DAILY I FOREX REPORT

18TH FEBRUARY 2013

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 HEADLINES

 Forex: EUR/USD Strength

Shaken By EZ GDP,
USD/JPY And EUR/JPY Slip
 EURUSD- Trading the U. of
Michigan Confidence
Survey

TRADING TIPS  Pound Sets A New 6-Month

Low On Disappointing
 SELL EURUSD Retail Start To The New
Year
BELOW 1.3311 tgs
1.3297/1.3283 sl G20 Unlikely to Break New Ground
1.3331 on Currency Policy
 G20 Meeting Unlikely to Break New
Ground on FX Intervention Policy
 SELL USDJPY BELOW  Euro May Recover if Weekly LTRO
Repayment Exceeds Recent Trends
92.22 tgt
 Yen Advanced in Asia as Stocks Fell,
Muto Tipped for Top Spot at BOJ
92.08/91.94 SL 92.42
A quiet economic calendar in European trading hours
puts the spotlight on the start of meeting of G20
finance ministers and central bank governors in
Moscow. While the recent focus on so-called
 SELL GBPUSD “currency wars” has peaked on-lookers’ interest, the
sit-down is likely to disappoint in terms of the ambition
BELOW 1.5461 tgt of its final outcome. Although policymakers are sure
to offer plenty of lip-service to the importance of
1.5447/1.5433 SL exchange rate flexibility, nothing concrete is likely to
emerge as usual.
1.5481
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 HOURLY
HOURLY EURUSD
EURUSD CHART
CHART


ANALYSIS
OPEN: 1.3350
HIGH: 1.3393
LOW: 1.3311
CLOSE: 1.3334

 EURUSD LOOKS DOWNWARD

 TREND : BEARISH
 STRATEGY: SELL ON RISE
 MACD =>. 0000(BEARISH SIGNAL)
 RSI => 36(BEARISH SIGNAL)
 HOURLY USDJPY CHART
 HOURLY USDJPY CHART

ANALYSIS
OPEN: 92.96
HIGH: 93.12
LOW: 92.22
CLOSE: 92.60

 USDJPY LOOKS DOWNWARD

 TREND: BEARISH
 STRATEGY: SELL ON RISE
 MACD => 0.01( BEARISH SIGNAL)
 RSI =>43(BEARISH SIGNAL)
  HOURLY
HOURLYGBPUSD CHART
GBPUSD CHART

ANALYSIS
OPEN: 1.5485
HIGH: 1.5550
LOW: 1.5461
CLOSE: 1.5501

 GBPUSD LOOKS DOWNWARD

 TREND: BEARISH
 STRATEGY: SELL ON RISE
 MACD => .-0011( BEARISH SIGNAL)
 RSI => 44(BEARISH SIGNAL)
 HOURLY EURGBP CHART
HOURLY EURGBP CHART

ANALYSIS
OPEN: 0.8621
HIGH: 0.8633
LOW: 0.8574
CLOSE: 0.8602

 EURGBP LOOKS DOWNWARDS

 TREND: BEARISH
 STRATEGY: SELL ON RISE
 MACD =>.001(BEARISH SIGNAL)
 RSI =>45(BEARISH SIGNAL)

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 HOURLY USDINDEX CHART

ANALYSIS
OPEN: 80.4290
HIGH: 80.4890
LOW: 80.2160
CLOSE: 80.4630

 USDINDEX LOOKS UPWARD

 TREND: BULLISH
 STRATEGY: BUY ON DEEPS
 MACD =>0.033(BULLISH SIGNAL)
 RSI =>58(BULLISH SIGNAL)

ECONOMIC CALENDER
Date Time Currency Event Importance Actual Forecast Previous Notes

Mon AUD Home Loans

00:30 Medium -1.5% 0.0% -0.7%
Feb 11 (DEC)

AUD Value of Loans

00:30 Low -2.7% 0.5%
(MoM) (DEC)

AUD Investment
00:30 Low -2.4% -3.2%
Lending (DEC)

EUR Euro-Area
13:30 Finance Ministers Meet High
in Brussels

NZD NZ Card
21:45 Medium 0.4%
Spending (MoM) (JAN)

NZD NZ Card
21:45 Spending - Retail Medium 0.3% 0.3%
(MoM) (JAN)

JPY Japan Money

23:50 Low 2.3% 2.2%
Stock M3 (YoY) (JAN)

JPY Japan Money

23:50 Stock M2+CD (YoY) Low 2.6% 2.6%
(JAN)

EUR German
Tue
Feb 12
Wholesale Price Index Low 3.2%
(YoY) (JAN)

EUR German
Wholesale Price Index Low 0.0%
(MoM) (JAN)

GBP RICS House Price

00:01 Medium 1% 0.0%
Balance (JAN)

AUD NAB Business

00:30 Medium 3
Confidence (JAN)

AUD RBA Credit Card

00:30 Low $A21.8B
Purchases (DEC)

AUD RBA Credit Card

00:30 Low $A49.5B
Balances (DEC)

AUD NAB Business

00:30 Low -4
Conditions (JAN)

