Professional Documents
Culture Documents
2 1
Points Of Central Tendency: Mean
Geometric Mean
e.x.: Biological growth, Population growth
Measure of Central Tendency
Mode
The Most frequently occurring
score is identified.
Data on nominal, ordinal,
interval and ratio
Median
The midpoint of the data Ordinal, interval, and ratio
Arithmetic
mean
All scores are added and the sum
is divided by the number of scores
Interval and ration
Geometric
mean
All scores are multiplied together,
and the nth root of their product is
computed.
Ratio scales
Measures of Variability
How great is the Spread?
Range=Highest Score-Lowest score
the quartiles: The pth percentile of a distribution is the value
such that p percent of the observations fall at or below it.
The 50th percentile = median, M
The 25th percentile = first quartile, Q1
The 75th percentile = third quartile, Q3
Interquartile: Quartile 3- Quartile 1
Example:
13 13 16 19 21 21 23 23 24 26 26 27 27 27 28 28 30 30
M=?, Q
1
=?, Q
3
=?
Measures of Variability
2
1
1
1
|
|
.
|
\
|
=
=
n
i
i
x x
n
s
Standard Devastation
standardized score
o
=
x
z
Measure of Relationship: Correlation
correlation indicates the strength and direction of a linear
relationship between two variables.
See page 266 for other examples or correlation statistics
Notes about Correlation
Substantial correlations between two
characteristics needs reasonable Validity and
Reliability in measuring
Correlation does not indicate causation
Examples of using Statistics in
Computer Science
Conceptual Representation of User Transactions or Sessions
A B C D E F
user0 15 5 0 0 0 185
user1 0 0 32 4 0 0
user2 12 0 0 56 236 0
user3 9 47 0 0 0 134
user4 0 0 23 15 0 0
user5 17 0 0 157 69 0
user6 24 89 0 0 0 354
user7 0 0 78 27 0 0
user8 7 0 45 20 127 0
user9 0 38 57 0 0 15
Session/user
data
Pageview/objects
Inferential Statistics
We use the samples as estimate of population parameter.
The quality of all statistical analysis depends on the quality of
the sample data
Sample
Population
Random Sampling: every unit in the
population has an equal chance to be
Chosen
A random sample should represent the
population well, so sample statistics
from a random sample should provide
reasonable estimates of population parameters
Some definitions
Parameter: describes a population
Statistic: describes a sample
Sample statistics Population parameter
Sample mean x
Sample proportion p P
Sample variance s
2
o
2
Sample number n
N
A parameter is a characteristic or quality of a population that in concept is
constant ,however, its value is variable.
example: radius is a parameter in a circle
Inferential Statistics
Estimate a population parameter from a
random sample
Test statistically hypotheses
Inferential Statistics: Estimate a
Population Parameter from Sample
All sample statistics have some error in estimating population parameters
Example: estimate mean height of 10 year old boys in Chicago, Sample:200 boys
How close the sample mean is to the population mean?
we dont know but we know:
The mean from an infinite number of samples form a normal distribution.
The population mean equals the average (mean) of all samples.
The Standard deviation of sample distribution ( standard error) is directly
related to the std of the characteristic in question for the overall
population.
Standard Error
Standard error tell us how much the particular mean vary from one
sample to another when all samples are the same size and drawn
randomly from the sample population.
Standard Error:
n is size of all samples and is the population std which we dont have!
We use the std of sample:
n
M
o
o =
1
=
n
s
M
o
Accuracy of the Estimator
As in many problems, there
is a trade off between
accuracy and dollars.
What we will get from
our money if we invest
dollars in obtaining a larger
size?
n = 100?
n = 200?
Point versus Interval Estimate
A point estimate is a single value--a point--taken from a sample and used to estimate the
corresponding parameter of a population
, s, s2 and r estimate , , 2, respectively
An interval estimate is a range of values--an interval within whose limits a
population parameter probably lies.
we say that we are 95% confident that the unknown population mean lies in the interval
X
(x -2o/(n
1/2
), x+2 o/(n
1/2
))
95% confidence interval for .
In only 5% of all samples,
the sample mean x is not in the above interval,
that is 5% of all samples give inaccurate results.
Testing Hypothesis
Confidence intervals are used when the goal of our analysis is to
estimate an unknown parameter in the population.
A second goal of a statistical analysis is to verify some claim about
the population on the basis of the data.
Research Hypothesis =/=Statistical hypothesis
A test of significance is a procedure to assess the truth about a
hypothesis using the observed data. The results of the test are
expressed in terms of a probability that measures how well the data
support the hypothesis.
Sample values: The sample average of nicotine = 1.51 mlg
The standard deviation = 1.016.
The estimated amount of nicotine is 1.51mlg, based on the sample values.
The standard error of the sample average is
S.E.=s.d./sqrt(n-1)=0.045
I s there an actual difference between the sample value (1.51mlg) and the
advertised value (1.4 mlg)? Or is it just due to sampling error?
To answer this question we need a Test of Significance:
Example
To determine whether the mean nicotine content of a brand of cigarettes is
greater than the advertised value of 1.4 milligrams, a health advocacy group
takes a sample of 500 cigarettes and measures the amount of nicotine in the
sample.
Stating an hypotheses
The null hypothesis H
0
expresses the idea that the observed difference is
due to chance. It is a statement of no effect or no difference, and is
expressed in terms of the population parameter.
Let denote the true average amount of nicotine. H
0
: =1.4mlg
The alternative hypothesis H
a
represents the idea that the difference is real. It
is expressed as the statement we hope or suspect is true instead of the null
hypothesis.
The alternative hypothesis states that the cigarettes contain a higher
amount of nicotine, that is: H
a
: > 14mlg
General comments on stating hypotheses
It is not easy to state the null and the alternative hypothesis!
The hypotheses are statements on the population values.
The alternative hypothesis Ha is often called researcher hypothesis,
because it is the hypothesis we are interested about.
A significance test is a test against the null hypothesis
Often we set Ha first and then Ho is defined as the opposite
statement!
Errors in Hypothesis testing
Type I Error : the null hypothesis is rejected when it is in fact true; that is,
H0 is wrongly rejected.
Type II Error :the null hypothesis H0, is not rejected when it is in fact false
Meta- Analysis
Meta-analysis refers to the analysis of analyses...the statistical
analysis of a large collection of analysis results from individual
studies for the purpose of integrating the findings. (Glass, 1976, p. 3)
Conduct a fairly extensive search for relevant studies
Identify appropriate studies to include in meta-analysis
Convert each studys results to a common statistical index
Using Statistical Software Packages
SPSS
SAS
Matlab Statistics toolbox
SYSTAT, Minitab, Stat View, Statistica
Interpreting the Data
Relating the findings to the original research problem and to the
specific research questions and hypothesis
Relating the findings to preexisting literature, concepts, theories and
research results.
Determining whether the findings have practical significance as well
as statistical significance
Identifying limitations of the study