion of these toddlers whose ne motor skills score is above 10.7. (b) If having a score greater than 10.7 is counted as a success, this can be seen as a binomial experiment. Why? (c) Find the probability that in 20 randomly selected toddlers who were exposed to this play, 14 have a ne motor skills score greater than 10.7. (d) Find the probability that in 20 randomly selected toddlers who were exposed to this play, more than 14 of them have a ne motor skills score greater than 10.7.
6.16 It is estimated that 30% of short-life products on a supermarkets shelves are past their use-by

dates. Consider a random sample of 15 short-life products from this supermarket. (a) Justify use of the binomial distribution for the number of items in this sample that are past their use-by dates. (b) Find the probability that none of the items are past their use-by dates. (c) Find the probability that two or more of the items are past their use-by dates.

64

6.17 The probability of Telecoms share price going up on a particular day is approximately 55%. Assume

X = the number of increases in 20 consecutive days is binomial, with n = 20 and p = 0.55. (a) What are the mean and standard deviation of X? (b) What is the probability of getting at least 10 increases in 20 consecutive days? (c) Why might the binomial distribution not be appropriate in this case?
6.18 The chocolate bar producer in Exercise 2.17 distributes the bars in packs of 20. Occasionally, the

boxes do not close well because some of the bars are too big. The producer estimates that a bar is too big when its weight exceeds 52g, and that if there are more than six of these bars in the box, then the box will not close properly. The probability that a bar is too big is estimated to be 10%. (a) What are the mean and standard deviation of the number of bars in a box that are too big? (b) What is the probability that a randomly selected box will not close properly? This second set of questions give further practice nding binomial probabilities, and also practice dealing with sample proportions.
6.19 A smoking cessation programme has a national success rate of 35%. A sample of n = 15 people who

undertake the programme is selected. Let X represent the number who manage to stop smoking. (a) Find P (X = 2), P (X > 10) and P (X < 8). (b) If groups of 15 smokers on the programme all over the country try to stop smoking, what is the mean number of smokers per group that will succeed? What is the variance of the number that will succeed? (c) What is the mean proportion of smokers per group who will succeed? What is the variance of the proportion of smokers per group who will succeed?
6.20 Forty-ve quadrats were pegged out on the southern coast of Stewart Island. These were observed

for three days in late September and it was recorded whether or not southern skuas were observed in each quadrat (these birds breed prolically in Stewart Island but rarely in the South Island). The table shows the results for each quadrat,  = observed, and # = not observed. 1  16 # 31  2  17  32  3  18  33  4 # 19  34 # 5  20  35 # 6 # 21  36  7 # 22  37  8  23 # 38  9  24  39  10  25  40  11 # 26  41  12  27  42  13  28  43  14 # 29  44  15  30  45 

(a) In what proportion of quadrats were southern skua observed? (b) In a random sample of 12 quadrats from the total of 45 on the south coast of Stewart Island, let X = the number of quadrats in which southern skua were observed. Find P (X = 6) and P (6 X 10). (c) If Y = the number of quadrats in these 12 in which southern skua are absent, what is the distribution of Y ? Find P (Y < 2) and P (Y > 4).
6.21 The red blood cell count (106 per mL) in a group of ten dogs is as follows: 9.5, 7.5, 7.0, 5.9, 9.5,

6.2, 6.5, 8.7, 5.8, 7.7. (a) What proportion of these dogs have a red blood cell count of less than 6.0? (b) If this group of dogs is representative of the population of dogs in terms of red blood cell count, what is the probability that in a random sample of 20 dogs less than four of them will have a red blood cell count of 6.0 or more?
6.22 The proportion of subjects in which Wade et al were able to induce a false memory (see Exer-

cise 2.22) was 0.4. In a random sample of 11 subjects where X = the number in whom a false memory is able to be induced nd P (X = 5) and P (X 6).
6.23 In the year ended June 2003, roughly 20% of New Zealands $29,278 million exports were to the

United States. Consider 12 randomly selected export units. 65

(a) What is the probability that three or more of these were sent to the United States? (b) What is the probability that none of them were bound for the United States? (c) What is the probability that seven of them were sent to countries other than the United States? (Source: Statistics New Zealand.) Solutions
6.1 (a) X is Bin(10, 0.05), so

x 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 . . . . 10 P (X = x) 0.5987 0.3151 0.0746 0.0105 0.0010 0.0001 less than 0.0001 (b) TB is contagious, so for cows (trials) to be independent, need to samples cows from dierent herds.
6.2 X is Bin(20, 0.4), so

x P (X = x) x P (X = x) x P (X = x)

0 0.0000 7 0.1659 14 0.0049

1 0.0005 8 0.1797 15 0.0013

2 0.0031 9 0.1597 16 0.0003

3 0.0123 10 0.1171 17 0.0000

4 0.0350 11 0.0710 18 0.0000

5 0.0746 12 0.0355 19 0.0000

6 0.1244 13 0.0146 20 0.0000

6.3 (a) p = P (pregnant woman develops toxemia) = P (T ) = 0.05 (to 2dp, from Exercise 5.3); n = 10;

6.4 (a) p = P (defendant not granted bail) = P (B) = 0.4, n = 20; X = number in sample who are not granted bail. X has a binomial distribution since there are two outcomes (granted bail or not), the defendants are independent (random sample), the number of trials is xed at 20 and the probability of being granted bail is constant. X Bin(20, 0.4). (b) P (X = 7) = 0.1659 and P (X > 8) = P (X 9) = 0.4044. (c) Mean of X = 20 0.40 = 8 and variance = 20 0.4 0.6 = 4.8.
6.5 (a) p = P (victim of an oence) = P (O) = 0.15, n = 20; X = number in sample who have been

X = number in sample who develop toxemia. X has a binomial distribution since there are two outcomes (develop toxemia or not), the women are independent (unless there are siblings in the sample), the number of trials is xed at 10 and the probability of developing toxemia is roughly constant. X Bin(10, 0.05). (b) Mean of X = 10 0.05 = 0.5 and variance = 10 0.05 0.95 = 0.475. (c) P (X = 1) = 0.3151 and P (X 2) = P (X = 0) + P (X = 1) + P (X = 2) = 0.9884.

the victim of an oence against their person. X has a binomial distribution since there are two outcomes (victim or not), the victims are independent (random sample), the number of trials is xed at 20 and the probability of being a victim of an oence is constant. X Bin(20, 0.15). (b) P (X = 5) = 0.1028 and P (X 7) = 0.0219. (b) Mean of X = 20 0.15 = 3 and variance = 20 0.15 0.85 = 2.55.
6.6 (a) p = P (young man already served a sentence) = P (C) = 0.25, n = 12; X = number in sample

who have already served a sentence. X Bin(12, 0.25). Mean of X = 12 0.25 = 3 and variance = 12 0.25 0.75 = 2.25. (b) P (X = 6) = 0.0401 and P (X > 6) = P (X 7) = 0.0143.
6.7 (a) p = P (woman in the workforce) = 0.45, n = 20; X = number in sample who are woman.

X Bin(20, 0.45). P (X = 6) = 0.0746. (b) Let Y = number in sample who are men. Y Bin(20, 0.55). P (Y 12) = P (X 8) = 1 0.5857 = 0.4143.
6.8 p = P (child has a psychological problem) = P (P s) = 0.10, n = 15; X = number in sample who

have a psychological problem. X Bin(15, 0.10). P (X = 3) = 0.1285 and P (X > 3) = P (X 4) = 0.0556. 6.9 (a) n = 12, X = number without children. P (no children) = P (C) = 0.25. X Bin(12, 0.25). 66

Two outcomes (children or not), xed number of trials, independent families (random sample) and p roughly constant. (b) P (X = 5) = 0.1032. P (X < 2) = P (X = 0) + P (X = 1) = 0.1584. (c) Mean number of children = 12 0.25 = 3. P (X = 6) = 0.04, which is very small, less than 5% and P (X 6) = 0.0544, which is almost less than 5%. So this outcome (having 6 children) is very unlikely and suggests that perhaps we did not take a random sample.
6.10 p = P (rst admission is due to alcohol abuse) = 0.40, n = 15; X = number in sample where alcohol

abuse was the leading cause of their rst admission. X Bin(15, 0.40). P (X < 4) = P (X 3) = P (X = 0) + + P (X = 3) = 0.0905.
6.11 (a) n = 15 patients. X = number who are extroverted. P (extroverted) = 0.4. Require xed

number of trials, two outcomes (success and failure), trials must be independent and probability of success must remain constant from trial to trial. Then X Bin(15, 0.4). (b) P (X = 5) = 0.1859. P (X < 5) = 0.2173. P (X > 12) = P (X 13) = 0.0003.
6.12 n = 8, P (sold by sole agent in rst week) = 0.2. X = number sold by sole agent in rst week.

X Bin(8, 0.2). (a) P (X = 0) = 0.1678. (b)P (X 1) = 1 P (X = 0) = 1 0.1678 = 0.8322. (c) P (X = 8) = 0.0000.

6.13 (a) X = number of shells that are plain. n = 20, p = P (plain shell) = 1 P (streaked shell) = 0.4;

X Bin(20, 0.40). P (X = 9) = 0.1597. (b) P (X 10) = 0.2447. 29 (c) Proportion of plain shells is 40 = 0.725. This is well above 0.4 and we would conclude that the theorised proportions are incorrect. (Or when n = 40, mean = 40 0.4 = 16 and 29 is well above this and the same conclusion applies.) P (X 29) = 0.0000 when X Bin(40, 0.4) so this is a very unlikely result if p = 0.4.

6.14 X = number of registered vehicles that are cars. n = 20, p = P (car) = 0.7; X Bin(20, 0.7).

Since p > 0.5, let Y = number of registered vehicles that are not cars; Y Bin(20, 0.3). (a) P (X = 20) = P (Y = 0) = 0.0008. (b) You would expect np = 20 0.7 = 14 to be cars. (c) P (X = 10) = P (Y = 10) = 0.0308. This is very small, so getting 10 cars out of 20 vehicles is an unlikely event. This would lead us to doubt the randomness of the sampling process.
4 20

6.15 (a) p =

= 0.2. (b) Let X = number of toddlers with score greater than 10.7, then X Bin(20, 0.2) as there are two outcomes (greater than 10.7 or not), n is xed (n = 20), probability of getting greater than 10.7, p = 0.2 is constant and the toddlers are independent. (c) P (X = 14) = 0.0000. (d) P (X 15) = 0.0000.

6.16 (a) Let X = number of short-life products past their use-by dates, then X Bin(15, 0.3). There

are two outcomes (past use-by or not), n is xed (n = 15), probability (p = 0.3) is constant and the products are independent (random sample). (b) P (X = 0) = 0.0047. (c) P (X 2) = 0.9647. 6.17 (a) X Bin(20, 0.55). X has mean 20 0.55 = 11 and standard deviation 20 0.55 0.45 = 2.225. (b) Since p > 0.55, let Y = number of days out of 20 where there was no increase. Y Bin(20, 0.45); P (X 10) = P (Y 10) = 1 P (Y 11) = 1 0.2493 = 0.7507. (c) Each days share price change might not be independent from the previous days, there could be trends in the market. deviation = 1.8 = 1.342.

6.18 (a) X Bin(20, 0.1). The mean of X is 20 0.1 = 2 and variance is 20 0.1 0.9 = 1.8, standard

67

(b) P (X > 6) = P (X 7) = 0.0024.

6.19 (a) X Bin(15, 0.35). P (X = 2) = 0.0476, P (X > 10) = P (X 11) = 0.0028, P (X < 8) =

1 P (X 8) = 1 0.1132 = 0.8868. (b) Mean = 15 0.35 = 5.25, variance = 15 0.35 0.65 = 3.4125. (c) Mean proportion is p = 0.35 and variance of p = p(1 p)/n = 0.35 0.65/15 = 0.0152.
36 45

6.20 (a) The proportion of skua observed was p =

= 0.80. (b) X Bin(12, 0.8). Since p > 0.8, let Y Bin(12, 0.2) where Y = number of quadrats in which southern skua were not observed. X = n Y . P (X = 6) = P (Y = 6) = 0.0155 P (6 X 10) = P (X = 6) + + P (X = 10) = P (Y = 6) + + P (Y = 2) = 0.7213. (c) P (Y < 2) = P (Y = 0) + P (Y = 1) = 0.2749. P (Y > 4) = P (Y 5) = 0.0726. = 0.2. (b) X Bin(20, 0.2). P (X < 4) = P (X = 0) + + P (X = 3) = 0.4114.
2 10

6.21 (a) Proportion with blood count less than 6 is p =

6.22 X Bin(11, 0.4). P (X = 5) = 0.2207 and P (X 6) = 0.2465. 6.23 (a) X Bin(12, 0.2). P (X 3) = 0.4417.

(b) P (X = 0) = 0.0687 (c) If 7 are not sent to the United States, 5 are sent there, so P (X = 5) = 0.0532.

68

Chapter 7
Exercises The rst set of exercises give you important practice using the standard normal table.
7.1 Find the following probabilities:

(a) P (0 < Z < 1.3) (d) P (0 < Z 0.8) (a) P (0 < Z 0.95) (d) P (3 < Z < 0) (a) P (Z > 1.65) (d) P (Z > 0.9)
7.4 Find z to satisfy:

(b) P (1.53 < Z < 0) (e) P (1.96 < Z < 1.96) (b) P (0 Z < 1.65) (e) P (1.2 < Z < 2) (b) P (Z 1.2) (e) P (1.2 < Z < 2) (b) P (Z < z) = 0.25 (e) P (z < Z < z) = 0.8

(c) P (0.8 < Z < 0.5) (f) P (2.5 Z < 2.5) (c) P (0.3 < Z < 0.6) (f) P (1.4 < Z < 1.4) (c) P (Z < 2) (f) P (3 < Z < 1.5) (c) P (Z < z) = 0.9

7.2 Find the following probabilities:

7.3 Find the following probabilities:

(a) P (Z > z) = 0.025 (d) P (Z > z) = 0.6

The following questions give you practice with standardising and the CLT, and more practice using the tables.
7.5 Given X N (10, 0.25), nd the following probabilities:

(a) P (X > 10.9) (b) P (9 < X < 11) (d) Find P (X > 10.25) where n = 10. (e) Find x such that P (X > x) = 0.05 where n = 10.

(c) P (X < 8.7)

7.6 Given X N (20.2, 4), nd the following probabilities:

(a) P (X > 20.9) (b) P (15 < X < 25) (c) P (X < 19) (d) Find P (X < 19) where n = 20. Compare your answer to that in (c). (e) Find x such that P (X < x) = 0.85 where n = 20.

7.7 Lengths of custodial sentences handed out to under 20-year-old males in New Zealand are roughly

normally distributed with mean = 4.2 years and standard deviation = 2.8 years. (a) What is the probability that a randomly selected male under 20 given a custodial sentence is sentenced to a year or less? (b) What proportion of the male prison population under 20 have sentence lengths of up to six years? (c) What length of sentence are 80% of 20-year-old men in jail serving less than? (d) Why may the normal distribution not be a very suitable one for these sentences? [Hint: consider P (X < 0).]
7.8 In families consisting of a couple with children, the age of the mother at the birth of her rst child,

Y , follows roughly a normal distribution with mean = 26.4 and standard deviation = 3.2 years. (a) What proportion of couples with children have had their rst child before the mother is 20? (b) By what mothers age are 75% of rst-born children of couples with children born?
7.9 The monthly percentage returns for Telecom New Zealands share price is approximately normal

with mean = 0.5% and standard deviation = 6.3%. In a randomly selected month: (a) What is the probability of a positive return, i.e. what is P (X > 0)? (b) What is the probability that the return exceeds 4% in a month?
7.10 The distribution of the birth weights of babies delivered at 40 weeks is approximately normal with

a mean of 3500g and standard deviation of 430g. (a) A baby weighing 2500g or less is considered to have low birth weight. What proportion of babies delivered at 40 weeks have a low birth weight? 69

(b) What is the probability that a randomly chosen mother will give birth to a baby weighing more than 4000g? (c) Calculate the upper quartile of birth weight. What is the lower quartile?
7.11 The output voltage from an electronic device has a normal distribution with mean = 1.0mV and

standard deviation = 0.4mV under the usual operating conditions. If the voltage exceeds 2.0mV, then an alarm sounds. (a) Calculate the probability that, under usual operating conditions, the alarm rings. (b) Calculate the probability that the voltage is between 0.0mV and 0.5mV.
7.12 The hedge sparrow has a variety of breeding strategies. A sample of 38 hedge sparrows using

monogamy had an average of ve young per female, i.e. x = 5, with s = 2.5. It is claimed that the mean number of young per female for monogamous hedge sparrows is = 4.2. In samples of size n = 38, nd P (X > 5). (Data based on Davies and Houston, 2003.)
7.13 Acceptable discharge for a particular factory is specied to average 25mg/L of insoluble waste with

a standard deviation of 2mg/L. If a random sample of 100 separate one litre specimens is taken from the discharge, what is the probability that the sample mean will exceed 25.4mg/L?
7.14 Assume that the average height of 18-year-old male New Zealanders is 1.70m with a standard

deviation of 0.15m. A random sample of 100 18-year-old male New Zealanders is selected, and the mean height X is calculated. Calculate P (X > 1.74m). In the following exercises, we use the normal approximation to the binomial distribution.
7.15 Suppose X Bin(150, 0.7). Justify the use of the normal approximation, and then calculate the

following probabilities: (a) P (X 100)

(b) P (X > 100)

(c) P (90 < X < 110)

7.16 Suppose X Bin(100, 0.4). Justify the use of the normal approximation, and then calculate the

following probabilities: (a) P (X 40)

(b) P (X > 32)

(c) P (35 < X < 45)

7.17 Seventy-ve percent of the members of the Anglican faith in New Zealand are over 20-years-old.

In a random sample of 200 New Zealand Anglicans, nd the probability that X lies between 140 and 180, where X is the number in the sample over 20-years-old.
7.18 Thirty percent of coal miners over 50 years of age have respiratory problems. Estimate the prob-

ability that more than 35 miners in a random sample of 80 miners are suering from respiratory problems.
7.19 A psychologist was assisting with the trialling of a new road sign and comparing motorists recall

of the information on this new sign with that for the existing sign. A new sign was erected and 1km past the sign a random sample of n = 80 motorists were stopped and asked to recall the information on the sign. Fifty-six of the 80 stopped could correctly recall it. (a) Can the normal approximation to the binomial be used in this situation? Why? (b) Using p = 0.7 as the actual probability of recalling the information on the sign, nd the probability that in a random sample of 200 motorists more than 75% will correctly recall the new sign. The following questions give you practice calculating and interpreting p-values.
7.20 Find the p-values of the following results, which all come from random samples of size n = 81 from

a population in which the mean is thought to be 21.5 and the standard deviation is known to be 5.3. In each case, after you have worked out the p-value, comment on the implications of this value for the claim that = 21.5. (a) Sample mean = 23.1 and it is thought that if is not equal to 21.5 then it is likely to be higher.

70

(b) Sample mean = 23.1 and it is thought that if is not equal to 21.5 there is no indication whether it is likely to be higher or lower. (c) Sample mean = 20.6 and it is thought that if is not equal to 21.5 then it is likely to be lower. (d) Sample mean = 23.1 and it is thought that if is not equal to 21.5 then it is likely to be lower.
7.21 Find the p-values of the following results, which all come from random samples of size n = 64 from

a population in which the proportion having a certain characteristic is thought to be p = 0.4. In each case, after you have worked out the p-value, comment on the implications of this value for the claim that p = 0.4. (a) The number in the sample with the characteristic is 32 and it to 0.4 then it is likely to be higher. (b) The number in the sample with the characteristic is 32 and if indication whether it is likely to be higher or lower. (c) The number in the sample with the characteristic is 17 and it to 0.4 then it is likely to be lower. (d) The number in the sample with the characteristic is 32 and it to 0.4 then it is likely to be lower. is thought that if p is not equal p is not equal to 0.4 there is no is thought that if p is not equal is thought that if p is not equal

7.22 An insurance company promises that 90% of its claims are settled within 30 days. A consumer

group who believe that the proportion is lower than this takes a random sample of 75 claims and nds that 55 are settled within 30 days. Find the p-value of their result and decide whether or not it supports the companys or the consumer groups view.
7.23 The average hourly wage of 200 18-year-olds employed part-time in various supermarkets in New

Zealand is $9.50 with a standard deviation of 50 cents, i.e. $0.5. It has been suggested that parttime workers aged 18 are receiving an average hourly wage of $10.30. Find the p-value of these data for the 200 supermarket workers. Does their data support the claim about the national part-time worker wage? Explain your answer.
7.24 Forty percent of Samoans living in New Zealand were not born in New Zealand. Auckland is usually

the point of entry for Samoans immigrating to New Zealand and because of this it is suggested that the proportion of overseas born Samoans will be higher there. In a random sample of 500 Samoans in South Auckland, 175 were born in New Zealand. Find the p-value of this result. Does it support the suggestion that the proportion of overseas-born Samoans is higher in South Auckland than in the country as a whole? Justify your answer. (Census data, Statistics New Zealand, 2001.)
7.25 For many years 16% of males aged between 20 and 24 requiring inpatient psychiatric treatment

have been admitted with a diagnosis of schizophrenia. In a sample of 40 new admissions to a psychiatric ward in 2003 the number of males admitted with a diagnosis of schizophrenia was nine. Does the p-value of this result indicate that this number is suciently greater than 16% for us to change our view about the proportion of males in this age bracket admitted to a psychiatric ward who will need treatment for schizophrenia in this year?
7.26 The proportion of people who visit the doctor in any given year is 81%. In a random sample of 78

teenage boys, 56 said they had visited their doctor in the last 12 months. Find the p-value of this result in order to establish whether this group of people are less likely to visit their doctor than the population at large.
7.27 Find the p-value of the result in Example 7.12 when the alternative scenario is just that = 4.2.

Does this indicate that the sample of birds is dierent from the general population? Solutions Note that z-scores are rounded to 2dp to be consistent with using the table in Appendix C.3
7.1 (a) 0.4032; (b) 0.4370; (c) 0.2881 + 0.1915 = 0.4796; (d) 0.2881; (e) 2 0.475 = 0.95; (f) 0.9876.

71

7.2 (a) 0.3289; (b) 0.4505; (c) 0.1179 + 0.2257 = 0.3436; (d) 0.4987; (e) 0.3849 + 0.4772 = 0.8621; (f)

2 0.4192 = 0.8384.
7.3 (a) 0.5 0.4505 = 0.0495; (b) 0.5 0.3849 = 0.1151; (c) 0.5 + 0.4772 = 0.9772; (d) 0.5 + 0.3159 =

0.8159; (e) 0.4772 0.3849 = 0.0923; (f) 0.4987 0.4332 = 0.0655.

7.4 (a) 1.96; (b) 0.6745; (c) 1.2816; (d) 0.2533; (e) 1.2816. 7.5 (a) P (X > 10.9) = P (Z > 1.8) = 0.5 0.4641 = 0.0359.

(b) P (9 < X < 11) = P (2 < Z < 2) = 2 P (0 < Z < 2) = 2 0.4772 = 0.9544. (c) P (X < 8.7) = P (Z < 2.6) = 0.5 0.4953 = 0.0047. (d) P (X > 10.25) = P (Z > 1.58) = 0.5 0.4429 = 0.0571. (e) P (X > x) = 0.05 implies P (0 < X < x) = 0.45. When p = 0.45, z = 1.6449 and x = 10 + 1.6449 (0.5/ 10) = 10.26. So P (X > 10.26) = 0.05.

7.6 (a) P (X > 20.9) = P (Z > 0.35) = 0.5 0.1368 = 0.3632.

