Answers: --The cost of fuel in running of an engine is proportional to the square of the speed and is Rs 48 per hour for

speed of 16 kilometers per hour. Other expenses amount to Rs 300 per hour. What is the most economical speed? --Based on the above statement, the formula for cost is C = k*v2 + 300. So, for 48 rs per hour cost at 16 per hour speed, 48 = k*16*16 + 300 48 = k*256 + 300 k = -252/256 now for the most economical speed, differentiate the function. This gives 2kv + 300 = 0. v = -150*256/-252 v = 152.38 km/hr. ...........................................................................................................................................................
2000 rs invested 10%interest per annum a=p(1+(r/n)) power only for(1+(r/n)) and power is rt here a=amount after n yrs and n is number of years and r is annual rate of interest and p is pricipal amount that is deposited money and t is no of yrs amount is deposited so here p=2000 n=5 r=10 t=1 and we get a=486000 ...............................................................................................................................................................

CONCEPTS OF PROBABILITY 2.1 Random Experiments, Sample Spaces and Events Probability theory is concerned with real life situations where a person performs an experiment the outcome of which may not be certain. Such an experiment is called a random experiment. Games of change are classic examples of random experiments - the outcome of throwing a dice is not known with certainty prior to the throw. Firing a rocket is an example of performing a random experiment it could result in failure or success. Associated with any random experiment is a set S of all possible outcomes this set S is called the sample space of the random experiment. Each outcome in a sample space S is called a sample point. An event is a subset of a sample space and contains those sample points for which the event is true. Example 1

Three items are selected at random from a manufacturing process. Each item is inspected and classified defective (D) or nondefective (N). The sample space providing the most information would be: S = {NNN, NDN, DNN, NND, DDN, DND, NDD, DDD} Let B be the event the number of defectives is greater than 1. B = {DDN, DND, NDD, DDD} Example 2 An electronic component is placed on test and we are interested in the time to failure of the component (in hours). The sample space S = {t : 0 t < } Let A be the event the component fails before 5 hours A = {t : 0 t < 5} Example 3 An experiment consists of tipping a coin and then flipping it a second time if a head occurs. If a tail occurs on the first flip, then a dice is tossed. The sample space S = {(H,H), (H,T), (T,1), (T,2), (T,3), (T,4), (T,5), (T,6)} A is the event a number less than 4 occurred on the dice, A= 2.2 Operations with Events: Intersection, Union, Complement We now consider operations with events that will result in the formation of new events these new events will be subsets of the same sample space as the given events. Definitions The Intersection of two events A and B, denoted by the symbol AB, is the event containing all the sample points that are common to A and B.

The Union of two event A and B, denoted by the symbol AB, is the event containing all the sample points that belong to A or B or both.EMa1/CSci- Prob.& Stats - 10 - 2007-2008 The Complement of an event A with respect to a sample space S is the set of all sample points of S that are not in A. The complement of A is denoted by A. Example 4 An electronic component is placed on test, let A be the event the component fails before 5 hours and B the event the component fails before 10 hours. Not the sample space S = {t: 0 t < } AB = {t: 0 t < 5} AB = {t: 0 t < 10} A = {t: 5 t < }, B = {t: 10 t < }. 2.3 Mutually Exclusive Events In certain statistical experiments we may define two events A and B that cannot occur simultaneously the events A and B are then said to be mutually exclusive and have no sample points in common ie AB = . Example 5 Suppose a dice is tossed, let A be the event an even number turns up and B is the event an odd number turns up! Then A = {2, 4, 6} B = {1, 3, 5} and AB = hence A and B are mutually exclusive events. Example 6 In the series circuit We assume that R1, R2 can be in two possible states 1 or 0 denoting operative or defective. The sample space S for the circuit is S = {(1, 1), (0, 1), (1, 0), (0, 0)}

