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Volume 9, Issue 2 February 2013

The State of Our Union

President Obama has enjoyed an uptick in his approval rating at the beginning of his second term, putting him in a strong position, in the words of the Pew Research Center. His 49 percent average approval rating for his first term in Gallups data was one of the lowest for first-term presidents. Most presidents lose ground in their second term. In Gallups 69-year trend, only Ronald Reagan and Bill Clinton are exceptions. Gallup notes that highly polarized ratings are becoming the norm. A 76-point gap separated Democrats and Republicans in the fourth year of George W. Bushs and Barack Obamas presidencies. Congress averaged a 15 percent approval rating in 2012, the lowest in the 38-year history of the question. Americans feel more optimistic about the national economy, though those ratings are far from robust.
Q: Do you . . . ? Approve of the job President Obama is doing handling the presidency (yearly average) 2009 2010 2011 2012 57% 47 44 48 Q: All in all, do you think . . . ? Things in the nation are headed in the right direction January 2009 26% January 2013 35
Source: NBC/Wall Street Journal, latest that of January 2013.

Source: Gallup, latest that of JanuaryDecember 2012.

Q: How satisfied are you . . . ? Very/Somewhat satisfied with the state of the US economy today January 2009 10% January 2013 27
Source: NBC/Wall Street Journal, latest that of January 2013.

2009 2012

Gap between Democrats and Republicans on approval of the Obama presidency 65 points 76 points

Source: Gallup, latest that of January 2012January 2013.

Q: When it comes to . . . ? Very/Somewhat satisfied with your own financial situation today January 2009 56% January 2013 55
Source: NBC/Wall Street Journal, latest that of January 2013.

Q: Do you . . . ? Approve of the way Congress is handling its job 2012 (average) 15% January 2013 14
Source: Gallup, January 2013.

Q: Does Barack Obama impress you as . . . ? Stands up for what he believes in A good communicator Trustworthy Cares about people like me A strong leader Able to get things done
Source: Pew Research Center, January 2013.

82% 76 66 66 59 57

Index of Consumer Sentiment January 2009 January 2013

Source: Reuters/University of Michigan.

61.2 73.8

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In a January 2013 Gallup poll, 18 percent volunteered government dysfunction as the top problem facing the country, a response Gallup has not seen since the Watergate years.* Dissatisfaction with both parties is high, but particularly so with the GOP. Were most satisfied with the nations military strength and preparedness and least satisfied with the state of the economy. Q: What do you think is . . . ? Most important problem facing the country today Economy 21% Deficit 20 Dissatisfaction with government 18 Unemployment 16 Lack of money 5
Note: Top five responses shown. Source: Gallup, January 2013.

Q: In politics today, do you consider yourself a . . . ? 2009 Republican or lean to the Republican Party Democrat or lean to the Democratic Party 37% 50.1 2012 39.1% 48.7

Note: Yearly averages. Source: Pew Research Center, latest that of 2012.

Q: Now Im going to ready you the names of several public figures and groups and Id like you to rate your feelings toward each one . . . Feelings are Positive Negative Democratic Party February 2009 January 2013 49% 44 31% 38 Republican Party February 2009 January 2013 Feelings are Positive Negative 25% 26 47% 49

Source: NBC/Wall Street Journal, latest that of January 2013.

Q: Next, wed like to know how you feel about the state of the nation in each of the following areas. For each one, please say whether you are . . . ? Very/Somewhat satisfied with The nations military strength and preparedness The nations security from terrorism The quality of the environment The state of race relations The acceptance of homosexuality The nations policy regarding the abortion issue The role the US plays in world affairs The nations laws or policies on guns The Social Security and Medicare systems The quality of public education The availability of affordable health care The nations energy policies The level of immigration into the country today The amount Americans pay in federal taxes The nations efforts to deal with poverty and homelessness The state of the nations economy
Source: Gallup, January 2013. Note: *Gallup notes that coding methods for this question have changed.

74% 67 57 50 49 44 44 43 43 41 40 37 36 36 25 20

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The State of the Nations Businesses

While Americans remain confident in small businesses, their confidence in banks has plummeted since the onset of financial crisis. Forty-one percent had a great deal or quite a lot of confidence in banks in 2007. In Gallups 2012 asking, only 21 percent gave that response. Even still, Americans continue to believe that the strength of the country today is based on the success of American business. Seventy-one percent agreed with that statement in the latest Pew Research Center poll, not significantly different from the 76 percent who agreed when the question was first asked in 1987.
Q: Now Im going to read you a list of institutions in American society. Please tell me how much confidence you, yourself, have in each one . . . ?
80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0
1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Great deal/Quite a lot of confidence in small business Banks

63%

Big business

21% 21%

Source: Gallup/CNN/USA Today, latest that of 2012.