JPY Machine Tool

06:00 Medium -27.5%
Orders (YoY) (JAN P)

CHF Consumer Price

08:15 Medium -0.3% -0.4%
Index (YoY) (JAN)

CHF CPI - EU
08:15 Harmonised (YoY) Medium -0.3%
(JAN)

CHF Consumer Price

08:15 Low -0.3% -0.2%
Index (MoM) (JAN)

CHF CPI - EU
08:15 Harmonised (MoM) Low 0.1%
(JAN)

GBP Core Consumer

09:30 Price Index (YoY) High 2.4% 2.4%
(JAN)
 GBP Consumer Price
09:30 High 2.7% 2.7%
Index (YoY) (JAN)

GBP Retail Price Index

09:30 Medium 3.2% 3.1%
(YoY) (JAN)

GBP Producer Price

09:30 Index Output n.s.a. Medium 2.0% 2.2%
(YoY) (JAN)

GBP Producer Price

09:30 Index Output Core Medium 1.4% 1.5%
n.s.a. (YoY) (JAN)

GBP Consumer Price

09:30 Medium -0.5% 0.5%
Index (MoM) (JAN)

GBP Producer Price

09:30 Index Output n.s.a. Low 0.2% -0.1%
(MoM) (JAN)
GBP Producer Price
09:30 Index Output Core Low 0.1% 0.0%
n.s.a. (MoM) (JAN)
GBP Producer Price
09:30 Index Input n.s.a. (YoY) Low 1.0% 0.3%
(JAN)
GBP Producer Price
09:30 Index Input n.s.a. Low 0.8% -0.2%
(MoM) (JAN)

GBP DCLG UK House

09:30 Low 2.0% 2.1%
Prices (YoY) (DEC)

GBP Retail Price Index

09:30 Low -0.5% 0.5%
(MoM) (JAN)

GBP Retail Price Index

09:30 Ex Mort Int.Payments Low 3.1% 3.0%
(YoY) (JAN)

GBP Retail Price Index

09:30 Low 245.6 246.8
(JAN)

USD Mortgage
12:00 Low 7.4%
Delinquencies (4Q)

USD MBA Mortgage

12:00 Low 4.1%
Foreclosures (4Q)

USD NFIB Small

12:30 Business Optimism Low 89 88
(JAN)

USD JOLTs Job

15:00 Low 3676
Openings (DEC)

USD Fed's George

16:30 Speaks on the Low
Economy in Nebraska

USD Monthly Budget

19:00 Medium -$2.00B -$27.41B
Statement (JAN)

AUD Westpac
23:30 Consumer Confidence Medium 0.6%
(FEB)

AUD Westpac
23:30 Consumer Confidence Low 100.6
Index (FEB)

JPY Tertiary Industry

23:50 Medium 0.7% -0.3%
Index (MoM) (DEC)
 JPY Domestic
23:50 Corporate Goods Price Low -0.3% -0.6%
Index (YoY) (JAN)
JPY Domestic
23:50 Corporate Goods Price Low 0.2% 0.3%
Index (MoM) (JAN)
USD Fed's Plosser
Wed
Feb 13
00:30 Speaks on Economic Low
Outlook in Stanford
USD Fed's Lacker
00:30 Speaks on Economics Low
in Lancaster

CHF Producer & Import

08:15 Low 1.0% 1.0%
Prices (YoY) (JAN)

CHF Producer & Import

08:15 Low 0.0% 0.1%
Prices (MoM) (JAN)

EUR Euro-Zone
10:00 Industrial Production Medium -2.4% -3.7%
w.d.a. (YoY) (DEC)
EUR Euro-Zone
10:00 Industrial Production Low 0.2% -0.3%
s.a. (MoM) (DEC)

GBP Bank of England

10:30 High
Inflation Report

USD MBA Mortgage

12:00 Low
Applications (FEB 8)

USD Advance Retail

13:30 High 0.1% 0.5%
Sales (JAN)

USD Retail Sales Less

13:30 Medium 0.1% 0.3%
Autos (JAN)

USD Retail Sales Ex

13:30 Low 0.4% 0.6%
Auto & Gas (JAN)

USD Retail Sales

13:30 Low 0.2% 0.6%
"Control Group" (JAN)

USD Import Price Index

13:30 Low -1.5%
(YoY) (JAN)

USD Import Price Index

13:30 Low 0.8% -0.1%
(MoM) (JAN)

USD Business
15:00 Medium 0.3% 0.3%
Inventories (DEC)

USD DOE U.S.

15:30 Gasoline Inventories Low
(FEB 8)

USD DOE U.S.

