TheArmythrougha LookingGlass

Army,PeopleandState: Whereareweheaded?
PresentationtoIntermediateLevel Educationclass FortLee,Virginia 7 September2012 DouglasMacgregor,PhD Colonel(ret)U.S.Army +17039756954

ThePeople:Uncertainty,FearandAnger
Inshort,theofficialestimatesmembersof Congresshearfromtheirbudgetofficeare underestimatingourdireeconomic predicament.Iffiscalpolicyisnotbrought undercontrol,thingswillbemuch,much worse.
FedChairmanBenBernanke,9February2011

TheFrenchgovernmentinthe1780sdrew nearerandnearertobankruptcy,andwith eachexpedienttoavoidbankruptcybrought nearerthesignalforrevolution.

CraneBrinton,AnatomyofRevolution,1938

Americansvaluesandbasicbeliefsare morepolarizedalongpartisanlinesthanat anypointinthepast25years.

PewResearchCenter,4June2012

TheState:Economictriage
MarketsplaguedbyfearofcomingEurozonecollapse, uncertainty; Americanpublicsupportsdefensecuts(noexistential militarythreat); ShrinkingresourcesmeansadestructiveinterServicefight insideafragmenteddefenseestablishment(emphasison effort,notresults); IndustrialAgeinefficienciesandduplicationsnotonly reducetheoperationalimpactofthenationsarmedforces, theyalsoperpetuateunsustainablecostexchangeratios witheventheweakestadversarieswithoutarmies,airforces orairdefenses. Thepoliticianshavenopalatablesolutionsthatwork the solutionsthatwillworkunpopularwithanelectorateraised ontrustin"fair"vs.freemarketsandthemyththat governmentcreatesandsustainsprosperity.

TherealizationthattheUnitedStatesisinafiscalfreefallissinkingin;araceto economiccrisisthatbailoutscantstop.Now,ontheprecipiceoffuturecutsindefense spendingwiththesurvivalofSocialSecurity,MedicareandMedicaidatstake,the Americandefensestatusquoandthebehaviorsitcreatesaresimplyunaffordable.

Meanwhile,beyondAmericasborders
China:Stabilityobsessedleadersarefocusedonmaintainingrapid economicgrowthtocreateenoughjobsforChinas1.3billionpeople andkeepalidonunrest.Chinesesocietyisriddledwithcorruptionand asphyxiatedbytheevergreatereffortrequiredtoimposepolitical control.Chinasneighbors(Japan,Korea,Vietnam)fearandloatheit. MuslimSocietiesinNorthAfrica,MEandSWAareinmeltdown.The growingIslamistmajoritieswillstruggleamongthemselvesfordecades. AttemptstoremoveAssadfrompowerinSyriaarereinforcingIrans perceptionthatitneedsanucleardeterrent.Competitionforregional dominancewillpitTurkeyandIranagainsteachotherfordecades. Mexico,presentsanimmediateandgrowingthreattotheinternal stabilityandnationalsecurityoftheUnitedStates.Mexicoisinthemidst ofadrugwar,withrivalcartelsfightingforcontrolofa$30billionmarket forillegaldrugsinsidetheUnitedStates.

KeyPoint:U.S.economydemandsaustereinterwarperiod levelofmilitaryfunding.Meanwhile,externalconditions requireanewapproachtotheexerciseofmilitarypower.

Army:Whatsthedirectionnow?
Agoodhockeyplayerplayswherethepuckis.A greathockeyplayerplayswherethepuckisgoing tobe. WayneGretzky; Messagebetweenthelines:WayneGretzkyhada significantinfluenceonwherethepuckwasgoing tobe; Thepointissimple:Teamswinbyidentifying patternsinthegamesevolution,patternsthey canleverage. However,patternsarenotabsolutes,and adjustmentstoleveragechangingpatternsare requiredonthewaytovictory. Hindsightcanbeforesightifviewedthroughthe rightlens.

You can duck under the wave, stand fast against the wave or, better yet, surf the wave.
BillGates,Chairman,CEOandfounder,Microsoft,Inc.

Militaryadaptationandreforminperiodsofausterity:
GeneraloftheArmyGeorgeC.Marshallspent6years(19391945)replacingthe ArmysgeneralsandrecoveringArmyForcesfrom20yearsofpoliticaland professionalneglect. Throughoutthe1920sand1930s,theArmysgeneralsfoughtfortheArmys historicbudgetshareandendstrength.Endstrengthfellanddollarsdriedup. Newideasandneworganizationsforcombatweretreatedasdisruptive. Officerswhodidnotconformtothepartylinevanished. ThefutureoftheArmyisaconstrainedfutureespeciallyinthe budgetarysense. However,itisintheyearsbeforeamajorconflictbeginsthata victoriousmilitaryestablishmentdevelopsawarwinningformula combiningtechnologyandhumanpotentialwithinaconceptual frameworksopowerfulnoamountofindividualorsmallunitbravery insidetheenemyforcecanovercomeit. NowistheidealtimefortheArmysofficercorpstofocuson developingtheseformulaetogetherwiththerestoftheJointForce.

