GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS, VOL. 32, L07705, doi:10.

1029/2005GL022419, 2005

Links between the Antarctic Oscillation and winter rainfall over western South Africa
C. J. C. Reason and M. Rouault
Department of Oceanography, University of Cape Town, Rondebosch, South Africa Received 11 January 2005; revised 11 January 2005; accepted 15 March 2005; published 7 April 2005.

[1] Relationships between the Antarctic Oscillation (AAO) and winter rainfall over western South Africa are investigated. This region receives most of its annual rainfall during austral winter and often experiences severe drought. It is found that 6 (6) of the 7 (8) wettest (driest) winters (JJA) during 1948 2004 occur during negative (positive) AAO phase, i.e., positive (negative) pressure anomalies over Antarctica and negative (positive) anomalies over the midlatitudes. The mechanisms by which the AAO appears to influence winter rainfall involve shifts in the subtropical jet, and changes in the low-level moisture flux upstream over the South Atlantic and in the mid-level uplift, low-level convergence and relative vorticity over the region. The anomalous circulation patterns extend into spring; thus, the springs following the identified winters also show similar rainfall anomalies. Citation: Reason, C. J. C., and
M. Rouault (2005), Links between the Antarctic Oscillation and winter rainfall over western South Africa, Geophys. Res. Lett., 32, L07705, doi:10.1029/2005GL022419.

the second largest city, significant irrigated agriculture and is prone to drought, yet the variability in its climate has not been widely studied. It is a semi-arid region receiving most of its rainfall in winter via cold fronts and whose economy depends critically on the adequate storage of these rains in large dams. The rapidly growing population is frequently subjected to water restrictions during the summer half of the year when the rains have been inadequate. Poor rains during 2003 2004 led to restrictions to reduce water consumption by 30% as well as major agricultural losses including bankrupting of farmers, job losses and severe impacts on the economy. As a result, better understanding of its rainfall variability is needed.

2. Rainfall and AAO Variability

[4] South African Weather Service station data averaged between the South African west coast and the interior plateau is used to define a winter (JJA) rainfall index for 1948 2004. The resulting series displays considerable interannual variability (Figure 1a). Those winters whose rainfall is at least one standard deviation above (below) average are termed wet (dry) (Table 1). [5] The leading EOF computed from the 1948 2004 winter 700 hPa geopotential height NCEP re-analyses [Kalnay et al., 1996] over the Southern Hemisphere south of 20S is defined as the AAO index. Since a strong tendency exists in the AAO for positive polarity in recent decades [Thompson and Wallace, 2000], and the rainfall series shows no obvious trend, the AAO index is de-trended and then normalised to determine winters with positive or negative AAO phase (Figure 1a). It is found that 6 of 7 wet (6 of 8 dry) winters during 1948 2004 correspond to negative (positive) AAO phase suggesting a connection between the AAO and the rainfall. The correlation between the two series is 0.3 but increases to 0.4 for 1964 2004. [6] A wavelet analysis of the raw AAO index shows strongest power at periods of 4 5 years throughout 1948 2004 with substantial power at around 12 years from 1950 1975. The rainfall index shows greatest power at 4 6 years during the record with strong power also at 1012 years. To bring out the low frequency relationships more clearly, Figure 1b plots the AAO and rainfall indices after smoothing with a 7 point running mean. The correlation between these series is 0.6 at zero lag (99.5% statistical significance) and increases slightly if the smoothed AAO index leads by two years. This result suggests that some indication of how the rainfall might change on interannual-decadal time scales may be obtained from the state of the AAO index for the previous few years. Such indications may be useful to water managers in the region who need to make decisions about the release of water from dams for irrigation and industrial
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1. Introduction
[2] The Antarctic Oscillation (AAO), Southern Annular or high latitude mode [Kidson, 1988] is the dominant pattern of tropospheric circulation variability south of 20S, and is characterized by pressure anomalies of one sign centred in the Antarctic and anomalies of the opposite sign centred near 40 50S. Although the dominant signal is zonally symmetric, there is also a wave number 2 or 3 pattern superimposed upon it. Thompson and Wallace [2000] defined the AAO as the leading principal component of 850 hPa geopotential height anomalies south of 20S whereas Gong and Wang [1999] used the difference in zonal mean level pressure between 40S and 65S. The U.S. Climate Prediction Center uses the leading principal component of the 700 hPa height field to define the AAO. [3] Given that it is fundamental to the Southern Hemisphere atmospheric circulation, it is natural to ask whether it influences South African precipitation. To date, there are no studies that explicitly consider its impact on South Africa although Rouault et al. [2005] have found evidence of its influence on the climate variability of Marion Island, some 1500 km to the southeast. In the South Atlantic region, Silvestri and Vera [2003] showed a significant AAO influence on southeastern South American rainfall in winter and late spring. Evidence is shown here of links between the AAO and rainfall over the west coast of South Africa and hinterland during winter. This region of the country contains
Copyright 2005 by the American Geophysical Union. 0094-8276/05/2005GL022419

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Figure 1. Rainfall index for western South Africa and detrended AAO index for winter (JJA) during 1948 2004. The AAO index is inverted for ease of comparison. (a) Raw series and (b) after smoothing with a 7 point running mean. purposes, and the planning of new urban developments to accommodate a rapidly growing and relatively poor population.