(b) P (15 < X < 25) = P (2.6 < Z < 2.4) = 0.4953 + 0.4918 = 0.9871. (c) P (X < 19) = P (Z < 0.6) = 0.5 0.2257 = 0.2743. (d) P (X < 19) = P (Z < 2.68) = 0.5 0.4963 = 0.0037. This probability is much less than that in part (c) because the sample mean is much closer to on average, than a single observation. (e) P (X < x) = 0.85 implies P (0 < X < x) = 0.35. When p = 0.35, z = 1.0364 and x = 20.2 + 1.0364 (2/ 20) = 20.66. So P (X < 20.66) = 0.85 (b) P (X < 6) = P (Z < 0.64) = 0.5 + 0.2389 = 0.7389. (c) P (X < x) = 0.80 implies P (0 < X < x) = 0.30. When p = 0.30, z = 0.8416 and x = 4.2 + 0.8416 2.8 = 6.56 years. So P (X < 6.56) = 0.80. (d) P (X < 0) = P (Z < 1.5) = 0.50.4332 = 0.0668, so there is a decent probability of a negative sentence when using the normal distribution. (b) P (X < x) = 0.75 implies P (0 < X < x) = 0.25. When p = 0.25, z = 0.6745 and x = 26.4 + 0.6745 3.2 = 28.56 years. So P (X < 28.56) = 0.75.

7.7 (a) P (X < 1) = P (Z < 1.14) = 0.5 0.3729 = 0.1271.

7.8 (a) P (X < 20) = P (Z < 2) = 0.5 0.4772 = 0.0228.

7.9 (a) P (X > 0) = P (Z > 0.08) = 0.5 + 0.0319 = 0.5319.

(b) P (X > 4) = P (Z > 0.56) = 0.5 0.2123 = 0.2877.

7.10 (a) P (X < 2500) = P (Z < 2.33) = 0.5 0.4901 = 0.0099.

(b) P (X > 4000) = P (Z > 1.16) = 0.5 0.3770 = 0.1230. (c) P (X < x) = 0.75 implies P (0 < X < x) = 0.25. When p = 0.25, z = 0.6745 and U Q = 3500 + 0.6745 430 = 3790.0g. So P (X < 3790.0) = 0.75. Since the normal distribution is symmetric, LQ = 3500 0.6745 430 = 3210.0g. (b) P (0 < X < 0.5) = P (2.5 < Z < 1.25) = 0.4938 0.3944 = 0.0994.

7.11 (a) P (X > 2) = P (Z > 2.5) = 0.5 0.4938 = 0.0062.

7.12 P (X > 5) = P (Z > 1.97) = 0.5 0.4756 = 0.0244.

7.13 P (X > 25.4) = P (Z > 2) = 0.5 0.4772 = 0.0228.

7.15 n = 150 30; np = 150 0.7 = 105 and np 3

7.14 P (X > 1.74) = P (Z > 2.67) = 0.5 0.4962 = 0.0038. np(1 p) = 105 3 5.61 = 88.17, 121.83 and both lie within 0 and n, so we can use the normal approximation. (a) z = (99.5 105)/5.61 = 0.98, P (X 100) = P (X > 99.5) = P (Z > 0.98) = 0.5 + 0.3365 = 0.8365. (b) z = (100.5 105)/5.61 = 0.80, P (X > 100) = P (X > 100.5) = P (Z > 0.80) = 0.5 + 0.2881 = 0.7881. (c) z1 = (90.5 105)/5.61 = 2.58 and z2 = (109.5 105)/5.61 = 0.80, P (90 < X < 110) = P (90.5 < X < 109.5) = P (2.58 < Z < 0.8) = 0.4951 + 0.2881 = 0.7832.

7.16 n = 100 30; np = 100 0.4 = 40 and np 3

np(1 p) = 40 3 4.90 = 25.3, 54.7 and both lie within 0 and n, so we can use the normal approximation. 72

(a) z = (39.5 40)/4.90 = 0.10, P (X 40) = P (X > 39.5) = P (Z > 0.10) = 0.5 + 0.0398 = 0.5398. (b) z = (32.5 40)/4.90 = 1.53, P (X > 32) = P (X > 32.5) = P (Z > 1.53) = 0.5 + 0.4370 = 0.9370. (c) z1 = (35.5 40)/4.90 = 0.92 and z2 = (44.5 40)/4.90 = 0.92, P (35 < X < 45) = P (35.5 < X < 44.5) = P (0.92 < Z < 0.92) = 2 0.3212 = 0.6424.
7.17 z1 = (140.5 150)/6.12 = 1.55 and z2 = (179.5 150)/6.12 = 4.82, P (140 < X < 180) =

P (140.5 < X < 179.5) = P (1.55 < Z < 4.82) = 0.4394 + 0.5 = 0.9394.

7.18 z = (35.5 24)/4.10 = 2.81, P (X > 35) = P (X > 35.5) = P (Z > 2.81) = 0.5 0.4975 = 0.0025.

p(1 p)/n = 0.7 3 0.05 = 0.55, 0.85 and both lie within 0 and 1, so the normal approximation to the binomial applies. (b) z = (0.75 0.70)/0.03 = 1.54, P ( > 0.75) = P (Z > 1.54) = 0.5 0.4382 = 0.0618. p 7.20 The standard error is 5.3/ 81 = 0.5889. For x = 23.1, z = (23.1 21.5)/0.5889 = 2.72. For x = 20.6, z = (20.6 21.5)/0.5889 = 1.53. (a) p-value = 0.5 0.4967 = 0.0033. This is very small so it is unlikely that = 21.5. (b) p-value = 2 (0.5 0.4967) = 0.0066. This is very small so it is unlikely that = 21.5. (c) p-value = 0.5 0.4370 = 0.0630. This p-value is reasonably small, so we may doubt whether = 21.5 is correct, given our result. (d) p-value = 0.5 + 0.4967 = 0.9967. This large value means that our result is a highly likely one if = 21.5 compared with < 21.5.
7.21 The normal distribution is reasonable, since np 3

7.19 (a) n = 80 30 and p 3

np(1 p) = 25.3 > 0. For p = 0.5, z = (0.5 0.4)/0.061 = 1.63. For p = 17/64 = 0.266, z = (0.266 0.4)/0.061 = 2.19. (a) p-value = 0.5 0.4484 = 0.0516. Fairly unlikely result to get if 0.4 is the correct proportion. (b) p-value = 2 (0.5 0.4484) = 0.1032. The chance of getting this result if 0.4 is the true proportion is approximately 10%. (c) p-value = 0.5 0.4857 = 0.0143. The chance of getting this result if 0.4 is the true proportion is fairly small so we would suspect that the true proportion is less than 0.4. (d) p-value = 0.5 + 0.4484 = 0.9484. Highly likely, an entirely reasonable result if p = 0.4 compared to p < 0.4.

p(1 p)/n = 0.035, z = (0.733 0.90)/0.035 = 4.811. It is thought that p is lower than 90% and so p-value 0. This implies that the insurance companys claim is false, as if p is really 0.9 the data has produced an extremely unlikely result. 7.23 / n = 0.035, z = (9.5 10.3)/0.035 = 22.63, and p-value = 0. This implies the suggestion is wrong, i.e. supermarket employees do not get the national part-time workers average hourly wage.
7.24 p = 325/500 = 0.65 not born in New Zealand, compared to p = 0.4. P (Z > 11.41) = 0, indicating

7.22 p = 55/75 = 0.733,

a very unlikely result, so it seems clear that in South Auckland the proportion is much higher than 40%.
7.25 p = 9/40 = 0.225, with

p(1 p)/n = 0.058, z = (0.225 0.16)/0.058 = 1.12 and p-value = 0.5 0.3686 = 0.1314. The p-value is not less than 5%, which suggests that we cannot reject the proportion could still be 16% even though we had a sample proportion of 22.5%. p(1 p)/n = 0.044, z = (0.718 0.81)/0.044 = 2.07 and p-value = 0.5 0.4808 = 0.0192. The p-value is small (< 5%), so it is likely this group do visit the doctor less. of x = 5 if = 4.2 is unlikely, and this suggests that is not 4.2.

7.26 p = 56/78 = 0.718, with

7.27 z = 1.97, p-value = 2 0.0244 = 0.0488. This is a small value which means that getting a result

73

Chapter 8
Exercises The following exercises give practice for large sample inference for a population mean.
8.1 An important health issue especially for poorer countries is the dierential in price between brand

name pharmaceuticals and their generic equivalents. For example in New Zealand:
Panadol Brand name price ($) Generic version price ($) 4.95 2.95 Prozac 18.50 1.93 Zertec 28.60 2.75

A sample of 49 prescription medicines in the brand name price range $15-30 were compared with their generic prices. The average dierence in price, x, was $24.93 with a standard deviation of s = $8.74. Construct a 95% condence interval for , the mean price dierence for all prescription medicines in this price group.
8.2 Acid rain, due to industrial pollution has been measured in the greater Auckland region. Water

specimens from 40 dierent locations during one rainfall gave pH values with a mean x = 5.5381 and a standard deviation s = 0.4875. pH is a measure of acidity where 0 = acid, 14 = alkaline and pure rain falling through clean air registers a pH value of 5.7. (a) Stating any assumptions that are necessary, test the hypothesis H0 : = 5.7 against the alternative Ha : < 5.7 where was the mean pH value for the greater Auckland region during that rainfall. Use a 5% signicance level. (b) What is the p-value for your result?
8.3 During a single week in September, 2003, the average number of unjustied absences (one form

of truancy) in a sample of 320 schools in New Zealand was x = 118.60 per day with a standard deviation, s = 79.05. (a) Use this data to construct a 90% condence interval for the true mean number of unjustied absences per day in New Zealand schools. (b) Test the statement that the mean number of unjustied absences per day in New Zealand schools is 125.5 using = 0.10. (c) How many schools would have been needed to have been sampled in order to achieve a margin of error of 4 in your condence interval? (d) Suggest some possible factors that could make your condence interval an unreliable estimate of the true mean number of unjustiable absences per day in New Zealand schools?
8.4 In an experimental trial, 64 sheep were injected with a particular antibiotic at 10mg/kg body

weight. After 90 minutes, the mean blood serum concentration of the antibiotic was 24.857g/mL with a standard deviation of 3.924g/mL. (a) Find a 95% condence interval for , the population mean concentration. (b) Using your result above, determine the sample size required to be 95% condent of a maximum error of 0.5g/mL in the estimate of .
8.5 In May 2004, monthly sales from a random sample of 38 outlets of a well-known franchise produced

x = 3.62 and s = 0.78 (in $million). The previous year in May the mean sales nationally for this franchise were $3.94 million. (a) Is there evidence to suggest that 2004s mean sales for May for this franchise were less than for the previous year at that time? Use = 1%. (b) Calculate the p-value for this test and explain its meaning. (c) Give a 99% condence interval for the true mean sales for this franchise for May 2004.
8.6 The driver of the Subaru in Exercise 2.5 wishes to compare the fuel consumption of his car to the

gure stated by the New Zealand Automobile Association as appropriate for his size car, which is 11.26 km/L. Test whether or not his fuel consumption is worse than the recommended value for his size car, using the sample data given in Exercise 2.5. Use a 5% level for the test. 74

8.7 The average number of snapper eggs found in n = 30 trawls by a high-speed surface plankton net

over 3000m in moderate sea conditions was x = 674.85 with a standard deviation, s = 359.17. (a) Construct a 90% condence interval for , the mean number of snapper eggs that would be found in a high-speed surface plankton net in a 3000m trawl in similar conditions. (b) How many trawls would be required to estimate to within 80 eggs with a 90% condence interval? (c) Does the above data support the assertion that = 650 or not? Use a 10% level of signicance and give your reasoning.
8.8 In a study of 50 imprisoned male rst oenders aged under 30, the mean age at imprisonment

was 20.14 years with a standard deviation of 2.42 years. Use this data to test the statement that nationally the mean age of imprisonment for imprisoned male rst oenders under 30, is 19.78. Use a 3% level of signicance. State your hypotheses, test statistic, rejection region and conclusion carefully.
8.9 A random sample of 200 people living in New Zealand with student loans had an average loan

balance outstanding of $14,169 with a standard deviation of $13,352. Use this to nd a 95% condence interval for the true mean value of outstanding student loans. If it is desired to get an estimate of the true value to within $500 with 95% condence, how large a sample would be required? This next set of exercises gives practice in intervals and testing for means, based on single small samples.
8.10 In eight samples of water from the Baltic Sea near the port of Gdansk, the following weights of

strontium (as a % of the total sample weight) were measured: 4.0, 5.5, 4.5, 4.25, 6.0, 5.75, 4.5, 4.0. (a) Find a 95% condence interval for the mean percentage by weight of strontium in waters near Gdansk. (b) Draw a boxplot of this data. What does it suggest about your condence interval in (a)?
8.11 In past experimentation water samples from the Baltic have had a mean concentration of lead (as

a % of the total sample weight) of 18.0. Recent attempts have been made to clean the area of toxic heavy metals in an eort to lower heavy metal pollution levels. In eight samples of water from the Baltic Sea near the port of Gdansk the weight of lead was measured and the following summary statistics were obtained: x = 17.03, and s = 2.63. Test the claim using a 5% level of signicance. What is the approximate p-value of your result? (Data for Exercises 8.10 and 8.11 provided by Ross Renner.)
8.12 The girth in metres of ten kauri trees are: 16.4, 12.4, 10.1, 9.6, 10.6, 9.7, 10.5, 9.7, 9.7, 9.6.

(a) Using this data construct a 90% condence interval for the mean girth of kauri trees. (b) Approximately what sample size is required to get an accuracy of 0.5m in (a)? (c) In fact, the data above are the girths of the 10 largest kauri. How does this aect your interval estimate for the mean girth of kauri? (Data from Lambert and Palenski, NZ Almanac, 1983, p263.)
8.13 Over 24 trading days the mean sales volume (in $000/day) for a retail outlet is 6.28 with a standard

deviation of 4.13. (a) Construct a 99% condence interval for the mean sales volume per day for this outlet. (b) The data for a subsample of 11 days for the outlet are: 9.41, 2.79, 10.21, 1.08, 7.38, 9.07, 5.03, 6.37, 14.98, 8.66, 5.88. Draw a boxplot of this data. What does the boxplot indicate about the validity of the condence interval in (a)? Justify your answer.
8.14 Lengths (in cm) of a sample of adult cave wetas from the Karori Sanctuary are: 2.1, 2.4, 1.5, 2.2,

2.1, 2.6, 1.7, 2.2, 2.6, 1.8, 2.0, 2.4, 1.3, 2.3, 1.9, 1.9, 2.1, 1.8. (a) Using this sample, test the hypothesis that the mean length of adult cave wetas is 2.15cm. Use a 1% level of signicance. (b) What is the approximate p-value of this test? Why is it approximate? 75

8.15 Anxiety levels are usually elevated in persons with low self-esteem, although there are gender

dierences in the extent to which this is true. In a random sample of 24 17-year-old females with known low self-esteem the average anxiety score on a standard test was 7.62 with a standard deviation of 3.45. Construct a 95% condence interval for the true mean anxiety score on this scale for 17-year-old females with self-esteem problems. What is the margin of error associated with this condence interval?
8.16 The driver of the Subaru in Exercise 2.5 wishes to compare the fuel consumption of his car on

long-distance trips to the gure stated by the New Zealand Automobile Association as appropriate for his size car, which is 11.26 km/L. The long distance fuel consumption gures (km/L) were: 11.6, 10.7, 11.5, 10.1, 10.5, 10.9, 11.0, 10.6, 10.6, 10.8, 11.1, 11.6, 11.3, 11.6, 10.5. Test whether or not his fuel consumption is worse than the recommended value for his size car. Use a 5% level for the test.
8.17 The average minutes per day spent by non-Mori females in New Zealand on unpaid caring for a

others outside the home is 6.0. A random sample of 28 Mori women spent an average of 10.5 a minutes per day with a standard deviation of 9.2 minutes in unpaid caring for others outside the home. Is this evidence that Mori women spend more time than non-Mori women in unpaid a a caring for others outside the home? Use a 1% level of signicance. (Data based on the New Zealand Time Use Survey 1998-1999. Statistics New Zealand)
8.18 The average testosterone level in ng/dL of saliva of 45 to 50-year-old sedentary males is thought

to be 9.4. A random sample of 15 males in this age group had an average level of 10.2 with a variance of 5.29. Does this information support the accepted level of testosterone in this age group of males? Test at the 10% level of signicance. The next exercises give practice performing the sign test.
8.19 Twelve prison inmates with no gang aliations, who were convicted of violent oences, took part in

an anger management course. Before the course began the median score on an anger control assessment of this group was 42 (out of a maximum of 60). After the six-month course the participants scores on the same assessment were: 35, 45, 45, 44, 57, 34, 39, 47, 58, 39, 42, 39. The course is designed to lower anger control scores. Perform a sign test on this suggestion using = 0.05. Why is a sign test appropriate for this data?
8.20 Twelve building projects in the Auckland region in 2001 were costed in detail. In 1999 the median

cost of similar type buildings was $0.55 million. The cost (in $million) of these twelve projects in 2001 were: 0.45, 0.65, 0.55, 0.49, 0.69, 0.40, 0.39, 0.57, 0.68, 0.49, 0.52, 0.59. The expectation is that costs have risen. Perform a sign test on this suggestion using = 0.05.
8.21 Ten participants in a physical tness programme had their fasting blood sugar levels taken 21

days after the programme began. Results were: 92, 108, 104, 102, 93, 85, 90, 93, 88, 103. It has been suggested that the median fasting blood sugar level of people undertaking a physical tness programme will be lower than the usual median of 105. Perform a sign test to test this supposition using = 0.05 and explain why the sign test is appropriate in this situation.
8.22 One-half of each of seven leaves is treated with one preparation of a virus, the other half with

another. The dierence in the number of lesions for the two halves of each leaf is recorded as follows: 3, 4, 8, 1, 1, 5, 1. Test the hypothesis that there is no dierence between the eect of the treatments using the sign test and a t-test, using = 0.05. By drawing a boxplot, or otherwise, decide which is the most appropriate of these two tests in this situation.
8.23 Ten small Wellington businesses were surveyed on their protability in their rst year of trading.

The prots recorded were (in $000): 17, 8, 4.3, 6.5, 15.3, 18.2, 25, 27.6, 29.9, 87.5. You are hired to test whether or not small Wellington businesses are earning positive prots on average. (a) Draw a modied boxplot of the data. (b) Use a sign test to test for positive prots. Use a 5% level.

76

8.24 The data on the girths in metres of the ten largest kauri trees in Exercise 8.12 are thought to come

from a distribution that has a median of ten metres. Carry out a sign test on this suggestion with = 0.1 and a two-sided alternative.
8.25 Fifteen randomly selected house sale prices in the Wellington suburb of Karori during early 2004

were (in $000): 235, 280, 289, 290, 310, 315, 335, 340, 340, 365, 480.5, 505, 128, 144, 182. The median sales price for the Western suburbs (of which Karori is one) during the same period was $413,000. (a) Draw a modied boxplot of these sales gures. Is a t-test appropriate for this data? (b) Does the sample indicate that the Karori properties were cheaper than the average? Use the sign test and = 5%. (Thanks to Ron Beccard for the data.) In this set of exercises, we practice inference for a population proportion based on large samples.
8.26 In the work on memory done by Wade et al (see Exercise 2.22) with a sample of 35 students

shown ve photos, one of which had been doctored to show a hot air balloon, 14 students became convinced that they had experienced a hot air balloon ride when young which was not in fact the case. (a) Find a point estimate for the proportion of all students who would believe this if shown the photos. (b) Is this a situation in which the CLT can be applied? Justify your answer. (c) Using this sample data nd a 95% condence interval for the true proportion of students who could be induced to have a false memory of an event by using photographs. (d) In her pilot study with just a few people, Wade had found that 50% of her subjects were able to have a false memory induced. Use your condence interval to establish whether or not it is likely that 50% of the population can have such a memory planted. Redo this using a formal hypothesis test with = 0.05, stating hypotheses, test statistic, rejection region and conclusion. (e) Find the p-value of your test in (d).
8.27 About 1 child in 30 in New Zealand is born with a structural defect. If a sample of 400 children

born in Wellington in a year is looked at and the proportion with structural defects is noted, will it be possible to work out a 95% condence interval for the true proportion with structural defects in this city, in order for reasonable health services planning to take place? Justify your answer.
8.28 As part of regular monitoring of the national data base for mental health, MHINC (Mental Health

Information National Collection), 70 mental health les were randomly selected from the records of a particular District Health Board over a two-month period. Only 40 of these records were found to have recorded a diagnosis. (a) Can the CLT be used in this situation? Why? (b) Use this data to nd a 95% condence interval for the national proportion of mental health records with a recorded diagnosis. (c) One would hope that the true proportion of records that contained a recorded diagnosis would be at least 80%. Does the data support this? (Test at a 5% level of signicance). (Data from New Zealand Health Intelligence Services)
8.29 Intravenous urography is the X-ray study of kidneys following the injection into a vein of a contrast

medium (CM). The established CM is known to induce severe nausea in 12% of all patients. A new CM produces much better pictures but an increased nausea rate would be an unacceptable side-eect. In a trial of 70 patients on the new CM, 13 experienced severe nausea. (a) Find a 90% condence interval for p, the true proportion of patients in general who would experience severe nausea with the new CM. (b) Test the hypothesis H0 : p = 12% against the alternative Ha : p > 12% at a 5% level of signicance. (c) What is the p-value of your test in (b)? Explain what your answer means. 77

(d) Using the results of this study, how large should the sample be in order to be 90% condent that the sample proportion is within 5% (0.05) of the true proportion?
8.30 Of 50 students sampled from Victoria University, 14 exercised regularly.

(a) Calculate a 95% condence interval for the proportion of all students in that university who exercise regularly. Why can you be condent of your result? (b) A similar 95% condence interval was constructed for the proportion of students at Auckland University who exercised regularly. The resulting condence interval was (0.29, 0.36). What is wrong with the following statement? The true proportion of students at Auckland University that exercise regularly is between 0.29 and 0.36 with probability 0.95.

78

8.31 Among 69,224 newborns registered in New Zealand in 2003, 33,937 were girls.

(a) Give a point estimate for p, the proportion of newborns that are girls. (b) Calculate a 95% condence interval for p, the proportion of newborns that are girls. (c) How large a sample would be needed to reduce the width of the 95% condence interval to 0.002? (d) Based on the condence interval in (b), could you support the statement that a newborn baby is equally likely to be a boy or girl? Justify your answer.
8.32 In a random sample of 50 possums captured in the Rimutaka Ranges, 23 were found to have

tuberculosis. (a) Can the CLT be used to nd a condence interval for the true proportion of possums carrying tuberculosis in New Zealand? Justify your answer. (b) Calculate a 99% condence interval for the proportion of possums in New Zealand carrying this disease. (c) What is the margin of error in the condence interval that you calculated in (b)? How could this margin of error be reduced in size?
8.33 A company bases its warranty on the assumption that 80% of customers who buy its microwave

ovens will have no repairs within the rst two years of purchase. In a sample of 100 of these ovens only 70 lasted for at least two years without a repair being necessary. (a) Find a 98% condence interval for the true proportion of these ovens that will last without repair for two years or more. (b) How big a sample would you require to obtain the true proportion with a margin of error of 3% at a 98% level of condence?
8.34 In May 2004, the unemployment rate in New Zealand dropped to a 16-year low of 4.6%. This was

bettered by only four other OECD countries. In Wellington in a random sample of 160 people of employable age not involved in tertiary education, seven were found to be unemployed. Does this support the widely held view that the unemployment rate in Wellington is lower than in the country as a whole? Use = 0.05.
8.35 A political poll of 500 randomly selected voters gave X = 230 people in favour of the bypass

through central Wellington. (a) Find a 90% condence interval for the true proportion of voters in favour of the bypass. Using your condence interval, is there any suggestion that 50% of voters favour the bypass? (b) Show, using the results of the poll, that at least 6722 respondents are needed to get the estimated proportion to within 0.01 of the true value at the 90% level.
8.36 Billboards around Wellington state that 49% of all road accidents in the region happen at inter-

sections. In Wellington from December 2003 to May 2004, 145 accidents occurred at intersections and 190 did not. Has the rate of accidents at intersections decreased since the introduction of the billboards in November? Test using a 5% level of signicance. (Data supplied by James King, LTSA.)
8.37 There are approximately 530 species of moss in New Zealand of which three are known to be under

threat. Give a point estimate of the proportion of New Zealand mosses that are under threat. Can we use this to get a 95% condence interval for the the proportion of New Zealand mosses that are under threat? If your answer is yes, calculate this interval. If your answer is no, explain why. Solutions
8.1 95% CI is 24.93 1.96 8.74/ 49 = 24.93 2.4472 = (22.5, 27.4). 8.2 (a) Test statistic Z = (5.5381 5.7)/(0.4875/ 40) = 2.1. Rejection region is values < 1.645.

