StrategicImplicationsfortheArmyinthePost 2012ElectionEnvironment

Dontfighttheproblem!

BurkeMacgregorGroupLLC

Whatarethebroadstrategictrendlines? WhatwillAmericasPostElectionDefense Establishmentlooklike? WhatshouldtheArmyseniorleadershipdo? Truthful,opendebate isvital. SummaryofKeyPoints

A presentation by Douglas Macgregor, PhD Colonel (ret) U.S. Army Executive VP Burke-Macgregor Group LLC Command and General Staff College Intermediate-Level Education class Fort Lee, Virginia 15 May 2012
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Don'tfighttheproblem,decideit.
GeorgeC.Marshall,GeneraloftheArmy
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Americas military technological edge and advantages in training, discipline and flexibility have been eroded by the U.S. failure to sustain investment in strategic and operational forces. This condition is the direct consequence of our selfdefeating obsession with hegemonic nation building, military occupations and resulting counterinsurgency campaigns in the Middle East and Afghanistan. This period is ending. Now, Army Force Design, Modernization and Thinking about warfare must adjust to radically new strategic conditions.

TheCentralIdea:Crossdomainsynergy.Thecomplementaryvicemerelyadditiveemploymentof capabilitiesindifferentdomainssuchthateachenhancestheeffectivenessandcompensatesforthe vulnerabilitiesoftheothers

JOINTOPERATIONALACCESSCONCEPT(JOAC)VERSION1.017January2012

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Trendlines:Russia,NEAsiaand India

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Russia:Downfrom14millioninthearmedforcestolessthanamillion. Russianforcesarehardpressedtomodernize,letalonesecureRussia, whichborders14nations.RussiasfocusisonrestiveMuslimathomeand inCentralAsia,notontheUSandtheWest. China:Stabilityobsessedleadersarefocusedonmaintainingrapid economicgrowthtocreateenoughjobsforChinas1.3billionpeopleand keepalidonunrest. ChinasMilitary(PLA)isriddledwithcorruptionand professionaldecay,compromisedbytiesofpatronage,andasphyxiated bytheevergreatereffortrequiredtoimposepoliticalcontrol. JapanandtheROK:JapaneseandKoreanDefenseMinisterswillsoonsign ageneralsecurityofmilitaryinformationagreementandanacquisition andcrossservicingagreement.Thefoundationforamilitaryalliancethat willturnthetablesonChinaandchangethestrategicbalanceinNEAsia. India:ChinasacquisitionofCocoIslandfromMyanmarandbuildupof Gawadar NavalbaseinPakistanhaveinducedIndiatobuildupitsown navalforces.IndiasnavalbaseatthemouthoftheMalaccaStrait,is criticaltoIndiasstrategyforblockingChineseshippingthroughtheStrait ofMalacca.
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Trendlines:TheIslamicWorld andLatinAmerica

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MuslimSocietiesinNorthAfrica,MEandSWAareinmeltdown.Islamismis risingbecauseitisrootedinthesocietiesandtheirsupportingcultures.The growingIslamistmajoritieswillstrugglefordecadestogovernthemselves. TurkeyandIranareindirectoppositioninSyria;attemptstoremoveAssad frompowerinSyriaarereinforcingIransperceptionthatitneedsanuclear deterrenttoholdtheSunniPeninsularArabs,Israel,Turkey,andpotentially U.S.Forcesatrisk.SecuringIrananditsnewShiiteSatelliteState,Iraq,and competitionforregionaldominancewillpitTurkeyandIranagainsteach otherfordecades. Criminality,terrorismandhumantraffickingfromLatinAmerica,especially, Mexico,presentsanimmediateandgrowingthreattotheinternalstability andnationalsecurityoftheUnitedStates.Mexicoisinthemidstofadrug war,withrivalcartelsfightingforcontrolofa$30billionmarketforillegal drugsinsidetheUnitedStates. Thefuturekeyterrainoftheworldwillbeoil,minerals,waterandtheinfrastructurethatsupports theseresources. AlFaw inthePersianGulfpumpsoutroughly$17,000asecondincrudeoil. 42%of Nigeria'soilalreadygoestotheUnitedStatesTheWestwithJapaneseparticipationisdividingup theWorldsresourcesontheYaltamodel.TheChinesearenotinvited
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Trendlines:DebtMatters!

