Commodities Daily Report

Wednesday| January 30, 2013

Agricultural Commodities

Content
News & Market Highlights Chana Sugar Oilseed Complex Spices Complex Kapas/Cotton

Research Team
Vedika Narvekar - Sr. Research Analyst vedika.narvekar@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn. 6130 Anuj Choudhary - Research Analyst anuj.choudhary@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn. 6132

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Commodities Daily Report

Wednesday| January 30, 2013

Agricultural Commodities
News in brief
Arabica prices might see modest recovery by June
Arabica coffee prices, which saw a steep decline through the past year following a bumper crop in Brazil, are likely to rise about 10 per cent by June, owing to an off year in Brazil and low production in countries such as Costa Rica.Arabica prices fell 40- 45 per cent to 143 cents a pound, compared with 250- 260 cents a pound in the first three months of 2012, before recovering to 155 cents a pound. In 2012, Brazil, the largest producer of coffee in the world, harvested arecord 50.8 million bags (60 kg each), including robusta coffee harvests. However, it is expected to see an off year in 2013. Analysts expect arabica to recover some lost ground this year. The arabica crop in Costa Rica has reportedly been hit by Roya fungus.In India, the process of harvesting arabica coffee has just been concluded and planters have reported production to be lower than estimated by the Coffee Board and the Karnataka Planters Association. A section of the exporters dont think arabica prices would rise anytime soon. They say in the JanuaryMarch quarter, prices could either remain flat at 150 cents or decline marginally. (Source: Business Standard)

Market Highlights (% change)

Last Prev. day

as on Jan 29, 2013

WoW MoM YoY

Sensex Nifty INR/$ Nymex Crude Oil - $/bbl Comex Gold - $/oz

19991 6050 53.66 97.57 1661

-0.56 -0.41 -0.74 1.17 0.50

0.05 0.02 -0.13 1.38 -1.90

2.81 2.40 -2.02 7.46 0.35

16.27 16.36 8.36 -0.92 -4.44

.Source: Reuters

Coconut oil prices hold steady in Kerala, TN markets

The arrival of copra from Sabarimala in large quantities might impact coconut oil prices both in the Tamil Nadu and Kerala markets. Prakash B. Rao, Vice-President, Cochin Oil Merchants Association (COMA), said the auctioned copra from the hill shrine had started arriving in the terminal markets of the two States at a discounted price of Rs 500 per quintal than the normal copra prices. The market received 120 tonnes last week and this is likely to impact prices in the short term, he said. According to Rao, the lean season for coconut oil has started and will continue till February-end, affecting raw material availability. There is a remote possibility of a further rise in prices as sales in North India have dropped due to the continuing cold wave conditions. The weather is keeping buyers and corporate away from the market, he said. (Source: Business Line)

Icrisat-led consortium in pact with EU nations

India and European Union have signed a Rs 80-crore (about 12 million ) agreement to recycle industrial and domestic waste water to provide water to irrigation purposes. Indian corporates such as SABMiller and Jain Irrigation too are partners in the four-year research oriented project. Besides, the two sides would work on other products that come out of waste water and also on the efficient use of water under the Water4Crops-India project. From India, the International Crops Research Institute for the Semi-Arid Tropics (Icrisat) will lead the consortium with 34 member companies, universities and research organisations. The Union Department of Bio Technology (DBT) and the EU team would put in 6 million each for the project, Shailja Vaidya Gupta, Director of International Cooperation (DBT, Govt of India), said. The Indian consortium includes The Energy Research Institute (TERI), National Environmental Engineering Research Institute (NEERI), Euro India Research Centre and M S Swaminathan Research Foundation. (Source:
Business Line)

Lower open sale quota fails to impact sugar prices

Sugar prices rule steady with minor changes on Tuesday on lack of demand. Government previous day reduce the non-levy quota released for the month of December, 2012 to March, 2013 to 66.50 lakh tones instead of 68.00 lakh tones but it fails to affect the sentiments in physical markets. Domestic futures market has reacted positively by showing improvement of Rs10-Rs12 till noon said sources. Sources said Government has reduced the non levy quota for December March by 1.50 lakh tones to 66.50 lakh tones but that is also sufficient to meet the domestic demand. After Diwali and Christmas festivals retail and bulk consumer demand cooled down sharply. Other side sugar production this year is also expected higher than local demand. Currently sugar production is on pick level and producers are continuously selling in local markets. (Source: Business Line)