Test statistic is in rejection region, so reject H0 . (b) p-value is P (Z < 2.1) = 0.5 0.4821 = 0.0179. Needs to have been a random sample of locations.

79

8.3 (a) 118.6 1.6449 79.05/ 320 = 118.6 7.26886 = (111.3, 125.9).

8.4

8.5

8.6

8.7

8.8

8.9

8.10

(b) 125.5 is in the 90% condence interval so we would not reject H0 at the 10% level. (c) 1.6449 79.05/ n = 4, so n = (1.6449 79.05/4)2 = 1056.72, and we would need 1057 schools to get the required margin of error. (d) September may not be a typical month as the school holidays usually fall within it, absences may be more marked in spring and summer. It may be better to take several weeks of data instead of just one. (a) 24.857 1.96 3.924/ 64 = 24.857 0.961 = (23.9, 25.8). (b) n = (1.96 3.924/0.5)2 = 236.608, we would need a sample size of 237 to get the required margin of error. (a) H0 : = 3.94 vs Ha : < 3.94. Test statistic Z = (3.62 3.94)/(0.78/ 38) = 2.53. Rejection region is values < 2.33. Z is in rejection region, so reject H0 . (b) p-value is P (Z < 2.53) = 0.5 0.4943 = 0.0057. There is a very small chance (less than 1%) of getting this sample or one more extreme, if H0 is actually true. (c) 99% CI is 3.62 2.58 0.78/ 38 = 3.62 0.326 = (3.29, 3.95). H0 : = 11.26 vs Ha : < 11.26. Test statistic Z = (10.097 11.26)/(1.055/ 30) = 6.04. Rejection region is values < 1.6449. Z is in rejection region, so reject H0 . (a) 90% CI is 674.85 1.645 359.17/ 30 = 674.85 107.87 = (567.0, 782.7) (b) n = (1.645 359.17/80)2 = 54.545, so the sample size would need to be 55 to get a margin of error of 80 eggs. (c) 650 is in the 90% condence interval so we would not reject H0 at the 10% level, so could be 650. H0 : = 19.78 vs Ha : = 19.78. Test statistic Z = (20.14 19.78)/(2.42/ 50) = 1.052. 3% rejection region is values < 2.1701 or > 2.1701. Z is not in the rejection region, so do not reject H0 and conclude that the mean age of imprisoned male rst oenders under 30 could be 19.87 years. 95% CI is 14169 1.96 13352/ 200 = 14169 1850.4927 = (12318.5, 16019.5). n = (1.96 13352/500)2 = 2739.46, the sample size would need to be 2740 to get a margin of error of $500. (a) x = 4.8125, s = 0.81009 and n = 8 < 30 so 95% CI is 4.8125 2.365 0.81009/ 8 = 4.8125 0.6774 = (4.14, 5.49). (b) LQ = 4.125, median = 4.5, and U Q = 5.625 with a highly asymmetric boxplot which casts doubt on whether the underlying distribution is normal as required by the t-test. The CI is not likely to be a good estimate.
Boxplot of Strontium levels

4.0

4.5

5.0

5.5

6.0

amount of strontium (%)

is values < 1.895. T is not in the rejection region so do not reject H0 . Using the t7 tables, the approximate p-value is greater that 10% as the critical value with 10% of the distribution below it is 1.415. 8.12 (a) x = 10.83, s = 2.135 and n = 10 < 30 so 95% CI is 10.83 1.833 2.135/ 10 = 10.83 1.238 = (9.59, 12.07). (b) n = (1.833 2.135/0.5)2 = 61.261, so 62 kauri trees would need to be sampled to get an accuracy of 0.5m. (c) The interval will give an upper bound for the girth of kauri, i.e. the condence interval values

8.11 H0 : = 18 vs Ha : < 18. Test statistic T = (17.03 18)/(2.63/ 8) = 1.04. Rejection region

80

will be far too high using only the largest trees.

8.13 (a) n = 24 < 30 so 99% CI is 6.28 2.807 4.13/ 24 = 6.28 2.3664 = (3.91, 8.65).

(b) LQ = 5.03, median = 7.38, U Q = 9.41. Very symmetric boxplot which supports underlying normality. Indicates a valid CI.
Boxplot of Sales Volume

10

12

14

sales volume ($000/day)

8.14 (a) x = 2.05, s = 0.354.

H0 : = 2.15 vs Ha : = 2.15. Test statistic T = (2.05 2.15)/(0.354/ 18) = 1.2. = 1%, so t17 rejection region is values < 2.898 or > 2.898. T is not in the rejection region so do not reject H0 , i.e. the mean length of cave wetas could be 2.15. (b) The approximate p-value is a little greater than 20% as the two-sided 20% t17 values are 1.333. 8.15 95% CI is 7.62 2.069 3.45/ 24 = 7.62 1.457 = (6.16, 9.08). The margin of error is 1.457. H0 : 11.26)/(0.476/ 15) = 2.439. the rejection region so reject H0 is worse than the recommended

= 11.26 vs Ha : < 11.26. Test statistic T = (10.96 For = 5%, t14 rejection region is values < 1.761. T is in in favour of Ha . The evidence supports that the fuel consumption value for this car. 8.17 H0 : = 6 vs Ha : > 6. Test statistic T = (10.5 6)/(9.2/ 28) = 2.588. = 1% rejection region is values > 2.473. T is in the rejection region so reject H0 in favour of Ha . There is evidence that Mori woman spend more time in unpaid caring for others outside the home. a 8.18 H0 : = 9.4 vs Ha : = 9.4. Test statistic T = (10.29.4)/(2.3/ 15) = 1.347. t14 rejection region is values < 1.761 and > 1.761. T is not in rejection region so cannot reject H0 . Information supports accepted testosterone level.
8.19 H0 : M = 42 vs Ha : M < 42. n = 12. Comparing with 42 and assigning + to over 42:

8.16 x = 10.96, s 0.476. =

, +, +, +, +, , , +, +, , 0, . Discarding the value 42, n = 11 and there are 5 below and 6 above m0 . Test statistic is X = 6. If H0 true, X Bin(11, 0.5) and p-value of this result is P (X 6) = 1 P (X 7) = 1 0.2744 = 0.7256 > 0.05 so we do not reject H0 . A boxplot of this data (with LQ = 39, median = 43, U Q = 46) is asymmetric which casts doubt on any underlying normality and thus a sign test is appropriate with this small sample.

8.20 H0 : M = 0.55 vs Ha : M > 0.55. n = 12. Comparing with 0.55 and assigning + to over 0.55:

, +, 0, , +, , , +, +, , , +. Discarding the value 0.55, n = 11 and there are 6 below and 5 above m0 . Test statistic is X = 5. If H0 true, X Bin(11, 0.5) and p-value of this result is P (X 5) = 0.7256 > 0.05 so we do not reject H0 . If M = 0.55, getting 5 values above and 6 values below is a highly likely event.

8.21 H0 : M = 105 vs Ha : M < 105. n = 10. Comparing with 105 and assigning + to over 105:

, +, , , , , , , , . There are 9 below and 1 above m0 . Test statistic is X = 1. If H0 true, X Bin(10, 0.5) and p-value of this result is P (X 1) = 0.0010 + 0.0098 = 0.0108 < 0.05 so we must reject H0 . A boxplot of this data (with LQ = 90, median = 93, and U Q = 103) is highly asymmetric, which casts doubt on any underlying normality so you should not use a t-test.

8.22 Sign test: H0 : M = 0 vs Ha : M = 0. n = 7. Comparing with 0 and assigning + to over 0:

+, +, +, , +, +, +. There are 1 below and 6 above m0 . Test statistic is X = min(1, 6) = 1. If H0 true, X Bin(7, 0.5) and p-value of this result is 2 P (X 1) = 2 (0.0078 + 0.0547) = 0.125 > 0.05 so must not reject H0 . For the t-test: H0 : = 0 vs Ha : = 0. Test statistic we T = (3 0)/(3/ 7) = 2.646. t6 rejection region is values < 2.447 and values > 2.447. T is in the rejection region so we reject H0 . There is a dierence between the two treatments. LQ = 1, median = 3, U Q = 5, and the boxplot is fairly symmetric, so the t-test is valid in this situation. 81

Boxplot of Difference in Treatment of Leaves

difference in number of lesions

8.23 (a)

Boxplot of First Year Profitability

20

20

40

60

80

profit ($000)

(b) H0 : M = 0 vs Ha : M > 0. n = 10. Comparing with 0 and assigning + to over 0: , , , +, +, +, +, +, +, +. There are 3 below and 7 above m0 . Test statistic is X = 7. If H0 true, X Bin(10, 0.5) and p-value is P (X 7) = 0.1719 > 0.05 so we must not reject H0 .
8.24 H0 : M = 10 vs Ha : M = 10. Data gives us 5 above 10, and 5 below. Test statistic is X = 5

(number above). If H0 true, X Bin(10, 0.5). Here the p-value instruction fails, because P (X = 5) is included twice, i.e. we would calculate 2 P (X 5) = 2 0.623 = 1.246. In fact, the p-value is 1, since if H0 is true, half the observations will be above and half below and this is exactly what we observed. We have no evidence to reject H0 . LQ 1.5IQR = 235 157.5 = 77.5 and U Q + 1.5IQR = 340 + 157.5 = 497.5. 505 is the only outlier and the upper whisker extends out to the next largest observation 480.5
Boxplot of House Sale Prices

8.25 (a) min = 128, LQ = 235, median = 310, U Q = 340 and max = 505; IQR = 340 235 = 105,

200

300

400

500

sale price ($000)

A t-test is probably not appropriate as the data is asymmetric with an outlier. (b) H0 : M = 413 vs Ha : M < 413. n = 15. Comparing with 413, the data gives us 13 below and 2 above m0 . Test statistic is X = 2. If H0 true, X Bin(15, 0.5) and p-value is P (X 2) = 0.0000 + 0.0005 + 0.0032 = 0.0037 < 0.05 so we should reject H0 .
8.26 (a) p = 14/35 = 0.4.

(b) n 30 and p 3 p(1 p)/35 = 0.4 0.248 which both lie between 0 and 1, so assuming it is a random sample, we can use CLT. (c) 95% CI is 0.4 1.96 0.4 0.6/35 = 0.4 0.1623 = (0.24, 0.56). (d) 0.5 is inside the CI, supporting H0 : p = 0.5. Test H0 : p = 0.5 vs Ha : p = 0.5. Test statistic Z = (0.4 0.5)/( 0.5 0.5/35) = 1.18. Rejection region is values < 1.96 or > 1.96. Test statistic is not in rejection region, so we cannot reject H0 . (e) p-value is 2 P (Z > 1.18) = 2 (0.5 0.3810) = 0.2380.
8.27 p = 1/30 = 0.033 and n = 400. Need to check if the CLT holds: n 30, p 3

p(1 p)/400 = 0.0330.027 which both lie between 0 and 1, so we can use CLT if we assume it is a random sample.

82

The 95% CI is 0.0333 1.96 0.009 = 0.0333 0.018 = (0.015, 0.051). The true proportion is likely to lie within 1.5% and 5.1%.
8.28 (a) p = 40/70 = 0.571 and n = 70. Need to check if the CLT holds: n 30, p 3

p(1 p)/400 = 0.571 0.177 which both lie between 0 and 1 and it was a random sample so we can use CLT. (b) 95% CI is 0.571 1.96 0.059 = 0.571 0.116 = (0.455, 0.687). The true proportion is likely to lie within 45.5% and 68.7%. (c) 0.80 is not in the 95% condence interval, so we would reject H0 : p = 0.80 at the 5% level, in favour of p < 0.80. A formal test conrms this. 90% CI is 0.186 1.645 0.186(1 0.186)/70 = 0.186 0.0765 = (0.110, 0.263). (b) Test statistic Z = (0.186 0.12)/ 0.12 0.88/70 = 1.70. Rejection region is values > 1.645. Test statistic lies in rejection region so we reject H0 . (c) p-value is P (Z > 1.70) = 0.5 0.4554 = 0.0446. There is a 4.46% chance of getting this result if H0 is true. (d) Setting 1.645 0.186 (1 0.186)/n = 0.05 we get n = 163.9, so required sample size is at least 164. 0.28(1 0.28)/50 = 0.28 0.1245 = (0.156, 0.404). (b) We cant make a statement about the probability being 0.95. Instead, either we are 95% condent lies in this interval or 95% of such intervals will contain .

8.29 (a) p = 13/70 = 0.186.

8.30 (a) p = 14/50 = 0.28. 95% CI is 0.28 1.96

8.31 (a) p = 33937/69224 = 0.490.

(b) 0.49 1.96 0.49(1 0.49)/69224 = 0.49 0.004 giving (0.486, 0.494). (c) n = (1.96/0.002)2 0.49 0.51 = 240003.96, we would need a sample size of 240004. (d) If a newborn baby is equally likely to be a boy or a girl, p = 0.5. 0.5 is above the 95% condence interval, so it is more likely to be a boy than a girl.
8.32 (a) p = 23/50 = 0.46 and n = 50 30, p 3

p(1 p)/50 = 0.46 0.21 which both lie between 0 and 1 and it was a random sample, so we can use CLT. (b) 99% CI is 0.46 2.5758 0.46(1 0.46)/50 = 0.46 0.182 = (0.278, 0.642). (c) The margin of error is 2.5758 0.46(1 0.46)/50 = 0.182, it can be reduced in size if you increase the sample size. 0.70(1 0.70)/100 = 0.70 0.107 = (0.593, 0.807). Note that this includes the companys value p = 0.8. (b) n = (2.3263/0.03)2 0.80 0.20 = 962.075, we would need a sample size of 963 to get the required margin of error. Using the sample value p gives a more conservative estimate of n = 1263. fails as p 3 p(1 p)/n < 0.

8.33 (a) 98% CI is 0.70 2.3263

8.34 p = 7/160 = 0.04375 which is too close to zero for normal approximation to be used. The CLT 8.35 (a) p = 230/500 = 0.46. 90% CI is 0.461.645

0.46(1 0.46)/500 = 0.460.037 = (0.423, 0.497). 0.5 is above the CI, suggesting that less than 50% of voters favour the bypass. (b) 1.645 0.46(1 0.46)/6722 = 0.0099 < 0.01 so the estimated value is within 0.01.

8.36 p = 145/(145 + 190) = 0.433. H0 : p = 0.49 vs Ha : p < 0.49. Test statistic Z = (0.433

0.49) 0.49 0.51/335 = 2.11. Rejection region is values < 1.645. Test statistic lies in rejection region, so we reject H0 .

8.37 p = 3/530 = 0.006.

n = 530 30, p 3 p(1 p)/n = 0.006 0.006(1 0.006)/530 = 0.006 0.01 = 0.004 < 0, therefore the CLT doesnt apply, and we cant nd a condence interval without resorting to the binomial distribution.

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Chapter 9
Exercises The rst set of exercises are based on large sample comparisons of means.
9.1 The playing time of 60 CDs is measured. The 60 CDs were randomly sampled from two populations:

30 CDs were selected from a reggae collection and 30 CDs were selected from a hip-hop collection. Summary statistics are: Reggae CDs Hip-hop CDs n1 = 30 n2 = 30 x1 = 54 min x2 = 48 min s1 = 7 min s2 = 8 min

(a) Test the hypothesis that the populations of all reggae and hip-hop CDs have the same mean playing time using a 1% level of signicance. State your hypotheses, test statistic, rejection region and conclusion explicitly. (b) Calculate the p-value of your test. (c) Find a 90% condence interval for the mean playing time of reggae CDs and a 90% condence interval for the mean playing time of hip-hop CDs. Display these on a number line and comment on your graph.
9.2 In a study of the eects of the anxiety level of mothers on child behaviour, the behavioural problem

checklist (BPC) scores were recorded for 48 children whose mothers were classied as anxious, and for 53 children whose mothers were regarded as not anxious. Summary statistics for these BPC scores are shown below (high scores represent more behavioural problems than low ones). Anxious mothers Non-anxious mothers n1 = 48 n2 = 53 x1 = 7.92 x2 = 5.80 s1 = 3.45 s2 = 2.87

(a) Test the hypothesis that the children of anxious mothers are more likely to have behavioural problems than the children of non-anxious mothers. Use = 0.05. (b) Calculate the p-value for this test. (c) Construct a 90% condence interval for the population mean dierence in BPC scores for children of anxious and non-anxious mothers. (d) If equal sample sizes from both groups of children were taken, what size would this have to be to get the dierence in the population means scores to within 0.7, with 90% condence?
9.3 The duration of sleep (in hours) of 85 patients suering from anxiety and 113 normal controls was

monitored for ve successive nights. Summary statistics for the study are: Normal controls Anxiety patients n1 = 113 n2 = 85 x1 = 7.82 x2 = 7.16 s1 = 2.19 s2 = 2.15

(a) Test the hypothesis H0 : 1 = 2 against Ha : 1 > 2 at the 3% signicance level. (b) Determine the p-value of this test.
9.4 Concentration spans (in minutes) of 180 three-year-old children were measured on a particular

task. The 180 children came from two populations: 120 children regularly attended a preschool centre (such as kindergarten, cr`che, playcentre) and 60 did not. The results were as follows: e No preschool Preschool n1 = 60 n2 = 120 x1 = 11.7 x2 = 12.5 s1 = 4.2 s2 = 4.6

(a) Test the hypothesis H0 : 1 = 2 against Ha : 1 = 2 at the 5% level of signicance. (b) Determine the p-value for this test. (c) Find a 95% condence interval for the dierence in concentration spans for children who did attend preschool and those who did not. Is your result consistent with your test conclusion in (a)? Why is it not very sensible to construct a condence interval in this situation?

84

9.5 A study was conducted to investigate concerns that the construction of a riverside golf course was

aecting local trout species. Sampling was undertaken downstream of the development and also in an unaected nearby stream. Fish were caught, weighed, tagged and released. The sample data follows (weights are in kilograms).
Sample mean Aected stream Unaected stream 2.67 2.42 Standard deviation 0.42 0.45 Sample size 35 32

(a) Using = 3%, test the hypothesis that there is no dierence between the two population mean trout weights. (b) Find the p-value of this test. (c) Form a 95% condence interval for the dierence in the two population mean weights.
9.6 The mean length of stay in hospital after coronary bypass surgery is expected to be the same

throughout the country. Random samples of patients who had undergone coronary bypass surgery in an Auckland hospital and in a Dunedin hospital are summarised below (stay in days): Auckland Dunedin n1 = 48 n2 = 34 x1 = 4.2 x2 = 4.8 s2 = 1.01 1 s2 = 0.53 2

(a) Test, at a 10% level of signicance, whether there is any dierence in the population mean lengths of stay in Dunedin and Auckland. (b) Find a 90% condence interval for the mean dierence in length of stay after coronary bypass surgery, in Auckland and Dunedin.
9.7 The average corpuscle breadth is assumed to be greater in frogs than in tadpoles. Samples from 66

tadpoles gave a sample mean breadth of 15.3 with a standard deviation of 0.86, while in a random sample of 58 frogs the mean breadth was 15.81 and the standard deviation was 1.7. Does this data support the suggestion that the mean breadth of corpuscles for frogs is greater than that for tadpoles? Test at the 1% level of signicance.
9.8 A random sample taken in 2003 of 141 men aged between 28 and 33 who were employed, had an

average wage of $674 per week with a standard deviation of $174.8/week. A sample of 120 such men in 2002 had an average wage of $635/week with a standard deviation of $182.1/week. Test whether the average wage for such men changed signicantly between 2002 and 2003 using a 5% level of signicance. In the following problems, means are compared using small samples.
9.9 A study on the eects of a new drug on the duration of seizures in partially controlled epileptics

was undertaken in order to compare it with the eectiveness of a standard anticonvulsant. A small group of volunteers was carefully monitored over 24 hours on the standard anticonvulsant and ten seizures were observed and timed, while another group on the new drug had 13 seizures timed. It is claimed that the new drug will reduce the duration of seizures. The results were as follows:
Standard treatment Mean duration of seizures (min) Standard deviation Sample size 4.1 1.7 10 New treatment 2.6 0.6 13

(a) Assuming that duration of seizures has a common variability regardless of treatment type, how would you estimate this common variance? (b) Test the above claim at a 5% level of signicance. (c) Construct a 95% condence interval for the dierence in mean duration times of seizures using the standard and new anticonvulsants. (d) If the same number of subjects are selected for both treatments (n), how many must there be to estimate the true dierence between population mean duration of seizures to within about 0.05? 85

9.10 In Exercise 9.9 the testing was redone with thirteen pairs of epileptic twins, putting one twin of

each pair on the standard treatment and the other on the new treatment. Seizures were initiated with strobe lights and the following data was collected:
Twin family A B 4.1 2.6 C 3.8 2.4 D 4.4 2.8 E F G 3.7 2.1 H 4.2 2.7 I 4.7 2.9 J 3.5 1.9 K L M 4.3 2.8

Old treatment 3.9 New treatment 2.4

4.6 4.0 2.9 2.5

3.2 4.1 1.1 2.5

Retest the hypothesis that the new treatment reduces seizure duration under these new conditions using a matched pairs test at the 5% level of signicance. Justify this choice of test.
9.11 Ten water samples were taken from the port of Gdansk and a further eight from Baltiysk. In each

case the percentage of strontium by weight was measured. The port area is thought to be more highly polluted by strontium than sea near Baltiysk. The following data was obtained: Gdansk Baltiysk n1 = 10 n2 = 8 x1 = 4.81 x2 = 4.58 s1 = 0.81 s2 = 0.87

(a) In order to establish whether the above claim is correct, what assumptions need to be made about the populations that these samples were drawn from? (b) Assuming that your assumptions in (a) are valid, test the above claim at a 1% level of signicance. (c) What is the approximate p-value of your result in (b)? Why is your answer an approximation? (Data provided by Ross Renner.)
9.12 A company is considering whether to close one of its branches and expand one of its two South

Auckland outlets. The decision has to be made as to which of the two outlets will give a greater return on expansion. Both outlets are thriving, have available space, and both have similar running costs. One suggestion has been to expand the one currently most protable, which entails some risk as prots could be at a maximum already, but since this is equally true for the other store this risk is disregarded. Management has speculated that Outlet A would have a lower mean sales volume as parking is limited in the vicinity. Over 24 trading days the mean sales volume (in $000 per day) for each of these two outlets are calculated and the data is as follows:
Outlet A Mean sales volume Standard deviation Sample size 6.28 4.13 24 Outlet B 8.58 5.14 24

(a) Assuming that sales volumes have a common variability regardless of location, how would you estimate this common variance? (b) The data is to be used to test the above suggestion. State the null and alternative hypotheses and test the null hypothesis at the 5% level of signicance. (c) The data for a subsample of 12 trading days for Outlet A are: 9.41, 2.79, 10.21, 1.08, 7.38, 9.07, 5.03, 6.37, 14.98, 8.66, 5.88, 6.06. Draw a modied boxplot of this data. (d) What assumptions, other than equal variances, are required to ensure that your conclusion in (b) is valid? What does the boxplot indicate about the validity of this remaining assumption? Justify your answer.
9.13 In a study to assess the impact of an industrial development on a nearby river, one of the many

variables monitored was water temperature. It has been suggested that mean water temperature is higher in this river than in a similar river 30km away that is not considered to be aected by the development. Daily temperature readings in degrees Celsius at 3pm were taken for a fortnight in February from each river at the same longitude. Two days readings from the unaected river were spoiled, but the remaining data are summarised below:

86

Unaected river Sample size Mean temperature Standard deviation 12 15.4 0.70

Aected river 14 17.3 0.73

(a) Assuming that temperature has a common variability in both rivers, form an estimate for this common variance using a pooled variance estimator. (b) Construct a 95% condence interval for the dierence in mean temperature in the aected and unaected rivers. (c) Test the hypothesis that there is no dierence in the mean temperatures of these rivers, testing at the 5% level of signicance. (d) If the same number of sample measurements are taken on both rivers (n), how many must there be approximately to estimate the true dierence between mean river temperatures to within about 0.1 degrees with 95% condence?
9.14 The driver of the Subaru in Exercise 2.5 suspects that his fuel consumption gures are made up of

two sorts of usage: long-distance travel and around town motoring. The data are:
Long trips 11.6 11.1 10.7 11.6 11.5 11.3 10.1 11.6 10.5 10.5 10.9 11.0 10.6 10.6 10.8

Around town driving 9.6 9.6 8.5 8.5 9.7 9.3 9.3 10.3 8.6 10.2 8.2 8.7 9.4 8.5 10.1

(a) Test whether or not the fuel consumption of the car is signicantly worse for the around town driving. Use a 5% level for the test. (b) Draw boxplots of the two groups. Do the assumptions of your test appear to be met?
9.15 A group of 23 patients with terminal cancer at a particular site on the body, and at a particular

clinical stage, are given the standard treatment and have their survival time from diagnosis recorded in months. Another group of 19 such patients are treated with an experimental drug and their survival times are similarly recorded. It is hoped that the new drug will increase survival times. The summary of the data is:
Experimental treatment Mean survival time Standard deviation Sample size 48.11 14.36 19 Standard treatment 37.35 19.09 23

(a) Assuming survival times have the same variability, form a point estimate of this common variance. (b) Test the suggestion above at the 5% level of signicance. (c) Construct a 95% condence interval for the dierence in mean survival times for the standard and experimental treatments. (d) If there had been 19 patients in each group with each patient in the standard group, each carefully matched with a patient in the experimental group for age, ethnicity, gender and lifestyle, how would you modify your test statistic used in (b)?
9.16 In an experiment to test whether the gender and appearance of an author makes a person feel more

or less convinced of the validity and usefulness of an article, a group of 18 subjects were shown an article giving health advice with a photo of the supposed author attached. This photo was of a healthy looking male in his thirties. Another group of 18 subjects were shown the same article but this time the photo was of a female in her fties who was very thin. The participants rated the article for usefulness and believability and an overall credibility score was obtained for the article as shown (the higher the score the more credible the article): 87

Male author Mean credibility score Standard deviation Sample size 9.11 1.997 18

Female author 6.55 1.65 18

(a) What assumptions need to be made about the data before a test of this suggestion can be made? (b) Test the above suggestion at the 10% level of signicance. (c) Construct an approximate 90% condence interval for the dierence in mean credibility scores for the article when apparently written by this male and female author. Why is this condence interval only an approximation? (d) What other test could have been used in this situation?
9.17 New Zealand native frogs live a long time (up to 30 years), and continue to grow throughout their

lives. In 1984/5, 100 frogs (Leiopelma pakeka) were translocated from a patch of bush on Maud Island to a new habitat at Boat Bay. The following data set summarises the weight gain (in grams, over the 12 years) of frogs found and weighed both in 1984/5 and 1997. Forty-four were still in the original location, and seven were in Boat Bay. Old habitat New habitat n1 = 44 n2 = 7 x1 = 1.901 x2 = 3.95 s1 = 1.468 s2 = 2.161

Perform a t-test at the 5% level of signicance to see if the new habitat is better than the old. (Data from Bell, Ben D., Shirley Pledger and Paulette L. Dewhurst (2004). The fate of a population of the endemic frog Leiopelma pakeka (Anura: Leiopelmatidae) translocated to restored habitat on Maud Island, New Zealand. New Zealand Journal of Zoology 31: 123131.)
9.18 Possums in the Orongorongo Valley near Wellington have been live trapped, tagged and tattooed.

The following is a sample trapped in March 2004, with their weight recorded (in grams). All possums in this data set have year of birth 2001.
Females 2200 1925 2650 2300 2250 1650 1950 1900 2000 1800 1800 2200 1000 2000 1400 1750 1925 2650 2350 1700 2550 Males 1850 1850 1750 1800 2300 2275

(a) Assuming common variability in weight for males and females, estimate this common variance with a pooled variance. (b) Perform a t-test on the data to establish whether or not there is a dierence in mean weight for male and female possums of the same age. Use = 0.05. (c) Redo the test in (b) using a Mann-Whitney U -test. (d) Which of the tests above is likely to be more reliable in this situation? Why? (Data thanks to Murray Eord of Landcare Research.)
9.19 In a study on the cognitive diculties associated with Parkinsons Disease, 12 Parkinsons suerers

and 12 non-Parkinsons controls of the same age, all take the Mini Mental Status Examination (MMSE), a test of basic mental functioning that is used as a screen for dementia. The summary of scores on this test are as follows:
Control group Mean x Standard deviation, s n 28.58 2.065 12 Parkinsons suerers 27.42 1.782 12

Test whether or not Parkinsons disease patients score lower on the MMSE than non-Parkinsons controls of the same age. Use a 10% level of signicance. (Data provided by Jared Smith.) 88

The next set of exercises involve F -tests of equality of variance for two populations.
9.20 In Exercise 9.11, the problem relied on the populations of water samples from both locations having

the same variance. Use the data from that exercise to test this assumption at the 10% level of signicance.
9.21 In Exercise 9.9, test your assumption of equal variances at the 5% level of signicance. 9.22 In Exercise 9.13, the hypothesis test required an assumption of common variability for the conclu-

sion to be valid. Formally test this hypothesis of common variability at the 5% level of signicance.
9.23 Test the assumption of equal variances for the fuel consumption data in Exercise 9.14. 9.24 In Exercise 9.18 equal variances in possum weights for the two sexes was presumed. Test whether

this is the case at the 5% level of signicance against the alternative that female possums have a greater variance. Does this alter your condence in the result of Exercise 9.18? Justify your answer. This set of exercises are primarily for the Mann-Whitney U -test.
9.25 As part of a battery of psychological tests, two tests of spatial ability were given to two independent

samples of seven subjects each, and the scores were as follows:

Subject D 105 99

A Score on Test I Score on Test II 101 113

B 89 89

C 112 121

E 90 104

F 91 94

G 89 99

The two tests are supposed to measure the same ability. (a) Give reasons why a two-sample t-test may not be appropriate to test the above claim. (b) Perform a Mann-Whitney U -test on the data at the 5% level of signicance. (c) If the values 113 and 121 of the scores on Test II were recorded wrongly and should have been 118 and 127, how would this alter the conclusion of the Mann-Whitney U -test? Give a reason for your answer (no calculation necessary). (d) Actually, the two samples contained the same individuals. Retest the hypotheses in light of this new information.
9.26 A group of patients with a certain disease is divided randomly into two groups. Group 1 is treated

with drug A for one month and group 2 is treated with drug B for the same period. The blood pressure of each patient is recorded twice daily and the total number of times it exceeds a specied safe level in the month is recorded in the following table: Group 1 Group 2 13 7 7 3 11 10 20 6 12 6 8 8 9 4 13 12

11

(a) It has been suggested that the two drugs have an equivalent eect when it comes to reducing blood pressure. This hypothesis is to be tested at the 5% level of signicance. Perform a Mann-Whitney U -test on the data. (b) If the value 20 in group 1 should really have been 30, would this alter the conclusion of the test?
9.27 In order to compare the average yields of two varieties of bulgar wheat, nine test plots of variety

A and ten of variety B are compared for yield. Variety A: Variety B: 92.2 82.9 90.3 96.1 85.7 94.0 85.2 87.7 89.1 102.0 87.4 87.8 91.5 100.2 85.6 86.0 91.6 88.5

89.8

Use a Mann-Whitney U -test to make this comparison with = 0.05.

89

9.28 Fourteen towns of approximately equal size are chosen for a trac safety study. Eight of these

towns are randomly selected and in these towns a series of articles on trac safety are run in the local newspaper for a six-month period. The number of reported accidents in the week following the safety campaign is: Safety articles group Control group 4 6 7 9 10 12 11 13 17 13 18 16 19 21

Use a Mann-Whitney U -test to decide whether this campaign has been eective at the 5% level of signicance.
9.29 A study was undertaken on the number of victims of violent crime in two police areas known to

be comparable in terms of social indicators: Lower Hutt and Waitakere. The following data was collected over a six-week period:
1 Lower Hutt Waitakere 4 10 2 7 13 Week 3 4 9 14 12 14 5 13 16 6 13 21

Perform a Mann-Whitney U -test on whether the median numbers of victims of violent crime are the same in the two areas using = 0.05.
9.30 The actual data from Exercise 9.17 is as follows: Original location 1.67 0.50 -1.70 3.25 2.40 0.25 2.72 1.66 1.50 2.55 0.43 1.65 3.50 1.97 3.15 2.33 4.20 0.00 1.18 -0.27 2.85 1.27 4.10 1.27 2.22 2.93 1.10 1.48 1.07 0.80 3.07 2.20 0.10 0.58 3.15 5.97 0.85 -0.30 1.20 4.18 2.20 3.68 1.80 2.93

New Boat Bay location 2.55 3.80 2.30 4.45 8.50 3.60 2.45

Using the normal approximation, perform a Mann-Whitney U -test to establish whether the new location is any dierent for the frogs (in terms of median weight gain) than the old at a 1% level of signicance. Why might the normal approximation not be very good in this instance?
9.31 A random sample of sales gures for three-bedroom residential apartments in each of Central

Wellington and Central Auckland from March-May 2004 are (in $000):
Wellington Auckland 1700 670.5 460 498 655 255 600 92 570 100 493 1700 475 310 290 360 370 360 385 490

(a) Draw modied boxplots of each of these two samples. (b) Test for a dierence in medians using the Mann-Whitney U -test, at the 5% level. (Data thanks to Ron Beccard.)
9.32 The data on skinks rst met in Exercise 3.18 is partially as follows: Pasture 4 1 5 3 5 14 0 6 6 2 5 8 2 6 10 1 11 7 4 3 4 1 1 8 2 1 13 5 4 6 0 8

Replanted forest 15 1 13 24 17 12 31 12 11 8 27 8 4 26 10 18 18 17 14 6 29 33 12 3 11 16 12 16 11 5 20 8

90

Perform a Mann-Whitney U -test to establish whether the median number of skinks per trap is the same in the two habitats: pasture and replanted forest. Use a 1% level of signicance. Repeat the test using the normal approximation. The following data sets involve dependent samples and give practice for paired comparisons.
9.33 A study of red beech (Nothofagus fusca) was undertaken in the Nelson Lakes area. Six locations

all at the same altitude were randomly chosen in the St Arnaud Range. At each location a quadrat was laid down, and then a second, 200m higher than the rst. The number of red beech trees (including saplings and seedlings) were counted in each quadrat giving the following data: Lower altitude Higher altitude 17 8 19 14 22 18 21 17 28 17 19 12

It is expected that the mean number of red beech trees per quadrat will decline with altitude. Using a matched pairs test with = 0.05, test this supposition. Why is a matched pairs test sensible in this situation?
9.34 In Tongariro National Park, New Zealand mistletoe is under threat from possums. Ten quadrats

were placed at random at a xed altitude. Each quadrat was left in place for a year, with half of each quadrat given possum protection (in the form of fencing). At the end of this period the mistletoe in the quadrats was scored for the amount of leaf browse from 1 = almost none to 5 = almost total and resulted in the following data: Unprotected half Protected half 3 2 3 1 5 3 4 2 1 1 3 5 5 3 2 1 5 2 4 3

Test whether or not the protection is eective in terms of reducing leaf browse at a 10% level of signicance using a matched pairs test.
9.35 It was widely assumed that visitor numbers to New Zealand would be aected by the September

11, 2001 terrorist attacks. The following data, looks at ve months of visitor arrivals before and after this date.
January Arrivals 2001 Arrivals 2002 6380 6604 February 7135 7580 March 5706 6532 April 5106 4796 May 3579 3813

Test the above assumption at the 5% level of signicance, choosing an appropriate test statistic. (Data thanks to David Lowrie, Statistics New Zealand.)
9.36 The metabolic rate of animals is often measured by oxygen consumption in a closed chamber.

Resting metabolic rate was measured in the Marlborough green gecko (Naultinus manukanus) over ve trials on successive days, to nd if the animals needed conditioning to accustom them to the chamber before their resting metabolic rate could be reliably measured. The following partial data set gives the metabolic rate readings at which each individual settled enough for a reading to be taken, at the rst and second trials. Use a matched pairs test to establish whether the data present evidence that the animals settled to a lower rate of oxygen consumption at the second trial? The measurement is volume (mL) of oxygen per hour per unit body mass (g). Vol1 represents the rst trial, Vol2 the second.
Gecko Vol1 Vol2 Gecko Vol1 Vol2 1 0.150 0.132 11 0.073 0.076 2 0.061 0.058 12 0.147 0.067 3 0.126 0.105 13 0.150 0.149 4 0.098 0.078 14 0.063 0.060 5 0.109 0.080 15 0.086 0.080 6 0.076 0.085 16 0.079 0.078 7 0.130 0.103 17 0.192 0.140 8 0.062 0.068 18 0.084 0.064 9 0.075 0.074 19 0.102 0.107 10 0.099 0.080 20 0.090 0.097

91

(a) Why is a matched pairs an appropriate test in this situation? (b) Perform the matched pairs test at the 5% level of signicance stating carefully your hypotheses, test statistic and conclusion. (c) Redo using a sign test on the dierences in metabolic rate from trial 1 to trial 2 using a 5% level of signicance. What do you conclude? (Thanks to Kelly Hare and Shirley Pledger for this data.)
9.37 A test rating a persons sense of humour on a scale from 0 to 100 was given to 15 married couples,

the scores obtained being: Wives Husbands 49, 88, 51, 50, 86, 41, 52, 69, 83, 89, 77, 87, 65, 44, 92 56, 90, 38, 47, 85, 40, 55, 58, 68, 74, 83, 62, 60, 31, 89

Use the sign test to decide, on the basis of the data, whether there is a dierence in the average sense of humour of husbands and wives.
9.38 Referring again to the experiment conducted by Wade et al described in Exercise 2.22, in question

D the subjects had to respond to I believe the event in my memory really occurred in the way I remember it and that I have not imagined or fabricated anything that did not occur, and in question F to: As I remember the event, I am extremely condent that the event occurred. In both cases a low score corresponds to a low belief or condence that the event really occurred. The scores (out of 7) of ten of the subjects on these two questions were as follows: Question D Question F 5 3 4 6 5 5 5 6 6 6 7 7 6 4 3 4 2 5 6 6

(a) Perform a sign test on whether the median scores on these two questions are the same using = 0.05. (b) Why is a sign test appropriate here and not a t-test? (Thanks to Kimberley Wade for the data.)
9.39 The following data are the percentage returns on the top ten New Zealand stocks (NZSX10), and

also for the Australian Stock Exchange (ASX) for 1990-2004.

Year NZSX10 ASX Year NZSX10 ASX 1990 0.06 0.00 1998 0.22 0.04 1991 0.25 0.00 1999 0.00 0.15 1992 0.02 0.08 2000 0.02 0.04 1993 0.04 0.05 2001 0.07 0.07 1994 0.26 0.16 2002 0.07 0.05 1995 0.03 0.01 2003 0.03 0.05 1996 0.02 0.13 2004 0.10 0.15 1997 0.14 0.18

(a) Conduct a matched pairs test to see whether investors in the New Zealand stocks got signicantly lower returns than investors in the Australian stocks. Use = 5%. (b) Test the hypotheses in (a) again, using a sign test at the 5% level. (c) Draw side-by-side boxplots of the data, and use these to determine which of your tests was most appropriate. The nal set of exercises give practice of inference for proportions.
9.40 Longer post-operative recovery times demand more nursing care and drive up health-care costs. A

study involving 327 patients in a large hospital showed that 135 out of 218 non-smokers and 84 out of 109 smokers spent more than one hour in a recovery ward after surgery. (a) Test the hypothesis that, in general, the proportion of smokers requiring more than one hour in a recovery ward is greater than the corresponding proportion of non-smokers. State the null and alternative hypothesis clearly, and use a signicance level of 1%. (b) Find the observed signicance level (p-value) of your result. 92

(c) Calculate a 95% condence interval for the dierence in the proportions of smokers and nonsmokers requiring more than one hour in recovery ward after surgery.
9.41 In 1992, 273 of the 645 road deaths in New Zealand involved drink driving as a factor. In 2002, 109

of the 404 deaths involved drink driving. Does this indicate a signicant decrease in the proportion of fatalities that involve drink driving? Test at the 5% level. (Data source: Land Transport Safety Authority.)
9.42 In a study to assess the eectiveness of using cuddly animals in television advertising, each of

100 subjects was shown a series of new television commercials for several consumer products. The subjects were randomly allocated into two groups of 50 people each. A commercial for one particular product featured a group of three small kittens and was shown to Group A. A second commercial for the same product, identical in every respect to the rst, except that the kittens had been replaced by pigs, was shown to Group B. At the end of the experiment, all subjects were asked to recall the products that were being advertised from a description of each commercial. In Group A, 37 subjects correctly recalled the product while in Group B, 23 subjects did. Do these results indicate that a group of kittens is more likely to x a product in a viewers memory than an equivalent group of pigs? Use a 5% signicance level and list any assumptions.
9.43 The number of state houses in a sample of 212 houses in New Brighton, Christchurch was ten,

while in a sample of 270 households in Tauranga, six were state houses. Is this sucient evidence to establish whether the proportion of state houses in New Brighton is the same as the proportion of state housing in Tauranga? Test at = 0.10.
9.44 In a random sample of 500 Australians, 100 were under the age of 15 while in a random sample

of 200 New Zealanders, 44 were aged below 15. Has New Zealand a younger population than Australia? (a) Calculate p , the pooled sample proportion. (b) Use p to answer the question above, testing at a level of signicance of 5%. (Data from New Zealand in Prole, 2004. Statistics New Zealand)
9.45 Of violent oenders in New Zealand prisons in 1999, the proportion of females in prison for homicide

(30.4%) was higher than the proportion of men in prison for homicide (21.6%). There were 79 women in jail for violent oences of which 24 were for homicide, while the corresponding gures for men were 1817 and 392. (a) By treating 1999 as if it were a sample from many years of prison inmate data, use this data to test whether there is any signicant dierence in the proportions of men and women in jail for violent oences who are imprisoned for homicide. Test at the 10% level of signicance. (b) Does this data mean that you should be more afraid of meeting a woman in a dark alley than a man? Explain your answer. (Data from Census of Prison Inmates 1999. Department of Corrections, 2000)
9.46 Overall, Mori suer more than non-Mori in New Zealand when it comes to being victims of a a

crime. In the New Zealand National Survey of Crime Victims 2001, (Ministry of Justice, 2003) a sample of 3568 Europeans and 947 Mori was taken (along with proportionate sized samples from a other New Zealand ethnic groups). The percentage of Mori that had been burgled in 2000 was a 6.6%, while for Europeans it was 5.2%. By rst converting the percentages into the appropriate number (round to whole numbers) and nding p , the pooled sample proportion, use this data to test whether these dierences are signicant and whether burglary follows the overall pattern. Use a 1% level of signicance.
9.47 In 2004, 52 cyclists in Northland were observed wearing helmets, while an additional 9 were observed

without helmets. A similar survey conducted on the West Coast of the South Island identied 115 out of 121 observed cyclists wearing helmets. (a) Test, using a 5% signicance level, for a dierence in the proportion of cyclists wearing helmets in these two regions. (b) Check the assumptions of this test, and comment on the validity of the test. 93

(Data source: Land Transport Safety Authority.)

9.48 The Dominion Post reported on 25 March 2004 that the proportion of babies delivered by caesarian

section at Wanganui District Health Board had increased from 18.6% in 2002 to 19.9% in 2003. The actual numbers of caesarian births were 124 out of 667 in 2002 and 135 from 678 in 2003. Was the increase in the sample proportions signicant? Solutions
9.1 (a) H0 : 1 = 2 vs Ha : 1 = 2 . Test statistic is Z = (54 48)/

72 /30 + 82 /30 = 3.0915. Rejection region is values < 2.5758 and > 2.5758, so reject H0 , i.e. the mean playing time for reggae and hip-hop CDs dier. (b) p-value = 2 P (Z > 3.09) = 2 (0.5 0.499) = 2 0.001 = 0.002. (c) 90% CI for 1 is 54 1.6449 7/ 30 = 54 2.102 = (51.9, 56.1). 90% CI for 2 is 48 1.6449 8/ 30 = 48 2.403 = (45.6, 50.4). These two condence intervals do not overlap which supports the conclusion in (a), that the mean playing times dier.
Confidence intervals for the individual population means

Reggae CDs

Hiphop CDs

44

46

48

50 mu

52

54

56

58

9.2 (a) H0 : 1 = 2 vs Ha : 1 > 2 where 1 = anxious.

Test statistic is Z = (7.925.80)/ 3.452 /48 + 2.872 /53 = 3.34. Rejection region is values > 1.645, so reject H0 . (b) p-value = P (Z > 3.34) = 0.5 0.4996 = 0.0004. (c) 90% CI for 1 2 is 7.92 5.80 1.645 0.635 = 2.12 1.045 giving (1.075, 3.165). (d) Require 1.645 3.452 /n + 2.872 /n = 0.7 giving n = 111.22, so need at least n = 112.
9.3 (a) H0 : 1 = 2 vs Ha : 1 > 2 . Test statistic is Z = (7.82 7.16)/

2.192/113 + 2.152 /85 = 0.66/0.311 = 2.121. Rejection region is values > 1.8808, so reject H0 in favour of Ha , normal patients get more sleep than those suering from anxiety. (b) p-value = P (Z > 2.12) = 0.5 0.4830 = 0.017.

9.4 (a) H0 : 1 = 2 vs Ha : 1 = 2 . Test statistic is Z = (11.7 12.5)/

4.22 /60 + 4.62 /120 = 0.8/0.6858 = 1.1665. Rejection region is values < 1.96 and > 1.96, so we do not reject H0 at the 5% level, i.e. there is no evidence of a dierence in concentration span between the two groups. (b) p-value = 2 P (Z > 1.17) = 2 (0.5 0.3790) = 2 0.121 = 0.242. (c) 95% CI for 1 2 is 0.8 1.96 0.6858 = 0.8 1.344 giving (2.144, 0.544). This is consistent with (a) as 0 is in the condence interval, so it is possible that there is no dierence in mean concentration spans. It is not sensible to construct a CI because we have accepted in (a) that there is no dierence in means. 0.422 /35 + 0.452/32 = 0.25/0.1066 = 2.34. Rejection region is values < 2.1701 and > 2.1701, so we reject H0 at the 3% level, i.e. there is a dierence between the two mean trout weights. (b) p-value = 2 P (Z > 2.34) = 2 (0.5 0.4904) = 2 0.0096 = 0.0192. (c) 95% CI for 1 2 is 0.25 1.96 0.1066 = 0.25 0.2089 = (0.041, 0.459).

9.5 (a) H0 : 1 = 2 vs Ha : 1 = 2 . Test statistic is Z = (2.67 2.42)/

9.6 (a) H0 : 1 = 2 vs Ha : 1 = 2 . Test statistic is Z = (4.2 4.8)/

1.01/48 + 0.53/34 = 0.6/0.191 = 3.135. Rejection region is values < 1.6449 and > 1.6449, so we reject H0 at the 10% level. (b) 90% CI for 1 2 is 0.6 1.6449 0.191 = 0.6 0.314 = (0.914, 0.286).

94

9.7 H0 : t = f vs Ha : t < f . Test statistic is Z = (15.3 15.81)/

Rejection region is values < 2.326, so we cannot reject H0 .

