ASC 150 Forecasting Problem Set round all Excel cells to two decimal places.

s. Scatter Plots, Correlation, and Basic Credibility Weighting The following table contains five data sets. Use the information in the table to complete problems 1 through 6: Year 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Data Set 1 50 40 70 60 95 80 105 100 130 Data Set 2 50 20 30 40 80 60 40 80 100 Data Set 3 50 30 20 80 10 50 40 20 130 Data Set 4 110 105 90 85 70 65 50 45 30 Data Set 5 80 10 20 50 5 10 30 10 100

For each of the five data sets, use Excel to complete each of the following steps: 1. Graph the data in a scatter plot (year is the x-value; data is the y-value). 2. Insert the fitted line and use the line to develop a tentative projection for 2010. 3. Make a subjective assessment of how well the data fits the line. 4. Find the median and the linear trended value (TREND) for the data points. 5. Find the correlation coefficient for the data points. 6. Use the absolute value of the correlation coefficient and the median as anchor to determine a credibility weighted forecast for 2010. Trended Values, Weighted Average Values, and Credibility Weighted Forecasts The following table contains five data sets. Use the information in the table to complete problems 7 through 10: Year 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Data Set 1 29 32 35 37 50 42 43 44 18 47 49 Data Set 2 50 46 40 32 38 40 30 20 15 25 10 Data Set 3 10 20 40 50 25 80 60 55 25 90 100 Data Set 4 80 30 40 50 20 60 90 120 45 25 70 Data Set 5 150 140 130 125 100 140 80 65 50 45 40

For each of the five data sets, use Excel to complete each of the following steps: 7. Calculate the linear trended value (TREND), the correlation coefficient, and the value for Z (Z = the square of the correlation coefficient). 8. Calculate the linear weighted value, the exponential weighted value, and the average weighted value. 9. Calculate the median. 10. Use the values derived in the three previous problems and the credibility weighting formula to determine a forecast for 2012. Identifying Outliers Standard Deviation and IQR Rules The following table contains three data sets. Use the information in the table to complete problems 11 through 14: Year 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Data Set 1 12 17 22 100 32 37 42 47 52 90 62 Data Set 2 25 30 35 40 45 150 55 60 5 75 85 Data Set 3 10 500 50 40 30 60 20 80 50 120 350

For each of the three data sets, use Excel to complete each of the following steps: 11. Use Excel to calculate the mean and the standard deviation. 12. Use the 80% standard deviation rule to identify data points which are outliers. 13. Exclude the outliers and reconfigure the data with the outliers excluded. 14. Use the reconfigured data sets to forecast the value for 2012 using the full credibility weighted technique. Manually arrange the following data points in order; calculate the IQR; use the 130% IQR rule to identify the range for outliers; identify any data points which are outliers: 15. 20, 30, 8, 12, 40, 22, 90, 41, 44, 52, 36 16. 88, 10, 46, 44, 30, 34, 18, 8, 16 17. 15, 40, 56, 50, 58, 60, 95, 70

Use the 130% IQR rule to identify the outlier range and eliminate outliers; then, forecast the next data point in the sequence simply by looking at the pattern in the remaining data: 18. 19. 20. 2, 5, 8, 50, 11, 60, 14, 17, 20, 23, . . . 1 1 300, , , 1, -85, 3, 9, 27, 81, . . . 9 3 8, 11, 16, 23, 32, 43, 56, 100, . . .

Forecasting Incomplete Years Using the Expected Value Method 21. Ryan Howard has a career average of 140 runs batted in (RBI) per season; forecast his RBI for the current season under each of the following assumptions (assume there are 160 games in a baseball season): a. He has 30 RBI after 20 games b. He has 40 RBI after 40 games c. He has 50 RBI after 60 games d. He has 75 RBI after 80 games e. He has 100 RBI after 100 games 22. Peyton Manning has a career average of 4,200 passing yards per season; forecast his passing yards for the current season under each of the following assumptions (assume there are 16 games in a football season): f. He has 700 passing yards after 2 games g. He has 1,800 passing yards after 6 games h. He has 2,900 passing yards after 10 games i. He has 3,400 passing yards after 12 games 23. Drew Brees has a career average of 25 touchdown passes (TD) per season; forecast his touchdown passes for the current season under each of the following assumptions (assume there are 16 games in a football season): j. He has 0 TD passes after 3 games k. He has 8 TD passes after 7 games l. He has 14 TD passes after 10 games m. He has 22 TD passes after 13 games