15:30 Distillate Inventory Low
(FEB 8)

USD DOE U.S. Crude

15:30 Low
Oil Inventories (FEB 8)

USD DOE Cushing OK

15:30 Crude Inventory (FEB Low
8)
USD Fed's Bullard to
Speak on Economy at
16:10 Low
Arkansas State
University
 NZD Business NZ
Performance of
21:30 Medium 50.1
Manufacturing Index
(JAN)

NZD Food Prices

21:45 Low -0.2%
(MoM) (JAN)

JPY Nominal Gross

23:50 Domestic Product High 0.0% -0.9%
(QoQ) (4Q P)

JPY Gross Domestic

23:50 High 0.1% -0.9%
Product (QoQ) (4Q P)

JPY Gross Domestic

23:50 Product Annualized High 0.4% -3.5%
(4Q P)
JPY Gross Domestic
23:50 Product Deflator (YoY) Low -0.5% -0.8%
(4Q P)

Thu JPY Bank of Japan

Feb 14
High -0.2% 0.10%
Rate Decision (FEB 14)

CNY Actual FDI (YoY)

Medium -0.2% -4.5%
(JAN)

AUD Consumer
00:00 Inflation Expectation Medium 2.0%
(FEB)

NZD ANZ Consumer

00:00 Confidence (MoM) Low 3.1%
(FEB)

NZD ANZ Consumer

00:00 Confidence Index Low 118.3
(FEB)

JPY Tokyo
04:00 Condominium Sales Low -3.0%
(YoY) (JAN)

EUR French Gross

06:30 Domestic Product Medium 0.5% 0.0%
(YoY) (4Q P)

EUR French Gross

06:30 Domestic Product Low -0.5% 0.1%
(QoQ) (4Q P)

EUR German Gross

07:00 Domestic Product High 0.9%
w.d.a. (YoY) (4Q P)
EUR German Gross
07:00 Domestic Product High 0.4%
n.s.a. (YoY) (4Q P)
EUR German Gross
07:00 Domestic Product s.a. Medium 0.2% 0.2%
(QoQ) (4Q P)

EUR ECB Publishes

09:00 High
Monthly Report

EUR Italian Gross

Domestic Product s.a.
09:00 Medium -2.4%
and w.d.a. (YoY) (4Q
P)

EUR Italian Gross

Domestic Product s.a.
09:00 Low -0.2%
and w.d.a. (QoQ) (4Q
P)
 EUR Euro-Zone Gross
10:00 Domestic Product s.a. High -0.6%
(YoY) (4Q A)
EUR Euro-Zone Gross
10:00 Domestic Product s.a. Medium -0.1%
(QoQ) (4Q A)

USD Initial Jobless

13:30 Medium 360K 366K
Claims (FEB 10)

USD Continuing Claims

13:30 Low 3200K 3224K
(FEB 3)

USD EIA Natural Gas

15:30 Storage Change (FEB Low -118
8)

NZD Retail Sales Ex

21:45 Medium -0.4%
Inflation (QoQ) (4Q)

JPY Japan Buying

23:50 Foreign Stocks (Yen) Low
(FEB 8)
JPY Japan Buying
23:50 Foreign Bonds (Yen) Low
(FEB 8)
JPY Foreign Buying
23:50 Japan Stocks (Yen) Low ¥419.5B
(FEB 8)
JPY Foreign Buying
23:50 Japan Bonds (Yen) Low
(FEB 8)

Fri USD Revisions of

Low
Feb 15 Producer Price Index

CNY MNI February

01:35 Flash Business Low
Sentiment Indicator

NZD Non Resident

02:00 Low 64.0%
Bond Holdings (JAN)

JPY Industrial
04:30 Production (YoY) (DEC Medium -7.8%
F) (DEC F)

JPY Industrial
04:30 Production (MoM) Low 2.5%
(DEC F) (DEC F)

JPY Capacity
04:30 Utilization (MoM) (DEC Low -0.2%
F) (DEC F)

USD G20 Finance

Ministers and Central
05:00 Medium
Bank Governors
Meeting in Russia
GBP Retail Sales
09:30 w/Auto Fuel (YoY) Medium 0.9% 0.3%
(JAN)

GBP Retail Sales (YoY)

09:30 Medium 1.6% 1.1%
(JAN)

GBP Retail Sales

09:30 w/Auto Fuel (MoM) Low 0.5% -0.1%
(JAN)

GBP Retail Sales

09:30 Low 0.5% -0.3%
(MoM) (JAN)
 EUR Euro-Zone Trade
10:00 Balance s.a. (euros) Low 10.6B 11.0B
(DEC)

EUR Euro-Zone Trade

10:00 Low 12.0B 13.7B
Balance (euros) (DEC)

USD Empire
13:30 Low -2 -7.78
Manufacturing (FEB)

CAD Manufacturing
13:30 Shipments (MoM) Low -0.5% 1.7%
(DEC)

USD Net Long-term

14:00 Medium $52.3B
TIC Flows (DEC)

CAD Existing Home

14:00 Medium -0.5%
Sales (MoM) (JAN)

USD Total Net TIC

14:00 Low $27.8B
Flows (DEC)

USD Manufacturing
14:15 Medium 0.2% 0.8%
(SIC) Production (JAN)

USD Industrial
14:15 Medium 0.2% 0.3%
Production (JAN)

USD Capacity
14:15 Low 78.9% 78.8%
Utilization (JAN)

USD U. of Michigan
14:55 High 74.5 73.8
Confidence (FEB P)

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