0.862 /66 + 1.72 /58 = 2.065.

9.8 H0 : 1 = 2 vs Ha : 1 = 2 . Test statistic is Z = (674 635)/

174.82/141 + 182.12 /120 = 39/22.20 = 1.756. Rejection region is values < 1.96 and > 1.96, so we do not reject H0 at the 5% level; there was no dierence in mean wage in 2002 and 2003.

9.9 (a) s2 = (9 1.72 + 12 0.62 )/(10 + 13 2) = 1.444. p

(b) H0 : 1 = 2 vs Ha : 1 > 2 where 1 = standard treatment. Test statistic is T = (4.1 2.6)/ 1.444/10 + 1.444/13 = 2.967. The t21 rejection region is values > 1.721, so reject H0 . (c) 95% CI for 1 2 is 1.5 2.08 0.5054 = 1.5 1.05 giving (0.45, 2.55). (d) Assuming n will be greater than 30, we use the z-score 1.96 for the 95% CI, so we require 1.96 1.444/n + 1.444/n = 0.05 giving n = 4437.8, so need at least n = 4438. 1.6, 1.5, 1.8, 1.6, 2.1, 1.6, 1.5. x = 1.6077 and sd = 0.1801. H0 : d = 0 vs Ha : d > 0. Test d statistic is T = 1.6077/(0.1801/ 13) = 32.1856. The t12 rejection region is values > 1.782, so reject H0 , i.e. the new treatment does decrease the duration of the seizures.

9.10 The dierences between old and new treatments for each twin family: 1.5, 1.5, 1.4, 1.6, 1.7, 1.5,

9.11 (a) Since n1 < 30 and n2 < 30, we need to assume underlying normality for both samples and a

common variance. (b) s2 = (9 0.812 + 7 0.872)/(10 + 8 2) = 0.7002. H0 : 1 = 2 vs Ha : 1 > 2 . Test statistic is p T = (4.81 4.58)/ 0.7002/10 + 0.7002/8 = 0.23/0.397 = 0.579. The t16 rejection region is values > 2.583, so we cant reject H0 at 1% level, i.e. there is no evidence of a dierence in pollution levels in the two areas. (c) p-value is greater than 10%, as the 10% value (1-sided) for t16 is 1.337 and 0.579 is to the left of this value.
9.12 (a) s2 = (23 4.132 + 23 5.142 )/46 = 21.73825. p

(b) H0 : A = B vs Ha : A < B . Test statistic is T = (6.28 8.58)/ 21.738/24 + 21.738/24 = 2.3/1.346 = 1.71. The t46 t40 rejection region is values < 1.684, so we reject H0 at 5% level. (c) min = 1.08, LQ = 5.455, median = 6.875, U Q = 9.24 and max = 14.98. IQR = 9.24 5.455 = 3.785, LQ 1.5IQR = 5.455 5.6775 = 0.2225 and U Q + 1.5IQR = 9.24 + 5.6775 = 14.9175 so 14.98 is the only outlier and the upper whisker extends out to 10.21.
Boxplot of Outlet A Sales Volume

10

12

14

sales volume ($000)

(d) Need to assume underlying normality, which is checked by looking for symmetry in the boxplot. The boxplot appears quite asymmetric so we may doubt the validity of the result in (b). Also, the sample has an outlier.
9.13 (a) s2 = (11 0.702 + 13 0.732 )/(12 + 14 2) = 0.5132. p

(b) 95% CI for 1 2 with t24 = 2.064 is (15.4 17.3) 2.064 0.5132/12 + 0.5132/14 = 1.9 0.582 = (2.482, 1.318). (c) H0 : 1 = 2 vs Ha : 1 = 2 where 1 = unaected river. 0 is not in the 95% condence interval in (b), so we would reject H0 , and conclude that the mean temperature of the rivers is dierent. (d) If we assume n will be more than 30, we can use z = 1.96 for the 95% condence interval, so n = (2 1.962 0.5132)/0.12 = 394.3081, and the sample size would need to be at least 395. This clearly exceeds 30, justifying our use of z = 1.96.

9.14 (a) For sample 1 = long trips: x1 = 10.96, s1 = 0.476, n1 = 15. Sample 2 = around town driving:

95

x2 = 9.233, s2 = 0.693, n2 = 15. s2 = (140.4762 +140.6932)/(15+152) = 0.353. H0 : 1 = 2 p vs Ha : 1 > 2 . Test statistic is T = (10.96 9.233)/ 0.353/15 + 0.353/15 = 1.727/0.217 = 7.96. The t28 rejection region is values > 1.701, so we reject H0 at 5% level. (b) Both samples appear to be skewed slightly, The around town range = 2.1, while long trip range = 1.5, these are slightly dierent, so we may doubt our conclusion in (a).
Side by Side Boxplots for Fuel Consumption

Long trips

Around town

8.5

9.0

9.5

10.0

10.5

11.0

11.5

fuel consumption (km/L)

9.15 (a) s2 = (18 14.362 + 22 19.092 )/(19 + 23 2) = 293.23. p

(b) H0 : 1 = 2 vs Ha : 1 > 2 where 1 = experimental treatment. Test statistic is T = (48.11 37.35)/ 293.23/19 + 293.23/23 = 2.03. The t40 rejection region is values > 1.684, so reject H0 . (c) 95% CI for 1 2 is 10.76 2.021 5.3086 = 10.76 10.73 giving (0.03, 21.49). (d) We would use matched pairs, take dierences in survival times for each pair, and use T = ( d )/(s/ n) tn1 where x and s are for the dierences. x

9.16 (a) Need to assume underlying normality for both groups, and that they have the same population

variance. (b) Let 1 = male author. s2 = (17 1.9972 + 17 1.652 )/(18 + 18 2) = 3.355. H0 : 1 = 2 vs p Ha : 1 = 2 . Test statistic is T = (9.11 6.55)/ 3.355/18 + 3.355/18 = 2.56/0.611 = 4.19. The t34 (t30 + t40 )/2 = (1.697 + 1.684)/2 = 1.6905, so the rejection region is values < 1.6905 and > 1.6905. The test statistic is greater than 1.6905, so we reject H0 at 10% level, i.e. we conclude that gender and appearance of an author do aect the way a reader will feel about the article. (c) 90% CI for 1 2 with t34 1.6905 (from (b)) is (9.116.55)1.6905 3.355/18 + 3.355/18 = 2.56 1.032 = (1.528, 3.592). This is an approximation as we do not have the value for t34 . (d) You could use a Mann-Whitney U test. A matched pairs t-test would not work as people would know it was the same article.
9.17 Need to do a t-test as n2 < 30, s2 = (43 1.4682 + 6 2.1612)/(44 + 7 2) = 2.463. H0 : 1 = 2 vs p

Ha : 1 < 2 . Test statistic is T = (1.9013.95)/ 2.463/44 + 2.463/7 = 2.049/0.6386 = 3.208. t49 (t40 + t60 )/2 = (1.684 + 1.671)/2 = 1.6775, so the rejection region is values < 1.6775. The test statistic is less than -1.6775, so we reject H0 at 5% level, i.e. we conclude the new habitat is better than the old habitat. n2 = 11. s2 = (15 383.34812 + 10 341.37092)/(16 + 11 2) = 134787.1. p (b) H0 : 1 = 2 vs Ha : 1 = 2 . Test statistic is T = (1923.42090.9)/ 134787.1(1/16 + 1/11) = 167.5/143.7970 = 1.165. The t25 rejection region is values < 2.060 and > 2.060. The test statistic is not in the rejection region, so we do not reject H0 at 5% level, i.e. there could be no dierence in mean weight of male and female possums. (c) H0 : population 1 is identical to population 2 vs Ha : populations 1 and 2 are not identical. 96

9.18 (a) 1 = females : x1 = 1923.438, s1 = 383.3481, n1 = 16. 2 = males : x2 = 2090.909, s2 = 341.3709,

Ordering and ranking the two groups we get: Females Males rank F rank M Females Males rank F rank M Females Males rank F rank M 1000 1400 1650 1700 1 2 3 5.5 1750 1750 8 8 1800 1800 1800 1850 1850

4 5.5 8 10.5 10.5 1900 1925 1950 2000 2000 2200 2200 2250 2300 1925 2275 12 13.5 15 16.5 16.5 18.5 18.5 20 22.5 13.5 21 2650 2300 2350 2550 2650 26.5 22.5 24 25 26.5

Summing the ranks: S1 = 207 and S2 = 171. U1 = 207 1617 = 207 136 = 71 and U2 = 2 171 1112 = 161 66 = 105. The test statistic is U = min(71, 105) = 71. The rejection region 2 is values 47, the test statistic is not in the rejection region so we do not reject H0 that the populations are identical, i.e. we conclude that there is no dierence between weights of male and female possums. (d) Females: LQ = 1775, median= 1937.5 and U Q = 2200. Males: LQ = 1800, median= 1925 and U Q = 2350. The boxplots appear asymmetric so the normality required by the t-test is unlikely to hold. The variances are probably not the same as boxplots have very dierent spread. The Mann-Whitney U -test seems more appropriate.
Side by Side Boxplots of Possum Weights

Females 1000

Males

1500

2000

2500

weight (grams)

9.19 H0 : 1 = 2 vs Ha : 1 > 2 where 1 = control group. s2 = (11 2.0652 + 11 1.7822)/(12 + 12 p

2) = 3.72. Test statistic is T = (28.58 27.42)/ 3.72/12 + 3.72/12 = 1.473. The t22 rejection region is values > 1.321, so reject H0 .

2 2 2 2 9.20 H0 : 1 = 2 vs Ha : 1 = 2 . F = 0.872 /0.812 = 1.154 which is F (7, 9). = 0.10 and this is

a 2-sided test, so the rejection region from the 5% table is values > 3.6767. We cannot reject H0 and conclude there is no evidence to suggest a dierence in the two variances.
2 2 2 2 9.21 H0 : 1 = 2 vs Ha : 1 = 2 . F = 1.72 /0.62 = 8.028 which is F (9, 12). The rejection region from

the 2 1 % table is values > 3.4358. The test statistic is in the rejection region so we reject H0 . This 2 dierence in variances means we doubt our results in Exercise 9.10.
2 2 2 2 9.22 H0 : 1 = 2 vs Ha : 1 = 2 . F = 0.732 /0.72 = 1.087 which is F (13, 11). The rejection region 1 from the 2 2 % table is values > 3.4296 (use F (12, 11) as F (13, 11) not in tables). We cannot reject

97

H0 and conclude there is no evidence to suggest a dierence in the two variances.

2 2 2 2 9.23 H0 : 1 = 2 vs Ha : 1 = 2 . F = 0.6932/0.4762 = 2.12 which is F (14, 14) F (15, 14). The

rejection region from the 2 1 % table is values > 2.9493. The test statistic is not in the rejection 2 region so we cant reject H0 and conclude there is no evidence to suggest a dierence in the two variances. region from the 5% table is values > 2.8450. The test statistic is not in the rejection region so we cant reject H0 and conclude there is no evidence to suggest a dierence in the two variances.

2 2 2 2 9.24 H0 : 1 = 2 vs Ha : 1 > 2 . F = 383.34812/341.37092 = 1.261 which is F (15, 10). The rejection

9.25 (a) The data are distributed asymmetrically.

Side by Side Boxplots of Psychological Test Scores

Test I

Test II

90

95

100

105

110

115

120

weight (grams)

(b) H0 : MI = MII vs Ha : MI = MII . Test I 89 89 90 91 101 105 112 89 94 99 99 104 113 121 Test II rank I 2 2 4 5 9 11 12 rank II 2 6 7.5 7.5 10 13 14 Summing the ranks: SI = 45 and SII = 60. UI = 45 78 = 45 28 = 17 and UII = 60 78 = 2 2 60 28 = 32. The test statistic is U = min(17, 32) = 17. The rejection region is values 8, the test statistic is not in the rejection region so we do not reject H0 that the populations are identical. (c) This would make no dierence as they would still be ranked 13th and 14th respectively. (d) The dierences between Test I scores and Test II scores: 12, 0, 9, 6, 14, 3, 10, with xd = 6 and sd = 7.234. H0 : d = 0 vs Ha : d = 0. Test statistic is T = 6/(7.234/ 7) = 2.194. The t6 rejection region is values < 2.447 and > 2.447, the test statistic is not in the rejection region, so we cant reject H0 . Alternatively, a sign test has X = 1 out of six (the zero is deleted from the sample), with a p-value = 2 P (X 1) = 2 0.1094 > 5% conrming the conclusion of the t-test.
9.26 (a) H0 : M1 = M2 vs Ha : M1 = M2 .

Group 1 7 8 9 11 12 13 13 20 Group 2 3 4 5 6 6 7 8 10 11 12 rank 1 6.5 8.5 10 12.5 14.5 16 17 18 1 2 3 4.5 4.5 6.5 8.5 11 12.5 14.5 rank 2 Summing the ranks: S1 = 103 and S2 = 68. U1 = 103 8 9/2 = 103 36 = 67 and U2 = 68 10 11/2 = 68 55 = 13. The test statistic is U = min(67, 13) = 13. The rejection region is values 17, the test statistic is in the rejection region so we reject H0 that the populations are 98

the same. (b) This would make no dierence as it would still be ranked 18th and so the test statistic is not changed.
9.27 H0 : M1 = M2 vs Ha : M1 = M2 .

Variety Variety rank A rank B Variety Variety rank A rank B

A 85.2 85.6 85.7 87.4 89.1 B 82.9 86 87.7 87.8 88.5 2 3 4 6 10 1 5 7 8 9 A 90.3 91.5 91.6 92.2 B 89.8 94.0 96.1 100.2 102.0 12 13 14 15 11 16 17 18 19

Summing the ranks: SA = 79 and SB = 111. UA = 79 9 10/2 = 79 45 = 34 and UB = 111 10 11/2 = 111 55 = 56. The test statistic is U = min(34, 56) = 34. The rejection region is values 20, the test statistic is not in the rejection region so we do not reject H0 that the populations are identical.
9.28 1 = safety articles group and 2 = control group. H0 : M1 = M2 vs Ha : M1 < M2 .

Safety 4 7 10 11 17 18 19 21 Control 6 9 12 13 13 16 rank 1 1 3 5 6 11 12 13 14 rank 2 2 4 7 8.5 8.5 10 Summing the ranks: S1 = 65 and S2 = 40. U1 = 6589/2 = 6536 = 29 and U2 = 4067/2 = 40 21 = 19. The test statistic is taken from the lower population in the alternative hypothesis: U = U1 = 29. The rejection region is values 8, the test statistic is not in the rejection region so we do not reject H0 that the populations are identical.
9.29 1 = Lower Hutt and 2 = Waitakare. H0 : M1 = M2 vs Ha : M1 = M2 .

Lower Hutt Waitakare rank 1 rank 2

4 1

7 2

9 10 3 4

12 5

13 7

13 13 7 7 9.5 9.5 11 12 14 14 16 21

Summing the ranks: S1 = 25 and S2 = 53. U1 = 25 6 7/2 = 4 and U2 = 53 6 7/2 = 32. The test statistic is U = min(4, 32) = 4. Rejection region is values 5 so reject H0 .
9.30 Let 1 = Original Location. The Boat Bay Location ranks are 28, 31, 32.5, 43, 45, 49, 51. S2 = 279.5

and U2 = 279.5 7 8/2 = 279.5 28 = 251.5. Similarly S1 = 1046.5 and U1 = 1046.5 44 45/2 = 1046.5 990 = 56.5. The test statistic is U = min(251.5, 56.5) = 56.5. Z = (U n12n2 )/ n1 n2 (n1 + n2 + 1)/12 = (56.5 447 )/ 44 7 (44 + 7 + 1)/12 = 97.5/36.533 = 2 2.6688. At the 1% level of signicance, rejection region is values < 2.5758 so we reject H0 . The normal approximation may not be very good as n2 < 25.

99

9.31 (a)

Side by Side Boxplots of Residential Apartment Prices

Wellington

Auckland

500

1000

1500

price ($000)

(b) Let 1 = Wellington. H0 : M1 = M2 vs Ha : M1 < M2 . Wellington 290 370 385 460 92 100 255 310 360 360 Auckland rank 1 4 8 9 10 rank 2 1 2 3 5 6.5 6.5 Wellington 475 493 570 600 655 1700 490 498 670.5 1700 Auckland rank 1 11 13 15 16 17 19.5 rank 2 12 14 18 19.5 Summing the ranks: S1 = 122.5 and S2 = 87.5. U1 = 122.5 10 11/2 = 122.5 55 = 67.5 and U2 = 87.5 10 11/2 = 87.5 55 = 32.5. The test statistic is the U from the lower population which is Wellington, so U = U1 = 67.5. The rejection region is values 23, the test statistic is not in the rejection region so we do not reject H0 that the populations are identical at the 5% level of signicance.
9.32 Let 1 = Pasture and 2 = Replanted forest. The sum of the ranks are: S1 = 656 and S2 = 1424.

U1 = 656 (32 33)/2 = 656 528 = 128 and U2 = 1424 (32 33)/2 = 1424 528 = 896. The test statistic is U = min(128, 896) = 128. The rejection region is values 321, the test statistic is in the rejection region so we reject H0 in favour of diering populations. Using the normal approximation Z = (U n12n2 )/ n1 n2 (n1 + n2 + 1)/12 = (128 3232 )/ 32 32 (32 + 32 + 1)/12 = 2 384/74.476 = 5.156. The rejection region is values < 2.5758 at the 1% level of signicance, so we reject H0 using the normal approximation.
9.33 The dierences between low and high altitudes (low high) are: 9, 5, 4, 4, 11, with xd = 6.667 7

and sd = 2.875. H0 : d = 0 vs Ha : d > 0. Test statistic is T = 6.667/(2.875/ 6) = 5.68. The t5 rejection region is values > 2.015, the test statistic is in the rejection region, so we reject H0 and support the hypothesis that number of trees per quadrat does decrease.

9.34 Dierences (unprotected protected) are: 1, 2, 2, 2, 0, 2, 2, 3, 1 with x = 1.2 and s = 1.398. 1,

H0 : d = 0 vs Ha : d > 0. Test statistic is T = 1.2/(1.398/ 10) = 2.71 which is t9 . Rejection region is values > 1.383 so reject H0 .

9.35 The dierences between arrivals in (2001 2002) are: 224, 445, 826, 310, 234 with x = d

283.8 and sd = 411.8922. H0 : d = 0 vs Ha : d > 0. Test statistic is T = 283.8/(411.8922/ 5) = 1.541. The t4 rejection region is values > 2.776, the test statistic is not in the rejection region, so we cant reject H0 , i.e. there is no evidence that the terrorist attacks reduced visitor numbers. In fact, the numbers increased.

100

9.36 (a) The samples are not independent, they are two measurements of the same gecko.

(b) The dierences between Vol1 and Vol2 (Vol1 Vol2) are: 0.018, 0.003, 0.021, 0.020, 0.029, 0.009, 0.027, 0.006, 0.001, 0.019, 0.003, 0.080, 0.001, 0.003, 0.006, 0.001, 0.052, 0.020, 0.005, 0.007 with xd = 0.014 and sd = 0.022. H0 : d = 0 vs Ha : d > 0. Test statistic is T = 0.014/(0.022/ 20) = 2.846. The t19 rejection region is values > 1.729, the test statistic is in the rejection region, so we reject H0 , i.e. there is evidence that the animals settle to a lower rate of oxygen in the second test. (c) H0 : M = 0 vs Ha : M > 0. n = 20. Comparing with m0 = 0 we have 5 below and 15 above m0 . Test statistic is X = 15. If H0 true X Bin(20, 0.5) and p-value of this result is P (X 15) = 0.0207 < 5% so we reject H0 .
9.37 The dierence between wives and husbands (wives husbands) are: 7, 2, 13, 3, 1, 1, 3, 11,

15, 15, 6, 25, 5, 13, 3. H0 : M = 0 vs Ha : M = 0. n = 15. Comparing with m0 = 0, there are 4 below and 11 above m0 . Test statistic is X = min(4, 11) = 4. If H0 true X Bin(15, 0.5) and p-value of this result is 2 P (X 4) = 2 0.0592 = 0.1184 > 5% so we do not reject H0 , i.e. there is no evidence of a dierence between wives and husbands ratings.

9.38 (a) The dierence between Questions D and F (D F) are: 2, 2, 0, 1, 0, 0, 2, 1, 3, 0.

H0 : M = 0 vs Ha : M = 0. Discarding the data where the dierences are equal to m0 = 0, n = 6 and there are 4 below and 2 above m0 . Test statistic is X = min(4, 2) = 2. If H0 true X Bin(6, 0.5) and p-value of this result is 2 P (X 2) = 2 0.3437 = 0.6874 > 5% so we do not reject H0 , i.e. there is no dierence between the scores for questions D and F. (b) The samples are not independent, they are two measurements taken from the same person. 0.10, 0.04, 0.11, 0.04, 0.18, 0.15, 0.06, 0.14, 0.12, 0.08, 0.05 with xd 0.0513 and = sd = 0.1059. H0 : d = 0 vs Ha : d < 0. Test statistic is T = 0.0513/(0.1059/ 15) = 1.876. The t14 rejection region is values < 1.761, the test statistic is in the rejection region, so we reject H0 , i.e. New Zealand investors did get signicantly lower returns than investors in Australia. (b) H0 : M = 0 vs Ha : M < 0. n = 15. Comparing with m0 = 0 there are 11 below and 4 above m0 . Test statistic is X = 4. If H0 true X Bin(15, 0.5) and p-value of this result is P (X 4) = 0.0592 > 5% so we do not reject H0 , i.e. there is no dierence in returns. (c) The sample is symmetric, with no outliers, so the t-test should be valid.
Boxplot of Differences in Monthly NZSX and ASX Returns

9.39 (a) The dierence between NZSX10 and ASX (NZSX10 ASX) are: 0.06, 0.25, 0.06, 0.01,

0.2

0.1

0.0

0.1

return (%)

9.40 (a) H0 : p1 = p2 against Ha : p1 < p2 where 1 = non-smokers. p = 219/327 = 0.67, p1 = 0.62,

p2 = 0.77. Standard error is 0.67 0.33 (1/218 + 1/109) = 0.055. Test statistic is Z = (0.62 0.77)/0.055 = 2.73. Rejection region is values < 2.3263. Z lies in the rejection region so reject H0 . (b) p-value = P (Z < 2.73) = 0.5 0.4968 = 0.0032. (c) 95% condence interval is (0.62 0.77) 1.96 0.62 0.38/218 + 0.77 0.23/109 = 0.15 0.102 = (0.252, 0.048).
9.41 H0 : p1 = p2 against Ha : p1 > p2 where 1 = fatalities in 1992.

p = 382/1049 = 0.364, p1 = 0.423, p2 = 0.270. Standard error is 0.364 0.636 (1/645 + 1/404) = 0.0305. Test statistic is Z = (0.423 0.270)/0.0305 = 5.016. Rejection region is values > 1.6449. Z lies in the rejection region so reject H0 , i.e. there has been a signicant decrease in the proportion of fatalities that involve drink driving. p1 = 37/50 = 0.74, p2 = 23/50 = 0.46. Standard error is 101 p = 60/100 = 0.60, 0.6 0.4 (1/50 + 1/50) = 0.098.

9.42 H0 : p1 = p2 against Ha : p1 > p2 where 1 = group shown kittens.

Test statistic is Z = (0.74 0.46)/0.098 = 2.86. Rejection region is values > 1.6449. Z lies in the rejection region so reject H0 at 5% level.
9.43 H0 : p1 = p2 against Ha : p1 = p2 where 1 = households in New Brighton. p = 16/482 = 0.0332,

p1 = 10/212 = 0.0472, p2 = 6/270 = 0.0222. Standard error is 0.0332 0.9668(1/212 + 1/270) = 0.0164. Test statistic is Z = (0.04720.0222)/0.0164 = 1.524. Rejection region is values < 1.6449 and > 1.6449. Z does not lie in the rejection region so we cannot reject H0 at 10% level.
9.44 (a) p = 144/700 = 0.206.