Lessonsobserved,butnotlearned.
Theprimarypurposeofanarmy tobereadytofighteffectivelyatalltimes seemedtohavebeenforgotten.TheleadershipIfoundinmanyinstanceswas sadlylacking
GeneralMatthewB.Ridgway,TheKoreanWar,1956

TheProblemin2011
TheArmylacksatruemeasurefor discriminatingbetweenlevelsof performance,whichnegativelyimpacts leaderdevelopment. Graduates(ofArmySchools)lackthe abilitytoquicklydevelopcreative solutionstocomplexproblemsinatime constrainedenvironment. Abettermeansfortalentmanagementis neededintheArmy. 2011CenterforArmyLeadership AnnualSurveyofArmyLeadership TechnicalReport20121

TheSolution in1950andToday
Gettherightleadersintopositionsofauthority andresponsibility(Courage/Competence); Ensureleadersateverylevel(Squadleader throughFourStars)demonstrateperformance againstanobjectivestandard (Accountability/Integrity); Createanenvironmentconducivetoinitiative andindependentactionwithinacommonly understoodoperationalframeworkfromlowest tohighestlevels(Trust/Confidence); Cultivatetheelasticityofmindnecessaryfor adaptationtonewconditions (Imagination/Adaptability).

TheArmywillneedanewapproachin2013!
Thereisonlyonetacticalprinciplewhichisnotsubjecttochange.Itistouse themeansathandtoinflictthemaximumamountofwound,death,and destructionontheenemyintheminimumamountoftime."
GeneralGeorgeS.PattonJr.,1942 Buildpowerfulsynergieswiththetechnologiesandconceptsdevelopedby U.S.AerospaceandMaritimeForces; PrepareforWarfighting Operationsthatintegratefunctionalcapabilities Maneuver,Strike,ISR,Sustainment acrossservicelinesinsidean integratedJointC2operationalframework. Punchaboveitsweight,mobilizingfightingpowerdisproportionatetoits size(Highlethality,lowdensity); Organizeforjointoperationsinanonlinear,nodalanddispersed,mobile warfareenvironmentinsideamuchmorelethalbattlespacethananything seensinceWWII; EnsuretheArmyhasthecapabilitytoclosewiththeenemy,takehits, sustainlosses,keepfightingandstrikebackdecisively.(Mobile,armored firepower!)

HowcantheArmymodernizeinaperiodoffiscalausterity?
DontbindArmyeffortsthroughmassiveprogramsintendedtostampout20,000ideal designsovertwodecadesofproductionruns(FCS); Scienceandindustrycandeveloptechnologyfasterthanthemilitarycanassimilateit; Acapable,cunning,fastmovingenemywillfindwaystoavoidourstrengthsandbringthe directfirefighttoanyattackinggroundforce.
Rapidprototyping usingaprovenplatformmitigates riskandspeedsupdelivery(German/IDFapproach). Whentiedtoanewforcedesign,itisawayto explore/developnewcapabilitiesquicklywithsmaller inventoriesofnewequipmentinsoldiershands beforelargerinvestmentsaremade; Downside:Smallproductionruns,retoolingcosts; Upside:Ongoingreevaluationandintegrationrole, closerinteractionwithusercommunity.Alsoprovides greaterutilitytobaseplatform.

Whatworksnowshouldtriumphover unobtainium. ThePumaAFV

Whatistobedone?Prepareforchange!
Theessentialideaforchangeoccurredinpartbychance,butinanenvironment thatcontainedalltheessentialelementsforchangeandtoamindpreparedto recognizethepossibilityofchange.
Elting E.Morrison,Men,MachinesandModernTimes (1989)

ItsnosecretwhatsrequiredoftheArmyafterthe election:AnefficientandeffectiveorganizationofArmy fightingpowerfortheoptimumutilizationof increasinglyconstrainedresources. WeldArmyfightingpowerintoacoherentJointForce organizedtocopewithabroadspectrumofmilitary missionsatatimewhenthesizeofconventionalforces andthefiscalresourcestosupportthemisdiminishing. Theseactionscallfortoughdecisions.However,as BenjaminDisraeli,noted,Courageistherarestofall qualitiestobefoundinpubliclife.
AmericansoldiersintheArdennes, December1944