Potato prices in Bengal continue to decline on rising inflows

Potato prices in West Bengal dipped by about Rs 50-100 a quintal over the weekend on improved supply of the tuber. Taking into account this current dip, potato prices have come down by about Rs 150-200 in the last one month. The drop is primarily on account of the arrival of the new crop including the early varieties Pokraj and S6. Wholesale price of potato was ruling around Rs 500-550 a quintal on Monday, down from Rs 600-650 about two weeks ago, said Ram Pada Pal, President of West Bengal Cold Storage Association. The sowing of the crop in Bengal is higher by about 4-5 per cent this year. Though it is difficult to estimate the exact production of the crop, however, initial estimates suggest that the State might produce close to one crore tonne of potatoes this year, compared to 85 lakh tonne in 2011-12. (Source: Economic Times)

Chana glut on cards on projections of higher output

Chana traded low amid sluggish demand and arrival of new chana in local mandis, albeit sparingly. Amid prospect of bumper crop output this year and bumper yield of chana in Australia and Canada, chana prices in the domestic market will likely to witness a fall of 10-12% during the months of February and March, said a trader. With 5.4% rise in sowing area, chana output in the country this year is expected to be around 80 lakh tonnes as against 75.8 lakh tonnes last year. Added to this, bumper yield in chana in countries such as Australia, Canada and Tanzania would also add to bearish sentiment in chana in the coming days. (Source: Business Line)

Rice procurement up 5% at 22.33 million tonnes

Rice procurement by Government agencies has crossed the half-waymark of the targeted 40 million tonnes (mt) for the kharif marketing season 2012-13 starting October. Procurement as of end-January stood at 22.33 mt, up by 5 per cent over that in the corresponding period last year at 21.17 mt. Procurement has been higher in Punjab, Haryana, Chhattisgarh and Odisha, while States such as Andhra Pradesh and Uttar Pradesh have registered a decline. Procurement of paddy by the State agencies has been completed in the major rice growing States with the exception of Andhra Pradesh, Bihar and Odisha. Rice stocks in the Central Pool as on January 1 stood at 32.22 million tonnes, more than twice the buffer and strategic reserves of 13.8 million tonnes required at this point in time. (Source: Business Line)

Minimal relief coming to U.S. Plains drought area

Dry weather continues in the far western portion of the drought-stricken U.S. Plains while crop-friendly rainfall is moving into the west-central and southeast Midwest, an agricultural meteorologist said on Tuesday. "There will be a lot of rain in the Midwest and northern Delta today and tomorrow and the rain will spread into the southeast Plains eastern Kansas and eastern Oklahoma," said Don Keeney, a meteorologist for MDA EarthSat Weather. Keeney said there should be some light snowfall in North Central Kansas and South Central Nebraska on Tuesday then it will turn dry for the rest of the week in the balance of the Midwest and Plains. Another cold snap is poised to move into the U.S. Midwest and Plains late in the week, dropping temperatures to zero (degrees Fahrenheit) in some areas but "there should be no threat of winterkill damage," Keeney said. (Source: Reuters)

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Commodities Daily Report

Wednesday| January 30, 2013

Agricultural Commodities
Chana
Chana futures corrected sharply yesterday on account of long liquidation due to weak demand. Reports of extreme cold and ground frost in north India may hamper chana cop yield. The spot as well as the the Futures settled 0.74% and 1.53% lower on Tuesday. Although chana prices witnessed 17% gains in 2012 on the back of lower availability, sentiments prices remained under downside pressure during the period December 2012 till mid January 2013 on account of continuous supplies of imported chana from Australia coupled with higher output expectations.

