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Last week:Error 1 Error analysis with latent constructs Path 2 Error 3 = Structural Equation Modelling
1 1 1
Pain
Pain
Pain
1
Depression
Depression
Function
Function
Function
Depression
Last week:
Measurement model
1 4
2 5
3 1. Observed variables 6 7 2. Unobserved variables 3. Drawing latent variable (draws latent variable and items) 4. Drawing path (causal relationship regression)
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Pain
1
8 9
8 10
5. Draw covariances (correlation, no direction) 6. Unique variable (error variable, add e.g. to each dependent var
Depression
11 12 13 14 15 16
7. List variables (open data file first, then drag and drop variabl 8. Select one object, select all, deselect 9. Move object 10.Delete
Function
1
Structural model
13.Calculate estimates (starts the analysis) 14.View test (see results) 15.Copy graph in clipboard 16.Save
pain
depress
Unidirectional path (regression) Correlation between variables Reciprocal relation between variables
pain
error
1
depress
function
Today
Variance, covariance, correlation and regression coefficients SEM/path analysis is based on covariance matrix The Logic of Model Testing in SEM Model fit and model comparisons Simple latent trait models
Exercise
Do a similar analysis as last week with data file: PATHINGRAM.sav. The data are from: Ingram, K. L., Cope, J. G., Harju, B. L., & Wuensch, K. L. (2000). Applying to graduate school: A test of the theory of planned behavior. Journal of Social Behavior and Personality, 15, 215-226. Ajzens theory of planned behavior was used to predict students intentions and application behaviour (to graduate school) from their attitudes, subjective norms and perceived behavioural control.
Exercise
Draw the path diagram for the model (Conduct a path analysis with a series of multiple regression analyses using SPSS.) (Calculate the standardised indirect effects using the standardised estimates from the regression analysis.) Check your results using AMOS Use a bootstrap analysis to evaluate the indirect effect. Remove some indirect effects and compare the results with the theoretical model.
e1
1
e2
1
Subjective Norm
Intention
Behavior
Attitude
Results
Perceived Behavior Control
-.13 .51 .60 .35 .34
Estimate <--<--<--<--<--PBC SubNorm Attitude Intent PBC -.126 .095 .807 .350 .336
Upper
e2
.126 .293 .314 .430 .985 .002 .548 .013 .555 .005
.67
Subjective Norm
.09
Intention
Behavior
SubNorm .033
PBC -.044
Intent .000
Attitude
How do we know that this model fits the data well? Are there better models? How can we compare two or more models? First we need to know a little bit about covariances
SEM and path analysis are based on variances and covariances . Variance is a measure of the dispersion of data. It indicates how values are spread around the mean. Covariance is a measure of the covariation between two variables, such as pain and function.
120
110
100
(Xi X )
Var ( X ) =
i =1
2
score
90
80
N 1
70
60
50
40
group
Centering
We centre both variables = subtracting the mean from each individual score. We get a mean of 0 but same distribution around the mean and same variance Removes the constant in a regression and makes life easier for us.
30 20
Descriptive Statistics N pain function c_pain c_function Valid N (listwise) 50 50 50 50 50 Mean 49.45 74.65 .00 .00 Std. Deviation 4.482 12.530 4.482 12.530 Variance 20.084 157.012 20.084 157.012
10
c_score
-10
-20
group
20
10
c_function
-10
-30 -10 -5 0 5 10
c_pain
Covariance
The covariance is an unstandardised measure of association between two variables. measure of the degree to which x and y vary together In our example the covariance between pain and function is 32. This means if pain increases by 1 unit of variance (Variance of pain = 20), function will increase by 32:
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( X i X )(Yi Y )
Cov( X , Y ) =
i =1
N 1
20
10
c_function
32
-10
-30 -10 -5 0 5 10
c_pain
Covariance matrix
The covariance of variable X with itself is :
Corrrelation
The correlation coefficient r is a standardised measure of the association between two variables with a range from [-1,+1]:
( X i X )( X i X )
Cov ( X , X ) =
i =1
N 1
= Var ( X )
Covariance matrix of pain and function: Pain Pain Function 20 32 Function 32 157
cov( X , Y ) cov( X , Y ) = = var( X ) * var(Y ) sd ( X ) * sd (Y ) -1 = perfect negative association 0 = no association (random) +1 = perfect positive association If we standardise X and Y to new variables Zx and Zy to have a mean of 0 and a variance of 1 , then the Cov(Zx, Zy)=Corr(X,Y). Corr ( X , Y ) =
(= Variance/Covariance matrix)
If we assume that variable X (pain) influences variable Y (function), then we can describe the relationship by a regression equation:
y = c + b* x c=0 y = b* x
We can estimate the regression coefficient b by (based on the least squared method):
Cov( X , Y ) b= Var( X )
Example
Whats the regression coefficient b for the regression equation: function=b*pain? V/CV Pain Function Pain 20 32 Function 32 157
Question
If we assume that function influences pain what will be b? (pain = b*function)
V/CV Pain Function Pain 20 Function 32 157
Cov( X , Y ) = Cov( pain, function ) = 32.25 = 0.205 b= Var (Y ) Var ( function) 157
Coefficients a Unstandardized Coefficients B Std. Error -3E-012 .524 .205 .042 Standardized Coefficients Beta .574
Model 1
(Constant) c_pain
Model 1
(Constant) c_function
t .000 4.858
Optional
How to calculate the partial correlation (partial covariance) and partial beta for standardised data simply from the correlation matrix (= covariance matrix for standardised data).