3. Potential Mechanisms
[7] Composites of NCEP re-analyses for the anomalously wet/dry winters are used to investigate the associated anomalies in regional atmospheric circulation that may impact on the rainfall. Although there are concerns about the NCEP data prior to 1979 [Kalnay et al., 1996; Tennant, 2004], the compositing technique helps to reduce the impact of possible pre-1979 errors. The 1962 wet (1965 and 1999 dry) winters that do not correspond to negative (positive) AAO phase are investigated separately to determine if different mechanisms are responsible. [8] Winter rainfall is mainly brought about by cold fronts whose parent depressions tend to be formed in the SW Atlantic. Figure 2 shows the composite wet winter 500 hPa geopotential height anomaly over the Southern Hemisphere indicating that, in addition to the annular mode, there is a wave 3 4 pattern in the midlatitudes. An area of low
Table 1. Anomalous Winters
Wet 2001 1986b 1977 1974a 1962 1957b 1955a
a

pressure anomaly stretches from the climatologically important cyclogenesis region in the far SW Atlantic [Jones and Simmonds, 1993] across the South Atlantic midlatitudes to southern Africa and the SW Indian Ocean. Negative anomalies in the far SW Atlantic are favourable for the genesis of more and stronger depressions tracking towards South Africa. Figure 2 also suggests that wet winters are associated with weaker South Atlantic and South Indian subtropical anticyclones, decreasing the typical subsidence over South Africa and favouring a more northward track of frontal systems in the region. [9] The pattern shown in Figure 2 is robust in that all the wet winters show an area of low pressure anomaly stretching west from South Africa with another cyclonic anomaly in the SW Atlantic. The non-AAO wet winter (1962) also shows low pressure anomalies over and west of the region; the difference is that it does not show sufficiently positive height anomalies over Antarctica to be classified as negative AAO phase. The connection between these cyclonic anomalies, the AAO, and rainfall is supported by Figure 3 which shows a region of positive correlation between the AAO index and NCEP surface latent heat flux stretching from areas of cyclogenesis in the SW Atlantic across the midlatitudes towards South Africa. [10] The dry winter composite (not shown) is roughly opposite to Figure 2 with high pressure anomalies extending over western South Africa and the South Atlantic and negative over Antarctica. For the two non-AAO dry winters, shifts in the locations of the ridges of the wave 3 pattern are prominent. [11] Since the rainfall is mainly frontal, one might expect shifts in the subtropical jet upstream of the region during anomalously wet or dry seasons. Figure 4 shows that this is the case for the wet winters with the jet shifted equatorwards and stronger than average by about 15%, consistent with a northward shift of the storm track and stronger westerly troughs. For the dry composite, there is a weak-

Dry 1999a 1998a 1984 1978 1969 1965b 1960 1958a

Mature phase ENSO years. Strong ENSO years.

Figure 2. Composite of wet 500 hPa geopotential height anomaly for the 6 of 7 wettest winters with negative AAO phase (1955, 1957, 1974, 1977, 1986, 2001). Contour interval is 5 m.

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Figure 5. As for Figure 2 except 850 hPa moisture flux in g/kg m/s. The arrows denote the direction of the anomalous flux. western South Africa and the neighbouring South East Atlantic. [12] Other re-analysis parameters indicative of changes in frontal rainfall were examined and found to be consistent with the suggestion of a stronger and northward shifted storm track during the wet seasons. Figure 7 shows enhanced uplift at 850 hPa over the region and neighbouring ocean in the wet composite with roughly the reverse for the dry seasons (not shown). This result implies a decrease (increase) in the typical subsidence over the region and a strengthening (weakening) of approaching fronts during wet (dry) seasons. Additionally, low-level cyclonic vorticity and relative convergence (anticyclonic vorticity and divergence anomalies) exist over western South Africa and adjacent ocean for the wet (dry) composite (not shown). As a result, conditions are favourable for local strengthening (weakening) of approaching frontal systems during wet (dry) winters.

