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2009

2008 12 18

300

37.28
20.60
11297.66
2045.10
2015.69
7412.47
2826.32

21.9%

10%15% 08 7-8 15%-20% CPI


08
09

17696
12696

081201

080902

080612

080318

071218

7696

300

1Q08-4Q10

1Q08
2Q08
3Q08
4Q08
1Q09
2Q09
3Q09
4Q09
1Q10
2Q10
3Q10
4Q10

(8621)61038325
zhangy@gjzq.com.cn

22696

PS

(8621)61038257
zhaoli@gjzq.com.cn
969
15A 200011

2009

A 08EPS

8.58
7.57
35.21
5.38
14.52

531.35
150.46
35.00
360.32
26.80

0.316
0.525
1.352
0.347
0.675

EPS
09%08

09EPS

08PE

09PE

23.73%
15.05%
22.61%
8.00%
32.74%

0.391
0.604
1.658
0.375
0.896

27.15
14.42
26.04
15.50
21.51

21.94
12.53
21.24
14.36
16.21

2009

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1 .......................................................................... 6
2..................................................................................... 6

2009

3 .......................................................................... 7
4 ................................................................................. 8
5group carrefour ........................... 8
6............................................................ 8
7 .......................................................................... 9
8 ...................................................................... 9
9............................................................ 9
10.......................................................................... 10
11 ............................................................................. 10
12 ...................................................................... 11
13 .................................................................................... 11
14.......................................................................... 11
15 .................................................... 12
16 ......................................... 12
17............................... 13
18 ................................................................................. 13
19 .................................................................................... 13
20 1993 ....................................... 14
21 ............................................................................. 15
22 ...................................................................... 15
23 ............................................................... 16
24 .................................................................. 16
25.......................................................................... 17
26Carrefou .................................................................. 18
27Carrefour ............................................... 18
28 Carrefou ............................................ 18
29Carrefour .......................................................... 19
30 ............................................................... 19
31Carrefou ......................................................................... 20
32 ...................................................................... 20
33 ........................... 22
34 ............................................................... 23
35 .................................................................. 23
36 ........................................................... 24
37 .................................................................. 25
38.......................................................................... 25
39.......................................................................... 25
40 ............................................................................. 25
41/-........................................... 26

2009

42/ ........................................ 26
43 ............................................................................. 26
44 ............................................................................. 26
45CPI ........................................................ 27
46 ............................................................... 27
47 ........................................................... 28
48...................................... 28
49 CPI ......................................................................... 30
501987-1991 ................................... 31
511987-1990 ................................... 31
52.......................................................................... 33
53 ............................................................................. 33
54/......................................................................... 33
55/......................................................................... 33
56 ........................................................... 34
57.......................................................................... 34
58A ROE ....................................................................................... 34
59H ROE....................................................................................... 34
60 PE 09 ........................................ 35
61 PS ....................................................................... 35
62 ................................................................................. 36
63 ........................................................................................ 36

