Recap of Last Class

MATH 1050Y
A Non-Calculus Based Introduction to Probability & Statistical Methods
Section A FW 2012-13 Instructor: Jaclyn Semple

1. A sample of 50 patients is selected from

all the patients admitted to the ER at a hospital, and it is found that 28% have no health insurance. The value 28% is a:

A. B.

Parameter Statistic

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Recap of Last Class

2. Telephone area codes best fits the data
category of:
A. B. C. D. E. Qualitative, nominal Qualitative, ordinal Quantitative, discrete, ratio Quantitative, discrete, interval Quantitative, continuous, ratio

Recap of Last Class

3. Annual incomes of nurses best fits the data
category of:

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A. B. C. D. E.

Qualitative, nominal Qualitative, ordinal Quantitative, discrete, ratio Quantitative, continuous, interval Quantitative, continuous, ratio

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Recap of Last Class

4. A pollster in Saskatchewan surveys 200
people and asks them their preference of political party. She codes the responses as 0 (for Green), 1 (for Liberal), 2 (for NDP), 3 (for Conservative). She then calculates the average and gets 1.78. How can this value be interpreted? Discuss with your neighbour

Chapter 1
Introduction to Statistics
1-1 Overview 1-2 The Nature of Data 1-3 Uses and Abuses of Statistics 1-4 Design of Experiments

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Abuses of Statistics
Data can often be presented in ways that may be misleading. Some abuses of statistics are unintentional, such as people who are ignorant or careless. In other cases, the abuses of statistics are intentionally in order to support personal objectives. We should learn to distinguish between statistical conclusions that are likely to be valid and those that are seriously flawed.

Bad Samples
A major source of deceptive statistics is inappropriate methods of collecting data. One very common sampling method allows the sample subjects to decide for themselves whether to be included. A self-selected sample is one in which the respondents themselves decide whether to be included. In this case, valid conclusions can be made only about the specific group of people who agree to participate and not about the population.
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Small Samples
We will see later that small samples are not necessarily a bad thing. However, small samples are sometimes used as a form of statistical lying. Example: The preferences of only 10 dentists should not be used as a basis for a generalized claim such as Colgate toothpaste is recommended by 7 out of 10 dentists. Samples small or large must be unbiased and representative of the population from which it comes.
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Precise Numbers
Sometimes the numbers themselves can be deceptive. A very precise figure can often be misinterpreted as being accurate.

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Example: A sample of 2500 students from a Canadian university produced an average salary of $25,542.64. A precise figure can be an estimate (sample statistic) rather than a population parameter. When it is an estimate, this fact should be emphasized to avoid confusion.
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Guesstimates
Some estimates are really just guesses and can be in error by substantial amounts. As such, it is important for us to consider the source of the estimate and how it was developed. Example: Your friend asks you How many people were at the party on Saturday? You answer, About 30 people. However, you didnt actually count the number of people at the party. Also, you were only there for one hour and the party lasted for six hours.
MATH 1050Y-A (FW 2012-13)

Distorted Percentages
Misleading or unclear percentages are sometimes used. Example: An airline ran full-page ads boasting that, with respect to lost baggage, they had improved 100% in the last six months. Many people would incorrectly interpret this to mean that now no baggage is being lost.

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Partial Pictures
Data can be presented in such a way as to omit an important piece of information. Example: In the 1950s, Camel brand cigarettes aired a commercial indicating that they asked thousands of doctors the question What cigarette do you smoke, Doctor? Based on the answers to this question, they were able to claim More doctors smoke Camels than any other brand of cigarette. What they failed to mention is what percentage of doctors in their sample actually smoked cigarettes or didnt respond.
MATH 1050Y-A (FW 2012-13)

Partial Pictures contd

Example: A car company advertises that Ninety percent of all our cars sold in this country in the last ten years are still on the road. BUT they didnt mention that almost all of those cars had been sold within just the last three years!

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Deliberate Distortion
Some studies or surveys are distorted on purpose. The distortion can occur within the context of the data, the source of the data, the sampling method, or the conclusions. Example: A website catering to dog owners posts an online survey to determine the most popular type of pet.

Loaded Questions
If survey questions are not worded carefully, the results of a study can be misleading. Survey questions can be loaded or intentionally worded to elicit a desired response. Example: The percentage of people who agree with the statement Too little money is being spent on welfare. would tend to be much lower than the percentage who agree with the statement Too little money is being spent on assistance to the poor.

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Misleading Graphs

Pictographs

To correctly interpret a graph, you must analyze the numerical information given in the graph, so as not to be misled by the graphs shape. Read labels and units on the axes!
MATH 1050Y-A (FW 2012-13)

Diagram (b) is designed to exaggerate the difference by increasing each dimension in proportion to the actual amounts of oil consumption.
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Pause & Practice

1.
Youve been hired to research recognition of the Roots brand name, and you must conduct a telephone survey of 1500 customers in Canada. This is an example of:
A. B. C. D. E.
Distorted percentages Guesstimates Bad sample Precise numbers Misleading graphs

Pause & Practice

2.
A report sponsored by British Columbia fruit farmers concluded that cholesterol levels can be lowered by eating fruit products. Do you trust this conclusion?
A. B.
Yes No

Discuss with your neighbour why this conclusion might be suspect.

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Pause & Practice

3.
Sixty-eight percent of those who responded to a Toronto Star poll question said that the provincial government should change the law to make it easier to get squeegee kids off the streets. Do you think this result valid?
A. B.
Yes No

Pause & Practice

4.
An East Coast newspaper claims that pregnant mothers can increase their chances of having healthy babies by eating lobster. That claim is based on a study showing that babies born to lobster-eating mothers have fewer health problems than babies born to mothers who dont eat lobsters. Do you find anything wrong with this claim? A. Yes B. No Discuss with your neighbour.
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Discuss the validity of this result with your neighbour.

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Pause & Practice

5.
A researcher at the Sloan-Kettering Cancer Research Center was once criticized for falsifying data. Among his data were figures obtained from 6 groups of mice, with 20 mice per group. The following values were given for the percentage of successes in each group: 53%, 58%, 63%, 46%, 48%, 67%. Whats wrong here? Discuss with your neighbour

Coming up
Assignment #1 is posted Due Sept. 18th in seminar Reminder: seminar hours start tomorrow No quiz this week Next class: 1-4 Design of Experiments

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