Find the correlation between pain and depression while partialling out the effect of function.
rpain,depr| funct = rpain,depr rpain, funct * rdepr , funct (1 r 2 pain, funct )(1 r 2 depr , funct )
Correlationmatrix pain pain depress function **. 1 .337** -.455** depress .337** 1 -.421** function -.455** -.421** 1
rpain,depr| funct =
Similar partial regression coefficients can be obtained from the Variance/Covariance matrix.
pain
depress
x1 =
ry , x1 ry , x 2 rx1, x 2 1 rx21, x 2
x2 =
ry , x 2 ry , x1rx1, x 2 1 rx21, x 2
Correlation matrix
If we use the correlation matrix instead of the covariance matrix, we would obtain the standardised beta coefficients. Knowing the variances of the original data allows to calculate the unstandardised regression coefficients form the correlation matrix. In general, correlation matrices may lead to imprecise parameter estimates and standard errors in complex models and variance/covariance matrices are preferred.
Aim of SEM
The aim of SEM is often to find a model with the smallest necessary number of parameters which still adequately describes the observed covariance structure (reconstructed or estimated covariance matrix based upon our theoretical model should resemble the observed covariance matrix). How do we know that a model is a good model and fits the data?
error2
-.455 .337 1.000 -.421 1.000
1
function
0,
error
1
depress
(PF)= -0.46 (direct effect of Pain on Function) (FD) = r(FD)r(PF)= -0.46* -0.42 = 0.192 (indirect effect of pain on depression via function)
.21
-.46
error2
FD = rFD = -0.42 (direct effect of function on depression) All variances are 1 (standardized).
function
-.42
error
.18
depress
Is the expected correlation matrix very different from the observed matrix (the more similar the better the model)? e.g. 2 goodness of fit test: 2 = (rij(o) ij(e))2/ij(e))
Conclusion
Next step: If our model variance/covariance matrix fits the observed data well, we can calculate the path regression coefficients and error variances from the matrix. In our simple example (without partial coefficients) correlation coefficients and standardised betas are identical. Again, all we need is the covariance matrix! Path coefficients can be estimated using multiple regression methods (standardized partial coefficients) based upon a given model and can be used to reconstruct the correlation (or covariance) matrix. The estimated (reconstructed or expected) correlations can be compared with the observed correlations and a chi-square will show whether it fits. Important: a non-significant chi-square denotes good fit: The more similar observed and expected correlations, the smaller the Chi-square, the better the model.
2 =
pain
-.46
error2
.21
function
-.42
error
.18
depress
Our model is significant different from the observed covariance matrix. Therefore, it does not adequately describe the observed relationships in our data!
Many other measures of model fit, each with their own assumptions and limitations, are developed.
GLS
Y
ULS
N
SLS
N
Y >100
Y >100
N >100
Y >100
Y 1.5*p(p+1)
(p=observed variables)
Y Y
Y N
N N
N N
Y N
Standardise variables
Same visual inspection as for multiple regression: look at histogramms, QQ plots, Boxplots
What is bootstrapping
Simulation studies (see Kline 1998: 209) suggest that under conditions of severe non-normality of data, SEM parameter estimates (ex., path estimates) are still fairly accurate but corresponding significance coefficients are too high. use bootstrap tests if possible
Bootstrapping is a way of estimating standard error, confidence intervals and significance based not on assumptions of normality but on empirical resampling with replacement of the data. It has minimum assumptions: It is merely based on the assumption that the sample is a good representation of the unknown population We assume that the observed data resemble the true distribution. generates information on the variability of parameter estimates or of fit indexes based on the empirical samples, not on assumptions about probability theory of normal distributions. Bootstrapping in SEM still requires moderately large samples. If data are multivariate normal, MLE will give less biased estimates. However, if data lack multivariate normality, bootstrapping gives less biased estimates.