Market Highlights
Unit Rs/qtl Rs/qtl Last 3921 3550 Prev day -0.74 -1.53

as on Jan 29, 2013 % change WoW MoM -0.41 -0.07 -0.73 -6.73 YoY 22.05 14.74

Chana Spot - NCDEX (Delhi) Chana- NCDEX Apr'13 Futures

Source: Reuters

Sowing progress
Total pulses acreage as on 18th Jan 2013 stood at 1142.33 lakh ha, down by 0.6% yoy. As on 11th Jan 2013, pulses acreage was up by 0.4%. Chana sowing is almost complete and acreage so far is at 91.9 lakh ha, up by 3.4% as on 18th Jan. Chana acreage is marginally higher by 3% this year in Rajasthan at 14.80 lakh ha, In Maharashtra, Chana acreage is up at 10.92 lakh ha as on 11th Jan 2013 vs normal area of 10.6 lakh ha and 2012 area of 7.04 lakh ha. While in AP it is up at 7.14 lakh ha as on 11th Jan 2013, up by 26%. (Source: State farm dept)

Technical Chart - Chana

NCDEX April contract

Demand supply fundamentals

Although Farm ministry has targeted 7.9 mn tn Chana output for 2012-13 season, higher compared to 7.58 mn tn in 2011-12, the final output would depend on the weather conditions in the major growing regions. Chana fresh crop arrivals have started in Karnataka, Andhra Pradesh and in small quantities in Maharashtra too. However, arrival pressure will built up February onwards when harvesting commence in MP. According to the first advance estimates of 2012-13 season, kharif pulses output is estimated lower by 14.6% at 5.26 million tonnes compared with 6.16 mn tn last year. The Commission for Agriculture Costs and Prices (CACP) has suggested 10 per cent import duty on pulses to encourage domestic production. in the first six months of the new fiscal that is from April to September this year, imports were an estimated 12 lakh tonnes. Assocham estimates, 21 mn tn of pulses demand in 2012-13 and is likely to reach at 21.42 mn tn in 2013-14 and 21.91 MT in 2014-15. (Source: Agriwatch).
Source: Telequote

Technical Outlook
Contract Chana Apr Futures Unit Rs./qtl Support

valid for Jan 30, 2013 Resistance 3580-3615

3505-3535

Trade Scenario
In Australia, total chickpea production in 201213 is estimated to have increased to a record of around 746000 tones as compared with 485000 tons in 2011-12. India imports Chana mainly from Australia and Canada and higher availability in these countries at comparatively cheaper rates is seen boosting imports of Chana to meet the domestic shortfall.

Outlook
Chana Futures may open lower extending previous sessions losses. However, prices may recover from lower levels on account of adverse weather conditions in North India. Although prices may remain firm in the near term, arrival pressure will cap sharp upside in the short term.

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Commodities Daily Report

Wednesday| January 30, 2013

Agricultural Commodities
Sugar
Sugar futures gained from lower levels yesterday on account of short coverings and settled 0.16% higher. However, prices in the spot remained lower on poor demand and comparatively higher supplies and settled marginally lower by 0.12% on Tuesday. There are reports that drought in parts of Maharashtra and Karnataka has hurt fresh sugarcane plantings, which may affect cane availability for sugar year 2013-14 starting October. Although this will have long term implications, outlook for short term remains bleak amid sufficient supplies. Government has allocated total 70 lac tons of non-levy sugar quota for Dec-March 2012-13 period which is higher from 59.5 lac tons last year. Raw sugar futures on ICE as well as Liffe white sugar corrected sharply on Tuesday after witnessing some short coverings in the preceding session and settled lower by 1.33% and 1.87% respectively. A supply glut situation on the back of a sugar surplus for the third consecutive year has led to a sharp downside in the prices. Currently the prices are trading around 2 year lows.

