Commodities Evening Update

Thursday | February 21, 2013

International Commodities

Content
Days overview Market Highlights Outlook Important Events for Today

Overview:

Research Team
Nalini Rao - Sr. Research Analyst nalini.rao@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn. 6135

Anish Vyas - Research Analyst anish.vyas@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn. 6104

Angel Commodities Broking Pvt. Ltd. Registered Office: G-1, Ackruti Trade Centre, Rd. No. 7, MIDC, Andheri (E), Mumbai - 400 093. Corporate Office: 6th Floor, Ackruti Star, MIDC, Andheri (E), Mumbai - 400 093. Tel: (022) 2921 2000 MCX Member ID: 12685 / FMC Regn No: MCX / TCM / CORP / 0037 NCDEX : Member ID 00220 / FMC Regn No: NCDEX / TCM / CORP / 0302

Disclaimer: The information and opinions contained in the document have been compiled from sources believed to be reliable. The company does not warrant its accuracy, completeness and correctness. The document is not, and should not be construed as an offer to sell or solicitation to buy any commodities. This document may not be reproduced, distributed or published, in whole or in part, by any recipient hereof for any purpose without prior permission from Angel Commodities Broking (P) Ltd. Your feedback is appreciated on commodities@angelbroking.com

Commodities Evening Update

Thursday | February 21, 2013

International Commodities
News and Analysis French Flash Manufacturing PMI stood at 43.6 levels in February. US SPDR Gold Trust fund witnessed biggest outflow of 20.77 tonnes in one day. German Flash Manufacturing PMI rose to 50.1 levels in February. Flash Manufacturing PMI of the Euro zone fell to 47.8 levels in February European markets are trading on a bearish note taking cues from unfavorable data from the Euro zone region which diminished hopes of early recovery in the region. US Index Futures and Asian shares declined. There were also risk aversion witnessed on the back of concerns that US Federal Reserve might discontinue its bond buying program or reduce it. Spot gold prices are trading 0.3 percent higher due to short coverings by the market participants after a sharp fall. Prices traded in the negative territory in early part of the day due to worries that the US Federal Reserve might discontinue monthly bond buying program of the nation. This created risk aversion and exerted downside pressure on the gold prices. Strength in the DX also acted as bearish factor for the gold prices. In the domestic market, prices of gold on MCX are trading lower 0.3 percent taking cues from fall in the spot gold prices. However, depreciation in the rupee cushioned fall in the MCX gold prices. Spot silver prices are also trading in the negative terrain down 0.2 percent. Weakness in the base metal pack along with strength in the DX is also acting a bearish factor for the spot silver prices. In the domestic market, silver prices on MCX are trading lower tracking fall in the spot silver prices.Depreciation in the rupee cushioned fall in the prices. The base metals complex are trading lower due to worries that Chinese government might announce measures to curb rise in the property prices. Strength in the DX along with worries that the US Federal Reserve might discontinue its bond buying program also added to the losses in the base metals prices. Copper prices are trading 1.43 percent lower due to risk aversion resulting from worries that US Federal Reserve is likley to stop or reduce the stimulus measures. Strength in the DX also weighed on the prices. Rise in the LME Copper inventories also acted a bearish factor for the red metal prices. Copper prices on MCX traced weakness in the international prices. Nymex crude oil prices are trading 0.7 percent lower due to risk aversion amongst the market participants caused by concerns that US Federal Reserve might curb stimulus measures announced sooner than expected. Strength in the DX also weighed on oil prices. Depreciation in the Indian rupee however, restricted fall in the crude oil prices on MCX. Performance during the day
Index Nifty Sensex Nikkei Kospi FTSE Open 5909.65 19549.05 11404.73 2014.50 16376.30 High 5921.15 19554.65 11442.11 2021.24 16390.84

as at 4.30 pm 21 February 13
Low 5844.40 19289.70 11301.77 2010.91 16010.27 Last 5852.25 19325.36 11309.13 2015.22 16010.27 % Chg from Prev day -1.53 -1.62 -1.39 -0.47 -3.12
Source: Reuters

as at 4.30 pm 21 February 13
Currency Dollar Index Euro/$ Spot INR/$ Spot Open 81.18 1.3279 54.075 High 81.57 1.329 54.61 Low 81.125 1.3176 54.075 Current 81.57 1.3187 54.505 % Chg from Prev day 0.51 -0.70 0.80
Source: Reuters

as at 4.30 pm 21 February 13
Commodity Spot Gold Comex Gold Mar13 MCX Gold Apr13 Spot Silver Comex Silver Mar13 MCX Silver Mar 13 Crude Oil Nymex Apr 13 ICE -Brent Crude Oil* MCX Crude Oil Mar 13 Copper LME - 3 Month MCX Copper Feb13 Zinc LME - 3 Month Zinc MCX - Feb13 Lead LME - 3 Month Lead MCX - Feb13 Nickel LME - 3 Month Nickel MCX Feb13 Aluminum LME - 3 Month Aluminum MCX Feb13 Unit Open High Low Last % Chg from Prev day