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WheninterestratesontheU.S.Treasurys securitiesrise andtheywill theU.S. Governmentscostofservicingthenations ballooningdebtwillsoarconfronting Americanswithanewfiscalcrisis; InSenatorTomCoburnswords,thespecter ofdefault. InternationalFinancialOutlookisgrim. EUROZONEwillimplodefollowedbyUK; NEAsia:Chineseeconomicdownturn alreadyunderway.JapanandKoreawill follow.

NearTerm:ProbabilityofGreatpowerwarlow,butaKoreanStyleEmergencythat demandsready,deployableArmycombatforcescapableofdecisive,Jointoffensive operationsremainsastrongpossibility.Untilbordersaresecure,Americansathomeare atrisk. Longterm:TheprerequisiteforanyfightwithU.S.ForcesistoneutralizeU.S.space basedassets.Thisfightinvolveskineticandnonkinetic(cyber)capabilitiesandwillonly intensify.

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WhatdothetrendleansmeanforAmerica'spost electiondefenseestablishment?
OldWWII/ColdWarIndustrial AgeParadigm Navy Marine

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PostIndustrialInformationAge Paradigm MNVR 15% SUST 25%

Army

ISR STRIKE 60%

AirForce

Strategic Assumptions

New Operational Concept

NewForce Missions

NewForce Design& Capabilities

NewForce Development/ Management/ EmploymentParadigm

CriticalTaskforincomingDefenseTeaminJanuary2013:Optimizetodaysforceswithinthe trendlinestoguidestrategicinvestmentovertime.
IndustrialAgeparadigminefficienciesandduplicationsreduceoperationalimpactandperpetuate unsustainablecostexchangeratioswithouradversaries(Vietnam/Iraq/Afghanistan). Optimizingcapabilityatcostinnewparadigmdramaticallyincreasesoperationalimpactofeach dollarspent maintaining/enhancingsecurityatreducedspendinglevels.
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ImplicationsforArmyGround Forces:

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TheU.S.willnolongersustainopenendedmilitaryinterventionsinfailing orfailedstateswiththeobjectofimposingculturalandpoliticalchange withgeneralpurposegroundforces. TheArmycanlearnmoreaboutthefuturecharacterofwarfighting operationsfromtheFalklandIslandsCampaignthanfromitsexperiencein IraqandAfghanistan. LinesofCommunicationswillbethelifeordeathofforceprojectionover vastdistances.InthePacific,Australiaiskey.(SeeKeyStateStrategy outlinedinBreakingthePhalanx,Praeger January1997) TheArmymustofferamodularcontinuumofresponsethatisflexibleand inherentlyjointindesignandassertaleadershiproleinJointoperations andconcepts. Withoutanewforcedesigninplace,theArmywillnotgetanewstrike vehicleorsupportinglogisticalelement.(A70TonBradleyisntthe answer!) C4ISRpackageisthestartpointforchange. Standardizationofsensors, networks,C2data,andintelligenceisvital.
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WhatshouldtheArmyssenior leadersdo?

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InDecember1905,threeyearsaftertheBoerWarended,RichardHaldane becameSecretaryofStateforWar.Obstructedbyanationobsessedwith theRoyal Navy,andapoliticalcultureopposedtoconscription,Haldane beganpreparingtheBritishArmyforafutureconflictverydifferentfrom colonialwarfare. Haldanesetouttodeterminetheformfuturewarwaslikelytotake,then, adoptedtheorganizationandweaponstofightit.Inotherwords,software (thinkingcarefullyaboutthings,contemplatinglikelyissuesandproblems) mustcomebeforehardware.