Market Highlights
Unit Sugar Spot- NCDEX (Kolhapur) Sugar M- NCDEX Feb'13 Futures Rs/qtl Last 3246

as on Jan 29, 2013 % Change Prev. day WoW -0.12 -0.63 MoM -0.82 YoY 11.32

Rs/qtl

3196

0.16

-1.90

-1.45

12.02

Source: Reuters

International Prices
Unit Sugar No 5- LiffeMar'13 Futures Sugar No 11-ICE Mar '13 Futures $/tonne $/tonne Last 487.8 408.44

as on Jan 29, 2013 % Change Prev day WoW -1.33 -1.87 0.95 1.43 MoM -6.62 -5.50 YoY -22.60 -22.25

.Source: Reuters

Domestic Production and Exports

Mills in the country have produced 7.96 mln tn sugar in the first three months of the season, up nearly 2.5% a year ago. In Maharashtra, the largest sugar producer in the country, 155 mills are operational and have produced 1.88 mln tn sugar till Dec 15, compared with 1.83 mln produced a year ago by 165 mills. In Uttar Pradesh, the second largest sugar producer in the country, total output as on Dec 15 was 1.03 mln tn, about 20% lower on year, as some mills in the eastern part of the state are still to commence cane crushing. The producers body has estimated sugar output lower at 24 mn tn, down by 2mn tn compared to the current year. Industry body ISMA has estimated 6.5 mn tn stocks for the new season beginning October 01, 2012 compared to 5.5 mn tn year ago. India may export 1.5 mn tn sugar in 2012-13. With the opening stocks of 6.5 mn tn, domestic Sugar supplies are estimated at 30.5 mn tn against the domestic consumption of around 22. 5mln tn for 2012-13.
Source: Telequote

Technical Chart - Sugar

NCDEX Feb contract

Technical Outlook
Contract Sugar Feb NCDEX Futures Unit Rs./qtl Support

valid for Jan 30, 2013 Resistance 3207-3217

Global Sugar Updates

According to the Brazil Agriculture Ministry, The 2012/13 cane crush was at 531.35 million tonnes as of Dec. 31, up from 491.16 million tonnes crushed the previous year. The 2013/14 crush will likely surpass the current one. Brazil's main center-south cane crop will produce between 580 million and 590 million tonnes of sugar cane in 2013/14. Brazil will likely favor ethanol production over sugar from the 2013/14 cane crop. The 2012/13 sugar crop in Thailand, the world's second-biggest exporter, could drop below a forecast 9.4 million tonnes due to lower-thanexpected yield. The crushing season started on Nov. 15 and 1.9 million tonnes of sugar has been produced so far (Source: Reuters)
3177-3187

Outlook
Sugar Futures is expected to trade with negative bias today on account of higher supplies and poor demand in the domestic markets. However, sharp downside may be capped on reports of lower cane plantings for next season in some parts of Maharashtra and Karnataka. Further, it is expected that government will take some measure to control prices, which are below the cost of production levels, from falling further so as to protect the interest of the millers.

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Commodities Daily Report

Wednesday| January 30, 2013

Agricultural Commodities
Oilseeds
Soybean: Soybean traded with a positive bias yesterday and settled
0.26% higher. However The spot settled lower by 0.66%. Dwindling supplies in the domestic markets have led to an increase in the prices over the last fortnight. Arrivals in the domestic markets declined to 1.5 lakh bags, while demand is comparatively lower amid crushing disparity. Soy meal exports fell by 34% in December to 5.10 lakh tn, according to SOPA. The country had exported 7,78,382 tn in December 2011. During the first three months of the current oil year (Oct-Sep), exports declined by 27% to 10.78 lakh tn.

Market Highlights
Unit Soybean Spot- NCDEX (Indore) Soybean- NCDEX Feb '13 Futures Ref Soy oil SpotNCDEX(Indore) Ref Soy oil- NCDEX Feb '13 Futures Rs/qtl Rs/qtl Rs/10 kgs Rs/10 kgs Last 3311 3255 754.4 725.5

as on Jan 29, 2013 % Change Prev day -0.66 0.26 -0.44 0.02 WoW 1.25 -0.58 0.33 -0.37 MoM 0.39 0.40 6.09 3.00 YoY 32.81 30.91 8.15 5.10