Q: I am going to read you a series of questions that will help us understand how you feel about a number of things. For each statement, please tell me if you . . . Apr. 2012 Agree, the strength of this country today is mostly based on the success of American business Disagree
Source: Pew Research Center, latest that of April 2012.

May 1987

71% 25

76% 19

Q: Do you . . . ? Generally believe that when big businesses earn a profit, it helps the US economy Doesnt affect the US economy much Hurts the US economy
Source: Gallup, December 2012.

64% 15 17
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Wall Street Hit Hard

In 1996, in a Harris question, 70 percent said Wall Street benefits the country a lot or somewhat. In 2012, 55 percent gave that response. The proportion saying it harms the country a lot has almost tripled in 16 years. Still, 62 percent say Wall Street is absolutely essential, down from 69 percent in 1996. Views about the honesty and morality of people in this world have also taken a sharp hit.
Q; The words Wall Street are often used to describe the nations largest banks, investment banks, brokerage and other financial institutions. Overall, would you say Wall Street . . . ? 1996 Wall Street benefits the country a lot Somewhat Harms the country somewhat Harms a lot 19% 51 16 6 16 26 2012 8% 47

Q: Please say if you tend to agree or disagree with the following statements about Wall Street . . . Percent agree Wall Street is absolutely essential because it provides the money businesses must have for investments 69% 62 Most successful people on Wall Street deserve to make the kind of money they earn 40% 32 Most people on Wall Street would be willing to break the law if they believed they could make a lot of money and get away with it 64% 70 In general, people on Wall Street are as honest and moral as other people 43% 28

1996 2012

1996 2012

In general, what is good for Wall Street is good for the country 39% 30

2009 2012

Recent events have shown that Wall Street should be subjected to tougher regulation 87% 82

Wall Street firms should only pay bonuses when they are doing well and making good profits 78% 78

Note: The 1996 survey is a telephone poll. The 2009 and 2012 polls are Internet surveys. Source: Harris Interactive, latest that of 2012.

Q: Do you think . . . ? Executives at large Wall Street banks share the same fundamental American values as you These managers have a different set of values
Source: Atlantic/Aspen, MayJune, 2012.

17% 79

Q: Would you say . . .? The Occupy Wall Street movement shares my values Does not
Source: Public Religion Research Institute, August 2012.

21% 63
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Two Cheers for Capitalism

In 1978, Irving Kristol wrote a book with the title Two Cheers for Capitalism. He gave capitalism one cheer because it worked in a quite simple, material sense and another because it provided a large measure of personal liberty. He withheld a third cheer because he did not believe capitalism satisfied peoples existential human needs. Over the past several years, capitalism has taken a beating with the financial crisis and Occupy Wall Street, which commanded significant attention initially but lost steam quickly. In the past decade, public opinion about capitalism has changed little. Around 20 to 30 percent seem to have significant doubts. Still, socialism does not find favor. Sixty-four percent in a Fox News poll say it would be a bad thing if the United States moved away from capitalism and toward socialism. Twenty percent said this would be a good thing.
Q: Please tell me whether you . . . ?
80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0%
Feb-03 Feb-04 Feb-05 Feb-06 Feb-07 Feb-08 Feb-09 Feb-10 Aug-02 Aug-03 Aug-04 Aug-05 Aug-06 Aug-07 Aug-08 Aug-09 Aug-10 Feb-12 Feb-11 Aug-11

Agree, most people are better off in a free market economy, even though some people are rich and some are poor

67%

24% Disagree

Source: Pew Research Center, latest that of March 2012.

Q: Just off the top of your head, would you say you have a positive or negative image of each of the following? How about . . . ? Have a positive image of Small business Free enterprise Entrepreneurs Capitalism Big business The federal government Socialism 95% 89 86 61 58 51 39

Q: Do you think . . . ? It would be a good thing for the United States to move away from capitalism and more toward socialism It would be a bad thing

20% 64

Note: Sample is registered voters. Fox has asked this question three times since January 2009 and the results have been stable. Source: Fox News, August 2012.

Note: In 2010, an identical 61 percent had a positive opinion of capitalism. Thirty-six percent had a favorable opinion of socialism. Source: Gallup, November 2012.