RichardBurdonHaldane, SecretaryofStateforWar, 19051912

Whathappened?
Haldaneconcentratedonreorganization,modernization andtraining tomaximizecapabilityatcost; Inpractice,Haldanebuiltagroundforcesuitedtoaglobal MaritimePower,notaregionalContinentalPower; Theresultwasaneliteforceof6infantrydivisionsand1 cavalrydivision,designedforrapiddeploymentasaBritish ExpeditionForce(BEF),backedbyareserveof14 Territorialdivisionsofvolunteers; In1914,theBEFarrivedintimetoslow,then,cooperate withtheFrenchtohalttheGermanadvance.
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ImplicationsoftheHaldaneModel fortodaysArmy:
TheHaldaneapproach demands rigorousanalysis tolinkstrategywith conceptandcapabilities;an integrated,jointmilitary commandstructurewitha selfcontainedorganization forcombat.AnArmyfora globalAerospaceMaritime Power,notacontinental power!

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NewArmyForceDesignmust:
Createpowerfulsynergieswiththetechnologiesandconceptsdeveloped byU.S.AerospaceandMaritimeForces. Punchaboveitsweight,mobilizingfightingpowerdisproportionatetotheir size; Operateinanonlinear,nodalanddispersed,mobilewarfareenvironment insideamuchmorelethalbattlespace. Possessthecapabilitytoclosewiththeenemy,takehits,sustainlosses, keepfightingandstrikebackdecisively(employaccuratedevastating firepowerfromtrackedarmoredplatformstoensuresurvivalandvictoryin closecombat).
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TheLightReconnaissanceStrikeGroup(LRSG)breaksthe WWII/ColdWarparadigm!

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ThepostelectionArmymustbe resilient.Itmustbesurvivable, effectiveandactasaJoint enableracrossarangeof alternativefutures. ALightReconnaissanceStrikeGroupperformscriticaltasks inthecontextofJointoperations:

Providesacrediblelandcomponentwiththemobility, firepower,protectionandorganicsustainmenttooperate autonomouslyunderJointC2indispersedmobilewarfare; Magnifiesthestrikingpowerofairandnavalforces; Signalsescalationdominancetotheenemy; Bypassesorpunchesthroughenemyresistancefor operationalmaneuvertoencircleanddestroysubnational groupsornationstateforces; Shiftsrapidlybetweenclosecombatandpeace enforcement.
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PostIndustrial/InformationAgeJoint,IntegratedC2 WarfightingParadigm

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IntegratedAllArmsWarfare: Warfighting Operationsthat integratefunctionalcapabilities Maneuver,Strike,IISR, Sustainment acrossservice linesinsideanintegratedJointC2 operationalframework. Highlethality,lowdensity: ArmyForcesthatpunchabove theirweight,capableof operationalreachinan environmentofmobile,dispersed warfare.

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Intheabsenceoftruthful,opendebatenothing changes

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ThequestionofwhethertoinvadetheSovietUnionisapoliticaldecision. MyfocusisonthemilitaryissuesimportanttosuchanundertakingItmay bethecampaignisoverin46weeks.Perhaps,thewholethingwillcollapse likeahouseofcardsinthefirstattack.

LieutenantGeneralFriedrichPaulus,ChiefPlannerforOperationBarbarossa, 1940

I'veneverbeenmoreencouragedduringmyentire,almostfouryearsin thiscountry.Ithinkwe'remakingrealprogress.Everybodyisveryoptimistic thatIknowof,whoisintimatelyassociatedwithoureffortthere.

GeneralWilliamWestmoreland,16November1967

Duringtimesofuniversaldeceit,tellingthetruthbecomesarevolutionary act.
GeorgeOrwell,1929

NoAccountability=NoIntegrity=NoChange
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Summary of Key Points:

BurkeMacgregorGroupLLC

ThefutureoftheArmyisaconstrainedfutureespeciallyinthebudgetarysense.TheHaldanemodel pointsthewayforward. Meanwhile,reorganizeArmyForcestoexpandthenationsrangeofstrategicoptions;forcescapableof conductingintegrated,allarmsoperationsindispersed,mobilewarfareagainstamixofpotential opponents,conventionalandunconventional. LiketheNavy,AirForceandMarines,theU.S.Armyexiststoraise,train,andequipmodular/mission focusedcapabilitypackagesandC2elementsdesignedforcommitmenttotheCOCOMsandplugged intoJointForceHeadquarterswhichhavetheauthorityandtheresponsibilitytofightandwinthe nation'swars.

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