International Markets
Soybean futures on the CBOT settled 0.28% higher on Tuesday on the back on concerns about rains in Argentina. Soybean prices have gained on reports of downward revision in Argentina soy crop forecast by oil world. The weather conditions in Argentina in coming weeks will determine further price trend in Soybean. Oil World forecasts Argentinas 2012-13 harvest at 52.0 mn tn, down from 53 mn tn in December 2012, however, it is still higher compared with 39 mn tn produced in 2011-12 season. According to the USDA monthly crop report, Brazil will produce a record 82.5 mn tn of soybeans in 2012-13 due to hefty expansion in acreage and improving yield prospects. With the harvest just beginning in some areas, Brazil's planted area will likely increase by 9.2 percent to 27.34 mn ha.

Source: Reuters

as on Jan 29, 2013 International Prices Soybean- CBOTMar'13 Futures Soybean Oil - CBOTMar'13 Futures Unit USc/ Bushel USc/lbs Last 1452 51.71 Prev day 0.28 -0.35 WoW 0.00 -1.37 MoM 2.33 7.08
Source: Reuters

YoY 21.08 1.65

Crude Palm Oil

as on Jan 29, 2013 % Change Prev day WoW 0.84 -0.50 1.87 -1.74

Unit
CPO-Bursa Malaysia Feb '13 Contract CPO-MCX- Jan '13 Futures

Last 2402 434.6

MoM 4.48 3.85

YoY -21.89 -15.81

Refined Soy Oil: Ref soy oil settled marginally higher by 0.02%
while, CPO settled 0.35% lower. India's palm oil imports rose 27.4% on month at 783,091 tn in December, boosted mainly by poor domestic supply of alternatives and attractive overseas prices due to record stocks in key supplier Malaysia. To reduce imports and protect domestic industries, govt lifted duty on crude palm oil from 0 % to 2.5 % and also stated that the base import price on crude palm oil which is currently $447 per ton may be reviewed fortnightly. Exports of Malaysian palm oil products for Jan. 1-20 fell 19.9 percent to 813,778 tonnes compared with 1,015,440 tonnes shipped during Dec. 1-20, cargo surveyor Societe Generale de Surveillance said on Monday.

MYR/Tonne Rs/10 kg

Source: Reuters

RM Seed
Unit RM Seed SpotNCDEX (Jaipur) RM Seed- NCDEX Apr'13 Futures Rs/100 kgs Rs/100 kgs Last 4070 3423 Prev day -3.33 -0.35

as on Jan 29, 2013 WoW -1.03 -2.31 MoM -4.24 -18.29

Source: Reuters

YoY 15.71 3.07

Technical Chart Soybean

NCDEX Feb contract

Rape/mustard Seed: Mustard seed Futures continued to trade

lower yesterday on account of higher sowing and settled 0.35% lower on Monday. Extreme cold in north India supported prices last week. Rabi oilseeds sowing are now up by 2.23% at 8.54 mn ha as of Jan. 18. Arrivals are expected to commence in February and thus no major upside in the prices is seen if weather condition improve in the coming days. Rapeseed area stood at 6.7 mn ha as of Jan. 18, up by 2.8% from a year ago.

Outlook
Soybean complex may recover from lower levels due to dwindling supplies in the domestic markets. Positive international markets may also support prices. Mustard seed prices may correct tracking higher sowing of oilseeds. However, prices may find support at lower levels on reports of ground frost in Rajasthan which may hamper the mustard crop yield. CPO may recover from lower levels due to covering of short positions.

Source: Telequote

Technical Outlook
Contract Soy Oil Feb NCDEX Futures Soybean NCDEX Feb Futures RM Seed NCDEX Apr Futures CPO MCX Jan Futures Unit Rs./qtl Rs./qtl Rs./qtl Rs./qtl

valid for Jan 30, 2013 Support 720-723 3220-3240 3390-3410 431-434 Resistance 729-731 3270-3300 3440-3460 441-445