(b) p1 = 0.2, p2 = 0.22 where 1 = Australia. H0 : p1 = p2 against Ha : p1 < p2 . Standard error is 0.206 0.794 (1/500 + 1/200) = 0.034. Test statistic is Z = (0.2 0.22)/0.034 = 0.59. Rejection region is values < 1.645. Z does not lie in rejection region so we do not reject H0 .
9.45 (a) H0 : pF = pM against Ha : pF = pM . pF = 0.304, pM = 0.216 and p = 416/1896 = 0.22. Stan

dard error is 0.22 0.78(1/79 + 1/1817) = 0.0476. Test statistic is Z = (0.304 0.216)/0.0476 = 1.85. Rejection region is values < 1.6449 and > 1.6449. Z lies in the rejection region so we reject H0 at 10% level. (b) We rejected H0 in (a), so there is a dierence in proportions, and we have evidence at the 10% signicance level to fear a woman more than a man in a dark alley.
9.46 p1 = 0.066, p2 = 0.052 where 1 = Mori. and p = (947 0.066 + 3568 0.052)/(947 + 3568) = a

0.0549. H0 : p1 = p2 against Ha : p1 > p2 . Standard error is 0.0549 0.9451(1/947 + 1/3568) = 0.0083. Test statistic is Z = (0.066 0.052)/0.0083 = 1.687. Rejection region is values > 2.3263. Z does not lie in the rejection region so we cannot reject H0 at 1% level of signicance, i.e. we do not have enough evidence to show burglary follows the overall pattern.

9.47 (a) H0 : p1 = p2 against Ha : p1 = p2 , where 1 = Northland. p1 = 52/61 = 0.852, p2 = 115/121 =

0.950 and p = 167/182 = 0.918. Standard error is 0.918 0.082 (1/61 + 1/121) = 0.0431. Test statistic is Z = (0.852 0.950)/0.0431 = 2.274. At the 5% level of signicance, the rejection region is values < 1.96 and > 1.96 and the test statistic lies in the rejection region so we reject H0 . (b) Both n1 and n2 are larger than 30, so the test should be valid.
9.48 H0 : p1 = p2 against Ha : p1 < p2 , where 1 = babies delivered in 2002 . p1 = 0.186, p2 = 0.199

and p = 259/1345 = 0.193. Standard error is 0.193 0.807 (1/667 + 1/678) = 0.0215. Test statistic is Z = (0.186 0.199)/0.0215 = 0.605. At the 5% level of signicance, the rejection region is values < 1.6449, the test statistic does not lie in the rejection region so we cannot reject H0 , i.e. the increase in births by caesarian were not signicant.

102

Chapter 10
Exercises The rst set of problems are for the ANOVA test.
10.1 In an investigation into the literacy of young adolescent males one critical variable is thought to be

whether or not the young males have any hearing damage. A sample of fty Year 11 male students had their hearing tested and then undertook a literacy test with maximum score = 50. The results are shown in the table below:
Hearing Very damaged 12 15 15 15 15 16 17 20 21 22 ni Ti xi si 11 190 17.27 3.41 22 Below average 17 17 19 19 19 19 20 20 20 20 19 398 20.95 2.72 20 21 22 22 23 23 24 26 27 Normal 26 28 28 29 29 29 29 29 30 30 20 609 30.45 2.21 31 31 31 32 32 32 32 32 33 36 n = 50 T = 1197 x = 23.94

(a) Draw three side-by-side boxplots of this data. (b) List the assumptions underlying analysis of variance. Do the boxplots in (a) support these assumptions or not? (c) Draw up an analysis of variance table for this data and test whether the observed dierences in literacy scores are signicant at the 5% level. State the null and alternative hypotheses clearly. (d) Find 95% condence intervals for the mean literacy scores for each of these three groups. Display on a number line and comment on what they suggest. (e) What is the best point estimate of the literacy score for Year 11 males with below average hearing? Why? What would be your estimate of the mean literacy score for Year 11 females with below average hearing and why?
10.2 Groups of New Zealand Year 12 students were randomly selected from four location types: rural

areas, rural towns, provincial towns and cities and scored on a vocational aptitude test. The scores are as follows:
Rural 4 12 44 9 17 ni xi Ti 5 17.2 86 Rural towns 30 41 13 26 4 27.5 110 Provincial towns 31 49 22 56 19 5 35.4 177 Cities 19 66 65 46 89 5 57 285

(a) Draw up an ANOVA table for this data. (b) Test whether the observed dierences in the average vocational aptitude test scores are significant at the 5% level of signicance. State the null and alternative hypotheses clearly dening any terms you use. 103

(c) Find 95% half condence intervals for the mean vocational aptitude test scores for each of these four groups and display on a number line. Comment on what this indicates. (d) Find a 95% condence interval for the dierence between the mean vocational aptitude test scores for the groups from provincial towns and cities. Test the claim that there is no dierence in the mean vocational aptitude test scores for these two groups. (e) What are the best point estimates for the mean vocational aptitude test score for Year 12 students in rural areas and also for female Year 12 students from cities? Justify your answer. (f) Suggest two factors, other than type of location, which might aect these scores.
10.3 There is considerable controversy surrounding the merits of various techniques for teaching reading

in New Zealand. Three groups of new entrant students to Year 1 who all had English as a rst language and came from the same socio-economic background were taught in one of three ways whole word, phonics, and combination of whole word and phonics over a six-month period with the same total instruction time in each case. After six months each student was given a simple reading test and scored for comprehension. The marks on this test (/100) are given below: phonics 59 78 67 62 83 76 n1 = 6 x1 = 70.83 s1 = 9.58 whole word 75 69 83 81 72 79 90 n2 = 7 x2 = 78.43 s2 = 7.11 combination 94 89 80 88

n3 = 4 x3 = 87.75 s3 = 5.80

(a) Display side-by-side dotplots of this data. Based on this display does it appear that the null hypothesis is true? Why or why not? (b) Fill in the missing entries in the ANOVA table below:
Source Between groups Within groups Total 16 Df Sum of squares 689.6436 1552.9412 Mean square

(c) Use the table in (b) to test whether the observed dierences in reading progress are signicant at the 5% level. State the null and alternative hypotheses clearly, dening any terms you use. (d) Find 95% half condence intervals for the mean reading score in each of the three groups. Display on a number line. Comment. (e) Find a 95% condence interval for the dierence between the mean reading score for children taught by the phonics and whole word methods. Test the claim that there is no dierence in the mean reading score for these two groups. (f) What is the best point estimate of the mean reading score for children taught by the combination method? Justify your answer. (g) Draw up a table of the residuals of this data set. Use your residuals to check the assumption of underlying normality. What can you conclude about the validity of your ANOVA?
10.4 New Zealand native frogs live a long time (up to about 30 years), and continue to grow throughout

their lives. In 1984/5, 100 frogs (Leiopelma pakeka) were translocated from two study grids on Maud Island to a new habitat at Boat Bay. The weight gains (over the 12 years until 1997) of the frogs shifted were compared with those of the frogs left behind, to see whether the new habitat was as good as, or better than, the old. The following data set shows the weight gain (in grams, over the 12 years) of frogs found and 104

weighed both in 1984/5 and 1997. Fourteen frogs had been left on Grid 1, 30 on Grid 2, and seven had been moved to Boat Bay in 1984/5.
Maud Island 1.67 0.25 0.43 2.33 2.85 2.22 1.07 0.10 0.85 2.20 x1 = 1.646 Grid 1 0.50 2.72 1.65 4.20 s1 = 1.187 Maud Island 1.27 2.93 0.80 0.58 -0.30 3.68 -1.70 1.66 3.50 1.27 x2 = 2.02 Grid 2 1.48 2.20 5.97 4.18 2.93 2.40 2.55 3.15 0.00 4.10 s2 = 1.587 1.10 3.07 3.15 1.20 1.80 3.25 1.50 1.97 1.18 -0.27 Boat Bay 2.55 3.80 2.30 4.45 8.50 3.60 2.45 x3 = 3.95 s3 = 2.161

(a) Draw a line graph of the means of these groups. What does it suggest? (b) Perform an analysis of variance on this data to test whether or not the mean weight gain is the same, irrespective of location. (c) Find a 95% condence interval for the dierence in mean weight gain between the Boat Bay frogs and those from Grid 2, using an approximate value for the t-score. Why does the t-score have to be approximate? (d) Is there any evidence that the mean weight gains in Boat Bay and Grid 2 are signicantly dierent? Explain your answer. (Data from Bell, Pledger and Dewhurst (2004). The fate of a population of the endemic frog Leiopelma pakeka (Anura: Leiopelmatidae) translocated to restored habitat on Maud Island, New Zealand. New Zealand Journal of Zoology 31:123131.)
10.5 The data on the New Zealand spotted skink in Exercise 3.18 seem to roughly fulll the assumptions

behind an analysis of variance and while the data is not continuous, we can treat it as if it were continuous but recorded discretely, if we convert it to average count per day. Then, a sample of 66 observations from the data becomes:
Pasture Replanted forest Tussock 0.4 1.1 1.5 1.8 1.4 0.7 0.3 0.3 2.4 0.6 2.3 1.2 0.0 0.1 3.1 1.2 1.5 2.9 0.2 0.1 0.8 1.6 1.4 1.0 0.2 0.4 0.4 1.1 0.5 1.1 0.1 0.8 1.8 0.8 1.6 1.1 0.4 0.5 1.4 1.3 1.0 1.0 0.1 1.4 3.3 1.2 1.6 1.0 0.2 0.6 1.1 1.1 1.4 0.6 0.5 0.8 1.6 0.8 1.0 1.3 0.6 0.6 2.6 0.5 1.7 1.2

(a) Do an analysis of variance on this data to test whether the population mean numbers of skinks caught per day is the same for each of the three habitats. (b) Construct a 95% condence interval for the dierence between the mean count per day for the group in pasture and that in replanted forest.
10.6 Data from the baby tuatara rst referred to in Exercise 2.6 is shown below. Remember that the

eggs were incubated in the lab at 18, 21 or 22 degrees Celsius. After hatching, the young tuatara had their development monitored. The measurement is SVL = snout-vent length (mm) at age 10 months. 18 C 21 C 22 C 80 91 81 82 84 83 81 83 84 82 90 87 73 83 76 85 87 84 81 89 88 83 85 83 80 82 91 82 84 84

(a) Do an analysis of variance on this data to test whether or not the egg incubation temperature has an eect on the mean SVL at age 10 months. Use a 5% level of signicance. (b) Calculate the residual for each observation and plot them in a boxplot. What can you conclude about the validity of the ANOVA?
10.7 The Kapiti Island Marine Reserve, was established in 1992. Within the reserve there is no shing,

while outside it, the legal minimum length for shing blue cod is 330mm. The data below were collected from four marine sites in October 2003, and are the lengths (mm) of blue cod (Parapercis colias). Sites 1 and 3 are within the reserve, and the other two are outside. 105

Site 1 in reserve Site 2 Site 3 in reserve Site 4

285 280 305 300 320 280

315 270 340 380 405 260

360 255 310 380 300 295

290 290 320 350 380 280

420 300 270 335 270

310 325 300 335 305

290 280

340

370 350

280

(a) Draw up a boxplot for each site and present them side by side. What do the plots suggest about the four sites and the suitability of using ANOVA on the data? (b) Perform an analysis of variance on the data at the 1% level of signicance. What is your conclusion? (c) Give the best estimate for the mean blue cod length in Site 3. Justify your answer. (Data collected by Carl Struthers.)
10.8 It has been suggested that the length of sentence a convicted criminal receives is related to ethnicity.

In an investigation of this claim, data was collected on 44 oenders. The oenders were all male, aged between 20 and 25, and the data relates to their second burglary conviction. The lengths of their sentences (in months) recorded according to the ethnicity of the oender, are:
Group European Pacic Islands Mori a Other 12 18 18 24 36 18 18 12 24 24 36 12 12 18 16 36 24 16 12 12 24 36 36 18 Data 12 18 20 24 24 18 18 36 36 12 18 12 30 44 18 24 24 36 18 36 n 16 9 13 6 x 16.5 23.33 32.0 16.67 s 6.00 6.4031 6.9282 4.5019

(a) Display the four group means on a graph and join with straight lines. What does this graph suggest? (b) The following ANOVA table was drawn up:
Source Between groups Within groups Total 43 df SS 1545.33 3505.00 MS

Calculate the missing entries. (c) Test whether the observed dierences in average length of sentence are signicant at the 5% level of signicance. (d) Find 90% condence intervals for the mean length of sentence for each of these four groups. (e) Construct a 95% condence interval for the dierence in mean sentence length for the Pacic Island and Mori groups. Test the claim that there is no dierence in mean sentence length a for these two groups.
10.9 The following data represents the areas of a particular moss (in cm2 ) in randomly selected small

grids on four sites on the south east coast of Australia. Two sites (A and B) are exposed to the wind while the other two are sheltered. Site D, while sheltered, is drier than site C.
Site A 7 2 4 x 4.3 Site B 6 4 6 5.3 Site C 8 4 5 5.6 Site D 7 4 2 5 4.5

106

(a) State the null and alternative hypotheses needed in an analysis of variance of this data. (b) Complete the following ANOVA table:
Source Between groups Within groups Total df SS 37.00 40.92 MS

(c) Use the table in (b) to test, at a 1% level of signicance, whether the mean area of this moss is the same at all four sites.
10.10 The following data represents water temperature ( C) of samples taken at ve dierent locations

above and below the waste outlet from a wood processing plant into a river. Five observations are recorded at each location.
Group A: 5km above outlet B: at outlet C: 5km below outlet D: 10km below outlet E: 25km below outlet 7 19 14 12 11 7 25 18 17 7 Data 15 22 18 12 10 11 19 19 18 11 9 23 19 18 15 x 9.8 21.6 17.6 15.4 10.8

Perform an analysis of variance on this data stating carefully your hypotheses and conclusion. Test at the 5% level of signicance. The second set of exercises are for the Kruskal-Wallis test.
10.11 In the study of a nutritional disorder that causes death if left untreated, autopsy results can give us

the liver weight of victims expressed as a percentage of body weight. The values of this percentage for deceased suerers in four ethnic groups are as follows:
Group A 3.42 3.96 3.87 4.19 3.58 3.37 3.84 Group B 3.17 3.63 3.38 3.47 3.39 3.41 3.55 3.44 Group C 3.34 3.72 3.81 3.66 3.55 3.51 Group D 3.64 3.93 3.77 4.18 4.21 3.88 3.96 3.91

Test for ethnic group dierences using the Kruskal-Wallis test and = 0.01.
10.12 Using a subsample of the raw skink data of Exercise 3.18, the counts of skinks per trap totalled

over a ten-day period in each habitat are as follows:

Pasture Replanted forest Tussock 4 2 15 11 14 14 3 5 24 16 23 10 0 0 31 20 15 7 2 11 8 1 14 10 2 5 4 17 5 8 1 6 18 12 16 12 14 8 14 27 10 19 1 6 33 26 16 17

Test for dierences in skink numbers for the three habitats with a Kruskal-Wallis test, using a 5% level of signicance.

107

10.13 Test the null hypothesis that three dierent brands of electric jugs have equal median life against

the appropriate alternative, where the lives of several jugs randomly selected, were found to be as below (lifetimes are in months and all brands have a 5-year guarantee):
Brand A 73 64 67 62 70 Brand B 84 80 81 77 Brand C 82 79 71 75

10.14 The table below gives sweat chloride (mEq/L) for carriers of the cystic brosis gene and for

non-carrier controls. Male carrier Female carrier Male control Female control 66 18 25 48 22 70 15 35 9 41 69 89 38 91 57 33 17 54 31 11 42 12 48 67 94 31 52 19 48 24 29 77 57 31 56

Test the hypothesis that the median sweat chloride concentration is the same, irrespective of gender and whether or not one carries the cystic brosis gene, using a Kruskal-Wallis test.
10.15 Using the data from Exercise 10.3, retest using a Kruskal-Wallis test. 10.16 Using the data in Exercise 10.8, retest whether median length of sentence is the same regardless

of ethnicity, using the Kruskal-Wallis test. Is the Kruskal-Wallis test likely to be more reliable than ANOVA in this case, and why?
10.17 Using the data from Exercise 10.9, retest using a Kruskal-Wallis test.

Solutions
10.1 (a)
Side by Side Boxplots for Literacy levels

very damaged

Below average

Normal

15

20

25

30

35

test score (out of 50)

(b) Assumptions: random samples, equal population variances and underlying normality of the data. The boxplot for normal hearing looks symmetric, but the boxplots for the other groups look asymmetric, so we may doubt the normality assumption for these two groups. Spread looks roughly the same. (c)

108

Source Between groups Within groups Total

df 2 47 49

SS 1506.74 342.08 1848.82

MS 753.37 7.278

F 103.5113

H0 : all three population group means are equal, vs Ha : at least one is dierent. The test statistic is F = 103.5113 and 5% rejection region is values > F (2, 47) (F (2, 40) + F (2, 60))/2 = 3.191. We clearly reject H0 , concluding at least one mean literacy score is dierent. the (d) sp = M SE = 7.278 = 2.698. t47 (t40 +t60 )/2 = 2.0105 so we will use this in condence intervals as t47 is not in the tables. A 95% CI of the form xi 2.0105 2.698/ ni . For very is damaged hearing, we get 17.27 2.0105 2.698/ 11 = 17.27 1.63 = (15.64, 18.90), below average hearing gives 20.951.244 = (19.71, 22.19) and normal hearing gives 30.451.2125 = (29.24, 31.66). The condence intervals overlap somewhat, but the normal hearing do get higher scores than the other two groups. Half-condence intervals show separation between normal and others.
Confidence intervals for the individual population means

Very damaged

Below average

Normal

10

15

20 mu

25

30

35

40

(e) The best point estimate of the mean is the sample estimate x2 = 20.95 as we rejected H0 in part (c). This data is for males only, so probably no estimate is sensible. Using the assumption that males and females are the same, you could use 20.95.
10.2 (a)

Source Between groups Within groups Total

df 3 15 18

SS 4227.42 5199 9426.42

MS 1409.14 346.6

F 4.066

(b) H0 : all four population group means are equal, vs Ha : at least one is dierent. The test statistic is F = 4.066 and rejection region is values > F (3, 15) = 3.2874. We reject H0 , and conclude at least one group mean is dierent. (c) sp = M SE = 346.6 = 18.617. A half condence interval is of the form xi 18.617/ ni . Ru ral: 17.2 18.495/ 5 = 17.2 8.326 = (8.874, 25.526), rural towns: 27.5 9.309 = (18.191, 36.809), provincial towns: 35.4 8.326 = (27.074, 43.726), and cities: 57 8.326 = (48.674, 65.326). There is no common value of which passes through all intervals, which is consistent with the result of the ANOVA test. The average for cities is much higher than the other group means, and there may be a dierence between rural scores and those for provincial towns.
Confidence intervals for the individual population means
Rural Rural towns Provincial towns Cities

10

20

30 mu

40

50

60

70

(d) (35.4 57) 2.131 18.617 1/5 + 1/5 = 21.6 25.0913 = (46.691, 3.491). H0 : the means from provincial towns and cities are the same vs Ha : they are dierent. 0 is in the the 95% condence interval so we cannot reject H0 . (e) The best point estimates are the sample means, i.e. x = 17.2 for rural areas. For females in the city we have no specic data. Assuming they are similar to the males, we could use the males average for the cities x = 57. 109

(f) Examples include gender, ethnicity and socio-economic status.

10.3 (a) Based on the dotplots, it appears that the combination group have higher scores than the other

groups, and the phonics scores are slightly lower.

Reading Test Scores for Three Groups With Different Training
Combo Phonics

60

65

70

75 Test score (/20)

80

85

90

95

(b)

Source Between groups Within groups Total

df 2 14 16

SS 689.6436 863.2976 1552.941

MS 344.8218 61.6641

F 5.592

(c) H0 : all three population group means are equal, vs Ha : at least one is dierent. The test statistic is F = 5.592. The rejection region is values > F (2, 14) = 3.7389, so we reject H0 . (d) 95% half CIs all have form xi sp / ni . For the phonics group the CI is (67.62, 74.04), for whole word it is (75.46, 81.4) and for combination group it is (83.82, 91.68). Each CI is clearly separated from the others with no overlap so we can conclude that all the i dier. (e) (16.97, 1.77). Zero lies inside this CI so cannot reject that 1 = 2 . (f) H0 was rejected so the best point estimate is x3 = 87.75. (g) The residuals are xij xi : 11.83, 7.17, 3.83, 8.83, 12.17, 5.17, 3.43, 9.43, 4.57, 2.57, 6.43, 0.57, 11.57, 6.25, 1.25, 7.75, 0.25. min = 11.83, LQ = 6.43, median = 0.57, U Q = 5.17 and max = 12.17. IQR = 5.17 6.43 = 11.6, LQ 1.5IQR = 6.43 17.4 = 23.83 and U Q + 1.5IQR = 5.17 + 17.4 = 22.57, there are no values less than 23.83 or more than 22.57, so there are no outliers. The boxplot is as follows:
Boxplot of Residuals

10

10

Residual

The median diers slightly from the mean (0). The boxplot is fairly symmetric, so the ANOVA is likely to be valid.
10.4 (a) The graph suggests that the Boat Bay mean is higher than the means for the Maud Island

sites.

110

Average weight gain for frogs at three locations

4.0 Mean weight gain 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5

Maud Island, Grid 1

Maud Island, Grid 2 Location

Boat Bay

(b)

Source Between groups Within groups Total

df 2 48 50

SS 26.6945 119.3799 146.0745

MS 13.347 2.487

F 5.367

H0 : all three population group means are equal, vs Ha : at least one is dierent. The test statistic is F = 5.367 and rejection region is values > F (2, 48) F (2, 40) = 3.2317 at the 5% level. We reject H0 , the means are not all equal, i.e. mean weight gain does depend on the location of the frogs. (c) Using t48 (t40 + t60 )/2 = 2.0105 and sp = 2.487 = 1.577, 95% condence interval is (3.95 2.17) 2.0105 1.577 1/7 + 1/30 = 1.78 1.33 = (0.45, 3.11). The t-score is approximate as there is no value for t48 in the tables. (d) 0 is not in the condence interval, so this is evidence that the dierence between the two is not zero, i.e. there is a signicant dierence.
10.5 (a)

Source Between groups Within groups Total

df 2 63 65

SS 13.075 21.757 34.832

MS 6.538 0.345

F 18.931

H0 : all three population group means are equal, vs Ha : at least one is dierent. The test statistic is F = 18.931 and rejection region is values > F (2, 65) F (2, 60) = 3.1504. We reject H0 , the mean number of skinks caught each day is not the same in all locations. (b) For pasture x = 0.441, for replanted forest x = 1.455. Using t63 t60 = 2.000 and sp = 0.345 = 0.587, 95% condence interval is (0.4411.455)2.0000.587 1/22 + 1/22 = 1.014 0.354 = (1.368, 0.660).
10.6 (a)

Source Between groups Within groups Total

df 2 27 29

SS 123.8 331.4 455.2

MS 61.9 12.274

F 5.043

H0 : all three population group means are equal, vs Ha : at least one is dierent. The test statistic is F = 5.043. Rejection region is values > 3.3541 (F (2, 27) with = 0.05). So reject H0 . (b) Residuals for 18 C are: 0.9, 1.1, 0.1, 1.1, 7.9, 4.1, 0.1, 2.1, 0.9, 1.1. Residuals for 21 C are: 5.2, 1.8, 2.8, 4.2, 2.8, 1.2, 3.2, 0.8, 3.8, 1.8. Residuals for 22 C are: 3.1, 1.1, 0.1, 2.9, 8.1, 0.1, 3.9, 1.1, 6.9, 0.1. These have median = 0.1, LQ = 1.8, UQ = 2.1, min = 8.1 and max = 6.9, with a very symmetric boxplot. The normality assumption is probably 111

OK.
10.7 (a) Site 1: min = 255, LQ = 280 median = 290, U Q = 325 and max = 420. Site 2: min = 270,

LQ = 300 median = 307.5, U Q = 320 and max = 340. Site 3: min = 280, LQ = 310 median = 342.5, U Q = 380 and max = 405. Site 4: min = 260, LQ = 270 median = 280, U Q = 305 and max = 350.
Side by Side Boxplots for Blue Cod Lengths

Site 1 250

Site 2

Site 3

Site 4

300

350

400

length (mm)

Sites 2 and 3 are fairly symmetric but the are quite dierent, so we may doubt that be valid. Source Between groups Within groups Total

other 2 samples are asymmetric. The ranges and IQRs the equal variance assumption. This ANOVA may not df 3 36 39 SS 15589 49039 16951.19 MS 5196.33 1362.194 F 3.815

H0 : all four population group means are equal vs Ha : at least one is dierent. The test statistic is F = 3.815. Rejection region is values > F (3, 36) (F (3, 30) + F (3, 40))/2 = (4.5097 + 4.3126)/2 = 4.4112 at 1% level of signicance. We do not reject H0 , and conclude all 4 population means could be identical. (c) As we accepted H0 , the best point estimate for the mean blue cod length at site 3 is the grand mean x = 315.75.
10.8 (a) The graph suggests a marked dierence in sentence length for Mori which is greater than a

Pacic Islands which is in turn greater than the remaining 2 groups.