If E1 is the event the entire circuit is operative then E1 = {(1,1)} and E2 is the event at least one of R1, R2 is operative then E2 = {(1, 1), (0, 1), (1, 0)}. We notice that E1 and E2 are not mutually exclusive since the sample point (1, 1) belongs to both events. R1 R2EMa1/CSci- Prob.& Stats - 11 - 2007-2008 2.4 Probability of an Event The statistician is concerned with drawing conclusions from random experiments and, for these conclusions to be reasonably accurate, an understanding of probability theory is essential. Historically, the concept of the probability of an event has been explained by one of three methods the relative frequency method, the equally likely outcome method and the subjective degree of belief method. The results obtained by these methods have led to the formation of an axiomatic definition of probability which avoids many of the pitfalls inherent in these historical methods. The mathematical theory of probability for finite sample spaces provides a set of numbers called weights, ranging from zero to 1, which provide a means of evaluating the likelihood of occurrence of event resulting from a statistical experiment. To every point in the sample space we assign a weight such that the sum of all the weights is 1. If we have a reason to believe that a certain sample point is quite likely to occur when the experiment is conducted, the weight is assigned should be close to 1. On the other hand, a weight closer to zero is assigned to a sample point that is unlikely to occur. In many experiments, such as tossing a balanced coin or dice, all the sample points have the same chance of occurring and are assigned equal weights. Definition The probability of any event A is the sum of the weights of all sample points in A. If we denote the probability of event A by P(A) then 0 P(A) 1, P() = 0, P(S) = 1

Example 7 A dice is loaded in such a way that an even number is twice as likely to occur as an odd number. If E is the event that a number less than 4 occurs on a single toss of the dice, find P(E). 2.5 Equally likely outcomes If the experiment is of such a nature that we can assume equal weights for the sample points of S, then the probability of any event A is the ratio of the number of elements in A to the number of elements in S. Example 8 A bag contains 5 tags marked with the integers 1 through 5. Two tags are drawn at random, the first tag being replaced before the second is drawn. Find the probability of the events A = {both tags drawn have the same numbers}, B = {second number drawn is strictly greater than the first number drawn}.EMa1/CSci- Prob.& Stats - 12 - 2007-2008 Now the sample space contains the 25 ordered pairs (i, j), 1 i 5, 1 j 5 where the first number of the pair indicates the first number drawn. Each ordered pair is equally likely to occur with probability 25 1 . I C A N f om

nd ow the B m A w e = e = n ight t {(1 s , c 1 a ) nnot , (2, 2) be

,( a 3, ssum 3), e ( d 4, e 4) qua ,( l 5, in 5) a } n a e nd xpe

P r ( i A m ) ent = t 25 5 hen they must be assigne so d P( on B) t = he 10 25 basis of

prior knowledge or experimental evidence. For example if a coin is not balanced, we would estimate the two weights for the outcomes head and tail by tossing the coin a large number of times and recording the outcomes. The true weights would be the fractions of heads and tails that occur in the long run this method of arriving at the weights is known as the relative frequency definition of probability. 2.6 Probability Laws Often it is necessary to calculate the probability of some event for known probabilities of other events we find it useful to derive probability laws for the union of two events and the complement of an event. Theorem: If A and B are any two events in a sample space S P(AB) = P(A) + P(B) P(AB) Proof. Referring to the Venn diagrams we notice that P(AB) is the sum of the weights of the sample points in AB. Now P(A) + P(B) is the sum of all the weights in A plus the sum of all the weights in B. We have added the weights in AB twice. Hence P(AB) = P(A) + P(B) P(AB) Corollary 1 If A and B are mutually exclusive ie P(AB) = 0 then P(AB) = P(A) + P(B) Example 9 Calculate the probability of getting a total of 7 or 11 when a pair of dice is tossed. Let A be the event that 7 occurs then A = {(1, 6), (2, 5), (3, 4), (4, 3), (5, 2), (6, 1)}. Let B be the event that 11 occurs then B = {(5, 6), (6, 5)}. The sample space S has 36 equally likely sample points.EMa1/CSci- Prob.& Stats - 13 - 2007-2008