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Commodities Daily Report

Wednesday| January 30, 2013

Agricultural Commodities
Black Pepper
Pepper Futures opened lower extending previous days losses. However, prices recovered towards the end on account of low stocks and thin supplies. There is a delay in harvesting due to lack of skilled labourers. Good winter demand also supported the prices. Prices have also increased due to arrivals of good quality pepper from Kerala. Earlier, prices had corrected as Food Safety and Standards Authority of India sealed the entire quantity of pepper stored in six warehouses in Kerala of about 8,000 tonnes. Harvesting of the fresh crop has commenced and is expected to gain momentum in the coming days. However, winter demand coupled with low stocks in the domestic markets has supported prices at lower levels. Exports demand for Indian pepper in the international markets is also weak due to price parity. The Spot settled lower by 0.07% while the Futures settled 1.07% higher on Tuesday. Spices Board has announced plans to import high yielding Madagascar variety that was behind the record productivity in Vietnam. It could raise productivity of Indian pepper from 2,000 kg/ha to 7,000 kg/ha. Pepper prices in the international market are being quoted at $8,000/tn(C&F Europe). Vietnam, Malaysia and Indonesia Austa variety are quoted at $7,000/tn and Brazil black pepper is quoted at $6,600/tn.

Market Highlights
Unit Pepper SpotNCDEX (Kochi) Pepper- NCDEX Feb'13 Futures Rs/qtl Rs/qtl Last 39766 37715 % Change Prev day -0.07 1.07

as on Jan 29, 2013 WoW 2.06 1.66 MoM 5.34 10.89 YoY 24.42 20.86

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart Black Pepper

NCDEX Feb contract

Exports and Imports

According to Spices Board of India, exports of pepper in April 2012 fell by 47% and stood at 1,200 tonnes as compared to 2,266 tonnes in April 2011. India imported 1,848 tonnes of pepper till March 2012 and has become the third country to import such large quantity after UAE and Singapore. (Source: Agriwatch) According to Vietnam Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development (MARD) exports of pepper during Jan-Oct 2012 stood at 102,340 mt, lower by 12% as compared to 1,15,780 mt in the same period last year. Total exports in 2012 are forecasted at around 1,10,000 tonnes. Pepper imports by U.S. the largest consumer of the spice declined 26% during January-September 2012 period to 41,923 tn as compared to 52,489 tn in the same period previous year. Exports from Indonesia posted significant decrease of 42% as compared to previous year. Exports stood at 36,500 tonnes as compared to 62,599 tonnes in the last year. Brazil exported 25,900 tn pepper during Jan-Nov 2012, around 20% lower compared with 32,650 tn in the same period last year. Exports from Malaysia 8,300 tn pepper during Jan-Oct 2012, lower by 30% last year while exports in October stood at 1,077 mt in.

Source: Telequote

Technical Outlook
Contract Black Pepper NCDEX Feb Futures Unit Rs/qtl

valid for Jan 30, 2013 Support 37100-37480 Resistance 38180-38630

Production and Arrivals

The arrivals in the spot market were reported at 37 tonnes while off takes were reported at 37 tonnes on Tuesday. As per IPC, Global pepper production in 2012 is projected at 3.27 lk tn, up compared with 3.18 lk tn in 2011. Production for 2013 is projected at 316832 tn. Indonesian pepper output is expected to rise by 24% and in Vietnam by 10%. According to previous estimates, pepper output in Vietnam is estimated to be 1 lakh tonne in 2012 as compared to 1.1 lakh tonne in 2011. Brazil is also expected to produce 22,000 tn this year. Domestic consumption of Pepper in the world is expected to grow by 3.03% to 1.25 lakh tonnes while exports are likely to grow by 1.48% to 2.46 lakh tonnes in 2012. (Source: Pepper trade board) Pepper production in 2012-13 is expected around 60,000-63,000 tonnes. Currently, pepper is in the fruit formation stage in Kerala.

Outlook
Pepper may recover from lower levels on back of low stocks coupled with thin arrivals. Winter buying demand may also support prices. However, higher output expectations may cap sharp upside. FSSAIs sealing of huge quantity of pepper and FMCs probe into complaints against price movement may also pressurize the prices.