2009

2009

9
4

3000 -4000

2009

60%

5group carrefour
2001

200 2

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

H yperma rkets

59%

59%

59%

58%

59%

6 1%

62%

S uperma rkets

18%

18%

20%

18%

18%

2 2%

22%

harf discou rt

7%

8%

7%

8%

9%

1 0%

11%

o ther s tores

16%

15%

14%

16%

14%

6%

6%

5000

2000

100

24

20%-30%
10%-15%

2009

2007
21% 16.8%
105191 58%
17%

06
15%

8
3 5.0 %

3 0.0 %
2 5.0 %
2 0.0 %
1 5.0 %
1 0.0 %
5.0 %
0.0 %
2 0 03

20 0 4

2 00 5

20 0 6

2 00 7

9
90%

80%
70%
60%

60%

65%

50%

48%

52%
45%

40%

39%

42%

30%

25%

20%

21%

10%
0%
1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2009

2000
30% 25.4%
07 11.2%

1973

GDP 2003 4 10% GDP

50
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0

4000
2000
0
2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

20
06

6000

20
04

8000

20
02

10000

19
96

19
94

12000

19
92

14000

20
00

16000

11

19
98

10

19
90

10

2009

12
12000

13
250

203.79

10000

200

8000

150

148.27

6000
100

4000
50

2000
0

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2002

2006

14

949800 60%73%90.2%

11

2009

15

16

20%- 30%

12

2009

17
1 10


2
3

4 10%
1

22 50-500 100
8 5%
1% 60%



3

1 400

2 130-40
3
4

18
12

19

2001

2002

10

4
6
3
4

1
0

0
2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2000

2003

2004

13

2009

20 1993

1995

8%-15%

100

25% 13%

14

2009

07 15%
18%-19%

21
25%

22

23.0%

23.1%

23.4%

20%
15%

13.9%

15.0%

13.6%

10%
5%
0%
2005

2006

2007

100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%

TESCO

7 07 478 08 561
20%-30% 30%-40%
20%-25% 15%-25%

15

2009

23

TESCO

07
110
100
85
75
51
37
20
478
111
57
99
76
32
375

07
19
29
15
1
8
4
5
81
13
10
7
17
14
61

08
20
20
10
14
6
8
5
83
15
15
15
20
13
78

18.18%
20.00%
11.76%
18.67%
11.76%
21.62%
25.00%
17.36%
13.51%
26.32%
15.15%
26.32%
40.63%
20.80%

24

96

96

96
TESCO
98

96

99

r
r
r
r200 1
r
r
r 07
r
r
r
r
r
r
r
r
r
r12
r
r
r

04

++
76.15%

16

2009

25

18
6
4
4
12
0
0
0
4
0
0

9
1
9
23
11
3
11
0
2
3
2

12
14
19
11
14
7
3
9
2
5
3

4
2
7
6
3
3
1
2
2
1
1

4
3
0
8
0
0
0
2
4
0
0

2
7
32
7
15
10
4
7
3
1
3

20
12
11
10
0
4
3
3
1
1
3

69
45
82
69
55
27
22
23
18
11
12

30

80

07

5-10

07 2 07
2

12

17

2009

7-9

2-3

5 1-3
3

95
07 112

05 5

56

26Carrefou

2003

2004

20 05

2006

200 7

Hy permarkets

321

464

569

723

848

Su permarkets

10

harf discourt

15

42

56

61

63

totle

336

506

625

784

911

50.60%

23.52%

25.44%

16. 20%

27Carrefour

3000

28 Carrefou
30%

27.7%
2500

25%
20.3%

2000

19.6% 20%

1500

15%

1000

10%

500

5%

0%
2004

2005

2006

2007

50%
45%
40%
35%
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
2004

2005

2006

2007

05 06

18

2009

29Carrefour
CHIN A
Hypermarkets
Supermarkets
Hard Discount stores
Total
SOUT H KOREA
JAPA N
HONG KONG
TAIW AN
INDO NESIA
THAI LAND
MALA YSIA
SING APORE
ASIA
Hypermarkets
Supermarkets
Hard Discount stores
Total