112

Average length of sentence for second burglary convictions

Mean length of sentence

20

25

30

European

Pacific Islands Location

Maori

Other

(b)

Source Between groups Within groups Total

df 3 40 43

SS 1959.67 1545.33 3505.00

MS 653.223 38.633

F 16.91

(c) H0 : all four population group means are equal vs Ha : at least one is dierent. The test statistic is F = 16.91. Rejection region is values > F (3, 40) = 2.8387 at 5% level of signicance. We reject H0 , and conclude the observed dierences are signicant at the 5% level. SE (d) sp = M = 38.633 = 6.216 and t40 = 1.684. The 90% CIs are of the form xi 1.684 6.216/ ni . European: 16.5 2.617 = (13.883, 19.117), Pacic Islands: 23.33 3.489 = (19.841, 26.819), Mori: 32 2.903 = (29.097, 34.903) and Other: 16.67 4.273 = (12.397, 20.943). a (e) (23.33 32.00) 2.021 6.216 1/9 + 1/13 = 8.67 5.447 = (14.117, 3.223). 0 is not in the 95% condence interval so we would reject H0 : that the means are the same between the two groups.
10.9 (a) H0 : all four population group means are equal vs Ha : at least one is dierent.

(b)

Source Between groups Within groups Total

df 3 9 12

SS 3.92 37.00 40.92

MS 1.307 4.111

F 0.318

(c) The test statistic is F = 0.318. Rejection region is values > F (3, 9) = 6.9919 at 1% level of signicance. The test statistic is not in the rejection region so we do not reject H0 , so the mean area of moss could well be the same at all sites.
10.10 H0 : all ve population group means are equal vs Ha : at least one is dierent.

Source Between groups Within groups Total

df 4 20 24

SS 475.66 161.30 636.96

MS 118.92 8.065

F 14.745

The test statistic is F = 14.745. Rejection region is values > F (4, 20) = 2.866 at 5% level of signicance. We reject H0 , and conclude a signicant dierence in average water temperatures at the ve sites.
10.11 H0 : all four populations have the same median percentage vs Ha : at least one median diers.

Group A has ranks: 7, 25.5, 21, 28, 13, 3, 20 with RA = 117.5. Group B has ranks: 1, 14, 4, 9, 5, 6, 11.5, 8 with RB = 58.5. Group C has ranks: 2, 17, 19, 16, 11.5, 10 with RC = 75.5.

113

2 Group D has ranks: 15, 24, 18, 27, 29, 22, 25.5, 23 with RD = 183.5. Ri /ni = 7559.154 and K = (12 7559.154)/(29 30) 3 30 = 104.264 90 = 14.26. The rejection region is values > 11.345 (2 at 1% level), so reject H0 . 3

10.12 H0 : all three populations have the same median number of skinks vs Ha : at least one median

diers. Sample 1 has ranks: 10.5, 9, 1.5, 7, 7, 4, 30, 4, 7, 13, 1.5, 24.5, 13, 15.5, 19, 15.5 with R1 = 182. Sample 2 has ranks: 33.5, 44, 47, 19, 10.5, 40, 30, 48, 24.5, 36, 42, 4, 38.5, 26.5, 46, 45 with R2 = 534.5. Sample 3 has ranks: 30, 43, 33.5, 30, 13, 36, 22, 36, 30, 22, 17, 22, 19, 26.5, 2 41, 38.5 with R3 = 459.5. Ri /ni = 33122.16 and K = (12 33122.156)/(48 49) 3 49 = 168.991 147 = 21.991. The rejection region is values > 5.991 (2 at 5% level), so reject H0 . 2
10.13 H0 : all three brands have same median lifetimes vs Ha : at least one median diers. Sample 1 has

ranks: 6, 2, 3, 1, 4 with R1 = 16. Sample 2 has ranks: 13, 10, 11, 8 with R2 = 42. Sample 3 has 2 ranks: 12, 9, 5, 7 with R3 = 33. Ri /ni = 764.45 and K = (12764.45)/(13 14)314 = 8.403. The rejection region is values > 5.991 (2 at 5% level), so reject H0 . 2
10.14 H0 : all four populations have the same median sweat chloride concentration vs Ha : at least one

median diers. Sample 1 has ranks: 28, 8, 1, 17, 5, 19, 35, 21, 32, 13, 25 with R1 = 204. Sample 2 has ranks: 6, 31, 18, 34, 24, 3, 13, 9, 26.5 with R2 = 164.5. Sample 3 has ranks: 10, 4, 30, 26.5, 13, 21, 23 with R3 = 127.5. Sample 4 has ranks: 21, 16, 33, 15, 2, 29, 7, 11 with R4 = 134. 2 Ri /ni = 11356.785 and K = (12 11356.785)/(35 36) 3 36 = 108.1599 108 = 0.1599. The rejection region is values > 7.815 (2 at 5% level), so we do not reject H0 . 3
10.15 H0 : all three reading systems have same median lifetime score (if tested on very large groups of

children) vs Ha : at least one median diers. Sample 1 has ranks: 1, 8, 3, 2, 12.5, 7 with R1 = 33.5. Sample 2 has ranks: 6, 4, 12.5, 11, 5, 9, 16 with R2 = 63.5. Sample 3 has ranks: 17, 15, 10, 14 with 2 R3 = 56. Ri /ni = 1547.08 and K = (12 1547.08)/(17 18) 3 18 = 6.67. The rejection region is values > 5.991 (2 at 5% level), so reject H0 . 2
10.16 H0 : all four populations have the same median length of sentence vs Ha : at least one median

diers. Sample 1 has ranks: 5, 17.5, 5, 5, 5, 17.5, 17.5, 17.5, 39, 17.5, 5, 17.5, 5, 17.5, 17.5, 5 with R1 = 214. Sample 2 has ranks: 17.5, 29, 10.5, 29, 24, 39, 34, 29, 17.5 with R2 = 229.5. Sample 3 has ranks: 29, 29, 39, 39, 29, 39, 44, 29, 39, 39, 39, 29, 39 with R3 = 462. Sample 4 has ranks: 17.5, 5, 2 10.5, 17.5, 29, 5 with R4 = 84.5. Ri /ni = 26323.31 and K = (1225650.19)/(44 45)345 = 159.525 135 = 24.535. The rejection region is values > 7.815 (2 at 5% level), so we reject H0 . 3 By looking at the boxplots, the distributions are asymmetric and so we doubt normality for each population, and the Kruskal-Wallis test will be more reliable than ANOVA.
Boxplot of Length of Sentence

European

Pacific Island

Maori

Other

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

Length of sentence (months)

10.17 H0 : all four groups have the same median area of moss vs Ha : at least one median diers. Sample

A has ranks: 11.5, 1.5, 4.5 with RA = 17.5. Sample B has ranks: 9.5, 4.5, 9.5 with RB = 23.5.

114

Sample C has ranks: 13, 4.5, 7.5 with RC = 25. Sample D has ranks: 11.5, 4.5, 1.5, 7.5 with 2 RD = 25. Ri /ni = 650.749 and K = (12 650.749)/(13 14) 3 14 = 42.9065 42 = 0.9065. The rejection region is values > 7.815 (2 at 5% level), so we do not reject H0 . 3

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Chapter 11
Exercises This set of exercises is for one-way chi-square, and goodness of t tests.
11.1 If a die is fair you would expect that one-sixth of all throws would result in a 1, one-sixth in a

2 etc. In 100 throws of a die the following results occurred:

1 Frequency 19 2 12 3 11 4 16 5 20 6 22

Using a goodness of t test with = 0.05, test whether or not the die is fair.
11.2 A certain plant comes in four varieties, which according to a genetic model theoretically occur in

the ratio 9:3:3:1. In 245 seeds of this plant it was observed that the numbers in the four varieties were 153, 52, 28 and 12 respectively. Does this data support the frequencies predicted by the genetic model? Test at the 5% level of signicance.
11.3 In 1994, 17% of New Zealanders used EFTPOS on a daily basis, while 75% used it at least once a

week, and 8% had never used it. A random sample of 1000 people conducted in 2001 included 168 individuals who used EFTPOS daily, 752 who used it at least once a week, and only 80 who had never used it. Test whether or not the set of proportions changed signicantly between 1994 and 2001. (Data from the AC Nielsen Consumer Finance Monitor.)
11.4 In a eld study on nding tuatara at three sites on Stephens Island, the number of sites at which

tuatara were found on any one visit to the island followed a binomial distribution with n = 3 and p = 0.4. In 24 trips to the island the number of trips in which no tuatara were found at all was seven. For eight trips tuatara were found at one site only, while six trips found tuatara at two sites and three trips found tuatara at all three sites. (a) Complete the table below and perform a goodness of t test on this data using = 0.05. Let X =number of sites at which tuatara were found.
X 0 1 2 3 Probability 0.216 0.432 0.288 0.064 Number observed 7 8 6 3 Number expected

(b) Is there evidence that a binomial distribution may not apply, in particular that p = 0.4 is not constant over time? Give reasons for your answer.
11.5 The supply of many services to visitors to New Zealand is evenly distributed across the 12 months

of the year. The following data are the actual visitor arrivals in 2002. Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 7421 6998 7280 4902 3978 3950 4600 4268 4480 5600 6300 7400 Test whether the arrivals are signicantly dierent across months at the 5% level of signicance. What might cause the arrivals to dier? (Data thanks to David Lowrie, Statistics New Zealand.)
11.6 Ambulance call-outs over one week (in a particular town) were as follows:

Monday 125

Tuesday 83

Wednesday 92

Thursday 86

Friday 109

Saturday 148

Sunday 134

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Does this data support the contention that ambulance call-out frequency is the same irrespective of the day of the week? Use = 0.05.
11.7 Of the 200 winners in one week in a scratch card competition, 112 had even-numbered cards and

88 had odd-numbered cards. Is this signicantly dierent from 50:50? Use = 0.10.
11.8 It is often claimed that basically 39% New Zealand voters are National voters, 42% are Labour

voters and the rest split across all other parties. In a random sample of 500 Dunedin voters 230 said they would vote National and 250 Labour. Does this data support the claim at a 5% level of signicance? The following problems use the contingency table analysis to examine for relationships between categorical variables.
11.9 The table below gives data on three types of major oences by gang aliation of sentenced inmates

in New Zealand jails.

Gang Aliation Oence Violence Sexual violence Drug dealing Total Member 215 46 39 300 Associate 200 45 25 270 None 1485 1009 326 2820 Total 1900 1100 390 3390

(a) Present this data in a stacked bar chart. (b) What assumptions are needed before you can be condent of drawing valid conclusions from the table? Are they likely to be satised in this case? Give a reason for your answer. (c) It is wished to test whether the data provides sucient evidence to indicate a relationship between the type of major crime an inmate has been convicted of and their gang aliation, assuming your assumptions in (b) hold. i. State the null and alternative hypotheses that you would use. ii. Assuming your null hypothesis is correct, give a table of expected frequencies corresponding to the above table of observed frequencies. iii. Test whether or not the gang aliation of a convicted inmate is independent of the type of major crime convicted of at a 5% level of signicance. (Data based on the census of prison inmates, 1999, Department of Corrections.)
11.10 A survey of 800 New Zealanders in 2001 recorded the numbers who had been victims of violent

crime at least once in the previous year. The results are shown in the table below:
European Victim of violent crime Not a victim Total 51 559 610 Mori a 25 100 125 Pacic 6 34 40 Other 2 23 25 Total 84 716 800

(a) What assumptions do you need before being condent of drawing valid conclusions from the table? Are they likely to be satised in this case? Give reasons for your answer. (b) Test whether the data provides sucient evidence to indicate a relationship between being a victim or not, and ethnicity, using a 5% level of signicance. (Data based on New Zealand National Survey of Crime Victims. 2001. Ministry of Justice.)
11.11 In an investigation into the distribution of particular native trees, three areas of the South Island

were targeted. A quadrat at a particular altitude was selected randomly in each of three national parks and the numbers of ribbonwood and lacebark trees (including saplings and seedlings) were counted within each quadrat. The results were:

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Nelson Lakes Ribbonwood Lacebark 24 4

Mount Aspiring 17 13

Mount Cook 23 9

(a) It is wished to test whether the data provide sucient evidence to indicate a relationship between the type of tree and location. Compute a test statistic for this data based on observed and expected frequencies, and test whether the type of tree is independent of location at a 1% level of signicance. (b) Originally a fourth location in Central Otago had been investigated with three ribbonwoods and two lacebarks counted. Explain why this location was not included in the analysis.
11.12 The number of new non-residential building authorisations per year in three North Island regions

is shown in the table below:

Year 1997 1999 2001 Taranaki 241 215 199 Auckland 690 783 831 Wellington 179 197 244

(a) Present this data in a stacked bar chart. (b) Test whether or not the number of new residential building authorisations in a year is independent of region at a 1% level of signicance.
11.13 As part of a local study on perception of environmental issues, 300 18- to 25-year-olds living in

Wellington gave their opinion on whether the motorway bypass through the centre city should go ahead. The subjects were classied according to their principal occupational group and results were:
Full-time work Carer for Student inc. apprentices children at home Unemployed Yes to bypass No to bypass 32 68 60 42 29 41 12 16

Test whether the data provides sucient evidence to indicate a relationship between principal occupation and views on whether the bypass should be built. Are your assumptions satised? State your hypotheses, test statistic, rejection region and conclusion clearly.
11.14 The Department of Conservation is looking to change its policy on the logging of beech forest.

A survey of 400 people were given a draft of the proposed new policy and asked for their views, which are summarised below:
Age of respondents Opinion Agree Oppose 18 - 29 29 61 30 - 39 77 115 40 - 59 2 6 60+ 54 56

(a) Why is it necessary to amalgamate some columns of this table in order to do a valid test of whether there is a relationship between age and attitude to the proposed policy? (b) Amalgamating the 30 - 39 and 40 - 59 categories, we have:
Opinion Agree Oppose 18 - 29 29 61 30 - 59 79 121 60+ 54 56

Does the data provide sucient evidence to indicate that attitude to the proposed policy is independent of the age of respondents at a 5% level of signicance? At 1%? 118

11.15 Fear of ying, while relatively common, can be very inconvenient. A study looking at whether

there was a relationship between age and fear of ying resulted in the following data obtained from 240 males:
Fear of Flying Age group Under 25 26 - 40 Over 40 Always 8 57 25 Sometimes 7 47 16 Never 40 20 20

Test whether degree of fear of ying is independent of age group at a 5% level of signicance. What further information would you need in order to be condent of your conclusion?
11.16 Two hundred former psychiatric patients who had been hospitalised for depression took part in

a study designed to lift their overall mood. In particular patterns of waking were assessed. The study subjects were put into one of three treatment programmes; a physical tness programme, a music and art therapy programme, and the third group was given no special therapy. At the end of a 4-month trial the participants were monitored for two weeks and among other things questioned about their frequency of early morning wakening (a common symptom of depression). The results were:
Frequency of early morning awakening Almost nightly Physical tness Music and art No programme 24 17 23 2 - 5 nights/week 16 39 31 Once/week or not at all 30 4 16

Calculate row and column totals for this contingency table and use them to calculate expected frequencies for each cell assuming no dependence between treatment programme and frequency of early morning awakening. Test whether the data provide sucient evidence to indicate a relationship between treatment programme and frequency of early morning awakening. Test using = 0.01.
11.17 The following data were collected on customer satisfaction at a Wellington store: Not satised Male Female 13 23 Satised 42 30 Very satised 32 15

(a) Do these data suggest that the gender of the customer, and their satisfaction level are related? Use a 5% level for the test. (b) What recommendation would you give to the manager of the store?
11.18 The table below displays deaths in the 15- to 24-year-old males in New Zealand in 1990 by ethnicity

and cause of death.

Cause of death Vehicle crashes Suicide Drowning Assault Other Mori a 33 10 2 2 13 Non-Mori a 234 101 15 11 89

(a) Test whether or not cause of death and ethnicity are independent in this age group of males using a 5% level of signicance.

119

(b) Should the rows for drowning and assault be amalgamated since they have rather small numbers, especially for Mori? Justify your answer. a (c) Draw up a table similar to the one above using percentage of Mori and non-Mori in each a a cause of death instead of numbers. Why is this helpful? (Mortality and Demographic Data, Department of Health, 1993 NZHIS.)
11.19 As part of a study on whether the willingness of people to oer assistance to a person in distress

was inuenced by the number of bystanders, 60 subjects observed a person who appeared to be having an asthma attack. Twenty subjects were alone (apart from the person having the attack) while the others had various numbers of other people around. These bystanders were part of the experiment and oered no help. The results were:
No bystanders Help oered No help oered 14 6 One bystander 7 13 2 bystanders 4 16

Test whether or not help is oered is independent of the number of other bystanders at a 5% level of signicance.
11.20 Commuters who come into Wellington to work come from a variety of residential areas. The

following data are for 1976 and 1991:

Year 1976 1991 Kapiti Coast 2060 2421 Wairarapa 200 480 Upper Hutt 3521 3360 Lower Hutt 9697 11613 Porirua 7268 7137

Are the home regions of commuters into Wellington independent of year, i.e. has the pattern of commuting changed over time? Test at the 5% level of signicance. (Data thanks to Brad Patterson, published in McConchie, Winchester and Willis, Dynamic Wellington, 2000, Institute of Geography, VUW.)
11.21 Delegates to the last three ICME conferences come from all over the world. The table below shows

the venue of the last three conferences and the country of origin of some of the delegates.
Conference Venue Delegates from Nordic nations Canada & USA UK & Ireland Australia & New Zealand China, Japan & SE Asia Northern Europe Southern Europe Total Denmark 388 369 114 104 155 136 147 1413 Japan 108 239 92 77 1090 83 79 1768 Spain 126 327 208 146 150 114 1027 2098 Total 622 935 414 327 1395 333 1253 5279

(a) Assuming that the numbers attending each conference are independent of the country of origin of the delegates, draw up a table of expected frequencies. (b) What are the degrees of freedom associated with this contingency table? Find the rejection region for a chi-square statistic with those degrees of freedom using a 1% level of signicance. (c) Test the assumption in (a) at the 1% level of signicance. You will not need to evaluate all the terms of your test statistic. Why?
11.22 A survey was conducted among a random sample of 6,672 adults and one of the questions asked was

whether the respondent was right-handed, ambidextrous or left-handed. The following frequency table was obtained where other includes both left-handed and ambidextrous:

120

Men Right-handed Other 2,780 311

Women 3,281 300

(a) Test whether gender and handedness are independent at the 5% level of signicance using Yates continuity correction in your test statistic and stating clearly your hypotheses and conclusion. (b) The total number of ambidextrous men and women in the sample was four. Explain why left-handedness and ambidextrous were combined.
11.23 Referring back to Exercise 9.17, there were 44 Maud Island frogs that were not relocated to Boat

Bay. These frogs were in one of two locations: Grid 1 or Grid 2. The weight gains for these frogs over the 12-year period were as follows:
Grid 1 Grid 2 1.67 0.50 1.27 4.10 1.27 0.25 2.72 2.93 1.10 1.48 0.43 1.65 0.80 3.07 2.20 2.33 4.20 0.58 3.15 5.97 2.85 -0.30 1.20 4.18 2.22 3.68 1.80 2.93 1.07 -1.70 3.25 2.40 0.10 1.66 1.50 2.55 0.85 3.50 1.97 3.15 2.20 0.00 1.18 -0.27

Count the numbers of frogs in each location that made a weight gain of less than 2.33g and those whose gain was 2.33g or more and use this to complete the following table:
Grid 1 Weight gain < 2.33g Weight gain 2.33g Grid 2

Test whether the weight gain of the frogs is independent of their location on Maud Island. Use a 5% level of signicance.
11.24 A random sample of 30 females and 30 males was collected and their romantic attachments studied.

All subjects were students. Of interest was the level of anxiety people feel about their romantic attachments. Subjects respond to items such as: I rarely worry about my partner leaving me on a Likert scale and results were collated into an overall anxiety score. Results were as follows:
Males Below average score Average and above score 24 6 Females 20 10

Test whether level of anxiety about romantic attachments is independent of gender at a 5% level of signicance. (Data thanks to Chris Sibley.)
11.25 In a clinical trial of cannabis for the relief of pain in severe chronic arthritis, 400 patients received

treatment with cannabis oil and a control group of 400 received treatment with a similar-looking placebo. After a six-month trial results were:
Placebo Improved Not improved 238 162 Cannabis 144 256

Conduct a chi-square test to decide if these results give evidence at the 5% level of signicance that the cannabis oil is eective in reducing pain in arthritis.

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Solutions
11.1 H0 : pi = 1/6 vs Ha : at least one diers. Expected frequency in each category 100 1/6 = 16.67.

Test statistic 2 = (19 16.67)2/16.67 + + (22 16.67)2 /16.67 = 5.959. The rejection region is values > 11.070 (2 at 5%). Cannot reject H0 , the die seems to be fair. 5

11.2 H0 : p1 = 9/16, p2 = 3/16, p3 = 3/16, p4 = 1/16 vs Ha : at least one diers from that stated. The
9 observed frequencies are 153, 52, 28 and 12. The expected frequencies are 16 245 = 137.8125, 3 3 1 16 245 = 45.9375, 16 245 = 45.9375 and 16 245 = 15.3125 respectively. The test statistic is 2 = (153 137.8125)2/137.8125 + (52 45.9375)2/45.9375 + (28 45.9375)2/45.9375 + (12 15.3125)2/15.3125 = 1.674 + 0.800 + 7.004 + 0.717 = 10.195. The rejection region is values > 7.815, so we reject H0 at the 5% level. The data does not support the frequencies predicted by the genetic model.

11.3 H0 : p1 = 0.17, p2 = 0.75, p3 = 0.08 vs Ha : at least one diers. The observed frequencies are 168,

752 and 80. The expected frequencies are 0.171000 = 170, 0.751000 = 750 and 0.081000 = 80 respectively. The test statistic is 2 = (168 170)2 /170 + (752 750)2 /750 + (80 80)2 /80 = 0.024 + 0.005 + 0 = 0.029. The rejection region is values > 5.991 at the 5% level, so we do not reject H0 , i.e. the proportions have not changed signicantly between 1994 and 2001.
11.4 (a) H0 : X Bin(3, 0.4), vs Ha : X is not binomial with p = 0.4. The expected frequencies

are 0.216 24 = 5.184, 0.432 24 = 10.368, 0.288 24 = 6.912, 0.064 24 = 1.536. Only 75% have expected value > 5, so we will combine the last 2 groups. (for the new group 3: observed = 9, expected = 8.448). The test statistic is 2 = (7 5.184)2/5.184 + (8 10.368)2 /10.368 + (9 8.448)2/8.448 = 0.6362 + 0.5408 + 0.03607 = 1.2131. The rejection region is values > 5.991 at the 5% level, so we do not reject H0 , and conclude that the binomial distribution is an appropriate one for the data. (b) The data follows the binomial distribution at each trip, but over time this distribution may be changing. It is noticeable that in each trip you would expect 3 0.4 = 1.2 tuatara so in 24 trips you expect about 24 1.2 = 28.8 whereas only 25 were observed. evenly distributed, the expected values are = 1/12 67177 = 5598.083. The test statistic is 2 = (7421 5598.083)2/5598.083 + + (7400 5598.083)2/5598.083 = 593.6 + + 580.00 = 3874.9. The 2 rejection region is values > 19.675, the test statistic is in rejection region, so visitor arrival 11 numbers are not evenly distributed throughout the year. Note that you only need to work out the rst term which is already > 19.675.