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The Iraq War Ten Years Later

Ten years after the war began there in March 2003, Iraq has pretty much disappeared from the pollsters radar screens. The polls below represent more than 20 years of polling about our involvement there. Long before prominent discussions of WMDs, Americans believed Saddam Hussein should be removed from power, as the CBS/New York Times polls from the 1990s show. Support for the 2003 invasion was initially high, but it faded quickly. Less than a majority, 45 percent in July 2003 and 41 percent in 2011, said removing him was worth the loss of American lives. In a January 2013 NBC/Wall Street Journal poll shown on the next page, however, 55 percent described the war as successful. In this new poll, 7 percent described it as very successful.
Q: Is it enough for the United States to drive Saddam Husseins troops out of Kuwait, or should the United States also see to it that Saddam Hussein is removed from power? (January 1991) Q: Should the United States have stopped fighting when Iraqi troops left Kuwait, or should the U.S. have continued fighting Iraq until Saddam Hussein was removed from power? (May 1991February 2001) Q: Do you approve or disapprove of the United States taking military action against Iraq to try and remove Saddam Hussein from power? (February 2002March 2003) Q: Do you think removing Saddam Hussein from power was worth the loss of American life and other costs of attacking Iraq, or not? (July 2003November 2011) Public opinion and the hunt for Saddam Hussein, 19902011
Approve of the US taking military action against Iraq to try and remove Saddam Hussein from power 74% 67% 64% 45% Removing Saddam Hussein from power was worth the loss of American life and other costs of attacking Iraq 41%

90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 79% The US should have continued fighting Iraq until Saddam Hussein was removed from power

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

Source: CBS News and CBS/New York Times, latest that of November 2011.

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AEI POLITICAL REPORT CONTRIBUTORS

Karlyn Bowman, Senior Fellow; Norman Ornstein, Resident Scholar; Michael Barone, Resident Fellow; Henry Olsen, Vice President. Research Assistants: Jennifer Marsico, Editor; Andrew Rugg, Editor. Intern: John Benjamin.

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2011

Q: Do you think . . . ?

70 The war in Iraq has been successful 55% 50 43% The war has been unsuccessful

60

40

30

20 Jul-2008 Nov-2008 Jul-2009 Nov-2009 Jul-2010 Nov-2010 Mar-2011 Jul-2011 Nov-2011 Jul-2012 Nov-2012 Mar-2009 Mar-2010 Mar-2012 Jan-2013

10

0 Source: NBC/Wall Street Journal, latest that of January 2013.

Q: Below are a number of statements about the Iraq war. Please mark whether you agree with each statement. 2012 Agree The threat of terrorism has been reduced by the war The war will lead to spread of democracy in the Middle East The war has worsened Americas relations with the Muslim world The experience of the Iraq war should make nations more cautious about using military force to deal with rogue states
Source: Chicago Council on Global Affairs, October 2012.

28% 28 70

71

Q: Do you . . . ? 2011 Approve of Barack Obamas decision to withdraw all combat troops from Iraq by the end of this year Disapprove
Source: Pew Research Center, November 2011.

75% 21

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Threats to the United States Today

Q: Below is a list of possible threats to the vital interest of the United States in the next 10 years. For each one, please select whether you see this as a critical threat, an important but not critical threat, or not an important threat at all. In the next 10 years Critical threat International terrorism Irans nuclear program The possibility of unfriendly countries becoming nuclear powers Violent Islamic groups in Afghanistan and Pakistan US debt to China Large numbers of immigrants and refugees coming into the US China becoming a world power Islamic fundamentalism Climate change
Source: Chicago Council on Global Affairs, October 2012.

Important but not critical 67% 28% 64 31 63 53 52 40 40 39 32 33 40 40 44 49 46 45

Q: Next, I would like you to think about where the greatest threats to US security will come from in the future. Do you think they will come from . . . ? Asia Middle East Greatest threats to US security will come from 19% 73

Source: Chicago Council on Global Affairs, October 2012.

To Distant Shores?
Have the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan affected Americans views on involvement abroad? Eighty-two percent in a 2012 question said it is still desirable for the United States to exert a strong leadership role. A question asked by the National Opinion Research Center since 1947, shown on the next page, suggests that most Americans still believe it is better for the United States to play an active role of foreign affairs than to stay out. Other questions asked by the Chicago Council show little change in public views about foreign policy goals, but a drop in willingness to send US troops to other parts of the globe.
Q: From your point of view, how desirable is it that . . . ? Very desirable that the US exert strong leadership in world affairs Somewhat desirable Somewhat undesirable Very undesirable 36% 46 14 4

Source: Chicago Council on Global Affairs, latest that of October 2012. In 2002, 41 percent said US leadership is very desirable, 42 percent somewhat desirable, 9 percent somewhat undesirable, and 5 percent very undesirable.

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Q: Do you think it will be best for the future of the country if . . . ?

80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 1947 1949 1951 1953 1955 1957 1959 1961 1963 1965 1967 1969 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2012
Source: National Opinion Research Center, 19471973; Chicago Council on Global Affairs, 19742012.

