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INTRODUCTION
1. Long-term load forecasting (LTLF): It is mainly for system planning, typically the
long term forecast covers a period of 10 to 20 years. Key factors in LTLF includes stock
of electricity-using equipment, level and type of economic activity, price of electricity,
price of substitute sources of energy, non economic factors such as marketing and
conservation campaigns, and weather conditions.
2. Medium-term load forecasting (MTLF): It is mainly for the scheduling of fuel
supplies and maintenance programmes. It usually covers a period of a few months.
3. Short-term load forecasting (STLF): It is for the day-to-day operation and scheduling
of the power system.
Our project, mainly talks about the STLF. The STLF forecaster calculates the
estimated load for each hours of the day, the daily peak load, or the daily or weekly
energy generation. STLF is important to clerical supplier because they can use the
forecasted load to control the number of generators in operation, to shut up some unit
when forecasted load is low and to start up of new unit when forecasted load is high. A
large variety of techniques have been investigated in STLF.
The statistical category includes multiple linear regression,
stochastic time series, general exponential smoothing, state space,
etc. Recently support vector regression, which is a very promising
statistical learning method, has also been applied to short-term load
forecasting and has shown good results. Usually statistical methods
can predict the load curve of ordinary days very well, but they lack the
ability to analyze the load property of holidays and other anomalous
days, due to the inflexibility of their structure. Expert system, artificial
neural network and fuzzy inference belong to the artificial intelligence
category. Artificial neural network doesn’t need the expression of the
human experience and aims to establish a network between the input
data set and the observed outputs. It is good at dealing with the
nonlinear relationship between the load and its relative factors, but the
shortcoming lies in over fitting and long training time.
1.3.1 Background
Load forecasting is one of the central functions in power systems operations. The
motivation for accurate forecasts lies in the nature of electricity as a commodity and
trading article; electricity can not be stored, which means that for an electric utility, the
estimate of the future demand is necessary in managing the production and purchasing in
an economically reasonable way.
Load forecasting methods can be divided into very short-, short-, mid- and long-
term models according to the time span. In very-short term forecasting the prediction
time can be as short as a few minutes, while in long-term forecasting it is from a few
years up to several decades. This work concentrates on short-term forecasting, where the
prediction time varies between a few hours and about one week. Short-term load
forecasting (STLF) has been lately a very commonly addressed problem in power
systems literature. One reason is that recent scientific innovations have brought in new
approaches to solve the problem. The development in computer technology has
broadened possibilities for these and other methods working in a real time environment.
Another reason may be that there is an international movement towards greater
competition in electricity markets. Even if many forecasting procedures have been tested
and proven successful, none has achieved a strong stature as a generally applied method.
A reason is that the circumstances and requirements of a particular situation have a
significant influence on choosing the appropriate model.
The results presented in the literature are usually not directly comparable to each
other. A majority of the recently reported approaches are based on neural network
techniques. Many researchers have presented good results. The attraction of the methods
lies in the assumption that neural networks are able to learn properties of the load, which
would otherwise require careful analysis to discover.
However, the development of the methods is not finished, and the lack of
comparative results on different model variations is a problem. Therefore, to make use of
the techniques in a real application, a comparative analysis of the properties of
differentmodel types seems necessary.
1.3.2 Purpose of the work
This work studies the applicability of different neural network models on short-
term load forecasting. The approach is comparative. The models are divided into two
classes: models forecasting the load for one whole day at a time, and models forecasting
ahead hour by hour. Testing is carried out on the real load data of a Delhi electric utility.
The objective is to accomplish suggestions on choosing the most appropriate model(s).
There is need to forecast the load accurately at all time spans, another goal is to study the
performance of the models for different lead-times. Intuitively, it seems possible that
different models should be preferred for different time spans even with in the short-term
forecasting range.
There are some properties, which are considered important:
- The model should be automatic and able to adapt quickly to changes in the load
behaviour.
- The model is intended for use in many different cases. This means that generality is
desired.
- Updating the forecast with new available data should be possible. The hours closest to
the forecasting time should always be forecast as accurately as possible.
- The model should be reliable. Even exceptional circumstances must not give rise to
unreasonable forecasts.
- Difficult weather conditions typical in Delhi, especially large variation of outdoor
temperature, should be taken care of.
- The model should be easily attachable to an energy management system. This work
does not study the forecasting for special days, such as religious and legal holidays.
Special days have different consumption profiles from ordinary days, which makes
forecasting very difficult for them. When implementing a real application, a means to
take these days into account has to be found. The most common approach, but not
necessarily the best one, is to treat them as Sundays.
Chapter 2
LOAD
FORECASTING
Load forecasting methods can be divided into very short term, long term models
according to the time span . In very short term load forecasting the prediction time can be
as short as a few minutes, while in the long term forecasting it is from a few years up to
several decades. In this project, short term load forecast is presented which is important
for online control and security evaluation of a large system. A precise short term load
forecasting is essential for monitoring and controlling power system operation. The
hourly load forecast with a lead-time up to one week in advance is necessarily for online
solution of scheduling problem.
A fine short term prediction of future load is helpful in better operation of power
systems and its economical utilization. A number of algorithms have been suggested for
solving this problem. In this, STLF with neural networks is presented. Above method is
studied by considering a most effective weather component among all i.e. temperature.