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Commodities Daily Report

Wednesday| January 30, 2013

Agricultural Commodities
Jeera
Jeera Futures traded on a weak note yesterday hitting fresh contract lows. However, prices recovered towards the end on account of short coverings. Prices have corrected sharply tracking higher sowing figures. Higher sowing as well as conducive weather in Gujarat, the main jeera growing region have pressurized prices. Sowing is complete. According to Gujarat State Agri Dept. sowing in Gujarat is reported at 3.244 lakh ha till Jan, 2013 compared with 3.64 lakh ha last year. In Rajasthan, sowing is expected to increase by 10-15%. The spot as well as the Futures settled 0.86% and 0.06% lower on Tuesday. According to markets sources about 75% exports target has already been achieved due to a supply crunch in the global markets. Supply concerns from Syria and Turkey still exists. Expectations are that export orders may still be diverted to India from the international markets due to lack of supplies from Syria on back of the ongoing civil war. Production in Syria and Turkey is being reported around 17,000 tonnes and around 4,000-5,000 tonnes, lesser than expectations. Jeera prices of Indian origin are being offered in the international market at $2,900 tn (c&f) while Syria and Turkey are not offering. Carryover stocks of Jeera in the domestic market is expected to be around 5-6 lakh bags.

Market Highlights
Unit Jeera Spot- NCDEX (Unjha) Jeera- NCDEX Mar '13 Futures Rs/qtl Rs/qtl Last 13899 13370 Prev day -0.86 -0.06

as on Jan 29, 2013 % Change WoW -2.73 -2.34 MoM -6.47 -9.11 YoY -12.17 -9.93

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart Jeera

NCDEX March contract

Production, Arrivals and Exports

Arrivals in Unjha were reported at 2,750 tn on Tuesday. Production of Jeera in 2011-12 is expected around 40 lakh bags as against 29 lakh bags in 2010-11 (55 kgs each). According to Spices Board of India, exports of Jeera in April 2012 stood at 2,500 tonnes as compared to 2,369 tonnes in April 2011, an increase of 6%.

Source: Telequote

Market Highlights
Prev day -0.54 -0.53

as on Jan 29, 2013 % Change

Outlook
Jeera is expected to continue to trade lower. Higher sowing figures coupled with conducive weather in Gujarat may pressurize prices. However, export demand at lower levels may support prices. Demand from domestic traders and millers at lower levels may also support prices. In the medium term, prices are likely to stay firm as Syria and Turkey have stopped shipments.
Turmeric SpotNCDEX (N'zmbad) Turmeric- NCDEX Apr '13 Futures

Unit Rs/qtl Rs/qtl

Last 5398 6018

WoW -2.22 -3.71

MoM -2.57 -8.54

YoY 12.18 31.51

Turmeric
Turmeric Futures traded with a negative bias yesterday on account of sluggish export demand. Huge carryover stocks have also pressurized prices over the last few days. Good demand from upcountry market has supported the prices. Lower production estimates have also supported the prices. There are reports of some crop damage in Erode region. Expectations are that production may be lower by 40-50%. Production is expected around 55 lakh bags. It is estimated that next years carryover stocks would be around 10 lakh bags. There are reports that Turmeric Farmers Association of India have decided to fix their own MSP of Rs.10000/qtl. The Spot as well as the Futures settled 0.54% and 0.53% lower on Tuesday.

Technical Chart Turmeric

NCDEX April contract

Production, Arrivals and Exports

Arrivals in Erode and Nizamabad mandi stood at 4,000 bags and 3,000 bags respectively on Tuesday. Turmeric production in 2012-13 is expected around 55 lakh bags. Production in 2011-12 is projected at historical high of 10.62 lakh tn. According to Spices Board of India, exports of Turmeric in April 2012 increased by 1% at 7,300 tn as compared to 7,230 tn in April 2011. Outlook Turmeric is expected to continue to trade with a negative bias today as higher carryover stocks and weak overseas demand is expected to pressurize prices. However, lower output concerns coupled with demand from stockists may support prices at lower levels.
.