Frequency
The general bootstrap algorithm 1. Generate a sample of size n from your data set with replacement. 2. Compute your paramter of interest for this bootstrap sample (e.g. do a SEM analysis and get a regression coefficent b) For each random sample we get a different parameter estimate. 3. Repeat steps 1 and 2, 1000 time. By this procedure we end up with 1000 bootstrap values = (1, 2, . . . , 1000 ). Sort the bootstrap values from smallest to largest. Using the sorted 1, 2, . . . , 1000 values, find the 2.5% ile value and the 97.5% ile value. Or simply the 25th and 975th observations from the sorted 1000 values. Calculate the standard deviation of the 1000 1s. This is the estimate of the standard error (se) of your parameter estimate b. An approximate 2 sided 95% confidence interval is: B 1.96(SE). Test statistic z=B/SE. If z>1.96, then p<0.05
Chi2 Test
P>0.2
Compare model with saturated, full model (e.g. all paths) or compare two nested models Compare model with saturated, full model (e.g. all paths) or compare two nested models
Use ADF estimation as a robust alternative. Use other goodness of fit measures to evaluate models Violations will tend to underestimate standard errors of parameter estimates, which causes regression paths or covariances are found to be statistically significant more often than they should be (Type II error). If possible use bootstrap tests and confidence intervals.
P>0.2
robust method, does not assume multinormal distribution, sample size dependent CMIN/DF in AMOS Chi2 /degress of freedom
2.5
P>0.2
Not in AMOS
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Goodness of fit measures based on predicted and observed covariance matrix but penalizes for lack of parsimony (overfitting)
Goodness of fit measure Root mean square error of approximation (RMSE, RMR) Parsimony ratio (PRATIO) Parsimony Index >0.9 0.5 Discrepancy per df ( Least affected by sample size, penalizes for lack of parsimony, compare different models (but information criteria better)
>0.9 0.9 Similar interpretation as CFI:0.9= model is 90% away from saturated model Similar to CFI but more robust but underestimates fit if N is small Similar to NFI but penalizes for model complexity and little affected by sample size,
Df model/df independence PRATIO * BBI PRATIO * NNFI PRATIO * CFI Not in AMOS (?), Smaller is better Smaller is better
0.90.95
Problem
May select more complex models
Selection criteria
Penalizes for lack of parsimony
Idea/Philosophy
Smallest AIC of a set of model is most likely the best model (not the true model)
Penalizes for sample Smallest model is size and lack of most likely the true parsimony model among the set of models Penalizes for sample ? size and lack of parsimony, penalty greater than AIC and BIC
x=\agfi
0, .37 4.93, 4.08
depress
pain
error
1 0, .15 -.10 3.25
.448
error2
1 -.65 3.10
depress
C.R.
depress
function
.000
Residual matrices suggests that depression and pain is not adequately modelled
depress
.000
11
Exercise
Check the model fit of Ajzens theoretical model Try to find a better model (remove unnecaissary paths, include necaissary path based e.g. on chi2 tests for nested models, residual covariance matrix, critical ratio, AIC, RMSE)
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Select View/Set, Analysis Properties, Output tab and check "Tests for normality and outliers."
Assessment of normality (Group number 1)
Example: simple factor analysis: Can we reduce the three variables into one factor (latent variable) without loosing too much information? = Factor analysis with Maximum likelihood estimation
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.36
.31
.57
pain
Factor Matrixa Factor 1 .604 .558 -.754
depress
.60 .56 -.75
function
e2
1
e3
1
Well-being
Well-being
Latent variable models are a broad subclass of latent structure models . They postulate some relationship between the statistical properties of observable variables (or "manifest variables", or "indicators") and latent variables. A special kind of statistical Latent analysis corresponds to each kind of the latent variable models.
Categori cal Manifest Metrical Factor Latent analysis profile models analysis Categori Latent Latent cal/(Ordi trait class nal) analysis analysis Analysis of
Metrical
Multivariate outlier: an extreme combination, like juvenile with a high income. Observations farthest from the centroid under assumptions of multinormality. Mahalanobis distance is the most common measure used for multivariate outliers. the higher Malanobis d-squared distance for a case, the more likely to be a outlier under assumptions of normality. The cases are listed in descending order of Mahalanobis d2. Check if cases with the highest d-squared as possible (but not necaissarily) outliers. Consider cases as outliers if the MD are well seperated from other M. distances (Arbuckle and Wothke1999) .
ML estimation requires indicator variables with multivariate normal distribution and valid specification of the model; Ordinal variables are widely used in practice: If ordinal data are used, they should have at least five categories and not be strongly skewed.
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Assumption of parametric tests Check assumptions as in any multivariable or multivariate analysis, see:
http://www2.chass.ncsu.edu/garson/pa765/assumpt.htm Brian Everitt and Graham Dunn (2001) Applied multivariate data analysis. Arnold Barbara G. Tabachnick and Linda S. Fidell (2001). Using Multivariate Statistics, Fourth Edition. Needham Heights, MA: Allyn & Bacon.)
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