11.5 H0 : pi = 1/12 vs Ha : at least one pi = 1/6. Total number of visitor arrivals = 67177. If these are

11.6 H0 : pi = 1/7 vs Ha : at least one pi = 1/6. Total number of call-outs = 777. If the frequency is

independent of the day of the week, the expected values are = 1/7 777 = 111. The test statistic is 2 = (125 111)2 /111+ + (134 111)2 /111 = 1.766 + 7.063 + 3.252 + 5.631 + 0.036 + 12.333 + 4.766 = 34.85 The rejection region is values > 12.592, the test statistic is in rejection region, so we reject H0 , i.e. ambulance call-out frequency does depend on what day of the week it is.
11.7 H0 : pi = 0.5 vs Ha : pi = 0.5.

Expected frequencies are 200 0.5 = 100. Test statistic 2 = (112 100)2 /100 + (88 100)2 /100 = 2.88. The rejection region is values > 2.706 (2 at 1 10%). Reject H0 . Notice that this is equivalent to a large sample test of a proportion, which gives a p-value of 8.97% and the same conclusion.

11.8 H0 : p = 0.42, pn = 0.39, po = 0.19. Observed frequencies were 250, 230 and 20 with n = 500.

Expected frequencies are 0.42 500 = 210, 0.39 500 = 195 and 0.19 500 = 95 respectively. Test statistic 2 = (250 210)2 /210 + (230 195)2 /195 + (20 95)2 /95 = 7.619 + 6.282 + 59.211 = 73.112. The rejection region is values > 5.991 (2 at 5%). Reject H0 , the claim is false (in Dunedin 2 at least).

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11.9 (a)
Major offence classified by gang affiliation

None Associate Member 1500 Frequency 0 500 1000

Violence

Sexual violence

Drug dealing

(b) We need a random sample and each observation can only t into one category. We may doubt these assumptions in this case as people in gangs may know each other and they might have committed more than one oence, i.e. they are likely to share beliefs and behaviour. (c) i. H0 : there is no association between gang aliation and oence vs Ha : there is an association. ii. Member Associate None Total Violence 168.14 151.33 1580.53 1900 Sexual Violence 97.35 87.61 915.04 1100 34.51 31.06 324.43 390 Drug Dealing Total 300 270 2820 3390 iii. Test statistic is 2 = (215 168.14)2/168.14+ +(326 324.43)2/324.43 = 13.06+ +0.01 = 93.72. There are (r 1) (c 1) = 2 2 = 4 degrees of freedom and 2 at 5% = 9.488. The test 4 statistic is greater than 9.488, so we reject H0 , and conclude there is an association between gang aliation and oence.
11.10 (a) Data must enter the table independently so we must have no relatives in the sample and no

one must be counted twice under two ethnicities. Unlikely to be satised, as being a victim, like being a criminal, tends to run in families because similar sets of social circumstances tend to apply. (b) H0 : whether or not one is a victim of violent crime is independent of ethnicity vs Ha : there is a relationship between ethnicity and whether or not one is a victim of violent crime. Expected frequencies are (L-R, top to bottom): 64.05, 13.125, 4.2, 2.625, 545.95, 111.875, 35.8, 22.375 and 25% of these are less than 5 so we should amalgamate. Combining Pacic and Other groups, with observed (expected) frequencies 8 (6.825) and 57 (58.175), the test statistic is 2 = (51 64.05)2/64.05 + + (57 58.175)2/58.175 = 2.659 + + 0.0237 = 15.2014. The rejection region is values > 5.991 (2 at 5%). The test statistic lies in the rejection region, so we reject H0 . 2
11.11 (a) H0 : there is no association vs Ha : there is an association. Expected frequencies:

Ribbonwood Lacebark Total

Nelson Lakes 19.91 8.09 28

Mount Aspiring 21.33 8.67 30

Mount Cook 22.76 9.24 32

Total 64 26 90

Test statistic is 2 = (24 19.91)2 /19.91 + + (9 9.24)2 /9.24 = 0.840 + + 0.006 = 5.963. There are (r 1) (c 1) = 2 1 = 2 degrees of freedom and 2 at 1% = 9.210. The test statistic is 2 less than 9.210, so we do not reject H0 , and conclude that there is no relationship between location and type of tree. (b) The values in the cells are not big enough, you would get too many expected values < 5.

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11.12 (a)
Nonresidential building authorisations by region
1200

Wellington Auckland Taranaki

Frequency

200

400

600

800

1000

1997

1999

2001

(b) H0 : region and year of non-residential building authorisations are independent vs Ha : they are dependent. 1997 1999 2001 Total Taranaki 203.14 218.70 233.16 655 Auckland 714.57 769.29 820.14 2304 Wellington 192.29 207.10 220.70 620 Total 1110 1195 1274 3579

Test statistic is 2 = 7.055 + + 2.460 = 17.217. There are (r 1) (c 1) = 2 2 = 4 degrees of freedom and 2 at 1% = 13.277. Rejection region is values > 13.277, so we reject H0 and conclude 4 that there is an association. From the plot, we see that Aucklands permits are increasing, while those in Taranaki are decreasing.
11.13 H0 : occupation and opinion are independent, vs Ha : they are not independent. Table of expected

values: Yes No Total Student 44.33 55.67 100 Full time 45.22 56.78 102 Carer 31.03 38.97 70 Unemployed 12.41 15.59 28 Total 133 167 300

Test statistic is 2 = 3.431 + + 0.011 = 15.106. There are (r 1) (c 1) = 1 3 = 3 degrees of freedom and 2 at 5% = 7.815, so rejection region is values > 7.815 and we reject H0 . We conclude 3 that there is an association between principal occupation and views on the bypass.
11.14 (a) r1 = 162, r2 = 238, c1 = 90, c2 = 192, c3 = 8 and c4 = 110 with n = 400. Expected frequencies

are (L-R, top to bottom): 36.45, 77.76, 3.24, 44.55, 53.55, 114.24, 4.76, 65.45. There are two cells with expected frequencies less than 5 (25%) so we must amalgamate. (b) The new expected frequencies are: 36.45, 81.0, 44.55, 53.55, 119.0, 65.45. H0 : age and opinion on this issue are independent vs Ha : age and opinion are associated. This has (r 1) (c 1) = 2 degrees of freedom. Critical value at 5% is 5.991. Test statistic is 2 = (29 36.45)2 /36.45 + + (56 65.45)2/65.45 = 6.011. We reject H0 . At 1% level of signicance critical value = 9.21 so at 1% we cannot reject H0 .
11.15 H0 : Fear of ying and age are independent vs Ha : they are dependent. Table of expected values:

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Under 25 26 -40 Over 40 Total

Always 20.63 46.5 22.88 90

Sometimes 16.04 36.17 17.79 70

Never 18.33 41.33 20.33 80

Total 55 124 61 240

Test statistic is 2 = 7.728 + + 0.005 = 55.440. There are (r 1) (c 1) = 2 2 = 4 degrees of freedom and 2 at 5% = 9.488, rejection region is values > 9.488, we reject H0 , and conclude 4 that age and fear of ying are dependent.
11.16 H0 : there is no relationship between type of treatment and frequency of early morning wakening

vs Ha : there is a relationship. Table of expected values: Physical tness Music and Art No programme Total Always 22.4 19.2 22.4 64 Sometimes 30.1 25.8 30.1 86 Never 17.5 15.0 17.5 50 Total 70 60 70 200

Test statistic is 2 = 0.114 + 6.605 + + 0.129 = 30.892. There are (r 1) (c 1) = 2 2 = 4 degrees of freedom and 2 at 1% = 13.277, rejection region is values > 13.277, the test statistic is 4 in the rejection region so we reject H0 , i.e. there is a relationship between treatment programme and frequency of early morning awakening.
11.17 (a) H0 : there is no relationship between gender and satisfaction level vs Ha : there is a relationship.

Table of expected values: Male Female Total Not satised 20.21 15.79 36 Satised 40.41 31.59 72 Very satised 26.38 20.62 47 Total 87 68 155

Test statistic is 2 = (13 20.21)2 /20.21 + + (15 20.62)2 /20.62 = 2.572 + + 1.531 = 8.735. There are (r 1) (c 1) = 2 1 = 2 degrees of freedom, rejection region is values > 5.991. The test statistic is in the rejection region so we reject H0 , i.e. there is a relationship between gender and customer satisfaction. (b) 23/68 = 34% of female customers are not satised compared with 15% of male customers. The manager of the store needs to nd a way to make female customers feel more satised.
11.18 (a) H0 : Cause of death and ethnicity are independent vs Ha : they are not independent. Table

of expected values: Vehicle crashes Suicide Drowning Assault Other Total Mori a 31.41 13.06 2.00 1.53 12.00 60 Non-Mori a 235.59 97.94 15.00 11.47 90.00 450 Total 267 111 17 13 102 510

Test statistic is 2 = (33 31.41)2/31.41 + + (89 90)2 /90 = 0.080 + + 0.011 = 1.161570. There are (r 1) (c 1) = 1 4 = 4 degrees of freedom, rejection region is values > 9.488. The test statistic is not in the rejection region so we do not reject H0 that cause of death and ethnicity are independent. (b) We consider amalgamating rows if less than 80% have expected frequency > 5, the table in (a) shows that 8/10 = 80% have expected frequency > 5, so there is no need to amalgamate. (c) Percentage of total for each cause of death (% to 1dp.):

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Cause of death Vehicle crashes Suicide Drowning Assault Other

Mori a 55.0 16.7 3.3 3.3 21.7

Non-Mori a 52.0 22.4 3.3 2.4 19.8

The population sizes are very dierent which makes comparing the numbers dicult. By converting to percentages, we see that the two groups are similar.
11.19 H0 : whether or not help is oered is independent of the number of other bystanders vs Ha :

there is a relationship between whether or not help is oered and the number of other bystanders. Expected frequencies are: 8.33, 8.33, 8.33, 11.667, 11.667, 11.667 with 2 degrees of freedom. Critical value at 5% = 5.991. Test statistic is 2 = (14 8.33)2/8.33 + + (16 11.667)2/11.667 = 10.837. So reject H0 .
11.20 H0 : Patterns of commuting into Wellington is independent of year vs Ha : Patterns of commuting

into Wellington is dependent on year. Table of expected values: 1976 1991 Total Kapiti Coast 2134.24 2346.76 4481 Wairarapa 323.87 356.13 680 Upper Hutt 3277.33 3603.67 6881 Lower Hutt 10149.66 11160.34 21310 Porirua 6860.90 7544.10 14405 Total 22746 25011 47757

Test statistic is 2 = 2.582 + + 21.968 = 214.664. There are (r 1) (c 1) = 4 1 = 4 degrees of freedom, rejection region is values > 9.488. The test statistic is in the rejection region so we reject H0 , i.e. patterns of commuting have changed over time.
11.21 (a) Table of expected values:

Nordic Nations Canada & USA UK & Ireland Australia & New Zealand China, Japan & SE Asia Northern Europe Southern Europe

Denmark 166.49 250.27 110.81 87.53 373.39 89.13 335.38

Japan 208.32 313.14 138.65 109.52 467.20 111.53 419.64

Spain 247.20 371.59 164.53 129.96 554.41 132.34 497.97

(b) There are (r 1) (c 1) = 2 6 = 12 degrees of freedom and 2 at 1% = 26.217, so rejection 12 region is values > 26.217. (c) 2 = (388 166.49)2/166.49 + = 294.725 + > 26.217. The rst term of the test statistic > 26.217, and all terms in the test statistic are positive so we can reject H0 .
11.22 (a) H0 : gender and handedness are independent vs Ha : gender and handedness are not inde-

pendent. Expected frequencies are: 2807.94, 3253.06, 283.06, 327.94 with 1 degree of freedom. Using Yates correction, the numerator of the test statistic is (29.94 0.5)2 = 29.442 for all cells. Test statistic is 2 = 29.442/2807.94 + 29.442/3253.06 + 29.442/283.06 + 29.442/327.94 = 5.455. Rejection region is values > 3.841, so reject H0 . (b) Because these would both have expected numbers less than 5 which is 33.3% and greater than the allowed 20%.
11.23 Here is the completed contingency table with observed / expected frequencies:

Weight gain < 2.33g Weight gain 2.33g Total

Grid 1 10 / 8.59 4 / 5.41 14

Grid 2 17 / 18.41 13 / 11.59 30

Total 27 17 44

H0 : Weight gain of frogs on Maud Island is independent of their location vs Ha : they are not independent. Using Yates correction, the numerator of the test statistic is (1.41 0.5)2 = 0.912 for all cells. Test statistic is 2 = 0.912 /8.59 + 0.912 /5.41 + 0.912 /18.41 + 0.912 /11.59 = 0.096 +

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0.153 + 0.045 + 0.071 = 0.365. The test has 1 degree of freedom, with rejection region at 5% level > 3.841. We do not reject H0 that weight gain is independent of location on Maud Island.
11.24 H0 : Romantic attachments and gender are independent vs Ha : they are not independent. Ex-

pected values are: 22, 22, 8 and 8. Using Yates correction, the numerator of the test statistic is (2 0.5)2 = 1.52 for all cells. The test statistic is 2 = 1.52 22 + 1.52 22 + 1.52 8 + 1.52 8 = 0.102 + 0.102 + 0.281 + 0.281 = 0.767. The test has 1 degree of freedom, with rejection region at 5% level > 3.841. We do not reject H0 , and conclude that the level of anxiety about romantic attachments is independent of gender.
11.25 H0 : whether or not the patient improves is independent of the use of cannabis or a placebo vs

Ha : they are not independent. The expected frequencies are: 191, 191, 209, 209, with 1 degree of freedom. Using Yates correction, the numerator of the test statistic is (47 0.5)2 = 46.52 for all cells. The test statistic is 2 = 46.52 /191 + 46.52 /191 + 46.52 /209 + 46.52 /209 = 43.33. Rejection region is values > 3.841, so reject H0 .

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Chapter 12
Exercises In each of the following exercises state carefully your hypotheses, test statistic, rejection region and conclusion.
12.1 In Exercise 4.14, test at the 5% level the hypothesis that there is no linear relationship between

the metabolic rates in trial 1 and trial 2 (i.e. the slope of the regression line = 0).
12.2 In Exercise 4.17 test at the 1% level whether or not the slope of the true regression line is zero.

What does this imply about the nature of the relationship between social dominance scores and support for biculturalism in principle scores?
12.3 Continuing Exercise 4.22, test at the 1% level the hypothesis that there is no linear relationship

between spatial ability score and accuracy of recollection (i.e. the slope of the regression line = 0).
12.4 Using the data from Exercise 4.27, test whether or not a linear relationship can be said to exist

between median income per region and percentage of white collar workers in that region, using a 1% level of signicance.
12.5 Test whether the true slope of the regression line in the situation described in Exercise 4.29 is zero

using a 5% level of signicance.

12.6 Using your results from Exercise 4.32, test whether or not a linear relationship exists between

incubation temperature and snout-vent length in tuatara. Use = 0.05.

12.7 Using the data in Exercise 4.25, the manager would like to see a prot of at least $20 for each $1

spent on advertising. Test whether or not the slope exceeds 20 at the 5% level. These exercises are for tests of the intercept.
12.8 In Exercise 4.22 test whether the true intercept of the regression line is 1.5 using a 5% level of

signicance.

12.9 Test H0 : = 0.04 in Exercise 4.24 using a 5% level of signicance. 12.10 Using the data in Exercise 4.25, interpret the intercept term in this situation. Is the intercept

signicantly greater than 8?

12.11 Using Exercise 4.27, test at the 5% level whether or not the intercept for the regression line for

the population from which that sample was drawn is 5.

12.12 From Exercise 4.33, test H0 : = 50 using a 5% level of signicance. 12.13 The trainer in Exercise 4.13 is worried that the system favours the younger trainees over the

mentors. If the programme is fair to both partners, then we would expect = 0 and = 1. (a) Test whether or not = 1 at the 5% level. (b) Test whether or not = 0 at the 5% level. (c) What conclusion can you draw about the programme from the sample data? In the following exercises, give 95% prediction intervals in the following situations.
12.14 Using the data in Exercise 4.14, for a trial 1 metabolic rate of 0.1 mL/g. 12.15 Using the data in Exercise 4.17, for an SDO score of 2.41. 12.16 Using the data in Exercise 4.20, for a weight of strontium of 5.75%. 12.17 Using the data in Exercise 4.21, for a house with 3 bedrooms. 12.18 Using the data in Exercise 4.25, for advertising expenditure of $750.

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Solutions
12.1 H0 : = 0 vs Ha : = 0. SXX = 0.02446, SY Y = 0.01314, SXY = 0.01421. Have = 0.0165 and

test statistic T = 0.581/(0.0165/ 0.02446) = 5.513 and this is t18 . The rejection region is values > 2.101 and < 2.101, the test statistic is in the rejection region, so reject H0 , concluding that the slope of the regression line is signicantly dierent from zero.

12.2 H0 : = 0 vs Ha : = 0. SXX = 2.8065, SY Y = 3.2267, SXY = 0.5787. Have = 0.5574 and

test statistic T = 0.2062/(0.5574/ 2.8065) = 0.6197 and this is t10 . The rejection region is values > 3.169 and < 3.169, the test statistic is not in the rejection region, so we cant reject H0 . There is no linear relationship between the two scores. 12.3 H0 : = 0 vs Ha : = 0. Have = 3.618 and test statistic T = 7.342/(3.618/ 11.489) = 6.88 and this is t8 . The rejection region is values > 3.355, so reject H0 . and test statistic T = 0.00224/(3.3588/ 62477500) = 5.2722 and this is t14 . The rejection region is values > 2.977 and < 2.977, the test statistic is in the rejection region, so we can reject H0 . There is a linear relationship between the median income per region and percentage of white collar workers.

12.4 H0 : = 0 vs Ha : = 0. SXX = 62477500, SY Y = 471.5244, SXY = 139971.2. Have = 3.3588

12.5 H0 : = 0 vs Ha : = 0. SXX = 2392.9, SY Y = 4719.6, SXY = 3032.8. Have = 10.46292

and test statistic T = 1.26742/(10.46292/ 2392.9) = 5.9256 and this is t8 . The rejection region is values > 2.306 and < 2.306, the test statistic is in the rejection region, so we can reject H0 . 12.6 H0 : = 0 vs Ha : = 0. Have = 4.870 and test statistic T = 1.269/(4.87/ 34.667) = 1.53 and this is t10 . The rejection region is values > 2.228 and < 2.228 so cannot reject H0 . and test statistic T = (21.46789 20)/(0.6825/ 0.18167) = 0.9167 and this is t10 . The rejection region is values > 1.812, the test statistic is not in the rejection region, so we do not reject H0 . We conclude that the true slope does not exceed 20. 62.145/11.489 = 8.415. The test statistic is (1.48 (1.5))/8.415 = 0.00234 and this is t8 . The rejection region is values > 2.306 or < 2.306, so we cannot reject H0 .

12.7 H0 : = 20 vs Ha : > 20. SXX = 0.18167, SY Y = 88.3825, SXY = 3.9. Have = 0.6825

12.8 H0 : = 1.5 vs Ha : = 1.5. Again have = 3.618, with se(a) = 3.618

12.9 H0 : = 0.04 vs Ha : = 0.04. SXX = 0.0245, SY Y = 0.01314, SXY = 0.01421. = 0.0165, with

se(a) = 0.0165 0.0117/0.0245 = 0.01142. The test statistic is T = (0.0295 0.04)/0.01142 = 0.919 and this is t18 . The rejection region is values > 2.101 or < 2.101, the test statistic is not in the rejection region, so we cannot reject H0 .
12.10 H0 : = 8 vs Ha : > 8. From 12.7, have = 0.6825, so se(a) = 0.6825

0.41625/0.1817 = 1.0331. The test statistic is T = (11.12867 8)/1.0331 = 3.0285 and this is t10 . At 5% signicance, the rejection region is values > 1.812, the test statistic is in the rejection region, so we can reject H0 . 298456250/62477500 = 7.3411. The test statistic is T = (5.8312 (5))/7.3411 = 0.1132 and this is t14 . At 5% significance, the rejection region is values > 2.145 or < 2.145, the test statistic is not in the rejection region, so we do not reject H0 , so the intercept could be 5.

12.11 H0 : = 5 vs Ha : = 5. From 12.4, have = 3.3588, so se(a) = 3.3588

12.12 H0 : = 50 vs Ha : = 50. Have = 6.547, with se(a) = 6.547

550/1090 = 4.651. The test statistic is (71.28 50)/4.651 = 4.58 and this is t8 . The rejection region is values > 2.306 or < 2.306, so we reject H0 .

12.13 (a) Test H0 : = 1 vs Ha : = 1. SXX 718, SY Y = 563.875, SXY = 514. Have = 5.7142. =

Test statistic is T = (0.7158 1)/(5.7142/ 718) = 1.333 and this is t6 . The rejection region is values > 2.447 and < 2.447. The test statistic is not in the rejection region, so we do not reject H0 . (b) H0 : = 0 vs Ha : = 0. se(a) = 5.7142 450.75/26.7955 = 4.5275. The test statistic is T = 11.7733/4.5275 = 2.600 and this is also t6 . The test statistic is in the rejection region, so we 129

also reject H0 : = 0. (c) We reject H0 : = 0, but not = 1. The evidence indicates that the programme is not fair to both partners. 12.14 The prediction is Y = 0.0294 + 0.5805 0.1 = 0.0875. From 12.1, we have = 0.0165, so 12.15 The prediction is Y = 2.86099 + 0.206189 2.41 = 3.3579. From 12.2, we have = 0.5574, so se(Y ) = 0.0165 1 + 1/20 + (0.0026)2/0.02446 = 0.01688. The condence interval is 0.0875 2.101 0.01688 = 0.0875 0.0355 giving (0.0521, 0.1230).

12.16 The prediction is Y = 6.1786 + 2.2551 5.75 = 19.1454. SXX = 4.59375, SY Y = 48.5547, 12.17 The prediction is Y = 74.8 + 49 3 = 221.8, i.e. $221,800. We have = 45.285 and se(Y ) = 12.18 The prediction is Y = 11.12867 + 21.46789 0.75 = 27.23. From 12.7, we have = 0.6825, so 45.285 1 + 1/24 + 0.5422/47.958 = 46.35. The condence interval is 221.8 2.074 46.35 = 221.8 96.1 giving (125.7, 317.9). SXY = 10.3594. We have = 2.0491 and se(Y ) = 2.0491 1 + 1/8 + (0.9375)2/4.59375 = 2.351. The condence interval is 19.1454 2.447 2.351 = 19.1454 5.7528 giving (7.3572, 30.9336).

se(Y ) = 0.5574 1 + 1/12 + (0.1192)2 /2.8065 = 0.5815. The condence interval is 3.3579 2.228 0.5815 = 3.3579 1.2957 giving (2.0622, 4.6536).

se(Y ) = 0.6825 1 + 1/12 + (0.1167)2 /0.18167 = 0.7345. The condence interval is 27.23 2.228 0.7345 = 27.23 1.64 giving (25.59, 28.87).

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