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

14

20

24

24

32

40

14
6

20
12

2
17
6
3
1

4
21
1
7
5
1

4
23
5
9
6
1

24
20
1
0
24
7
11
6
1

24
22
3
0
26
8
15
6
1

32
25
4
0
28
10
17
6
1

55
95
27
7
0
31
11
19
7
2

70
8
225
303
31
0
0
37
20
23
8
2

90
0
255
345
0
0
0
47
29
24
10
2

112

7
3

56
6
164
226
27
8
0
34
15
20
8
2

275
387
0
0
0
48
37
27
12
2

39

59

80

94

105

123

144

238

59

80

94

105

0
123

55
199

191
8
225
424

202

39

170
6
164
340

255
457

275
513

30

1992 7

1992 7- 1995 10
6 5 1 2 51
30

1995 10
51% 30

1996 62 5 1-2
1-2

0 3


65 % 3

0 4 12 11 1 000 30

6000 50

19

2009

31Carrefou

32

20

2009

4 40

2.7 3 4 2.1 2.27


1

2006 15
16.8% 1438 2007 15
18% 1825 28%
54% 70%

TESCO

21

2009

8%-12%
15%

33

2005
7.24%
8.95%
13.42%
18.19%
12.21%

2 006
7.14 %
1 0.63%
1 5.75%
1 9.01%
1 3.26%

2007
8.43%
12.30%
16.54%
21.01%
14.60%

22

2009

60

43%

34

35

9%

43%

48%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

120%

40

31
3.6 4

23

2009

36

1
14.29%
2/
14.20%
3
2.14%

30.87%

0.00%
4
54.40%
5IT
11.61%

66.01%

3.13%
1119.57

24

2009

10 9.6% 10.5%
11.8% 4.7%

37

38
60

100

50

80

40

60

30
40

20
20

10

20
07
-0
20 1
07
-0
3
20
07
-0
5
20
07
-0
20 7
07
-0
9
20
07
-1
20 1
08
-0
1
20
08
-0
20 3
08
-0
5
20
08
-0
20 7
08
-0
9

20
07
-0
1
20
07
-0
20 3
07
-0
5
20
07
-0
7
20
07
-0
9
20
07
-1
1
20
08
-0
20 1
08
-0
3
20
08
-0
5
20
08
-0
7
20
08
-0
9

(20)

(10)
(20)

(40)

39

40

70

40
35
30
25
20
15
10

50
40
30
20
10
0
20
07
-0
1
20
07
-0
3
20
07
-0
5
20
07
-0
7
20
07
-0
9
20
07
-1
1
20
08
-0
1
20
08
-0
3
20
08
-0
5
20
08
-0
7
20
08
-0
9

(10)
(20)

5
0
(5)
(10)

20
07
-0
20 1
07
-0
20 3
07
-0
20 5
07
-0
20 7
07
-0
20 9
07
-1
20 1
08
-0
20 1
08
-0
20 3
08
-0
20 5
08
-0
20 7
08
-0
9

60

25

2009

41/-

42/

25%

35%

30%

20%

25%
15%

20%
15%

10%

10%

5%

5%
0%

20
05
20 -03
05
20 -06
05
20 -09
05
20 -12
06
20 -03
06
20 -06
06
20 -09
06
20 -12
07
20 -03
07
20 -06
07
20 -0 9
07
20 -12
08
20 -03
08
20 -06
08
-0
9

20
05
20 -03
05
20 -06
05
20 -0 9
05
20 -12
06
20 -03
06
20 -06
06
20 -0 9
06
20 -12
07
20 -03
07
20 -06
07
20 -0 9
07
20 -12
08
20 -03
08
20 -06
08
-0
9

0%

-0
9
08

08

-0
7
20

-0
5
20

08
20

08

-0
3

-0
1
20

08

07

-1
1
20

-0
9

-0
7

07
20

07

-0
5
20

07
20

20

07

-0
3

-0
1

-0
9

07

08

20

20

20

08

-0
7

-0
5
08

-0
3

-0
1

08
20

-1
1

08
20

07

07

-0
9
20

20

07

-0
7

-0
5
20

-0
3

07
20

20

07

-0
1
07
20

101
100
99
98
97
96
95
94
93
92
91

20

98
97
96
95
94
93
92
91
90
89

44

20

43

CPI CPI
CPI CPI

CPI

26

2009

45CPI
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0

10
CPI 9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0

2008- 2008- 2008- 2008- 2008- 2008- 2008- 2008- 2008- 200801
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10

11 CPI
CPI 09
1.8 08 4 5%
10%-15%

46

08 2%

27

2009

47
45%
40%

35%
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%

20
08

20
06

20
04

20
02

20
00

19
98

19
96

19
94

19
92

19
90

19
88

19
86

19
84

0%

48
25.0%

20.0%
15.0%
10.0%
5.0%
0.0%
1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