Test results were obtained for actual load data obtained from Northern Power Grid, New
Delhi, INDIA for 24 hours ahead forecasting with weather information.
2.1 Types of load forecasting
Depending upon the period of forecast, the load forecast is of two types:
It takes quit a long time to plan, install and commission additional generating
capacity. Generally, system expansion planning starts with a forecast of anticipated future
load requirements. Proper long term forecasting is necessary for optimal generation
capacity expansion.
One method, used by many utilities, for long term, load forecasting is
extrapolation. This technique involves fitting trend curves to basic historical data,
adjusted to reflect the growth trend itself. Once the trend curve is known, the forecast is
found by evaluating the trend curve function at the desired future point.
Another technique for long term load forecasting is Correlation. This technique
relates system leads to various demographic and economic factors. Typical factors like:
population, employment, industrial licenses, appliance saturation, weather data etc. are
used in correlation techniques. However, the forecasting the demographic and economic
factors is rather difficult.
A precise short term load forecasting is essentially for monitoring and controlling
power system operation. The hourly load forecast with a lead-time up to one week in
advance is necessarily for online solution of scheduling problem. A 24-hour load forecast
is needed for successful operation of power plant. One hour forecast is important for
online time control and security evaluation of a large power system.
Short-term load forecasting techniques generally involve physical decomposition
of load into components. The load is decomposed into a daily pattern reflecting the
difference in activity level during the day. A weekly pattern representing the day of the
week effect on load. A trend component concerning the seasonal growth in load and a
weather sensitive component reflecting the deviations in load due to weather fluctuations.
The random errors can be statistically analysed to obtain a stochastic model for a error
estimation. Thus, the expected hourly load forecast is divided in to 5 components and can
be written as:
Y (i, j). =ADP (j)+AWP (k, j)+WSC (i, j)+TR (i)+SEC (i, j)..............................(2.1)
Where
Y (i, j) =Load forecast for j th hour of i th day.
ADP (j) =Average daily load pattern at j th hour.
AWP (k, j) =Average weekly load pattern at j th hour and k th day of week.
(k=1,2…7)
WSC (i, j)=Weather sensitive component at j th hour of i th day.
SEC (i, j)=Stochastic error component which is assumed to be normally distributed.
TR (i)=Trend component of load on i th day.
The average daily pattern represents the hour of the day effect. It is an average of
the daily load pattern over an optimal number of past days. The average weekly pattern
reflects the day of week effect. It is calculate d as the average of the weekly cycles over a
certain number of past weeks.
Factors affecting the load depend on the particular consumption unit. The
industrial load is usually mostly determined by the level of the production. The load is
often quite steady, and it is possible to estimate its dependency on different production
levels. However, from the point of view of the utility selling electricity, the industrial
units usually add uncertainty in the forecasts. The problem is the possibility of
unexpected events, like machine breakdowns or strikes, which can cause large
unpredictable disturbances in the load level.
In the case of private people, the factors determining the load are much more
difficult to define. Each person behaves in his own individual way, and human
psychology is involved in each consumption decision. Many social and behavioural
factors can be found. For example, big events, holidays, even TV-programs, affect the
load. The weather is the most important individual factor; the reason is largely being the
electric heating of houses, which becomes more intensive as the temperature drops.
As large part of the consumption is due to private people and other small
electricity customers, the usual approach in load forecasting is to concentrate on the
aggregate load of the whole utility. This reduces the number of factors that can be taken
into account.
In the short run, the meteorological conditions cause large variation in this
aggregated load. In addition to the temperature, also wind speed, cloud cover, and
humidity have an influence.
- In the long run, the economic and demographic factors play the most important role
in determining the evolution of the electricity demand.
- From the point of view of forecasting, the time factors are essential. By these,
- Various seasonal effects and cyclical behaviours (daily and weekly rhythms) as well
as occurrences of legal and religious holidays are meant.
The other factors causing disturbances can be classified as random factors. These are
usually small in the case of individual consumers, although large social events and
popular TV-programs add uncertainty in the forecasts. Industrial units, on other hand, can
cause relatively large disturbances.
Only Short Term Forecasting is dealt in this project, and the time span of the
forecasts will not range further than about one week ahead. Therefore, the economic and
demographic factors will not be discussed. The decision to combine all consumption
units into one aggregate load means that the forecasting rests largely on the past
behaviour of the load. Time factors play the key role in the analysis of this work.
\Fast Speed
Employment of the latest historical data and weather forecast
data helps to increase the accuracy. When the deadline of the
forecasted result is fixed, the longer the runtime of the STLF program
is, the earlier historical data and weather forecast data can be
employed by the program. Therefore the speed of the forecasting is a
basic requirement of the forecasting program. Programs with too long
training time should be abandoned and new techniques shortening the
training time should be employed. Normally the basic requirement of
24 hour (96 points) forecasting should be less than 20 minutes.
Load forecasting has been a central and an integral process in planning and
operation of electric utilities. Many techniques and approaches have been investigated to
tackle this problem in the last two decades. These are often different in nature and apply
different engineering considerations and economic analysis. Some of the short-term loads
forecasting techniques have been listed below.
1. Time- of- day models.
2. Multiple Linear regression.
3. Stochastic time series.
4. State space.
5. Knowledge based expert system.
6. ANN based load forecasting.
7. FL-ANN based load forecasting.