$/oz $/oz Rs/10g ms $/oz $/oz Rs/kg $/bbl $/bbl Rs/bbl $/tonne Rs/kg $/tonne Rs/kg $/tonne Rs/kg $/tonne Rs/kg $/tonne Rs/kg

1562.70 1568.50 29551 28.53 28.23 53671 94.72 115.20 5161 7965.00 431.50 2135.00 114.60 2347 126.80 17000 922.20 2101.75 111.95

1571.06 1570.00 29551 28.78 28.445 53687 94.92 115.31 5167 7968.00 431.90 2138.00 114.60 2347 126.80 17037 922.20 2102.00 111.95

1554.49 1554.50 29263 28.30 28.445 53077 93.55 114.30 5125 7850.00 427.85 2095.00 113.35 2300 124.85 16600 903.50 2068.50 111

1567.46 1568.00 29493 28.47 28.445 53498 93.83 114.53 5138 7850.00 428.50 2098.50 113.60 2305 125.15 16617 905.2 2072.00 111.20

0.33 -0.61 -0.29 -0.21 -0.59 -0.41 -0.67 -0.93 -0.5 -1.43 -0.86 -1.76 -1.09 -2.21 -1.7 -2.58 -1.98 -1.56 -0.80

Source: Reuters.

Commodities Evening Update

Thursday | February 21, 2013

International Commodities
Outlook In the evening session, we expect precious, base metals and crude oil prices to trade with negative bias owing to risk aversion amongst the market participants resulting from the concerns that US Federal Reserve might discontinue or slow the bond buying program. Strength in the DX is likely to add to the losses in the commodities. Expecation of rise in the US crude oil inventories iwould also act as a bearish factor for the crude oil prices.

Technical Outook for evening session 21 February 13 ( CMP as of 5.00 pm)

Commodity Gold April '13 Spot Gold Silver Mar13 Spot Silver Brent Crude Mar13 Crude Oil Mar13 Nymex Crude Oil Apr13 Natural Gas Feb13 LME Copper Copper Feb 13 Zinc Feb13 Lead Feb13 Aluminum Feb13 Nickel Feb13 Unit Rs/10 gm $/oz Rs /kg $/oz $/bbl Rs /bbl $/bbl Rs /mmBtu $/tonne Rs /kg Rs /kg Rs /kg Rs /kg Rs /kg Support 2 28984 1532 52593 27.81 6204 5046 92.25 175.2 7796 425.6 112.6 123.7 110.05 895 Support 1 29270 1554 53048 28.16 6240 5115 93.5 176.8 7835 427.2 113.3 124.8 111 900.8 CMP 29478 1569.5 53510 28.52 6251 5133 93.82 177.6 7854 428.1 113.55 125.05 111.15 905.2 Resistance1 29591 1578 53890 28.81 6292 5208 95.2 179.7 7940 432.2 114.6 126.8 112.25 918.5 Resistance 2 29825 1596 54605 29.36 6324 5246 95.9 181.6 8005 434.2 115.2 127.4 113.3 929

Important Events for Today

Indicator FOMC Meeting Minutes French Flash Manufacturing PMI French Flash Services PMI German Flash Manufacturing PMI German Flash Services PMI Flash Manufacturing PMI Flash Services PMI Public Sector Net Borrowing Spanish 10-y Bond Auction CBI Industrial Order Expectations Core CPI m/m Unemployment Claims CPI m/m Flash Manufacturing PMI Existing Home Sales Philly Fed Manufacturing Index Mortgage Delinquencies Natural Gas Storage Crude Oil Inventories FOMC Member Bullard Speaks Country US EU EU EU EU EU EU UK EU UK US US US US US US US US US US Time (IST) 12:30 am 1:30 pm 1:30 pm 2:00 pm 2:00 pm 2:30 pm 2:30 pm 3:00 pm 3:00 pm 4:30 pm 7:00 pm 7:00 pm 7:00 pm 7:30 pm 8:30 pm 8:30 pm 21st-24th 9:00 pm 9:30 pm 11:00 pm Actual 43.6 42.7 50.1 54.1 47.8 47.3 -9.9B 5.20|1.6 Forecast 43.9 44.5 50.4 55.5 48.4 49.2 -11.3B -16 0.2% 361K 0.1% 55.6 4.91M 0.7 -119B 1.9M Previous 42.9 43.6 49.8 55.7 47.9 48.6 13.2B 5.29|2.3 -20 0.1% 341K 0.0% 55.8 4.94M -5.8 7.40% -157B 0.6M Impact High Medium Medium High Medium Medium Medium Medium High Medium High High Medium Medium High High Medium Low Medium Medium