6%8%

28

2009

08
23

CPI
CPI CPI

29

2009

49 CPI
7

CPI YOY

6
5
4
3
2

1
0
2008F

09Q1

1.5

09Q2

09Q3

2.5
1.8

09Q4

2009F

08 1
1 30-40%
08 1

09 1 09 1
30 1
09 23

30

F T
S
E

2009

501987-1991
115

95

75

55

35

15

-5

-25

-45

511987-1990

40

20

-20

-40

-60

31

2009

200 80

07 4.42%

ROE

32

2009

52

21000
2005

2006

2007

2008H

18000
15000

12000
9000
6000

3000

53
%






2003
12.1
12.6
16.6

2004
11.3
12.5
14.8

11.4

11.4
10.8

2005
12.1
11.2
16.1
13.9
12.2
10.9
12.2

2006
12.5
12.1
6.7
13.6
12.0
10.5
13.3

2007
12.8
13.0
7.6
15.0
13.3
11.3
14.6

2008H
13.9
13.4
8.8
14.1
10.3

54/
9%
8%
7%
6%
5%
4%
3%
2%
1%
0%
2003

55/
8%

7.59%

7%
6%

6.00%

5%
4%

3.46%

3%
2%
1%
0%

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008H

2004

2005

2006

2007

33

2009

56

57
%

2004
23.3%
16.9%
64.9%
18.6%

2005
15.5%
31.9%
18.7%
50.9%
31.7%

9.0%
6.1%

18.3%
13.1%

2006
9.9%
14.9%
20.2%
31.7%
15.3%
48.5%
23.3%
11.5%
42.2%

2007
24.5%
10.0%
19.6%
38.0%
9.8%
32.0%
37.4%
25.2%
54.5%

2008H
30.5%
19.6%
25.7%
22.8%
16.0%
33.5%
24.5%
19.5%

2004
89.2%
31.7%
50.8%
46.1%

2005
2.1%
11.2%
21.8%
52.4%
2.5%

50.4%
50.6%

55.5%
33.8%

2006
32.6%
0.8%
38.2%
29.0%
-8.0%
18.3%
67.1%
27.5%
82.9%

2007
25.1%
11.1%
9.2%
41.3%
146.6%
41.4%
53.3%
21.8%
90.0%

2008H
34.0%
62.1%
107.7%
104.4%
-17.9%
52.8%
54.3%
19.2%

58A ROE
50

59H ROE

25

45

20

40
35

15

30
25

10

20
15

10
5
0
2005

2006

2007

20083Q

0
2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008H

34

2009

PE PB

PS

60 PE 09
25.0

20.0

15.0

10.0

5.0

0.0
0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

25.0%

30.0%

35.0%

40.0%

61 PS

WMT US EQUITY
TGT US EQUITY

182.16
207.00
873.99
506.57
265.82
135.18
560.51
484.81
106.88
3922.55
752.78

182.16
182.10
240.93
506.57
150.46
35.00
531.35
360.32
26.80
2209.21
750.71

2008-12-1
2.42
9.3
2.25
6.23
7.96
36.39
8.67
5.68
15.8
53.01
29.54

PS
08
0.06
0.09
0.47
0.35
0.08
0.89
0.56
0.31
0.73
0.55
0.35

09
0.05
0.08
0.39
0.30
0.07
0.69
0.46
0.26
0.54
0.51
0.34

PS

35

2009

62

63

560.51
265.82
135.18
484.81
106.88

531.35
150.46
35.00
360.32
26.80

11-28
8.58
7.57
35.21
5.38
14.52

2007
0.268
0.714
1.314
0.417
0.91

EPS
2008
0.316
0.525
1.352
0.347
0.675

2009
0.397
0.604
1.628
0.375
0.896

2007
50.1
21.19
N/A
60.05
N/A

PE
2008
27.15
14.42
26.04
15.50
21.51

2009
21.61
12.53
21.62
14.36
16.21

36

2009

612 20%
612 10%20%
612 -10%10%
612 10%20%
612 20%

36 5%
36 -5%5%
36 5%

37

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