Confidence Interval Example Questions MATH 533

Note: Be sure to visit my website at www.iecconline.net/browna/statistics.htm for demonstrations of confidence intervals using Minitab. Example 1. A random sample of 40 students at Brown University found that students work an average of 26 hours per week at either a part-time or full-time job. The standard deviation of the population is estimated at 8 hours. What is a 98% confidence interval for the true average number of hours worked by all students at Brown University? Solution: We are looking for a 98% confidence interval to estimate the population mean. Since the population standard deviation is known, we can use the Standard Normal Distribution. Now, for a 98% confidence interval, the z-value =2.33. Noting that the sample mean is 26, the population standard deviation is 8 and the sample size is 40, we find 8 =xz = 26 2.33 = 26 2.94724 n 40 We are 98% confident that the true mean hours of work for all students at Brown University is between 23.05 and 28.94 hours. Example 2. A student at Brown University claims that the average Brown student works more than 30 hours per week, on average. Use the results of Example 1 to determine whether or not you agree with this student. Solution: We do not agree with the student. We are 98% confident that the true mean of all students is between 23.05 and 28.94 hours per week. Thus, we do not think the mean is above 30 hours per week. Example 3. A different student at Brown University claims that the average Brown student works 24 hours per week, on average. Use the results of Example 1 to determine whether or not you agree with this student. Solution: We think this student could be correct. The students claim of 24 hours per week is possibly the true population mean because it falls within our 98% confidence interval. (Note: We cant really prove the student is correct without actually polling every student at Brown University. But, since this students claim is within the confidence interval, we cant say the student is wrong. So, we end up supporting the student because we cant say he/she is wrong!) Example 4. A meteorologist is researching tornadoes and wants to estimate the true mean speed of all tornadoes. She samples and accurately measures the speed of 25

tornadoes in central Oklahoma. The mean speed was calculated to be 34.5 MPH with a standard deviation of 9.4 MPH. What is a 95% confidence interval for the true mean speed of all tornadoes? Solution: We are looking for a 95% confidence interval for the population mean (of all tornadoes). Note that we DO NOT know the population standard deviation and the sample size is small with n = 25. (We know only the sample standard deviation is 9.4.) Thus, we must use the t-distribution. (Important Note: When working with confidence intervals for population means, we use the z-distribution (also called the Standard Normal Distribution) if the populatin standard deviation is known or if the sample size is greater than 30. If the population standard deviation is not known and the sample size is less than 30, we must use the t-distribution.) For a 95% confidence interval with degrees of freedom = 24 (from n-1=25-1=24), the tvalue is 2.064. We also know the sample mean is 34.5, the sample standard deviation is 9.4 and the sample size is 25. Then, = x t s n = 34.5 2.064 9.4 25 = 34.5 3.88032 .

That is, we are 95% confident that the true mean speed of all tornadoes is between 30.62 and 38.38 MPH. Example 5. A drag racer wants to estimate the average number of laps he can go on one set of tires. He wishes to be accurate to within 1.5 laps. From a previous study he knows that the population standard deviation is 5 laps. How many sets of tires must he test if he wants to be 95% confident of finding the true mean? Solution: We want to determine sample size for a population mean confidence interval. For 95% confidence interval, we know z-value = 1.96. From the question, we know desired accuracy = E = 1.5 and that the population standard deviation is 5. z 1.96 5 2 Then, n = = = 6.5333333 = 42.6844 E 1.5 So, the racer should test 43 sets of tires to achieve the desired accuracy. (Note that we always round up. If the formula had given 42.1111, we still would round up to 43 sets of tires.) Note: If the population standard deviation was NOT known, we would need to replace z with t, and sigma with s in the formula. In this case, we would need a preliminary sample to calculate a sample standard deviation (s). Then, the t-value would have degrees of freedom = n 1, where n is the size of the preliminary sample.
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Example 6. A social worker wants to determine the percentage of pregnant teens that smoke during pregnancy. She randomly selects 95 pregnant teens and finds that 28 smoke. What is a 95% confidence interval for the true proportion of all pregnant teens that smoke? Solution: For this sample, the sample size is 95 and we find 28 with the characteristic 28 = 0.29473684 0.29 and q = 1 p = 0.71 . Since np=28 and were studying. So, p = 95 nq=67, we can use the z-value. (Remember that both np and nq must be above 5.) For a 95% confidence interval, the z-value is 1.96 and we get p (1 p ) 0.29 0.71 p= pz = 0.29 1.96 = 0.29 0.091 . n 95 So, we are 95% confident that the true proportion of pregnant teens that smoke is between 0.199 and 0.381. (Could also write this as 19.9% and 38.1%.) Example 7. The social worker above wants to repeat her survey but this time with a maximum error of 3% when using the 95% confidence interval. How many pregnant teens must she sample? Use the result of the first survey to estimate the sample proportion. Solution: We are looking for a sample size for a population proportion confidence interval. In this example, the desired accuracy = E = 0.03. Using the information from Example 6, we see z 1.96 n = p (1 p ) = 0.29 0.71 = 878.87 . E 0.03 So, the social worker should select a sample size of 879 pregnant teens. (Note: If the previous study is not used, we must use p = 0.50 for a sample size of 1.96 n = 0.5 0.5 = 1067.11111 or 1068.) 0.03 Example 8. A local television station wants to perform a survey of local viewers to determine the true proportion that watch their 5 p.m. newscast. The station will use a 95% confidence interval. If they want to be accurate within 2.5% of the true proportion, how many local viewers should they survey? Solution: We are looking for a sample size for a population proportion confidence interval. In this example, the desired accuracy = E =0.025. For a 95% confidence
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interval, the z-value is 1.96. Since we have no previous study or estimate of p-hat, we 1.96 must use p = 0.50 for a sample size of n = 0.5 0.5 = 1536.64 or 1537. 0.025 That is, the television station should sample 1537 local viewers to obtain the desired accuracy. Example 9. A researcher wants to estimate the mean and standard deviation for the weight of all wolverines living inside Glacier National Park in Montana. Since wolverines are difficult to sample, she only captures, tests, and releases 15 of them. Use a 95% confidence interval to estimate the true mean weight of all wolverines. The weights of the 15 captured wolverines are listed below: 39 51 52 46 46 38 43 37 58 41 24 47 35 39 41
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Solution: From the data, we calculate the sample mean = 42.47 pounds and the sample standard deviation = 8.13 pounds. Since we do not know the population standard deviation and the sample size is less than 30, we must use the t-distribution. For a 95% confidence interval with degrees of freedom = 14 (from n-1=15-1=14), the tvalue is 2.145. s 8.13 = 42.47 2.145 = 42.47 4.50 . Then, = x t n 15 That is, we are 95% confident that the true mean weight of all wolverines in Glacier National Park is between 37.97 and 46.97 pounds.