Best if we take an active part in world affairs 61%

38%

Best if we stay out of world affairs

Q: Below is a list of possible foreign policy goals that the United States might have. For each one please select whether you think that is should be a . . . ? Foreign policy goals -Very important2012 2002 1974 83% 85% 74% 77 NA NA 72 90 NA 64 91 NA 53 70 NA 53 68 NA 42 61 61 35 57 46 33 NA NA 28 NA NA 14 34 28
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Protecting the jobs of American workers Reducing US dependence on foreign oil Preventing the spread of nuclear weapons Combating international terrorism Controlling and reducing illegal immigration Maintaining superior military power worldwide Combating world hunger Strengthening the United Nations Limiting climate change Promoting and defending human rights in other countries Helping to bring a democratic form of government to other nations
Source: Chicago Council on Global Affairs, latest that of October 2012.

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Q: There has been some discussion about the circumstances that might justify using US troops in other parts of the world. Please give your opinions about some situations. Would you . . . ? Favor use of US troops 2012 2002 To stop a government from committing genocide and killing large numbers of its own people To deal with a humanitarian crisis To ensure the oil supply To be part of an international peacekeeping force to enforce a peace agreement between Israel and the Palestinians If Israel were attached by its neighbors If North Korea invaded South Korea If China invaded Taiwan
Source: Chicago Council on Global Affairs, latest that of October 2012.

70% 66 53

77% NA 65

50 49 41 28

65 NA 36 32

Q: Do you think the United States . . . ? South Korea Japan Germany Iraq Afghanistan Turkey Australia Pakistan US should have long-term military bases in 60% 51 51 44 43 40 40 38

Note: In 2008, 57 percent, the highest percentage recorded on this question, said the United States should have long-term military bases in Iraq. Source: Chicago Council on Global Affairs, October 2012.

Current Events
Q: When it comes recent changes in political leadership in Middle Eastern countries such as Egypt and Libya, do you think . . . ? The US should be more involved than it currently is in changes in political leadership in Middle Eastern countries Less
Source: Pew Research Center, October 2012.

Q: Do you think . . . ? The US has a responsibility to do something about the fighting in Syria between government and anti-government groups Does not
Source: CBS, December 2012.

23% 63

27% 62

Q: Thinking about the dispute over Irans nuclear program, which is . . . ? More important to Take a firm stand against Iranian actions Avoid a military conflict with Iran
Source: Pew Research Center, October 2012.

56% 35

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Women in Combat
In 1980, nearly seven in ten opposed women being assigned to combat units. In 1992, Congress created the Presidential Commission on Assignment of Women in the Armed Forces to study womens roles in the armed services. An extensive poll by the Roper Organization was part of that study. In the poll, 51 percent were aware that women were not currently assigned to combat positions, but a quarter didnt know, and 23 percent thought they were. Four questions asked by pollsters that year produced different impressions depending on the emphasis in the question. Most questions since that time have shown majority support for women in combat roles. In 1992, the Commission voted on a number of provisions on women in various combat roles, including by a 10-0 vote, a ban on women in combat. Secretary of Defense Leon Panetta recently removed the ban, and several pollsters have examined the move. In new polls from Gallup and Pew, solid majorities support it.
1980 Q: Do you . . .? Favor women in the military being assigned to combat units Oppose
Source: ABC/Harris, February 1980.

2013 Q: Do you . . . ? 29% 68 Strongly support allowing women in the military to serve in ground units that engage in close combat Somewhat support Somewhat oppose Strongly oppose
Source: Pew Research Center, January 2013.

1992 Q: Do you . . .? Favor allowing women who serve in the military to participate in combat Oppose
Source: Time/CNN/Yankelovich, October 1992.

37% 28 9 17

62% 32

Q: Do you think . . . ? Allowing women to serve in combat roles will . . . Make opportunities for women better 58% Worse 7 Not make much difference 30 Military effectiveness better Worse Not make much difference
Source: Pew Research Center, January 2013.

Q: As you may know, it is military policy today not to assign women to any direct combat positions. All things considered, do you . . . ? Favor [current] policy not to assign women to any direct combat positions Oppose 44% 47

29% 15 49

Source: The Roper Organization for the Presidential Commission on the Assignment of Women in Armed Forces, July 1992.

Q: Suppose that on Election Day you could vote on key issues as well as candidates. Would you . . . ? Would vote for allowing women to serve in combat Would vote against
Source: Gallup, January 2013.

Q: Do you . . . ? Favor allowing qualified women in the military to serve in combat Oppose
Source: Gallup, May-June 1992.

74% 24

74% 20

Q: Do you . . . ? Favor allowing women in the military into combat jobs Oppose
Source: Gallup, November 1992.

55% 42

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