Figure 3. Field correlation between NCEP re-analysis surface latent heat flux and the AAO index for winter at zero lag. ening and slight southward shift of the jet (not shown), unfavourable for good rains. These suggested shifts in the storm tracks are supported by a strengthening (weakening) of the low level westerly flow over South Africa (the ocean south of Africa near 40 50S) for the wet composite with associated increase in moisture flux over the country from the Atlantic (Figure 5) and the reverse for the dry composite (not shown). The 1000 500 hPa thickness anomalies (Figure 6) indicate a region of reduced thickness over the region and upstream across the South Atlantic. Since reduced thickness implies a denser and colder atmosphere, and one less able to contain water vapour, this implies that during wet seasons, more of the lower atmosphere moisture is precipitated out over and upstream of western South Africa, consistent with the increased rainfall. For the dry composite (not shown), increased thickness exists over

4. Summary and Discussion

[13] Most wet (dry) winters over western South Africa are associated with negative (positive) phase of the Antarctic Oscillation (AAO) or Southern Annular Mode. Although some anomalous seasons occur during El Nino or La Nina events (Table 1), an investigation found no coherent relationship between ENSO and winter rainfall

Figure 4. As for Figure 2 except zonal wind at 10E, just upstream of western South Africa. Contour interval is 0.5 m/s.

Figure 6. As for Figure 2 except thickness of the 1000 500 hPa layer (contour interval is 3 m).

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Africa during wet (dry) winters. Examination of composites for the springs following the wet (dry) winters showed that these AAO-induced circulation anomalies persist into that season; thus these springs tend to also be wet (dry). [15] The results suggest that the AAO relationship can be used as a diagnostic tool for understanding extreme rainfall seasons over western South Africa rather than being of prognostic use for seasonal forecasting. However, the increased correlation of the smoothed AAO and rainfall series at two year lead compared to that at zero lead suggests that an indication of slow rainfall changes (longer than about 4 years) may be obtained by monitoring low frequency variability in the AAO. [16] Acknowledgments. Some plots were done on the NOAACIRES CDC and KNMI Climate Explorer websites which we gratefully acknowledge. Comments from two reviewers helped improve the paper. Figure 7. As for Figure 2 except vertical motion at the 850 hPa level (contour interval is 0.0015 Pa/s). Negative (positive) values correspond to anomalous uplift (subsidence). over the region. Removing these years from the AAO index led to a slight strengthening of the correlation between the AAO and the rainfall suggesting that the AAO-rainfall relationship is not influenced to any obvious extent by ENSO. [14] Analysis of the circulation anomalies indicates that the mechanisms by which the AAO influences rainfall over western South Africa involves shifts in the subtropical jet, changes in the low-level moisture flux over the region, and local uplift, low-level convergence and relative vorticity. Hence, negative AAO/wet winters tend to be associated with an equatorward shifted and stronger midlatitude storm track in the South African sector and positive AAO phase/ dry winters with the reverse. There are also shifts in the wave number 3 4 pattern such that cyclonic (anticyclonic) anomalies tend to exist over and upstream of western South

References
Gong, D., and S. Wang (1999), Definition of Antarctic Oscillation Index, Geophys. Res. Lett., 26, 459 462. Jones, D. A., and I. H. Simmonds (1993), A climatology of Southern Hemisphere extra-tropical cyclones, Clim. Dyn., 9, 131 145. Kalnay, E. J., et al. (1996), The NCEP/NCAR 40-year reanalysis project, Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 77, 437 441. Kidson, J. W. (1988), Interannual variations in the Southern Hemisphere circulation, J. Clim., 1, 1177 1198. Rouault, M., J.-L. Melice, C. J. C. Reason, and J. R. E. Lutjeharms (2005), Climate variability at Marion Island, Southern Ocean, since 1960, J. Geophys. Res., 31, doi:10.1029/2004JC002492, in press. Silvestri, G. E., and C. S. Vera (2003), Antarctic Oscillation signal on precipitation anomalies over southeastern South America, Geophys. Res. Lett., 30(21), 2115, doi:10.1029/2003GL018277. Tennant, W. (2004), Considerations when using pre-1979 NCEP/NCAR reanalyses in the southern hemisphere, Geophys. Res. Lett., 31, L11112, doi:10.1029/2004GL019751. Thompson, D. W. J., and J. M. Wallace (2000), Annular modes in the extratropical circulation. part I: Month-to-month variability, J. Clim., 13, 1000 1016.

C. J. C. Reason and M. Rouault, Department of Oceanography, University of Cape Town, Private Bag, Rondebosch, 7701 South Africa. (cjr@egs.uct.ac.za)

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