Source: Telequote

Technical Outlook
Unit Jeera NCDEX March Futures Turmeric NCDEX April Futures Rs/qtl Rs/qtl

Valid for Jan 30, 2013

Support 13220-13290 5920-5960 Resistance 13425-13490 6070-6110

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Commodities Daily Report

Wednesday| January 30, 2013

Agricultural Commodities
Kapas
NCDEX Kapas & MCX Cotton recovered from lower levels and settled 1.06% and 1.16% higher. Upward revisions in downward revision in the output estimates had created positive market sentiments last week. The Cotton Advisory Board, which met in Mumbai on Wednesday, has estimated cotton production this season (Oct 2012 to Sep 2013) will be 330 lakh bales against the previous estimates in October at 334 lakh bales. Also, exports and domestic consumption has been revised upward to 253 and 80 lakh bales respectively from 250 and 70 lakh bales estimated earlier. As on January 9 this year, nearly 38 lakh bales were registered for exports. Cotton Association of India (CAI) expects output to be around 353 lakh bales in 2012-13. According to the data released by Cotton Corporation of India, Supplies until Jan 13 are down 6.3 percent to 12.5 mn bales of 170 kg each, down from 12.9 mn bales a year earlier. Arrivals were down by 10 percent as th on 16 Dec. ICE Cotton traded on a bullish note and settled 1.65% higher on Monday. Prices have traded on a bullish note hitting a fresh 8 month high last week on back of index buying. Hopes of demand from China led to a sharp increase over the week. Concerns about the quality of cotton to be released by China also supported the prices.

Market Highlights
Unit Rs/20 kgs Rs/Bale Last 904.5 16500

as on Jan 29, 2013 % Change Prev. day WoW 1.06 -0.28 1.16 1.29 MoM -7.75 1.29 YoY #N/A -3.57

NCDEX Kapas Apr Futures MCX Cotton Futures

Source: Reuters

International Prices
ICE Cotton Cot look A Index Unit USc/Lbs Last 82.39 81.35

as on Jan 29, 2013 % Change Prev day WoW 1.65 3.08 0.00 0.00 MoM 8.39 0.00 YoY -11.65 -29.20

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart - Kapas

NCDEX April contract

Domestic Production and Consumption

According to Cotton Advisory Boards (CAB) estimates (23 Jan 2013) for 2012-13 season that commenced in October, domestic cotton production is pegged 330 lakh bales, down from the previous years estimates of 353 lakh bales. However, higher exports and domestic consumption can be met through revised higher opening stocks of 40 lakh bales and higher imports. After witnessing record exports in 2011-12 season, Indian exports could witness significant fall this season on the back of lower availability along with unattractive domestic cotton prices. CAB estimates cotton exports at 80 lakh bales this season, compared with 128.8 lakh bales last year.
Source: Telequote
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Technical Chart - Cotton

MCX Feb contract

Global Cotton Updates

China, the world's biggest buyer of cotton, began selling a tiny fraction of its massive stockpile of the fibre on Monday, in a move to ease domestic supply shortages. Beijing has been building a strategic stockpile of cotton since 2011, paying above global prices to support its farmers, but the policy has hurt China's textile mills, which have been struggling with tight supplies, and high prices, at home. Many in the industry were expecting China to reward mills that buy state reserves with new import quotas enabling them to buy cheaper overseas supplies. But no such deal was announced. Brazils 2012-13 cotton production forecast at 6.3 million bales, down 27 percent from 2011/12 production now estimated at 8.6 million bales. (USDA attach report)
Source: Telequote

Technical Outlook
Contract Kapas NCDEX April Futures Cotton MCX Feb Futures Unit Rs/20 kgs Rs/bale

valid for Jan 30, 2013 Support 890-898 16650-16720 Resistance 908-915 16940-17030

Outlook
Cotton prices may trade sideways with a positive bias today. Higher output expectations by Cotton Association of India have turned the sentiments negative for the cotton prices. However, downside may be limited as farmers may not sell their stocks at lower prices. Reports that the Government may purchase cotton from farmers to avoid distress sales may also support prices. Also, anticipated export demand from the neighboring countries may support prices.

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